A comparison of the BISAP score and serum procalcitonin for predicting the severity of acute pancreatitis

Acute pancreatitis: A review of diagnosis, severity prediction and prognosis assessment from imaging technology, scoring system and artificial intelligence

Acute pancreatitis (AP) is a potentially life-threatening inflammatory disease of the pancreas, with clinical management determined by the severity of the disease. Diagnosis, severity prediction, and prognosis assessment of AP typically involve the use of imaging technologies, such as computed tomography, magnetic resonance imaging, and ultrasound, and scoring systems, including Ranson, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II, and Bedside Index for Severity in AP scores. Computed tomography is considered the gold standard imaging modality for AP due to its high sensitivity and specificity, while magnetic resonance imaging and ultrasound can provide additional information on biliary obstruction and vascular complications. Scoring systems utilize clinical and laboratory parameters to classify AP patients into mild, moderate, or severe categories, guiding treatment decisions, such as intensive care unit admission, early enteral feeding, and antibiotic use. Despite the central role of imaging technologies and scoring systems in AP management, these methods have limitations in terms of accuracy, reproducibility, practicality and economics. Recent advancements of artificial intelligence (AI) provide new opportunities to enhance their performance by analyzing vast amounts of clinical and imaging data. AI algorithms can analyze large amounts of clinical and imaging data, identify scoring system patterns, and predict the clinical course of disease. AI-based models have shown promising results in predicting the severity and mortality of AP, but further validation and standardization are required before widespread clinical application. In addition, understanding the correlation between these three technologies will aid in developing new methods that can accurately, sensitively, and specifically be used in the diagnosis, severity prediction, and prognosis assessment of AP through complementary advantages.

Severe Acute Pancreatitis Prediction: A Model Derived From a Prospective Registry Cohort

Background Severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) has a mortality rate as high as 40%. Early identification of SAP is required to appropriately triage and direct initial therapies. The purpose of this study was to develop a prognostic model that identifies patients at risk for developing SAP of patients managed according to a guideline-based standardized early medical management (EMM) protocol. Methods This single-center study included all patients diagnosed with acute pancreatitis (AP) and managed with the EMM protocol Methodist Acute Pancreatitis Protocol (MAPP) between April 2017 and September 2022. Classification and regression tree (CART®; Professional Extended Edition, version 8.0; Salford Systems, San Diego, CA), univariate, and logistic regression analyses were performed to develop a scoring system for AP severity prediction. The accuracy of the scoring system was measured by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Results A total of 516 patients with mild (n=436) or moderately severe and severe (n=80) AP were analyzed. CART analysis identified the cutoff values: creatinine (CR) (1.15 mg/dL), white blood cells (WBC) (10.5 × 109/L), procalcitonin (PCT) (0.155 ng/mL), and systemic inflammatory response system (SIRS). The prediction model was built with a multivariable logistic regression analysis, which identified CR, WBC, PCT, and SIRS as the main predictors of severity. When CR and only one other predictor value (WBC, PCT, or SIRS) met thresholds, then the probability of predicting SAP was >30%. The probability of predicting SAP was 72% (95%CI: 0.59-0.82) if all four of the main predictors were greater than the cutoff values. Conclusions Baseline laboratory cutoff values were identified and a logistic regression-based prognostic model was developed to identify patients treated with a standardized EMM who were at risk for SAP.

Comparison of different risk stratification systems for prediction of acute pancreatitis severity in patients referred to the emergency department of a tertiary care hospital

BACKGROUND

Prognostic prediction and estimation of severity at early stages of acute pancreatitis (AP) are crucial to reduce the complication rates and mortality. The objective of the present study is to evaluate the predicting ability of different clinical and radiological scores in AP.

METHODS

We retrospectively collected demographic and clinical data from 159 patients diagnosed with AP admitted to Canakkale Onsekiz Mart University Hospital between January 2017 and December 2019. Bedside index for severity AP (BISAP), and acute phys-iology and chronic health evaluation II (APACHE II) score at admission, Ranson and modified Glasgow Prognostic Score (mGPS) score at 48 h after admission were calculated. Modified computed tomography severity index (CTSI) was also calculated for each patient. Area under the curve (AUC) was calculated for each scoring system for predicting severe AP, pancreatic necrosis, length of hospital stay, and mortality by determining optimal cutoff points from the (ROC) curves.

RESULTS

mGPS and APACHE II had the highest AUC (0.929 and 0.823, respectively) to predict severe AP on admission with the best specificity and sensitivity. In predicting mortality BISAP (with a sensitivity, specificity, negative predictive value (NPV), and positive predictive value (PPV) of 75.0%, 70.9%, 98.2%, and 12.0%, respectively, [AUC: 0.793]) and APACHE II (with a sensitivity, specificity, NPV and PPV of 87.5%, 86.1%, 99.2%, and 25.0%, respectively, [AUC: 0.840]).

CONCLUSION

mGPS can be a valuable tool in predicting the patients more likely to develop severe AP and maybe somewhat better than BISAP score, APACHE II Ranson score, and mCTSI.

The predictive value of procalcitonin combined with C-reactive protein and D dimer in moderately severe and severe acute pancreatitis

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this study is to investigate the predictive value of a parametric model constructed by using procalcitonin, C-reactive protein (CRP) and D dimer within 48 h after admission in moderately severe and severe acute pancreatitis.

