Toxoplasmosis epidemic in a population of urbanised allied rock-wallabies (Petrogale assimilis) on Magnetic Island (Yunbenun), North Queensland

A mortality event involving 23 allied rock-wallabies (Petrogale assimilis) displaying neurological signs and sudden death occurred in late April to May 2021 in a suburban residential area directly adjacent to Magnetic Island National Park, on Magnetic Island (Yunbenun), North Queensland, Australia. Three allied rock-wallabies were submitted for necropsy, and in all three cases, the cause of death was disseminated toxoplasmosis. This mortality event was unusual because only a small, localised population of native wallabies inhabiting a periurban area on a tropical island in the Great Barrier Reef World Heritage Area were affected. A disease investigation determined the outbreak was likely linked to the presence of free-ranging feral and domesticated cats inhabiting the area. There were no significant deaths of other wallabies or wildlife in the same or other parts of Magnetic Island (Yunbenun) at the time of the outbreak. This is the first reported case of toxoplasmosis in allied rock-wallabies (Petrogale assimilis), and this investigation highlights the importance of protecting native wildlife species from an infectious and potentially fatal parasitic disease.

The spectral underpinnings of pathogen spread on animal networks

Predicting what factors promote or protect populations from infectious disease is a fundamental epidemiological challenge. Social networks, where nodes represent hosts and edges represent direct or indirect contacts between them, are important in quantifying these aspects of infectious disease dynamics. However, how network structure and epidemic parameters interact in empirical networks to promote or protect animal populations from infectious disease remains a challenge. Here we draw on advances in spectral graph theory and machine learning to build predictive models of pathogen spread on a large collection of empirical networks from across the animal kingdom. We show that the spectral features of an animal network are powerful predictors of pathogen spread for a variety of hosts and pathogens and can be a valuable proxy for the vulnerability of animal networks to pathogen spread. We validate our findings using interpretable machine learning techniques and provide a flexible web application for animal health practitioners to assess the vulnerability of a particular network to pathogen spread.

Optimizing testing strategies for early detection of disease outbreaks in animal trade networks via MCMC

The animal trades between farms and other livestock holdings form a complex livestock trade network. The movement of animals between trade actors plays an important role in the spread of infectious diseases among premises. Particularly, the outbreak of silent diseases that have no clinically obvious symptoms in the animal trade system should be diagnosed by taking special tests. In practice, the authorities regularly conduct examinations on a random number of farms to make sure that there was no outbreak in the system. However, these actions, which aim to discover and block a disease cascade, are yet far from the effective and optimum solution and often fail to prevent epidemics. A testing strategy is defined as making decisions about distributing the fixed testing budget N between farms/nodes in the network. In this paper, first, we apply different heuristics for selecting sentinel farms on real and synthetic pig-trade networks and evaluate them by simulating disease spreading via the SI epidemic model. Later, we propose a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) based testing strategy with the aim of early detection of outbreaks. The experimental results show that the proposed method can reasonably well decrease the size of the outbreak on both the realistic synthetic and real trade data. A targeted selection of an N/52 fraction of nodes in the real pig-trade network based on the MCMC or simulated annealing can improve the performance of a baseline strategy by 89%. The best heuristic-based testing strategy results in a 75% reduction in the average size of the outbreak compared to that of the baseline testing strategy.

Spatio-Temporal Epidemiology of the Spread of African Swine Fever in Wild Boar and the Role of Environmental Factors in South Korea

Since the first confirmation of African swine fever (ASF) in domestic pig farms in South Korea in September 2019, ASF continues to expand and most notifications have been reported in wild boar populations. In this study, we first performed a spatio-temporal cluster analysis to understand ASF spread in wild boar. Secondly, generalized linear logistic regression (GLLR) model analysis was performed to identify environmental factors contributing to cluster formation. In the meantime, the basic reproduction number (R₀) for each cluster was estimated to understand the growth of the epidemic. The cluster analysis resulted in the detection of 17 spatio-temporal clusters. The GLLR model analysis identified factors influencing cluster formation and indicated the possibility of estimating ASF epidemic areas based on environmental conditions. In a scenario only considering direct transmission among wild boar, R₀ ranged from 1.01 to 1.5 with an average of 1.10, while, in another scenario including indirect transmission via an infected carcass, R₀ ranged from 1.03 to 4.38 with an average of 1.56. We identified factors influencing ASF expansion based on spatio-temporal clusters. The results obtained would be useful for selecting priority areas for ASF control and would greatly assist in identifying efficient vaccination areas in the future.

The role of livestock movements in the spread of Rift Valley fever virus in animals and humans in Mayotte, 2018-19

Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a vector-borne viral disease of major animal and public health importance. In 2018–19, it caused an epidemic in both livestock and human populations of the island of Mayotte. Using Bayesian modelling approaches, we assessed the spatio-temporal pattern of RVF virus (RVFV) infection in livestock and human populations across the island, and factors shaping it. First, we assessed if (i) livestock movements, (ii) spatial proximity from communes with infected animals, and (iii) livestock density were associated with the temporal sequence of RVFV introduction into Mayotte communes’ livestock populations. Second, we assessed whether the rate of human infection was associated with (a) spatial proximity from and (b) livestock density of communes with infected animals. Our analyses showed that the temporal sequence of RVFV introduction into communes’ livestock populations was associated with livestock movements and spatial proximity from communes with infected animals, with livestock movements being associated with the best model fit. Moreover, the pattern of human cases was associated with their spatial proximity from communes with infected animals, with the risk of human infection sharply increasing if livestock in the same or close communes were infected. This study highlights the importance of understanding livestock movement networks in informing the design of risk-based RVF surveillance programs.

Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a vector-borne zoonotic disease, endemic in many sub-Saharan Africa regions with substantial outbreaks. RVF virus (RVFV) is transmitted to animals primarily by the bite of infected mosquitos, whereas direct or indirect contact with infected animals forms the primary route of RVFV transmission to humans. In 2018–19, Mayotte, an archipelago in the Indian Ocean between Madagascar and the coast of Eastern Africa, experienced an RVF epidemic in both livestock and humans. In this study, we investigated factors shaping the spatio-temporal pattern of RVFV infection in livestock and human populations across Mayotte. The diffusion of RVFV through Mayotte’s livestock population was associated with livestock movements and, potentially to a lesser extent, spatial proximity from communes with infected animals. Moreover, the pressure of infection on humans was the highest if nearby livestock were infected. This study highlights the value of accounting for the structure of livestock movement networks in the surveillance of zoonotic diseases at the human-animal interface, and the need for One Health approaches.

