The Epidemiological Framework for Biological Invasions (EFBI): an interdisciplinary foundation for the assessment of biosecurity threats

Idiosyncratic invasion trajectories of human bacterial pathogens facing temperature disturbances in soil microbial communities

Current knowledge about effects of disturbance on the fate of invaders in complex microbial ecosystems is still in its infancy. In order to investigate this issue, we compared the fate of Klebsiella pneumoniae (Kp) and Listeria monocytogenes (Lm) in soil microcosms. We then used environmental disturbances (freeze-thaw or heat cycles) to compare the fate of both invaders and manipulate soil microbial diversity. Population dynamics of the two pathogens was assessed over 50 days of invasion while microbial diversity was measured at times 0, 20 and 40 days. The outcome of invasion was strain-dependent and the response of the two invaders to disturbance differed. Resistance to Kp invasion was higher under the conditions where resident microbial diversity was the highest while a significant drop of diversity was linked to a higher persistence. In contrast, Lm faced stronger resistance to invasion in heat-treated microcosms where diversity was the lowest. Our results show that diversity is not a universal proxy of resistance to microbial invasion, indicating the need to properly assess other intrinsic properties of the invader, such as its metabolic repertoire, or the array of interactions between the invader and resident communities.

Priorities for improving predictions of vessel-mediated marine invasions

Nonindigenous marine species are impacting the integrity of marine ecosystems worldwide. The invasion rate is increasing, and vessel traffic, the most significant human-assisted transport pathway for marine organisms, is predicted to double by 2050. The ability to predict the transfer of marine species by international and domestic maritime traffic is needed to develop cost-effective proactive and reactive interventions that minimise introduction, establishment and spread of invasive species. However, despite several decades of research into vessel-mediated species transfers, some important knowledge gaps remain, leading to significant uncertainty in model predictions, often limiting their use in decision making and management planning. In this review, we discuss the sequential ecological process underlying human-assisted biological invasions and adapt it in a marine context. This process includes five successive stages: entrainment, transport, introduction, establishment, and the subsequent spread. We describe the factors that influence an organism's progression through these stages in the context of maritime vessel movements and identify key knowledge gaps that limit our ability to quantify the rate at which organisms successfully pass through these stages. We then highlight research priorities that will address these knowledge gaps and improve our capability to manage biosecurity risks at local, national and international scales. We identified four major data and knowledge gaps: (1) quantitative rates of entrainment of organisms by vessels; (2) the movement patterns of vessel types lacking maritime location devices; (3) quantifying the release (introduction) of organisms as a function of vessel behaviour (e.g. time spent at port); and (4) the influence of a species' life history on establishment success, for a given magnitude of propagule pressure. We discuss these four research priorities and how they can be addressed in collaboration with industry partners and stakeholders to improve our ability to predict and manage vessel-mediated biosecurity risks over the coming decades.

Emerging advances in biosecurity to underpin human, animal, plant, and ecosystem health

One Biosecurity is an interdisciplinary approach to policy and research that builds on the interconnections between human, animal, plant, and ecosystem health to effectively prevent and mitigate the impacts of invasive alien species. To support this approach requires that key cross-sectoral research innovations be identified and prioritized. Following an interdisciplinary horizon scan for emerging research that underpins One Biosecurity, four major interlinked advances were identified: implementation of new surveillance technologies adopting state-of-the-art sensors connected to the Internet of Things, deployable handheld molecular and genomic tracing tools, the incorporation of wellbeing and diverse human values into biosecurity decision-making, and sophisticated socio-environmental models and data capture. The relevance and applicability of these innovations to address threats from pathogens, pests, and weeds in both terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems emphasize the opportunity to build critical mass around interdisciplinary teams at a global scale that can rapidly advance science solutions targeting biosecurity threats.

Quantifying Invasive Pest Dynamics through Inference of a Two-Node Epidemic Network Model

Invasive woodland pests have substantial ecological, economic, and social impacts, harming biodiversity and ecosystem services. Mathematical modelling informed by Bayesian inference can deepen our understanding of the fundamental behaviours of invasive pests and provide predictive tools for forecasting future spread. A key invasive pest of concern in the UK is the oak processionary moth (OPM). OPM was established in the UK in 2006; it is harmful to both oak trees and humans, and its infestation area is continually expanding. Here, we use a computational inference scheme to estimate the parameters for a two-node network epidemic model to describe the temporal dynamics of OPM in two geographically neighbouring parks (Bushy Park and Richmond Park, London). We show the applicability of such a network model to describing invasive pest dynamics and our results suggest that the infestation within Richmond Park has largely driven the infestation within Bushy Park.

