MELD vs Child-Pugh and creatinine-modified Child-Pugh score for predicting survival in patients with decompensated cirrhosis

Comparison Between Creatinine-Modified Pugh Score and Child-Pugh Score for Prognostication in Decompensated Cirrhosis

Introduction, aim, and objective: Despite recent evidence suggesting the blood creatinine level is a significant predictor of survival in liver cirrhosis patients, the conventional Child-Pugh (CP) score has held a longstanding position as a valuable prognostic indicator in cirrhotic individuals. This study aimed to compare the predictive capabilities of the modified CP score and the traditional CP score in decompensated cirrhosis patients to evaluate their prognostic power. The objective of this study was to assess the prognostic value of the modified and traditional CP scores in individuals with decompensated cirrhosis by assessing their predictive accuracy.

METHODS

A total of 100 patients diagnosed with decompensated cirrhosis participated in this prospective study. Each patient's Child-Pugh score and class were determined using admission data, with scores ranging from 5 to 15. Serum creatinine was incorporated as the sixth variable to compute the modified CP score, which ranges from 5 to 19.

RESULTS

The percentages of individuals aged 16-30, 31-40, 41-50, 51-60, and above 60 years were as follows: 16.0%, 29.0%, 26.0%, and 11.0%, respectively. The patients had a mean age of 44.71 years and a standard deviation of 13.40 years. Out of the 100 patients studied, 26% were female and 74% were male. Fifty-two percent of patients had mild hepatic encephalopathy, while 24% had moderate encephalopathy and 24% had severe encephalopathy. In cases of moderate and severe hepatic encephalopathy, the creatinine-modified Pugh score showed a considerably large area under the curve (AUC=0.852) on the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve.

CONCLUSION

 When blood creatinine is taken into account, it can enhance the Child-Pugh classification's prognostic usefulness. This is especially true for patients with moderate to severe hepatic encephalopathy, where serum creatinine is a key factor in accurately predicting both survival and complications associated with cirrhosis.

Optimizing nutrition in hepatic cirrhosis: A comprehensive assessment and care approach

Cirrhosis is considered a growing cause of morbidity and mortality, which represents a significant public health problem. Currently, there is no effective treatment to reverse cirrhosis. Treatment primarily centers on addressing the underlying liver condition, monitoring, and managing portal hypertension-related complications, and evaluating the potential for liver transplantation in cases of decompensated cirrhosis, marked by rapid progression and the emergence of complications like variceal bleeding, hepatic encephalopathy, ascites, malnutrition, and more. Malnutrition, a prevalent complication across all disease stages, is often underdiagnosed in cirrhosis due to the complexities of nutritional assessment in patients with fluid retention and/or obesity, despite its crucial impact on prognosis. Increasing emphasis has been placed on the collaboration of nutritionists within hepatology and Liver transplant teams to deliver comprehensive care, a practice that has shown to improve outcomes. This review covers appropriate screening and assessment methods for evaluating the nutritional status of this population, diagnostic approaches for malnutrition, and context-specific nutrition treatments. It also discusses evidence-based recommendations for supplementation and physical exercise, both essential elements of the standard care provided to cirrhotic patients.

Model for End Stage Liver Disease (MELD) Score: A Tool for Prognosis and Prediction of Mortality in Patients With Decompensated Liver Cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

Decompensated liver disease has become a common occurrence in medical wards. It has become the third most common cause of death in medical wards. This high mortality rate has become a matter of concern. It is important that a reliable scoring system helps to stratify patients with liver cirrhosis who will require liver transplantation.

OBJECTIVE

To determine the value of the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score in assessing the mortality of patients with decompensated liver cirrhosis over one month period (30 days).

METHODS AND MATERIALS

A longitudinal study was conducted. A total of 110 patients diagnosed with decompensated liver cirrhosis were recruited from the gastroenterology clinic and medical wards of the University of Benin Teaching Hospital (UBTH), Benin City. The patients were recruited consecutively and met the inclusion criteria for the study. Demographic data, history, clinical, biochemical, ultrasonographic, and liver biopsy findings were evaluated in the patients who participated in this study.  Results: The mean age of the patients was 57 ± 11.06 years. Out of the 110 study participants, a 2.9:1 male-to-female ratio was appreciated in the patient population, with a total of 82 males and 28 females. Multiple logistic regression analysis identified MELD scores as an independent predictor of mortality in the studied patients. Predictive values of the MELD score for 1-month mortality which was analyzed using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves showed that the MELD score had a sensitivity of 72.2% and positive predictive value of 93.6% with an area under the curve of 0.926 for all-cause mortality among decompensated liver cirrhosis patients.

CONCLUSION

MELD score is a good predictor of mortality among patients with decompensated liver cirrhosis over a 1-month (30 days) period.

Factors Influencing Blood Concentration of Voriconazole and Therapeutic Drug Monitoring in Patients with Child–Pugh Class C Cirrhosis

What Is Known and Objective. CYP2C19 is an important influencing factor for voriconazole trough plasma concentration (Cmin); however, it is not verified in Child–Pugh C (CP-C) cirrhosis patients, and no voriconazole dosage regimen is recommended for these patients in the package insert. This retrospective study identified CYP2C19 and other factors influencing voriconazole Cmin for CP-C cirrhosis, and obtained an appropriate method of application of voriconazole for them. Methods. A total of 66 patients with CP-C cirrhosis who accepted voriconazole therapy were involved. The voriconazole Cmin, clinical characteristics, CYP2C19 genotype, and adverse effects (AEs) were recorded and analyzed. Results. Unlike other research studies, voriconazole Cmin was not different among normal metabolizers (NMs), intermediate metabolizers (IMs), and poor metabolizers (PMs) of the CYP2C19 enzyme in CP-C cirrhosis ( $P$  > 0.05). The maintenance dose regimen for voriconazole was the only independent influencing factor for Cmin ( $P$  = 0.045; OR = 3.753; 95% CI, 1.029–13.694). At about 1/3 of the recommended maintenance dose, only 16.7% (8/48) had Cmin >5.5 μg/mL, 4.5% (3/48) had Cmin <1 μg/mL, and only one AE happened. There were four voriconazole-related AEs that happened in this study, and three AEs occurred (3/4, 75%) when the maintenance dose was not adjusted with therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM). What Is New and Conclusion. Voriconazole Cmin did not significantly vary according to CYP2C19 enzyme metabolization status (being an NM, IM, or PM) in CP-C cirrhosis. Reducing the maintenance dose of voriconazole to approximately 1/3 the standard maintenance dose and administering in combination with TDM in patients with CP-C cirrhosis are recommended.

The effects of N-acetylcysteine on hepatic, hematologic, and renal parameters in cirrhotic patients: a randomized controlled trial

Aim

To evaluate the effects of N-acetylcysteine (NAC) supplementation in cirrhotic patients.

Background

Chronic hepatic inflammation leads to fibrosis and cirrhosis through various mechanisms such as oxidative stress. NAC is one of the intracellular precursors of glutathione that can degrade most reactive oxygen species. Recently, the beneficial effects of NAC in animal and human studies on preventing liver injury progression and improving liver function have been examined. However, more studies on human subjects are still required.

Methods

Well-known cirrhotic patients with a specific etiology and aged 18 to 70 years who referred to the gastrointestinal clinic of Ayatollah Taleghani Hospital from December 2018 to December 2019 were enrolled in the present randomized double-blind controlled trial. Patients in the intervention group received NAC tablets at a dose of 600 mg daily, and the control group received a placebo. Demographic data, medical characteristics, and Child-Pugh and MELD scores evaluated at baseline and after 6 months.

Results

Totally, 60 patients completed the present study (30 patients in the intervention group, and 30 patients in the control group). Hematological and biochemical parameters were normal in both groups with no significant differences at baseline and 6 months after intervention values. Moreover, the renal function indicators including serum creatinine (Cr) and urea (BUN) decreased significantly after intervention. Hepatic parameters also decreased significantly 6 months after intervention. Decreases in the renal and hepatic parameters 6 months after baseline in the control group were not statistically significant.

Conclusion

The results of this study showed that NAC improved hepatic and renal function by decreasing serum urea and creatinine levels but had no significant effect on hematological and biochemical parameters. Furthermore, NAC significantly improved hepatic profiles by decreasing ALT, AST, and ALP in the liver enzymes between the intervention and control groups. Moreover, NAC caused a significant decrease in Child-Pugh and MELD scores.

