A time series analysis of weather variability and all-cause mortality in the Kasena-Nankana Districts of Northern Ghana, 1995-2010

Climate change and resilience of the Senegalese health system in the face of the floods in Keur Massar

This article is based on the observation that the affected populations perceive existing community-based adaptation strategies to the health effects of floods differently. We explore the resilience of the local health system to climate change (CC) in Keur Massar (Senegal) using a monographic approach based on a qualitative survey of flooded households, health professionals, hygiene agents, community health actors, administrative and local authorities, agents from the Ministries of Health and Environment, and experts from the ecological and meteorological monitoring centre (n = 72). The effects of CC on health are modulated by financial, organisational, social and cultural factors. The effects of CC on health are modulated by traditionally praised by self-centred health governance, which is often based on standardisation of problems and thus not sufficiently attuned to local contexts, especially the climate vulnerability index (CVI) of households and health structures. Despite the existence of programs to combat the consequences of CC, the notorious lack of exhaustive mapping of areas with a high CVI hinders the effective management of the health of the affected populations. A typology of forms of mobility in the context of flooding-ground floor to the upper floor, borrowing a room, renting a flat, seasonal residence-reveals inequalities in access to care as well as specific health needs management of vector-borne diseases, discontinuity of maternal, newborn and child health care, and psychosocial assistance. The article outlines how a health territorialisation based on surveillance and response mechanisms can be co-constructed and made sustainable in areas with a high CVI. Integrating this approach into national health policies allows for equity in health systems efficiently and sustainably.

The effects of extreme heat on human health in tropical Africa

This review examines high-quality research evidence that synthesises the effects of extreme heat on human health in tropical Africa. Web of Science (WoS) was used to identify research articles on the effects extreme heat, humidity, Wet-bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT), apparent temperature, wind, Heat Index, Humidex, Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI), heatwave, high temperature and hot climate on human health, human comfort, heat stress, heat rashes, and heat-related morbidity and mortality. A total of 5, 735 articles were initially identified, which were reduced to 100 based on a set of inclusion and exclusion criteria. The review discovered that temperatures up to 60°C have been recorded in the region and that extreme heat has many adverse effects on human health, such as worsening mental health in low-income adults, increasing the likelihood of miscarriage, and adverse effects on well-being and safety, psychological behaviour, efficiency, and social comfort of outdoor workers who spend long hours performing manual labour. Extreme heat raises the risk of death from heat-related disease, necessitating preventative measures such as adaptation methods to mitigate the adverse effects on vulnerable populations during hot weather. This study highlights the social inequalities in heat exposure and adverse health outcomes.

Increasing global temperatures threaten gains in maternal and newborn health in Africa: A review of impacts and an adaptation framework

Anatomical, physiologic, and socio-cultural changes during pregnancy and childbirth increase vulnerability of women and newborns to high ambient temperatures. Extreme heat can overwhelm thermoregulatory mechanisms in pregnant women, especially during labor, cause dehydration and endocrine dysfunction, and compromise placental function. Clinical sequelae include hypertensive disorders, gestational diabetes, preterm birth, and stillbirth. High ambient temperatures increase rates of infections, and affect health worker performance and healthcare seeking. Rising temperatures with climate change and limited resources heighten concerns. We propose an adaptation framework containing four prongs. First, behavioral changes such as reducing workloads during pregnancy and using low-cost water sprays. Second, health system interventions encompassing Early Warning Systems centered around existing community-based outreach; heat-health indicator tracking; water supplementation and monitoring for heat-related conditions during labor. Building modifications, passive and active cooling systems, and nature-based solutions can reduce temperatures in facilities. Lastly, structural interventions and climate financing are critical. The overall package of interventions, ideally selected following cost-effectiveness and thermal modeling trade-offs, needs to be co-designed and co-delivered with affected communities, and take advantage of existing maternal and child health platforms. Robust-applied research will set the stage for programs across Africa that target pregnant women. Adequate research and climate financing are now urgent.