Spatiotemporal reconstruction and transmission dynamics during the 2016-17 H5N8 highly pathogenic avian influenza epidemic in Italy

Effective control of avian diseases in domestic populations requires understanding of the transmission dynamics facilitating viral emergence and spread. In 2016-17, Italy experienced a significant avian influenza epidemic caused by a highly pathogenic A(H5N8) virus, which affected domestic premises housing around 2.7 million birds, primarily in the north-eastern regions with the highest density of poultry farms (Lombardy, Emilia-Romagna and Veneto). We perform integrated analyses of genetic, spatiotemporal and host data within a Bayesian phylogenetic framework. Using continuous and discrete phylogeography, we estimate the locations of movements responsible for the spread and persistence of the epidemic. The information derived from these analyses on rates of transmission between regions through time can be used to assess the success of control measures. Using an approach based on phylogenetic-temporal distances between domestic cases, we infer the presence of cryptic wild bird-mediated transmission, information that can be used to complement existing epidemiological methods for distinguishing transmission within the domestic population from incursions across the wildlife-domestic interface, a common challenge in veterinary epidemiology. Spatiotemporal reconstruction of the epidemic reveals a highly skewed distribution of virus movements with a high proportion of shorter distance local movements interspersed with occasional long-distance dispersal events associated with wild birds. We also show how such inference be used to identify possible instances of human-mediated movements where distances between phylogenetically linked domestic cases are unusually high.

Spatial association between sporotrichosis in cats and in human during a Brazilian epidemics

Sporotrichosis is a subcutaneous granulomatous disease caused by the fungus Sporothrix spp. In Brazil, S. brasiliensis is reported in regions of outbreaks and epidemics in the zoonotic form of the disease where cats play an important role in the transmission of the disease to humans. Therefore, it is important to assess how the presence of infected cats impacts the risk for sporotrichosis in humans. The objective of this study was to analyze the spatial association of sporotrichosis in cats and in humans from Belo Horizonte, a Brazilian city where an epidemics of sporotrichosis occurs since the first human case register in 2015, through an inhomogeneous Poisson process model. Feline and human cases of sporotrichosis recorded between January 2016 and June 2019 were georeferenced by address and spatial point patterns were generated. Feline case intensity and human demographic density were calculated using a kernel smoothed estimate. The distance to the nearest feline case was also compute. Model parameters were estimated by Maximum Likelihood Estimate. The model validation was performed by the evaluation of partial residual, leverage and influence measure. There were 343 cases of cats and 135 human cases of sporotrichosis. The average incidence of human sporotrichosis in the period was 1.343 per 100 thousand inhabitants, which is relatively low in relation to the population, but higher than that observed in other regions in zoonotic outbreak of the disease. The southern region of the municipality has a higher intensity of feline cases. According to the fitted model, the risk for human sporotrichosis is greater when at distances very close to a feline case, with a virtually stable effect for distances greater than 1 km. Regarding the intensity of feline cases there is a gradual increase in risk as the intensity of cases increases. From the leverage analysis it was observed that the model was particularly sensitive to the occurrence of human cases in the south and east regions, places with extreme values ​​of covariates. Poisson point process model seems to be a reasonable approach in spatial epidemiology when multiple sources of infection are involved, and there is a low incidence of the disease as long as it is reasonable to assume independence between cases. Interventions for disease prevention and control in humans are suggested to encompass disease control in cats and the search for feline cases, focused on diagnosis and control, close to reported human cases.

The uneasy coexistence of predators and pathogens

Disease and predation are both highly important in ecology, and pathogens with multiple host species have turned out to be common. Nonetheless, the interplay between multi-host epidemics and predation has received relatively little attention. Here, we analyse a model of a predator-prey system with disease in both prey and predator populations and determine reasonable parameter values using allometric mass scaling relations. Our analysis focuses on the possibility of extinction events rather than the linear stability of the model equations, and we derive approximate relations for the parameter values at which we expect these events to occur. We find that if the predator is a specialist, epidemics frequently drive the predator species to extinction. If the predator has an additional, immune prey species, predators will usually survive. Coexistence of predator and disease is impossible in the single-prey model. We conclude that for the prey species, carrying a pathogen can be an effective weapon against predators, and that being a generalist is a major advantage for a predator in the event of an epidemic affecting the prey or both species.

Vaccination and monitoring strategies for epidemic prevention and detection in the Channel Island fox (Urocyon littoralis)

Disease transmission and epidemic prevention are top conservation concerns for wildlife managers, especially for small, isolated populations. Previous studies have shown that the course of an epidemic within a heterogeneous host population is strongly influenced by whether pathogens are introduced to regions of relatively high or low host densities. This raises the question of how disease monitoring and vaccination programs are influenced by spatial heterogeneity in host distributions. We addressed this question by modeling vaccination and monitoring strategies for the Channel Island fox (Urocyon littoralis), which has a history of substantial population decline due to introduced disease. We simulated various strategies to detect and prevent epidemics of rabies and canine distemper using a spatially explicit model, which was parameterized from field studies. Increasing sentinel monitoring frequency, and to a lesser degree, the number of monitored sentinels from 50 to 150 radio collared animals, reduced the time to epidemic detection and percentage of the fox population infected at the time of detection for both pathogens. Fox density at the location of pathogen introduction had little influence on the time to detection, but a large influence on how many foxes had become infected by the detection day, especially when sentinels were monitored relatively infrequently. The efficacy of different vaccination strategies was heavily influenced by local host density at the site of pathogen entry. Generally, creating a vaccine firewall far away from the site of pathogen entry was the least effective strategy. A firewall close to the site of pathogen entry was generally more effective than a random distribution of vaccinated animals when pathogens entered regions of high host density, but not when pathogens entered regions of low host density. These results highlight the importance of considering host densities at likely locations of pathogen invasion when designing disease management plans.

Associated factors and spatial patterns of the epidemic sporotrichosis in a high density human populated area: A cross-sectional study from 2016 to 2018

An epidemiological characterization of human and feline sporotrichosis was carried out between 2016 and 2018, in a high density-populated area in Brazil. Professionals were trained to identify suspect cats and notify vets to interview the owners and collect swabs of the wounds from these animals. Mycological cultures were performed, and colonies identified as Sporothrix spp. Subsequently, data regarding the outcome from suspect animals were collected. Confirmed cases of human sporotrichosis (56) were also counted and analyzed for spatial distribution. 118 positive animals were observed. The prevalence of feline sporotrichosis was 8.36 ‰ (CI 95 %, 5.38-9.55 ‰). The odds for being positive in animals that lived only partially at home were 3.02 times greater than for those cats without access to the street (OR 3.02, CI 95 % 1,96-10,43). There was no statistically significant association between environmental variables and positive diagnosis, corroborating the hypothesis that direct transmission by infected cats plays a greater role in the occurrence and continuous outbreaks of sporotrichosis in Brazil. Among the positive animals, 61.90 % (CI 95 % 58.95-64.96) died, and they had an odds to die in the next six months 6.30 times greater than negative animals (p < 0.05, OR 6.30, CI 95 % 2,79-14,42). The case fatality rate was 55.08 % in cats (CI 95 % 49.20-51.15). The cause-specific death rate was 4.6 ‰ in cats (CI 95 % 3.4-6 ‰). Only 7.62 % (CI 95 % 7.12-8.16) positive cats were treated and cured. Among dead positive animals, 29.23 % were inappropriately discarded. In the study period 56 human cases were recorded in the Barreiro region. Regions with highest prevalence of feline sporotrichosis, had greater frequencies of both human and feline cases. This is the first report on the epidemic of sporotrichosis in Minas Gerais, Brazil. The free offer for treatment and veterinary care for these animals should be taken into consideration, as well as the collection and incineration of the dead ones, as measures of public health, followed by the guidance and care for the human patient.

