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Sun Z, Bai R, Bai Z. The application of simulation methods during the COVID-19 pandemic: A scoping review. J Biomed Inform 2023; 148:104543. [PMID: 37956729 DOI: 10.1016/j.jbi.2023.104543] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/03/2023] [Revised: 10/19/2023] [Accepted: 11/09/2023] [Indexed: 11/15/2023]
Abstract
With the outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic, simulation modelling approaches have become effective tools to simulate the potential effects of different intervention measures and predict the dynamic COVID-19 trends. In this scoping review, Studies published between February 2020 and May 2022 that investigated the spread of COVID-19 using four common simulation modeling methods were systematically reported and summarized. Publication trend, characteristics, software, and code availability of included articles were analyzed. Among the included 340 studies, most articles used agent-based model (ABM; n = 258; 75.9 %), followed by the models of system dynamics (n = 42; 12.4 %), discrete event simulation (n = 25; 7.4 %), and hybrid simulation (n = 15; 4.4 %). Furthermore, our review emphasized the purposes and sample time period of included articles. We classified the purpose of the 340 included studies into five categories, most studies mainly analyzed the spread of COVID-19 under policy interventions. For the sample time period analysis, most included studies analyzed the COVID-19 spread in the second wave. Our findings play a crucial role for policymakers to make evidence-based decisions in preventing the spread of COVID-19 pandemic and help in providing scientific decision-makings resilient to similar events and infectious diseases in the future.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zhuanlan Sun
- High-Quality Development Evaluation Institute, Nanjing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Nanjing 210003, China
| | - Ruhai Bai
- Evidence-Based Research Center of Social Science and Health, School of Public Affairs, Nanjing University of Science and Technology, Nanjing, China
| | - Zhenggang Bai
- Evidence-Based Research Center of Social Science and Health, School of Public Affairs, Nanjing University of Science and Technology, Nanjing, China.
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Angeli-Silva L, Santos JVPD, Esperidião MA. Health system, surveillance and the COVID-19 pandemic response in France. CIENCIA & SAUDE COLETIVA 2023; 28:1313-1324. [PMID: 37194867 DOI: 10.1590/1413-81232023285.11202022] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/10/2022] [Accepted: 01/17/2023] [Indexed: 05/18/2023] Open
Abstract
France was the first European country to confirm cases of COVID-19, being one of the most affected by the pandemic in the first wave. This case study analyzed the measures adopted by the country in the fight against COVID-19 in 2020 and 2021, correlating it to the characteristics of its health and surveillance system. As a welfare state, it relied on compensatory policies and protection of the economy, as well as increased investments in health. There were weaknesses in the preparation and delay in the implementation of the coping plan. The response was coordinated by the national executive power, adopting strict lockdowns in the first two waves, mitigating restrictive measures in the other waves, after the increase in vaccination coverage and in the face of population resistance. The country faced problems with testing, case and contact surveillance and patient care, especially in the first wave. It was necessary to modify the health insurance rules to expand coverage, access and better articulation of surveillance actions. It indicates lessons learned about the limits of its social security system, but also the potential of a government with a strong response capacity in the financing of public policies and regulation of other sectors to face the crisis.
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Affiliation(s)
- Livia Angeli-Silva
- Escola de Enfermagem, Universidade Federal da Bahia. R. Basílio da Gama 241, Canela. 40231-300 Salvador BA Brasil.
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Gostiaux L, Bos WJT, Bertoglio JP. Periodic epidemic outbursts explained by local saturation of clusters. Phys Rev E 2023; 107:L012201. [PMID: 36797932 DOI: 10.1103/physreve.107.l012201] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/17/2022] [Accepted: 12/19/2022] [Indexed: 06/18/2023]
Abstract
Adding the notion of spatial locality to the susceptible-infected-recovered (or SIR) model, allows to capture local saturation of an epidemic. The resulting minimum model of an epidemic, consisting of five ordinary differential equations with constant model coefficients, reproduces slowly decaying periodic outbursts, as observed in the COVID-19 or Spanish flu epidemic. It is shown that if immunity decays, even slowly, the model yields a fully periodic dynamics.
