Characterization of COVID-19's Impact on Mobility and Short-Term Prediction of Public Transport Demand in a Mid-Size City in Spain

Public transportation means as seen by citizens: Approaching the case of the Dominican Republic

and middle-income countries, key constraints such as dense traffic flows, jams, and pollution constitute frequent issues that potentially explain many negative consequences in terms of (e.g.) efficiency, sustainability, and mobility safety. In this regard, recent evidence supports the idea that fostering public transportation is crucial to offering solutions for this difficult panorama. However, transport mode-related choices and shifts have been proven to depend highly on key perceptions and needs of potential users. The aim of this study was to analyze a set of key users' perceptions, usage, and perceived quality of public transportation in the Dominican Republic, as well as to explore the most relevant features for Dominicans from the "desired quality" paradigm. For this research at a national level, data retrieved from a nationwide sample of 1254 inhabitants of the Dominican Republic was used, proportional to the ONE census in terms of sex, age, habitat, and region. Overall, the results show that the general quality of transportation is 6.70 points out of 10. The use of public transportation in the Dominican Republic has a medium-low rating and is very focused on urban buses (41 %) and public cars (27.1 %). Nonetheless, the metro remains the most highly rated means of transport (M = 8.75). Concerning the quality variables analyzed, the highest scores are for accessibility (M = 7.08) and frequency of service (M = 6.99). Further, Dominicans focus on improving comfort, vehicle conditions, and safety. This study constitutes a first approximation to the desired quality of public transportation for Dominican Citizens, which may help policymakers scope user-based needs in public transportation systems and encourage a more frequent (and friendlier) public transport use in the country.

A study on the factors that influenced the choice of transport mode before, during, and after the first lockdown in Milan, Italy

COVID-19 measures implied many changes to travel behaviour and transport mode choice during the pandemic. This study seeks to understand what individual characteristics and travel attributes are related to transport mode choice before, during, and after the first lockdown in Italy. Based on an online survey (carried out in May 2020 in Milan), three multinomial regression models are presented. The results show that and in which measure parameters regarding distance and duration of daily travel are markedly related to transport mode before the lockdown. However, these factors are less significantly associated with the transport mode during and after the lockdown. Meanwhile, factors such as Preferences and Worry about using public transport have more significant relationship with the modal choice during the pandemic. Regarding individual characteristics, women are more likely to use active mode during and after the lockdown. Additionally, two personality traits of Agreeableness, and Openness to experiences are related to transport mode during and after the lockdown, respectively. Overall, this study reveals that in addition to socio-demographic factors, other variables such as worry about using public transport, preference, and personality are associated with the choice of transport mode during the lockdown.

Systematic literature review on impacts of COVID-19 pandemic and corresponding measures on mobility

The unprecedented COVID-19 outbreak has significantly influenced our daily life, and COVID-19's spread is inevitably associated with human mobility. Given the pandemic's severity and extent of spread, a timely and comprehensive synthesis of the current state of research is needed to understand the pandemic's impact on human mobility and corresponding government measures. This study examined the relevant literature published to the present (March 2023), identified research trends, and conducted a systematic review of evidence regarding transport's response to COVID-19. We identified key research agendas and synthesized the results, examining: (1) mobility changes by transport modes analyzed regardless of government policy implementation, using empirical data and survey data; (2) the effect of diverse government interventions to reduce mobility and limit COVID-19 spread, and controversial issues on travel restriction policy effects; and (3) future research issues. The findings showed a strong relationship between the pandemic and mobility, with significant impacts on decreased overall mobility, a remarkable drop in transit ridership, changes in travel behavior, and improved traffic safety. Government implemented various non-pharmaceutical countermeasures, such as city lockdowns, travel restrictions, and social distancing. Many studies showed such interventions were effective. However, some researchers reported inconsistent outcomes. This review provides urban and transport planners with valuable insights to facilitate better preparation for future health emergencies that affect transportation.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11116-023-10392-2.