Genome Characteristics and Evolution of Pseudorabies Virus Strains in Eastern China from 2017 to 2019

Since late 2011, outbreaks of pseudorabies virus (PRV) have occurred in southern China causing major economic losses to the pig industry. We previously reported that variant PRV forms and recombination in China could be the source of continued epidemics. Here, we analyzed samples from intensive pig farms in eastern China between 2017 and 2019, and sequenced the main glycoproteins (gB, gC, gD, and gE) to study the evolution characteristics of PRV. Based on the gC gene, we found that PRV variants belong to clade 2 and detected a founder effect during by the PRV epidemic. In addition, we detected inter- and intra-clade recombination; in particular, inter-clade recombination in the gB genes of strains FJ-ZXF and FJ-W2, which were recombinant with clade 1 strains. We also found specific amino-acid changes and positively selected sites, possibly associated with functional changes. This analysis of the emergence of PRV in China illustrates the need for continuous monitoring and the development of vaccines against specific variants of PRV.

African Swine Fever: Fast and Furious or Slow and Steady?

Since the introduction of African swine fever (ASF) into Georgia in 2007, the disease has been spreading in an unprecedented way. Many countries that are still free from the disease fear the emergence of ASF in their territory either in domestic pigs or in wild boar. In the past, ASF was often described as being a highly contagious disease with mortality often up to 100%. However, the belief that the disease might enter a naïve population and rapidly affect the entire susceptible population needs to be critically reviewed. The current ASF epidemic in wild boar, but also the course of ASF within outbreaks in domestic pig holdings, suggest a constant, but relatively slow spread. Moreover, the results of several experimental and field studies support the impression that the spread of ASF is not always fast. ASF spread and its speed depend on various factors concerning the host, the virus, and also the environment. Many of these factors and their effects are not fully understood. For this review, we collated published information regarding the spreading speed of ASF and the factors that are deemed to influence the speed of ASF spread and tried to clarify some issues and open questions in this respect.

Deathbed choice by ASF-infected wild boar can help find carcasses

African swine fever (ASF) is a fatal disease infectious to wild and domesticated suids. This disease entered the European Union in 2014 and recently reached western Europe, with the first cases observed in Belgium in September 2018. Carcasses of ASF-infected wild boar play an important role in the spread and persistence of the virus in the environment. Thus, rapidly finding and removing carcasses is a crucial measure for effective ASF control. Using distribution modelling, we investigated whether the fine-scale distribution of ASF-infected animals can be predicted and support wild boar carcass searches. Our results suggest that ASF-infected wild boar selected deathbeds in cool and moist habitats; thus, deathbed choice was mostly influenced by topographic and water-dependent covariates. Furthermore, we show that in the case of an epidemic, it is important to quickly collect a minimum of 75-100 carcasses with exact locations to build a well-performing and efficient carcass distribution model. The proposed model provides an indication of where carcasses are most likely to be found and can be used as a guide to strategically allocate resources.

Network analyses to quantify effects of host movement in multilevel disease transmission models using foot and mouth disease in Cameroon as a case study

The dynamics of infectious diseases are greatly influenced by the movement of both susceptible and infected hosts. To accurately represent disease dynamics among a mobile host population, detailed movement models have been coupled with disease transmission models. However, a number of different host movement models have been proposed, each with their own set of assumptions and results that differ from the other models. Here, we compare two movement models coupled to the same disease transmission model using network analyses. This application of network analysis allows us to evaluate the fit and accuracy of the movement model in a multilevel modeling framework with more detail than established statistical modeling fitting methods. We used data that detailed mobile pastoralists’ movements as input for 100 stochastic simulations of a Spatio-Temporal Movement (STM) model and 100 stochastic simulations of an Individual Movement Model (IMM). Both models represent dynamic movement and subsequent contacts. We generated networks in which nodes represent camps and edges represent the distance between camps. We simulated pathogen transmission over these networks and tested five network metrics–strength, betweenness centrality, three-step reach, density, and transitivity–to determine which could predict disease simulation outcomes and thereby be used to correlate model simulation results with disease transmission simulations. We found that strength, network density, and three-step reach of movement model results correlated with the final epidemic size of outbreak simulations. Betweenness centrality only weakly correlated for the IMM model. Transitivity only weakly correlated for the STM model and time-varying IMM model metrics. We conclude that movement models coupled with disease transmission models can affect disease transmission results and should be carefully considered and vetted when modeling pathogen spread in mobile host populations. Strength, network density, and three-step reach can be used to evaluate movement models before disease simulations to predict final outbreak sizes. These findings can contribute to the analysis of multilevel models across systems.

Epidemics of infectious disease vary geographically and vary through time. A large part of this variation is caused by movement of individuals who are susceptible to the disease or infected with the disease. To study how movement affects epidemics, researchers often combine movement models with transmission models. However, multiple movement models have been proposed, and their effect on infectious disease model output is not well understood. Here, we combine two different movement models that we developed to represent mobile pastoralists in the Far North Region, Cameroon, with the same disease transmission model. We use network metrics to test how different movement models can affect the output of the disease transmission model. We found that three metrics could be applied to movement model output in order to predict epidemic model output. We conclude that movement models coupled with disease transmission models can affect disease transmission results and should be carefully considered and vetted when modeling epidemics.

Threshold phenomena with respect to the initiation of depopulation in a simple model of foot-and-mouth disease

Depopulation is one of the important interventions for the outbreak of animal diseases. Simulation models using actual case scenarios conclude that early depopulation is the most efficient in preventing the spread of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD). However, the long delay in its initiation was often seen in the actual cases and the theoretical analyses of FMD epidemiology with depopulation needs further elaboration. Here, we investigated the qualitative features of epidemic models when depopulation at a fixed capacity was delayed. We built a simple deterministic model for FMD based on state-transition, the SEIIR model whose unit is a single farm. The model settings and parameters were determined using the data from the 2010 epidemic in Miyazaki, Japan. By numerical calculation, we showed the existence of the threshold phenomenon with respect to delays in the initiation of depopulation and if the initiation of full-fledged depopulation surpasses the certain critical timing, the final size of the epidemic rapidly increases leading to a "catastrophic situation". We also revealed the mechanism of the threshold phenomenon from the relationship between the depopulation capacity and the increasing rate of infection. Although it can be delayed with lower transmission coefficients, the threshold phenomenon still exists. Thus, the existence of the critical timing for depopulation appears to be a universal feature of FMD epidemiology when depopulation is used as the main treatment for disease control.

