Evaluating Nature-Based Solution for Flood Reduction in Spercheios River Basin under Current and Future Climate Conditions

Pathways of ecosystem-based disaster risk reduction: A global review of empirical evidence

Ecosystems provide valuable services in reducing the risks of disasters through various pathways, which are increasingly recognized as sustainable strategies for disaster management. However, there remains limited information on the underlying ecological processes of risk reduction. This paper addresses this gap by synthesizing ecological mechanisms and evaluating the 'level of evidence' and 'scale of use' through a review of 64 peer-reviewed research articles published between 2015 to 2022. These research articles covered nine types of disasters, predominantly floods (42.19 %), followed by urban heat waves (18.75 %), storm runoff (10.94 %), coastal erosion (9.38 %), tsunamis (4.69 %), and avalanches and landslides (6.25 % each). The level of evidence supporting ecological processes for disaster risk reduction is moderate, as is the 'scale of use'. Results show that there are a few studies describing the mechanism of ecosystem-mediated risk reduction and are mostly limited to the causal relationship. Empirical evidence demonstrates that forest and freshwater ecosystems buffer the risk of urban heat through processes such as transpiration, solar radiation interception, and evaporative cooling, while flood risks are mitigated by enhancing evapotranspiration, reducing water runoff time, and facilitating infiltration rates. Coastal erosion is reduced by dissipating wave energy and through beach nourishment, which facilitates ecological succession. The review underscores that hazard attenuation depends on factors such as forest type (e.g., species composition, age structure, and area), and landscape characteristics (e.g., matrix, composition and configuration). Moreover, the geographic scope of published research is largely confined to developed countries and the global north. Multidisciplinary research involving ecologists and disaster experts is imperative to address existing knowledge gaps and enhance the integration of ecosystem-based adaptation into disaster risk reduction strategies.

Mapping flood susceptibility with PROMETHEE multi-criteria analysis method

On a global scale, flooding is the most devastating natural hazard with an increasingly negative impact on humans. It is necessary to accurately detect flood-prone areas. This research introduces and evaluates the Preference Ranking Organization METHod for Enrichment Evaluation (PROMETHEE) integrated with GIS in the field of flood susceptibility in comparison with two conventional multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) methods: analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS). The Spercheios river basin in Greece, which is a highly susceptible area, was selected as a case study. The application of these approaches and the completion of the study requires the creation of a geospatial database consisting of eight flood conditioning factors (elevation, slope, NDVI, TWI, geology, LULC, distance to river network, rainfall) and a flood inventory of flood (564 sites) and non-flood locations for validation. The weighting of the factors is based on the AHP method. The output values were imported into GIS and interpolated to map the flood susceptibility zones. The models were evaluated by area under the curve (AUC) and the statistical metrics of accuracy, root mean squared error (RMSE), and frequency ratio (FR). The PROMETHEE model is proven to be the most efficient with AUC = 97.21%. Statistical metrics confirm the superiority of PROMETHEE with 87.54% accuracy and 0.12 RMSE. The output maps revealed that the regions most prone to flooding are arable land in lowland areas with low gradients and quaternary formations. Very high susceptible zone covers approximately 15.00-19.50% of the total area and have the greatest FR values. The susceptibility maps need to be considered in the preparation of a flood risk management plan and utilized as a tool to mitigate the adverse impacts of floods.

The underexposed nature-based solutions: A critical state-of-art review on drought mitigation

Droughts are the most expensive climate disasters as they leave long-term and chronic impacts on the ecosystem, agriculture, and human society. The intensity, frequency, and duration of drought events have increased over the years and are expected to worsen in the future on a regional and planetary/global scale. Nature-based solutions (NBS) such as wetland and floodplain restorations, green infrastructures, rainwater harvesting, etc., are highlighted as effective solutions to cope with the future impacts of these events. While the role of NBS in coping with the impacts of other disasters, such as floods, has been extensively studied, there has been a lack of comprehensive review of NBS targeting drought. The following paper provides a unique critical state-of-the-art literature review of individual drought-related NBS around the world, in Europe, and particularly in Belgium, and assesses the critical differences between the NBS applied globally and in Flanders. An extensive literature review was conducted to systematically analyze NBS, listing the type, the location, the status of the implementation, and the possible recommendations proposed to optimize future NBS applications. Finally, a comparison is made between small- and large-scale applications of NBS. By analyzing all these aspects, especially the level of effectiveness and recommendations, insight was gained into the future potential of NBS and possible improvements. The research indicated a lack of scientific publications, especially in Belgium. Hence, grey literature was also included in the literature review. Only four papers included a quantitative assessment regarding the effectiveness of drought on a global level, all stating a positive impact on groundwater recharge. In contrast, at regional and country levels, the performance of NBS was not quantified. The number of large-scale implementations is low, where landscape- or watershed-scale holistic approaches to drought mitigation are still scarce. Some successfully implemented projects are only very local and have a long realization time, two aspects that limit achieving visible impact at a larger scale. Among the many NBS, wetlands are recognized as highly effective in coping with drought but are still degraded or lost despite their significant restoration potential. A common effectiveness evaluation framework shall be followed, which gives policymakers a clear view of the different NBS investment options. Furthermore, a more collaborative approach is recommended globally, including different stakeholder groups, with specific attention to the local communities. To conclude, future research should increase the evidence base and implementation of drought-mitigating NBS.