Optimal control strategies of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron supported by invasive and dynamic models

BACKGROUND

There is a raising concern of a higher infectious Omicron BA.2 variant and the latest BA.4, BA.5 variant, made it more difficult in the mitigation process against COVID-19 pandemic. Our study aimed to find optimal control strategies by transmission of dynamic model from novel invasion theory.

METHODS

Based on the public data sources from January 31 to May 31, 2022, in four cities (Nanjing, Shanghai, Shenzhen and Suzhou) of China. We segmented the theoretical curves into five phases based on the concept of biological invasion. Then, a spatial autocorrelation analysis was carried out by detecting the clustering of the studied areas. After that, we choose a mathematical model of COVID-19 based on system dynamics methodology to simulate numerous intervention measures scenarios. Finally, we have used publicly available migration data to calculate spillover risk.

RESULTS

Epidemics in Shanghai and Shenzhen has gone through the entire invasion phases, whereas Nanjing and Suzhou were all ended in the establishment phase. The results indicated that Rt value and public health and social measures (PHSM)-index of the epidemics were a negative correlation in all cities, except Shenzhen. The intervention has come into effect in different phases of invasion in all studied cities. Until the May 31, most of the spillover risk in Shanghai remained above the spillover risk threshold (18.81-303.84) and the actual number of the spillovers (0.94-74.98) was also increasing along with the time. Shenzhen reported Omicron cases that was only above the spillover risk threshold (17.92) at the phase of outbreak, consistent with an actual partial spillover. In Nanjing and Suzhou, the actual number of reported cases did not exceed the spillover alert value.

CONCLUSIONS

Biological invasion is positioned to contribute substantively to understanding the drivers and mechanisms of the COVID-19 spread and outbreaks. After evaluating the spillover risk of cities at each invasion phase, we found the dynamic zero-COVID strategy implemented in four cities successfully curb the disease epidemic peak of the Omicron variant, which was highly correlated to the way to perform public health and social measures in the early phases right after the invasion of the virus.

The ecology of COVID-19 and related environmental and sustainability issues

Around the globe, human behavior and ecosystem health have been extensively and sometimes severely affected by the unprecedented COVID-19 pandemic. Most efforts to study these complex and heterogenous effects to date have focused on public health and economics. Some studies have evaluated the pandemic's influences on the environment, but often on a single aspect such as air or water pollution. The related research opportunities are relatively rare, and the approaches are unique in multiple aspects and mostly retrospective. Here, we focus on the diverse research opportunities in disease ecology and ecosystem sustainability related to the (intermittent) lockdowns that drastically reduced human activities. We discuss several key knowledge gaps and questions to address amid the ongoing pandemic. In principle, the common knowledge accumulated from invasion biology could also be effectively applied to COVID-19, and the findings could offer much-needed information for future pandemic prevention and management.

Bio-safety and bio-security: A major global concern for ongoing COVID-19 pandemic

Besides its impacts on governance, economics, human culture, geostrategic partnership and environment, globalization greatly exerted control over science and security policies. Biosecurity is the critical job of efforts, policy and preparation to protect health of human, animal and environmental against any biological threats. With the transition into a global village, the possibility of biosecurity breaches has significantly increased. The COVID-19 pandemic is an example of an infringement on biosecurity that has posed a serious threat to the world. Since the first report on the recognition of COVID-19, a number of governments have taken preventive measures, like; lockdown, screening and early detection of suspected and implementing the required response to protect the loss of life and economy. Unfortunately, some of these measures have only recently been taken in some countries, which have contributed significantly to an increased morbidity and loss of life on a daily basis. In this article, the biological risks affecting human, animal and environmental conditions, biosafety violations and preventive measures have been discussed in order to reduce the outbreak and impacts of a pandemic like COVID-19.

