2
|
Katz C, Randall JR, Sareen J, Chateau D, Walld R, Leslie WD, Wang J, Bolton JM. Predicting suicide with the SAD PERSONS scale. Depress Anxiety 2017; 34:809-816. [PMID: 28471534 DOI: 10.1002/da.22632] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/24/2016] [Revised: 03/09/2017] [Accepted: 03/14/2017] [Indexed: 12/16/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Suicide is a major public health issue, and a priority requirement is accurately identifying high-risk individuals. The SAD PERSONS suicide risk assessment scale is widely implemented in clinical settings despite limited supporting evidence. This article aims to determine the ability of the SAD PERSONS scale (SPS) to predict future suicide in the emergency department. METHODS Five thousand four hundred sixty-two consecutive adults were seen by psychiatry consultation teams in two tertiary emergency departments with linkage to population-based administrative data to determine suicide deaths within 6 months, 1, and 5 years. RESULTS Seventy-seven (1.4%) individuals died by suicide during the study period. When predicting suicide at 12 months, medium- and high-risk scores on SPS had a sensitivity of 49% and a specificity of 60%; the positive and negative predictive values were 0.9 and 99%, respectively. Half of the suicides at both 6- and 12-month intervals were classified as low risk by SPS at index visit. The area under the curve at 12 months for the Modified SPS was 0.59 (95% confidence interval [CI] range 0.51-0.67). High-risk scores (compared to low risk) were significantly associated with death by suicide over the 5-year study period using the SPS (hazard ratio 2.49; 95% CI 1.34-4.61) and modified version (hazard ratio 2.29; 95% CI 1.24-2.29). CONCLUSIONS Although widely used in educational and clinical settings, these findings do not support the use of the SPS and Modified SPS to predict suicide in adults seen by psychiatric services in the emergency department.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Cara Katz
- Department of Psychiatry, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada
| | - Jason R Randall
- Department of Community Health Sciences, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada
| | - Jitender Sareen
- Department of Psychiatry, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada.,Department of Community Health Sciences, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada.,Department of Psychology, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada
| | - Dan Chateau
- Department of Psychology, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada.,Manitoba Centre for Health Policy, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada
| | - Randy Walld
- Manitoba Centre for Health Policy, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada
| | - William D Leslie
- Manitoba Centre for Health Policy, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada.,Department of Medicine, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada
| | - JianLi Wang
- Department of Psychiatry, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta, Canada.,Department of Community Health Sciences, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta, Canada
| | - James M Bolton
- Department of Psychiatry, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada.,Department of Community Health Sciences, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada.,Department of Psychology, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada.,Manitoba Centre for Health Policy, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada
| |
Collapse
|
3
|
Carter G, Milner A, McGill K, Pirkis J, Kapur N, Spittal MJ. Predicting suicidal behaviours using clinical instruments: systematic review and meta-analysis of positive predictive values for risk scales. Br J Psychiatry 2017; 210:387-395. [PMID: 28302700 DOI: 10.1192/bjp.bp.116.182717] [Citation(s) in RCA: 208] [Impact Index Per Article: 29.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/07/2016] [Revised: 10/16/2016] [Accepted: 11/16/2016] [Indexed: 01/17/2023]
Abstract
BackgroundPrediction of suicidal behaviour is an aspirational goal for clinicians and policy makers; with patients classified as 'high risk' to be preferentially allocated treatment. Clinical usefulness requires an adequate positive predictive value (PPV).AimsTo identify studies of predictive instruments and to calculate PPV estimates for suicidal behaviours.MethodA systematic review identified studies of predictive instruments. A series of meta-analyses produced pooled estimates of PPV for suicidal behaviours.ResultsFor all scales combined, the pooled PPVs were: suicide 5.5% (95% CI 3.9-7.9%), self-harm 26.3% (95% CI 21.8-31.3%) and self-harm plus suicide 35.9% (95% CI 25.8-47.4%). Subanalyses on self-harm found pooled PPVs of 16.1% (95% CI 11.3-22.3%) for high-quality studies, 32.5% (95% CI 26.1-39.6%) for hospital-treated self-harm and 26.8% (95% CI 19.5-35.6%) for psychiatric in-patients.ConclusionsNo 'high-risk' classification was clinically useful. Prevalence imposes a ceiling on PPV. Treatment should reduce exposure to modifiable risk factors and offer effective interventions for selected subpopulations and unselected clinical populations.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Gregory Carter
