Modelling the Progression of Male Swimmers' Performances through Adolescence

Pacing Strategies in Elite Individual-Medley Swimmers: A Decision-Tree Approach

PURPOSE

This study aimed to examine pacing strategies and identify the stroke that has the most significant impact on overall performance in men's and women's 200-m and 400-m individual-medley events from 2000 to 2021.

METHODS

The time in each lap and overall race was retrieved from the World Aquatics website. The standardized time for each stroke in individual medley was calculated by dividing the actual time by a reference time specific to each stroke. The reference time was derived from the respective laps in single-stroke finals in the 2017 World Swimming Championships. The decision-tree method was used for analysis. The dependent variables were qualified or nonqualified in heats and semifinals, and winning medals in finals. The independent variables were the ratio of standardized time in each stroke to the sum of standardized time in all 4 strokes.

RESULTS

Swimmers who spent a higher ratio of standardized time in the butterfly stroke (>0.236-0.245) are associated with a higher likelihood of winning medals or qualifying for the next stage in most men's and women's 200-m and 400-m individual medley. Butterfly exhibited the highest normalized importance that distinguished medalists from nonmedalists in the finals. The front-crawl stroke is the second most important determinant in medalists in men's and women's 200-m individual medley, whereas backstroke and breaststroke were the second most important in men's and women's 400-m individual medley, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Individual-medley swimmers who were excellent in butterfly and conserved energy in butterfly had a higher likelihood of success.

Analysis of the fastest backstroke age group swimmers competing in the World Masters Championships 1986-2024

Backstroke has been thoroughly investigated in the context of sports science. However, we have no knowledge about the nationalities of the fastest age group backstroke swimmers. Therefore, the present study intended to investigate the nationalities of the fastest backstroke swimmers. For all World Masters Championships held between 1986 and 2024, the year of competition, the first and last name, the age, and the age group, and both the stroke and the distance were recorded for each swimmer. Descriptive data were presented using mean, standard deviation, maximum and minimum values, and confidence intervals. The top ten race times for each swimming distance and sex were identified for descriptive purposes. Nationalities were then grouped into six categories: the top five nationalities with the most appearances in the backstroke swimming top ten times by distance each year and one group consisting of all other nationalities. The Kruskal-Wallis test compared nationality differences, followed by Bonferroni-adjusted pairwise comparisons to identify specific distinctions. Between 1986 and 2024, most age group backstroke swimmers (39.6%) competed in the 50 m event (11,964, 6206 women, and 5,758 men), followed by the 100 m event (32.3%, n = 9764, 5157 women, and 4607 men), and the 200 m event (28.1%, n = 8483, 4511 women, and 3,972 men). Germany had the highest number of top ten female swimmers in the 50 m backstroke distance. Brazil had the highest number of top ten male swimmers in the same distance. The USA had the highest number of female and male swimmers among the top ten in the 100 m and 200 m backstroke distances. Germany and Great Britain were the only countries with swimmers in the top ten for all female backstroke distances. Brazil, the USA, Italy, and Germany were the countries that had swimmers in the top ten for all male backstroke distances. In summary, the fastest backstroke age group swimmers originated from Germany, Brazil, USA, Great Britain, and Italy, where differences between the sexes and race distances exist.

Don't Throw the Baby Out With the Bathwater: Talent in Swimming Sprinting Events Might Be Hidden at Early Age

PURPOSE

This study aimed to describe the career performance progression of elite early- and later-success international swimmers competing in sprint events (ie, 50 and 100 m).

METHODS

The career performance trajectories of 6003 swimmers (50.9% females; 58,760 unique records) competing in the 4 swimming strokes were evaluated. Swimmers with early and later success were identified. The authors identified the top 50 all-time swimmers competing in junior career who did not reach the top 50 rankings in their senior career, and vice versa, and successful swimmers in both junior and senior career.