Predictive Factors for the Prognosis of Alcoholic Liver Cirrhosis

Alcoholic liver cirrhosis (ALC) is a disease with multiple complications and is associated with poor prognosis and significant mortality. Identifying risk factors associated with a poor outcome is important to ensure effective treatment and increase life expectancy. We aimed to evaluate the predictive values of complications regarding mortality in ALC. We retrospectively analyzed 1429 patients with ALC hospitalized between January 2019 and April 2022 at the Institute of Gastroenterology and Hepatology Iasi. The electronic medical records were interrogated to obtain information about demographic data, complications, comorbidities, and prognostic scores: MELD-Na (model for end-stage liver disease-sodium) and CTP (Child−Turcotte−Pugh). Based on uni- and multivariate analysis, independent predictors of mortality were identified. The mean age at diagnosis was 56.15 ± 11.49 years with a ratio of 2:1 in favor of males. There were 296 deaths (20.8%), most of them during the first hospitalization (208/14.6%). It was observed during the univariate analysis that complications of the disease negatively affected the survival rate, significant values being related to infections (sepsis; OR = 21.98; p < 0.001; spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP) (OR = 11.94; p < 0.001) and hepatorenal syndrome (HRS) (OR = 9.35; p < 0.001). The independent predictors, confirmed by multivariate analysis, were the association of variceal bleeding, infections, and hepatic encephalopathy or ascites, each combination being responsible for two out of 10 of the deaths during the first admission. The prognosis of the disease was negatively influenced by the worsening of liver dysfunction and the appearance of complications. The main predictors of mortality were infections, hepatic encephalopathy, variceal bleeding, and hepatorenal syndrome. Improving compliance and strict application of specific follow-up and treatment strategies could contribute to a better prognosis of patients with alcoholic liver cirrhosis.

Liver Function-How to Screen and to Diagnose: Insights from Personal Experiences, Controlled Clinical Studies and Future Perspectives

Acute and chronic liver disease is a relevant problem worldwide. Liver function plays a crucial role in the course of liver diseases not only in estimating prognosis but also with regard to therapeutic interventions. Within this review, we discuss and evaluate different tools from screening to diagnosis and give insights from personal experiences, controlled clinical studies and future perspectives. Finally, we offer our novel diagnostic algorithm to screen patients with presumptive acute or chronic liver disease in the daily clinical routine.

Renal and brain failure predict mortality of patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure admitted to the intensive care unit

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES

Acute on Chronic Liver Failure (ACLF) is characterized by organ failure and high 28-day mortality. Identifying clinical predictors associated with early mortality could have implications for the treatment of patients with ACLF.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Patients diagnosed with chronic liver failure that developed ACLF based on the EASL-CLIF Consortium definition admitted to the Intensive care unit of a tertiary hospital between 2012-2018 were included. Bivariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were performed to identify factors associated with mortality.

RESULTS

148 patients (55% female) were diagnosed with ACLF of which 55% (n = 82) had ACLF grade 3, 28% (n = 41) grade 2 and 17% (n = 25) grade 1. The median age was 54 years (41-63). Hepatitis C virus (HCV) was the most frequent etiology in 29.8% (n = 44) of the patients with bacterial infection being the most predominant precipitant factor in 58.1% (n = 86). Ninety-day global cumulative survival was only 18%. When divided by grade, mortality reached to 10% in ACLF 3. Moreover, in the multivariate Cox regression analysis, renal failure (HR 3.26, 95% CI (2.13-4.99), brain failure (HR 1.37, 95% CI 1.09-2.04) and male sex (HR 1.62, 95% CI 1.10-2.40) were independent predictors of 28- and 90-day mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

ACLF is a frequent syndrome among chronic liver disease patients. Brain and renal failure are significantly associated with higher mortality and are independent predictors of 28 and 90-day mortality.

Mortality and Its Determinants in Adult Patients with End-stage Liver Disease on Waiting List for Liver Transplantation: A Preliminary Report on Baseline Data

Background: Prevention of death in patients on the waiting list for liver transplantation (LT) is a major concern to prioritize organ allocation. Since the model for the end-stage liver disease (MELD) and its modifications have many shortages, there is a need for further refinement of the allocation strategy. Objectives: The current study aimed at assessing the predictors of mortality in LT candidates in a more comprehensive manner with the possible implications to improve the care of such patients and assist in developing better strategies for organ allocation. Methods: In the current cohort study, 544 adult LT candidates with end-stage liver disease were followed up for a mean of 12 months in three-month intervals. Data analysis was performed in Nutritionist, SPSS, and R software, using Kaplan-Meier, Cox proportional hazard (HRC), and LASSO Cox regression hazard (HRL) tests. Results: The mean age of the patients was 46.7 ± 13.7 years; the majority were male (n = 336, 61.7%). At the end of the study, 414 (76.1%) subjects were still alive and 130 (23.9%) dead. The cumulative percentages of death were 33.1%, 57.7%, and 79.2% after 3, 6, and 12 months of waiting for a donor, respectively. Although there was a strong association between having hepatopulmonary syndrome (HPS) (HRC = 4.7, HRL = 1.8), a history of myocardial infarction (MI) (HRC = 3.3, HRL = 1.6), low-carbohydrate (CHO) diet (HRC = 2.7, HRL = 1.5), and mortality, it was weak for MELD score. Moreover, a serum level of CA 125, high polymorphonuclear (PMN) count, weight loss, a high level of alanine aminotransferase (ALT), positive hepatitis B virus (HBV) markers, high mean corpuscular volume (MCV) of red blood cells, ascites, and edema of gallbladder wall had association with mortality in LT patients. Conclusions: In addition to MELD score, HPS, a history of MI, low CHO intake, weight loss, ascites, PMN, CA 125, ALT, hepatitis B surface antigen, MCV, blood urea nitrogen, and gallbladder wall thickness are predictors of mortality in LT candidates and need to be considered in the LT allocation system.

Mortality rates and risk factors in 1412 Japanese patients with decompensated hepatitis C virus-related cirrhosis: a retrospective long-term cohort study

Background

Hepatitis C virus is the leading cause of liver cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma in Japan. We aimed to examine the long-term (> 20 years) mortality and hepatocellular carcinoma rates and associated risk factors in 1412 Japanese patients with decompensated hepatitis C virus-related cirrhosis (Child–Pugh B or C).

Methods

Cumulative survival and hepatocellular carcinoma rates were determined using Kaplan–Meier analysis. Independent risk factors were identified by multivariate analysis. A two-tailed P-value of < 0.05 was considered significant.

Results

The patients were followed up for a median of 2 years (range 0.5–24.2 years). In total, 62.3%, 41.7%, 4.7%, and 68.3% of the patients had a history of hepatocellular carcinoma, ascites, hepatic encephalopathy, and esophageal varices, respectively. The 1-, 5-, 10-, and 20-year cumulative overall survival rates in the total cohort was 74.9%, 29.0%, 9.1%, and 1.4%, respectively. The 1-, 3-, 5-, and 10-year cumulative survival rates for patients without hepatocellular carcinoma were 93.1%, 54.4%, 18.2%, and 4.0%, respectively, and the corresponding cumulative post-decompensation hepatocellular carcinoma rates were 14.0%, 31.6%, 46.1%, and 66.2%, respectively. The independent risk factors for mortality were older age, Child–Pugh C cirrhosis, the presence of hepatocellular carcinoma, low estimated glomerular filtration rate, low serum sodium level, low platelet count, and high γ-glutamyl transferase and α-fetoprotein levels for all patients and older age, Child–Pugh C cirrhosis, and low estimated glomerular filtration rate for patients without hepatocellular carcinoma. Overall, 1035 patients (73.3%) died; the causes of death were liver failure with/without hepatocellular carcinoma, pneumonia, sepsis, cardiovascular disease, and non-hepatocellular carcinoma malignancies. The corresponding morality rates per person-year were 133.4, 59.9, 10.9, 10.6, 9.0, and 5.2, respectively.

Conclusions

Among Japanese patients with decompensated hepatitis C virus-related cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma is associated with poor prognosis. Our results highlight the importance of managing liver-related events, including hepatocellular carcinoma, in these patients.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12876-021-01770-0.

[Influence of a spontaneous bacterial peritonitis, nosocomial infections and acute-on-chronic liver failure on treatment revenues in patients with decompensated cirrhosis in Germany]

BACKGROUND

 The economic effects of spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP), nosocomial infections (nosInf) and acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) have so far been poorly studied. We analyzed the impact of these complications on treatment revenues in hospitalized patients with decompensated cirrhosis.

METHODS

 371 consecutive patients with decompensated liver cirrhosis, who received a paracentesis between 2012 and 2016, were included retrospectively. DRG (diagnosis-related group), "ZE/NUB" (additional charges/new examination/treatment methods), medication costs, length of hospital stay as well as different kinds of specific treatments (e. g., dialysis) were considered. Exclusion criteria included any kind of malignancy, a history of organ transplantation and/or missing accounting data.

