Persistent joblessness and fertility intentions

Research on influencing factors of college teachers' second child fertility intentions--Taking Jinan as an example

BACKGROUND

Fertility intentions, as a direct driver of fertility behavior, play an important role in the implementation of national fertility policy and population development. This study explored the influencing factors of college teachers' second child fertility intentions in Jinan, China on the basis of TPB.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Based on the theory of planned behavior, this paper employs basic characteristics analysis, difference analysis, and factor analysis related to the fertility intentions of the participants. Analysis found participants between 31 and 40 years old had the highest second child fertility intentions, and participants with a college-age first child had the lowest second child fertility intentions. Attitude and subjective norms had a positive impact on second child fertility intentions, and policy awareness had a positive impact on attitude, which indirectly affected second child fertility intentions. Subjective norms had the greatest influence on second child fertility intentions, followed by attitude, and policy awareness had the least influence on second child fertility intentions.

SIGNIFICANCE/FUTURE RESEARCH

The findings of this paper can enrich the theoretical research on fertility intentions, and also provide more optimal practical references for the formulation and propagation of China's fertility policy as well as the improvement of the division of family roles in China. Future research can further explore the impact of fertility policy on the fertility intentions of other groups.

Concentration of critical events over the life course and life satisfaction later in life

Critical events create turning points, disrupt individuals' life courses, and affect wellbeing. Periods of life densely populated with critical events may translate into an acute resource drain, affecting long-term wellbeing more strongly than if the same events were sparsely distributed. We investigate how the co-occurrence of critical events and their concentration in time influence life satisfaction in later life. To do so, we construct a novel indicator, the Concentration Index, based not only on the number but also on the time lag between occurrences. Using retrospective information on critical events in family, work, health, and residential trajectories in Switzerland, we show that the higher the concentration in time of critical events is, the stronger their negative long-term relation to wellbeing, net of sociodemographic characteristics, the total number of events ever experienced, and the time since the last event. Furthermore, relevant gender and social origin differences emerged with a stronger negative association with wellbeing among men and respondents from low socioeconomic backgrounds. Our work clearly shows that simply counting the number of events gives only a partial and potentially inaccurate measure of the complexity of the life course and its relationship with quality of life. Not only how many events experienced matter but also the spacing between them.

Social Climate, Uncertainty and Fertility Intentions: from the Great Recession to the Covid-19 Crisis

The literature on fertility in context of crises considers major crises exclusively as economic experiences, however, they are also social phenomena, affecting communities, morality and social interactions. When changes in the social climate are of a sufficient magnitude, they tend to break down the social fabric and generate additional uncertainty, more of a social form, which may affect reproductive decisions beyond economic uncertainty alone. Applying Fixed Effects Models to 18 waves of the Swiss Household Panel (2004-2021), this study evaluates the relationship between changes in social climate and social uncertainty and first and second order childbearing intentions, net of economic uncertainty, sociodemographic determinants and unobserved time-invariant individual and local area characteristics. Canton-level mean and variance of generalized trust and optimism about the future are used as proxies of the quality and the unpredictability of the social climate respondents live in. Besides parity, the study explores period variation by comparing the time around the Great Recession (before, during and after) and the years around the Covid-19 pandemic. Results show that the worsening of the social climate and its growing uncertainty correlate with lower and more uncertain first and second birth intentions. Yet, important parity-period interactions emerge.

Employment Instability and Childbirth over the Last 20 Years in Italy

Family formation is fostered by circumstances of plannability and economic and social stability. Conversely, as documented in previous literature, employment instability can hamper fertility decisions. Based on data from the Italian Labour Force Survey, this paper examines the association between employment-related instability and the likelihood of having a first or additional child from 2000 to 2020 in Italy, covering a period characterised by increasing labour market deregulation. Our results show that individual employment instability, such as temporary employment or unemployment, negatively influences the likelihood of having a first and second child, while the progression to higher parities is less affected by employment situations. Building upon previous research, we demonstrate how the negative association between fertility and employment instability has intensified over recent decades, especially for women. The large sample size also allowed for the examination of specific differences by educational levels and both partners' employment situation. In contrast to traditional views about gender roles, the employment situation of one's partner seems to matter less for women than for men.

