Estimating the Postmortem Interval of Wild Boar Carcasses

Evaluation of porcine decomposition and total body score (TBS) in a central European temperate forest

The total body score (TBS) is a visual scoring method to scale the succession of decomposition stages. It compares decomposition between cadavers, to connect it with external taphonomic factors and estimate the post-mortem interval. To study decomposition in various climatic environments, pigs are often used as human proxies. Currently, there is one TBS system by Keough et al. (J Forensic Sci. 2017;62:986) for surface-deposited domestic pigs, coming from South Africa. Our study aims to evaluate this method and analyze porcine decomposition in Central Europe to inform forensic research and casework. We conducted an experiment studying six 50 kg pig carcasses in a temperate Swiss forest. Three observers documented decomposition patterns and rated the decomposition stages from photographs based on the porcine TBS model by Keough et al. (J Forensic Sci. 2017;62:986). We documented discrepancies between the carcass decomposition of our specimens and those in the South African study, especially related to the high insect activity in our experiment. Furthermore, we noted factors complicating TBS scoring, including rainfall and scavengers. The agreement between TBS observers from photographs was in the highest agreement category apart from one "substantial agreement" category. Our study is the first in Europe to systematically test the Keough et al. (J Forensic Sci. 2017;62:986) method. The results evidence that regional adaptations are required to be applicable for other environments. We present a modified approach based on experimental observations in a Swiss temperate forest. The identification of regional decomposition patterns and drivers will inform future taphonomy research as well as forensic casework in comparable contexts in Central Europe.

Identification of predilection sites for wild boar carcass search based on spatial analysis of Latvian ASF surveillance data

Targeted search for wild boar carcasses is essential for successful control of African swine fever (ASF) in wild boar populations. To examine whether landscape conditions influence the probability of finding ASF-positive carcasses, this study analyzed Global Positioning System (GPS) coordinates of Latvian wild boar carcasses and hunted wild boar, extracted from the CSF/ASF wild boar surveillance database of the European Union, and random coordinates in Latvia. Geographic information system (GIS) software was used to determine the landscape type and landscape composition of carcass detection sites and to measure distances from the carcasses to nearest waterbodies, forest edges, roads and settlements. The results of the automated measurements were validated by manually analyzing a smaller sample. Wild boar carcasses were found predominantly in forested areas and closer to waterbodies and forest edges than random GPS coordinates in Latvia. Carcasses of ASF-infected wild boar were found more frequently in transitional zones between forest and woodland shrub, and at greater distances from roads and settlements compared to ASF-negative carcasses and random points. This leads to the hypothesis, that ASF-infected animals seek shelter in quiet areas further away from human disturbance. A detailed collection of information on the environment surrounding carcass detection sites is needed to characterize predilection sites more accurately.

African Swine Fever: Transmission, Spread, and Control through Biosecurity and Disinfection, Including Polish Trends

African swine fever is a contagious disease, affecting pigs and wild boars, which poses a major threat to the pig industry worldwide and, therefore, to the agricultural economies of many countries. Despite intensive studies, an effective vaccine against the disease has not yet been developed. Since 2007, ASFV has been circulating in Eastern and Central Europe, covering an increasingly large area. As of 2018, the disease is additionally spreading at an unprecedented scale in Southeast Asia, nearly ruining China's pig-producing sector and generating economic losses of approximately USD 111.2 billion in 2019. ASFV's high resistance to environmental conditions, together with the lack of an approved vaccine, plays a key role in the spread of the disease. Therefore, the biosecurity and disinfection of pig farms are the only effective tools through which to prevent ASFV from entering the farms. The selection of a disinfectant, with research-proven efficacy and proper use, taking into account environmental conditions, exposure time, pH range, and temperature, plays a crucial role in the disinfection process. Despite the significant importance of ASF epizootics, little information is available on the effectiveness of different disinfectants against ASFV. In this review, we have compiled the current knowledge on the transmission, spread, and control of ASF using the principles of biosecurity, with particular attention to disinfection, including a perspective based on Polish experience with ASF control.