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Affiliation(s)
- Louis Gostiaux
- Univ Lyon, École Centrale de Lyon, INSA Lyon, Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1, CNRS, Laboratoire de Mécanique des Fluides et d'Acoustique, UMR 5509, 36 Avenue Guy de Collongue, F-69134 Ecully, France
| | - Wouter J T Bos
- Univ Lyon, École Centrale de Lyon, INSA Lyon, Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1, CNRS, Laboratoire de Mécanique des Fluides et d'Acoustique, UMR 5509, 36 Avenue Guy de Collongue, F-69134 Ecully, France
| | - Jean-Pierre Bertoglio
- Univ Lyon, École Centrale de Lyon, INSA Lyon, Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1, CNRS, Laboratoire de Mécanique des Fluides et d'Acoustique, UMR 5509, 36 Avenue Guy de Collongue, F-69134 Ecully, France
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Predicted Impacts of Booster, Immunity Decline, Vaccination Strategies, and Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions on COVID-19 Outcomes in France. Vaccines (Basel) 2022; 10:vaccines10122033. [PMID: 36560443 PMCID: PMC9783603 DOI: 10.3390/vaccines10122033] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/09/2022] [Revised: 11/21/2022] [Accepted: 11/21/2022] [Indexed: 11/29/2022] Open
Abstract
The major economic and health consequences of COVID-19 called for various protective measures and mass vaccination campaigns. A previsional model was used to predict the future impacts of various measure combinations on COVID-19 mortality over a 400-day period in France. Calibrated on previous national hospitalization and mortality data, an agent-based epidemiological model was used to predict individual and combined effects of booster doses, vaccination of refractory adults, and vaccination of children, according to infection severity, immunity waning, and graded non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). Assuming a 1.5 hospitalization hazard ratio and rapid immunity waning, booster doses would reduce COVID-19-related deaths by 50-70% with intensive NPIs and 93% with moderate NPIs. Vaccination of initially-refractory adults or children ≥5 years would half the number of deaths whatever the infection severity or degree of immunity waning. Assuming a 1.5 hospitalization hazard ratio, rapid immunity waning, moderate NPIs and booster doses, vaccinating children ≥12 years, ≥5 years, and ≥6 months would result in 6212, 3084, and 3018 deaths, respectively (vs. 87,552, 64,002, and 48,954 deaths without booster, respectively). In the same conditions, deaths would be 2696 if all adults and children ≥12 years were vaccinated and 2606 if all adults and children ≥6 months were vaccinated (vs. 11,404 and 3624 without booster, respectively). The model dealt successfully with single measures or complex combinations. It can help choosing them according to future epidemic features, vaccination extensions, and population immune status.
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Aouissi HA, Kechebar MSA, Ababsa M, Roufayel R, Neji B, Petrisor AI, Hamimes A, Epelboin L, Ohmagari N. The Importance of Behavioral and Native Factors on COVID-19 Infection and Severity: Insights from a Preliminary Cross-Sectional Study. Healthcare (Basel) 2022; 10:1341. [PMID: 35885867 PMCID: PMC9323463 DOI: 10.3390/healthcare10071341] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/03/2022] [Revised: 07/13/2022] [Accepted: 07/15/2022] [Indexed: 12/12/2022] Open
Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic has had a major impact on a global scale. Understanding the innate and lifestyle-related factors influencing the rate and severity of COVID-19 is important for making evidence-based recommendations. This cross-sectional study aims at establishing a potential relationship between human characteristics and vulnerability/resistance to SARS-CoV-2. We hypothesize that the impact of the virus is not the same due to cultural and ethnic differences. A cross-sectional study was performed using an online questionnaire. The methodology included the development of a multi-language survey, expert evaluation, and data analysis. Data were collected using a 13-item pre-tested questionnaire based on a literature review between 9 December 2020 and 21 July 2021. Data were statistically analyzed using logistic regression. For a total of 1125 respondents, 332 (29.5%) were COVID-19 positive; among them, 130 (11.5%) required home-based treatment, and 14 (1.2%) intensive care. The significant and most influential factors on infection included age, physical activity, and health status (p < 0.05), i.e., better physical activity and better health status significantly reduced the possibility of infection, while older age significantly increased it. The severity of infection was negatively associated with the acceptance (adherence and respect) of preventive measures and positively associated with tobacco (p < 0.05), i.e., smoking regularly significantly increases the severity of COVID-19 infection. This suggests the importance of behavioral factors compared to innate ones. Apparently, individual behavior is mainly responsible for the spread of the virus. Therefore, adopting a healthy lifestyle and scrupulously observing preventive measures, including vaccination, would greatly limit the probability of infection and prevent the development of severe COVID-19.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hani Amir Aouissi
- Scientific and Technical Research Center on Arid Regions (CRSTRA), Biskra 07000, Algeria; (M.S.A.K.); (M.A.)