RESULTS

 Total treatment costs (DRG + ZE/NUB) were higher in those with nosInf (€ 10,653 vs. € 5,611, p < 0.0001) driven by a longer hospital stay (23 d vs. 12 d, p < 0.0001). Of note, revenues per day were not different (€ 473 vs. € 488, p = 0.98) despite a far more complicated treatment with a more frequent need for dialysis (p < 0.0001) and high-complex care (p = 0.0002). Similarly, SBP was associated with higher total revenues (€ 10,307 vs. € 6,659, p < 0.0001). However, the far higher effort for the care of SBP patients resulted in lower daily revenues compared to patients without SBP (€ 443 vs. € 499, p = 0.18). ACLF increased treatment revenues to € 10,593 vs. €6,369 without ACLF (p < 0.0001). While treatment of ACLF was more complicated, revenue per day was not different to no-ACLF patients (€ 483 vs. € 480, p = 0.29).

CONCLUSION

 SBP, nosInf and/or ACLF lead to a significant increase in the effort, revenue and duration in the treatment of patients with cirrhosis. The lower daily revenue, despite a much more complex therapy, might indicate that these complications are not yet sufficiently considered in the German DRG system.

C-reactive Protein Can Predict Patients with Cirrhosis at a High Risk of Early Mortality after Acute Esophageal Variceal Bleeding

Objective The aim of this study was to identify patients with a high risk of early mortality after acute esophageal variceal bleeding by measuring the C-reactive protein (CRP) level. Methods We retrospectively evaluated 154 consecutive cirrhotic patients admitted with acute esophageal variceal bleeding. Differences between categorical variables were assessed by the chi-square test. Continuous variables were compared using the Mann-Whitney U-test. Multivariate logistic regression analyses consisting of clinical laboratory parameters were performed to identify risk factors associated with the 6-week mortality. The discriminative ability and the best cut-off value were assessed by a receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. Results Child-Pugh C patients showed a significantly higher 6-week mortality than Child-Pugh A or B patients (38% vs. 6%, p<0.0001). The 6-week mortality in Child-Pugh C patients was associated with the age (p<0.0001), etiology of cirrhosis (p=0.003), hepatocellular carcinoma (p=0.0003), portal vein thrombosis (p=0.005), baseline creatinine (p=0.0001), albumin (p=0.001), white blood cell count (p=0.038), baseline CRP [p=0.0004; area under the ROC (AUROC)=0.765; optimum cut-off value at 1.30 mg/dL] and bacterial infection (p=0.019). We determined that CRP ≥1.30 mg/dL was an independent predictor for 6-week mortality in Child-Pugh C patients [odds ratio (OR)=8.789; 95% confidence interval (CI): 2.080-47.496; p=0.003], along with a creatinine level of 0.71 mg/dL (OR=17.628; 95% CI: 2.349-384.426; p=0.004) (73% mortality if CRP ≥1.30 mg/dL vs. 19% if CRP<1.30 mg/dL, p<0.0001). Conclusion In Child-Pugh C patients with esophageal variceal bleeding, a baseline CRP ≥1.30 mg/dL can help identify patients with an increased risk of mortality.

Scoring systems for prediction of mortality in decompensated liver cirrhosis: A meta-analysis of test accuracy

AIM

To compare the accuracy of the scoring systems Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP), Model for End-stage Liver Disease score (MELD), MELD-Na, and MELD to Serum Sodium ratio (MESO) to predict the mortality in decompensated liver cirrhosis.

METHODS

The PubMed, Web of Science, Cochrane Library, EMBASE, and Ovid databases were systematically searched from inception to September 2018 for relevant articles, and we evaluated the quality of the included studies. The accuracy of scoring systems was analyzed with Stata 12 and MetaDiSc 1.4.

RESULTS

Sixteen studies involving 2337 patients were included. The pooled areas under the summary receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROCs) of CTP, MELD, MELD-Na, and MESO to predict mortality were 0.81, 0.78, 0.85, and 0.86, respectively. Within 3 mo, the AUROCs of CTP, MELD, and MELD-Na in predicting mortality were 0.78, 0.76, and 0.89, respectively. The AUROCs of CTP, MELD, and MELD-Na at 3 mo were 0.86, 0.78, and 0.86, respectively. The AUROCs of CTP, MELD, and MELD-Na at 6 mo were 0.91, 0.83, and 0.90, respectively. The AUROCs of CTP, MELD, and MELD-Na at 12 mo were 0.72, 0.75 and 0.84, respectively. In cirrhotic patients with bleeding, the AUROCs of CTP and MELD were 0.76 and 0.88, respectively.

CONCLUSION

MESO has the highest AUROC in all assessed scoring systems. Considering the different time points, MELD-Na has good accuracy in predicting the mortality of decompensated liver cirrhosis. Compared to CTP, MELD is better in predicting variceal bleeding.

Positive expression of ZNF689 indicates poor prognosis of hepatocellular carcinoma

The objective of the present study was to investigate the association between zinc finger protein (ZNF) 689 expression and the clinicopathological features and prognosis of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). A total of 102 paired HCC and paired non-cancerous tissues, and 16 normal liver tissues were collected. ZNF689 expression was examined in HCC tissues, paired-noncancerous tissues, and normal liver tissues using RT-qPCR and immunohistochemistry analysis, and the association between ZNF689 expression and HCC prognosis was analyzed using the Kaplan-Meier method. ZNF689 expression was not significantly different between HCC tissues and paired-noncancerous tissues (P=0.61). ZNF689 expression in HCC and paired-noncancerous tissues was significantly increased compared with that in normal liver tissues (P<0.01). Positive expression of ZNF689 protein in HCC was significantly associated with a tumor size of ≥10 cm, tumor capsule infiltration, and microvascular invasion (P<0.05). Positive expression of ZNF689 was a prognostic factor for overall survival time [hazard ratio (HR):1.961; P=0.048] and progression-free survival time (HR:1.902; P=0.041). ZNF689 maybe a novel predictor for prognosis of patients with HCC.

Diagnostic specificity and sensitivity of PIVKAII, GP3, CSTB, SCCA1 and HGF for the diagnosis of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with alcoholic liver cirrhosis

Introduction

Despite some new treatment possibilities, the improvement in survival rate for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients is still poor due to late diagnosis. The aim of this study was to investigate the diagnostic sensitivity and specificity of protein induced by vitamin K absence or antagonist-II (PIVKAII), Glypican-3 (GP3), Cystatin B (CSTB), squamous cell carcinoma antigen 1 (SCCA1) and hepatocyte growth factor (HGF) as potential tumour markers for HCC in patients with alcoholic liver cirrhosis (ALC) using imaging techniques (MSCT and MRI) as reference standards.

Patients and methods

Eighty-three participants were included: 20 healthy volunteers, 31 patients with ALC and 32 patients with HCC. Peripheral blood sampling was performed for each participant, and serum concentrations of PIVKAII, GP3, CSTB, SCCA1 and HGF were determined using commercial ELISA kits.

Results

Only serum concentrations of PIVKAII were significantly higher in HCC patients as compared with ALC and healthy controls (cut-off: 2.06  µg/L; AUC: 0.903), whereas individual diagnostic performance of other individual compounds was inadequate. The ‘best’ combination of tumour markers in our study includes all tested markers with AUC of 0.967.

Conclusion

While novel diagnostic tumour markers are urgently needed, the examined potential tumour markers, with the exception of PIVKAII seem to be inadequate for diagnosing HCC in ALC. Furthermore, probably the future is in finding the best optimal combination of tumour markers for diagnosing HCC based on cost-effectiveness.

Prognostic Models for Survival in Patients with Stable Cirrhosis: A Multicenter Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Two models are mostly used to predict survival in cirrhosis: the Child-Pugh score (CP score) and the model for end-stage liver disease score (MELD score).

AIMS

The aim of this study is to evaluate the CP score and the MELD score for short- and long-term prognosis in cirrhosis, as well as CP-creatinine score, MELD-Na score, and UKELD score.

METHODS

One thousand and forty-seven patients from five referral centers were included: men/women: 620/427, median age: 58 years (IQR 48-66), median follow-up: 33 months (IQR 12-74), CP (A/B/C): 493/357/147, CP score: 7 (IQR 5-9), MELD score: 12 (IQR 9-16). The performance of each score was evaluated by the Cox hazard model in terms of their: discrimination ability (C-index and Somer's D) and calibration (3, 12 months). Internal validation was done with bootstrapping (100 samples).

RESULTS

Three hundred and fifty-two patients (33.6%) died. All scores were significantly associated with overall mortality, when assessed by univariate Cox analysis. CP-creatinine score performed significantly better than all other scores [bootstrap C-index 0.672, 95% CI 0.642-0.703, bootstrap Somer's D 0.344 (0.285-0.401)], apart from CP score, which showed similar performance. Inclusion in the multivariable Cox model of age together with CP-creatinine score improved the discriminative ability of the model [bootstrap C-index (95% CI) 0.700 (0.661-0.740)]. In terms of calibration, CP-creatinine score was the best for both 3- and 12-month survival in the total population.