Seasonal Occurrence of African Swine Fever in Wild Boar and Domestic Pigs in EU Member States

Since 2007, African swine fever (ASF) has spread widely within Europe and beyond. Most affected countries recorded outbreaks in domestic pigs and cases in wild boar. Outbreak data from 2014 to 2021 were used to investigate the seasonal pattern of ASF in domestic pigs and wild boar across affected member states of the European Union, since knowledge of seasonal patterns may provide the potential to adapt prevention, surveillance and control during times of increased risk. In domestic pigs, a yearly peak was observed in many European countries in summer (predominantly in July and August). In wild boar, the patterns showed more variability. In many countries, there was a seasonal peak of ASF occurrence in winter (predominantly in January and December), with an additional summer peak in the Baltic States (predominantly in July) and a further spring peak in Poland (predominantly in March). The observed seasonal effects may be related to the abundance and population dynamics of wild boar and to seasonality in pig farming. Moreover, ASF occurrence may also be influenced by human activities in both domestic pigs and wild boar.

The diffusion metrics of African swine fever in wild boar

To control African swine fever (ASF) efficiently, easily interpretable metrics of the outbreak dynamics are needed to plan and adapt the required measures. We found that the spread pattern of African Swine Fever cases in wild boar follows the mechanics of a diffusion process, at least in the early phase, for the cases that occurred in Germany. Following incursion into a previously unaffected area, infection disseminates locally within a naive and abundant wild boar population. Using real case data for Germany, we derive statistics about the time differences and distances between consecutive case reports. With the use of these statistics, we generate an ensemble of random walkers (continuous time random walks, CTRW) that resemble the properties of the observed outbreak pattern as one possible realization of all possible disease dissemination patterns. The trained random walker ensemble yields the diffusion constant, the affected area, and the outbreak velocity of early ASF spread in wild boar. These methods are easy to interpret, robust, and may be adapted for different regions. Therefore, diffusion metrics can be useful descriptors of early disease dynamics and help facilitate efficient control of African Swine Fever.

Fuzzy model for quantitative assessment of the epidemic risk of African Swine Fever within Australia

African Swine Fever (ASF) has spread rapidly across different continents since 2007 and caused huge biosecurity threats and economic losses. Establishing an effective risk assessment model is of great importance for ASF prevention, especially for those ASF-free countries such as Australia. With a vast territory and an economy heavily relying on primary industry, Australia faces a threat from the spread of ASF. Although ordinary quarantine measures have been well-performed throughout Australia, there is still a need to develop an effective risk assessment model to understand the spread of ASF due to the strong transmission ability of ASF. In this paper, via a comprehensive literature review, and analyzing the transmission factors of ASF, we provide a fuzzy model to assess the epidemic risk of Australian states and territories, under the assumption that ASF has entered Australia. As demonstrated in this work, although the pandemic risk of ASF in Australia is relatively low, there is a risk of irregular and scattered outbreaks, with Victoria (VIC) and New South Wales (NSW) - Australia Capital Territory (NSW-ACT) showed the highest risk. The reliability of this model was also systematically tested by a conjoint analysis model. To our knowledge, this is the first study to comprehensively analyze the ASF epidemic risk in a country using fuzzy modeling. This work can provide an understanding of the risk ASF transmission within Australia based on the fuzzy modeling, the same methodology can also provide insights and useful information for the establishment of fuzzy models to perform the ASF risk assessment for other countries.

Temperature-Dependent Development of Nitidula rufipes (Linnaeus, 1767) (Coleoptera: Nitidulidae) and Its Significance in Estimating Minimum Postmortem Interval

Coleoptera, including the family Nitidulidae, are valuable for estimating long-term postmortem intervals in the late stage of body decomposition. This study showed that, under seven constant temperatures of 16, 19, 22, 25, 28, 31, and 34 °C, the developmental durations of Nitidula rufipes (Linnaeus, 1767) from oviposition to eclosion were 71.0 ± 4.4, 52.9 ± 4.1, 40.1 ± 3.4, 30.1 ± 2.1, 24.2 ± 2.0, 21.0 ±2.3, and 20.8 ± 2.4 days, respectively. The morphological indexes of body length, the widths of the head capsules, and the distance between the urogomphi of the larvae were measured in vivo. The regression model between larval body length and developmental durations was simulated for larval aging, and the head capsule width and the distance between the urogomphi at different instars were cluster-analyzed for instar discrimination. Based on the developmental durations, larval body length and thermal summation data were obtained, and the isomorphen diagram, isomegalen diagram, linear thermal summation models, and curvilinear Optim SSI models were established. The lower developmental threshold and thermal summation constant of N. rufipes evaluated by the linear thermal summation models were 9.65 ± 0.62 °C and 471.40 ± 25.46 degree days, respectively. The lower developmental thresholds, intrinsic optimum temperature, and upper lethal developmental threshold obtained by Optim SSI models were 10.12, 24.15, and 36.00 °C, respectively. The study of the immature stages of N. rufipes can provide preliminary basic developmental data for the estimation of minimum postmortem interval (PMI_min). However, more extensive studies are needed on the effects of constant and fluctuating temperatures on the development of N. rufipes.