RESULTS

Early-success swimmers mainly achieved their peak performance before the age of 20 years and approximately 5-6 years before successful senior swimmers or approximately 3-4 years before successful swimmers both in junior and senior careers. The annual performance improvements of later-success swimmers were higher (about 1%-2%) until the age of 20 to 24 years, whereas early-success swimmers showed a performance stagnation at about 16 to 18 years in females and 19 to 20 years in males.

CONCLUSIONS

Early-success swimmers who achieved peak performance at a young age were unable to maintain the same level of competitiveness in adulthood as they experienced a plateau in performance from the age of 20 years. The procedure of considering early performances solely for talent identification (and not the current rate of progression) might represent a limited approach for selecting future elite swimmers. Our results indicate that performance progression in the transition toward adult careers might be a strong indicator of performance potential.

Maturation-based Corrective Adjustment Procedures (Mat-CAPs) in youth swimming: Evidence for restricted age-group application in females

Inter-individual differences in maturation-associated development can lead to variations in physical performance, resulting in performance (dis)advantages and maturation selection bias within youth sport systems. To address such bias and account for maturational differences, Maturation-based Corrective Adjustment Procedures (Mat-CAPs) could be beneficial. The present study aimed to: (1) determine maturity timing distributions in youth female swimming; (2) quantify the relationship between maturation status and 100-m front-crawl (FC) performance; (3) implement Mat-CAPs to remove maturational influences upon swimming performance. For Aim 1 and 2, participants were 663 female (10–15 years) swimmers who participated in 100-m FC events at Australian regional, state, and national-level competitions between 2016–2020 and underwent anthropometric assessment (mass, height and sitting height) to estimate maturity timing and offset. For Aim 3, participants aged 10–13 years were categorised into maturity timing categories. Maturity timing distributions for Raw (‘All’, ‘Top 50%’ and ‘Top 25%’) and Correctively Adjusted swim times were examined. Chi-square, Cramer’s V and Odds Ratios determined the presence of maturation biases, while Mat-CAPs identified whether such biases were removed in targeted age and selection-groups. Results identified that between 10–13 years, a significantly higher frequency of ‘early’ maturers was apparent, although tapered toward higher frequencies of ‘Late-normative’ maturers by 14–15 years. A curvilinear relationship between maturity-offset and swim performance was identified (R²= 0.51, p<0.001) and utilised for Mat-CAPs. Following Mat-CAPs application, maturity timing biases evident in affected age-groups (10–13 years), and which were magnified at higher selection levels (‘Top 50%’ & ‘25%’ of swim performances) were predominantly removed. Findings highlight how maturation advantages in females occurred until approximately 13 years old, warranting restricted Mat-CAPs application. Mat-CAPS has the potential to improve female swimmer participation experiences and evaluation.

Particularities of the changes in young swimmers' body adaptation to the stimuli of physical and mental stress in sports training process

Background

A factor favoring the swimming performance increase is the adaptation and readaptation of body energetic and functional systems to the physical and mental stress stimuli in training and competitions. The efficiency of monitoring the young swimmers’ training is based on a precise determination of the changes in the specific adaptations. The evaluation and control of the biochemical, mental and motor changes ensure the knowledge of the particularities of body adaptation in different training stages.

Methods

Six young swimmers aged 12–16 years specialized in 100 m event participated in this study, conducted in four stages (E1–general, E2–specific, E3–pre-competitive and E4–competitive). The distress occurrence during adaptation to training and competition stimuli was studied in 3 levels: mental (Cohen & Williamson Test (CWT), Cohen Perceived Stress Test (CPST), Competition Anxiety Test (SCAT), Crăciun Test (CT)), motor (workouts monitoring, planning of means on training areas, anaerobic threshold assessment and average training speed calculation) and biochemical (blood lactate (La) and blood glucose (Glu) before and after effort—5 and 15 minutes; level of metabolic biochemical parameters, lymphocytes and blood glucose, and also hormonal parameters—norepinephrine, prolactin and cortisol—before and after competition effort).