CONCLUSIONS

CP score and CP-creatinine score have better prognostic value compared to MELD score, MELD-Na score, and UKELD score for predicting short- and long-term mortality in patients with stable cirrhosis.

Consensus Statement on Dose Modifications of Antidiabetic Agents in Patients with Hepatic Impairment

Liver disease is an important cause of mortality in type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). It is estimated that diabetes is the most common cause of liver disease in the United States. Virtually, entire spectrum of liver disease is seen in T2DM including abnormal liver enzymes, nonalcoholic fatty liver disease, cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma, and acute liver failure. The treatment of diabetes mellitus (DM) in cirrhotic patients has particular challenges as follows: (1) about half the patients have malnutrition; (2) patients already have advanced liver disease when clinical DM is diagnosed; (3) most of the oral antidiabetic agents (ADAs) are metabolized in the liver; (4) patients often have episodes of hypoglycemia. The aim of this consensus group convened during the National Insulin Summit 2015, Puducherry, was to focus on the challenges with glycemic management, with particular emphasis to safety of ADAs across stages of liver dysfunction. Published literature, product labels, and major clinical guidelines were reviewed and summarized. The drug classes included are biguanides (metformin), the second- or third-generation sulfonylureas, alpha-glucosidase inhibitors, thiazolidinediones, dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors, sodium-glucose co-transporter 2 inhibitors, glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists, and currently available insulins. Consensus recommendations have been drafted for glycemic targets and dose modifications of all ADAs. These can aid clinicians in managing patients with diabetes and liver disease.

Predictors of Mortality in Long-Term Follow-Up of Patients with Terminal Alcoholic Cirrhosis: Is It Time to Accept Remodeled Scores?

OBJECTIVE

To identify the prognostic score that is the best predictor of outcome in patients hospitalized with decompensated liver cirrhosis.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

In this prospective study, 126 patients were enrolled and followed up for 29 months. For each patient, prognostic scores were calculated; these included the Child-Turcotte-Pugh score (CTP score), CTP creatinine-modified I score, CTP creatinine-modified II score, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD score), MELD model for end-stage liver disease sodium-modified score, Integrated MELD score, updated MELD score, United Kingdom MELD, and the MELD score remodeled by serum sodium index (MESO index). Cox regression analysis was used to assess the ability of each of the scores for predicting mortality in patients with alcoholic cirrhosis. Their discriminatory ability was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis.

RESULTS

The updated MELD score had the highest predictive value (3.29) among the tested scores (95% CI: 2.26-4.78). ROC curve analysis demonstrated that the MELD score of 22.50 (AUC = 0.914, 95% CI: 0.849-0.978; p < 0.001) had the best discriminative ability for identifying patients with a high risk of mortality; the next best was the MESO index of 16.00 (AUC = 0.912, 95% CI: 0.847-0.978; p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

The risk of mortality was highest in patients with the highest updated MELD score, and those with MELD scores >22.50 and a MESO index >16.00.

Child-Pugh Versus MELD Score for the Assessment of Prognosis in Liver Cirrhosis: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Observational Studies

Child-Pugh and MELD scores have been widely used for the assessment of prognosis in liver cirrhosis. A systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to compare the discriminative ability of Child-Pugh versus MELD score to assess the prognosis of cirrhotic patients.PubMed and EMBASE databases were searched. The statistical results were summarized from every individual study. The summary areas under receiver operating characteristic curves, sensitivities, specificities, positive and negative likelihood ratios, and diagnostic odds ratios were also calculated.Of the 1095 papers initially identified, 119 were eligible for the systematic review. Study population was heterogeneous among studies. They included 269 comparisons, of which 44 favored MELD score, 16 favored Child-Pugh score, 99 did not find any significant difference between them, and 110 did not report the statistical significance. Forty-two papers were further included in the meta-analysis. In patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure, Child-Pugh score had a higher sensitivity and a lower specificity than MELD score. In patients admitted to ICU, MELD score had a smaller negative likelihood ratio and a higher sensitivity than Child-Pugh score. In patients undergoing surgery, Child-Pugh score had a higher specificity than MELD score. In other subgroup analyses, Child-Pugh and MELD scores had statistically similar discriminative abilities or could not be compared due to the presence of significant diagnostic threshold effects.Although Child-Pugh and MELD scores had similar prognostic values in most of cases, their benefits might be heterogeneous in some specific conditions. The indications for Child-Pugh and MELD scores should be further identified.

Hepatic Failure

The progression of liver disease can cause several physiologic derangements that may precipitate hepatic failure and require admission to an intensive care unit. The underlying pathology may be acute, acute-on chronic, or chronic in nature. Liver failure may manifest with a variety of clinical signs and symptoms that need prompt attention. The compromised synthetic and metabolic activity of the failing liver affects all organ systems, from neurologic to integumentary. Supportive care and specific therapies should be instituted in order to improve outcome and minimize time of recovery.

In this chapter we will discuss the definition, clinical manifestations, workup, and management of acute and chronic liver failure and the general principles of treatment of these patients. Management of liver failure secondary to certain common etiologies will also be presented. Finally, liver transplantation and alternative therapies will also be discussed.

Serum Sphingolipid Variations Associate with Hepatic Decompensation and Survival in Patients with Cirrhosis

Background

Sphingolipids constitute bioactive molecules with functional implications in liver homeostasis. Particularly, ablation of very long chain ceramides in a knockout mouse model has been shown to cause a severe hepatopathy.

Methods

We aimed to evaluate the serum sphingolipid profile of 244 patients with cirrhosis prospectively followed for a median period of 228±217 days via mass spectrometry.

Results

We thereby observed a significant decrease of long and very long chain ceramides, particularly of C24ceramide, in patients with increasing severity of cirrhosis (p<0.001). Additionally, hydropic decompensation, defined by clinical presentation of ascites formation, was significantly correlated to low C24ceramide levels (p<0.001) while a significant association to hepatic decompensation and poor overall survival was observed for low serum concentrations of C24ceramide (p<0.001) as well. Multivariate analysis further identified low serum C24ceramide to be independently associated to overall survival (standard beta = -0.001, p = 0.022).

Conclusions

In our current analysis serum levels of very long chain ceramides show a significant reciprocal correlation to disease severity and hepatic decompensation and are independently associated with overall survival in patients with cirrhosis. Serum sphingolipid metabolites and particularly C24ceramide may constitute novel molecular targets of disease severity, hepatic decompensation and overall prognosis in cirrhosis and should be further evaluated in basic research studies.

Creatinine modified Child-Turcotte-Pugh and integrated model of end-stage liver disease scores as predictors of spontaneous bacterial peritonitis-related in-hospital mortality: Applicable or not

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Despite intensive management, spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP) is associated with poor prognosis especially in hospitalized patients. Therefore, the aim of this study was to determine prognostic factors for SBP-related in-hospital mortality, and to evaluate the predictive power of Child-Pugh (CP), model of end-stage liver disease (MELD), creatinine modified Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CrCTP), and integrated MELD (iMELD) for identifying the best score to predict mortality.

METHODS

Predictors of SBP-related in-hospital mortality were assessed using regression analysis over 100 cirrhotic patients. Predictive abilities of CP, MELD, CrCTP, and iMELD were compared using the area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC).

RESULTS

SBP-related in-hospital mortality was 22%. Age, serum creatinine, bilirubin, sodium, CrCTP, MELD, and iMELD were associated with mortality. Using AUC, CrCTP, and iMELD was significantly better than CP and MELD in predicting in-hospital mortality, where iMELD had the highest AUC (0.862). The cut-off with the best ability to predict in-hospital mortality was 43.5 for iMELD.

CONCLUSION

Age, serum creatinine, bilirubin, and sodium were associated with SBP-related in-hospital mortality. The incorporation of these variables into CP and MELD significantly improves their predictive ability. iMELD followed by CrCTP provided useful prognostic information for critically ill patients with SBP.

A revised scope in different prognostic models in cirrhotic patients: Current and future perspectives, an Egyptian experience

BACKGROUND AND STUDY AIM

The prognosis of cirrhosis is of great interest for liver transplantation and new therapies of related complications. Traditional prognostic models such as Child-Pugh (CP) and Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) were developed to predict mortality in decompensated cirrhosis, but lack parameter(s) related to complications. Recently, new models such as creatinine-modified Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CrCTP) and sodium-based MELD variants were developed to improve prognostic accuracy and enhance outcome predictive capability. Our aim was to investigate the prognostic ability of these models and their relation to complications among Egyptian cirrhotic patients to determine the best one and to assess adding new variables to improve the prognostic ability of that model.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

A total of 1000 cirrhotic patients were enrolled in a retrospective study; traditional and new prognostic models such as CP, MELD, CrCTP, integrated MELD (iMELD), MELD plus sodium (MELD-Na, MELDNa) and MELD:sodium ratio (MESO) were calculated. The predictive abilities of prognostic models were compared using the area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and 1-year survival rates were evaluated by Kaplan-Meier survival analysis. An index of cirrhosis-related complications was added to reveal the best prognostic model.