Post-mortem interval of buried homicides in Okuku, Nigeria

Background

Post-mortem interval estimation of carcasses buried in shallow graves is a grey area in Nigerian forensic investigations. Most of the investigations and court decisions on the time of death of concealed homicides are based on assumptions in Nigeria. Therefore, this study investigated the post-mortem interval of buried remains in Okuku, Cross River State of Nigeria using porcine models. This study also provided a model account of the pattern and timeline of decomposition of buried remains in Nigeria.

Results

Four stages of decomposition were identified within the study period which includes fresh, bloat, active decay, and advanced decay stages. Features of bloat stage of decomposition include bloating of the animals and release of putrid odour. The active decay stage was characterized by the absence of maggots, bone exposure, and greyish discolouration of the body. The advanced decay stage of decomposition is characterized by adipocere formation, fungi activities, and bone exposure.

Conclusions

Buried bodies do not completely skeletonize within 168 days in a typical Nigerian savannah region. Bloat stage started by the 7th day; the active decay stage started by the 14th day. The fresh stage of decay lasted up to 7 days; the bloat stage lasted for 14 days. The active decay stage lasted about 35 days, and the advanced decay stage started at about the 56th day and progressed until the end of the study.

Threats to the Reintroduction Program of the Northern Bald Ibis (Geronticus eremita) in Italy: A Forensic Investigation

The Northern Bald Ibis Geronticus eremita is an endangered species, and recently it was reintroduced in Europe by the Waldrappteam. The reintroduction program has been strongly threatened by several sudden deaths, mainly in Italy. The present study used a forensic approach to analyze all of the 27 Northern Bald Ibises found dead in Italy between 2016 and 2022, which were suspected to have been victims of poaching, and it followed the veterinary forensic guidelines. Human-related causes accounted for 60% of the deaths, including illegal hunting (30%), blunt force trauma (26%), and electrocution (4%). Natural causes, starvation (15%), predation (11%) and disease (7%), accounted for 33% of the deaths. 7% of the causes of deaths remained undetermined. This study uses a forensic approach to analyze, for the first time, the main causes of death in Geronticus eremita and highlights the relevance of detecting illegal actions related to endangered species and stopping the phenomenon of poaching.

Spatio-Temporal Epidemiology of the Spread of African Swine Fever in Wild Boar and the Role of Environmental Factors in South Korea

Since the first confirmation of African swine fever (ASF) in domestic pig farms in South Korea in September 2019, ASF continues to expand and most notifications have been reported in wild boar populations. In this study, we first performed a spatio-temporal cluster analysis to understand ASF spread in wild boar. Secondly, generalized linear logistic regression (GLLR) model analysis was performed to identify environmental factors contributing to cluster formation. In the meantime, the basic reproduction number (R₀) for each cluster was estimated to understand the growth of the epidemic. The cluster analysis resulted in the detection of 17 spatio-temporal clusters. The GLLR model analysis identified factors influencing cluster formation and indicated the possibility of estimating ASF epidemic areas based on environmental conditions. In a scenario only considering direct transmission among wild boar, R₀ ranged from 1.01 to 1.5 with an average of 1.10, while, in another scenario including indirect transmission via an infected carcass, R₀ ranged from 1.03 to 4.38 with an average of 1.56. We identified factors influencing ASF expansion based on spatio-temporal clusters. The results obtained would be useful for selecting priority areas for ASF control and would greatly assist in identifying efficient vaccination areas in the future.

Decomposition stages as a clue for estimating the post-mortem interval in carcasses and providing accurate bird collision rates

The estimation of the post-mortem interval is crucial to accurately provide bird collision rates against manmade infrastructures. Standard methodologies recommend initially clearing all carcasses to ensure that subsequent collisions can be attributed to known time intervals. In this study, we propose a more cost-efficient approach aiming to link the decomposition stages as unequivocally as possible to the most likely time elapsed since death. Factors influencing the decomposition stages of bird carcasses were evaluated by means of two experiments. Firstly, we examined carcasses of large birds in three seasons differing in temperature, sun radiation and humidity: summer, autumn and spring. Secondly, we tested the influence of body mass in the same season (spring) using small, medium-sized and large bird carcasses. Results showed that the decomposition score increased monotonically with time, attaining the highest magnitude effect. A carcass with a decomposition score ≥ 4 (skeletal reduction) was in the field for ≥ 15 days, whereas a carcass with a score < 3 (fresh or emphysematous) was exposed < 3 days. Decomposition scores were higher in summer and did not differ among carcass sizes. This study provides an alternative protocol to estimate the post-mortem interval in wild birds in studies in search of bird fatalities.