Results

Quantity results of the mental, motor and biochemical tests were analyzed in groups; the quality results for each subject in dynamics were analyzed by comparison and correlation. Psychological tests showed increases in athletes’ mental behavior by 34% at CWT (p < 0.05), by 37.5% at CPST (p < 0.05), average stress level at SCAT and 70% stress in self-confidence at CT (p < 0.01). Biochemical tests revealed an ascending dynamics of La accumulated after specific effort, with peaks in E2 period (p < 0.05) and decreases in E3 compared to E2 (p < 0.05), revealing the adaptation to specific effort and the increase in anaerobic capacity. The Glu values decrease in pre-effort and increase in minute 5 and 15 post-effort (p < 0.05) in E2 and decrease in pre- and post- effort in E3 (p < 0.05), showing the effort impact on body and ability to recover after effort. Athletes’ individual metabolic results were 50% above maximum values, mainly post-effort (42%); hormonal results were 17% over maximum values, mainly post-effort (14%). Spearman’s correlative analysis of the induced-stress stimuli in workouts revealed 6.06% significant correlations at p < 0.05 and 9.1% strong connections in competitions: 4.67% significant correlations at p < 0.05 and 6.4% strong connections.

Conclusion

The research demonstrated that the mental and biochemical tests results correlation with the specific motor tests facilitated the correct individualization of effort orientation in training and recovery and contributed to the knowledge of the particularities of young swimmers’ body adaptation to training and competition effort.

Specific and Holistic Predictors of Sprint Front Crawl Swimming Performance

The aim of the study was to examine the impact of selected water- and dry-land predictors of 50-m front crawl performance among 27 male swimmers aged 19.3 ± 2.67 years. The following water tests were performed: front crawl tethered arm stroking in a water flume (flow velocity: 0.9 m·s-1) and leg tethered flutter kicking in a swimming pool. Anaerobic tests on dry land included arm cranking and a set of 10 countermovement jumps. The maximal and average forces generated by legs in tethered swimming (Fl max and Fl ave) turned out to be the strongest predictors of sprint swimming aptitude. These values were strongly correlated with total speed (Vtotal50) (r = 0.49, p < 0.05 and r = 0.54, p < 0.01, respectively), start, turn, and finishing speed (VSTF) (r = 0.60, p < 0.01 and r = 0.67, p < 0.01, respectively). The relationship of Fl max and Fl ave with surface speed (Vsurface) was moderate (r = 0.33, non-significant and r = 0.41, p < 0.05, respectively). The maximal force generated by arms (Fa max) during flume tethered swimming significantly influenced Vsurface and Vtotal50 (0.51, p < 0.01 and 0.47, p < 0.05, respectively). Its relationship with VSTF was close to significant (0.36, p = 0.07). Upper and lower limb dry-land tests showed lower and more holistic relationships with the 50-m front crawl race, however, being a good complement to overall fitness assessment. Specific in-water evaluation, especially the newly prepared flutter kicking test, as well as dry-land tests, can be applied to regularly monitor progress in swimming training, and to identify talented swimmers.