Employment Protection Legislation, Labour Market Dualism, and Fertility in Europe

Theoretically, whether a more loosely regulated labour market inhibits or fosters fertility in a society is ambiguous. Empirically, the few studies analysing the relationship between the strictness of employment protection legislation-the norms and procedures regulating labour markets' hiring and firing processes-and fertility have found mixed evidence. This paper reconciles the ambivalent conclusions of previous studies by analysing the impact of employment protection legislation and labour market dualism on total fertility across 19 European countries between 1990 and 2019. Our results indicate that an increase in employment protection for regular workers positively affects total fertility. Nonetheless, an increasing gap between the regulation of regular and temporary employment-that is, labour market dualism-negatively impacts total fertility. These effects, of small-to-moderate intensity, are relatively homogeneous across age groups and geographical areas and are especially pronounced among the lower educated. We conclude that labour market dualism, rather than a "rigid" employment protection legislation, discourages fertility.

Second Birth Fertility in Germany: Social Class, Gender, and the Role of Economic Uncertainty

Building on a thick strand of the literature on the determinants of higher-order births, this study uses a gender and class perspective to analyse second birth progression rates in Germany. Using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel from 1990 to 2020, individuals are classified based on their occupation into: upper service, lower service, skilled manual/higher-grade routine nonmanual, and semi-/unskilled manual/lower-grade routine nonmanual classes. Results highlight the "economic advantage" of men and women in service classes who experience strongly elevated second birth rates. Finally, we demonstrate that upward career mobility post-first birth is associated with higher second birth rates, particularly among men.

Gendered division of housework and childcare and women’s intention to have a second child in Spain

The Gender Revolution Theory forecasts a rise in fertility as gender equality increases and permeates the private sphere. However, empirical evidence across different societies has not always been conclusive, which suggests further research on the relationship between gender equality and fertility is needed. This research aims to assess the impact of the distribution of housework and childcare within the couple on one-child mothers’ fertility intentions in Spain. The educational expansion in recent decades has facilitated women’s mass entry into the workforce in this country. Nevertheless, the distribution of unpaid labour remains quite gendered and public support for families is scarce, making family/work balance challenging, especially for women. Using data from the 2018 Spanish Fertility Survey, the results suggest that when the distribution of housework is highly unbalanced between mothers and fathers, women are less likely to intend to have a second child. In contrast, unequal childcare workload does not substantially impact their intention to have a second child. Furthermore, whereas women’s satisfaction with the distribution of housework and childcare does not seem to moderate the effect of distribution, their education level slightly does. University-educated women are more likely to revise their fertility intentions downwards when the distribution is highly unequal.

Factors associated with fertility intentions among women living with and without human immunodeficiency virus in Zambia

BACKGROUND

Zambia is one of the countries in sub-Saharan Africa with a high prevalence of human immunodeficiency virus among women of reproductive age. Notably, the literature shows that human immunodeficiency virus status is one of the factors that influence fertility intention among women of reproductive age. With increased access, uptake and coverage of anti retroviral therapy, there is a need to understand the influence of human immunodeficiency virus status on fertility intentions of women of reproductive age in Zambia.

OBJECTIVES

The purpose of this study was to determine the fertility intentions of both mothers living with human immunodeficiency virus and mothers living without human immunodeficiency virus in Zambia.

DESIGN

This study adopted a cross-sectional design using data collected by the Zambia Demographic and Health Survey conducted in 2018. The study sample comprised 7983 mothers in the reproductive age (15-49 years), of which 6704 were mothers living without human immunodeficiency virus and 1279 were mothers living with human immunodeficiency virus.

METHODS

Here, we determined the fertility intentions of mothers living with human immunodeficiency virus and mothers living without human immunodeficiency virus using secondary data. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to determine the association of individual and household socio-demographic factors on fertility intentions of mothers living with human immunodeficiency virus and mothers living without human immunodeficiency virus in Zambia.

