Seasonal variation in the onset of acute pancreatitis

The four seasons of pancreatitis - Etiology of acute pancreatitis during the course of the year

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES

Whether seasonality is a factor that influences the incidence of acute pancreatitis (AP) is an under-investigated area. If seasonal incidence peaks can be detected, specifically with regard to biliary pancreatitis, has so far been answered in contradictory ways in the literature.

METHODS

All AP cases from two tertiary German referral centers were identified between 2016 and 2022 based on ICD-10 discharge codes. The χ2 test for goodness of fit was applied to test significant differences in monthly and seasonal distributions of AP admissions.

RESULTS

In total, 3597 AP cases were included. We observed significantly more idiopathic and biliary cases in May to July (p-values 0.041 and 0.027, respectively). Furthermore, most drug-induced APs were identified during the winter months (p-value 0.006). Moreover, there was a significant peak of alcohol-induced pancreatitis in summer and fall (p-value 0.038).

CONCLUSIONS

Our data indicate a seasonal impact on AP incidences for certain etiologies.

Visits to Sexually Transmitted Infection Clinics in Italy from January 2016 to November 2021: A Multicenter, Retrospective Study

There is no evidence of seasonal variation in visits to clinics dedicated to sexually transmitted infections (STIs) in Italy, nor of changes after the advent of the COVID-19 pandemic. An observational, retrospective, multicentric study was conducted to record and analyze all the visits to the STI clinics of the Dermatology Units of the University Hospitals of Ferrara and Bologna and of the Infectious Disease Unit of Ferrara, Italy, between January 2016 and November 2021. Overall, 11.733 visits were registered over a 70-month study period (63.7% males, mean age 34.5 ± 12.8 yrs). The mean number of monthly visits significantly decreased from the advent of the pandemic (136) compared to before (177). In the pre-pandemic period, visits to STI clinics increased in the autumn/winter months when compared to spring/summer, while the trend was the opposite in the pandemic period. Thus, during the pandemic, both an overall significant reduction in visits to STI clinics and a reversal in their seasonality were observed. These trends affected males and females equally. The marked decrease, mostly found in the pandemic winter months, can be linked to the "lockdown"/self-isolation ordinances and social distancing measures during the colder months, coinciding with the spread of the COVID-19 infection, which limited the opportunities for meeting and socializing.

Seasonality in General Surgery Hospitalizations and Procedures in the US: Workflow Implications

INTRODUCTION

Seasonality has been studied in select conditions treated by surgeons and internists, but is not well understood regarding overall procedural volume in general surgery. Furthermore, much of the literature is limited due to lack of use of seasonal-trend-decomposition analyses.

METHODS

All admissions with general surgery procedures were pooled from NIS 2002-2014, monthly hospitalization rates calculated, and seasonal-trend decomposition performed.

RESULTS

Emergent admissions, accounting for 9% of the average annual incidence, had more prominent seasonality than elective admissions. Inpatient surgical-procedural volume remained relatively stable throughout the year and decreased only in the third quarter. Procedures for acute intra-abdominal conditions and traumas peaked in summer months, while endoscopies, tracheostomies and gastrostomies peaked in winter months.

CONCLUSIONS

Many surgical pathologies and corresponding general-surgery procedures obey circannual patterns. Surgical workforce remains in high demand throughout the year except for fall and winter holidays. Understanding seasonal variation in such demand may be important for staffing and resource planning.

Elevated hypertriglyceridemia and decreased gallstones in the etiological composition ratio of acute pancreatitis as affected by seasons and festivals: A two-center real-world study from China

Objective

The purpose of this study was to observe the annual variation in the etiology of acute pancreatitis (AP) and its relationship with seasons and festivals.

Methods

From 2011 to 2017, 5146 adult patients with AP were studied, including 4110 patients from the First Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University (South center) and 1036 patients from the First Affiliated Hospital of Harbin Medical University (North center). We analyzed the overall annual variation in the etiology of AP and then compared the differences in etiology between the two regions, as well as the effects of seasons and festivals on the etiology of AP.

Results

Gallstones, hypertriglyceridemia (HTG) and alcohol were the top three etiologies of AP. Gallstone AP showed a downward trend (P<0.001), and HTG-AP and alcohol AP showed an upward trend (both P<0.01). Among the etiologies of AP, gallstones and HTG were affected by seasons and festivals. The composition ratio of HTG-AP increased, while gallstone AP decreased in winter and in months with long holidays (all P<0.01). The composition ratio of gallstone AP in the south center was higher than that in the north center (59.5% vs. 49%), especially in summer (62.9% vs. 44.0%) and autumn (61.5% vs. 45.7%, all P<0.001).

Conclusions

The composition ratio of HTG-AP increased while gallstone AP decreased in the past 7 years, and they were affected by seasons and festivals.