Pacing in World-Class Age Group Swimmers in 200 and 400 m Individual Medley

The present research investigated pacing for world-class age group swimmers competing in individual medley in 200 m and 400 m. Data on 3,242 unique finishers (1,475 women and 1,767 men) competing in four Master World Championships [XV FINA WMC held in Montreal (Canada) in 2014, the XVI FINA WMC held in Kazan (RUS) in 2015, the FINA WMC held in Budapest (HUN) in 2017, and the XVIII FINA WMC held in Gwangju (KOR] in 2019) were analyzed. Men were faster than women among all age groups in both 200 and 400 m. Additionally, differences were found between almost all adjacent age groups, with the exception (p > 0.05) of age groups 25-29 to 30-34, 35-39 to 40-44 years in 200 m races and 25-29 to 30-34, 30-34 to 35-39, 35-39 to 40-44, and 45-49 to 50-54 years in 400 m races. Men showed a higher pacing variation in 200 m among all male age groups and all female age groups up to 69 years. Pace-variation pairwise comparisons between men and women showed no consistencies throughout age groups, with the exception of a higher variation in men in age groups ≥55-year-old. Men were faster for all splits and strokes in both 200 and 400 m, and significant changes were identified for each split and stroke for both men and women in both 200 and 400 m. Front crawl (freestyle, 4th split) was the fastest butterfly (1st split), backstroke (2nd split), and breaststroke (3rd split). In summary, men were faster than women for all age groups in both 200 and 400 m. Men showed a higher pacing variation in 200 m in all age groups, where women had a higher variation in age groups up to 69 years. The fastest stroke for the final spurt was front crawl, followed by butterfly, backstroke, and breaststroke. Based on these findings, coaches should advise their master athletes to focus on the final spurt in both 200 and 400 m individual medley for a fast final race time.

Competition-Based Success Factors During the Talent Pathway of Elite Male Swimmers

Marginal differences in race results between top swimmers have evoked the interest in competition-based success factors of long-term athlete development. To identify novel factors for the multi-dimensional model of talent development, the aim of the study was to investigate annual variation in competition performance (ACV), number of races per year, and age. Therefore, 45,398 race results of all male participants (n = 353) competing in individual events, i.e., butterfly, backstroke, breaststroke, freestyle, and individual medley, at the 2018 European Long-Course Swimming Championships (2018EC) were analyzed retrospectively for all 10 years prior to the championships with Pearson's correlation coefficient and multiple linear regression analysis. Higher ranked swimmers at the 2018EC showed significant medium correlations with a greater number of races per year and small but significant correlations with higher ACV in 10 and nine consecutive years, respectively, prior to the championships. Additionally, better swimmers were older than their lower ranked peers (r = −0.21, p < 0.001). Regression model explained a significant proportion of 2018EC ranking for 50 m (47%), 100 m (45%), 200 m (31%), and 400 m races (29%) but not for 800 and 1,500 m races with number of races having the largest effect followed by age and ACV. In conclusion, higher performance variation with results off the personal best in some races did not impair success at the season's main event and young competitors at international championships may benefit from success chances that increase with age. The higher number of races swum per year throughout the career of higher ranked swimmers may have provided learning opportunities and specific adaptations. Future studies should quantify these success factors in a multi-dimensional talent development model.

Testing the application of corrective adjustment procedures for removal of relative age effects in female youth swimming

The purpose of this study was (1) accurately estimate longitudinal relationships between decimal age (i.e., chronological and relative) and performance in Australian female 100 m (N = 765) and 200 m (N = 428) Breaststroke swimmers (10-18 years); and (2) determine whether corrective adjustment procedures could remove Relative Age Effects (RAEs) in an independent sample of age-matched 100 m (N = 2,491) and 200 m (N = 1,698) state/national level Breaststroke swimmers. In Part 1, growth curve modelling quantified longitudinal relationships between decimal age and swimming performance. In Part 2, relative age distributions (Quartile 1-4) for "All", "Top 25%" and "10%" of swimming times were examined based on raw and correctively adjusted swim times for age-groups. Based on raw swim times, finding identified RAE effect sizes increased in magnitude (small-medium) with selection level ("All"-"Top 25%") in 12-14 years age-groups for both events. However, when correctively adjusted swim performances were examined, RAEs were primarily absent across all age-groups and selection levels. Using longitudinal reference data, corrective adjustment procedures removed relative age advantages in female youth Breaststroke performance. Removing the influence of relative age-related differences is predicted to improve the accuracy of identifying genuinely skilled youth swimmers.