METHODS

A total of 238 patients were enrolled, of which 170 patients were moderately severe and severe acute pancreatitis (MSAP+SAP). The concentrations of procalcitonin, CRP and D dimer within 48 h after admission were obtained. The predictive value of the parametric model, modified computed tomography severity index (MCTSI), bedside index for severity in acute pancreatitis (BISAP), Ranson score, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) score, modified Marshall score and systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) score of all patients was calculated and compared.

RESULTS

The area under receiver operator characteristic curve, sensitivity, specificity, Youden index and critical value of the parametric model for predicting MSAP+SAP were 0.853 (95% CI, 0.804-0.903), 84.71%, 70.59%, 55.30% and 0.2833, respectively. The sensitivity of the parametric model was higher than that of MCTSI (84.00%), Ranson score (73.53%), BISAP (56.47%), APACHE II score (27.65%), modified Marshall score (17.06%) and SIRS score (78.24%); the specificity of it were higher than that of MCTSI (52.94%) and Ranson score (67.65%), but lower than BISAP (73.53%), APACHE II score (76.47%), modified Marshall score (100%)and SIRS score (100.00%).

CONCLUSION

The parametric model constructed by using procalcitonin 48 h, CRP 48 h and D dimer 48 h can be regarded as an evaluation model for predicting moderately severe and severe acute pancreatitis.

Risk factors for concomitant infectious pancreatic necrosis in patients with severe acute pancreatitis: A systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

Acute pancreatitis (AP) is a self-limiting disease. However, 20-30% of patients will develop into severe AP (SAP), and infectious pancreatic necrosis in the late course of SAP is the leading cause of death for such patients. This review aims to provide a comprehensive and systematic report of the currently published risk factors for complicated infectious pancreatic necrosis in patients with severe acute pancreatitis by meta-analysis of published retrospective case-control studies.

METHODS

Five electronic database systems were selected to search for articles on risk factors of infectious pancreatic necrosis in patients with severe acute pancreatitis. According to the heterogeneity among studies, the standardized mean difference (SMD), odds ratio and 95% confidence interval (95%CI) were calculated by applying a random-effects model or fixed-effects model, respectively.

RESULTS

As of 2nd Jun, 2021, a total of 1408 articles were searched, but only 21 articles were finally included in this meta-analysis. The results found that patients with severe acute pancreatitis complicated by infected pancreatic necrosis had higher APACHE II scores and higher levels of lipase (LPS), C-reactive protein (CRP) and procalcitonin (PCT) compared to patients with severe acute pancreatitis alone. The differences were statistically significant (APACHE II: SMD = 0.86, 95%CI: 0.55, 1.18; LPS: SMD = 1.52, 95%CI: 1.13, 1.92; CRP: SMD = 1.42, 95%CI: 1.05, 1.79; PCT: SMD = 1.82, 95%CI: 1.36, 2.28).

CONCLUSIONS

Compared with patients with severe acute pancreatitis alone, high levels of LPS, CRP, PCT and high APACHE II score were risk factors for infectious pancreatic necrosis in patients with severe acute pancreatitis.

Oxid Comparative Analysis of the Significance of Bisap and Mews Score for an Early Assessment of Illness Severity and Treatment Outcome of Acute Pancreatitis

The aim of this study was to determine the significance of the use of the BISAP score, which is specific for patients with AP, in relation to the application of the MEWS score that is important for assessing the condition of critically ill patients in intensive care units, but is not specific for patients with AP. The research was conducted as a cohort prospective study and included patients of both sexes, older than 18 and diagnosed with AP. BISAP and MEWS score were monitored at least at four time points: on admission to the hospital (zero), 48 hours, 72 hours and 7 days after admission to the hospital.

High levels of discrimination between patients with fatal outcome and cured patients are determined in both cases, with discrimination at MEWS being somewhat higher than BISAP score. The BISAP0 had the best discrimination for BISAP score, AUROC (0.807) and also MEWS0 for MEWS score, AUROC (0.899). In our research, the highest sensitivity was shown by BISAP7d (92.1%) and MEWS48 (88.1%), and a high specificity of 87.5% had BISAP score, 48h, 72h and MEWS score at all four points of measurement.

BISAP score has a better prognostic value in relation to the form of pancreatitis, the development of complications and the outcome. However, the calculation of the MEWS score is based on monitoring the basic vital parameters so that its application is much simpler and does not require additional costs.

Comparison of MPL-ANN and PLS-DA models for predicting the severity of patients with acute pancreatitis: An exploratory study

OBJECTIVE

Acute pancreatitis (AP) is a common inflammatory disorder that may develop into severe AP (SAP), resulting in life-threatening complications and even death. The purpose of this study was to explore two different machine learning models of multilayer perception-artificial neural network (MPL-ANN) and partial least squares-discrimination (PLS-DA) to diagnose and predict AP patients' severity.

METHODS

The MPL-ANN and PLS-DA models were established using candidate markers from 15 blood routine parameters and five serum biochemical indexes of 133 mild acute pancreatitis (MAP) patients, 167 SAP (including 88 moderately SAP) patients, and 69 healthy controls (HCs). The independent parameters and combined model's diagnostic efficiency in AP severity differentiation were analyzed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC).

RESULTS

The neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR) is the most useful marker in 20 parameters for screening AP patients [AUC = 0.990, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.984-0.997, sensitivity 94.3%, specificity 98.6%]. The MPL-ANN model based on six optimal parameters exhibited better diagnostic and predict performance (AUC = 0.984, 95% CI: 0.960-1.00, sensitivity 92.7%, specificity 93.3%, accuracy 93.0%) than the PLS-DA model based on five optimal parameters (AUC = 0.912, 95% CI: 0.853-0.971, sensitivity 87.8%, specificity 84.4%, accuracy 84.8%) in discriminating MAP patients from SAP patients.