The phytosanitary risks posed by seeds for sowing trade networks

When successful, the operation of local and international networks of crop seed distribution or “seed systems” ensures farmer access to seed and impacts rural livelihoods and food security. Farmers are both consumers and producers in seed systems and benefit from access to global markets. However, phytosanitary measures and seed purity tests are also needed to maintain seed quality and prevent the spread of costly weeds, pests and diseases, in some countries regulatory controls have been in place since the 1800s. Nevertheless, seed contaminants are internationally implicated in between 7% and 37% of the invasive plant species and many of the agricultural pests and diseases. We assess biosecurity risk across international seed trade networks of forage crops using models of contaminant spread that integrate network connectivity and trade volume. To stochastically model hypothetical contaminants through global seed trade networks, realistic dispersal probabilities were estimated from quarantine weed seed detections and incursions from border security interception data in New Zealand. For our test case we use contaminants linked to the global trade of ryegrass and clover seed. Between 2014 and 2018 only four quarantine weed species (222 species and several genera are on the quarantine schedule) warranting risk mitigation were detected at the border. Quarantine weeds were rare considering that average import volumes were over 190 tonnes for ryegrass and clover, but 105 unregulated contaminant species were allowed in. Ryegrass and clover seed imports each led to one post-border weed incursion response over 20 years. Trade reports revealed complex global seed trade networks spanning >134 (ryegrass) and >110 (clover) countries. Simulations showed contaminants could disperse to as many as 50 (clover) or 80 (ryegrass) countries within 10 time-steps. Risk assessed via network models differed 18% (ryegrass) or 48% (clover) of the time compared to risk assessed on trade volumes. We conclude that biosecurity risk is driven by network position, the number of trading connections and trade volume. Risk mitigation measures could involve the use of more comprehensive lists of regulated species, comprehensive inspection protocols, or the addition of field surveillance at farms where seed is planted.

Planetary Biosecurity: Applying Invasion Science to Prevent Biological Contamination from Space Travel

As plans for space exploration and commercial use expand rapidly, biosecurity measures and risk assessments that inform them must adapt. Sophisticated protocols are required to prevent biological contamination of extraterrestrial environments from Earth and vice versa. Such protocols should be informed by research on biological invasions—human-assisted spread of organisms into novel environments—which has revealed, inter alia, that (1) invasion risk is driven by the timing and frequency of introduction events, whose control requires addressing the least secure human activities associated with organismal transport; (2) invasions and their impacts are difficult to predict, because these phenomena are governed by context dependencies involving traits of the organism and the receiving environment; and (3) early detection and rapid response are crucial for prevention but undermined by taxonomic methods that fail to recognize what is “alien” versus what is native. Collaboration among astrobiologists, invasion biologists, and policymakers could greatly enhance planetary biosecurity protocols.

Some reflections on current invasion science and perspectives for an exciting future

Species spreading beyond their native ranges are important study objects in ecology and environmental sciences and research on biological invasions is thriving. Along with an increase in the number of publications, the research field is experiencing an increase in the diversity of methods applied and questions asked. This development has facilitated an upsurge in information on invasions, but it also creates conceptual and practical challenges. To provide more transparency on which kind of research is actually done in the field, the distinction between invasion science, encompassing the full spectrum of studies on biological invasions and the sub-field of invasion biology, studying patterns and mechanisms of species invasions with a focus on biological research questions, can be useful. Although covering a smaller range of topics, invasion biology today still is the driving force in invasion science and we discuss challenges stemming from its embeddedness in the social context. Invasion biology consists of the building blocks ‘theory’, ‘case studies’ and ‘application’, where theory takes the form of conceptual frameworks, major hypotheses and statistical generalisations. Referencing recent work in philosophy of science, we argue that invasion biology, like other biological or ecological disciplines, does not rely on the development of an all-encompassing theory in order to be efficient. We suggest, however, that theory development is nonetheless necessary and propose improvements. Recent advances in data visualisation, machine learning and semantic modelling are providing opportunities for enhancing knowledge management and presentation and we suggest that invasion science should use these to transform its ways of publishing, archiving and visualising research. Along with a stronger focus on studies going beyond purely biological questions, this would facilitate the efficient prevention and management of biological invasions.

