Prevalence of colorectal neoplasms in young, average risk individuals: A turning tide between East and West

Modeling the Natural History and Screening Effects of Colorectal Cancer Using Both Adenoma and Serrated Neoplasia Pathways: The Development, Calibration, and Validation of a Discrete Event Simulation Model

Background. Existing colorectal cancer (CRC) screening models mostly focus on the adenoma pathway of CRC development, overlooking the serrated neoplasia pathway, which might result in overly optimistic screening predictions. In addition, Bayesian inference methods have not been widely used for model calibration. We aimed to develop a CRC screening model accounting for both pathways, calibrate it with approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) methods, and validate it with large CRC screening trials. Methods. A discrete event simulation (DES) of the CRC natural history (DECAS) was constructed using the adenoma and serrated pathways in R software. The model simulates CRC-related events in a specific birth cohort through various natural history states. Calibration took advantage of 74 prevalence data points from the German screening colonoscopy program of 5.2 million average-risk participants using an ABC method. CRC incidence outputs from DECAS were validated with the German national cancer registry data; screening effects were validated using 17-y data from the UK Flexible Sigmoidoscopy Screening sigmoidoscopy trial and a German screening colonoscopy cohort study. Results. The Bayesian calibration rendered 1,000 sets of posterior parameter samples. With the calibrated parameters, the observed age- and sex-specific CRC prevalences from the German registries were within the 95% DECAS-predicted intervals. Regarding screening effects, DECAS predicted a 41% (95% intervals 30%-51%) and 62% (95% intervals 55%-68%) reduction in 17-y cumulative CRC mortality for a single screening sigmoidoscopy and colonoscopy, respectively, falling within 95% confidence intervals reported in the 2 clinical studies used for validation. Conclusions. We presented DECAS, the first Bayesian-calibrated DES model for CRC natural history and screening, accounting for 2 CRC tumorigenesis pathways. The validated model can serve as a valid tool to evaluate the (cost-)effectiveness of CRC screening strategies.

Highlights

This article presents a new discrete event simulation model, DECAS, which models both adenoma-carcinoma and serrated neoplasia pathways for colorectal cancer (CRC) development and CRC screening effects.DECAS is calibrated based on a Bayesian inference method using the data from German screening colonoscopy program, which consists of more than 5 million first-time average-risk participants aged 55 years and older in 2003 to 2014.DECAS is flexible for evaluating various CRC screening strategies and can differentiate screening effects in different parts of the colon.DECAS is validated with large screening sigmoidoscopy and colonoscopy clinical study data and can be further used to evaluate the (cost-)effectiveness of German colorectal cancer screening strategies.

Cryptosporidium and colorectal cancer: a review of epidemiology and possible association

Cryptosporidiosis is an important protozoan disease with serious public health implications. The contribution of Cryptosporidium to colorectal cancer is still vaguely studied, but little evidence from experimental and epidemiological studies has suggested a possible association. This review discusses the epidemiology of cryptosporidiosis and colorectal cancer and attempts to unravel the possible link between the two diseases using epidemiological, pathological, molecular, and immunological evidence. The review stressed the need to undertake more studies in this relatively neglected field.

Updates on Age to Start and Stop Colorectal Cancer Screening: Recommendations From the U.S. Multi-Society Task Force on Colorectal Cancer

This document is a focused update to the 2017 colorectal cancer (CRC) screening recommendations from the U.S. Multi-Society Task Force on Colorectal Cancer, which represents the American College of Gastroenterology, the American Gastroenterological Association, and the American Society for Gastrointestinal Endoscopy. This update is restricted to addressing the age to start and stop CRC screening in average-risk individuals and the recommended screening modalities. Although there is no literature demonstrating that CRC screening in individuals under age 50 improves health outcomes such as CRC incidence or CRC-related mortality, sufficient data support the U.S. Multi-Society Task Force to suggest average-risk CRC screening begin at age 45. This recommendation is based on the increasing disease burden among individuals under age 50, emerging data that the prevalence of advanced colorectal neoplasia in individuals ages 45 to 49 approaches rates in individuals 50 to 59, and modeling studies that demonstrate the benefits of screening outweigh the potential harms and costs. For individuals ages 76 to 85, the decision to start or continue screening should be individualized and based on prior screening history, life expectancy, CRC risk, and personal preference. Screening is not recommended after age 85.