Asymptotic analysis of endemic equilibrium to a brucellosis model

Brucellosis is one of the worlds major infectious and contagious bacterial disease. In order to study different types of brucellosis transmission models among sheep, we propose a deterministic model to investigate the transmission dynamics of brucellosis with the flock of sheep divided into basic ewes and other sheep. The global dynamical behavior of this model is given: including the basic repro-duction number, the existence and uniqueness of positive equilibrium, the global asymptotic stability of the equilibrium. We prove the uniqueness of positive endemic equilibrium through using proof by contradiction, and the global stability of endemic equilibrium by using Lyapunov function. Especially, we give the specific coefficients of global Lyapunov function, and show the calculation method of these specific coefficients. By running numerical simulations for the cases with the basic reproduction number to demonstrate the global stability of the equilibria and the unique endemic equilibrium, re-spectively. By some sensitivity analysis of the basic reproduction number on parameters, we find that vaccination rate of sheep and seropositive detection rate of recessive infected sheep are very important factor for brucellosis.

Threshold dynamics of a time-delayed hantavirus infection model in periodic environments

We formulate and study a mathematical model for the propagation of hantavirus infection in the mouse population. This model includes seasonality, incubation period, direct transmission (con-tacts between individuals) and indirect transmission (through the environment). For the time-periodic model, the basic reproduction number R₀ is defined as the spectral radius of the next generation oper-ator. Then, we show the virus is uniformly persistent when R₀ > 1 while tends to die out if R₀ < 1. When there is no seasonality, that is, all coefficients are constants, we obtain the explicit expression for the basic reproduction number R₀, such that if R₀ < 1, then the virus-free equilibrium is glob-ally asymptotically stable, but if R₀ > 1, the endemic equilibrium is globally attractive. Numerical simulations indicate that prolonging the incubation period may be helpful in the virus control. Some sensitivity analysis of R₀ is performed.

Transmission on empirical dynamic contact networks is influenced by data processing decisions

Dynamic contact data can be used to inform disease transmission models, providing insight into the dynamics of infectious diseases. Such data often requires extensive processing for use in models or analysis. Therefore, processing decisions can potentially influence the topology of the contact network and the simulated disease transmission dynamics on the network. In this study, we examine how four processing decisions, including temporal sampling window (TSW), spatial threshold of contact (SpTh), minimum contact duration (MCD), and temporal aggregation (daily or hourly) influence the information content of contact data (indicated by changes in entropy) as well as disease transmission model dynamics. We found that changes made to information content by processing decisions translated to significant impacts to the transmission dynamics of disease models using the contact data. In particular, we found that SpTh had the largest independent influence on information content, and that some output metrics (R₀, time to peak infection) were more sensitive to changes in information than others (epidemic extent). These findings suggest that insights gained from transmission modeling using dynamic contact data can be influenced by processing decisions alone, emphasizing the need to carefully consideration them prior to using contact-based models to conduct analyses, compare different datasets, or inform policy decisions.

A simple method to estimate the number of doses to include in a bank of vaccines. The case of Lumpy Skin Disease in France

A simple method to estimate the size of the vaccine bank needed to control an epidemic of an exotic infectious disease in case of introduction into a country is presented. The method was applied to the case of a Lumpy Skin disease (LSD) epidemic in France. The size of the stock of vaccines needed was calculated based on a series of simple equations that use some trigonometric functions and take into account the spread of the disease, the time required to obtain good vaccination coverage and the cattle density in the affected region. Assuming a 7-weeks period to vaccinate all the animals and a spread of the disease of 7.3 km/week, the vaccination of 740 716 cattle would be enough to control an epidemic of LSD in France in 90% of the simulations (608 196 cattle would cover 75% of the simulations). The results of this simple method were then validated using a dynamic simulation model, which served as reference for the calculation of the vaccine stock required. The differences between both models in different scenarios, related with the time needed to vaccinate the animals, ranged from 7% to 10.5% more vaccines using the simple method to cover 90% of the simulations, and from 9.0% to 13.8% for 75% of the simulations. The model is easy to use and may be adapted for the control of different diseases in different countries, just by using some simple formulas and few input data.

Serological evidence of inter-epizootic/inter-epidemic circulation of Rift Valley fever virus in domestic cattle in Kyela and Morogoro, Tanzania

Background

Tanzania is among the Rift Valley fever (RVF) epizootic/endemic countries in sub Saharan Africa, where RVF disease outbreaks occur within a range of 3 to 17-year intervals. Detection of Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) antibodies in animals in regions with no previous history of outbreaks raises the question of whether the disease is overlooked due to lack-of effective surveillance systems, or if there are strains of RVFV with low pathogenicity. Furthermore, which vertebrate hosts are involved in the inter-epidemic and inter-epizootic maintenance of RVFV? In our study region, the Kyela and Morogoro districts in Tanzania, no previous RVF outbreaks have been reported.

Methodology

The study was conducted from June 2014 to October 2015 in the Kyela and Morogoro districts, Tanzania. Samples (n = 356) were retrieved from both the local breed of zebu cattle (Bos indicus) and Bos indicus/Bos Taurus cross breed. RVFV antibodies were analyzed by two enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) approaches. Initially, samples were analyzed by a RVFV multi-species competition ELISA (cELISA), which detected both RVFV IgG and IgM antibodies. All serum samples that were positive with the cELISA method were specifically analysed for the presence of RVFV IgM antibodies to trace recent infection. A plaque reduction neutralization assay (PRNT₈₀) was performed to determine presence of RVFV neutralizing antibodies in all cELISA positive samples.

Findings

Overall RVFV seroprevalence rate in cattle by cELISA in both districts was 29.2% (104 of 356) with seroprevalence rates of 33% (47/147) in the Kyela district and 27% (57/209) in the Morogoro district. In total, 8.4% (30/356) of all cattle sampled had RVFV IgM antibodies, indicating current disease transmission. When segregated by districts, the IgM antibody seroprevalence was 2.0% (3/147) and 12.9% (27/209) in Kyela and Morogoro districts respectively. When the 104 cELISA positive samples were analyzed by PRNT₈₀ to confirm that RVFV-specific antibodies were present, the majority (89%, 93/104) had RVFV neutralising antibodies.