Viewing Emerging Human Infectious Epidemics through the Lens of Invasion Biology

Invasion biology examines species originated elsewhere and moved with the help of humans, and those species’ impacts on biodiversity, ecosystem services, and human well-being. In a globalized world, the emergence and spread of many human infectious pathogens are quintessential biological invasion events. Some macroscopic invasive species themselves contribute to the emergence and transmission of human infectious agents. We review conceptual parallels and differences between human epidemics and biological invasions by animals and plants. Fundamental concepts in invasion biology regarding the interplay of propagule pressure, species traits, biotic interactions, eco-evolutionary experience, and ecosystem disturbances can help to explain transitions between stages of epidemic spread. As a result, many forecasting and management tools used to address epidemics could be applied to biological invasions and vice versa. Therefore, we advocate for increasing cross-fertilization between the two disciplines to improve prediction, prevention, treatment, and mitigation of invasive species and infectious disease outbreaks, including pandemics.

One Biosecurity: a unified concept to integrate human, animal, plant, and environmental health

In the wake of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, the world has woken up to the importance of biosecurity and the need to manage international borders. Yet strong sectorial identities exist within biosecurity that are associated with specific international standards, individual economic interests, specific research communities, and unique stakeholder involvement. Despite considerable research addressing human, animal, plant, and environmental health, the science connections between these sectors remain quite limited. One Biosecurity aims to address these limitations at global, national, and local scales. It is an interdisciplinary approach to biosecurity policy and research that builds on the interconnections between human, animal, plant, and environmental health to effectively prevent and mitigate the impacts of invasive alien species. It provides an integrated perspective to address the many biosecurity risks that transcend the traditional boundaries of health, agriculture, and the environment. Individual invasive alien plant and animal species often have multiple impacts across sectors: as hosts of zoonotic parasites, vectors of pathogens, pests of agriculture or forestry, as well as threats to biodiversity and ecosystem function. It is time these risks were addressed in a systematic way. One Biosecurity is essential to address several major sociological and environmental challenges to biosecurity: climate change, increasing urbanisation, agricultural intensification, human global mobility, loss of technical capability as well as public resistance to pesticides and vaccines. One Biosecurity will require the bringing together of taxonomists, population biologists, modellers, economists, chemists, engineers, and social scientists to engage in a new agenda that is shaped by politics, legislation, and public perceptions.

Frameworks used in invasion science: progress and prospects

Our understanding and management of biological invasions relies on our ability to classify and conceptualise the phenomenon. This need has stimulated the development of a plethora of frameworks, ranging in nature from conceptual to applied. However, most of these frameworks have not been widely tested and their general applicability is unknown. In order to critically evaluate frameworks in invasion science, we held a workshop on ‘Frameworks used in Invasion Science’ hosted by the DSI-NRF Centre of Excellence for Invasion Biology in Stellenbosch, South Africa, in November 2019, which led to this special issue. For the purpose of the workshop we defined a framework as “a way of organising things that can be easily communicated to allow for shared understanding or that can be implemented to allow for generalisations useful for research, policy or management”. Further, we developed the Stellenbosch Challenge for Invasion Science: “Can invasion science develop and improve frameworks that are useful for research, policy or management, and that are clear as to the contexts in which the frameworks do and do not apply?”. Particular considerations identified among meeting participants included the need to identify the limitations of a framework, specify how frameworks link to each other and broader issues, and to improve how frameworks can facilitate communication. We believe that the 24 papers in this special issue do much to meet this challenge. The papers apply existing frameworks to new data and contexts, review how the frameworks have been adopted and used, develop useable protocols and guidelines for applying frameworks to different contexts, refine the frameworks in light of experience, integrate frameworks for new purposes, identify gaps, and develop new frameworks to address issues that are currently not adequately dealt with. Frameworks in invasion science must continue to be developed, tested as broadly as possible, revised, and retired as contexts and needs change. However, frameworks dealing with pathways of introduction, progress along the introduction-naturalisation-invasion continuum, and the assessment of impacts are being increasingly formalised and set as standards. This, we argue, is an important step as invasion science starts to mature as a discipline.