Global Health Impacts for Economic Models of Climate Change: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Rationale: Avoiding excess health damages attributable to climate change is a primary motivator for policy interventions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. However, the health benefits of climate mitigation, as included in the policy assessment process, have been estimated without much input from health experts. Objectives: In accordance with recommendations from the National Academies in a 2017 report on approaches to update the social cost of greenhouse gases (SC-GHG), an expert panel of 26 health researchers and climate economists gathered for a virtual technical workshop in May 2021 to conduct a systematic review and meta-analysis and recommend improvements to the estimation of health impacts in economic-climate models. Methods: Regionally resolved effect estimates of unit increases in temperature on net all-cause mortality risk were generated through random-effects pooling of studies identified through a systematic review. Results: Effect estimates and associated uncertainties varied by global region, but net increases in mortality risk associated with increased average annual temperatures (ranging from 0.1% to 1.1% per 1°C) were estimated for all global regions. Key recommendations for the development and utilization of health damage modules were provided by the expert panel and included the following: not relying on individual methodologies in estimating health damages; incorporating a broader range of cause-specific mortality impacts; improving the climate parameters available in economic models; accounting for socioeconomic trajectories and adaptation factors when estimating health damages; and carefully considering how air pollution impacts should be incorporated in economic-climate models. Conclusions: This work provides an example of how subject-matter experts can work alongside climate economists in making continued improvements to SC-GHG estimates.

Extreme heat and occupational injuries in different climate zones: A systematic review and meta-analysis of epidemiological evidence

BACKGROUND

The link between heat exposure and adverse health outcomes in workers is well documented and a growing body of epidemiological evidence from various countries suggests that extreme heat may also contribute to increased risk of occupational injuries (OI). Previously, there have been no comparative reviews assessing the risk of OI due to extreme heat within a wide range of global climate zones. The present review therefore aims to summarise the existing epidemiological evidence on the impact of extreme heat (hot temperatures and heatwaves (HW)) on OI in different climate zones and to assess the individual risk factors associated with workers and workplace that contribute to heat-associated OI risks.

METHODS

A systematic review of published peer-reviewed articles that assessed the effects of extreme heat on OI among non-military workers was undertaken using three databases (PubMed, Embase and Scopus) without temporal or geographical limits from database inception until July 2020. Extreme heat exposure was assessed in terms of hot temperatures and HW periods. For hot temperatures, the effect estimates were converted to relative risks (RR) associated with 1 °C increase in temperature above reference values, while for HW, effect estimates were RR comparing heatwave with non-heatwave periods. The patterns of heat associated OI risk were investigated in different climate zones (according to Köppen Geiger classification) based on the study locations and were estimated using random-effects meta-analysis models. Subgroup analyses according to workers' characteristics (e.g. gender, age group, experience), nature of work (e.g. physical demands, location of work i.e. indoor/outdoor) and workplace characteristics (e.g. industries, business size) were also conducted.

RESULTS

A total of 24 studies published between 2005 and 2020 were included in the review. Among these, 22 studies met the eligibility criteria, representing almost 22 million OI across six countries (Australia, Canada, China, Italy, Spain, and USA) and were included in the meta-analysis. The pooled results suggested that the overall risk of OI increased by 1% (RR 1.010, 95% CI: 1.009-1.011) for 1 °C increase in temperature above reference values and 17.4% (RR 1.174, 95% CI: 1.057-1.291) during HW. Among different climate zones, the highest risk of OI during hot temperatures was identified in Humid Subtropical Climates (RR 1.017, 95% CI: 1.014-1.020) followed by Oceanic (RR 1.010, 95% CI: 1.008-1.012) and Hot Mediterranean Climates (RR 1.009, 95% CI: 1.008-1.011). Similarly, Oceanic (RR 1.218, 95% CI: 1.093-1.343) and Humid Subtropical Climates (RR 1.213, 95% CI: 0.995-1.431) had the highest risk of OI during HW periods. No studies assessing the risk of OI in Tropical regions were found. The effects of hot temperatures on the risk of OI were acute with a lag effect of 1-2 days in all climate zones. Young workers (age < 35 years), male workers and workers in agriculture, forestry or fishing, construction and manufacturing industries were at high risk of OI during hot temperatures. Further young workers (age < 35 years), male workers and those working in electricity, gas and water and manufacturing industries were found to be at high risk of OI during HW.

CONCLUSIONS

This review strengthens the evidence on the risk of heat-associated OI in different climate zones. The risk of OI associated with extreme heat is not evenly distributed and is dependent on underlying climatic conditions, workers' attributes, the nature of work and workplace characteristics. The differences in the risk of OI across different climate zones and worker subgroups warrant further investigation along with the development of climate and work-specific intervention strategies.

