Impact of COVID-19 on Tuberculosis Indicators in Brazil: A Time Series and Spatial Analysis Study

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on tuberculosis treatment outcomes in 49 high burden countries

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted tuberculosis (TB) health services, including treatment support and access to drugs, as patients were not able to access health facilities. While the effect of this disruption on treatment outcomes has been studied in isolated treatment centres, cities and provinces, the impact of the pandemic on TB treatment outcomes at a country and regional level has not been evaluated.

METHODS

We used treatment outcomes for new and relapse TB cases reported to the World Health Organization (WHO) from 49 high TB, TB/HIV and drug-resistant TB burden countries from 2012 to 2019. We developed multinomial logistic regression models for trends in TB treatment success, failure, death and loss to follow up. We predicted TB treatment outcomes for 2020 and 2021, comparing these to observations, by computing ratios between observed and predicted probabilities. We aggregated these risk ratios (RR) for six WHO-defined regions using random-effects meta-analysis.

RESULTS

Across 49 countries and four TB treatment outcomes, 17 (out of 196) country-outcome pairs in 2020 and 21 in 2021 had evidence of systematic differences between observed and predicted TB treatment outcome probabilities. Regionally, only four (out of 24) region-outcome pairs had evidence of systematic differences in 2020 and four in 2021, where the European region accounted for four of these in total. Globally, there was evidence of systematic differences in treatment failure in both 2020 (RR: 1.14, 95%CI: 1.01-1.28, p = 0.0381) and 2021 (RR: 1.36, 95%CI: 1.03-1.78, p = 0.0277), deaths in 2020 (RR: 1.08, 95%CI: 1.03-1.13, p = 0.0010) and losses to follow up in 2020 (RR: 0.91, 95%CI: 0.86-0.97, p = 0.0059).

CONCLUSIONS

While for some countries and regions there were significant differences between observed and predicted treatment outcomes probabilities, there was insufficient evidence globally to identify systematic differences between observed and expected TB treatment outcome probabilities because of COVID-19-associated disruptions in general. However, larger numbers of treatment failures and deaths on treatment than expected were observed globally, suggesting a need for further investigation.

The global impact of COVID-19 on tuberculosis: A thematic scoping review, 2020-2023

BACKGROUND

This thematic scoping review of publications sought to understand the global impact of COVID-19 on tuberculosis (TB), interpret the scope of resonating themes, and offer policy recommendations to stimulate TB recovery and future pandemic preparedness.

DATA SOURCES

Publications were captured from three search engines, PubMed, EBSCO, and Google Scholar, and applicable websites written in English from January 1, 2020, to April 30, 2023.

STUDY SELECTION

Our scoping review was limited to publications detailing the impact of COVID-19 on TB. Original research, reviews, letters, and editorials describing the deleterious and harmful--yet sometimes positive--impact of COVID-19 (sole exposure) on TB (sole outcome) were included. The objective was to methodically categorize the impacts into themes through a comprehensive review of selected studies to provide significant health policy guidance.

DATA EXTRACTION

Two authors independently screened citations and full texts, while the third arbitrated when consensus was not met. All three performed data extraction.

DATA SYNTHESIS/RESULTS

Of 1,755 screened publications, 176 (10%) covering 39 countries over 41 months met the inclusion criteria. By independently using a data extraction instrument, the three authors identified ten principal themes from each publication. These themes were later finalized through a consensus decision. The themes encompassed TB's care cascade, patient-centered care, psychosocial issues, and health services: 1) case-finding and notification (n = 45; 26%); 2) diagnosis and laboratory systems (n = 19; 10.7%) 3) prevention, treatment, and care (n = 22; 12.2%); 4) telemedicine/telehealth (n = 12; 6.8%); 5) social determinants of health (n = 14; 8%); 6) airborne infection prevention and control (n = 8; 4.6%); 7) health system strengthening (n = 22; 13%); 8) mental health (n = 13; 7.4%); 9) stigma (n = 11; 6.3%); and 10) health education (n = 10; 5.7%).