Assessing the effectiveness of nature-based solutions-strengthened urban planning mechanisms in forming flood-resilient cities

Cities have experienced rapid urbanization-induced harsh climatic events, especially flooding, inevitably resulting in negative and irreversible consequences for urban resilience and endangering residents' lives. Numerous studies have analyzed the effects of anthropogenic practices (land use changes and urbanization) on flood forecasting. However, non-structural mitigation's effectiveness, like Nature-Based Solutions (NBS), has yet to receive adequate attention, particularly in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, which have become increasingly significant and indispensable for operationalizing cities efficiently. Therefore, our study investigated the predictive influence of incorporating one of the most common NBS strategies called low-impact development tools (LID) (such as rain gardens, bio-retention cells, green roofs, infiltration trenches, permeable pavement, and vegetative swale) during the urban planning of Alexandria, Egypt, which experiences the harshest rainfall annually and includes various urban patterns. City characteristics-dependent 14 LID scenarios were simulated with recurrence intervals ranging from 2 to 100 years using the LID Treatment Train Tool (LID TTT), depending on calibrated data from 2015 to 2020, by the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency index and deterministic coefficient, and root-mean-square error with values of 0.97, 0.91, and 0.31, respectively. Our findings confirmed the significant effectiveness of combined LID tools on total flood runoff volume reduction by 73.7%, revealing that different urban patterns can be used in flood-prone cities, provided LID tools are considered in city planning besides grey infrastructure to achieve optimal mitigation. These results, which combined multiple disciplines and were not explicitly mentioned in similar studies in developing countries, may assist municipalities' policymakers in planning flood-resistant, sustainable cities.

A nature-based solution selection framework: Criteria and processes for addressing hydro-meteorological hazards at open-air laboratories across Europe

Nature-based solutions (NbS) can be beneficial to help human communities build resilience to climate change by managing and mitigating related hydro-meteorological hazards (HMHs). Substantial research has been carried out in the past on the detection and assessment of HMHs and their derived risks. Yet, knowledge on the performance and functioning of NbS to address these hazards is severely lacking. The latter is exacerbated by the lack of practical and viable approaches that would help identify and select NbS for specific problems. The EU-funded OPERANDUM project established seven Open-Air Laboratories (OALs) across Europe to co-develop, test, and generate an evidence base from innovative NbS deployed to address HMHs such as flooding, droughts, landslides, erosion, and eutrophication. Herein, we detail the original approaches that each OAL followed in the process of identifying and selecting NbS for specific hazards with the aim of proposing a novel, generic framework for selecting NbS. We found that the process of selecting NBS was overall complex and context-specific in all the OALs, and it comprised 26 steps distributed across three stages: (i) Problem recognition, (ii) NbS identification, and (iii) NbS selection. We also identified over 20 selection criteria which, in most cases, were shared across OALs and were chiefly related to sustainability aspects. All the identified NbS were related to the regulation of the water cycle, and they were mostly chosen according to three main factors: (i) hazard type, (ii) hazard scale, and (iii) OAL size. We noticed that OALs exposed to landslides and erosion selected NbS capable to manage water budgets within the soil compartment at the local or landscape scale, while OALs exposed to floods, droughts, and eutrophication selected approaches to managing water transport and storage at the catchment scale. We successfully portrayed a synthesis of the stages and steps followed in the OALs' NbS selection process in a framework. The framework, which reflects the experiences of the stakeholders involved, is inclusive and integrated, and it can serve as a basis to inform NbS selection processes whilst facilitating the organisation of diverse stakeholders working towards finding solutions to natural hazards. We animate the future development of the proposed framework by integrating financial viability steps. We also encourage studies looking into the implementation of the proposed framework through quantitative approaches integrating multi-criteria analyses.

Nature-based solutions efficiency evaluation against natural hazards: Modelling methods, advantages and limitations

Nature-based solutions (NBS) for hydro-meteorological risks (HMRs) reduction and management are becoming increasingly popular, but challenges such as the lack of well-recognised standard methodologies to evaluate their performance and upscale their implementation remain. We systematically evaluate the current state-of-the art on the models and tools that are utilised for the optimum allocation, design and efficiency evaluation of NBS for five HMRs (flooding, droughts, heatwaves, landslides, and storm surges and coastal erosion). We found that methods to assess the complex issue of NBS efficiency and cost-benefits analysis are still in the development stage and they have only been implemented through the methodologies developed for other purposes such as fluid dynamics models in micro and catchment scale contexts. Of the reviewed numerical models and tools MIKE-SHE, SWMM (for floods), ParFlow-TREES, ACRU, SIMGRO (for droughts), WRF, ENVI-met (for heatwaves), FUNWAVE-TVD, BROOK90 (for landslides), TELEMAC and ADCIRC (for storm surges) are more flexible to evaluate the performance and effectiveness of specific NBS such as wetlands, ponds, trees, parks, grass, green roof/walls, tree roots, vegetations, coral reefs, mangroves, sea grasses, oyster reefs, sea salt marshes, sandy beaches and dunes. We conclude that the models and tools that are capable of assessing the multiple benefits, particularly the performance and cost-effectiveness of NBS for HMR reduction and management are not readily available. Thus, our synthesis of modelling methods can facilitate their selection that can maximise opportunities and refute the current political hesitation of NBS deployment compared with grey solutions for HMR management but also for the provision of a wide range of social and economic co-benefits. However, there is still a need for bespoke modelling tools that can holistically assess the various components of NBS from an HMR reduction and management perspective. Such tools can facilitate impact assessment modelling under different NBS scenarios to build a solid evidence base for upscaling and replicating the implementation of NBS.