CONCLUSION

The results demonstrated that the MPL-ANN model based on routine blood and serum biochemical indexes provides a reliable and straightforward daily clinical practice tool to predict AP patients' severity.

Larger bore percutaneous catheter in necrotic pancreatic fluid collection is associated with better outcomes

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the impact of initial catheter size on the clinical outcomes in acute pancreatitis (AP).

METHODS

This retrospective study comprised consecutive patients with AP who underwent percutaneous catheter drainage (PCD) between January 2018 and May 2019. Three hundred fifteen consecutive patients underwent PCD during the study period. Based on the initial catheter size, patients were divided into group I (≤ 12 F) and group II (> 12 F). The differences in the clinical outcomes between the two groups, as well as multiple subgroups (based on the severity, timing of drainage, and presence of organ failure (OF)), were evaluated.

RESULTS

One hundred forty-six patients (mean age, 41.2 years, 114 males) fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Ninety-nine (67.8%) patients had severe AP based on revised Atlanta classification. The mean pain to PCD was 22 days (range, 3-267 days). Mean length of hospitalization (LOH) was 27.9 ± 15.8 days. Necrosectomy was performed in 20.5% of patients, and mortality was 16.4%. Group I and II comprised 74 and 72 patients, respectively. There was no significant difference in baseline characteristics, except for a greater number of patients with OF in group II (p = 0.048). The intensive care unit stay was significantly shorter, and multiple readmissions were less frequent in group II (p = 0.037 and 0.013, respectively). Patients with severe AP and moderately severe AP in group II had significantly reduced rates of readmissions (p = 0.035) and significantly shorter LOH (p = 0.041), respectively.

CONCLUSION

Large-sized catheters were associated with better clinical outcomes regardless of disease severity and other baseline disease characteristics.

KEY POINTS

• Larger catheter size for initial PCD was associated with better clinical outcomes in AP. • The benefits were independent of the severity of AP, timing of PCD (ANC vs. WON) and presence of organ failure.

Machine Learning Models of Acute Kidney Injury Prediction in Acute Pancreatitis Patients

Background. Acute kidney injury (AKI) has long been recognized as a common and important complication of acute pancreatitis (AP). In the study, machine learning (ML) techniques were used to establish predictive models for AKI in AP patients during hospitalization. This is a retrospective review of prospectively collected data of AP patients admitted within one week after the onset of abdominal pain to our department from January 2014 to January 2019. Eighty patients developed AKI after admission (AKI group) and 254 patients did not (non-AKI group) in the hospital. With the provision of additional information such as demographic characteristics or laboratory data, support vector machine (SVM), random forest (RF), classification and regression tree (CART), and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) were used to build models of AKI prediction and compared to the predictive performance of the classic model using logistic regression (LR). XGBoost performed best in predicting AKI with an AUC of 91.93% among the machine learning models. The AUC of logistic regression analysis was 87.28%. Present findings suggest that compared to the classical logistic regression model, machine learning models using features that can be easily obtained at admission had a better performance in predicting AKI in the AP patients.

Characteristics of inflammatory factors and lymphocyte subsets in patients with severe COVID-19

To investigate the inflammatory factors and lymphocyte subsets which play an important role in the course of severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). A total of 27 patients with severe COVID-19 who were admitted to Tongji Hospital in Wuhan from 1 to 21 February 2020 were recruited to the study. The characteristics of interleukin-1β (IL-1β), IL-2 receptor (IL-2R), IL-6, IL-8, IL-10, tumor necrosis factor-α (TNF)-α, C-reactive protein (CRP), serum ferritin and procalcitonin (PCT), and lymphocyte subsets of these patients were retrospectively compared before and after treatment. Before treatment, there was no significant difference in most inflammatory factors (IL-1β, IL-2R, IL-6, IL-8, IL-10, CRP, and serum ferritin) between male and female patients. Levels of IL-2R, IL-6, TNF-α, and CRP decreased significantly after treatment, followed by IL-8, IL-10, and PCT. Serum ferritin was increased in all patients before treatment but did not decrease significantly after treatment. IL-1β was normal in most patients before treatment. Lymphopenia was common among these patients with severe COVID-19. Analysis of lymphocyte subsets showed that CD4+ and particularly CD8+ T lymphocytes increased significantly after treatment. However, B lymphocytes and natural killer cells showed no significant changes after treatment. A pro-inflammatory response and decreased level of T lymphocytes were associated with severe COVID-19.

Accuracy of BISAP score in prediction of severe acute pancreatitis

Objective

To determine the accuracy of BISAP score in comparison with Ranson's score in detection of severe acute pancreatitis.

Methods

This cross sectional study was performed in Emergency department and Surgery department of Dow university hospital from January 2015 to December 2015. A total of 206 patients were included. Those diagnosed with acute pancreatitis on the basis of epigastric pain, serum amylase levels more than 300 (more than 3 times normal) and meeting the inclusion criteria were subjected to investigations for Ranson's and BISAP scoring. BISAP score was calculated at 24 hours and Ranson's score both at 24 and 48 hours. A score of > 3 was used to label severe acute pancreatitis according to both scoring systems.