Post-Mortem Dental Profile as a Powerful Tool in Animal Forensic Investigations—A Review

Veterinary forensics is becoming more important in our society as a result of the growing demand for investigations related to crimes against animals or investigations of criminal deaths caused by animals. A veterinarian may participate as an expert witness or may be required to give forensic assistance, by providing knowledge of the specialty to establish a complete picture of the involvement of an animal and allowing the Courts to reach a verdict. By applying diverse dental profiling techniques, not only can species, sex, age-at-death, and body size of an animal be estimated, but also data about their geographical origin (provenance) and the post-mortem interval. This review concentrates on the dental techniques that use the characteristics of teeth as a means of identification of freshly deceased and skeletonised animals. Furthermore, this highlights the information that can be extracted about the animal from the post-mortem dental profile.

Epidemiological analyses of African swine fever in the European Union: (September 2020 to August 2021)

This report provides a descriptive analysis of the African swine fever (ASF) Genotype II epidemic in the affected Member States in the EU and two neighbouring countries for the period from 1 September 2020 to 31 August 2021. ASF continued to spread in wild boar in the EU, it entered Germany in September 2020, while Belgium became free from ASF in October 2020. No ASF outbreaks in domestic pigs nor cases in wild boar have been reported in Greece since February 2020. In the Baltic States, overall, there has been a declining trend in proportions of polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-positive samples from wild boar carcasses in the last few years. In the other countries, the proportions of PCR-positive wild boar carcasses remained high, indicating continuing spread of the disease. A systematic literature review revealed that the risk factors most frequently significantly associated with ASF in domestic pigs were pig density, low levels of biosecurity and socio-economic factors. For wild boar, most significant risk factors were related to habitat, socio-economic factors and wild boar management. The effectiveness of different control options in the so-named white zones, areas where wild boar densities have been drastically reduced to avoid further spread of ASF after a new introduction, was assessed with a stochastic model. Important findings were that establishing a white zone is much more challenging when the area of ASF incursion is adjacent to an area where limited control measures are in place. Very stringent wild boar population reduction measures in the white zone are key to success. The white zone needs to be far enough away from the affected core area so that the population can be reduced in time before the disease arrives and the timing of this will depend on the wild boar density and the required population reduction target in the white zone. Finally, establishing a proactive white zone along the demarcation line of an affected area requires higher culling efforts, but has a higher chance of success to stop the spread of the disease than establishing reactive white zones after the disease has already entered in the area.

African Swine Fever Survey in a European Context

African swine fever (ASF) is currently the most threatening disease for domestic and wild pigs worldwide. Wild boar has been the main affected species in all EU countries except for Romania, where most notifications occur in domestic pigs. The spread of ASF in wild boar is challenging to control; risk factors are harder to identify and establish than in domestic pigs, which, together with an underestimation of the disease and the lack of treatment or an effective vaccine, are hindering control and eradication efforts. We distributed two online questionnaires, one for domestic pigs and one for wild boar, to experts of different background and countries in Europe, to explore risk factors in relation to ASF control connected to farming, hunting, trade, the environment, and domestic pig and wild boar populations. Overall, wild boar movements were estimated to pose the highest risk of ASF introduction and spread. The movement of pork and pork products for own consumption also ranked high. Here we explored, in addition to the assessment of risk pathways, the identification of risks of transmission at the domestic/wild boar interface, the importance of biosecurity practices and improved control efforts, and controversial opinions that require further attention.

How do genetic relatedness and spatial proximity shape African swine fever infections in wild boar?