Conclusion

The results provided evidence of widespread prevalence of RVFV antibody among cattle during an inter-epizootic/inter-epidemic period in Tanzania in regions with no previous history of outbreaks. There is a need for further investigations of RVFV maintenance and transmission in vertebrates and vectors during the long inter-epizootic/inter-epidemic periods.

The RVFV maintenance between inter-epizootic/inter-epidemic periods is not fully understood, despite the widely hypothesized belief of maintenance via transovarially infected Aedes mosquito eggs. Increasing serological evidence however, suggests that there could be continuous virus circulation throughout these periods in domestic ruminants, wild animals and humans both in areas with and without known history of RVF outbreaks. In some countries, RVFV antibodies have been demonstrated in livestock raised in areas where no clinical disease has ever been reported. However, in Tanzania, RVFV antibodies in livestock have been demonstrated only in areas with history of RVF outbreaks, raising the question of whether the disease is not present, is overlooked due to lack of effective surveillance systems, or whether there are strains of RVFV with low pathogenicity that do not cause detectable clinical cases in non-outbreak areas. We report here inter-epizootic/inter-epidemic RVFV antibody prevalence in non-vaccinated cattle from areas with no previous RVF outbreak in Tanzania and demonstrate recent virus circulation by detection of IgM antibodies. The differences in RVFV seroprevalence in different study locations suggest local factors that favour the virus amplification and transmission within those areas.

Linking animal diseases and social instability

Social instability occurs as a consequence of war, civil strife or natural disasters such as earthquakes, floods and droughts. Animal diseases, including zoonoses, can be both a precursor to social instability and a result of social instability. Coping mechanisms, such as sound policies, trust in government, and robust infrastructure break down at times of civil instability. Such breakdowns often lead to a decline in both public health and the food and agricultural livestock base, thus creating a vicious cycle that involves inadequate nutrition, threatened livelihoods, and fewer opportunities for safe trade. This article is principally a discussion of a theoretical nature on the dynamics between animal diseases and social instability. Based on their experience of working for the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), the authors provide numerous examples of the connection between the two, mostly in countries that have fragile environments and are experiencing protracted crises. Disease has a direct and immediate effect on a community, but, in addition, if the community is not able to recover from the impact of a disease on their health and livelihoods, the consequences of an outbreak can persist even after the disease is no longer present. Stability, therefore, depends on a variety of factors, including the ability of a community to overcome the effects of a disease outbreak or other destabilising event. The FAO approach to helping families and communities to cope with the destabilizing effects of animal diseases is to build resilience, particularly amongst the most vulnerable households. This requires individuals and governments to gain a better understanding of what drives disease at the interface between human and animal health. In addition, it requires governments to invest in social protection programmes, establish a long-term risk reduction strategy that decreases vulnerability, and improve the sustainability of safe agricultural and marketing practices.

On the dynamics of brucellosis infection in bison population with vertical transmission and culling

We introduce a new mathematical modeling framework that seek to improve our quantitative understanding of the influence of chronic brucellosis and culling control on brucellosis dynamics in periodic and non-periodic environments. We conduct both epidemic and endemic analysis, with a focus on the threshold dynamics characterized by the basic reproduction numbers. In addition, we also perform an optimal control study to explore optimal culling strategy in periodic and non-periodic environment.

Forecasting the 2001 Foot-and-Mouth Disease Epidemic in the UK

Near real-time epidemic forecasting approaches are needed to respond to the increasing number of infectious disease outbreaks. In this paper, we retrospectively assess the performance of simple phenomenological models that incorporate early sub-exponential growth dynamics to generate short-term forecasts of the 2001 foot-and-mouth disease epidemic in the UK. For this purpose, we employed the generalized-growth model (GGM) for pre-peak predictions and the generalized-Richards model (GRM) for post-peak predictions. The epidemic exhibits a growth-decelerating pattern as the relative growth rate declines inversely with time. The uncertainty of the parameter estimates [Formula: see text] narrows down and becomes more precise using an increasing amount of data of the epidemic growth phase. Indeed, using only the first 10-15 days of the epidemic, the scaling of growth parameter (p) displays wide uncertainty with the confidence interval for p ranging from values ~ 0.5 to 1.0, indicating that less than 15 epidemic days of data are not sufficient to discriminate between sub-exponential (i.e., p < 1) and exponential growth dynamics (i.e., p = 1). By contrast, using 20, 25, or 30 days of epidemic data, it is possible to recover estimates of p around 0.6 and the confidence interval is substantially below the exponential growth regime. Local and national bans on the movement of livestock and a nationwide cull of infected and contiguous premises likely contributed to the decelerating trajectory of the epidemic. The GGM and GRM provided useful 10-day forecasts of the epidemic before and after the peak of the epidemic, respectively. Short-term forecasts improved as the model was calibrated with an increasing length of the epidemic growth phase. Phenomenological models incorporating generalized-growth dynamics are useful tools to generate short-term forecasts of epidemic growth in near real time, particularly in the context of limited epidemiological data as well as information about transmission mechanisms and the effects of control interventions.

Prevalence studies for Theileria orientalis conducted during the early stages of the 2012 New Zealand epidemic of Theileria associated bovine anaemia

Since 1982 there have been two epidemics of bovine anaemia associated with Theileria orientalis infection (TABA) in New Zealand. The latest and more serious epidemic started in 2012 and is associated with the T. orientalis (Ikeda) type. In 2013 the Ministry for Primary Industries (MPI) carried out several epidemiological investigations on the TABA epidemic, which included a series of on-farm herd prevalence studies. The aims of this paper are to present and summarise the results of these herd prevalence studies. The data were collected from March 2013 to September 2013 and comprised 26 farms. For 21/26 of these farms, a T. orientalis (Ikeda) positive index case of TABA precipitated the follow-up herd prevalence study. Each herd prevalence study involved a random sample of 10 cows for haematocrit, for piroplasm counts (number of Theileria infected RBCs per 1000 RBCs) and for PCR molecular diagnosis. Animals were diagnosed anaemic if the haematocrit ≤0.24. The results showed that for the index cases, the average haematocrit = 0.10 L/L and the average piroplasm count = 10.9 Theileria infected RBCs per 1000 RBCs, and for the herd prevalence studies the average haematocrit = 0.26 and the average piroplasm count = 6.9. The average herd prevalence of T. orientalis (Ikeda) PCR positive cattle and of anaemic cattle was 87% and 26% respectively. For dairy herds (n = 7 herds) it took, on average, 80 days for the within herd prevalence of anaemia to return to zero after the initial diagnosis. In conclusion the prevalence studies showed that infection rates and anaemia rates were already high in herds when the index case of TABA was observed. At the time, these prevalence studies significantly added to our understanding of the epidemiology of the evolving T. orientalis (Ikeda) epidemic and furthermore met the New Zealand MPI objective of being rapid and applied, fit for purpose and completed at a relatively low cost.