- Gregory Carter, MBBS, Cert Child Psych, PhD, FRANZCP, Centre for Brain and Mental Health Research, University of Newcastle, New South Wales, Australia; Allison Milner, BJPsych (Hons), MEpi, PhD, Population Health Strategic Research Centre, Deakin University, Burwood, and Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia; Katie McGill, MPsych (Clin), DClinPsych, Centre for Brain and Mental Health Research, University of Newcastle, New South Wales, Australia; Jane Pirkis, MPsych, MAppEpid, PhD, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia; Nav Kapur, MBChB, MMedSci, MD, FRCPsych, Centre for Suicide Prevention, Manchester Academic Health Science Centre, University of Manchester, and Greater Manchester Mental Health NHS Foundation Trust, Manchester, UK; Matthew J. Spittal, MBiostat, PhD, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia
| | - Allison Milner
- Gregory Carter, MBBS, Cert Child Psych, PhD, FRANZCP, Centre for Brain and Mental Health Research, University of Newcastle, New South Wales, Australia; Allison Milner, BJPsych (Hons), MEpi, PhD, Population Health Strategic Research Centre, Deakin University, Burwood, and Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia; Katie McGill, MPsych (Clin), DClinPsych, Centre for Brain and Mental Health Research, University of Newcastle, New South Wales, Australia; Jane Pirkis, MPsych, MAppEpid, PhD, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia; Nav Kapur, MBChB, MMedSci, MD, FRCPsych, Centre for Suicide Prevention, Manchester Academic Health Science Centre, University of Manchester, and Greater Manchester Mental Health NHS Foundation Trust, Manchester, UK; Matthew J. Spittal, MBiostat, PhD, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia
| | - Katie McGill
- Gregory Carter, MBBS, Cert Child Psych, PhD, FRANZCP, Centre for Brain and Mental Health Research, University of Newcastle, New South Wales, Australia; Allison Milner, BJPsych (Hons), MEpi, PhD, Population Health Strategic Research Centre, Deakin University, Burwood, and Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia; Katie McGill, MPsych (Clin), DClinPsych, Centre for Brain and Mental Health Research, University of Newcastle, New South Wales, Australia; Jane Pirkis, MPsych, MAppEpid, PhD, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia; Nav Kapur, MBChB, MMedSci, MD, FRCPsych, Centre for Suicide Prevention, Manchester Academic Health Science Centre, University of Manchester, and Greater Manchester Mental Health NHS Foundation Trust, Manchester, UK; Matthew J. Spittal, MBiostat, PhD, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia
| | - Jane Pirkis
- Gregory Carter, MBBS, Cert Child Psych, PhD, FRANZCP, Centre for Brain and Mental Health Research, University of Newcastle, New South Wales, Australia; Allison Milner, BJPsych (Hons), MEpi, PhD, Population Health Strategic Research Centre, Deakin University, Burwood, and Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia; Katie McGill, MPsych (Clin), DClinPsych, Centre for Brain and Mental Health Research, University of Newcastle, New South Wales, Australia; Jane Pirkis, MPsych, MAppEpid, PhD, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia; Nav Kapur, MBChB, MMedSci, MD, FRCPsych, Centre for Suicide Prevention, Manchester Academic Health Science Centre, University of Manchester, and Greater Manchester Mental Health NHS Foundation Trust, Manchester, UK; Matthew J. Spittal, MBiostat, PhD, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia
| | - Nav Kapur
- Gregory Carter, MBBS, Cert Child Psych, PhD, FRANZCP, Centre for Brain and Mental Health Research, University of Newcastle, New South Wales, Australia; Allison Milner, BJPsych (Hons), MEpi, PhD, Population Health Strategic Research Centre, Deakin University, Burwood, and Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia; Katie McGill, MPsych (Clin), DClinPsych, Centre for Brain and Mental Health Research, University of Newcastle, New South Wales, Australia; Jane Pirkis, MPsych, MAppEpid, PhD, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia; Nav Kapur, MBChB, MMedSci, MD, FRCPsych, Centre for Suicide Prevention, Manchester Academic Health Science Centre, University of Manchester, and Greater Manchester Mental Health NHS Foundation Trust, Manchester, UK; Matthew J. Spittal, MBiostat, PhD, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia
| | - Matthew J Spittal
- Gregory Carter, MBBS, Cert Child Psych, PhD, FRANZCP, Centre for Brain and Mental Health Research, University of Newcastle, New South Wales, Australia; Allison Milner, BJPsych (Hons), MEpi, PhD, Population Health Strategic Research Centre, Deakin University, Burwood, and Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia; Katie McGill, MPsych (Clin), DClinPsych, Centre for Brain and Mental Health Research, University of Newcastle, New South Wales, Australia; Jane Pirkis, MPsych, MAppEpid, PhD, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia; Nav Kapur, MBChB, MMedSci, MD, FRCPsych, Centre for Suicide Prevention, Manchester Academic Health Science Centre, University of Manchester, and Greater Manchester Mental Health NHS Foundation Trust, Manchester, UK; Matthew J. Spittal, MBiostat, PhD, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia
| |
Collapse
|