RESULTS

Fertility intention among mothers living with human immunodeficiency virus was 42.1% while that on mothers living without human immunodeficiency virus was 55.5%. Regardless of human immunodeficiency virus status, fertility intention reduced with increasing age. Mothers aged 35-49 years who were living with human immunodeficiency virus (adjusted odds ratio = 0.12, 95% confidence interval = 0.06-0.24) and mothers aged 35-49 years who were living without human immunodeficiency virus (adjusted odds ratio = 0.18, 95% confidence interval = 0.13-0.26) had lower odds of intention to have another child compared to mothers aged 15-24 years. Furthermore, married mothers living with human immunodeficiency virus and those living without human immunodeficiency virus had increased odds of intention of having another child (adjusted odds ratio = 2.52, 95% confidence interval = 1.36-4.66) and (adjusted odds ratio = 3.21, 95% confidence interval = 2.36-4.36), respectively.

CONCLUSION

The study has established that age, marital status, parity and employment status were associated with fertility intention among women living with and without human immunodeficiency virus. The results necessitate the need for enhanced maternal health education for mothers regardless of human immunodeficiency virus status. Furthermore, there is a need for continuous counselling for both women living with human immunodeficiency virus and without human immunodeficiency virus during their routine human immunodeficiency virus care, to improve and enhance pregnancy outcomes.

The impact of lockdowns during the COVID-19 pandemic on fertility intentions

Lockdown edicts during the COVID-19 pandemic have led to concerns about consequences for childbirth plans and decisions. Robust empirical research to either refute or confirm these concerns, however, is lacking. To evaluate the causal impact of lockdowns on fertility, we exploited a large sample of Australians (aged 18-45) from a nationally representative household panel survey and leveraged variation from a unique natural experiment that occurred in Australia in 2020: a lockdown imposed in the state of Victoria, but not elsewhere in Australia. Difference-in-differences models were estimated comparing changes in fertility intentions of persons who resided in Victoria during lockdown, or within four weeks of the lockdown being lifted, and those living elsewhere in Australia. Results revealed a significantly larger decline in reported intentions of having another child among women who lived through the protracted lockdown. The average effect was small, with fertility intentions estimated to fall by between 2.8% and 4.3% of the pre-pandemic mean. This negative effect was, however, more pronounced among those aged over 35 years, the less educated, and those employed on fixed-term contracts. Impacts on men's fertility intentions were generally negligible, but with a notable exception being Indigenous Australians.

Measuring the effect of employment uncertainty on fertility in low-fertility contexts: an overview of existing measures

Numerous studies aim to connect negative fertility desires and outcomes with employment conditions deemed to be uncertain. However, there is a lack of consensus about how to define, conceptualise, and measure employment uncertainty. This paper considers issues surrounding the conceptualisation of employment uncertainty. It then reviews existing measures of employment uncertainty in the context of fertility decisions. Finally, it raises considerations about their use. While some aspects of employment uncertainty are well studied, there are still gaps between theory and empirical evidence. Researchers should be aware of existing population heterogeneity, contextual factors, and model selection when considering their conceptualisation of employment uncertainty.

Fertility plans in the early times of the COVID-19 pandemic: The role of occupational and financial uncertainty in Italy

This study investigates the association between objective and subjective indicators of economic uncertainty, generated by the COVID-19 health and economic crisis, and young Italians' fertility plans during the 2020. We use unique repeated cross-sectional data, collected at different time points during the pandemic (March and October/November 2020) together with pre-COVID data (2016). The data offer a standard fertility intention question pre- and during-COVID, and also a direct question on whether pre-COVID fertility plans have been confirmed, postponed or abandoned. In March 2020, individuals with more vulnerable occupations show a lower probability of intending to have a(nother) child in the short-term and a higher probability of abandoning their pre-COVID fertility plan; in October 2020 changes in fertility plans do not vary by employment condition. Instead, both in March and October, those who suffered from a negative income shock and those with negative expectations on their future income and occupation are more likely to abandon their pre-pandemic fertility plan compared to their better off counterparts. Overall, economic uncertainty seems to have similarly affected men and women's fertility intentions. Our findings point to the fact that the unequal economic consequences of the pandemic also produced and will produce heterogeneous effects on fertility intentions.

Employment uncertainty and fertility intentions: Stability or resilience?