Estimation of French cattle herd immunity against bluetongue serotype 8 at the time of its re-emergence in 2015

BACKGROUND

From 2006 to 2010, France experienced two bluetongue epidemics caused by serotype 1 (BTV-1) and 8 (BTV-8) which were controlled by mass vaccination campaigns. After five years without any detected cases, a sick ram was confirmed in August 2015 to be infected by a BTV-8 strain almost identical to that circulating during the previous outbreak. By then, part of the French cattle population was expected to be still protected, since bluetongue antibodies are known to last for many years after natural infection or vaccination. The objective of this study was to estimate the proportion of cattle in France still immune to BTV-8 at the time of its re-emergence in 2015.

RESULTS

We used BTV group-specific cELISA results from 8525 cattle born before the vaccination ban in 2013 and 15,799 cattle born after the ban. Samples were collected from January to April 2016 to estimate seroprevalence per birth cohort. The overall seroprevalence in cattle at national and local levels was extrapolated from seroprevalence results per birth cohort and their respective proportion at each level. To indirectly assess pre-immune status of birth cohorts, we computed prevalence per birth cohort on infected farms in autumn 2015 using 1377 RT-PCR results. These revealed limited BTV circulation in 2015. Seroprevalence per birth cohort was likely to be connected to past exposure to natural infection and/or vaccination with higher seroprevalence levels in older animals. A seroprevalence of 95% was observed for animals born before 2008, of which > 90% were exposed to two compulsory vaccination campaigns in 2008-2010. None of the animals born before 2008 were found to be infected, unlike 19% of the young cattle which had never been vaccinated. This suggests that most ELISA-positive animals were pre-immune to BTV-8. We estimated that 18% (from 12% to 32% per département) of the French cattle population was probably pre-immune in 2015.

CONCLUSIONS

These results strongly suggest a persistence of antibodies for at least 5-6 years after natural infection or vaccination. The herd immunity of the French cattle population probably limited BTV circulation up to 2015, by which time more than 80% of cattle were naive.

Epizootics of Streptococcus agalactiae infection in captive rays from Queensland, Australia

The aim of this study was to describe two epizootics of high mortalities from infection with Streptococcus agalactiae, occurring in captive rays held in a marine display aquarium in south-east Queensland, Australia, in 2009 and 2010. Five different species of rays were affected, including mangrove whiprays (Himantura granulata), estuary rays (Dasyatis fluviorum), eastern shovelnose rays (Aptychotrema rostrata), white-spotted eagle rays (Aetobatus narinari) and blue-spotted mask rays (Neotrygon kuhlii). This report describes the history of both epizootics including collection, quarantine and husbandry of rays, the disease epizootics, clinico-pathological features of the disease, antimicrobial therapy, autogenous vaccine production, and laboratory studies including clinical and histopathology, bacteriology, PCR, molecular serotyping and sequencing of the bacterium S. agalactiae.

African Swine Fever Epidemic, Poland, 2014-2015

Epidemiologic and phylogenetic analyses suggest that the virus was repeatedly introduced and that the disease is maintained in wild boar.

In Poland, African swine fever (ASF) emerged in February 2014; by August 2015, the virus had been detected in >130 wild boar and in pigs in 3 backyard holdings. We evaluated ASF spread in Poland during these 18 months. Phylogenetic analysis indicated repeated incursions of genetically distinct ASF viruses of genotype II; the number of cases positively correlated wild boar density; and disease spread was very slow. More cases were reported during summer than autumn. The 18-month prevalence of ASF in areas under various animal movement restrictions was 18.6% among wild boar found dead or killed by vehicles and only 0.2% in hunted wild boar. Repeated introductions of the virus into the country, the primary role of wild boar in virus maintenance, and the slow spread of the disease indicate a need for enhanced biosecurity at pig holdings and continuous and intensive surveillance for fast detection of ASF.

Investigating the epidemiology of EI epidemic spread in the Province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan in 2015-16

EI in non-vaccinated population causes disruption and economic losses. To identify the risk factors associated with the EI epidemics in equids in Pakistan, a 1:1 matched case control study was conducted during 2015-2016. Including a total of 197 laboratory confirmed cases and negative controls, matched on the basis of geography, time of sampling, specie and age. A piloted questionnaire was used to collect data regarding risk factors associated with the occurrence of EI in face to face interviews. Conditional logistic regression was performed to analyze the data. A total of 16 out of 23 variables were found associated as risk factors in Univariable conditional logistic regression analysis. Multivariable conditional logistic-regression analysis was also performed. Monthly removal of manure doubles the risk of EI (EI) compared to its daily removal. Due to lack of vaccination; the spread of disease was favored by high equine density. Investigating the index-case it was recorded that infected cases were imported from Afghanistan. Most of these risk factors related to biosecurity and management were due to low awareness level regarding EI amongst the respondents. These findings are in line with the results of many other studies identifying similar risk factors for EI infection in various countries. Adopting protective practices, vaccination and controlling the risk factors identified in the present study could reduce the spread and future outbreaks of EI in Pakistan.

Environmental heterogeneity and variations in the velocity of bluetongue virus spread in six European epidemics

Several epidemics caused by different bluetongue virus (BTV) serotypes occurred in European ruminants since the early 2000. Studies on the spatial distribution of these vector-borne infections and the main vector species highlighted contrasted eco-climatic regions characterized by different dominant vector species. However, little work was done regarding the factors associated with the velocity of these epidemics. In this study, we aimed to quantify and compare the velocity of BTV epidemic that have affected different European countries under contrasted eco-climatic conditions and to relate these estimates to spatial factors such as temperature and host density. We used the thin plate spline regression interpolation method in combination with trend surface analysis to quantify the local velocity of different epidemics that have affected France (BTV-8 2007-2008, BTV-1 2008-2009), Italy (BTV-1 2014), Andalusia in Spain (BTV-1 2007) and the Balkans (BTV-4 2014). We found significant differences in the local velocity of BTV spread according to the country and epidemics, ranging from 7.9km/week (BTV-1 2014 Italy) to 24.4km/week (BTV-1 2008 France). We quantify and discuss the effect of temperature and local host density on this velocity.

West Nile virus epizootics in the Camargue (France) in 2015 and reinforcement of surveillance and control networks

West Nile virus (WNV) infection is a non-contagious disease mainly transmitted by the bites of infected mosquitoes from the genus Culex. The virus is maintained in a mosquito-bird-mosquito cycle, and can accidentally be transmitted to mammalian hosts. Among mammalian hosts, equines and humans are the most sensitive to WNV infection and can develop severe meningoencephalitis. As WNV infections are zoonotic and can be severe in humans and equines, West Nile fever is considered to be a public and animal health concern. After a silent period of almost ten years, WNV re-emerged in France at the periphery of the Camargue area during the summer of 2015, underlining the fact that the Camargue area creates favourable conditions for WNV emergence and amplification in France. The French Network for Epidemiological Surveillance of Equine Diseases (Réseau d'Épidémio-Surveillance en Pathologie Équine [RESPE]) facilitated the early detection of WNV cases in horses. In total, 49 horses were found to be infected; among them, 44 presented clinical signs, 41 with meningoencephalitis and three with hyperthermia only. Six horses among the 41 with nervous symptoms died from the disease or were euthanised (a case fatality rate of 14.6%). The authors describe the characteristics of the 2015 WNV epizootics, the early detection of the first WNV equine cases via the RESPE network and the coordination of WNV surveillance in France.