- Laboratoire de Recherche et d’Etude en Aménagement et Urbanisme (LREAU), Université des Sciences et de la Technologie (USTHB), Algiers 16000, Algeria
- Environmental Research Center (CRE), Badji-Mokhtar Annaba University, Annaba 23000, Algeria
| | - Mohamed Seif Allah Kechebar
- Scientific and Technical Research Center on Arid Regions (CRSTRA), Biskra 07000, Algeria; (M.S.A.K.); (M.A.)
| | - Mostefa Ababsa
- Scientific and Technical Research Center on Arid Regions (CRSTRA), Biskra 07000, Algeria; (M.S.A.K.); (M.A.)
| | - Rabih Roufayel
- College of Engineering and Technology, American University of the Middle East, Kuwait;
| | - Bilel Neji
- College of Engineering and Technology, American University of the Middle East, Kuwait;
| | - Alexandru-Ionut Petrisor
- Doctoral School of Urban Planning, Ion Mincu University of Architecture and Urbanism, 010014 Bucharest, Romania;
- National Institute for Research and Development in Tourism, 50741 Bucharest, Romania
- National Institute for Research and Development in Constructions, Urbanism and Sustainable Spatial Development URBAN-INCERC, 021652 Bucharest, Romania
| | - Ahmed Hamimes
- Faculty of Medicine, University Salah Boubnider of Constantine 3, Constantine 25000, Algeria;
| | - Loïc Epelboin
- Infectious and Tropical Diseases Department, Centre Hospitalier de Cayenne Andrée Rosemon, 97306 Cayenne, France;
- Centre d’Investigation Clinique (CIC INSERM 1424), Centre Hospitalier de Cayenne Andrée Rosemon, 97306 Cayenne, France
| | - Norio Ohmagari
- Disease Control and Prevention Center, National Center for Global Health and Medicine, Tokyo 162-8655, Japan;
- AMR Clinical Reference Center, National Center for Global Health and Medicine, Tokyo 162-8655, Japan
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Mellacher P. Endogenous viral mutations, evolutionary selection, and containment policy design. JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC INTERACTION AND COORDINATION 2022; 17:801-825. [PMID: 35018194 PMCID: PMC8739737 DOI: 10.1007/s11403-021-00344-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/12/2021] [Accepted: 12/14/2021] [Indexed: 06/14/2023]
Abstract
How will the novel coronavirus evolve? I study a simple epidemiological model, in which mutations may change the properties of the virus and its associated disease stochastically and antigenic drifts allow new variants to partially evade immunity. I show analytically that variants with higher infectiousness, longer disease duration, and shorter latent period prove to be fitter. "Smart" containment policies targeting symptomatic individuals may redirect the evolution of the virus, as they give an edge to variants with a longer incubation period and a higher share of asymptomatic infections. Reduced mortality, on the other hand, does not per se prove to be an evolutionary advantage. I then implement this model as an agent-based simulation model in order to explore its aggregate dynamics. Monte Carlo simulations show that a) containment policy design has an impact on both speed and direction of viral evolution, b) the virus may circulate in the population indefinitely, provided that containment efforts are too relaxed and the propensity of the virus to escape immunity is high enough, and crucially c) that it may not be possible to distinguish between a slowly and a rapidly evolving virus by looking only at short-term epidemiological outcomes. Thus, what looks like a successful mitigation strategy in the short run, may prove to have devastating long-run effects. These results suggest that optimal containment policy must take the propensity of the virus to mutate and escape immunity into account, strengthening the case for genetic and antigenic surveillance even in the early stages of an epidemic.
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