RESULTS

Using AUC, MELD and its sodium variants was significantly better than CP and CrCTP scores in predicting risk of 1-year mortality, where MELD-sodium (MELD-Na) had the highest AUC (0.743). Adding an index of cirrhosis-related complications (C) to MELD-Na creating a new scoring system (MELD-Na-C) improved its prognostic accuracy (AUC 0.753). Kaplan-Meier survival curves predicted increased mortality with higher prognostic scores.

CONCLUSIONS

All prognostic models were good predictors of 1-year mortality in patients with decompensated cirrhosis; however, MELD-Na was the best for outcome prediction. MELD-Na-C was a new model enhancing the predictive accuracy in assessing cirrhotic patients with related complications.

Alkaline phosphatase: the next independent predictor of the poor 90-day outcome in alcoholic hepatitis

AIM

Determination of risk factors relevant to 90-day prognosis in AH. Comparison of the conventional prognostic models such as Maddrey's modified discriminant function (mDF) and Child-Pugh-Turcotte (CPT) score with newer ones: the Glasgow Alcoholic Hepatitis Score (GAHS); Age, Bilirubin, INR, Creatinine (ABIC) score, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD), and MELD-Na in the death prediction.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

The clinical and laboratory variables obtained at admission were assessed. The mDF, CPT, GAHS, ABIC, MELD, and MELD-Na scores' different areas under the curve (AUCs) and the best threshold values were compared. Logistic regression was used to assess predictors of the 90-day outcome.

RESULTS

One hundred sixteen pts fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Twenty (17.4%) pts died and one underwent orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT) within 90 days of follow-up. No statistically significant differences in the models' performances were found. Multivariate logistic regression identified CPT score, alkaline phosphatase (AP) level higher than 1.5 times the upper limit of normal (ULN), and corticosteroids (CS) nonresponse as independent predictors of mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

The CPT score, AP > 1.5 ULN, and the CS nonresponse had an independent impact on the 90-day survival in AH. Accuracy of all studied scoring systems was comparable.

Moderate hyperkalemia in hospitalized patients with cirrhotic ascites indicates a poor prognosis

OBJECTIVE

Development of ascites in patients with liver cirrhosis is an ominous sign with a poor outcome. A liver transplantation must be considered, and it then becomes important to know if there are any factors indicating a worsened prognosis.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

We used official registers for a follow-up study of at least 5 years considering the prognosis of 155 prospectively recruited in-patients with cirrhotic ascites from medical units at nine Swedish university hospitals. All patients had undergone at least one diagnostic ascites tap, and had initially been questioned about background factors and physically examined according to a standardized case record form, followed by sampling of blood, urine, and ascites.

RESULTS

Death occurred within 1 year after inclusion in 53% of the cases, and was primarily liver-related in 70%. In a multivariable analysis, the two ordinary variables that showed the strongest correlation with risk of death were serum potassium and abdominal tenderness. All 22 patients with a serum potassium concentration of at least 4.8 mmol/L (maximum 5.8 mmol/L) died within 1 year after inclusion. Potassium concentration was related to renal function and potassium-saving drugs.

CONCLUSION

This follow-up study of a prospectively recruited cohort of in-patients with cirrhotic ascites confirms their poor prognosis. Awareness of an elevated serum potassium value, which would reflect a threatened renal function, seems essential, because it may offer a simple way to identify cases with the worst prognosis. An area for further research should be to explore the significance of including serum potassium in prognostic models.

Serum lactate level predict mortality in elderly patients with cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

Cirrhotic patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) usually have multi-organ failure. Multiple organ failure entails a very poor outcome in all intensive care patients. Cirrhotic patients show high morbidity and mortality rates compared with other critically ill patients. Severity scores have been developed for cirrhotic patients admitted to ICU. The main aim of this study was to determine whether lactate level gives any predictive value for mortality in cirrhotic elderly patients admitted to the ICU.

METHODS

In all the patients enrolled, a diagnosis of cirrhosis was confirmed either histologically or by resorting to clinical, laboratory, and ultrasonographic findings. During this period, patients with cirrhosis were admitted to the ICU with varying indications. Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP), Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD), Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE II) and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) scores and lactate were compared between deceased and discharged patients.

RESULTS

A total of 90 consenting patients were enrolled in this study. The mean age of all the patients was 69 ± 5.919. We detected etiological factors for cirrhosis as HBV, HCV, alcohol, and cryptogenic cirrhosis. Hepatorenal syndrome and spontaneous bacterial peritonitis were significantly higher in patients who died than in those who were discharged from the ICU (p values were 0.01 and 0.028, respectively). Lactate level, CTP, APACHE II, MELD and SOFA scores were significantly higher in patients who died than in those who were discharged from the ICU (p values were 0.002,  <  0.001, < 0.001, and < 0.001, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

Many factors may be useful as a predictor of mortality in ICU in elderly patients with cirrhosis. In terms of prognostic value, the lactate level and APACHE II score are the two best predictive factors in cirrhotic elderly patients admitted to the ICU.

Systematic review of noncancer presentations with a median survival of 6 months or less

PURPOSE

We report on clinical indicators of 6-month mortality in advanced noncancer illnesses and the effect of treatment on survival.

METHODS

The MEDLINE database was searched comprehensively to find studies evaluating survival for common advanced noncancer illnesses. We retrieved and evaluated studies that reported a median survival of ≤1 year and evaluated prognostic factors or effect of treatment on survival. We extracted data on presentations with median survivals of ≤6 months for heart failure, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, dementia, geriatric failure to thrive, cirrhosis, and end-stage renal failure. Independent risk factors for survival were combined and included if their combination was associated with a 6-month mortality of ≥50%.

RESULTS

The search identified 1000 potentially relevant studies, of which 475 were retrieved and evaluated, and 74 were included. We report the common clinical presentations that are consistently associated with a 6-month median survival. Even though advanced noncancer syndromes differ clinically, a universal set of prognostic factors signals progression to terminal disease, including poor performance status, advanced age, malnutrition, comorbid illness, organ dysfunction, and hospitalization for acute decompensation. Generally, a 6-month median survival is associated with the presence of 2-4 of these factors. With few exceptions, these terminal presentations are quite refractory to treatment.

CONCLUSION

This systematic review summarizes prognostic factors common to advanced noncancer illness. There is little evidence at present that treatment prolongs survival at these terminal stages.

Use of hepatotoxic drugs in chronic liver disease

Cirrhosis and chronic liver disease are common illnesses that cause high mortality and require treatment. Medication use in these patients may be challenging because of idiosyncratic or dose-dependent drug toxicity. Therefore, drug choice and drug dose adaptations play an important role. The objective of this clinical review is to discuss the literature about and challenges in drug use in patients with chronic liver disease. To make good decisions regarding drug choice and dose adjustments in these patients, well-defined clinical information about diagnoses and laboratory results (creatinine, international normalized ratio, bilirubin, and serologies) as well as in some instances, pathological findings like liver biopsies are needed. In a second step, these data should be organized in electronically supported clinical decision systems, which can then assist providers in making choices about medication selection and dosage. In summary, although substantial research has been done in the field of drug use in patients with liver dysfunction, a great deal also remains to be learned. Although many of these patients can now be identified, it is still very difficult to assess their individual level of hepatic function. The degree of risk associated with drug use and how best to use medications in these patients represents an important area for further study. In the future, pharmacogenomics and electronic linking of clinical data may well prove helpful for making decisions about optimal drug choices in this complex group of patients.

Clinical profile and predictors of mortality in patients of acute-on-chronic liver failure

BACKGROUND

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is characterised by acute hepatic insult manifesting as jaundice and coagulopathy, complicated within 4 weeks by ascites and/or encephalopathy in patients with previously diagnosed or undiagnosed chronic liver disease. We studied the clinical, biochemical and etiological profiles of ACLF patients investigating variables which could predict mortality.

METHODS

Consecutive ACLF patients were enrolled and given standard intensive care management. They were monitored for predictors of 90-day mortality.