The impact of importation of live ruminants on the epizootiology of foot and mouth disease in Saudi Arabia

Approximately five million live ruminants are imported annually into Saudi Arabia. The majority of these animals are imported shortly before the pilgrimage season from Sudan and the Horn of Africa, where foot and mouth disease (FMD) is known to be enzootic. This study was designed to investigate the impact of the importation of these live ruminants on the epizootiology of FMD in Saudi Arabia. The authors carried out antibody testing on a total of 480 sheep and 233 cattle from the sacrificial livestock yards of the Saudi Project for Utilization of Hajj Meat, which performs ritual slaughter on behalf of pilgrims in the Holy City of Makkah. The results revealed that 136 (28.3%) of the 480 sheep tested were serologically positive for FMD, using an indirect enzymelinked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) (3ABC FMD ELISA). This included 17.7% of Sawakani sheep (imported from Sudan) and 40.9% of Barbari sheep (imported from the Horn of Africa). Among the cattle, 120 (51.5%) of 233 animals tested positive for FMD virus (FMDV) antibodies. The 120 seropositive cattle included all clinically suspected cattle and 62 (35.4%) symptom-free, in-contact cattle. The findings highlight the risks associated with the annual importation of live ruminants from FMD-enzootic areas. The risks include the possible introduction of new exotic FMDV serotypes, particularly when potential carriers or subclinically infected animals are considered. An understanding of the epidemiology of different strains and the ability to track their movement between geographical regions is essential for the development of efficient control strategies for the disease. Therefore, genotyping of FMDV strains isolated from imported and local animals is recommended.

Disease surveillance in England and Wales, July 2017

Current and emerging issues: reminder of the notifiable status of porcine epidemic diarrhoeaHighlights from the scanning surveillance networkUpdate on international disease threatsReview of animal health threats by the Veterinary Risk Group These are among matters discussed in the Animal and Plant Health Agency's (APHA's) disease surveillance report for July 2017.

'High-health, high-performance' horses: risk mitigation strategies for OIE-listed diseases

The 'high-health, high-performance' (HHP) horse concept has been developed by the World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE) together with the F6ddration Equestre Internationale and the International Federation of Horseracing Authorities. This concept is outlined in the OIE Terrestrial Animal Health Code (Chapter 4.16). It aims to address impediments to the international movement of competition horses through a harmonised, practically feasible, globally applicable framework based on simplified certification requirements for the temporary importation of HHP horses and for their return to their country of usual residence. Based on the principle of compartmentalisation, the high health status of these horses would be established by the application, at all times, of stringent health management practices and biosecurity measures to create and maintain a functional separation between horses within the defined compartment and all other equids. These provisions are intended to mitigate the risk of disease spread for most OIE-listed diseases. For six OIE-listed diseases (African horse sickness, equine influenza, equine infectious anaemia, equine piroplasmosis, glanders and Venezuelan equine encephalomyelitis), the OIE recommends disease-specific mitigation measures, which have been included in a model HHP Veterinary Certificate, to provide additional guarantees to mitigate the risk of disease spread. This article presents the HH P disease risk mitigation strategy. It demonstrates how continuous observance of the HHP biosecurity measures and health management practices provides a scientific rationale for limiting the list of diseases for which HHP horses should be screened with respect to their temporary importation for competition purposes.

Comparison between the 2013-2014 and 2009-2012 annual porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus epidemics in a cohort of sow herds in the United States

The purpose of this study was to describe the 2013/2014 porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV) epidemic in the United States and compare it with the previous 4 y of data from 2009 to 2012. A total of 371 herds participated in the study, representing nearly 1.2 million sows in 15 States. There were significantly fewer PRRSV cases during this study period and the onset of the annual epidemic was delayed approximately 3 wk. Cluster analysis revealed a pattern similar to previous years. The roles of spurious observations, increased awareness of PRRSV epidemics, and porcine epidemic diarrhea virus detection in the United States swine herd are considered.

Serotype-Specific Transmission and Waning Immunity of Endemic Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus in Cameroon

Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) causes morbidity and mortality in a range of animals and threatens local economies by acting as a barrier to international trade. The outbreak in the United Kingdom in 2001 that cost billions to control highlighted the risk that the pathogen poses to agriculture. In response, several mathematical models have been developed to parameterize and predict both transmission dynamics and optimal disease control. However, a lack of understanding of the multi-strain etiology prevents characterization of multi-strain dynamics. Here, we use data from FMDV serology in an endemic setting to probe strain-specific transmission and immunodynamics. Five serotypes of FMDV affect cattle in the Far North Region of Cameroon. We fit both catalytic and reverse catalytic models to serological data to estimate the force of infection and the rate of waning immunity, and to detect periods of sustained transmission. For serotypes SAT2, SAT3, and type A, a model assuming life-long immunity fit better. For serotypes SAT1 and type O, the better-fit model suggests that immunity may wane over time. Our analysis further indicates that type O has the greatest force of infection and the longest duration of immunity. Estimates for the force of infection were time-varying and indicated that serotypes SAT1 and O displayed endemic dynamics, serotype A displayed epidemic dynamics, and SAT2 and SAT3 did not sustain local chains of transmission. Since these results were obtained from the same population at the same time, they highlight important differences in transmission specific to each serotype. They also show that immunity wanes at rates specific to each serotype, which influences patterns of local persistence. Overall, this work shows that viral serotypes can differ significantly in their epidemiological and immunological characteristics. Patterns and processes that drive transmission in endemic settings must consider complex viral dynamics for accurate representation and interpretation.

Characteristics of Wind-Infective Farms of the 2006 Bluetongue Serotype 8 Epidemic in Northern Europe

Bluetongue is a Culicoides-borne viral disease of livestock. In 2006, northern Europe experienced a major outbreak of this disease with devastating effects on the livestock industry. The outbreak quickly spread over the region, primarily affecting cattle and sheep. A previous analysis of the role of vector flight and wind in the spread of this virus across northern Europe indicated that infection at 1,326 (65%) of the reported infected farms could be traced back to just 599 (29%) farms (wind-infective farms). Rather than focusing on presence or absence of vectors or difference between infected and non-infected farms, we investigate the zoological and environmental characteristics of these 599 wind-infective farms (which can be thought of as super-spreaders) in order to characterize what makes them distinct from non-infective farms. Differences in temperature, precipitation, and the density of sheep at individual farms were identified between these two groups. These environmental and zoological factors are known to affect vector abundance and may have promoted bluetongue virus transmission. Identifying such ecological differences can help in the description and quantification of relative risk in affected areas.