Results

In our study accuracy to predict SAP by BISAP score was 76.2 % and Ranson's score was 82.2%. On the basis of sensitivity, Ranson's scores predicted SAP more accurately than BISAP scores (97.4% vs. 69.2%). Regarding specificity, both scores predicted SAP almost equally (78.4% vs. 77.8%).

Conclusion

BISAP score is a valuable tool in predicting severe Acute Pancreatitis in early hours.

Evaluation of the BISAP scoring system in prognostication of acute pancreatitis - A prospective observational study

INTRODUCTION

Severe acute pancreatitis has a high mortality and its early identification is important for management and risk stratification. The bedside index for severity in acute pancreatitis (BISAP) is a simple scoring system done at admission which predicts the severity of pancreatitis. Procalcitonin is an inflammatory marker which is raised very early and helps in early prediction of the severity of disease. This study aims to evaluate the BISAP score and Procalcitonin in prognostication of acute pancreatitis.

METHODS

A prospective observational study of 60 patients presenting with acute pancreatitis was done at XXX Medical College and Hospital from July 2015 to June 2016. BISAP, APACHE-II, Ranson criteria, and CT severity index (CTSI) of all patients were calculated. Procalcitonin card test was done for all patients. The patients were stratified according by BISAP score and procalcitonin positivity into categories of severe pancreatitis, organ failure and pancreatic necrosis, as well as the number of deaths. The comparison of BISAP with other scoring systems, Procalcitonin (PCT), C-reactive protein (CRP), hematocrit, and body mass index (BMI) was done by the area under the receiver-operating curve (AUC) to prediction of severe acute pancreatitis, organ failure, necrosis, and death.

RESULTS

Of the 60 patients, 14 (23.3%) developed severe acute pancreatitis, 11 (18.3%) Organ failure, 21 (35%) pancreatic necrosis and 7 (11.6%) died. A BISAP score of ≥3 was a statistically significant cutoff value. AUCs for predicting severe pancreatitis and death of BISAP were 0.875 and 0.740respectively, similar to those for Ranson criteria (0.802, 0.763) and APACHE-II (0.891, 0.769) and greater than AUCs for CTSI (0.641, 0.554). The AUC for prediction of organ failure were 0.906, 0.833, 0.874 and 0.623 for BISAP, Ranson criteria, APACHE-II, and CTSI respectively. AUCs for PCT predicting severity, organ failure, and death were 0.940, 0.923 and 0.769 respectively were similar to BISAP but greater than those for CRP (0.755, 0.719, 0.693), hematocrit (0.540, 0.570, 0.550), and BMI (0.493, 0.523, 0.497).

CONCLUSION

The BISAP predicts severity, organ failure and death, in acute pancreatitis very well.It is as good as APACHE-II but better than Ranson criteria, CTSI, CRP, hematocrit, and BMI. PCT is a promising inflammatory marker with prediction rates similar to BISAP.

Inflammatory mediators in the diagnosis and treatment of acute pancreatitis: pentraxin-3, procalcitonin and myeloperoxidase

INTRODUCTION

Acute pancreatitis (AP) is the third most common gastrointestinal disease at hospital admission. The etiology and pathogenesis of this disease are not completely clear. Our study was intended to determine the systemic levels of pentraxin-3 (PTX-3), myeloperoxidase (MPO), procalcitonin (PCT), and C-reactive protein (CRP) as prognostic parameters in early stages of AP. We also determined the effects of treatment on PTX-3, MPO, PCT and CRP levels in AP.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

The study group comprised 44 AP patients (22 male, 22 female; age: 49.3 ±16.9 years) referred to our outpatient clinic. Additionally, our investigation included a control group of 30 healthy volunteers (18 male, 12 female; age: 50.8 ±12.6 years).

RESULTS

Leukocytes, glucose, aspartate aminotransferase (AST (SGOT)), alanine aminotransferase (ALT (SGPT)), alkaline phosphatase (ALP), total and direct bilirubin levels were significantly higher in the AP group (p < 0.05, all). CRP, PTX-3, MPO and PCT were considerably higher in the AP group (p < 0.001, all), and after treatment, CRP, PTX-3, MPO and PCT levels were significantly lower (p < 0.001, all).

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings indicated that the CRP, PTX-3, MPO and PCT levels increase in patients with AP and hence these indicators can be used as diagnostic factors to predict inflammation severity in AP. It was revealed that after treatment, there were significant reductions in biomarker levels. However, further research is needed in order to understand how these biomarkers can help to monitor inflammatory responses in AP.

Utilizing Multiparameter Scores and Procalcitonin as Prognosis Markers for the Degree of Severity of Acute Pancreatitis

ABSTRACT: Aim: Corroborating the Ranson, Marshall, computer tomography severity index (EPIC score) multiparameter tests with the biological marker procalcitonin in order to establish the degree of severity of acute pancreatitis for therapeutic management and rate of complications. Material and method: 20 patients were surveyed, diagnosed with acute pancreatitis in the surgery clinic of the Military Emergency Hospital Dr. Ștefan Odobleja, between 2016-2017, with the aim of determining the clinical, etiological and severity diagnosis by corroborating the multiparameter scores with the plasma level of procalcitonin. Results: Following the use of multiparameter scores to identify the degree of severity of acute pancreatitis, we established that the best prediction is achieved by the Ranson score and the computer tomography severity index (EPIC score), with an accuracy of 90% . As for the values of the correlation coefficient, this was highly significant when correlating Ranson score and procalcitonin (r = 0.918). Other correlations were also highly significant, with values of r = 0.797 when correlating EPIC score and procalcitonin, and r = 0.736 when correlating Marshall score with procalcitonin. Conclusion: Our study achieved an early identification of the severe form of acute pancreatitis, by using the multiparameter tests and the biologic marker procalcitonin, allowing for the appropriate therapy to be implemented and thus decreasing the complication rate of this pathological entity. Levels of serum procalcitonin exceeded the normal limit of 2 ng/ml for 37.5% of the intermediate - severe form patients, and for 100% of the severe form patients. The levels of procalcitonin were highly correlated with the Ranson score, with a slightly lower correlation for the Marshall and EPIC scores.