The role of employment uncertainty as a fertility driver has previously been studied with a limited set of constructs, leading to inconclusive results. We address this oversight by considering perceived stability of employment and perceived resilience to potential job loss as two key dimensions of employment uncertainty in relation to fertility decision-making. The present study relies on the 2017 Italian Trustlab survey and its employment uncertainty module. We find that perception of resilience to job loss is a powerful predictor of fertility intentions, whereas perception of employment stability has only a limited impact. The observed relationship between resilience and fertility intentions is robust to the inclusion of person-specific risk attitude and does not depend on the unemployment rate or the share of fixed-term contracts in the area of residence. We conclude that the notion of employment uncertainty includes distinct expectations towards the future, which should be considered separately to understand fertility decision-making.Supplementary material for this article is available at: https://doi.org/10.1080/00324728.2021.1939406.

Perceived Economic Uncertainty and Fertility Intentions in Couples: A Dyadic Extension of the Theory of Planned Behaviour

By adopting a dyadic extension of the Theory of Planned Behavior (Ajzen, 1991), this study examined whether perceived economic uncertainty affects fertility intentions. Three-hundred thirty one heterosexual couples living in Italy participated in a randomized between-group experimental study, in which we manipulated perceived economic uncertainty (low vs. high vs. control). The participants subsequently completed a questionnaire measuring their attitudes, subjective norms, perceived behavioral control, and fertility intentions. We employed Structural Equation Modelling in estimating the Actor-Partner Interdependence Model. The model showed a good fit to the data. Women's attitudes, subjective norms, and perceived behavioral control were influenced by the high economic uncertain scenario, whereas among men these variables were affected only by the positive economic scenario. Attitudes and perceived behavioral control were significant predictors of fertility intentions for both sexes. Significant partner effects were observed as well. These findings suggest that fertility plans should be examined by adopting a dyadic perspective, as individuals' intentions are affected not only by their own beliefs, but also by those of their partners.

Economic Precariousness and the Transition to Parenthood: A Dynamic and Multidimensional Approach

Economic precariousness has taken on a central role in explanations of the postponement of childbearing in developed societies. However, most studies conceptualize and operationalize precariousness as being static and one-dimensional, which provides only a partial perspective on the links between precariousness and fertility. In this paper, we study precariousness as a dynamic and multidimensional concept, distinguishing between past and current precariousness as well as between precariousness relating to income and to employment. Analyses are based on Dutch full-population register data. We select all inhabitants of the Netherlands who left education in 2006 and follow them until 2018. Event history analyses show that current and past income and employment precariousness all have independent negative effects on the first birth rate for men. Current and past employment precariousness and past income precariousness also reduce the first birth rate for women, but current income precariousness increases women's probability of first conception. When precariousness is both persistent and multidimensional, it is associated with a threefold decrease in the monthly probability of conceiving a first child for men and almost a halving of the probability for women. Our analyses show the need for going beyond static and one-dimensional analyses in order to understand how economic precariousness may affect fertility behaviour.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10680-022-09617-4.

Would Household Medical Expenditure Affect Chinese Citizens to Have More Children?

This research investigates how household medical expenditure affects Chinese citizens having more children. We examined the causal relationship and found a negative influence of household medical expenditure on the willingness to have more children, confirming that increasing household expenditure on medical care may specifically decrease the high willingness. Chinese policymakers should adopt appropriate and effective strategies to mitigate the potential negative effects of household medical expenditure on the birthrate. These analyses emphasize the importance of promoting economic growth, increasing public health expenditure, and increasing medical security in the context of population imbalance and the trend of a rapidly aging society in order to encourage people to have more children, thereby slowing population decline.

Economic Uncertainty, Cultural and Ideational Transition, and Low Fertility

Increased objective uncertainties, upward movement in the hierarchy of needs, and associated cultural and ideational transition are inherent to modern societies. These factors were previously treated as independent macro-shocks and studied separately, without regard for their interactions. In this paper, we provide an all-around framework to interpret fertility behavior and low fertility in developed economies, to compensate for the isolation of economic uncertainty from a cultural and ideational transition in previous empirical studies. In this regard, we conduct an empirical analysis of panel data of 34 OECD countries from 2000 to 2018, to discuss the impact of economic uncertainty on the fertility rate and the moderating effect of cultural and ideational transition on that impact. Below are our findings: (1) economic uncertainty significantly inhibits the fertility rate, and such an inhibiting effect is found to be underestimated after endogeneity is controlled; (2) according to heterogeneity analysis, the inhibiting effect of economic uncertainty on the fertility rate is stronger after the 2008 financial crisis and among low-income economies and countries where Confucianism is practiced; (3) a significant negative moderating effect of cultural and ideational transition on the relationship between economic uncertainty and fertility rate is observed, indicating that the inhibiting effect of structural dimensions that combine objective and subjective factors regarding the fertility rate may be self-reinforcing; and, (4) further tests show that economic uncertainty and cultural and ideational transition affect the fertility rate by means of the effect of delayed parenthood, the substitution of cohabitation for marriage, and fertility preferences. We find that fertility behavior is cumulatively affected by both economic uncertainty and cultural and ideational transition. This implies that reducing economic uncertainty and fostering a culture that encourages marriage and fertility are fundamental for increasing the fertility rate in China, a country resorting to the third-child policy to promote a fertility rebound.