LIMITATIONS

Heterogeneity of publications within themes.

CONCLUSIONS

We identified ten globally generalizable themes of COVID-19's impact on TB. The impact and lessons learned from the themed analysis propelled us to draft public health policy recommendations to direct evidence-informed guidance that strengthens comprehensive global responses, recovery for TB, and future airborne pandemic preparedness.

The impact of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic on tuberculosis notifications and deaths in the state of São Paulo, Brazil: a cross-sectional study

Background

The state of São Paulo reports the highest number of tuberculosis cases in Brazil. We aimed to analyze the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic's impact on tuberculosis notifications and identify factors associated with reduced notifications and tuberculosis deaths in 2020-2021.

Methods

This retrospective cross-sectional study analyzed data from 126,649 patients with tuberculosis notified in São Paulo from 2016 to 2021. Interrupted time series analysis assessed the pandemic's impact on notifications. Descriptive statistics and logistic regressions identified factors associated with decreased tuberculosis notifications and deaths during the pandemic (2020-2021) compared to the pre-pandemic period (2019).

Findings

Tuberculosis notifications decreased by 10% and 8% in 2020 and 2021, respectively, with declines 2-3 times higher among individuals with no education or deprived of liberty. Contrastingly, tuberculosis notifications increased 68% among corrections workers in 2021. Diagnostics and contact tracing were compromised. Individuals with HIV, drug addiction, or deprived of liberty had lower odds of notification during the pandemic. Black and Pardo individuals or those with diabetes, treatment interruption history, or treatment changes post-adverse events had higher odds of notification. However, adverse events and tuberculosis-diabetes cases have been increasing since 2016. During the pandemic, tuberculosis-related deaths rose 5.0%-12.7%. Risk factors for mortality remained similar to 2019, with Pardo ethnicity, drug addiction and re-treatment post-adverse events emerging as risk factors in 2020/2021.

Interpretation

The pandemic affected tuberculosis notifications and deaths differently among populations, exacerbating inequalities. Treatment interruption, loss of follow-up, and challenges in accessing healthcare led to increased mortality.

Funding

FAPESP, CNPq and CAPES, Brazil.

A critical analysis of the decreasing trends in tuberculosis cure indicators in Brazil, 2001-2022

OBJECTIVE

To analyze the temporal trend of tuberculosis cure indicators in Brazil.

METHODS

An ecological time-series study using administrative data of reported cases of the disease nationwide between 2001 and 2022. We estimated cure indicators for each federative unit (FU) considering individuals with pulmonary tuberculosis, tuberculosis-HIV coinfection, and those in tuberculosis retreatment. We used regression models using joinpoint regression for trend analysis, reporting the annual percentage change and the average annual percentage change.

RESULTS

For the three groups analyzed, we observed heterogeneity in the annual percentage change in the Brazilian FUs, with a predominance of significantly decreasing trends in the cure indicator in most FUs, especially at the end of the time series. When considering national indicators, an average annual percentage change of -0.97% (95% CI: -1.23 to -0.74) was identified for the cure of people with pulmonary tuberculosis, of -1.11% (95% CI: -1.42 to -0.85) for the cure of people with tuberculosis-HIV coinfection, and of -1.44% (95% CI: -1.62 to -1.31) for the cure of people in tuberculosis retreatment.

CONCLUSIONS

The decreasing trends of cure indicators in Brazil are concerning and underscore a warning to public authorities, as it points to the possible occurrence of other treatment outcomes, such as treatment discontinuity and death. This finding contradicts current public health care policies and requires urgent strategies aiming to promote follow-up of patients during tuberculosis treatment in Brazil.

Tuberculosis case notifications and outcomes in Peruvian prisons prior to and during the COVID-19 pandemic: a national-level interrupted time series analysis

Background

The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly disrupted tuberculosis (TB) programs, making it urgent to focus TB elimination efforts on key populations. People experiencing incarceration are at high risk for TB, however, how COVID-19-related disruptions have impacted incarcerated populations with TB is unknown.