Climate change and child health: a scoping review and an expanded conceptual framework

Climate change can have detrimental effects on child health and wellbeing. Despite the imperative for a fuller understanding of how climate change affects child health and wellbeing, a systematic approach and focus solely on children (aged <18 years) has been lacking. In this Scoping Review, we did a literature search on the impacts of climate change on child health from January, 2000, to June, 2019. The included studies explicitly linked an alteration of an exposure to a risk factor for child health to climate change or climate variability. In total, 2970 original articles, reviews, and other documents were identified, of which 371 were analysed. Employing an expanded framework, our analysis showed that the effects of climate change on child health act through direct and indirect pathways, with implications for determinants of child health as well as morbidity and mortality from a range of diseases. This understanding can be further enhanced by using a broader range of research methods, studying overlooked populations and geographical regions, investigating the costs and benefits of mitigation and adaptation for child health, and considering the position of climate change and child health within the UN Sustainable Development Goals. Present and future generations of children bear and will continue to bear an unacceptably high disease burden from climate change.

Long-term trends in seasonality of mortality in urban Madagascar: the role of the epidemiological transition

Background: Seasonal patterns of mortality have been identified in Sub-Saharan Africa but their changes over time are not well documented.Objective: Based on death notification data from Antananarivo, the capital city of Madagascar, this study assesses seasonal patterns of all-cause and cause-specific mortality by age groups and evaluates how these patterns changed over the period 1976-2015.Methods: Monthly numbers of deaths by cause were obtained from death registers maintained by the Municipal Hygiene Office in charge of verifying deaths before the issuance of burial permits. Generalized Additive Mixed regression models (GAMM) were used to test for seasonality in mortality and its changes over the last four decades, controlling for long-term trends in mortality.Results: Among children, risks of dying were the highest during the hot and rainy season, but seasonality in child mortality has significantly declined since the mid-1970s, as a result of declines in the burden of infectious diseases and nutritional deficiencies. In adults aged 60 and above, all-cause mortality rates are the highest in the dry and cold season, due to peaks in cardiovascular diseases, with little change over time. Overall, changes in the seasonality of all-cause mortality have been driven by shifts in the hierarchy of causes of death, while changes in the seasonality within broad categories of causes of death have been modest.Conclusion: Shifts in disease patterns brought about by the epidemiological transition, rather than changes in seasonal variation in cause-specific mortality, are the main drivers of trends in the seasonality of all-cause mortality.

The Influence of Apparent Temperature on Mortality in the Kintampo Health and Demographic Surveillance Area in the Middle Belt of Ghana: A Retrospective Time-Series Analysis

Globally, studies have shown that diurnal changes in weather conditions and extreme weather events have a profound effect on mortality. Here, we assessed the effect of apparent temperature on all-cause mortality and the modifying effect of sex on the apparent temperature-mortality relationship using mortality and weather data archived over an eleven-year period. An overdispersed Poisson regression and distributed lag nonlinear models were used for this analysis. With these models, we analysed the relative risk of mortality at different temperature values over a 10-day lag period. By and large, we observed a nonlinear association between mean daily apparent temperature and all-cause mortality. An assessment of different temperature values over a 10-day lag period showed an increased risk of death at the lowest apparent temperature (18°C) from lag 2 to 4 with the highest relative risk of mortality (RR = 1.61, 95% CI: 1.2, 2.15, p value = 0.001) occurring three days after exposure. The relative risk of death also varied between males (RR = 0.31, 95% CI: 0.10, 0.94) and females (RR = 4.88, 95% CI: 1.40, 16.99) by apparent temperature and lag. On the whole, males are sensitive to both temperature extremes whilst females are more vulnerable to low temperature-related mortality. Accordingly, our findings could inform efforts at reducing temperature-related mortality in this context and other settings with similar environmental and demographic characteristics.

Drought and Illness among Young Children in Uganda, 2009-2012

Changing precipitation patterns resulting from climate change are likely to have deleterious effects on health. We examined historical relationships between precipitation and diarrhea, cough, and fever among children aged 0-24 months in Uganda, a drought-prone region. Using data from the Uganda National Panel Survey from 2009 to 2012 (2,324 observations), we specified logistic regression models evaluating the relationships between deviations from annual and 30-day precipitation and caregiver-reported diarrhea, cough, and fever, adjusting for sociodemographic characteristics and including enumeration of area-fixed effects. Nonlinearities were assessed using restricted cubic splines. We observed nonlinear (J-shaped) relationships between deviations from annual precipitation and the three child illness outcomes. These J-shaped relationships represented steep reductions in illness with increasing precipitation at lower levels of rainfall and a leveling off at higher levels, with a small increase at higher levels. We did not find evidence for a relationship between 30-day precipitation and childhood illness. Trends of reduced rainfall in Uganda are likely having negative effects on child health.