Is there seasonal variation in gallstone related admissions in England?

BACKGROUND

Gallstone related pathology (GRP) accounts for a significant proportion of general surgery admissions. The aim of this study is to investigate if seasonal variation for GRP admissions exist in England allowing improved resource allocation and planning.

METHODS

This multicentre retrospective cohort study included only emergency adult (≥18 years old) admissions to acute secondary care with ICD-10 codes associated with gallstones between 01/01/2010 to 31/12/2019 in England using Hospital Episode Statistics data. Seasons were defined according to United Kingdom Met Office.

RESULTS

A total of 396 879 GRP related admissions were recorded during the specified period, accounting for 1.44% of all emergency admissions. Our study suggests a significant seasonal peak in Summer (n = 102 620) based cumulative admissions per season and a linear regression model (p < 0.001), followed by Autumn (n = 102 267), then Spring (n = 97 807) and finally Winter (n = 94 185). Spectral analysis confirmed there is seasonality in the emergency GRP admissions every 12 months. A forecasting model was shown to be reliable; all observed admissions for 2019 were within the 95% prediction intervals for each month for the proportion of emergency GRP admissions.

CONCLUSION

Resource allocation towards the Summer months to target seasonal peaks in GRP should be considered.

Seasonal variation of peptic ulcer disease, peptic ulcer bleeding, and acute pancreatitis: A nationwide population-based study using a common data model

Although gastrointestinal diseases are reported at various times throughout the year, some particular seasons are associated with a higher incidence of these diseases. This study aimed to identify the seasonal variations of peptic ulcer (PU), peptic ulcer bleeding (PUB), and acute pancreatitis (AP) in South Korea.We conducted a retrospective, observational cohort study of all subjects aged >18 years between 2012 and 2016 using the Health Insurance Review and Assessment-National Patient Samples database, previously converted to the standardized Observational Medical Outcomes Partnership-Common Data Model. We assessed the overall seasonal variations of PU, PUB, and AP and further analyzed seasonal variations according to age and sex subgroups.In total, 14,626 patients with PU, 3575 with PUB, and 9023 with AP were analyzed for 5 years. A clear seasonal variation was noted in PU, with the highest incidence rate during winter, the second highest during spring, the third highest during summer, and the lowest incidence during autumn for 5 years (P < .001). PUB also showed significant seasonal fluctuations, with winter peak for 4 years, except 1 year, which had a spring peak (P < .001). However, AP showed no clear seasonal variations (P = .090). No significant differences in the seasonal variation of PU, PUB, and AP were observed according to sex and age subgroups (<60 years vs ≥60 years).Seasonal variation of PU and PUB should be considered when determining allocation of available health care resources.

Trends and seasonality in hospitalizations for acute alcohol-related and biliary pancreatitis in the USA

BACKGROUND

The incidence of acute pancreatitis (AP) is characterized by circannual and geographical variation. The aim of this study was to describe seasonal variation and trends in hospitalizations for AP in the USA with respect to AP etiology.

METHODS

The Nationwide Inpatient Sample data (2000-2016) from the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project were used. The study population included all primary hospitalizations for AP. Biliary AP (BAP) and alcohol-induced AP (AAP) were distinguished by diagnostic and procedural ICD codes. Seasonal trend decomposition was performed.

RESULTS

There was a linear increase in annual incidence (per 100 000 population) of AAP in the USA (from 17.0 in 2000 to 22.9 in 2016), while incidence of BAP, equaled 19.9 in 2000, peaked at 22.1 in 2006 and decreased to 17.4 in 2016. AP incidence demonstrated 18% annual incidence amplitude with summer peak and winter trough, more prominent in AAP. In 2016, within AAP, the highest incidence (per 100 000 population) was noted among African-Americans (up to 50.4), followed by males aged 56-70 years (26.5) and Asians of low income (25.5); within BAP, above the average incidence was observed in Hispanic (up to 25.8) and Asian (up to 25.0) population. The most consistent and rapid increase in AP incidence was noted in males aged 56-70 years with an alcoholic etiology (average 6% annual incidence growth).

CONCLUSIONS

The incidence and annual trends of AP vary significantly among demographic and socioeconomic groups and this knowledge may be useful for the planning of healthcare resources and identification of at-risk populations.

Associations between ambient temperature and hepatobiliary and renal hospitalizations in California, 1999 to 2009

BACKGROUND

High ambient temperature has been linked to a number of types of morbidity, such as cardiovascular disease and dehydration. Fewer studies have explored specifically the relationship between ambient temperature and liver, kidney, and urinary system morbidity despite known biological impacts of extreme high temperatures on those systems.