The importance of social and spatial structuring of wildlife populations for disease spread, though widely recognized, is still poorly understood in many host-pathogen systems. In particular, system specific kin relationships among hosts can create contact heterogeneities and differential disease transmission rates. Here, we investigate how distance-dependent infection risk is influenced by genetic relatedness in a novel host-pathogen system: wild boar (Sus scrofa) and African swine fever (ASF). We hypothesized that infection risk would correlate positively with proximity and relatedness to ASF-infected individuals but expected those relationships to weaken with distance between individuals due to decay in contact rates and genetic similarity. We genotyped 323 wild boar samples (243 ASF-negative and 80 ASF-positive) collected in north-eastern Poland in 2014-2016 and modeled the effects of geographic distance, genetic relatedness, and ASF virus transmission mode (direct or carcass-based) on the probability of ASF infection. Infection risk was positively associated with spatial proximity and genetic relatedness to infected individuals with generally stronger effect of distance. In the high-contact zone (0-2 km), infection risk was shaped by the presence of infected individuals rather than by relatedness to them. In the medium-contact zone (2-5 km), infection risk decreased but was still associated with relatedness and paired infections were more frequent among relatives. At farther distances, infection risk further declined with relatedness and proximity to positive individuals, and was 60% lower among unrelated individuals in the no-contact zone (33% in10-20 km) compared with among relatives in the high-contact zone (93% in 0-2 km). Transmission mode influenced the relationship between proximity or relatedness and infection risk. Our results indicate that the presence of nearby infected individuals is most important for shaping ASF infection rates through carcass-based transmission, while relatedness plays an important role in shaping transmission rates between live animals. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Understanding the transmission of African swine fever in wild boars of South Korea: A simulation study for parameter estimation

Since the introduction of African swine fever (ASF) to Georgia in 2007, the disease has spread to many other countries including South Korea. Initial detection of ASF from wild boars (WB) in South Korea was reported in early October 2019. Since then, more than a thousand WB samples collected from the northern part of the country have been confirmed as ASF positive (2.9% of ASF positivity among WB samples collected until June 2020), indicating that the disease is endemic in the WB populations. To control the disease, multiple layers of fence-lines have been erected. Nevertheless, outbreaks continuously occurred across the fence, requiring a better understanding of the spatial transmission mechanism of ASF in WBs. Hence, we developed a novel ASF transmission model to estimate ecological and epidemiological parameters related to the spread of the disease in the WB population of South Korea. The results showed that roads and rivers were effective to prevent the spread, reducing the transmission rate to approximately 37% on average. Only a limited level of reduction was indicated via fence-lines, implying erection of fences might be considered as a temporary measure to delay the spread. This study also revealed that the probability of ASF transmission to adjacent habitats considerably decreased with increasing distance, supporting the slow spatial transmission speed reported from other European countries. Considering that elucidation of ASF dynamics in WB is crucial to mitigate the impact of the disease, we believe this study provides some useful ecological and epidemiological implications to control the disease in future.

Basic reproduction number of African swine fever in wild boars (Sus scrofa) and its spatiotemporal heterogeneity in South Korea

Background

African swine fever (ASF) is a hemorrhagic fever occurring in wild boars (Sus scrofa) and domestic pigs. The epidemic situation of ASF in South Korean wild boars has increased the risk of ASF in domestic pig farms. Although basic reproduction number (R₀) can be applied for control policies, it is challenging to estimate the R₀ for ASF in wild boars due to surveillance bias, lack of wild boar population data, and the effect of ASF-positive wild boar carcass on disease dynamics.

Objectives

This study was undertaken to estimate the R₀ of ASF in wild boars in South Korea, and subsequently analyze the spatiotemporal heterogeneity.

Methods

We detected the local transmission clusters using the spatiotemporal clustering algorithm, which was modified to incorporate the effect of ASF-positive wild boar carcass. With the assumption of exponential growth, R₀ was estimated for each cluster. The temporal change of the estimates and its association with the habitat suitability of wild boar were analyzed.

Results

Totally, 22 local transmission clusters were detected, showing seasonal patterns occurring in winter and spring. Mean value of R₀ of each cluster was 1.54. The estimates showed a temporal increasing trend and positive association with habitat suitability of wild boar.

Conclusions

The disease dynamics among wild boars seems to have worsened over time. Thus, in areas with a high elevation and suitable for wild boars, practical methods need to be contrived to ratify the control policies for wild boars.

The golden jackal (Canis aureus) and the African swine fever pandemic: Its role is controversial but not negligible (a diet analysis study)

Background

In Europe, the African swine fever (ASF) pandemic mostly affects the environmental domain of health, which is a strongly human‐impacted ecosystem. However, the current control strategies focus solely on the wild boar and tend to disregard other epidemiologically relevant elements of the ecosystem.

Objectives

This study investigated the potential impact of the golden jackal on the surveillance effort and disease transmission.