Quantifying COVID-19 recovery process from a human mobility perspective: An intra-city study in Wuhan

The COVID-19 pandemic has brought huge challenges to sustainable urban and community development. Although some recovery signals and patterns have been uncovered, the intra-city recovery process remains underexploited. This study proposes a comprehensive approach to quantify COVID-19 recovery leveraging fine-grained human mobility records. Taking Wuhan, a typical COVID-19 affected megacity in China, as the study area, we identify accurate recovery phases and select appropriate recovery functions in a data-driven manner. We observe that recovery characteristics regarding duration, amplitude, and velocity exhibit notable differences among urban blocks. We also notice that the recovery process under a one-wave outbreak lasts at least 84 days and has an S-shaped form best fitted with four-parameter Logistic functions. More than half of the recovery variance can be well explained and estimated by common variables from auxiliary data, including population, economic level, and built environments. Our study serves as a valuable reference that supports data-driven recovery quantification for COVID-19 and other crises.

Modeling the effects of the governmental responses to COVID-19 on transit demand: The case of Athens, Greece

Short-term demand forecasting is essential for the public transit system, allowing for effective operations planning. This is especially relevant in the highly uncertain environment created by the SARS‑CoV‑2 pandemic. In this paper, we attempt to develop accurate prediction models of transit ridership in Athens, Greece, using Autoregressive Fractional Integrated time series models enhanced with SARS‑CoV‑2-related exogenous variables. The selected exogenous variables are, from the one hand, the ratio of weekly SARS‑CoV‑2 infections over the infections 3 weeks before (capturing the dynamics of the pandemic, as a proxy for fear of transmitting the disease while commuting), and from the other hand, an index of the stringency of the government's SARS‑CoV‑2-related measures and regulations. The developed ARFIMAX models have been fitted separately on bus and metro ridership data and wield comparable and statistically significant results. In both models, the exogenous variables prove to be statistically significant and their values are intuitive, suggesting a linear interrelation between them and transit ridership.

Accessibility and Essential Travel: Public Transport Reliance Among Senior Citizens During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Using smart card travel data, we compare demand for bus services by passengers of age 65 or older prior to and during the COVID-19 pandemic to identify public transport-reliant users residing in more car-dependent environments-i.e., people who rely on public transport services to carry out essential activities, such as daily shopping and live in areas with low public transport accessibility. Viewing lockdowns as natural experiments, we use spatial analysis combined with multilevel logistic regressions to characterize the demographic and geographic context of those passengers who continued to use public transport services in these areas during lockdown periods, or quickly returned to public transport when restrictions were eased. We find that this particular type of public transport reliance is significantly associated with socio-demographic characteristics alongside urban residential conditions. Specifically, we identify suburban geographies of public transport reliance, which are at risk of being overlooked in approaches that view public transport dependence mainly as an outcome of deprivation. Our research demonstrates once again that inclusive, healthy and sustainable mobility can only be achieved if all areas of metropolitan regions are well and reliably served by public transport.

Detection of SARS-CoV-2 in the Indoor and Outdoor Areas of Urban Public Transport Systems of Three Major Cities of Portugal in 2021

Airborne transmission is mainly associated with poorly ventilated and crowded indoor environments where people stay for long periods of time. As such, public transport is often perceived as having a high risk for the transmission of SARS-CoV-2. Considering that data on the detection of SARS-CoV-2 in public transport systems are scarce, we performed air sampling for SARS-CoV-2 in indoor and outdoor spaces of public transport systems in Portugal. Air (n = 31) and surface (n = 70) samples were collected using a Coriolis® Compact microbial air sampler and sterile flocked plastic swabs, respectively. Samples were extracted and analyzed through RT-qPCR. Only two air samples from an outdoor and a partially open space were found to be positive for SARS-CoV-2 RNA. No positive surface samples were detected. These results indicate that the viral concentration in ambient air in public transport systems is linked to the number of people present in that environment and whether they are wearing properly fitting masks. Considering the current lifting of COVID-19 restrictions around the world, it is essential that people continue to wear masks in both indoor and outdoor environments, especially in crowded spaces. More studies on this topic are needed to fully elucidate the real risk of infection in outdoor spaces.