Socio-economic, infrastructural and health-related risk factors associated with adverse heat-health effects reportedly experienced during hot weather in South Africa

INTRODUCTION

Poor urban communities are likely to bear the brunt of climate change impacts on health and well-being. The City of Johannesburg, South Africa, is predicted to experience an average increase in ambient temperature of 4°C by 2100. Focusing on the urban environment, this study aimed to determine socio-economic, infrastructural and health-related risk factors for heat-related adverse health effects.

METHODS

This was a cross-sectional study. Data of interest were collected using a pretested and validated questionnaire administered to parents of children attending schools participating in a school heat study. Information related to demographic, socio-economic and household-level determinants of health, which has an impact on the individual prevalence of adverse heat-health effects associated with hot weather, was collected for 136 households and 580 individuals.

RESULTS

Sweating (n = 208 individuals; 35%), headache and nausea (n = 111; 19%) and weakness, fatigue and dizziness (n = 87; 15%) were the most common heat-health effects reportedly experienced by individuals (n = 580) during hot weather. Individuals who suffered from hypertension (OR = 2.32, 95% CI: 1.34 - 4.05, p = 0.003) and individuals older than 60 years (OR = 1.81, 95% CI: 1.27-1.99, p < 0.001) compared to other age groups were more likely to experience 'any heat-health effects'. Living in government-sponsored detached housing and in houses with asbestos roofs were associated with an increase in reported experience of 'any heat-health effects' compared to living in other housing types.

CONCLUSION

Heat-health awareness campaigns should target people suffering from pre-existing diseases and the elderly, as these groups are especially vulnerable to heat. Focus should also be given to appropriate roofing and insulation in government-sponsored housing since summertime temperatures are projected to increase.

Impact of heat on mortality and morbidity in low and middle income countries: A review of the epidemiological evidence and considerations for future research

Heat waves and high air temperature are associated with increased morbidity and mortality. However, the majority of research conducted on this topic is focused on high income areas of the world. Although heat waves have the most severe impacts on vulnerable populations, relatively few studies have studied their impacts in low and middle income countries (LMICs). The aim of this paper is to review the existing evidence in the literature on the impact of heat on human health in LMICs. We identified peer-reviewed epidemiologic studies published in English between January 1980 and August 2018 investigating potential associations between high ambient temperature or heat waves and mortality or morbidity. We selected studies according to the following criteria: quantitative studies that used primary and/or secondary data and report effect estimates where ambient temperature or heat waves are the main exposure of interest in relation to human morbidity or mortality within LMICs. Of the total 146 studies selected, eighty-two were conducted in China, nine in other countries of East Asia and the Pacific, twelve in South Asia, ten in Sub-Saharan Africa, eight in the Middle East and North Africa, and seven in each of Latin America and Europe. The majority of studies (92.9%) found positive associations between heat and human morbidity/mortality. Additionally, while outcome variables and study design differed greatly, most utilized a time-series study design and examined overall heath related morbidity/mortality impacts in an entire population, although it is notable that the selected studies generally found that the elderly, women, and individuals within the low socioeconomic brackets were the most vulnerable to the effects of high temperature. By highlighting the existing evidence on the impact of extreme heat on health in LMICs, we hope to determine data needs and help direct future studies in addressing this knowledge gap. The focus on LMICs is justified by the lack of studies and data studying the health burden of higher temperatures in these regions even though LMICs have a lower capacity to adapt to high temperatures and thus an increased risk.

Trends for Diarrhea Morbidity in the Jasikan District of Ghana: Estimates from District Level Diarrhea Surveillance Data, 2012-2016