Methods

For this reason, the authors analysed the content of 277 stomachs of this canid species within its westernmost inhabitant population, in order to determine the amount of suid remains, disposed.

Results

The findings confirmed that in a densely populated wild boar habitat, the main diet component of jackals was wild boar all the year round. The jackals disposed of 0.3–0.6 kg/km²/day offals that potentially contained suid remains. On the other hand, the scavenging activity removed the most important target objects on which the passive surveillance of ASF should be based.

Conclusions

This study cannot determine whether canid scavengers positively or negatively influence the control efforts; however, the impact of the jackal should not be disregarded. The results warn the necessity of a multidisciplinary approach to complex epidemiological situations within different ecosystems.

A Review of Environmental Risk Factors for African Swine Fever in European Wild Boar

A detailed understanding of environmental risk factors for African swine fever (ASF) in wild boar will be not only essential for risk assessments but also for timely and spatially informed allocation of resources in order to manage wild boar-targeted ASF control measures efficiently. Here, we review currently known environmental risk factors that can influence the occurrence of ASF virus infection in wild boar when compared to disease occurrence in wild boar of a non-exposed reference scenario. Accordingly, the exposure of wild boar to environmental risk factors related to (1) climate, (2) land cover, (3) human activity, (4) wild boar and (5) ASF were evaluated. As key environmental risk factors in this review, increased ASF occurrence in wild boar was associated with seasonal patterns, forest coverage, presence of water, human presence, farming activities, wild boar density and ASF nearness. The review highlights inconsistencies in some of these risk factor associations with disease detection in space and time and may provide valuable insights for the investigation of ASF transmission dynamics. The examined risk information was applied to consider potential improvements of the ASF control strategy in wild boar regarding disease surveillance, hunting, wild boar carcass searches and ASF barrier implementation.

African Swine Fever in Wild Boar in Europe-A Review

The introduction of genotype II African swine fever (ASF) virus, presumably from Africa into Georgia in 2007, and its continuous spread through Europe and Asia as a panzootic disease of suids, continues to have a huge socio-economic impact. ASF is characterized by hemorrhagic fever leading to a high case/fatality ratio in pigs. In Europe, wild boar are especially affected. This review summarizes the currently available knowledge on ASF in wild boar in Europe. The current ASF panzootic is characterized by self-sustaining cycles of infection in the wild boar population. Spill-over and spill-back events occur from wild boar to domestic pigs and vice versa. The social structure of wild boar populations and the spatial behavior of the animals, a variety of ASF virus (ASFV) transmission mechanisms and persistence in the environment complicate the modeling of the disease. Control measures focus on the detection and removal of wild boar carcasses, in which ASFV can remain infectious for months. Further measures include the reduction in wild boar density and the limitation of wild boar movements through fences. Using these measures, the Czech Republic and Belgium succeeded in eliminating ASF in their territories, while the disease spread in others. So far, no vaccine is available to protect wild boar or domestic pigs reliably against ASF.

Postmortem interval assessment by MALDI-TOF mass spectrometry analysis in murine cadavers

Aims

This study assessed the use of matrix‐assisted laser desorption/ionization time of flight (MALDI‐TOF) mass spectrometry as an alternative method to identify species associated with the thanatomicrobiota and epinecrotic communities.

Methods and Results

The study was conducted on 10 murine cadavers, and microbiological swabs were collected from five external anatomical sites (eyes, ears, nose, mouth and rectum) and four internal organs (brain, spleen, liver, heart), during 16 and 30 days, for the thanatomicrobiota and epinecrotic communities, respectively. Our results revealed that the postmortem microbiota associated with the external cavities showed changes over time and reduced taxonomic diversity. The internal organs, initially sterile, showed signs of microbial invasion at 3 and 10 days postmortem for the liver‐spleen and heart‐brain, respectively. The postmortem microbiota was mainly dominated by Firmicutes and Proteobacteria.

Conclusions

MALDI‐TOF is a promising method for estimating postmortem interval (PMI), associated with rapid sample handling, good reproducibility and high productivity.

Significance and Impact of the Study

This study investigated microbial changes during the decomposition process and proposed a simple strategy for PMI estimation. Results introducing the application of the MALDI‐TOF method in the field of forensic.