Methods

Using Peruvian National TB Program data from Jan 2018 to Dec 2021, an interrupted time series of drug-susceptible (DS) TB case notifications pre- and during COVID-19 was conducted (cut-off date: COVID-19 emergency declaration in Peru, 16 March 2020). The effect of TB care occurring pre-vs. during COVID-19 on TB treatment success in the incarcerated and non-incarcerated populations was explored using logistic regression.

Findings

DS-TB cases notified in prisons from Jan 2018 to Dec 2021 (n = 10,134) represented 10% of all cases notified in the country (n = 101,507). In the first week of COVID-19, DS-TB case notifications dropped by 61.2% (95% CI: 59.9-62.7%) in the non-incarcerated population and 17.7% (95% CI: 17.5-17.9%) among the incarcerated population. TB treatment success was significantly lower in people receiving TB care entirely during the COVID-19 pandemic vs. before COVID-19 in the non-incarcerated population (OR: 0.81, 95% CI: 0.78-0.85), but not statistically significantly lower in the incarcerated population (OR: 0.88, 95% CI: 0.76-1.01). Incarceration status was not found to modify the effect of COVID-19 period on TB treatment outcomes (OR: 1.07, 95% CI: 0.92-1.25), although treatment success was higher in the incarcerated population (OR [incarcerated vs. not incarcerated, pre-COVID]: 1.52, 95% CI: 1.39-1.67).

Interpretation

Both incarcerated and non-incarcerated populations experienced a large drop in DS-TB case notifications (although higher in the non-incarcerated population). Lower TB treatment success among those receiving care during COVID-19 indicates significant TB service disruptions in the overall population. The finding that incarceration at time of diagnosis was associated with treatment success is plausible in Peru given increased screening and stricter treatment monitoring in prisons.

Funding

Canadian Institutes of Health Research (Funding Reference Number: 179418) .

Primary Health Care and Tuberculosis Detection during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Crucial Actions for Intensifying Efforts

BACKGROUND

Tuberculosis has been considered a global emergency since 1993, and controlling it has become even more challenging since 2020 due to the health and social crisis resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic. This study aimed to identify the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on tuberculosis case detection activities within primary health Care in the largest city in Brazil.

METHODS

This is a cross-sectional and analytical study on the provision of tuberculosis detection actions in primary healthcare units during the pandemic period. A descriptive analysis was performed for characterization, and Generalized Mixed Models were used for evaluating associations, with a Bonferroni post hoc test applied.

RESULTS

The study sample comprised 80 health units in the municipality. There was a moderate alteration level in the provision of consultations for individuals with signs and symptoms of tuberculosis in 2020 (13.8%) and in 2021 (15.1%). Statistical significance (p < 0.05) was found between the pandemic period and detection actions, with a lower alteration level in 2022.

CONCLUSIONS

Tuberculosis detection activities underwent changes due to the COVID-19 pandemic, mainly in 2020, which was associated with alterations in consultation and case notification provision.

Clusters of heterogeneity of tuberculosis-HIV coinfection in Brazil: a geospatial study

OBJECTIVE

To analyze the geospatialization of tuberculosis-HIV coinfection in Brazil, from 2010 to 2021, and the correlation with socioeconomic, housing, and health indicators.

METHODS

An ecological study of Brazilian municipalities and states, with data from HIV and tuberculosis information systems, previously reported by the Ministry of Health. The crude and smoothed coefficients were calculated by the local empirical Bayesian method of incidence of coinfection per 100,000 inhabitants in the population aged between 18 and 59 years. Univariate (identification of clusters) and bivariate (correlation with 20 indicators) Moran's indices were used.