About 22% of childhood deaths in developing countries are attributable to diarrhea. In poor resource settings, diarrhea morbidities are correlated with poverty and socio-contextual factors. Diarrhea rates in Ghana are reported to be high, with cases estimated at 113,786 among children under-five years in 2011. This study analyzed the trends of diarrhea morbidity outcomes in the Jasikan District of Ghana. A retrospective analysis of records on diarrhea data for a five years' period (January 2012 to December 2016) was undertaken. There was a total of 17740 diarrhea case reports extracted from District Health Information Management System (DHIMS) II database in an Excel format which was then exported to Stata version 14 for data cleaning, verification, and analysis. Excel version 2016 was used to plot the actual observed cases by years to assess trends and seasonality. There was a period incidence rate of 272.02 per 1000 persons with a decreasing annual growth rate of 1.85%. Declines for diarrhea generally occurred from November to December and increased from January upwards, evidence that most cases of diarrhea in this study were reported in the harmattan season. High incidence of diarrhea was found to be common among under-five children and among females. Decreasing trend of diarrhea incidence which was identified in this research within the five years' period understudied shows that, by the year 2020, there will be a sharp decline in the incidence rate of diarrhea reported cases in Jasikan District, given improvements in the external environmental conditions in the district, all things being equal.

Assessing Heat-Related Mortality Risks among Rural Populations: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Epidemiological Evidence

Most epidemiological studies of high temperature effects on mortality have focused on urban settings, while heat-related health risks in rural areas remain underexplored. To date there has been no meta-analysis of epidemiologic literature concerning heat-related mortality in rural settings. This study aims to systematically review the current literature for assessing heat-related mortality risk among rural populations. We conducted a comprehensive literature search using PubMed, Web of Science, and Google Scholar to identify articles published up to April 2018. Key selection criteria included study location, health endpoints, and study design. Fourteen studies conducted in rural areas in seven countries on four continents met the selection criteria, and eleven were included in the meta-analysis. Using the random effects model, the pooled estimates of relative risks (RRs) for all-cause and cardiovascular mortality were 1.030 (95% CI: 1.013, 1.048) and 1.111 (95% CI: 1.045, 1.181) per 1 °C increase in daily mean temperature, respectively. We found excess risks in rural settings not to be smaller than risks in urban settings. Our results suggest that rural populations, like urban populations, are also vulnerable to heat-related mortality. Further evaluation of heat-related mortality among rural populations is warranted to develop public health interventions in rural communities.

Current and Potential Future Seasonal Trends of Indoor Dwelling Temperature and Likely Health Risks in Rural Southern Africa

Climate change has resulted in rising temperature trends which have been associated with changes in temperature extremes globally. Attendees of Conference of the Parties (COP) 21 agreed to strive to limit the rise in global average temperatures to below 2 °C compared to industrial conditions, the target being 1.5 °C. However, current research suggests that the African region will be subjected to more intense heat extremes over a shorter time period, with projections predicting increases of 4–6 °C for the period 2071–2100, in annual average maximum temperatures for southern Africa. Increased temperatures may exacerbate existing chronic ill health conditions such as cardiovascular disease, respiratory disease, cerebrovascular disease, and diabetes-related conditions. Exposure to extreme temperatures has also been associated with mortality. This study aimed to consider the relationship between temperatures in indoor and outdoor environments in a rural residential setting in a current climate and warmer predicted future climate. Temperature and humidity measurements were collected hourly in 406 homes in summer and spring and at two-hour intervals in 98 homes in winter. Ambient temperature, humidity and windspeed were obtained from the nearest weather station. Regression models were used to identify predictors of indoor apparent temperature (AT) and to estimate future indoor AT using projected ambient temperatures. Ambient temperatures will increase by a mean of 4.6 °C for the period 2088–2099. Warming in winter was projected to be greater than warming in summer and spring. The number of days during which indoor AT will be categorized as potentially harmful will increase in the future. Understanding current and future heat-related health effects is key in developing an effective surveillance system. The observations of this study can be used to inform the development and implementation of policies and practices around heat and health especially in rural areas of South Africa.

The association between ambient temperature and mortality in South Africa: A time-series analysis

BACKGROUND

There is an extensive literature describing temperature-mortality associations in developed regions, but research from developing countries, and Africa in particular, is limited.

METHODS

We conducted a time-series analysis using daily temperature data and a national dataset of all 8.8 million recorded deaths in South Africa between 1997 and 2013. Mortality and temperature data were linked at the district municipality level and relationships were estimated with a distributed lag non-linear model with 21 days of lag, and pooled in a multivariate meta-analysis.