Updates on Age to Start and Stop Colorectal Cancer Screening: Recommendations From the U.S. Multi-Society Task Force on Colorectal Cancer

This document is a focused update to the 2017 colorectal cancer (CRC) screening recommendations from the U.S. Multi-Society Task Force on Colorectal Cancer, which represents the American College of Gastroenterology, the American Gastroenterological Association, and the American Society for Gastrointestinal Endoscopy. This update is restricted to addressing the age to start and stop CRC screening in average-risk individuals and the recommended screening modalities. Although there is no literature demonstrating that CRC screening in individuals under age 50 improves health outcomes such as CRC incidence or CRC-related mortality, sufficient data support the U.S. Multi-Society Task Force to suggest average-risk CRC screening begin at age 45. This recommendation is based on the increasing disease burden among individuals under age 50, emerging data that the prevalence of advanced colorectal neoplasia in individuals ages 45 to 49 approaches rates in individuals 50 to 59, and modeling studies that demonstrate the benefits of screening outweigh the potential harms and costs. For individuals ages 76 to 85, the decision to start or continue screening should be individualized and based on prior screening history, life expectancy, CRC risk, and personal preference. Screening is not recommended after age 85.

Updates on age to start and stop colorectal cancer screening: recommendations from the U.S. Multi-Society Task Force on Colorectal Cancer

This document is a focused update to the 2017 colorectal cancer (CRC) screening recommendations from the U.S. Multi-Society Task Force on Colorectal Cancer, which represents the American College of Gastroenterology, the American Gastroenterological Association, and the American Society for Gastrointestinal Endoscopy. This update is restricted to addressing the age to start and stop CRC screening in average-risk individuals and the recommended screening modalities. Although there is no literature demonstrating that CRC screening in individuals under age 50 improves health outcomes such as CRC incidence or CRC-related mortality, sufficient data support the U.S. Multi-Society Task Force to suggest average-risk CRC screening begin at age 45. This recommendation is based on the increasing disease burden among individuals under age 50, emerging data that the prevalence of advanced colorectal neoplasia in individuals ages 45 to 49 approaches rates in individuals 50 to 59, and modeling studies that demonstrate the benefits of screening outweigh the potential harms and costs. For individuals ages 76 to 85, the decision to start or continue screening should be individualized and based on prior screening history, life expectancy, CRC risk, and personal preference. Screening is not recommended after age 85.

Early-Age Onset Colorectal Neoplasia in Average-Risk Individuals Undergoing Screening Colonoscopy: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Incidence and mortality associated with early-age onset colorectal cancer (EAO-CRC) is increasing, prompting professional society recommendations to lower the screening age in average-risk individuals. The yield of screening individuals younger than 50 years is not known.

METHODS

A systematic review of 3 databases from inception through July 2020 was performed in all languages that reported colonoscopy findings in average-risk individuals younger than 50 years. The primary outcomes were EAO colorectal neoplasia (CRN) and advanced colorectal neoplasia (aCRN) prevalence. Subgroup analyses were performed based on sex, geographic location, time period, and age, including comparison with those aged 50-59 years. Generalized linear mixed model with random intercept logistic regression and fixed subgroup effects were performed.

RESULTS

Of 10,123 unique articles, 17 studies published between 2002 and 2020, including 51,811 average-risk individuals from 4 continents, were included. The pooled rate of EAO-CRN was 13.7% (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.112%-0.168%) and EAO-aCRN was 2.2% (95% CI, 0.016%-0.031%). Prevalence of CRC was 0.05% (95% CI, 0.00029%-0.0008%). Rates of EAO-CRN were higher in men compared with women (relative risk, 1.71%; 95% CI, 1.49%-1.98%), and highest in the United States (15.6%; 95% CI, 12.2%-19.7%) compared with Europe (14.9%; 95% CI, 6.9%-29.3%), East Asia (13.4%; 95% CI, 10.3%-17.2%), and the Middle East (9.8%; 95% CI, 7.8%-12.2%) (P = .04) The rate of EAO-CRN in age groups 45-49 years and 50-59 years was 17.8% (95% CI, 14.5%-21.6%) and 24.8% (95% CI, 19.5%-30.8%), respectively (P = .04). The rate of EAO-aCRN in age group 45-49 years was 3.6% (95% CI, 1.9%-6.7%) and 4.2% (95% CI, 3.2%-5.7%), respectively (P = .69).