RESULTS

91 patients were included; besides jaundice (median bilirubin 23.1mg/dL) and coagulopathy, acute onset ascites with or without encephalopathy was the presenting symptom in 92%. In all patients a first diagnosis of chronic liver disease was made, mainly due to hepatitis B (37%) or alcohol (34%). Reactivation of chronic hepatitis B and alcoholic hepatitis were the common acute insults. The 90-day mortality was 63%. On multivariate analysis, hepatic encephalopathy, low serum sodium, and high INR were found to be independent baseline predictors of mortality. Amongst all severity scores studied, MELD, SOFA and APACHE-II scores had AUROCs of >0.8 which was significantly higher than that of Child-Turcotte-Pugh.

CONCLUSIONS

ACLF has very high mortality. Hepatic encephalopathy, low serum sodium and high INR predict poor outcome. Mortality can also be predicted by baseline MELD, SOFA or APACHE-II scores.

Predicting Mortality Across a Broad Spectrum of Liver Disease-An Assessment of Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD), Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP), and Creatinine-Modified CTP Scores

BACKGROUND/AIMS

The role of model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) among Indian patients with cirrhosis is uncertain. We studied and compared MELD with Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) and creatinine-modified-CTP (CrCTP) scores for predicting 1-, 3-, and 6-months mortality.

METHODS

One-hundred and two patients with cirrhosis were studied. The CrCTP was calculated by adding creatinine score of 0, 2 and 4 with creatinine levels of ≤1.2mg/dL, 1.3-1.8 mg/dL and ≥1.9mg/dL, respectively to CTP score. Survival curves were plotted and receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves were used to compare the scores. Predictors of mortality were analyzed using Cox proportional hazards model.

RESULTS

Scores of CTP, CrCTP, and MELD have excellent diagnostic accuracy for predicting mortality (c-statistics >0.85). The MELD was superior to CTP for predicting 3-months [c-statistic and 95% confidence interval, 0.967 (0.911-0.992) vs 0.884 (0.806-0.939)] and 6-months [0.977 (0.925-0.996) vs 0.908 (0.835-0.956)] mortality (P=0.05), while CrCTP [0.958 (0.899-0.988)] was better than CTP for predicting 3-months mortality (P=0.02). Serum creatinine (hazard ratio 4.43, P<0.0001) is a strong independent predictor of mortality.

CONCLUSION

The MELD accurately predicts mortality in cirrhosis and is better than CTP for predicting the short-term and intermediate-term mortality. Adding serum creatinine to CTP though significantly improves its diagnostic accuracy for short-term mortality; however, it remains lower than MELD alone.

De novo combination therapy with lamivudine and adefovir dipivoxil in chronic hepatitis B patients

AIM: To investigate the appropriate time for combination therapy in HBeAg positive chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients with decompensated cirrhosis.

METHODS: Thirty HBeAg positive CHB patients with decompensated cirrhosis were enrolled in the study. All of the patients were given 48 wk combination therapy with lamivudine (LAM) and adefovir dipivoxil (ADV). Briefly, 10 patients were given the de novo combination therapy with LAM and ADV, whereas the other 20 patients received ADV in addition to LAM after hepatitis B virus (HBV) genetic mutation.

RESULTS: Serum alanine aminotransferase and total bilirubin were both improved in the two groups at 4, 12, 24 and 48 wk after treatment. Serum albumin was also improved at 24 and 48 wk after combination therapy in both groups. The serum HBV DNA level was still detectable in every patient in the two groups at 4 and 12 wk after combination treatment. However, in the de novo combination group, serum HBV DNA levels in 4 (40%) and 9 (90%) patients was decreased to below 1×10³ copies/mL at 24 and 48 wk after the combination treatment, respectively. In parallel, serum HBV DNA levels in 2 (20%) and 8 (40%) patients in the add-on combination group became undetectable at 24 and 48 wk after combination treatment, respectively. Furthermore, 6 (60%) patients in the de novo combination group achieved HBeAg seroconversion after 48 wk treatment, whereas only 4 (20%) patients in the add-on combination group achieved seroconversion. Child-Pugh score of patients in the de novo combination group was better than that of patients in the add-on combination group after 48 wk treatment. Moreover, patients in the de novo combination group had a significantly decreased serum creatinine level and elevated red blood cell counts.

CONCLUSION: De novo combination therapy with LAM and ADV was better than add-on combination therapy in terms of Child-Pugh score, virus inhibition and renal function.

Risk factors for long-term mortality in a large cohort of patients wait-listed for liver transplantation in Brazil

Liver donor shortage and long waiting times are observed in many liver transplant programs worldwide. The aim of this study was to evaluate the wait list in a developing country, before and after the introduction of the MELD scoring system. In addition, the MELD score ability to predict mortality in this setting was assessed. A single-center retrospective study of patients wait-listed for liver transplantation between 1997 and 2010 was undertaken. There were 1339 and 762 patients on the list in pre-MELD and MELD era, respectively. A competitive risk analysis was performed to assess age, gender, disease diagnosis, serum sodium, MELD, Child-Pugh, ABO type, and body mass index. Also, MELD score predictive ability at 3, 6, 12, and 24 months after list enrollment was evaluated. The overall mortality rates on waiting list were 31.0% and 28.1% (P = 0.16), and the median waiting times were 412 and 952 days (P < 0.001), in pre and MELD eras, respectively. The competitive risk analysis yielded the following significant P values for both eras: HCC (0.03 and <0.001), MELD (<0.001 and 0.002), sodium level (0.002 and <0.001), and Child-Pugh (0.02 and <0.001). The MELD mortality predictions at 3, 6, 12, and 24 months were similar. In conclusion, in a liver transplant program with long waiting times, the MELD system introduction did not improve mortality rate. In either pre and MELD eras, HCC diagnosis, serum sodium, Child-Pugh, and MELD were significant predictors of prognosis. Short- and long-term MELD based mortality predictions were similarly accurate. Strategies for increasing the liver donor pool should be implemented to improve mortality.

Pitfalls in assessing renal function in patients with cirrhosis--potential inequity for access to treatment of hepatorenal failure and liver transplantation

Serum creatinine is universally used to assess renal function in clinical practice. Creatinine and changes in serum creatinine are used to define acute kidney injury and hepatorenal syndrome (HRS) in patients with progressive liver disease. In addition, creatinine is a key variable in the calculation used to determine priority for liver transplantation in many countries. As there is no universal standardized creatinine assay, there is variation in creatinine determinations between laboratory assays, compounded by assay interference due to chromogens, including bilirubin. This leads to patients with the same actual renal function potentially being offered different treatment options, in terms of access to therapy for HRS and priority waiting time for liver transplantation. Alternative methods for assessing renal function either also tend to overestimate renal function or are too time consuming and expensive to provide practical alternatives for standard clinical practice. Standardization of creatinine assays with readily available reference standards would help minimize interlaboratory variation; of the current creatinine assays, enzymatic creatinine appears more accurate, but even this is inaccurate at high bilirubin concentrations. Further work is required to determine whether interpatient variation can be reduced by correcting creatinine and cystatin measurements for muscle mass.

Prioritization for liver transplantation

There are three possible policies for prioritization for liver transplantation: medical urgency, utility and transplant benefit. The first is based on the severity of cirrhosis, using Child-Turcotte-Pugh score and, more recently, the Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) score, or variants of MELD, for allocation. Although prospectively developed and validated, the MELD score has several limitations, including interlaboratory variations for measurement of serum creatinine and international normalized ratio of prothrombin time, and a systematic adverse female gender bias. Adjustments to the original MELD equation and new scoring systems have been proposed to overcome these limitations; incorporation of serum sodium improves its predictive accuracy. The MELD score poorly predicts outcomes after liver transplantation due to the absence of donor factors incorporated into the scoring system. Several utility models are based on donor and recipient characteristics. Combined poor recipient and donor characteristics lead to very poor outcomes, which in a utility system would be considered unacceptable. Finally, transplant benefit models rank patients according to the net survival benefit that they would derive from transplantation. However, complex statistical models are required, and unmeasured characteristics may unduly affect the models. Well-designed prospective studies and simulation models are necessary to establish the optimal allocation system in liver transplantation.

Do chronic liver disease scoring systems predict outcomes in trauma patients with liver disease? A comparison of MELD and CTP

BACKGROUND

Although the Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) score is an established outcome prediction tool for patients with liver disease, the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score has recently supplanted CTP for patients awaiting transplantation. Currently, data regarding the use of CTP in trauma is limited, whereas MELD remains unstudied. We compared MELD and CTP to determine which scoring system is a better clinical outcome predictor after trauma.

METHODS

A review of trauma admissions during 2003-2008 revealed 68 patients with chronic liver disease. Single and multiple variable analyses determined predictors of hepatic complications and survival. MELD and CTP were compared using odds ratios and area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) analyses. A p value ≤0.05 was significant.