Analysis of World Championship Swimmers Using a Performance Progression Model

Purpose

The primary aim was to create a performance progression model of elite competitors in the World Swimming Championships from 2006 to 2017 for all strokes and distances. Secondly, to identify the influence of annual ratios of progression, ages of peak performance and junior status on success in senior competitions.

Methods

Data regarding the participants of senior and junior World Championships (WCs) between 2006 and 2017 were obtained from FINA. The final filtered database, after removing those swimmers who just participated in junior WCs, included 4076. Statistical models were used to examine differences between the top senior swimmers (the top 30% best performances; T30) and lower level swimmers (the bottom 70% performances; L70) for minimum age (MA), progress (P) and best junior time (BJ). In order to identify the variables that contribute to reach the T30 group, a logistic regression (LR), stepwise LR and decision tree were applied. To analyze the effect of each variable separately, a simple LR (gross odds ratio) was performed. Ratio probabilities (OR) and 95% confidence intervals were calculated for each variable.

Results

Swimmer’s BJ and P were higher in the T30 group (p < 0.000). The decision tree showed the greatest explanatory capacity for BJ, followed by P. The MA had a very low explanatory capacity and was not significant in the LR.

Conclusion

Swimmers with exceptional junior performance times, or have a high rate of progress are more likely to be successful at the senior WCs.

Removing relative age effects from youth swimming: The development and testing of corrective adjustment procedures

OBJECTIVES

(1) Generate accurate estimates of the relationship between decimal age (i.e., chronological and relative) with swimming performance based on longitudinal data. (2) Determine whether corrective adjustment procedures can remove Relative Age Effects (RAEs) from junior/youth swimming.

DESIGN

Longitudinal and repeated years of cross-sectional performance data were examined.

METHODS

(1) Participants were 553 male 100m Freestyle swimmers (10-18 years) who participated in ≥five annual events between 1999-2017. Growth curve modelling quantified the relationship between age and swimming performance, permitting corrective adjustment calculations. (2) Participants were N=2141 male 100m Freestyle swimmers (13-16 years) who swam at state/national events in 2015-2017. Relative age distributions for 'All', 'Top 50%', '25%' and '10%' of swimming times were examined based on raw and correctively adjusted swim times. Chi-square, Cramer's V and Odds Ratios (OR) determined whether relative age (quartile) inequalities existed according to age-groups, selection level and correctively adjusted swim times.

RESULTS

Based on raw swim times, for 'All' swimmers RAEs was evident at 13 and 14 years-old and dissipated thereafter. But, RAE effect sizes substantially increased with selection level, with large-medium effects between 13-15 years-old (e.g., 15 years - Top 50% Q1v Q4 OR=2.28; Top 10%=6.02). However, when correctively adjusted swim times were examined, RAEs were predominantly absent across age-group and selection levels.

CONCLUSIONS

With accurate longitudinal reference data, corrective adjustment procedures effectively removed RAEs from 100m Freestyle swimming performance, suggesting the potential to improve swimming participation experience and performance evaluation.

How Confident Can We Be in Modelling Female Swimming Performance in Adolescence?

The purpose of this research was to determine the expected progression of adolescent female swimming performances using a longitudinal approach. The performances of 514 female swimmers (12–19 year olds) who participated in one or more FINA-regulated annual international schools’ swimming championships over an eight-year period were analysed. Quadratic functions for each of the seven individual events (50, 100, 200 m freestyle, 100 m backstroke, breaststroke, butterfly, 200 m individual medley) were determined using mixed linear models. The predicted threshold of peak performance ranged from 16.8 ± 0.2 (200 m individual medley) to 20.6 ± 0.1 (100 m butterfly) years of age, preceded by gradual rates of improvement (mean rate of 1.6% per year). However, following cross validation, only three events (100 m backstroke, 200 m individual medley and 200 m freestyle) produced reliable models. Identifying the factors that contribute to the progression of female performance in this transitory period of life remains challenging, not least since the onset of puberty is likely to have occurred prior to reaching 12 years of age, the minimum competition age for this championship.