MAcroecological Framework for Invasive Aliens (MAFIA): disentangling large-scale context dependence in biological invasions

Macroecology is the study of patterns, and the processes that determine those patterns, in the distribution and abundance of organisms at large scales, whether they be spatial (from hundreds of kilometres to global), temporal (from decades to centuries), and organismal (numbers of species or higher taxa). In the context of invasion ecology, macroecological studies include, for example, analyses of the richness, diversity, distribution, and abundance of alien species in regional floras and faunas, spatio-temporal dynamics of alien species across regions, and cross-taxonomic analyses of species traits among comparable native and alien species pools. However, macroecological studies aiming to explain and predict plant and animal naturalisations and invasions, and the resulting impacts, have, to date, rarely considered the joint effects of species traits, environment, and socioeconomic characteristics. To address this, we present the MAcroecological Framework for Invasive Aliens (MAFIA). The MAFIA explains the invasion phenomenon using three interacting classes of factors – alien species traits, location characteristics, and factors related to introduction events – and explicitly maps these interactions onto the invasion sequence from transport to naturalisation to invasion. The framework therefore helps both to identify how anthropogenic effects interact with species traits and environmental characteristics to determine observed patterns in alien distribution, abundance, and richness; and to clarify why neglecting anthropogenic effects can generate spurious conclusions. Event-related factors include propagule pressure, colonisation pressure, and residence time that are important for mediating the outcome of invasion processes. However, because of context dependence, they can bias analyses, for example those that seek to elucidate the role of alien species traits. In the same vein, failure to recognise and explicitly incorporate interactions among the main factors impedes our understanding of which macroecological invasion patterns are shaped by the environment, and of the importance of interactions between the species and their environment. The MAFIA is based largely on insights from studies of plants and birds, but we believe it can be applied to all taxa, and hope that it will stimulate comparative research on other groups and environments. By making the biases in macroecological analyses of biological invasions explicit, the MAFIA offers an opportunity to guide assessments of the context dependence of invasions at broad geographical scales.

Reciprocal human-natural system feedback loops within the invasion process

Biological invasions are inextricably linked to how people collect, move, interact with and perceive non-native species. However, invasion frameworks generally do not consider reciprocal interactions between non-native species and people. Non-native species can shape human actions via beneficial or detrimental ecological and socioeconomic effects and people, in turn, shape invasions through their movements, behaviour and how they respond to the collection, transport, introduction and spread of non-natives. The feedbacks that stem from this ‘coupled human and natural system’ (CHANS) could therefore play a key role in mitigating (i.e. negative feedback loops) or exacerbating (i.e. positive feedback loops) ongoing and future invasions. We posit that the invasion process could be subdivided into three CHANS that span from the source region from which non-natives originate to the recipient region in which they establish and spread. We also provide specific examples of feedback loops that occur within each CHANS that have either reduced or facilitated new introductions and spread of established non-native species. In so doing, we add to exisiting invasion frameworks to generate new hypotheses about human-based drivers of biological invasions and further efforts to determine how ecological outcomes feed back into human actions.

Harmonising the fields of invasion science and forest pathology

Invasive alien species are widely recognised as significant drivers of global environmental change, with far reaching ecological and socio-economic impacts. The trend of continuous increases in first records, with no apparent sign of saturation, is consistent across all taxonomic groups. However, taxonomic biases exist in the extent to which invasion processes have been studied. Invasive forest pathogens have caused, and they continue to result in dramatic damage to natural forests and woody ecosystems, yet their impacts are substantially underrepresented in the invasion science literature. Conversely, most studies of forest pathogens have been undertaken in the absence of a connection to the frameworks developed and used to study biological invasions. We believe this is, in part, a consequence of the mechanistic approach of the discipline of forest pathology; one that has been inherited from the broader discipline of plant pathology. Rather than investigating the origins of, and the processes driving the arrival of invasive microorganisms, the focus of pathologists is generally to investigate specific interactions between hosts and pathogens, with an emphasis on controlling the resulting disease problems. In contrast, central to the field of invasion science, which finds its roots in ecology, is the development and testing of general concepts and frameworks. The lack of knowledge of microbial biodiversity and ecology, speciation and geographic origin present challenges in understanding invasive forest pathogens under existing frameworks, and there is a need to address this shortfall. Advances in molecular technologies such as gene and genome sequencing and metagenomics studies have increased the “visibility” of microorganisms. We consider whether these technologies are being adequately applied to address the gaps between forest pathology and invasion science. We also interrogate the extent to which the two fields stand to gain by becoming more closely linked.