Predictors of sustained virologic response in hepatitis C genotype 4: beyond the usual suspects

Serum Alpha-fetoprotein Levels and Response to Direct Antiviral Therapy in Patients with Chronic Hepatitis C: Real-world Results from 1716 Patients in Egypt

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Direct Antiretroviral Agents (DAAs), sofosbuvir-based therapies, have opened a new era in the treatment of chronic HCV infection. The aim of the study was to investigate the potential use of baseline and in serial serum, AFP levels as a predictor for response to DAAs in patients with Chronic Hepatitis C.

METHODS

This multicenter observational study was carried out on 1716 chronic hepatitis C virusinfected patients who received direct anti-viral drugs for 12 weeks. The primary end point was sustained virological response at 12 weeks after the end of treatment determined by quantitative PCR for HCV RNA. Serum AFP was quantitatively assessed at baseline then after 12week after stoppage of treatment (SVR12).

RESULTS

SVR12 rate was 97.8%. Elevated serum AFP was significantly higher in non -SVR group p value (<0.001). There was a significantly marked decrease in AFP after treatment in comparison to pretreatment values. The multivariate logistic regression analysis on the resulting significant variable from the univariate analysis revealed that only AFP was significantly related to the response to direct antiviral therapy in patients with chronic hepatitis C with p <0.001, OR 1.10 (95% CI 1.07:1.12). Other sociodemographic (e.g. Age, gender, BMI, ..) or laboratory factors (Hb, ANC, WBCs, …) did not show any significant association with the patients' response to treatment.

CONCLUSIONS

Serum AFP levels were a predictor for response in patients with chronic HCV with the administration of direct antiviral drugs.

Predictors of Virological Response in 3,235 Chronic HCV Egyptian Patients Treated with Peginterferon Alpha-2a Compared with Peginterferon Alpha-2b Using Statistical Methods and Data Mining Techniques

Despite the appearance of new oral antiviral drugs, pegylated interferon (PEG-IFN)/RBV may remain the standard of care therapy for some time, and several viral and host factors are reported to be correlated with therapeutic effects. This study aimed to reveal the independent variables associated with failure of sustained virological response (SVR) to PEG-IFN alpha-2a versus PEG-IFN alpha-2b in treatment of naive chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) Egyptian patients using both statistical methods and data mining techniques. This retrospective cohort study included 3,235 chronic hepatitis C patients enrolled in a large Egyptian medical center: 1,728 patients had been treated with PEG-IFN alpha-2a plus ribavirin (RBV) and 1,507 patients with PEG-IFN alpha-2b plus RBV between 2007 and 2011. Both multivariate analysis and Reduced Error Pruning Tree (REPTree)-based model were used to reveal the independent variables associated with treatment response. In both treatment types, alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) >10 ng/mL and HCV viremia >600 × 10(3) IU/mL were the independent baseline variables associated with failure of SVR, while male gender, decreased hemoglobin, and thyroid-stimulating hormone were the independent variables associated with good response (P < 0.05). Using REPTree-based model showed that low AFP was the factor of initial split (best predictor) of response for either PEG-IFN alpha-2a or PEG-IFN alpha-2b (cutoff value 8.53, 4.89 ng/mL, AUROC = 0.68 and 0.61, P = 0.05). Serum AFP >10 ng/mL and viral load >600 × 10(3) IU/mL are variables associated with failure of response in both treatment types. REPTree-based model could be used to assess predictors of response.

IP-10 Serum Level in Chronic Hepatitis C Virus Patients: Relation to Fibrosis and Response to Combined Interferon/Ribavirin Therapy

Despite the appearance of the direct acting antiviral drugs, pegylated interferon/ribavirin (PEG-IFN/RBV) still has a place in the standard of care (SOC) therapy for chronic HCV4. Studies were conducted to find an accurate prediction in response to SOC therapy. Pretreatment serum interferon-γ-inducible protein-10 (IP-10) is an independent predictive factor of sustained virological response (SVR) in HCV1-infected patients. To assess whether the pretreatment serum level of IP-10 influences hepatic fibrosis and PEG-IFN/RBV therapy response, a study was conducted on 88 chronic Hepatitis C virus (HCV) patients who received PEG-IFN/RBV. Patients were subjected to a pretreatment routine laboratory evaluation, liver biopsy, and serum IP-10 assessment. They were followed up for 6 months after cessation of therapy (week 72). Patients were classified into 3 groups according to their response; nonresponders, relapsers, or sustained virological responders. The relation of pretreatment IP-10 with fibrosis and response was assessed. The studied groups were matched regarding their demographic data. There was no statistically significant association between the pretreatment IP-10 level and fibrosis (P=0.86) and no relation to response was found at week 12, 24, 48, and 72 (P=0.58, 0.8, 0.47, and 0.43, respectively). Pretreatment IP-10 could not predict either fibrosis or response to PEG-IFN/RIB therapy in chronic HCV Egyptian patients.

Hepatic fibrosis and serum alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) as predictors of response to HCV treatment and factors associated with serum AFP normalisation after treatment

BACKGROUND AND STUDY AIM

Elevated levels of alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) can be seen in patients with chronic hepatitis C (CHC) and liver cirrhosis without hepatocellular carcinoma and were negatively associated with treatment response. However, factors associated with its changes are not identified. We aimed in this study to verify a cut-off value for AFP as a predictor of response to standard of care (SOC) antiviral therapy in Egyptian chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV)-infected patients and identify factors associated with its changes post treatment.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

A total of 175 chronic non-cirrhotic HCV-infected patients were evaluated for baseline serum AFP and liver biopsy were classified according to Ishak scoring system of hepatic fibrosis. All patients were scheduled to receive SOC antiviral therapy for 48weeks and had been followed up to week 72. Reassessment of AFP and repeated liver biopsy at week 72 were feasible only in 79 patients.