The Bedside Index for Severity in Acute Pancreatitis: a systematic review of prospective studies to determine predictive performance

Background: predicting the development of severe disease has remained a major challenge in management of acute pancreatitis. The Bedside Index for Severity in Acute Pancreatitis (BISAP) is easy to calculate from the data available in the first 24 hours. Here, we performed a systematic review to determine the prognostic accuracy of the BISAP for severe acute pancreatitis (SAP). Methods: major databases of biomedical publications were searched during the first week of October 2015. Two independent reviewers searched records in two phases. Studies that reported prognostic accuracy of the BISAP for SAP from prospective cohorts were included. The pooled area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) was calculated. Results: Twelve studies were included for data-synthesis and methodology quality assessment was performed for 10. All the studies had enrolled consecutive patients, had a broad spectrum of the disease severity, reported explicit interpretation of the predictor, outcome of interest was well defined and had adequate follow-up. Blinded outcome assessment was reported in only one study. The pooled AUC was 0.85 (95% CI 0.80-0.90). There was significant heterogeneity, I2 86.6%. Studies using revised Atlanta classification in defining SAP had a pooled AUC of 0.92 (95% CI, 0.90-0.95), but heterogeneity persisted, I2 67%. Subgroup analysis based on rate of SAP (>20% vs <20%) did not eliminate the heterogeneity. Conclusion: the BISAP has very good predictive performance for SAP across different patient population and etiologies. Studies to evaluate the impact of incorporating the BISAP into clinical practice to improve outcome in acute pancreatitis are needed before adoption could be advocated with confidence.

The Bedside Index for Severity in Acute Pancreatitis: a systematic review of prospective studies to determine predictive performance

Background: predicting the development of severe disease has remained a major challenge in management of acute pancreatitis. The Bedside Index for Severity in Acute Pancreatitis (BISAP) is easy to calculate from the data available in the first 24 hours. Here, we performed a systematic review to determine the prognostic accuracy of the BISAP for severe acute pancreatitis (SAP). Methods: major databases of biomedical publications were searched during the first week of October 2015. Two independent reviewers searched records in two phases. Studies that reported prognostic accuracy of the BISAP for SAP from prospective cohorts were included. The pooled area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) was calculated. Results: Twelve studies were included for data-synthesis and methodology quality assessment was performed for 10. All the studies had enrolled consecutive patients, had a broad spectrum of the disease severity, reported explicit interpretation of the predictor, outcome of interest was well defined and had adequate follow-up. Blinded outcome assessment was reported in only one study. The pooled AUC was 0.85 (95% CI 0.80-0.90). There was significant heterogeneity, I² 86.6%. Studies using revised Atlanta classification in defining SAP had a pooled AUC of 0.92 (95% CI, 0.90-0.95), but heterogeneity persisted, I² 67%. Subgroup analysis based on rate of SAP (>20% vs <20%) did not eliminate the heterogeneity. Conclusion: the BISAP has very good predictive performance for SAP across different patient population and etiologies. Studies to evaluate the impact of incorporating the BISAP into clinical practice to improve outcome in acute pancreatitis are needed before adoption could be advocated with confidence.

Early warning score independently predicts adverse outcome and mortality in patients with acute pancreatitis

PURPOSE

The aim of this study was to compare the prognostic value of established scoring systems with early warning scores in a large cohort of patients with acute pancreatitis.

METHODS

In patients presenting with acute pancreatitis, age, sex, American Society of Anaesthesiologists (ASA) grade, Modified Glasgow Score, Ranson criteria, APACHE II scores and early warning score (EWS) were recorded for the first 72 h following admission. These variables were compared between survivors and non-survivors, between patients with mild/moderate and severe pancreatitis (based on the 2012 Atlanta Classification) and between patients with a favourable or adverse outcome.

RESULTS

A total of 629 patients were identified. EWS was the best predictor of adverse outcome amongst all of the assessed variables (area under curve (AUC) values 0.81, 0.84 and 0.83 for days 1, 2 and 3, respectively) and was the most accurate predictor of mortality on both days 2 and 3 (AUC values of 0.88 and 0.89, respectively). Multivariable analysis revealed that an EWS ≥2 was independently associated with severity of pancreatitis, adverse outcome and mortality.

CONCLUSION

This study confirms the usefulness of EWS in predicting the outcome of acute pancreatitis. It should become the mainstay of risk stratification in patients with acute pancreatitis.

Serum C-reactive protein, procalcitonin, and lactate dehydrogenase for the diagnosis of pancreatic necrosis

BACKGROUND

The treatment of people with pancreatic necrosis differs from that of people with oedematous pancreatitis. It is important to know the diagnostic accuracy of serum C-reactive protein (CRP), serum procalcitonin, and serum lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) as a triage test for the detection of pancreatic necrosis in people with acute pancreatitis, so that an informed decision can be made as to whether the person with pancreatic necrosis needs further investigations such as computed tomography (CT) scan or magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scan and treatment for pancreatic necrosis started. There is currently no standard clinical practice, although CRP, particularly an increasing trend of CRP, is often used as a triage test to determine whether the person requires further imaging. There is also currently no systematic review of the diagnostic test accuracy of CRP, procalcitonin, and LDH for the diagnosis of pancreatic necrosis in people with acute pancreatitis.