CONCLUSIONS

The rate of aCRN in individuals aged 45-49 years was similar to the rate observed in individual aged 50-59 years, suggesting that expanding screening to this population could yield a similar impact on colorectal cancer risk reduction.

The location of premalignant colorectal polyps under age 50: a further rationale for screening sigmoidoscopy

PURPOSE

The incidence of colorectal cancer (CRC) among young adults has been dramatically rising, with guidelines for screening recently adjusted to start at age 45. However, knowledge of the precursor lesions is limited. We recently reported that 83% of CRC diagnosed under age 50 are left sided. Our aim was to analyze the location and histology of benign colorectal lesions found in a cohort of patients younger than 50, documenting the presence of advanced histology.

METHODS

We used the database in the Department of Pathology to retrospectively review the location and histology of all benign colorectal neoplasms in patients under age 50 submitted to pathology examination during 2006-2016.

RESULTS

A total of 8364 lesions were examined from 4773 patients, and 3534 (65.5%) of the patients had only one polyp and the rest had multiple. Mean age was 41.9 years (range 16-49) while 3843 (72.8%) of the patients were between the ages of 40 and 49. In total, 4570/8364 lesions (54.6%) were distal to the splenic flexure. The most common pathology was tubular adenoma (63.7%), then hyperplastic polyps (16.6%), sessile serrated lesions (SSLs) (13.1%), and tubulovillous adenomas (6.3%). Tubulovillous adenomas, villous lesions, advanced adenomas, and adenomas with high-grade dysplasia were all predominantly left sided (left colon and rectum = 77.6%, 85%, 78.3%, and 87.6% respectively). Of the SSLs, 71.5% were in the right colon while 16.6% of hyperplastic lesions were right sided.

CONCLUSIONS

High-risk advanced adenomas are predominantly left sided. This focuses attention on the rectum and left colon where carcinogenesis is strong in the young.

Global Prevalence of Colorectal Neoplasia: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Most colorectal cancers (CRC) arise from colorectal adenomas, yet there is not enough information on global prevalence to inform health care policy. We examined the prevalence of any type of adenomas, advanced adenomas (AADs), and CRC according to age, sex, ethnicity, geographic regions, and anatomic location (proximal vs distal).

METHODS

MEDLINE and Embase were searched from their inception through May 1, 2018, to identify population-based, observational studies that reported the prevalence of colorectal neoplasia. Studies on participants 15 years or older, with a sample size of 500 persons or more, were included. Metaprop (College Station, TX) was used to model within-study variability by binomial distribution and Freeman-Tukey Double Arcsine Transformation to stabilize the variances. The prevalence figures were presented by proportions and their 95% CIs using random-effects models.

RESULTS

Our meta-analysis included 70 studies involving 637,414 individuals. The overall prevalence rates of adenoma (23.9%; 95% CI, 22.2%-25.8%), AAD (4.6%; 95% CI, 3.8%-5.5%), and CRC (0.4%, 95% CI, 0.3%-0.5%) were calculated. Subgroup analysis indicated that prevalence values (adenomas, AADs, and CRCs) were higher among men (29.7%, 6.5%, and 0.8%, respectively) than women (19.3%, 3.8% and 0.4%, respectively), among older adults (25.9%, 5.2%, and 0.6%, respectively) than younger adults (14.6%, 1.6%, and 0.1%, respectively), among Caucasians (23.7%, 6.6%, and 0.5%, respectively) than other ethnicities, in European countries (25.9%, 8.4%, and 0.8%, respectively) than other countries, and among patients with proximal (25.9%, 5.3%, and 0.1%, respectively) vs distal neoplasia.