Epidemiological analysis of African swine fever in the European Union (September 2019 to August 2020)

An update on the African swine fever (ASF) situation in the 10 affected Member States (MS) in the EU and in two neighbouring countries from the 1 September 2019 until the 31 August 2020 is provided. The dynamics of the proportions of PCR- and ELISA-positive samples since the first ASF detection in the country were provided and seasonal patterns were investigated. The impact of the ASF epidemic on the annual numbers of hunted wild boar in each affected MS was investigated. To evaluate differences in the extent of spread of ASF in the wild boar populations, the number of notifications that could be classified as secondary cases to a single source was calculated for each affected MS and compared for the earliest and latest year of the epidemic in the country. To evaluate possible risk factors for the occurrence of ASFV in wild boar or domestic pigs, a literature review was performed. Risk factors for the occurrence of ASF in wild boar in Romanian hunting grounds in 2019 were identified with a generalised linear model. The probability to find at least one PCR-confirmed ASF case in wild boar in a hunting ground in Romania was driven by environmental factors, wild boar abundance and the density of backyard pigs in the hunting ground area, while hunting-related variables were not retained in the final model. Finally, measures implemented in white zones (ASF-free zones that are geographically adjacent to an area where ASF is present in wild boar) to prevent further spread of ASF were analysed with a spatially, explicit stochastic individual-based model. To be effective, the wild boar population in the white zone would need to be drastically reduced before ASF arrives at the zone and it must be wide enough. To achieve the necessary pre-emptive culling targets of wild boar in the white zone, at the start of the establishment, the white zone should be placed sufficiently far from the affected area, considering the speed of the natural spread of the disease. This spread is faster in denser wild boar populations. After a focal ASF introduction, the white zone is always close to the infection hence pre-emptive culling measures in the white zone must be completed in short term, i.e. in a few months.

Modelling the Spatial Distribution of ASF-Positive Wild Boar Carcasses in South Korea Using 2019-2020 National Surveillance Data

Simple Summary

Since African swine fever (ASF) virus in wild boar populations can spill over to domestic pigs, it is crucial to understand the disease determinants in the wild compartment. However, the imperfect detection sensitivity of wild boar surveillance jeopardizes our ability to understand ASF spatial distribution. In this study, we used national surveillance data of ASF in wild boars collected in the Republic of Korea from 2019–2020 to model the spatial distribution of ASF-positive carcasses for two successive study periods associated with different surveillance intensity. The model allowed us to identify disease risk factors in the Republic of Korea, determine the spatial distribution of the risk of ASF, and estimate the sensitivity of surveillance. The outputs of this study are relevant to policy makers for developing and improving risk-based surveillance programs for ASF in wild boars.

Abstract

In September 2019, African swine fever (ASF) was reported in South Korea for the first time. Since then, more than 651 ASF cases in wild boars and 14 farm outbreaks have been notified in the country. Despite the efforts to eradicate ASF among wild boar populations, the number of reported ASF-positive wild boar carcasses have increased recently. The purpose of this study was to characterize the spatial distribution of ASF-positive wild boar carcasses to identify the risk factors associated with the presence and number of ASF-positive wild boar carcasses in the affected areas. Because surveillance efforts have substantially increased in early 2020, we divided the study into two periods (2 October 2019 to 19 January 2020, and 19 January to 28 April 2020) based on the number of reported cases and aggregated the number of reported ASF-positive carcasses into a regular grid of hexagons of 3-km diameter. To account for imperfect detection of positive carcasses, we adjusted spatial zero-inflated Poisson regression models to the number of ASF-positive wild boar carcasses per hexagon. During the first study period, proximity to North Korea was identified as the major risk factor for the presence of African swine fever virus. In addition, there were more positive carcasses reported in affected hexagons with high habitat suitability for wild boars, low heat load index (HLI), and high human density. During the second study period, proximity to an ASF-positive carcass reported during the first period was the only significant risk factor for the presence of ASF-positive carcasses. Additionally, low HLI and elevation were associated with an increased number of ASF-positive carcasses reported in the affected hexagons. Although the proportion of ASF-affected hexagons increased from 0.06 (95% credible interval (CrI): 0.05–0.07) to 0.09 (95% CrI: 0.08–0.10), the probability of reporting at least one positive carcass in ASF-affected hexagons increased from 0.49 (95% CrI: 0.41–0.57) to 0.73 (95% CrI: 0.66–0.81) between the two study periods. These results can be used to further advance risk-based surveillance strategies in the Republic of Korea.