OBJECTIVES

To compare the diagnostic accuracy of CRP, procalcitonin, or LDH (index test), either alone or in combination, in the diagnosis of necrotising pancreatitis in people with acute pancreatitis and without organ failure.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched MEDLINE, Embase, Science Citation Index Expanded, National Institute for Health Research (NIHR HTA and DARE), and other databases until March 2017. We searched the references of the included studies to identify additional studies. We did not restrict studies based on language or publication status, or whether data were collected prospectively or retrospectively. We also performed a 'related search' and 'citing reference' search in MEDLINE and Embase.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included all studies that evaluated the diagnostic test accuracy of CRP, procalcitonin, and LDH for the diagnosis of pancreatic necrosis in people with acute pancreatitis using the following reference standards, either alone or in combination: radiological features of pancreatic necrosis (contrast-enhanced CT or MRI), surgeon's judgement of pancreatic necrosis during surgery, or histological confirmation of pancreatic necrosis. Had we found case-control studies, we planned to exclude them because they are prone to bias; however, we did not locate any. Two review authors independently identified the relevant studies from the retrieved references.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Two review authors independently extracted data, including methodological quality assessment, from the included studies. As the included studies reported CRP, procalcitonin, and LDH on different days of admission and measured at different cut-off levels, it was not possible to perform a meta-analysis using the bivariate model as planned. We have reported the sensitivity, specificity, post-test probability of a positive and negative index test along with 95% confidence interval (CI) on each of the different days of admission and measured at different cut-off levels.

MAIN RESULTS

A total of three studies including 242 participants met the inclusion criteria for this review. One study reported the diagnostic performance of CRP for two threshold levels (> 200 mg/L and > 279 mg/L) without stating the day on which the CRP was measured. One study reported the diagnostic performance of procalcitonin on day 1 (1 day after admission) using a threshold level of 0.5 ng/mL. One study reported the diagnostic performance of CRP on day 3 (3 days after admission) using a threshold level of 140 mg/L and LDH on day 5 (5 days after admission) using a threshold level of 290 U/L. The sensitivities and specificities varied: the point estimate of the sensitivities ranged from 0.72 to 0.88, while the point estimate of the specificities ranged from 0.75 to 1.00 for the different index tests on different days of hospital admission. However, the confidence intervals were wide: confidence intervals of sensitivities ranged from 0.51 to 0.97, while those of specificities ranged from 0.18 to 1.00 for the different tests on different days of hospital admission. Overall, none of the tests assessed in this review were sufficiently accurate to suggest that they could be useful in clinical practice.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

The paucity of data and methodological deficiencies in the studies meant that it was not possible to arrive at any conclusions regarding the diagnostic test accuracy of the index test because of the uncertainty of the results. Further well-designed diagnostic test accuracy studies with prespecified index test thresholds of CRP, procalcitonin, LDH; appropriate follow-up (for at least two weeks to ensure that the person does not have pancreatic necrosis, as early scans may not indicate pancreatic necrosis); and clearly defined reference standards (of surgical or radiological confirmation of pancreatic necrosis) are important to reliably determine the diagnostic accuracy of CRP, procalcitonin, and LDH.

Predictive Capacity of Biomarkers for Severe Acute Pancreatitis

Background: Early prediction of severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) substantially improves treatment of patients. A large amount of biomarkers have been studied with this objective. The aim of this work was to study predictive biomarkers using preset cut-off levels in an unselected population of patients with acute pancreatitis (AP). Methods: 232 patients (52.2% males, median age 66 years) with AP admitted to Skåne University Hospital, Malmö, were consecutively enrolled. Blood samples were collected upon admission and clinical data were gathered both prospectively at inclusion and through review of medical notes. Cut-off levels were defined based on the reports of prior studies, and through their results eight biomarkers (IL-1β, IL-6, IL-8, IL-10, TNF-α, MCP-1, procalcitonin and D-dimer) were selected for analysis. Results: Of the patients, 83.2% had mild AP and 16.8% had SAP. Levels of IL-1β, IL-6 and IL-10 were significantly (p < 0.05) higher upon admission in the group with SAP. When applying the preset cut-off levels on our material, sensitivity and specificity for prediction of severity were low. Receiver operating characteristic curves showed that selected cut-off levels were acceptable, but areas under the curves were inferior compared to other studies. The results did not improve when using the revised Atlanta 2012 classification. Conclusions: Previous studies on severity prediction of AP are difficult to compare due to large variations in setups and outcomes. Calculated cut-offs in our cohort were in acceptable range from preset levels, however areas under the curves were low, indicating suboptimal biomarkers for the unselected population investigated. For comparable results and possible clinical implementations, future studies need large consecutive series with a reasonable percentage of severe cases. Additionally, novel biomarkers need to be explored.

Early prediction of intestinal mucosal barrier function impairment by elevated serum procalcitonin in rats with severe acute pancreatitis

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study was to evaluate serum procalcitonin (PCT) levels as a prognostic indicator of intestinal barrier function impairment in rats with severe acute pancreatitis (SAP).