RESULTS

We found an association between daily maximum temperature and mortality. The relative risk for all-age all-cause mortality on very cold and hot days (1st and 99th percentile of the temperature distribution) was 1.14 (1.10,1.17) and 1.06 (1.03,1.09), respectively, when compared to the minimum mortality temperature. This "U" shaped relationship was evident for every age and cause group investigated, except among 25-44 year olds. The strongest associations were in the youngest (< 5) and oldest (> 64) age groups and for cardiorespiratory causes. Heat effects occurred immediately after exposure but diminished quickly whereas cold effects were delayed but persistent. Overall, 3.4% of deaths (~ 290,000) in South Africa were attributable to non-optimum temperatures over the study period. We also present results for the 52 district municipalities individually.

CONCLUSIONS

An assessment of the largest-ever dataset for analyzing temperature-mortality associations in (South) Africa indicates mortality burdens associated with cold and heat, and identifies the young and elderly as particularly vulnerable.

Heat effects of ambient apparent temperature on all-cause mortality in Cape Town, Durban and Johannesburg, South Africa: 2006-2010

Due to climate change, an increase of 3-4°C in ambient temperature is projected along the South African coast and 6-7°C inland during the next 80years. The objective of this study was to investigate the association between daily ambient apparent temperature (Tapp) and daily all-cause non-accidental mortality (hereafter mortality) in Cape Town, Durban and Johannesburg during a 5-year study period (2006-2010). Susceptibility by sex and age groups (<15years, 15-64years and ≥65years) was also investigated. The associations were investigated with the time-stratified case-crossover epidemiological design. Models were controlled for PM₁₀, public holidays and influenza epidemics. City-specific Tapp thresholds were determined using quasi-Poisson generalised additive models. The pooled estimates by sex and age groups were determined in meta-analyses. The city-specific Tapp thresholds were 18.6°C, 24.8°C and 18.7°C, respectively for Cape Town, Durban and Johannesburg. A 3.3%, 2.6% and 2.8% increase in mortality per IQR increase in Tapp (lag0-1) was observed in Cape Town, Durban and Johannesburg, respectively above the city-specific thresholds. The elderly were more at risk in Cape Town and Johannesburg. No difference in risk was observed for males and females in the three cities. In the meta-analysis an overall significant increase of 0.9% in mortality per 1°C increase in Tapp (lag0-1) was observed for all age groups combined in the three cities. For the ≥65year group a significant increase of 2.1% in mortality was observed. In conclusion, the risks for all age groups combined and the elderly are similar to those reported in studies from developed and developing countries. The results can be used in present-day early warning systems and in risk assessments to estimate the impact of increased Tapp in the country due to climate change. Future research should investigate the association between Tapp and cause-specific mortality and also morbidity.

Impact of ambient temperature on morbidity and mortality: An overview of reviews

The objectives were (i) to conduct an overview of systematic reviews to summarize evidence from and evaluate the methodological quality of systematic reviews assessing the impact of ambient temperature on morbidity and mortality; and (ii) to reanalyse meta-analyses of cold-induced cardiovascular morbidity in different age groups. The registration number is PROSPERO-CRD42016047179. PubMed, Embase, the Cochrane Library, Web of Science, the Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL), and Global Health were systematically searched to identify systematic reviews. Two reviewers independently selected studies for inclusion, extracted data, and assessed quality. The Assessment of Multiple Systematic Reviews (AMSTAR) checklist was used to assess the methodological quality of included systematic reviews. Estimates of morbidity and mortality risk in association with heat exposure, cold exposure, heatwaves, cold spells and diurnal temperature ranges (DTRs) were the primary outcomes. Twenty-eight systematic reviews were included in the overview of systematic reviews. (i) The median (interquartile range) AMSTAR scores were 7 (1.75) for quantitative reviews and 3.5 (1.75) for qualitative reviews. (ii) Heat exposure was identified to be associated with increased risk of cardiovascular, cerebrovascular and respiratory mortality, but was not found to have an impact on cardiovascular or cerebrovascular morbidity. (iii) Reanalysis of the meta-analyses indicated that cold-induced cardiovascular morbidity increased in youth and middle-age (RR=1.009, 95% CI: 1.004-1.015) as well as the elderly (RR=1.013, 95% CI: 1.007-1.018). (iv) The definitions of temperature exposure adopted by different studies included various temperature indicators and thresholds. In conclusion, heat exposure seemed to have an adverse effect on mortality and cold-induced cardiovascular morbidity increased in the elderly. Developing definitions of temperature exposure at the regional level may contribute to more accurate evaluations of the health effects of temperature.