CONCLUSIONS

In a systematic review and meta-analysis, we found a high prevalence of colorectal neoplasia among some populations. This indicates a need to expand CRC screening programs for these groups. The pooled prevalence estimates can be used as quality indicators for established CRC screening programs.

Alarming endoscopic data in young and older asymptomatic people: Results of an open access, unlimited age colonoscopic screening for colorectal cancer

There is a lack of a national organized screening program for colorectal cancer in Greece, and asymptomatic detection is usually the result of individual decisions. The collection of epidemiologic endoscopic data from a population of interest would therefore provide valuable information for future treatment guidance, especially during periods of economic austerity. The current cross-sectional study included 380 asymptomatic, average risk individuals undergoing screening colonoscopy for the first time, during the period of one year in a tertiary public hospital in Athens. Descriptive and analytic epidemiologic data were analyzed. The prevalence of adenomas and advanced lesions were compared between the younger and older cohort, and a regression model was applied for risk evaluation. The mean age of participants was 63 years, and 53% were male. A significant proportion of patients presented with polyps (51.5%) and 25% of them had lesions in the proximal colon. The prevalence of adenomas and advanced adenomas was 29.5 and 11.8%, respectively. Similar high prevalence rates of lesions were identified in the cohort of individuals <50 years of age and the older cohort (>50 years of age). Regression models identified age, number and size of polyps as the major risk factors for the detection of adenomas. The increase of advanced lesions in the older and younger cohort requires confirmation by larger studies. Overall, the results of the present study indicate the requirement for a well-organized screening colonoscopy program starting from as early as 40 years of age. This program may confer an additional endoscopic burden with socioeconomic consequences in a country with limited health resources.

High Prevalence of Adenomatous Polyps in Alaska Native People Aged 40-49 years

BACKGROUND

Although colorectal cancer occurs earlier in life and at twice the frequency in Alaska Native (AN) people compared with the general population, the colorectal polyp burden in this group has not been quantified. In addition, an appropriate age for initial screening in ANs has not been defined.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A retrospective chart review of 766 AN people who had screening colonoscopy from 2015 to 2016 was performed. The polyp burden in patients aged 40-49 y was compared with that in those aged 50-59 y in both the AN and the general US populations.

RESULTS

In total, 345 adenomas were removed: 121 (35%) from 40- to 49-year-olds and 224 (65%) from 50- to 59-year-olds. Twenty-six percent of AN people aged 40 y to 49 y and 40% of AN people aged 50 to 59 y had at least one adenoma. Low- and high-risk adenomas were significantly less frequent in the younger group (22% versus 29%, P = 0.048; 9.2% versus 15%, P = 0.035; respectively). Advanced adenomas were also less frequent in the younger group, although not statistically significant. Polyp histology, size, location, and morphology did not differ significantly between groups.

CONCLUSIONS

The adenoma and advanced adenoma prevalence in 40- to 49-year-old AN people is high, suggesting colorectal cancer screening should begin at age 40 y in ANs.

A Comparative Study Evaluating the Incidence of Colorectal Neoplasia(s) in Candidates for Bariatric Surgery by Screening Colonoscopy, 40-49 Versus 50-65 Years Old: a Preliminary Study

INTRODUCTION

Obesity and metabolic syndrome (MetS) are associated with colorectal neoplasia (CRN) and carcinoma (CRC). Whether such subjects must undergo screening colonoscopy (SC) earlier, is unknown. Incidences of CRNs in 40-49- versus 50-65-year-old bariatric patients were compared by SC. No prospective data on SC is available in morbidly obese/MetS.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

Surgical weight loss candidates over 39 years of age, asymptomatic, and average-risk for CRC offered SC. Those giving written informed consent were enrolled. Colonoscopies were done by the same surgeon. Smoking/drinking history, fasting blood glucose (FBG), insulin, C-peptide, triglyceride, high density lipoprotein, vitamin D, HbA1c, and insulin resistance parameters were recorded. CRN rate and the distribution of variables in patients 40-49 years of age were compared with 50-65. Student's t and Chi-square tests were used as appropriate. P < 0.05 was regarded as statistically significant.