METHODS

Thirty-six male Sprague Dawley rats were randomly grouped into SAP group (injected sodium taurocholate via biliopancreatic duct), Gln group (gavaged with glutamine after modeling), and control group. Blood, pancreatic, and terminal ileum tissues were obtained from the rats after 6 h of modeling. Serum amylase (Amy) levels were determined using an automatic biochemical detector, while endotoxin (ET), diamine oxidase (DAO), and PCT levels were measured by ELISA test. The pathology of pancreatic and small intestine tissues were observed. PCT protein expression in intestinal tissues were detected by immunohistochemistry and western blot.

RESULT

Pancreatic and intestinal injuries in Gln group were significantly lower than SAP group. Serum amylase, DAO, and PCT levels in SAP and Gln groups differed greatly and were significantly higher than control group. Immuno-histochemistry and western blot results showed that PCT protein expression levels in small intestine tissues of SAP group were higher than Gln group and control group. Serum PCT levels had a significant correlation with serum endotoxin, DAO levels and intestinal mucosal injury scores.

CONCLUSION

PCT expression in serum and intestinal tissues in SAP rats increased significantly in the early stages of SAP, and was closely related to the onset and degree of intestinal barrier function impairment. Thus, our results showed that measuring serum PCT can be used to predict intestinal mucosal barrier function impairment in SAP rats.

Evaluating the Ability of the Bedside Index for Severity of Acute Pancreatitis Score to Predict Severe Acute Pancreatitis: A Meta-Analysis

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the diagnostic performance of the bedside index for severity in acute pancreatitis (BISAP) score in predicting severe acute pancreatitis (SAP).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A systematic search was conducted using PubMed, Cochrane library and EMBASE databases up to May 2014, and 9 related studies, including 1,972 subjects, were reviewed. Pooled sensitivity, specificity, positive likelihood ratio (PLR), negative likelihood ratio (NLR), diagnosis of odds ratio (DOR) and hierarchic summary receiver-operating characteristic (HSROC) curves, as well as the area under the HSROC curve (AUC), were assessed using the HSROC and bivariate mixed effects models. Moreover, a subgroup analysis stratified by cutoff value was performed to measure the effect of the diagnostic threshold on the performance of the BISAP score. Finally, publication bias was assessed using Deeks' funnel plot asymmetry test. Statistical analyses were performed using the STATA 12.0 software.

RESULTS

The pooled sensitivity, specificity, PLR, NLR and DOR of the BISAP for predicting SAP were 64.82% (95% CI: 54.47-73.74%), 83.62% (95% CI: 70.03-91.77%), 3.96 (95% CI: 2.27-6.89), 0.42 (95% CI: 0.34-0.52) and 9.41 (95% CI: 5.38-16.45), respectively. The AUC was 0.77 (95% CI: 0.73-0.80). Moreover, the subgroup analysis results demonstrated that the BISAP cutoff point at 3 had a higher specificity and greater accuracy than at 2 to predict SAP. No significant publication bias was detected across the studies (p = 0.359).

CONCLUSION

The BISAP score showed low sensitivity but high specificity for assessing the severity of acute pancreatitis.

Acute Pancreatitis-Progress and Challenges: A Report on an International Symposium

An international symposium entitled "Acute pancreatitis: progress and challenges" was held on November 5, 2014 at the Hapuna Beach Hotel, Big Island, Hawaii, as part of the 45th Anniversary Meeting of the American Pancreatic Association and the Japanese Pancreas Society. The course was organized and directed by Drs. Stephen Pandol, Tooru Shimosegawa, Robert Sutton, Bechien Wu, and Santhi Swaroop Vege. The symposium objectives were to: (1) highlight current issues in management of acute pancreatitis, (2) discuss promising treatments, (3) consider development of quality indicators and improved measures of disease activity, and (4) present a framework for international collaboration for development of new therapies. This article represents a compilation and adaptation of brief summaries prepared by speakers at the symposium with the purpose of broadly disseminating information and initiatives.

The Value of BISAP Score for Predicting Mortality and Severity in Acute Pancreatitis: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

PURPOSE

The Bedside Index for Severity in Acute Pancreatitis (BISAP) score has been developed to identify patients at high risk for mortality or severe disease early during the course of acute pancreatitis. We aimed to undertake a meta-analysis to quantify the accuracy of BISAP score for predicting mortality and severe acute pancreatitis (SAP).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We searched the databases of Pubmed, Embase, and the Cochrane Library to identify studies using the BISAP score to predict mortality or SAP. The pooled sensitivity, specificity, likelihood ratios, and diagnostic odds ratio (DOR) were calculated from each study and were compared with the traditional scoring systems.

RESULTS

Twelve cohorts from 10 studies were included. The overall sensitivity of a BISAP score of ≥3 for mortality was 56% (95% CI, 53%-60%), with a specificity of 91% (95% CI, 90%-91%). The positive and negative likelihood ratios were 5.65 (95% CI, 4.23-7.55) and 0.48 (95% CI, 0.41-0.56), respectively. Regarding the outcome of SAP, the pooled sensitivity was 51% (43%-60%), and the specificity was 91% (89%-92%). The pooled positive and negative likelihood ratios were 7.23 (4.21-12.42) and 0.56 (0.44-0.71), respectively. Compared with BISAP score, the Ranson criteria and APACHEⅡscore showed higher sensitivity and lower specificity for both outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

The BISAP score was a reliable tool to identify AP patients at high risk for unfavorable outcomes. Compared with the Ranson criteria and APACHEⅡscore, BISAP score outperformed in specificity, but having a suboptimal sensitivity for mortality as well as SAP.