Is precipitation a predictor of mortality in Bangladesh? A multi-stratified analysis in a South Asian monsoon climate

While numerous studies have assessed the association between temperature and mortality in various locations, few have addressed the relationship between precipitation and mortality. Given the high amounts of rainfall in many tropical monsoon areas and the often seasonally pronounced differences, there might be a potentially strong impact on health outcomes and death. In this study, we investigated the association between precipitation and daily death counts in Bangladesh from 2003 to 2007 using regression models with a quasipoisson distribution adjusting for long-term time and seasonal trends, day of the month, age and perceived temperature. Effects were assessed for all ages, the elderly and by gender. During the dry season a sharp increase in death risk was found at very high precipitation amounts which are most likely to be cyclone-related. This cyclone effect was most pronounced for females at the immediate day with an increase of 18.7% (3.8-35.6%) in non-external cause mortality per mm precipitation above 5mm. At longer lags we found a negative association between precipitation and mortality indicating some kind of dry effect which was more pronounced for the elderly with a mortality increase of 4.4% (2.6-6.2%) per mm decrease in precipitation. During the rainy season, we observed a protective effect of rainfall which was strongest during periods of seasonally high equivalent temperatures with a decrease in mortality of 4.0% (2.3-5.6%) per mm increase in precipitation on the immediate day. The observed associations between precipitation and mortality differed by season, age and gender. Generally, a strong short-term increase in mortality was associated with cyclonic activity during the dry season, while ongoing low rainfall seemed to have an adverse impact at higher lags. During the rainy season, precipitation seemed to mitigate heat effects.

Temperature-related morbidity and mortality in Sub-Saharan Africa: A systematic review of the empirical evidence

BACKGROUND

Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) contributes very little to overall climate change and yet it is estimated to bear the highest burden of climate change, with 34% of the global DALYs attributable to the effects of climate change found in SSA. With the exception of vector-borne diseases, particularly malaria, there is very limited research on human health effects of climate change in SSA, in spite of growing awareness of the region's vulnerability to climate change.

OBJECTIVES

Our objective is to systematically review all studies investigating temperature variability and non-vector borne morbidity and mortality in SSA to establish the state and quality of available evidence, identify gaps in knowledge, and propose future research priorities.

METHODS

PubMed, Ovid Medline and Scopus were searched from their inception to the end of December 2014. We modified the GRADE guidelines to rate the quality of the body of evidence.

RESULTS

Of 6745 studies screened, 23 studies satisfied the inclusion criteria. Moderate evidence exists to associate temperature variability with cholera outbreaks, cardiovascular disease hospitalization and deaths, and all-cause deaths in the region. The quality of evidence on child undernutrition is low, and for diarrhea occurrence, meningitis, Ebola, asthma and respiratory diseases, and skin diseases, very low.

CONCLUSIONS

The evidence base is somehow weakened by the limited number of studies uncovered, methodological limitations of the studies, and notable inconsistencies in the study findings. Further research with robust study designs and standardized analytical methods is thus needed to produce more credible evidence base to inform climate change preparedness plans and public health policies for improved adaptive capacity in SSA. Investment in meteorological services, and strengthening of health information systems is also required to guarantee timely, up-to-date and reliable data.

Regional Projections of Extreme Apparent Temperature Days in Africa and the Related Potential Risk to Human Health

Regional climate modelling was used to produce high resolution climate projections for Africa, under a “business as usual scenario”, that were translated into potential health impacts utilizing a heat index that relates apparent temperature to health impacts. The continent is projected to see increases in the number of days when health may be adversely affected by increasing maximum apparent temperatures (AT) due to climate change. Additionally, climate projections indicate that the increases in AT results in a moving of days from the less severe to the more severe Symptom Bands. The analysis of the rate of increasing temperatures assisted in identifying areas, such as the East African highlands, where health may be at increasing risk due to both large increases in the absolute number of hot days, and due to the high rate of increase. The projections described here can be used by health stakeholders in Africa to assist in the development of appropriate public health interventions to mitigate the potential health impacts from climate change.

Road traffic fatalities - a neglected epidemic in rural northern Ghana: evidence from the navrongo demographic surveillance system

Background

Globally, road traffic fatalities have been on the increase, particularly in low-and-middle income countries. Much of this is attributed to increases in the acquisition, and use of motorized vehicles. However, there is very little empirical research to understand the causes and determinants of this threat. This paper investigates time trends and determinants of road traffic accidents in the Kassena-Nankana district of northern Ghana.