RESULTS

Among 168 SCs, 47 had CRNs (27.9%). Including carcinoma, 15 had an advanced CRN (aCRN) (8.9% aCRN and 0.6% CRC). CRN rate was 35.6% in ≥ 50 years old whereas 22.1% in 40-49 (p = 0.053). aCRN rates (8.4% in 40-49 versus 9.6% in 50-65) were similar (p = 0.792). Metabolic parameters and smoking-drinking history were equally distributed between the groups except FBG and HbA1c as their mean levels were slightly higher in the 50-65 age group (p < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

Presented results warrant routine SC in the 40-49-year-old morbidly obese and/or MetS patient population with average risk, and in aged > 50, it certainly must be enforced and included in the preoperative check-list if not done before.

An Adjusted Level of Adenoma Detection Rate is Necessary for Adults Below 50 Years Old

BACKGROUND

Although adenoma prevalence is lower in younger people compared with screening-aged adults 50 years old and above, there is no adjustment recommendation for the target adenoma detection rate (ADR) in young people. Herein, we estimated a different target ADR for adults below 50 years old based on screening colonoscopy findings.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Asymptomatic, average-risk adults below 50 years old who underwent screening colonoscopy were enrolled at 12 endoscopy centers in Korea between February 2006 and March 2012. Screening colonoscopies were stratified into low or high ADR groups with ADR levels of 20% and 25%, respectively.

RESULTS

The ADRs from 12 endoscopy centers ranged from 12.1% to 43.8% (median ADR, 24.1%) based on 5272 young adults receiving screening colonoscopies. Using 20% as an ADR level, the risks for metachronous adenoma and advanced adenoma were significantly higher in the low ADR group than the high ADR group (35.4% vs. 25.7%, P<0.001; 8.3% vs. 3.7%, P=0.001, respectively). However, using ADR level of 25%, the risk for metachronous neoplasia was similar in the high and low ADR groups in young adults according to screening colonoscopy. In subgroup analysis, similar findings were found in males, but not in females.

CONCLUSIONS

Optimal target ADR may be different between younger and older populations, and the adoption of a 20% target ADR could be used as a performance indicator for young populations.

Risk of metachronous neoplasia on surveillance colonoscopy in young patients with colorectal neoplasia

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Few prior reports exist that address the appropriate colonoscopy surveillance interval for individuals <50 years old. We compared the risk of metachronous neoplasia between younger (20-49 years) and older (50-54 years) cohorts.

METHODS

This multicenter retrospective cohort study compared the incidence of metachronous neoplasia in younger and older cohorts according to baseline risk stratification. Subjects were eligible if they underwent their first colonoscopy between June 2006 and May 2010 and had at least 1 or more surveillance colonoscopy up to June 2015.

RESULTS

Among a total of 10,477 subjects who underwent baseline colonoscopy, 9722 were eligible after excluding 755 subjects. Of those 9722 subjects, 43% underwent surveillance colonoscopy. In the baseline high-risk adenoma group (n = 840), the 3-year risk of metachronous advanced neoplasia was 10.7% in the younger patients on screening colonoscopy and 8.9% in the older patients (P > .1). In the baseline low-risk adenoma group (n = 1869), the 5-year risk of metachronous advanced neoplasia was 4.9% in the younger patients on screening colonoscopy and 5.1% in the older patients (P > .1). Similarly, in the baseline no neoplasia group (n = 7013), the 5-year risk of metachronous advanced neoplasia was 4.1% in the younger patients on screening colonoscopy and 5.6% in the older patients (P > .1).

CONCLUSIONS

Considering the similar risk of metachronous advanced neoplasia in younger and older individuals, we suggest a 3-year surveillance interval for high-risk adenoma and a 5-year surveillance interval for low-risk adenoma in young individuals without a strong family history.

