Transmission Dynamics of Monkeypox Virus in Nigeria during the Current COVID-19 Pandemic and Estimation of Effective Reproduction Number

A global systematic evidence review with meta-analysis of the epidemiological characteristics of the 2022 Mpox outbreaks

BACKGROUND

In 2022, there were outbreaks of Mpox where the disease is not endemic. We summarized published full-text epidemiological data from the outbreaks.

METHODS

A global evidence review (protocol: osf.io/j3kb7) with systematic literature search up to February 09, 2023. We focused on experimental/observational studies of laboratory confirmed Mpox, excluding case reports and case series of < 5 cases. Epidemiological data were pooled using an inverse variance, random-effects model, and pooled estimates presented with associated 95% confidence intervals.

RESULTS

We included 66 studies. Mean incubation period was 7.8 days (6.6-9.0 days, 8 studies: 560 cases), reproductive number 1.8 (1.7-1.9, 6 studies), mean duration from symptom onset to diagnosis 5.8 days (4.8-6.8 days, 4 studies: 982 cases), mean symptom duration 17.5 days (14.7-20.2 days, 3 studies: 292 cases), mean serial interval 8.5 days (7.3-9.9 days, 1 study), hospitalisation 6% (4-9%, 26 studies: 5339 cases), and vaccine effectiveness 78% (65-91%, 3 studies: 953 cases). Highly relevant clinical manifestations were pleomorphic skin lesions 82% (68-94%, 26 studies: 4093 cases), anogenital lesions 64% (51-77%, 9 studies: 10,398 cases), fever 54% (50-57%, 52 studies: 25,992 cases), and lymphadenopathy 51% (46-57%, 42 studies: 17,803 cases), with cases mostly men who have sex with men (MSM). Possibly relevant manifestations were perianal lesions, fatigue, asthenia, myalgia, and headache.

CONCLUSIONS

The 2022 Mpox outbreaks presented with sex-related clinical manifestations and were mostly reported among MSM.

Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Malaria Control in Africa: A Preliminary Analysis

Malaria remains a significant public health concern in Africa, and the emerging coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic may have negatively impacted malaria control. Here, we conducted a descriptive epidemiological analysis of malaria globally, and preliminarily explored the impact of COVID-19 on the malaria elimination program in regions of Africa (AFR). The present analysis found that there was a vast heterogeneity of incidence of deaths caused by malaria globally in different continents, and the highest malaria burden was observed in AFR. In 2020, there was an obviously increasing trend in the malaria epidemic in AFR, while the other four continents exhibited stable and declining patterns. Historically, malaria has been largely concentrated in high-malaria-burden regions, such as West Africa, and there has been an obvious increasing trend in Nigeria. These data suggest that dynamic changes in the malaria epidemic situation worldwide have primarily originated from AFR, and West Africa has played an important role in the global malaria increase in recent years. Under the coercion of COVID-19, multiple factors have co-driven the increase in malaria in AFR, including insufficient financial investments, a high native malaria burden, weak surveillance systems, limited medical resources, and low socioeconomic development levels. In addition, the shift of medical resources (e.g., health workers and personal protective equipment (PPE), the manufacturing of diagnostic reagents, and drugs) from malaria control to emergency COVID-19 response in the pandemic's early stage caused disruptions, reductions, and delays in pillar malaria control measures, leading to a significant negative impact on malaria control. In particular, a funding shortfall at both the international and domestic levels led to a "significant threat," resulting in vast gaps in access to proven malaria control tools. Although there has been a declining trend in malaria control over time due to COVID-19, the effect still cannot be ignored. Hence, we recommend the implementation of medical and technical resource assistance as a priority strategy to support Africa (West Africa) in order to curb further transmission.