Jo Y, Sung H. Impact of pre-pandemic travel mobility patterns on the spatial diffusion of COVID-19 in South Korea.
JOURNAL OF TRANSPORT & HEALTH 2022;
26:101479. [PMID:
35875053 PMCID:
PMC9289010 DOI:
10.1016/j.jth.2022.101479]
[Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/11/2022] [Revised: 06/10/2022] [Accepted: 07/11/2022] [Indexed: 05/11/2023]
Abstract
Introduction
Physical mobility is critical for the spread of infectious diseases in humans. However, few studies have conducted empirical investigations on the impact of pre-pandemic travel mobility patterns on the diffusion of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Therefore, this study examines its impact at the city-county level on the diffusion by the wave period during the two-year pandemic in South Korea.
Methods
This study first employs factor analysis by using the travel origin-destination data by travel mode at the county level as of 2019 to derive pre-pandemic travel mobility patterns. Next, the study identifies how they had affected the diffusion of COVID-19 over time by employing the negative binomial regression models on confirmed COVID-19 cases for each wave, including the entire pandemic period.
Results
The study derived five pre-pandemic mobility patterns: 1) rail-oriented mobility, 2) intra-county bus-oriented mobility, 3) road-oriented mobility, 4) high-speed rail-oriented mobility, and 5) inter-county bus-oriented mobility. Among them, the biggest risk to the diffusion of COVID-19 was the rail-oriented mobility before the pandemic if controlling such measures as accessibility, physical environment, and demographic and socioeconomic indicators. In addition, the order of the magnitudes for the impact of pre-pandemic travel mobility factors on its spatial diffusion had not changed during experiencing the three different wave periods during the two-year pandemic in South Korea.
Conclusions
The study concludes that the rail-oriented travel mobility pattern before the pandemic could pose the greatest threat factor to the spatial spread of COVID-19 at any scale and time. Policymakers should develop strategies to prevent the spatial spread of COVID-19 by reducing human mobility for daily living in areas with strong rail mobility patterns formed before the pandemic.
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