Analysis of Potential for Critical Metal Resource Constraints in the International Energy Agency’s Long-Term Low-Carbon Energy Scenarios

Unlocking Dysprosium Constraints for China's 1.5 °C Climate Target

Some key low-carbon technologies, ranging from wind turbines to electric vehicles, are underpinned by the strong rare-earth-based permanent magnets of the Nd, Pr (Dy)-Fe-Nb type (NdFeB). These NdFeB magnets, which are sensitive to demagnetization with temperature elevation (the Curie point), require the addition of variable amounts of dysprosium (Dy), where an elevation of the Curie point is needed to meet operational conditions. Given that China is the world's largest REE supplier with abundant REE reserves, the impact of an ambitious 1.5 °C climate target on China's Dy supply chain has sparked widespread concern. Here, we explore future trends and innovation strategies associated with the linkage between Dy and NdFeBs under various climate scenarios in China. We find China alone is expected to exhaust the global present Dy reserve within the next 2-3 decades to facilitate the 1.5 °C climate target. By implementing global available innovation strategies, such as material substitution, reduction, and recycling, it is possible to avoid 48%-68% of China's cumulative demand for Dy. Nevertheless, ongoing efforts in REE exploration and production are still required to meet China's growing Dy demand, which will face competition from the United States, European Union, and other countries with ambitious climate targets. Thus, our analysis urges China and those nations to form wider cooperation in REE supply chains as well as in NdFeB innovation for the realization of a global climate-safe future.

Increasing recovery opportunities of metal(loid)s from municipal solid waste via landfill leachate recirculation

The recovery of 12 critical raw materials (CRM) from municipal solid wastes (MSW) via leachate recirculation was evaluated using a 4 L semi-pilot scale column percolation. The results showed that the recovery of the metal(loid)s was mainly influenced by order of importance: pH > organic content > type of metal(loid)s > age of the waste > redox potential. Among the CRM, Cd and Ni were the most mobile elements, while As and Cr were the least mobile. A comparison of leachate from the leachate recirculated columns before and after the initiation of recirculation indicates an increase in the concentrations of certain CRM and metalloids. The first recirculation cycle supported achieving 100 % recovery. CRM and metalloids in leachate can be recovered; however, the concentrations of CRM and metalloids are usually below 1 mg/L. In this regard, leachate recirculation may enhance the increasing concentration of CRM in landfill leachate. For example, after first recirculation cycle, Ni concentration increased from 0.05 mg/L to 0.11 mg/L. The results obtained from this study can develop further methodologies for the potential recovery of CRM and help foster further research into overcoming limitations for recovering CRM in landfill leachate.

LAYERS: A Decision-Support Tool to Illustrate and Assess the Supply and Value Chain for the Energy Transition

Climate change mitigation strategies are developed at international, national, and local authority levels. Technological solutions such as renewable energies (RE) and electric vehicles (EV) have geographically widespread knock-on effects on raw materials. In this paper, a decision-support and data-visualization tool named “LAYERS” is presented, which applies a material flow analysis to illustrate the complex connections along supply chains for carbon technologies. A case study focuses on cobalt for lithium-ion batteries (LIB) required for EVs. It relates real business data from mining and manufacturing to actual EV registrations in the UK to visualize the intended and unintended consequences of the demand for cobalt. LAYERS integrates a geographic information systems (GIS) architecture, database scheme, and whole series of stored procedures and functions. By means of a 3D visualization based on GIS, LAYERS conveys a clear understanding of the location of raw materials (from reserves, to mining, refining, manufacturing, and use) across the globe. This highlights to decision makers the often hidden but far-reaching geo-political implications of the growing demands for a range of raw materials that are needed to meet long-term carbon-reduction targets.

Selenium (Se) recovery for technological applications from environmental matrices based on biotic and abiotic mechanisms

Selenium (Se) is an essential element with application in manufacturing from food to medical industries. Water contamination by Se is of concern due to anthropogenic activities. Recently, Se remediation has received increasing attention. Hence, different types of remediation techniques are listed in this work, and their potential for Se recovery is evaluated. Sorption, co-precipitation, coagulation and precipitation are effective for low-cost Se removal. In photocatalytic, zero-valent iron and electrochemical systems, the above mechanisms occur with reduction as an immobilization and detoxification process. In combination with magnetic separation, the above techniques are promising for Se recovery. Biological Se oxyanions reduction has been widely recognized as a cost-effective method for Se remediation, simultaneously generating biosynthetic Se nanoparticles (BioSeNPs). Increasing the extracellular production of BioSeNPs and controlling their morphology will benefit its recovery. However, the mechanism of the microbial production of BioSeNPs is not well understood. Se containing products from both microbial reduction and abiotic methods need to be refined to obtain pure Se. Eco-friendly and cost-effective Se refinery methods need to be developed. Overall, this review offers insight into the necessity of shifting attention from Se remediation to Se recovery.