RESULTS

The mean MELD and CTP scores of the population were 13.1 ± 6.0 and 8.3 ± 1.8, respectively (mean ± SD). Overall, 73.5% had one or more complications and 29.4% died. When survivors were compared with nonsurvivors, no difference in mean MELD scores was found, although mean CTP score (survivors, 7.7 ± 1.5; nonsurvivors, 9.4 ± 1.9; p = 0.001) and class ("C" survivors, 12.1%; "C" nonsurvivors, 56.3%; p = 0.002) were different, with survival relating to liver disease severity. Odds ratios and AUC determined that MELD was not predictive of hepatic complications or hospital survival (p > 0.05), although both CTP score and class were predictive (p < 0.05; AUC > 0.70).

CONCLUSION

Trauma patients suffering from cirrhosis can be expected to have poorer than predicted outcomes using traditional trauma scoring systems, regardless of injury severity. Scoring systems for chronic liver disease offer a more effective alternative. We compared two scoring systems, MELD and CTP, and determined that CTP was the better predictor of hepatic complications and survival in our study population.

Model for end-stage liver disease versus the Child-Pugh score in predicting the post-transplant 3-month and 1-year mortality in a cohort of Chinese recipients

PURPOSE

This study evaluated the performance of the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) in predicting post-transplant survival in a cohort of Chinese patients, and compared its predictive ability with that of the Child-Pugh score.

METHODS

The study enrolled 117 adult Chinese patients undergoing liver transplantation for benign end-stage liver diseases from January 1998 to January 2007 to evaluate the baseline characteristics and outcomes.

RESULTS

In a median follow-up duration of 90 weeks (range 0.2-373 weeks), 30 patients died. The 3-month and 1-year mortality rates of recipients in group 1 (MELD score <28) were 1.1% and 5.6%, in group 2 (MELD score 28-38) 18.8% and 50.0%, and in group 3 (MELD score >38) 91.7% and 91.7%, respectively. A statistical difference was observed in the mortality rates between the three groups (P < 0.001). At 3 months, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the MELD (0.950) was significantly higher than that of the Child-Pugh score (0.810; P < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

Both the MELD and Child-Pugh score are valid models to predict the short-term or medium-term outcome of Chinese recipients undergoing liver transplantation for benign end-stage liver diseases. The MELD is superior to the Child-Pugh score in predicting the 3-month mortality post-transplantation.

Application of a biochemical and clinical model to predict individual survival in patients with end-stage liver disease

AIM: To investigate the capability of a biochemical and clinical model, BioCliM, in predicting the survival of cirrhotic patients.

METHODS: We prospectively evaluated the survival of 172 cirrhotic patients. The model was constructed using clinical (ascites, encephalopathy and variceal bleeding) and biochemical (serum creatinine and serum total bilirubin) variables that were selected from a Cox proportional hazards model. It was applied to estimate 12-, 52- and 104-wk survival. The model’s calibration using the Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic was computed at 104 wk in a validation dataset. Finally, the model’s validity was tested among an independent set of 85 patients who were stratified into 2 risk groups (low risk ≤ 8 and high risk > 8).

RESULTS: In the validation cohort, all measures of fit, discrimination and calibration were improved when the biochemical and clinical model was used. The proposed model had better predictive values (c-statistic: 0.90, 0.91, 0.91) than the Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) and Child-Pugh (CP) scores for 12-, 52- and 104-wk mortality, respectively. In addition, the Hosmer-Lemeshow (H-L) statistic revealed that the biochemical and clinical model (H-L, 4.69) is better calibrated than MELD (H-L, 17.06) and CP (H-L, 14.23). There were no significant differences between the observed and expected survival curves in the stratified risk groups (low risk, P = 0.61; high risk, P = 0.77).

CONCLUSION: Our data suggest that the proposed model is able to accurately predict survival in cirrhotic patients.

Use of the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score to predict 1-year survival of Japanese patients with cirrhosis and to determine who will benefit from living donor liver transplantation

BACKGROUND

Consideration of the prognosis of patients with liver cirrhosis is important when determining the appropriate timing of liver transplantation. Especially in Japan, where 99% of liver transplants are from living donors, timing is very important not only for the patient but also for the family, who need time to consider the various factors involved in living donations.

METHODS

To clarify the applicability of the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score in Japanese patients with cirrhosis, changes in the MELD score over 24 months were reviewed in 79 patients with cirrhosis who subsequently died of liver failure (n=33) or who survived 24 months (n=46). All patients had Child class B or C cirrhosis at the start of follow-up. We also compared their survival with that of 30 patients treated by living donor liver transplantation (LDLT) in our institute to determine the proper timing of transplantation in patients with cirrhosis.

RESULTS

Significant stratification of survival curves was observed for MELD scores of <12, 12-15, 15-18, and >18 (P=0.0018). A significant survival benefit of LDLT was observed in patients with MELD score >or=15 (P=0.0181), and significantly more risk with transplantation was observed in those with MELD score <15 compared with that of patients in whom the disease followed its natural course (P=0.0168).

CONCLUSIONS

MELD score is useful for predicting 1-year survival in Japanese patients with cirrhosis. MELD scores of 15 had discriminatory value for indicating a survival benefit to be gained by liver transplantation and thus can be used to help patients and their families by identifying patients who would benefit from LDLT.

Child-Pugh-Turcott versus Meld score for predicting survival in a retrospective cohort of black African cirrhotic patients

AIM: To compare the performance of the Child-Pugh-Turcott (CPT) score to that of the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score in predicting survival of a retrospective cohort of 172 Black African patients with cirrhosis on a short and mid-term basis.

METHODS: Univariate and multivariate (Cox model) analyses were used to identify factors related to mortality. Relationship between the two scores was appreciated by calculating the correlation coefficient. The Kaplan Meier method and the log rank test were used to elaborate and compare survival respectively. The Areas Under the Curves were used to compare the performance between scores at 3, 6 and 12 mo.

RESULTS: The study population comprised 172 patients, of which 68.9% were male. The mean age of the patient was 47.5 ± 13 years. Hepatitis B virus infection was the cause of cirrhosis in 70% of the cases. The overall mortality was 31.4% over 11 years of follow up. Independent factors significantly associated with mortality were: CPT score (HR = 3.3, 95% CI [1.7-6.2]) (P < 0.001) (stage C vs stage A-B); Serum creatine (HR = 2.5, 95% CI [1.4-4.3]) (P = 0.001) (Serum creatine > 1.5 mg/dL versus serum creatine < 1.5 mg/dL); MELD score (HR = 2.9, 95% CI [1.63-5.21]) (P < 0.001) (MELD > 21 vs MELD < 21). The area under the curves (AUC) that predict survival was 0.72 and 0.75 at 3 mo (P = 0.68), 0.64 and 0.62 at 6 mo (P = 0.67), 0.69 and 0.64 at 12 mo (P = 0.38) respectively for the CPT score and the MELD score.

CONCLUSION: The CPT score displays the same prognostic significance as does the MELD score in black African patients with cirrhosis. Moreover, its handling appears less cumbersome in clinical practice as compared to the latter.

UDP-glucuronosyltransferase 1A7 polymorphisms are associated with liver cirrhosis

Variations in the UDP-glucuronosyltransferase (UGT) 1A7 gene have been found to be related to the development of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Since the pathogenesis of liver cirrhosis is not dissimilar to that of HCC, we hypothesized that UGT1A7 genetic polymorphisms may be associated with liver cirrhosis. PCR-restriction fragment length polymorphism was utilized to determine UGT for 1A7 genotypes for the 159 patients with liver cirrhosis and 263 gender/age matched controls. Simple logistic regression analysis revealed that significant risk factors for liver cirrhosis were (1) hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection, (2) hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection, (3) HBV infection plus HCV infection and (4) low-activity UGT1A7 genotypes. The results of further multivariate logistic regression confirmed these associations. Interaction of low-activity UGT1A7 genotypes and HBV (or HCV) infection produced an additive effect upon the risk for the development of liver cirrhosis [observed odds ratio (OR) (54.59) greater than the expected OR (18.05)]. UGT1A7 low/low genotype was also related to advanced liver cirrhosis (Child-Pugh classes C and/or B) (OR=7.50, P=0.009). This study demonstrates the novel findings that carriage of low-activity UGT1A7 genotypes represents a risk factor for the development and functional severity of liver cirrhosis.