Methods

First, we utilized causes of death data gathered by the Health and Demographic Surveillance System in Navrongo, to examine trends in deaths due to injury, particularly those related to road traffic crashes. Subsequently, we employed multivariate logistic regression to examine factors associated with deaths due to all injuries and road traffic crashes among adults 15–59 years of age.

Results

Results show a three-fold increase in mortality (from less than 6% in 1995 to about 18% in 2010) due to injuries in the Kassena-Nankana district in about a decade. Fatalities resulting from road traffic crashes constitute the greatest share of the burden of mortality resulting from injuries. Increases in road traffic fatalities have coincided with recent increases in motor and vehicular traffic in the region. Several factors are associated with the increased risk of deaths from road traffic accidents, principal among which include urban residence (OR = 1.74 95% CI 1.09-2.78), being male and in the prime adult ages of between 20–29 years old (OR = 4.85 95% CI 2.65-8.89), as well as people with higher levels of education (OR = 3.21 95% CI 1.75-5.87) and those in higher socioeconomic status categories (OR = 2.43 95% CI 1.21-4.88).

Conclusions

Results suggest that road traffic fatalities have become a major cause of morbidity and mortality and brings into focus the need for measures to curb this looming crisis. There is need for strategic interventions to be adopted to avert what is sure to become one of the leading causes of death in this impoverished locality.

Only an integrated approach across academia, enterprise, governments, and global agencies can tackle the public health impact of climate change

Background

Despite considerable global attention to the issues of climate change, relatively little priority has been given to the likely effects on human health of current and future changes in the global climate. We identify three major societal determinants that influence the impact of climate change on human health, namely the application of scholarship and knowledge; economic and commercial considerations; and actions of governments and global agencies.

Discussion

The three major areas are each discussed in terms of the ways in which they facilitate and frustrate attempts to protect human health from the effects of climate change. Academia still pays very little attention to the effects of climate on health in poorer countries. Enterprise is starting to recognise that healthy commerce depends on healthy people, and so climate change presents long-term threats if it compromises health. Governments and international agencies are very active, but often face immovable vested interests in other sectors. Overall, there tends to be too little interaction between the three areas, and this means that potential synergies and co-benefits are not always realised.

Conclusion

More attention from academia, enterprise, and international agencies needs to be given to the potential threats the climate change presents to human health. However, there needs to also be much closer collaboration between all three areas in order to capitalise on possible synergies that can be achieved between them.

A time series analysis of weather variability and all-cause mortality in the Kasena-Nankana Districts of Northern Ghana, 1995-2010

Introduction

Climate and weather variability can have significant health consequences of increased morbidity and mortality. However, today the impact of climate and weather variability, and consequentially, of climate change on population health in sub-Saharan Africa is not well understood. In this study, we assessed the association of daily temperature and precipitation with daily mortality by age and sex groups in Northern Ghana.

Methods

We analysed daily mortality and weather data from 1995 to 2010. We adopted a time-series Poisson regression approach to examine the short-term association of daily mean temperature and daily mean precipitation with daily mortality. We included time factors and daily lagged weather predictors. The correlation between lagged weather predictors was also considered.

Results

For all populations, a statistically significant association of mean daily temperature with mortality at lag days 0–1 was observed below and above the 25th (27.48°C) and 75th (30.68°C) percentiles (0.19%; 95% confidence interval CI: 0.05%, 0.21%) and (1.14%; 95% CI: 0.12%, 1.54%), respectively. We also observed a statistically significant association of mean daily temperature above 75th percentile at lag days 2–6 and lag days 7–13 (0.32%; 95% CI: 0.16%, 0.25%) and (0.31% 95% CI: 0.14%, 0.26%), respectively. A 10 mm increase in precipitation was significantly associated with a 1.71% (95% CI: 0.10%, 3.34.9%) increase in mortality for all ages and sex groups at lag days 2–6. Similar results were also observed at lag days 2–6 and 14–27 for males, 2.92% (95% CI: 0.80%, 5.09%) and 2.35% (95% CI: 0.28%, 4.45%).

Conclusion

Short-term weather variability is strongly associated with mortality in Northern Ghana. The associations appear to differ among different age and sex groups. The elderly and young children were found to be more susceptible to short-term temperature-related mortality. The association of precipitation with mortality is more pronounced at the short-term for all age and sex groups and in the medium short-term among males. Reducing exposure to extreme temperature, particularly among the elderly and young children, should reduce the number of daily deaths attributable to weather-related mortality.