OBJECTIVE

We assessed the relationship between temperature and hospitalizations related to selected renal system (urinary stones, urinary tract infections, septicemia, chronic kidney disease, and a composite of selected kidney diseases) and hepatobiliary (biliary tract disease, other liver diseases [e.g. cirrhosis], non-diabetic pancreatic disorders) ailments.

METHODS

We compiled data on daily hospitalization counts for hepatobiliary and renal system diseases in California for 1999 through 2009, and matched it with meteorological data. Relationships between temperature and admissions during the warm season (May-October) were assessed at the climate zone-level cumulative over 14 days following exposure using distributed lag non-linear models, with adjustment for time trends and relative humidity, then combined using random-effects meta-regression to create statewide estimates.

RESULTS

Higher mean temperatures in the warm season were associated with significant increases in renal admissions for urinary tract infection [% change per 10 °F: 7.3, 95% CI: 5.6, 9.1], septicemia [% increase: 2.9; 95% CI: 1.5, 4.3], urinary stones [% increase: 15.2; 95% CI: 10.3, 20.4], and composite kidney disease. Additionally, increased temperatures were linked to increased admissions for biliary tract disease, but lower risk of other liver diseases. Some differences in association by race/ethnicity and regional meteorology were observed.

CONCLUSIONS

Exposure to higher temperatures was associated with increased risk of multiple renal system hospitalization types, with additional links to specific hepatobiliary morbidities observed.

Population-based observational study of acute pancreatitis in southern England

INTRODUCTION

Acute pancreatitis is a common surgical emergency. Identifying variations in presentation, incidence and management may assist standardisation and optimisation of care. The objective of the study was to document the current incidence management and outcomes of acute pancreatitis against international guidelines, and to assess temporal trends over the past 20 years.

METHODS

A prospective four-month audit of patients with acute pancreatitis was performed across the Wessex region. The Atlanta 2012 classifications were used to define cases, severity and complications. Outcomes were recorded using validated systems and correlated against guideline standards. Case ascertainment was validated with clinical coding and hospital episode statistics data.

RESULTS

A total of 283 patient admissions with acute pancreatitis were identified. Aetiology included 153 gallstones (54%), 65 idiopathic (23%), 29 alcohol (10%), 9 endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (3%), 6 drug related (2%), 5 tumour (2%) and 16 other (6%). Compliance with guidelines had improved compared with our previous regional audit. Results were 6.5% mortality, 74% severity stratification, 23% idiopathic cases, 65% definitive treatment of gallstones within 2 weeks, 39% computed tomography within 6-10 days of severe pancreatitis presentation and 82% severe pancreatitis critical care admission. The Atlanta 2012 severity criteria significantly correlated with critical care stay, length of stay, development of complications and mortality (2% vs 6% vs 36%, P < 0.0001).

CONCLUSIONS

The incidence of acute pancreatitis in southern England has risen substantially. The Atlanta 2012 classification identifies patients with severe pancreatitis who have a high risk of fatal outcome. Acute pancreatitis management is seen to have evolved in keeping with new evidence and updated clinical guidelines.

Impact of Seasons and Festivals on the Onset of Acute Pancreatitis in Shanghai, China

OBJECTIVES

Seasonal variation on acute pancreatitis (AP) has not been investigated in Eastern Asia. The aims of the study were to assess the association of the onset of AP with the occurrence of seasons and Chinese festivals and to investigate trends in AP incidence in Shanghai, China.

METHODS

From January 2009 to December 2014, a total of 1780 patients with AP were considered. The incidence was assessed by different etiology and severity. Monthly disease prevalence was investigated to explore the seasonal variation. The prevalence on weekdays, weekends, and festivals was evaluated to establish any weekly or festival influences in AP.

RESULTS

Acute pancreatitis increased from 30.5 per 100,000 in 2009 to 39.2 in 2014 (5.1% annual increase), with greatest increases in alcoholic (19.8% annually) and severe AP (13.7% annually). Time series analysis indicated that prevalence was significantly higher form February to May (spring) and from September to October (autumn). Acute pancreatitis increased during Chinese festivals, 17% and 28% greater than that observed on weekdays and weekends, respectively. Prevalence was greatest in Chinese Spring Festival week.

CONCLUSIONS

Acute pancreatitis increased in Shanghai and had a seasonal variation, with a higher frequency of events in the spring and autumn. Chinese festivals are associated with a high prevalence of AP.

The incidence and aetiology of acute pancreatitis across Europe

BACKGROUND

Acute pancreatitis is increasingly one of the most important acute gastrointestinal conditions throughout much of the world, although incidence and aetiology varies across countries and regions. This study investigated regional and national patterns in the incidence and aetiology of acute pancreatitis, demographic patterns in incidence and trends over time in incidence across Europe.