Risks of colorectal advanced neoplasia in young adults versus those of screening colonoscopy in patients aged 50 to 54 years

BACKGROUND AND AIM

The role of screening or diagnostic colonoscopy to detect advanced neoplasia in young cohorts of age < 50 is unclear. This study compared the risk of colorectal neoplasia in a young age cohort against that in 50-54s screening cohort.

METHODS

A multi-center retrospective study was conducted at 14 university hospitals to compare the detection rates of neoplasia and advanced neoplasia in screening or diagnostic colonoscopy in the young cohort of < 50s against those in screening colonoscopy in the 50-54s cohort.

RESULTS

Among 10 477 eligible subjects, 9765 subjects were enrolled after excluding 712 subjects. Advanced neoplasia detection rates in the young screening cohort was significantly lower than that in the 50-54s screening cohort (5.9% vs 9.3%, P < 0.001). Compared with 50-54s screening cohort, the risk of advanced neoplasia was significantly reduced by 23%, 53%, and 54% in the 45-49s, 40-44s, and 20-39s screening cohorts, respectively. The detection rates of advanced neoplasia in the young diagnostic cohort was 5.0%, which was much lower than 11.8% in 50-54s screening cohort (P < 0.001). Compared with the 50-54s screening cohort, the risk of advanced neoplasia was significantly reduced by 50%, 66%, and 71% in the 45-49s, 40-44s, and 20-39s diagnostic cohorts, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Colonoscopy to detect advanced neoplasia in young adults aged < 50 years should be reconsidered as their risk of advanced neoplasia on screening or diagnostic colonoscopy was much lower than those of 50-54s screening cohort; however, colonoscopy screening may be justified for high-risk 45-49s cohorts.

Higher body mass index is associated with an increased risk of multiplicity in surveillance colonoscopy within 5 years

We aimed to evaluate whether obesity was associated with a certain clinicopathologic characteristics of metachronous CRA. This retrospective longitudinal cohort study included 2,904 subjects who had at least one resected CRA at index colonoscopy and who subsequently underwent one or more surveillance colonoscopies within 5 years. Of the 2,904 subjects, 60.9% (n = 1,769) were normal, 35.8% (n = 1,040) were overweight, and 3.3% (n = 95) were obese. Patients with any metachronous CRA were 53.7% (n = 1,559). In multivariate analyses, higher BMI at index colonoscopy was significantly associated with any metachronous CRA (overweight, OR = 1.07; obese, OR = 1.82; p for trend = 0.049). Regarding the multiplicity, the ORs of ≥ 3, ≥ 4 and ≥ 5 metachronous CRAs significantly increased as index BMI increased (p for trend < 0.001, = 0.007 and = 0.004, respectively). In negative binomial regression regarding the incidence for total number of metachronous CRA, the higher BMI the subject has at the time of index colonoscopy, the more metachronous CRAs the subject will have at the surveillance colonoscopy (p for trend = 0.016). Higher index BMI was significantly associated with the risk of multiple metachronous CRAs on surveillance colonoscopy within 5 years.

Clinicopathologic features and prognostic factors for patients with colorectal cancer who are 75 years and older

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is common and can be considered as a disease of older adults. About one half of the cases were diagnosed in patients over 70 years of age. Decision-making about treatment for these older patients can be complicated by age-related physiological changes, impaired functional status, limited social support, and comorbidities. Many trials excluded patients using an upper limit of 75 years of age. Little is known about prognostic factors in patients who are over this age limit. In this study, we conducted an analysis in the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database to identify specific clinicopathologic features and prognostic factors for these vulnerable cancer patients (N= 293,616). They were predominantly female and had more stage I and II diseases in comparison to younger patients. On average, these patients had lower 5-year cause-specific mortality than younger patients (41.98% vs. 63.14%, P<0.001). Gender, marital status, ethnicity, Tumor-Node-Metastasis stage, grade, histologic subtype, tumor size, status of surgery and radiotherapy were all independent prognostic factors for these elderly CRC patients. In particular, surgery could improve prognosis for all CRC patients with the exception of those who are older than 94 years old and with stage III disease. The identified clinicopathologic features and prognostic factor will help guide treatment decision-making for this oldest old subset of patients with CRC.