A Bibliometric Analysis of Drought Indices, Risk, and Forecast as Components of Drought Early Warning Systems

Developing Psychological Resilience to the Impact of Drought

BACKGROUND

Drought is a slow-onset natural hazard with significant socioeconomic, environmental and psychological impacts. The extant literature has predominately focused on the physical and economic dimensions of resilience, which mainly address the socioeconomic and environmental consequences of drought. However, the mental health effects of chronic environmental adversity, such as prolonged drought, remain an under-researched area, and frameworks that build and strengthen the psychological aspect of the social resilience of communities are lacking.

METHODS

This feasibility study will employ a mixed-method design sub-divided into three phases. Phase 1 will utilise social network analysis (SNA) to identify leadership patterns and their intersections across communities. While phase 2 will use semi-structured interviews to ascertain the perceived roles of identified leaders in preparing for and recovering from drought impacts, the third phase will adopt the Delphi method to unpack existing perceptions of control, coherence and connectedness.

Development of a New Multivariate Composite Drought Index for the Blue Nile River Basin

Drought is a slow-onset phenomenon that evolves over a season or even years. Drought affects people more than any other natural disaster due to its widespread and significant negative impacts. Population growth and associated water demand add further stress on water resources, especially in periods of drought. Drought indices represent a single value resulting from processing a considerable amount of data. These indices provide a short message to stakeholders to adapt water resource management strategies. Since drought results from interconnected phenomena, designing a composite drought index that includes several drought indices can accurately capture drought events. Drought assessment over a large-scale basin (e.g., the Blue Nile) is a challenging objective that has not been deeply tackled before except for small portions of the basin. This paper assessed droughts over the whole basin by evaluating meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological drought indices. The calculated drought indices (Standardized Runoff Index (SRI), Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), and standardized soil moisture index (SSI)) in addition to the development of a new standardized evapotranspiration index (sETI) are jointly integrated into a novel composite drought index for the Blue Nile (BNI). The optimal weights for SPI, SRI, sETI, and SSI were 0.51, 0.25, 0.1, and 0.14, respectively, in the designed BNI.