RESULTS

High baseline AFP levels were observed in non-respondents (non-sustained virological respondents (non-SVRs)) (P<0.01); the AFP level decreased in all patients post treatment (P=0.01), especially in the SVRs (P<0.01). In multivariate analysis, hepatic fibrosis was a predictor of response to treatment (P=0.02), while body mass index (BMI) (25-30kgm(-2)), hepatic activity (A2), hepatic fibrosis stage (F2-F4) and fibrosis improvement were predictors of AFP difference (P=0.007, 0.01, 0.012, <0.001, 0.030, and 0.018), respectively. The diagnostic performance to predict the HCV treatment response was best by adding both AFP and hepatic fibrosis stage factors; the best cut-off value for AFP was 3.57ngdl(-1) with 50% sensitivity and 68% specificity with area under the curve (AUC) of 0.55 and for hepatic fibrosis stage was 3, with a sensitivity of 88%, a specificity of 30% with an AUC of 0.58.

CONCLUSION

In chronic HCV-infected patients, serum AFP below 3.57ngdl(-1) and hepatic fibrosis ⩽stage 3 are expected to have good response to treatment; BMI (25-30kgm(-1)), A2, fibrosis >2 and fibrosis improvement predict AFP change post treatment.

Prediction of sustained virologic responses to combination therapy of pegylated interferon-α and ribavirin in patients with chronic hepatitis C infection

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is a major health problem worldwide. Genotype-4 is the most common genotype in Saudi Arabia. The response to treatment with pegylated interferon-α combined with ribavirin in chronic HCV infection varies. This study aimed at investigating the pre- and on-treatment predictors of sustained virologic response (SVR) in patients with chronic hepatitis C (CHC) infection.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Clinical data of 48 patients with CHC treated with standard HCV antiviral combination therapy, between January 2005 and December 2010, at a Saudi University hospital, were retrospectively reviewed for age, sex, body mass index, liver enzymes, HCV-RNA viral load, liver biopsy, and response to treatment. The primary end point was SVR defined as undetectable HCV-RNA by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) 24 weeks after the end of treatment. Univariable logistic regression was used to explore the association between the different variables and SVR. These independent predictors of SVR were then analyzed with multivariable logistic regression analysis.

RESULTS

Of the 48 treated patients, 25 (52%) were females and 27 (56%) were Saudi. The mean age was 43 years (43 ± 10 years). Twenty-four (50%) had genotype-4, and 26 (54%) had liver biopsy. The overall SVR rate was 75% (36/48) and was 83.3% (20/24) among genotype-4 patients. Baseline factors associated with SVR identified by univariate logistic regression were genotype-4 and early viral response (EVR), defined as a drop of ≥2 log in serum HCV viral load after 12 weeks of initiation of combination therapy (P = 0.001). However, in stepwise regression analysis, the independent factor associated with the effect of antiviral therapy was genotype-4. When on-treatment variables were included, EVR (P = 0.003) and low baseline viral load (P = 0.048) were highly predictive of SVR.

CONCLUSIONS

Of our HCV-treated patients, 75% had SVR. HCV genotype-4, EVR, and low baseline viral load were predictive of SVR.

Prediction of sustained virologic responses to combination therapy of pegylated interferon-α and ribavirin in patients with chronic hepatitis C infection

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is a major health problem worldwide. Genotype-4 is the most common genotype in Saudi Arabia. The response to treatment with pegylated interferon-α combined with ribavirin in chronic HCV infection varies. This study aimed at investigating the pre- and on-treatment predictors of sustained virologic response (SVR) in patients with chronic hepatitis C (CHC) infection.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Clinical data of 48 patients with CHC treated with standard HCV antiviral combination therapy, between January 2005 and December 2010, at a Saudi University hospital, were retrospectively reviewed for age, sex, body mass index, liver enzymes, HCV-RNA viral load, liver biopsy, and response to treatment. The primary end point was SVR defined as undetectable HCV-RNA by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) 24 weeks after the end of treatment. Univariable logistic regression was used to explore the association between the different variables and SVR. These independent predictors of SVR were then analyzed with multivariable logistic regression analysis.

RESULTS

Of the 48 treated patients, 25 (52%) were females and 27 (56%) were Saudi. The mean age was 43 years (43 ± 10 years). Twenty-four (50%) had genotype-4, and 26 (54%) had liver biopsy. The overall SVR rate was 75% (36/48) and was 83.3% (20/24) among genotype-4 patients. Baseline factors associated with SVR identified by univariate logistic regression were genotype-4 and early viral response (EVR), defined as a drop of ≥2 log in serum HCV viral load after 12 weeks of initiation of combination therapy (P = 0.001). However, in stepwise regression analysis, the independent factor associated with the effect of antiviral therapy was genotype-4. When on-treatment variables were included, EVR (P = 0.003) and low baseline viral load (P = 0.048) were highly predictive of SVR.

CONCLUSIONS

Of our HCV-treated patients, 75% had SVR. HCV genotype-4, EVR, and low baseline viral load were predictive of SVR.