Performance of the new MELD-Na score in predicting 3-month and 1-year mortality in Chinese patients with chronic hepatitis B

The new Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD)-Na score has been validated in a population predominantly affected by chronic hepatitis C and alcoholic liver disease. We aimed to validate the score in Chinese patients with chronic hepatitis B-related complications admitted to the hospital from 1996 to 2003. MELD and the new MELD-Na scores (MELD-Na = MELD + 1.59 [135 - Na] with maximum and minimum Na of 135 and 120 mmol/L, respectively) on initial admissions were calculated. Cox proportional hazard model was used to assess factors associated with mortality. The area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC) was used to compare the predictive abilities of MELD and MELD-Na scores for 3-month and 1-yr mortalities. Patients with hepatocellular carcinoma were excluded. A total of 2,073 patients with liver disease were admitted during the study period and 363 patients had chronic hepatitis B-related complications other than hepatocellular carcinoma. At a median follow-up of 106 weeks, 134 patients died and 14 received liver transplantation. Patients with MELD-Na scores 11-20, 21-30, and >30 had mortality increased by 2.0-fold, 4.7-fold, and 7.6-fold, respectively, compared to patients with scores < or =10. At 3 months and 1 yr, the AUC of the MELD-Na score (0.75 and 0.79, respectively) was superior to those of the MELD score (0.72 and 0.75, respectively) (P = 0.004) in predicting mortality. In conclusion, the new MELD-Na score is a valid model to predict mortality in patients with complications of chronic hepatitis B.

Increased age, male gender, and cirrhosis, but not steatosis or a positive viral serology, negatively impact the life expectancy of patients who undergo liver biopsy

Most survival studies of chronic liver disease avoid including more than one condition, often present in patients with liver disease; survival analysis of patients with liver disease in general was undertaken. Over a 9-year period, the survival experience of 365 patients who underwent liver biopsy, with a median follow-up of 3 years, was assessed. Log rank tests and Cox regression were used to evaluate risk factors. The Flemington-Harrington G(rho) family of tests compared the number of deaths expected in the U.S. population in general, adjusted for age, sex, and year of biopsy, to the observed number of deaths in the patients with cirrhosis and to the observed number of deaths in patients without cirrhosis. Twenty-two (6%) patients died. Cirrhosis (HR = 2.9; 95% c.i.: 1.2-6.7), male sex (HR = 2.7; 95% c.i.: 1.1-6.6), and an additional 20 years of age at biopsy (HR = 2.9; 95% c.i:. 1.4-6.2) each negatively impacted survival. Patients with cirrhosis experienced 4.58 times the number of expected deaths (p < 0.00001). Patients without cirrhosis experienced 1.66 times the number of expected deaths (p = 0.15). Steatosis and a positive viral serology did not increase the risk of death. Male gender, increased age, and cirrhosis increased the risk of death; increased steatosis and positive viral serologic studies did not.

American College of Gastroenterology guideline on the management of Helicobacter pylori infection

Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori) remains a prevalent, worldwide, chronic infection. Though the prevalence of this infection appears to be decreasing in many parts of the world, H. pylori remains an important factor linked to the development of peptic ulcer disease, gastric malignanc and dyspeptic symptoms. Whether to test for H. pylori in patients with functional dyspepsia, gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD), patients taking nonsteroidal antiinflammatory drugs, with iron deficiency anemia, or who are at greater risk of developing gastric cancer remains controversial. H. pylori can be diagnosed by endoscopic or nonendoscopic methods. A variety of factors including the need for endoscopy, pretest probability of infection, local availability, and an understanding of the performance characteristics and cost of the individual tests influences choice of evaluation in a given patient. Testing to prove eradication should be performed in patients who receive treatment of H. pylori for peptic ulcer disease, individuals with persistent dyspeptic symptoms despite the test-and-treat strategy, those with H. pylori-associated MALT lymphoma, and individuals who have undergone resection of early gastric cancer. Recent studies suggest that eradication rates achieved by first-line treatment with a proton pump inhibitor (PPI), clarithromycin, and amoxicillin have decreased to 70-85%, in part due to increasing clarithromycin resistance. Eradication rates may also be lower with 7 versus 14-day regimens. Bismuth-containing quadruple regimens for 7-14 days are another first-line treatment option. Sequential therapy for 10 days has shown promise in Europe but requires validation in North America. The most commonly used salvage regimen in patients with persistent H. pylori is bismuth quadruple therapy. Recent data suggest that a PPI, levofloxacin, and amoxicillin for 10 days is more effective and better tolerated than bismuth quadruple therapy for persistent H. pylori infection, though this needs to be validated in the United States.

Prognosis analysis of patients with decompensated liver cirrhosis using the model of end-stage liver disease

AIM: To compare the capability of the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) and Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) in predicting the prognosis of patients with decompensated liver cirrhosis (DLC) using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve.

METHODS: The data of 171 DLC patients were analyzed with a cohort method. The patients were graded with MELD formula into 4 (MELD ≤ 9, 10 ≤ MELD ≤ 19, 20 ≤ MELD ≤ 29, MELD ≥ 30) and 3 (A, B and C) groups, respectively. The death rate was observed within 1 mo and 3 mo in different groups. The predictive accuracy of the two systems was evaluated by ROC curve.

RESULTS: The mortality rates of patients with MELD ≤ 9, 10 ≤ MELD ≤ 19, 20 ≤ MELD ≤ 29 and MELD ≥ 30 were 10.6%, 23.9%, 68.0% and 75.0% within 1 mo respectively, and 10.6%, 28.4%, 80.0% and 84.4% within 3 mo respectively. While the mortality rates of patients with Child-Pugh A, B and C were 9.7%, 21.1% and 44.9% within 1 mo respectively, and 9.7%, 23.9% and 52.2% within 3 mo respectively. When MELD was used to predict the mortality within 1 and 3 mo, the values of area under the curve (AUC) were 0.832 and 0.844, respectively, higher than those as CTP was used (0.768 and 0.772).

CONCLUSION: Both MELD and Child-Pugh scores can predict the short-term prognosis of DLC patients, but the predictive capability of MELD system is better than that of CTP systems.

Modeling Perioperative Risk: Can Numbers Speak Louder Than Words?

Perioperative care is one of the most complex segments of medicine, because it imposes unique and unprecedented stress on the patient and requires the participation of multiple medical specialists. For this reason, the concept of risk management is ideally suited for application in the perioperative period. The authors believe that risk stratification systems applied to perioperative management should address the three dimensions of patient condition, surgical risk and invasiveness, and anesthetic complexity. They have proposed a system that integrates these factors to document and communicate the relevant elements affecting the "shape" of preoperative patients. Admittedly far short of the ideal formula, we hope this nonetheless prompts efforts to establish more uniform means of assessment and communication and provides a foundation for this endeavor. The old adage can be modified: "if your patient rates more than two ASPIRIN, call me before the morning (of surgery)."

Nutritional status and prognosis in cirrhotic patients

BACKGROUND AND AIM

The potential prognostic value for survival of nutritional status in cirrhotics after adjusting Child-Pugh classification and Model for End-Stage Liver Disease has not been evaluated.

METHODS

We used Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional hazards regression models to identify factors associated with mortality in a cohort of 222 cirrhotics [M/F:145/77 median age 52 (18-68) years] with prospectively collected nutritional parameters as well as modified subjective global nutritional assessment, Royal Free Hospital-Subjective Global Assessment index. Follow-up was censored at the time of transplantation. Other variables were ones in Child-Pugh and Model for End-Stage Liver Disease scores, age, aetiology of cirrhosis and renal function.

RESULTS

Pretransplant mortality (Kaplan-Meier) was 21% by 2 years (135 patients were transplanted). Among the nutritional parameters, only Royal Free Hospital-Subjective Global Assessment remained significantly associated with mortality in multivariable models (P = 0.0006). The final model included the following variables: urea (P = 0.0001), Royal Free Hospital-Subjective Global Assessment (P = 0.003), age (P = 0.0001), Child-Pugh grade (P = 0.009) and prothrombin time (P = 0.003). The results were similar when the Child-Pugh grade was replaced by the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score in the model, and whether a competing risks model was used.

CONCLUSIONS

Nutritional indices add significantly to both Child-Pugh grade and Model for End-Stage Liver Disease scores when assessing the patient prognosis.

Liver transplantation organ allocation between Child and MELD

Liver transplantation (LT) has been established as the most effective therapy for acute and chronic liver diseases over the last few decades due to its excellent long-term results. At the beginning of the LT era, donor organs were allocated based on waiting time. However, as the number of LT candidates consistently increased, a specific allocation system became necessary to prioritize the large number of patients waiting for a limited pool of organs. The LT candidates were categorized into different urgency levels based on their hospital status, degree of liver disease as measured by the Child-Turcotte-Pugh score, and accompanying complications of liver disease, such as ascites, variceal bleeding or hepatocellular carcinoma. The majority of European countries, including Austria, still rely on this organ allocation system. In the United States, however, a new allocation system based on the risk of death without transplantation, assessed by the Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD), was initiated in February 2002. Recent reports have shown that the introduction of the MELD system led to a reduction in waiting list mortality, but also that the MELD score has several limitations that call for further refinements. In the transplant community there are reasonable doubts that MELD is actually superior to the Child-Turcotte Pugh score. Therefore, the optimal liver organ allocation system is yet to be defined.