ASF Exit Strategy: Providing cumulative evidence of the absence of African swine fever virus circulation in wild boar populations using standard surveillance measures

EFSA assessed the role of seropositive wild boar in African swine fever (ASF) persistence. Surveillance data from Estonia and Latvia investigated with a generalised equation method demonstrated a significantly slower decline in seroprevalence in adult animals compared with subadults. The seroprevalence in adults, taking more than 24 months to approach zero after the last detection of ASFV circulation, would be a poor indicator to demonstrate the absence of virus circulation. A narrative literature review updated the knowledge on the mortality rate, the duration of protective immunity and maternal antibodies and transmission parameters. In addition, parameters potentially leading to prolonged virus circulation (persistence) in wild boar populations were reviewed. A stochastic explicit model was used to evaluate the dynamics of virus prevalence, seroprevalence and the number of carcasses attributed to ASF. Secondly, the impact of four scenarios on the duration of ASF virus (ASFV) persistence was evaluated with the model, namely a: (1) prolonged, lifelong infectious period, (2) reduction in the case-fatality rate and prolonged transient infectiousness; (3) change in duration of protective immunity and (4) change in the duration of protection from maternal antibodies. Only the lifelong infectious period scenario had an important prolonging effect on the persistence of ASF. Finally, the model tested the performance of different proposed surveillance strategies to provide evidence of the absence of virus circulation (Exit Strategy). A two-phase approach (Screening Phase, Confirmation Phase) was suggested for the Exit Strategy. The accuracy of the Exit Strategy increases with increasing numbers of carcasses collected and tested. The inclusion of active surveillance based on hunting has limited impact on the performance of the Exit Strategy compared with lengthening of the monitoring period. This performance improvement should be reasonably balanced against an unnecessary prolonged 'time free' with only a marginal gain in performance. Recommendations are provided for minimum monitoring periods leading to minimal failure rates of the Exit Strategy. The proposed Exit Strategy would fail with the presence of lifelong infectious wild boar. That said, it should be emphasised that the existence of such animals is speculative, based on current knowledge.

Joining the club: First detection of African swine fever in wild boar in Germany

African swine fever (ASF) has spread across many countries in Europe since the introduction into Georgia in 2007. We report here on the first cases of ASF in wild boar detected in Germany close to the border with Poland. In addition to the constant risk of ASF virus (ASFV) spread through human activities, movements of infected wild boar also represent a route of introduction. Since ASF emerged in Western Poland in November 2019, surveillance efforts, in particular examination of wild boar found dead, were intensified in the regions of Germany bordering with Poland. The first case of ASF in wild boar in Germany was therefore detected by passive surveillance and confirmed on 10 September 2020. By 24 September 2020, 32 cases were recorded. Testing of samples from tissues of carcasses in different stages of decomposition yielded cycle threshold values from 18 to 36 in the OIE-recommended PCR, which were comparable between the regional and national reference laboratory. Blood swabs yielded reliable results, indicating that the method is suitable also under outbreak conditions. Phylogenetic analysis of the ASFV whole-genome sequence generated from material of the first carcass detected in Germany, revealed that it groups with ASFV genotype II including all sequences from Eastern Europe, Asia and Belgium. However, some genetic markers including a 14 bp tandem repeat duplication in the O174L gene were confirmed that have so far been detected only in sequences from Poland (including Western Poland). Epidemiological investigations that include estimated postmortem intervals of wild boar carcasses of infected animals suggest that ASFV had been introduced into Germany in the first half of July 2020 or even earlier.

Stability of African Swine Fever Virus in Carcasses of Domestic Pigs and Wild Boar Experimentally Infected with the ASFV "Estonia 2014" Isolate

Europe is currently experiencing a long-lasting African swine fever (ASF) epidemic, both in domestic pigs and wild boar. There is great concern that carcasses of infected wild boar may act as long-term virus reservoirs in the environment. We evaluated the tenacity of ASF virus (ASFV) in tissues and body fluids from experimentally infected domestic pigs and wild boar, which were stored on different matrices and at different temperatures. Samples were analysed at regular intervals for viral genome and infectious virus. ASFV was most stable in spleen or muscles stored at -20 °C and in blood stored at 4 °C. In bones stored at -20 °C, infectious virus was detected for up to three months, and at 4 °C for up to one month, while at room temperature (RT), no infectious virus could be recovered after one week. Skin stored at -20 °C, 4 °C and RT remained infectious for up to three, six and three months, respectively. In urine and faeces, no infectious virus was recovered after one week, irrespective of the matrix. In conclusion, tissues and organs from decomposing carcasses that persist in the environment for a long time can be a source of infection for several months, especially at low temperatures.