METHODS

A structured review of acute pancreatitis incidence and aetiology from studies of hospitalised patient case series, cohort studies or other population based studies from 1989 to 2015 and a review of trends in incidence from 1970 to 2015 across all 51 European states.

RESULTS

The incidence of acute pancreatitis was reported from 17 countries across Europe and ranged from 4.6 to 100 per 100 000 population. Incidence was usually highest in eastern or northern Europe, although reported rates often varied according to case ascertainment criteria. Of 20 studies that reported on trends in incidence, all but three show percentage increases over time (overall median increase = 3.4% per annum; range = -0.4%-73%). The highest ratios of gallstone to alcohol aetiologies were identified in southern Europe (Greece, Turkey, Italy and Croatia) with lowest ratios mainly in eastern Europe (Latvia, Finland, Romania, Hungary, Russia and Lithuania).

CONCLUSIONS

The incidence of acute pancreatitis varies across Europe. Gallstone is the dominant aetiology in southern Europe and alcohol in eastern Europe with intermediate ratios in northern and western Europe. Acute pancreatitis continues to increase throughout most of Europe.

The incidence of acute pancreatitis: impact of social deprivation, alcohol consumption, seasonal and demographic factors

BACKGROUND

The incidence of acute pancreatitis has increased sharply in many European countries and the USA in recent years.

AIM

To establish trends in incidence and mortality for acute pancreatitis in Wales, UK, and to assess how incidence may be linked to factors including social deprivation, seasonal effects and alcohol consumption.

METHODS

Use of record linked inpatient, mortality and primary care data for 10,589 hospitalised cases of acute pancreatitis between 1999 and 2010.

RESULTS

The incidence of acute pancreatitis was 30.0 per 100,000 population overall, mortality was 6.4% at 60 days. Incidence increased significantly from 27.6 per 100,000 in 1999 to 36.4 in 2010 (average annual increase = 2.7% per year), there was little trend in mortality (0.2% average annual reduction). The largest increases in incidence were among women aged <35 years (7.9% per year) and men aged 35-44 (5.7%) and 45-54 (5.3%). Incidence was 1.9 times higher among the most deprived quintile of patients compared with the most affluent (3.9 times higher for alcoholic acute pancreatitis and 1.5 for gallstone acute pancreatitis). Acute pancreatitis was increased significantly during the Christmas and New Year weeks by 48% (95% CI = 24-77%) for alcoholic aetiology, but not for gallstone aetiology (9%). Alcoholic admissions were increased with higher consumption of spirits and beer, but not wine.

CONCLUSIONS

The study shows an elevated rate of alcoholic acute pancreatitis during the Christmas and New Year period. Acute pancreatitis continues to rise, most rapidly for young women, while alcoholic acute pancreatitis is linked strongly with social deprivation.

Acute Pancreatitis Presenting as Sudden, Unexpected Death

Acute pancreatitis represents a spectrum of disease, ranging from a mild, transitory illness to a severe, rapidly progressive hemorrhagic form, with massive necrosis and mortality rates of up to 24%. The reported incidence of acute pancreatitis diagnosed first at clinicopathologic autopsy ranges between 30% and 42%. To better describe outpatient fatalities due to acute pancreatitis that present as sudden, unexpected death, we retrospectively reviewed the autopsy files at the Institute of Legal Medicine, University of Hamburg, Germany, from 2000-2004. Individual cases were analyzed for sex, age, race, circumstances of death, social background of the deceased and previous medical history, seasonal occurrence of the disease, blood alcohol concentration at the time of death, body mass index, autopsy findings, histopathology, and etiology of acute pancreatitis. Among the 6178 autopsies carried out during the 5-year period evaluated, there were 27 cases of acute pancreatitis that presented as sudden, unexpected death. In all cases, the diagnosis was first made at autopsy. The male:female ratio was 1.7:1 and the mean age was 52 years (range, 30-91 years). Etiologies of acute pancreatitis included alcohol (n=19), gall stones (n=2), other identified etiologic factors (n=3), and idiopathic (n=3). Complications of acute pancreatitis included lung edema and/or acute respiratory distress syndrome, peritonitis, disseminated intravascular coagulation, and sepsis. At least 20 subjects (74%) had lived isolated, with no social contacts. Contrary to the clinical observations of a clear seasonal variation in the onset of acute pancreatitis, we found no correlation between death due to acute pancreatitis and a specific month or season. Many prior studies have suggested that the majority of deaths in severe acute pancreatitis occur in the late phase of the disease as a result of pancreatic sepsis. Conversely, in the present study, the majority of affected individuals died during the very early phase of the disease. While gallstones represent the main etiologic factor in most larger clinical series, biliary etiology seems to play only a minor role in outpatient deaths undergoing medicolegal autopsies. Data derived from medicolegal autopsy studies should be included in future population-based studies of acute pancreatitis.