Life-Course Trajectories of Childless Women: Country-Specific or Universal?

While existing research has documented complexities in biographies of childless women, few studies to date have systematically examined the life-course pathways of the childless from a comparative, cross-country perspective. In this paper, we analyse biographies of childless women in four countries-Germany, Italy, Poland, and the United States-in order to investigate whether pathways into childlessness are country-specific or commonly shared across institutional, cultural, and geographical settings. Partnership, education, and employment histories are examined using sequence analysis with dynamic Hamming distance and cluster analysis. Discrepancy analysis indicates a country-effect in women's biographies although life-course patterns identified in each country share similarities. Overall, seven life-course trajectories have been identified, with the most numerous cluster comprising single, working women who completed their education at a relatively young age. The results highlight a marked variation in the life-courses of childless women. Put together, these findings provide descriptive evidence for both country-specificity and cross-country similarity in the pathways to childlessness.

Female employment and first childbirth in Italy: what news?

In the last decades, female participation in the labour market has been found to be increasingly associated with higher fertility levels in high-income countries—albeit to a lesser extent in countries characterised by poor welfare support to working mothers. Among the latter camp, Italy is an intriguing case study, which is marked by lower female labour force participation and fertility rates when compared to most other European countries. Recent macro-level evidence suggests that a reverse in the female employment/fertility relationship is gradually taking place in Italy, driven largely by the Northern regions. However, the evolution of the relationship between female employment and fertility has (to the best of my knowledge) never been addressed at the micro-level. Through the use of individual-level retrospective data, this study analyses the link between female employment and fertility, paying special attention to differences between Northern and Southern Italy, and its evolution over time. The results suggest that female employment began to be positively associated to fertility at the individual level, both in Northern and Southern Italy (although to slightly different extents), from 2010 onwards.

Narratives of the Future Affect Fertility: Evidence from a Laboratory Experiment

In recent years, fertility rates have declined in most wealthy countries. This phenomenon has largely been explained by focusing on the rise of economic uncertainty. We contribute to this debate by arguing that, under uncertain conditions, narratives of the future-i.e., socially conveyed imagined futures-impact individuals' decision-making about childbearing. To assess this impact, we conducted (for the first time in fertility intention research) a controlled laboratory experiment in two contrasting settings: Florence (Italy, N = 800) and Oslo (Norway, N = 874). Individuals were randomly exposed to a specific positive or negative future economic scenario (treatments) and were compared with individuals who were not exposed to any scenario (control group). Participants were then asked whether they intended to have a child in the next three years. The results showed a clear causal impact of narratives of the future on fertility intentions among the participants. Moreover, when the actual economic condition at the macro- (country context) or micro-level (labor-market status and characteristics) was more favorable, negative narratives of the future played a more crucial role. Conversely, when the actual economic conditions were less favorable, positive narratives of the future proved especially important. We conclude that, in the era of global uncertainty, individuals respond to more than their actual situation and constraints; narratives of the future create a distance experience from the daily routine that plays a potent role by inhibiting or facilitating fertility decision-making.

Work and fertility in Taiwan: how do women's and men's career sequences associate with fertility outcomes?