RESULTS

A total of 122,223 cases of coinfection were registered in Brazil from 2010 to 2021, with a mean coefficient of 8.30/100,000. The South (11.44/100,000) and North (9.93/100,000) regions concentrated the highest burden of infections. The coefficients dropped in Brazil, in all regions, in the years of covid-19 (2020 and 2021). The highest coefficients were observed in the municipalities of the states of Rio Grande do Sul, Mato Grosso do Sul, and Amazonas, with high-high clusters in the capitals, border regions, coast of the country. The municipalities belonging to the states of Minas Gerais, Bahia, Paraná, and Piauí showed low-low clusters. There was a direct correlation with human development indices and aids rates, as well as an indirect correlation with the proportion of poor or of those vulnerable to poverty and the Gini index.

CONCLUSIONS

The spatial analysis of tuberculosis-HIV coinfection showed heterogeneity in the Brazilian territory and constant behavior throughout the period, revealing clusters with high-burden municipalities, especially in large urban centers and in states with a high occurrence of HIV and/or tuberculosis. These findings, in addition to alerting to the effects of the covid-19 pandemic, can incorporate strategic planning for the control of coinfection, aiming to eliminate these infections as public health problems by 2030.

Unsuccessful tuberculosis treatment outcomes across Brazil's geographical landscape before and during the COVID-19 pandemic: are we truly advancing toward the sustainable development/end TB goal?

BACKGROUND

Tuberculosis is one of the most significant infectious diseases for global public health. The reallocation of healthcare resources and the restrictions imposed by the COVID-19 pandemic have hindered access to TB diagnosis and treatment. Increases in unfavorable outcomes of the disease have been observed in Brazil. The objective of this study was to analyze the spatial distribution of unfavorable TB treatment outcomes in Brazil before and during the pandemic.

METHODS

An ecological study with spatial analysis was conducted with all 5569 municipalities in Brazil. All reported cases of tuberculosis between January 2010 and December 2021, as well as reported cases of COVID-19 from February 2020 to December 2021, were included. The outcomes studied encompass loss to follow-up, drug-resistant tuberculosis, and death. The Getis Ord GI* technique was employed to assess spatial association, and the Kernel density estimator was used to identify areas with concentrated increases or decreases in outcomes. Bivariate Local Moran's I was used to examine the spatial association between outcomes and COVID-19 incidence. The study was approved by the Research Ethics Committee of Ribeirão Preto Nursing School, University of São Paulo.

RESULTS

There were 134,394 cases of loss to follow-up, 10,270 cases of drug resistance, and 37,863 deaths. Clusters of high and low values were identified for all three outcomes, indicating significant changes in the spatial distribution patterns. Increases in concentrations were observed for lost to follow-up cases in the Southeast, while reductions occurred in the Northeast, South, and Midwest. Drug-resistant tuberculosis experienced an increase in the Southern and Southeastern regions and a decrease in the Northeast and South. TB-related deaths showed notable concentrations in the Midwest, Northeast, South, and Southeast. There was an increase in high occurrence clusters for deaths after 2020 and 2021 in the Northeast.

CONCLUSIONS

The pandemic has brought additional challenges, emphasizing the importance of enhancing efforts and disease control strategies, prioritizing early identification, treatment adherence, and follow-up. This commitment is vital for achieving the goal of tuberculosis elimination.

The impacts of COVID-19 hospitalizations on non-COVID-19 deaths and hospitalizations: A panel data analysis using Brazilian municipalities

The COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil has brought many challenges, particularly regarding the management of hospital capacity, and a new demand for healthcare that added to the preexisting demands, such as neoplasms, cardiovascular diseases and births. In this paper, we estimate the impact of the pandemic on the number of deaths and hospitalizations for other diseases. We construct a monthly panel data of deaths and hospitalizations for various causes by the municipality of residence and relate them to COVID-19 hospitalizations using regression models that control for municipalities fixed-effects and interactions between State and month fixed-effects. The standard errors are clustered at the municipality level. Our estimates imply that 100 more hospitalizations by COVID-19 is associated with a drop of 49 non-COVID-19 hospitalizations and an additional four deaths for other reasons (all measured per 100,000 pop.). The impact of intensive care units COVID-19 hospitalizations on mortality is larger. The groups most affected are the African Brazilians, less-educated and the elderly. Additional deaths occurred both at households and at hospitals. The main causes of additional deaths were diseases related to the circulatory and endocrine system. The decline in hospitalizations for other causes seems to be related to the overcrowding of hospitals in periods of surge in the COVID-19, alongside with the fall in the demand for care by the citizens who were afraid of COVID-19 infection. These mechanisms affected more strongly the vulnerable groups of the population. Our results highlight the importance of promoting the awareness of heightened risk of non-communicable chronic diseases during a health emergency context. This should be done preferably through already established channels with community outreach, such as the Family Health Program in Brazil.