Spatial and temporal distribution of West Nile virus in horses in Israel (1997-2013)--from endemic to epidemics

With the rapid global spread of West Nile virus (WNV) and the endemic state it has acquired in new geographical areas, we hereby bring a thorough serological investigation of WNV in horses in a longstanding endemic region, such as Israel. This study evaluates the environmental and demographic risk factors for WNV infection in horses and suggests possible factors associated with the transition from endemic to epidemic state. West Nile virus seroprevalence in horses in Israel was determined throughout a period of more than a decade, before (1997) and after (2002 and 2013) the massive West Nile fever outbreak in humans and horses in 2000. An increase in seroprevalence was observed, from 39% (113/290) in 1997 to 66.1% (547/827) in 2002 and 85.5% (153/179) in 2013, with persistent significantly higher seroprevalence in horses situated along the Great Rift Valley (GRV) area, the major birds' migration route in Israel. Demographic risk factors included age and breed of the horse. Significantly lower spring precipitation was observed during years with increased human incidence rate that occurred between 1997–2007. Hence, we suggest referring to Israel as two WNV distinct epidemiological regions; an endemic region along the birds' migration route (GRV) and the rest of the country which perhaps suffers from cyclic epidemics. In addition, weather conditions, such as periods of spring drought, might be associated with the transition from endemic state to epidemic state of WNV.

The Mondrian matrix: Culicoides biting midge abundance and seasonal incidence during the 2006-2008 epidemic of bluetongue in the Netherlands

During the northern Europe epidemic of bluetongue (BT), Onderstepoort-type blacklight traps were used to capture Culicoides Latreille (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) biting midges weekly between November 2006 and December 2008 on 21 livestock farms in the Netherlands. Proven and potential vectors for the bluetongue virus (BTV) comprised almost 80% of the midges collected: the Obsoletus complex, constituting C. obsoletus (Meigen) and C. scoticus Downes & Kettle (44.2%), C. dewulfi Goetghebuer (16.4%), C. chiopterus (Meigen) (16.3%) and C. pulicaris (Linnaeus) (0.1%). Half of the 24 commonest species of Culicoides captured completed only one (univoltine) or two (bivoltine) generations annually, whereas multivoltine species (including all BTV vectors) cycled through five to six generations (exceeding the one to four generations calculated in earlier decades). Whether this increment signals a change in the phenology of northern Europe Culicoides or simply is an adaptive response that manifests during warmer episodes, thus heightening periodically the incursive potential of midge-borne arboviruses, remains to be clarified. Culicoides duddingstoni Kettle & Lawson, C. grisescens Edwards, C. maritimus Kieffer, C. pallidicornis Kieffer and C. riethi Kieffer are new records for the biting midge fauna of the Netherlands. It is suggested that C. punctatus (Meigen) be added to the European list of vector Culicoides.

Rabies and canine distemper virus epidemics in the red fox population of northern Italy (2006-2010)

Since 2006 the red fox (Vulpes vulpes) population in north-eastern Italy has experienced an epidemic of canine distemper virus (CDV). Additionally, in 2008, after a thirteen-year absence from Italy, fox rabies was re-introduced in the Udine province at the national border with Slovenia. Disease intervention strategies are being developed and implemented to control rabies in this area and minimise risk to human health. Here we present empirical data and the epidemiological picture relating to these epidemics in the period 2006–2010. Of important significance for epidemiological studies of wild animals, basic mathematical models are developed to exploit information collected from the surveillance program on dead and/or living animals in order to assess the incidence of infection. These models are also used to estimate the rate of transmission of both diseases and the rate of vaccination, while correcting for a bias in early collection of CDV samples. We found that the rate of rabies transmission was roughly twice that of CDV, with an estimated effective contact between infected and susceptible fox leading to a new infection occurring once every 3 days for rabies, and once a week for CDV. We also inferred that during the early stage of the CDV epidemic, a bias in the monitoring protocol resulted in a positive sample being almost 10 times more likely to be collected than a negative sample. We estimated the rate of intake of oral vaccine at 0.006 per day, allowing us to estimate that roughly 68% of the foxes would be immunised. This was confirmed by field observations. Finally we discuss the implications for the eco-epidemiological dynamics of both epidemics in relation to control measures.

Epidemiological situation and control strategies for paratuberculosis in Japan

Paratuberculosis (Ptb), caused by Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (Map), is a chronic and progressive granulomatous enteritis that affects many livestock and wild animals worldwide. The clinical disease is called Johne's disease (JD). In Japan, all dairy cattle (harf million head) are examined for Ptb every five years. About 1000 the officially examined cattle are diagnosed annually as positive for Ptb, but most of these exhibit only minor or no clinical signs and typical lesions in recent years. In contrast to the situation in Japan, the disease prevalence in western countries is very high. We have used ELISA and a culture examination of Map, and recently real-time PCR to diagnose this disease. In this review, the author outlines the history of the epidemic and national practical strategies to control paratuberculosis in Japan.

Contrasting epidemic histories reveal pathogen-mediated balancing selection on class II MHC diversity in a wild songbird

The extent to which pathogens maintain the extraordinary polymorphism at vertebrate Major Histocompatibility Complex (MHC) genes via balancing selection has intrigued evolutionary biologists for over half a century, but direct tests remain challenging. Here we examine whether a well-characterized epidemic of Mycoplasmal conjunctivitis resulted in balancing selection on class II MHC in a wild songbird host, the house finch (Carpodacus mexicanus). First, we confirmed the potential for pathogen-mediated balancing selection by experimentally demonstrating that house finches with intermediate to high multi-locus MHC diversity are more resistant to challenge with Mycoplasma gallisepticum. Second, we documented sequence and diversity-based signatures of pathogen-mediated balancing selection at class II MHC in exposed host populations that were absent in unexposed, control populations across an equivalent time period. Multi-locus MHC diversity significantly increased in exposed host populations following the epidemic despite initial compromised diversity levels from a recent introduction bottleneck in the exposed host range. We did not observe equivalent changes in allelic diversity or heterozygosity across eight neutral microsatellite loci, suggesting that the observations reflect selection rather than neutral demographic processes. Our results indicate that a virulent pathogen can exert sufficient balancing selection on class II MHC to rescue compromised levels of genetic variation for host resistance in a recently bottlenecked population. These results provide evidence for Haldane's long-standing hypothesis that pathogens directly contribute to the maintenance of the tremendous levels of genetic variation detected in natural populations of vertebrates.