There has been much debate over the micro-level relationship between employment situations and fertility in Europe and Northern America. However, related research in East Asia is scant, although countries in this region have some of the lowest fertility rates in the world. Moreover, most studies analyse the employment-fertility relationship from a static perspective and only for women, which underemphasises life course dynamics and gender heterogeneity of employment careers and their fertility implications. Drawing on retrospective data from the 2017 Taiwan Social Change Survey (TSCS), this study explores women's and men's career trajectories between ages 18 and 40 in Taiwan using sequence cluster analyses. It also examines how career variations associate with different timing and quantum of birth. Empirical results show that economically inactive women experience faster motherhood transitions and have more children by age 40 than women with stable full-time careers. For men, having an unstable career associates with slower fatherhood transitions and a lower number of children. For both genders, self-employed people are the earliest in parenthood transitions and have the highest number of children by midlife. Our findings demonstrate sharp gender contrasts in employment careers and their diversified fertility implications in low-fertility Taiwan.

The Gendered Relationship Between (Old and New Forms of) Employment Instability and Union Dissolution

The present study contributes to a more comprehensive understanding of the relation between employment instability and union dissolution. To address the oversights of previous research, we disentangle the effect of employment instability on union dissolution by: (i) considering not only the effect of joblessness, but also the type of employment contract; (ii) evaluating both status and the accumulation of instability over the life course; and (iii) detecting gender differences. We focus on Italy, applying event-history techniques to the most recent Italian Multipurpose Survey “Families, social subjects and life cycle” of 2016, observing cohorts from 1950 to 1986. Our results suggest that the effect of employment instability on union dissolution is gender-specific: joblessness and limited-time employment are facilitators for men’s dissolution, while, for women, joblessness is an inhibitor for dissolution, and time-limited and permanent employment do not substantially differ. We also highlight the crucial role of the persistence of instability in unpacking the association between employment instability and union dissolution. This paper advances—for the first time for Italy, at least—that men’s time-limited employment arrangements negatively affect a couple’s stability.

Resources, aspirations and first births during the Great Recession

Many studies show that labor market uncertainties are important predictors of the postponement of parenthood. While most existing studies investigate the consequences of the deterioration of employment conditions in absolute terms, in this paper I test the hypothesis that relative changes in occupational conditions affect childbearing choices. In particular, building on the Easterlin Hypothesis of resources and aspirations I investigate how intergenerational mobility among American men and women during the Great Recession affected their chances of becoming parents. Using respondents' labor market trajectories from the PSID 2003-2017 data, I show that when both men and women hold an occupational position as prestigious as that held by their parents when they were growing up, they are more likely to have a first child than when they hold a downward-mobile job. However, men and women differ in how this process is moderated by aggregate labor market conditions.

Employment Instability and Fertility in Europe: A Meta-Analysis

The relationship between employment instability and fertility is a major topic in demographic research, with a proliferation of published papers on this matter, especially since the Great Recession. Employment instability, which most often manifests in unemployment or time-limited employment, is usually deemed to have a negative effect on fertility, although different fertility reactions are hypothesized by sociological theories, and micro-level evidence is fragmented and contradictory. We used meta-analytic techniques to synthesize European research findings, offer general conclusions about the effects of employment instability on fertility (in terms of direction and size), and rank different sources of employment instability. Our results suggest that employment instability has a nonnegligible negative effect on fertility. Men's unemployment is more detrimental for fertility than men's time-limited employment; conversely, a woman having a fixed-term contract is least likely to have a child. Next, the negative effect of employment instability on fertility has become stronger over time, and is more severe in Southern European countries, where social protection for families and the unemployed is least generous. Finally, meta-regression estimates demonstrate that failing to account for income and partner characteristics leads to an overestimation of the negative effect of employment instability on fertility. We advance the role of these two factors as potential mechanisms by which employment instability affects fertility. Overall, this meta-analysis provides the empirical foundation for new studies on the topic.

The Great Recession and Fertility in Europe: A Sub-national Analysis

This study investigates how the changes in labour market conditions and economic growth were associated with fertility before and during the Great Recession in Europe in 2002-2014. In contrast to previous studies, which largely concentrated at the country level, we use data for 251 European regions in 28 European Union (EU) member states prior to the withdrawal of the United Kingdom in January 2020. We apply three-level growth-curve model which allows for a great deal of flexibility in modelling temporal change while controlling for variation in economic conditions across regions and countries. Our findings show that fertility decline was strongly related to unemployment increase; this relationship was significant at different reproductive ages. Deteriorating economic conditions were associated with a stronger decline in fertility during the economic recession as compared with the pre-recession period. This evidence suggests the salience of factors such as broader perception of uncertainty that we could not capture in our models and which rose to prominence during the Great Recession. Furthermore, strongest fertility declines were observed in Southern Europe, Ireland and parts of Central and Eastern Europe, i.e. countries and regions where labour market conditions deteriorated most during the recession period. In Western Europe, and especially in the Nordic countries, fertility rates were not closely associated with the recession indicators.