Geo-spatial high-risk clusters of Tuberculosis in the global general population: a systematic review

INTRODUCTION

The objective of this systematic review is to identify tuberculosis (TB) high-risk among the general population globally. The review was conducted using the following steps: elaboration of the research question, search for relevant publications, selection of studies found, data extraction, analysis, and evidence synthesis.

METHODS

The studies included were those published in English, from original research, presented findings relevant to tuberculosis high-risk across the globe, published between 2017 and 2023, and were based on geospatial analysis of TB. Two reviewers independently selected the articles and were blinded to each other`s comments. The resultant disagreement was resolved by a third blinded reviewer. For bibliographic search, controlled and free vocabularies that address the question to be investigated were used. The searches were carried out on PubMed, LILACS, EMBASE, Scopus, and Web of Science. and Google Scholar.

RESULTS

A total of 79 published articles with a 40-year study period between 1982 and 2022 were evaluated. Based on the 79 studies, more than 40% of all countries that have carried out geospatial analysis of TB were from Asia, followed by South America with 23%, Africa had about 15%, and others with 2% and 1%. Various maps were used in the various studies and the most used is the thematic map (32%), rate map (26%), map of temporal tendency (20%), and others like the kernel density map (6%). The characteristics of the high-risk and the factors that affect the hotspot's location are evident through studies related to poor socioeconomic conditions constituting (39%), followed by high population density (17%), climate-related clustering (15%), high-risk spread to neighbouring cities (13%), unstable and non-random cluster (11%).

CONCLUSION

There exist specific high-risk for TB which are areas that are related to low socioeconomic conditions and spectacular weather conditions, these areas when well-known will be easy targets for intervention by policymakers. We recommend that more studies making use of spatial, temporal, and spatiotemporal analysis be carried out to point out territories and populations that are vulnerable to TB.

Disease burden of congenital Zika virus syndrome in Brazil and its association with socioeconomic data

Zika virus (ZIKV) infection became a global public health concern, causing an epidemic in Latin America from 2015 to 2016, when a sudden increase in cases of microcephaly and other congenital anomalies was observed. In 2016, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the World Health Organization defined congenital Zika-associated syndrome (CZS) as a set of congenital anomalies seen in children born to mothers with a history of gestational Zika fever, who have microcephaly as the most prevalent clinical sign. In order to describe the magnitude of CZS in Brazil, this study estimated the burden of disease due to CZS in Brazil using the disability-adjusted life years (DALY) indicator and other frequency measures, such as incidence and mortality rate, during the years 2015-2020. The association of these indicators with socioeconomic variables was also evaluated using Spearman's correlation coefficient. Choropleth maps were used to evaluate the spatial distribution of the indicators evaluated and the spatial autocorrelation was verified by the Bivariate Moran Local Index. From 2015 to 2020, 3,591 cases of CZS were confirmed in Brazil, with an incidence of 44.03 cases per 1000 live births, and a specific mortality of 12.35 deaths per 1000 live births. A global loss of 30,027.44 DALYs was estimated from 2015 to 2020. The Northeast region had the highest values for all health indicators assessed. Spatial correlation and autocorrelation analyses showed significant associations between health and socioeconomic indicators, such as per capita income, Gini index, illiteracy rate and basic sanitation. The study allowed us to have access to all reported cases of CZS, showing us the possible situation of the disease in Brazil; therefore, we believe that our results can help in the understanding of future studies.