Resource Availability and Implications for the Development of Plug-In Electric Vehicles

Plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) have immense potential for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and dependence on fossil fuels, and for smart grid applications. Although a great deal of research is focused on technological limitations that affect PEV battery performance targets, a major and arguably equal concern is the constraint imposed by the finite availability of elements or resources used in the manufacture of PEV batteries. Availability of resources, such as lithium, for batteries is critical to the future of PEVs and is, therefore, a topic that needs attention. This study addresses the issues related to lithium availability and sustainability, particularly supply and demand related to PEVs and the impact on future PEV growth. In this paper, a detailed review of the research on lithium availability for PEV batteries is presented, key challenges are pinpointed and future impacts on PEV technology are outlined.

Materials, energy, water, and emissions nexus impacts on the future contribution of PV solar technologies to global energy scenarios

PV technologies are increasingly making significant contribution to global energy generation (GEG), attributed to their high potential of increasing efficiency, cost reduction, and improving energy security. These technologies however rely on metals that are identified as critical due to risks associated with their supply, and other materials that require energy and water for their production. In this paper, a comprehensive assessment of required materials for PV technologies, an analysis of their materials inflows, outflows, and stocks, an estimate of their maximum contribution to global energy scenarios (GES), and an estimate of energy and water required for their material production and associated CO₂ emissions under the nexus approach, have been carried out using a dynamic material flow-stock model. A total of 100 energy-material nexus scenarios, which combines 10 GES and 10 materials scenarios, have been analysed. Results indicate that although most GES are difficult to be realized under current PV technologies market share and condition; these technologies could make significant contribution to GEG in future. The three commercial thin-film PV technologies could produce between 3% and 22% of electricity generation in IEA-450 scenario. Energy required for PV materials production is expected to reach between 5.9% and 11.8% of electricity generated (EG) by PV solar and between 0.76% and 1.52% of total EG in IEA-450 scenario by 2050. CO₂ emissions associated with material production are expected to be between 0.94% and 2.2% of total CO₂ emissions in IEA-450 scenario by 2050.

Integrating Circular Economy Strategies with Low-Carbon Scenarios: Lithium Use in Electric Vehicles

Electrification of the transport sector will support its decarbonization, yet significantly change material requirements. This calls for an integrated modeling approach internalizing metal demand-supply dynamics in low-carbon scenarios to support the Paris agreement on climate change and sustainable material circulation. Here we develop a step toward the integrated simulation of energy-materials scenarios by unifying a stock-flow dynamics model for low-carbon scenarios using linear programming. The modeling framework incorporates lithium supply from both mines and end-of-life (EoL) recycling for projected use in electric vehicles on a global basis. The results show that supply constraints, which could become apparent from around 2030 in the case of current recycling rates (<1%), would impede the deployment of battery electric vehicles (BEVs), leading to the generation of an additional 300 Mt-CO₂ of emissions for vehicle operation in 2050. Another important finding is that increasing the recycling rate to 80% could substantially relieve restrictions on the introduction of BEVs without requiring primary supply from natural deposits far beyond historical rates of expansion. While EoL recycling is important from a long-term perspective, an EoL-oriented strategy has little effect on the short/medium-term (such as to 2030) lithium demand-supply balance because of exponential demand growth and long living batteries. Importantly, findings in this study emphasize the necessity of tackling climate change and resource circulation in an integrated manner.

PV Waste Management at the Crossroads of Circular Economy and Energy Transition: The Case of South Korea

The South Korean government’s renewable energy deployment plan aims to increase the share of electricity generated from renewables to 20% by 2030. To reach this goal, the rate of photovoltaic (PV) installation will accelerate in the coming years. This energy transition creates a new challenge: PV wastes. This study estimates the amount of PV waste generated, the material composition of PV waste, and the amount of recyclable metals in South Korea by 2080 under four different scenarios (combining shape parameters of 5.3759 [regular-loss] and 3.5 [early-loss] with PV module lifespans of 25 and 30 years) using the Weibull distribution function. The annual waste generated will fluctuate over time depending on the scenario, but between 4299 and 5764 thousand tons of PV waste will have been generated by 2080. Under the early-loss/25-year lifespan scenario, annual PV waste generation will increase to exceed 130,000 tons in 2045, then decrease through 2063 before increasing once again. The fluctuation in annual PV waste generation appears stronger under regular-loss scenarios. An appropriate system for the monitoring, collection, and storage of PV waste needs to be arranged even before the volume becomes high enough for recycling to be economically viable. International cooperation could be a way to maintain the PV waste stream at an economically feasible scale. It would also be a good idea if the PV module could be designed in a way that would enable easier recycling or reuse.