Fertility Intentions Within a 3-Year Time Frame: a Comparison Between Migrant and Native Italian Women

The body of literature on the fertility of migrants in Europe has grown significantly in recent decades. The focus has mostly been on analysing their actual behaviours, and reflection on other crucial aspects extensively analysed in studies on natives has been lacking. In particular, differences between migrants’ reproductive decision-making process and that of natives are currently understudied in the European context. We will focus on the association between demographic and socio-economic characteristics and fertility intentions, comparing native Italian and migrant women in Italy. We apply logistic regression models to analyse factors associated with strong intentions to have a child (or positive fertility intention) and strong intentions not to have a child (or negative fertility intention) in the short term. We use data from the Social Condition and Integration of Foreign Citizens survey on households with at least one foreign member and from the Italian Gender and Generation Survey, both carried out at the national level by the National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT). Net of controlled covariates, migrant women have both higher positive and lower negative fertility intentions within a 3-year time frame than native women do. However, the patterns of fertility intentions are different for natives and migrants as a function of age, educational level, marital status, parity, homeownership and, notably, labour market status. Focusing only on migrant women, we observe that fertility intentions vary by age at arrival and time since migration and that there are significant differences by country and geographical area of birth.

Is the effect of job uncertainty on fertility intentions channeled by subjective well-being?

This article combines two apparently distinct strands of contemporary research on fertility: the literature on economic uncertainty and fertility; and the literature on subjective well-being and fertility. We advance the hypothesis that the impact of jobs with uncertain conditions on fertility intentions is channeled by an individual's level of subjective well-being, which captures also unmeasured amenities of the job, including prestige, work-life balance, or welfare provision. To offer evidence for this hypothesis, we apply techniques of mediation analysis to data from two rounds of the European Social Survey (ESS 2004 and 2010). Our analysis suggested that the effect of jobs with uncertain conditions on fertility intentions depends on the level of subjective well-being: the negative effect is found only when subjective well-being is relatively low (i.e. life satisfaction levels equal or below six). Detailed results show that parents and older individuals have lower fertility intentions than childless and younger individuals when they have a job with uncertain conditions and a consequent low subjective well-being. We also found that - while the economic crisis was underway in 2010 - it was especially the deterioration in men's position in the labor market that was associated with lower fertility plans.

A reflection on economic uncertainty and fertility in Europe: The Narrative Framework

The generalized and relatively homogeneous fertility decline across European countries in the aftermath of the Great Recession poses serious challenges to our knowledge of contemporary low fertility patterns. In this paper, we argue that fertility decisions are not a mere "statistical shadow of the past", and advance the Narrative Framework, a new approach to the relationship between economic uncertainty and fertility. This framework proffers that individuals act according to or despite uncertainty based on their "narrative of the future" - imagined futures embedded in social elements and their interactions. We also posit that personal narratives of the future are shaped by the "shared narratives" produced by socialization agents, including parents and peers, as well as by the narratives produced by the media and other powerful opinion formers. Finally, within this framework, we propose several empirical strategies, from both a qualitative and a quantitative perspective, including an experimental approach, for assessing the role of narratives of the future in fertility decisions.

The impact of job uncertainty on first-birth postponement

This paper aims to advance our understanding of entry into employment with uncertain conditions in Italy and its causal impact on the onset of the fertility process. We adopt the potential outcome approach to causal inference so as to quantify the net effect of having a first job with a temporary or a permanent contract on the propensity to have a first child within the first five years of employment. The analysis is based on retrospective data from the nationally representative 2009 Family and Social Subjects survey. Our results suggest that 7% of potential first-birth postponement among women and 5% of potential postponement among men is attributable to jobs with uncertain conditions. These individuals would have had a first child if they had had a permanent job. For women, potential postponement is elevated among those with higher education (reaching 16%), while for men potential postponement is especially visible among those with low and medium education. With this paper we quantify a non-negligible negative effect for early exposure to labour market uncertainties on potential first-birth postponement in Italy.