Predicting morbidity and mortality in acute pancreatitis in an Indian population: a comparative study of the BISAP score, Ranson's score and CT severity index

OBJECTIVE

Our aim was to prospectively evaluate the accuracy of the bedside index for severity in acute pancreatitis (BISAP) score in predicting mortality, as well as intermediate markers of severity, in a tertiary care centre in east central India, which caters mostly for an economically underprivileged population.

METHODS

A total of 119 consecutive cases with acute pancreatitis were admitted to our institution between November 2012 and October 2014. BISAP scores were calculated for all cases, within 24 hours of presentation. Ranson's score and computed tomography severity index (CTSI) were also established. The respective abilities of the three scoring systems to predict mortality was evaluated using trend and discrimination analysis. The optimal cut-off score for mortality from the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve was used to evaluate the development of persistent organ failure and pancreatic necrosis (PNec).

RESULTS

Of the 119 cases, 42 (35.2%) developed organ failure and were classified as severe acute pancreatitis (SAP), 47 (39.5%) developed PNec, and 12 (10.1%) died. The area under the curve (AUC) results for BISAP score in predicting SAP, PNec, and mortality were 0.962, 0.934 and 0.846, respectively. Ranson's score showed a slightly lower accuracy for predicting SAP (AUC 0.956) and mortality (AUC 0.841). CTSI was the most accurate in predicting PNec, with an AUC of 0.958. The sensitivity and specificity of BISAP score, with a cut-off of ≥3 in predicting mortality, were 100% and 69.2%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The BISAP score represents a simple way of identifying, within 24 hours of presentation, patients at greater risk of dying and the development of intermediate markers of severity. This risk stratification method can be utilized to improve clinical care and facilitate enrolment in clinical trials.

The Value of BISAP Score for Predicting Mortality and Severity in Acute Pancreatitis: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

PURPOSE

The Bedside Index for Severity in Acute Pancreatitis (BISAP) score has been developed to identify patients at high risk for mortality or severe disease early during the course of acute pancreatitis. We aimed to undertake a meta-analysis to quantify the accuracy of BISAP score for predicting mortality and severe acute pancreatitis (SAP).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We searched the databases of Pubmed, Embase, and the Cochrane Library to identify studies using the BISAP score to predict mortality or SAP. The pooled sensitivity, specificity, likelihood ratios, and diagnostic odds ratio (DOR) were calculated from each study and were compared with the traditional scoring systems.

RESULTS

Twelve cohorts from 10 studies were included. The overall sensitivity of a BISAP score of ≥3 for mortality was 56% (95% CI, 53%-60%), with a specificity of 91% (95% CI, 90%-91%). The positive and negative likelihood ratios were 5.65 (95% CI, 4.23-7.55) and 0.48 (95% CI, 0.41-0.56), respectively. Regarding the outcome of SAP, the pooled sensitivity was 51% (43%-60%), and the specificity was 91% (89%-92%). The pooled positive and negative likelihood ratios were 7.23 (4.21-12.42) and 0.56 (0.44-0.71), respectively. Compared with BISAP score, the Ranson criteria and APACHEⅡscore showed higher sensitivity and lower specificity for both outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

The BISAP score was a reliable tool to identify AP patients at high risk for unfavorable outcomes. Compared with the Ranson criteria and APACHEⅡscore, BISAP score outperformed in specificity, but having a suboptimal sensitivity for mortality as well as SAP.

Early phase of acute pancreatitis: Assessment and management

Acute pancreatitis (AP) is a potentially life-threatening disease with a wide spectrum of severity. The overall mortality of AP is approximately 5%. According to the revised Atlanta classification system, AP can be classified as mild, moderate, or severe. Severe AP often takes a clinical course with two phases, an early and a late phase, which should both be considered separately. In this review article, we first discuss general aspects of AP, including incidence, pathophysiology, etiology, and grading of severity, then focus on the assessment of patients with suspected AP, including diagnosis and risk stratification, followed by the management of AP during the early phase, with special emphasis on fluid therapy, pain management, nutrition, and antibiotic prophylaxis.

A prospective study of the Bedside Index for Severity in Acute Pancreatitis (BISAP) score in acute pancreatitis: an Indian perspective

INTRODUCTION

A simple and easily applicable system for stratifying patients with acute pancreatitis is lacking. The aim of our study was to evaluate the ability of BISAP score to predict mortality in acute pancreatitis patients from our institution and to predict which patients are at risk for development of organ failure, persistent organ failure and pancreatic necrosis.

METHODS

All patients with acute pancreatitis were included in the study. BISAP score was calculated within 24 h of admission. A Contrast CT was used to differentiate interstitial from necrotizing pancreatitis within seven days of hospitalization whereas Marshall Scoring System was used to characterize organ failure.

RESULTS

Among 246 patients M:F = 153:93, most common aetiology among men was alcoholism and among women was gallstone disease. 207 patients had no organ failure and remaining 39 developed organ failure. 17 patients had persistent organ failure, 16 of those with BISAP score ≥3. 13 patients in our study died, out of which 12 patients had BISAP score ≥3. We also found that a BISAP score of ≥3 had a sensitivity of 92%, specificity of 76%, a positive predictive value of 17%, and a negative predictive value of 99% for mortality.

DISCUSSION

The BISAP score is a simple and accurate method for the early identification of patients at increased risk for in hospital mortality and morbidity.