Worldwide trends in breast cancer incidence from 1993 to 2012: Age-period-cohort analysis and joinpoint regression

Lung cancer incidence and mortality in trend and prediction between 2012-2030 in Shandong Province, using a Bayesian age-period-cohort model

Objectives

Lung cancer is one of the most common cancers in Shandong Province, China. Projecting future cancer trend is crucial for planning cancer control. We aimed to examine the trend of lung cancer incidence and mortality from 2012 to 2023, and predict the lung cancer burden to 2030 in Shandong.

Methods

Data of lung cancer incidence and mortality from 2012 to 2023 were obtained from the Shandong Cancer Registries. The average annual percentage change (AAPC) was used to quantify the trend of the lung cancer age-standardised rate using Joinpoint software. Bayesian age-period-cohort model was used to predict lung cancer incidence and mortality from 2024 to 2030.

Results

The age-standardised incidence rate (ASIR) remained stable from 2012 to 2023. The ASIR in males decreased with an AAPC of -1.350%, while the ASIR in females increased with an AAPC of 2.429%. The age-standardised mortality rate (ASMR) decreased with an AAPC of -2.911%. This trend was also observed in males (AAPC=-2.513%), females (AAPC=-3.632%), urban areas (AAPC=-3.267%) and rural areas (AAPC=-2.603%). For our predictions, the ASIR will increase to 49.21 per 100,000 until 2030, with an AAPC of 1.873%. This upward trend is expected for females and urban areas, with an AAPC of 4.496% and 4.176%, while it is not observed for males and rural areas. The ASMR is expected to remain stable up to 2030, and this trend will maintain both in males and females. The ASMR will exhibit an upward trend (AAPC=1.100%) in urban areas and a downward trend (AAPC=-0.915%) in rural areas.

Conclusion

The ASIR of lung cancer will increase until 2030, while the ASMR of lung cancer is expected to remain stable in Shandong. It is necessary to take further preventive measures such as strengthening tobacco control, enhancing health education and expanding screening efforts.

Comparative age-period-cohort analysis

BACKGROUND

Cancer surveillance researchers analyze incidence or mortality rates jointly indexed by age group and calendar period using age-period-cohort models. Many studies consider age- and period-specific rates in two or more strata defined by sex, race/ethnicity, etc. A comprehensive characterization of trends and patterns within each stratum can be obtained using age-period-cohort (APC) estimable functions (EF). However, currently available approaches for joint analysis and synthesis of EF are limited.

METHODS

We develop a new method called Comparative Age-Period-Cohort Analysis to quantify similarities and differences of EF across strata. Comparative Analysis identifies whether the stratum-specific hazard rates are proportional by age, period, or cohort.

RESULTS

Proportionality imposes natural constraints on the EF that can be exploited to gain efficiency and simplify the interpretation of the data. Comparative Analysis can also identify differences or diversity in proportional relationships between subsets of strata ("pattern heterogeneity"). We present three examples using cancer incidence from the United States Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program: non-malignant meningioma by sex; multiple myeloma among men stratified by race/ethnicity; and in situ melanoma by anatomic site among white women.

CONCLUSIONS

For studies of cancer rates with from two through to around 10 strata, which covers many outstanding questions in cancer surveillance research, our new method provides a comprehensive, coherent, and reproducible approach for joint analysis and synthesis of age-period-cohort estimable functions.

Trend and projection of larynx cancer incidence and mortality in China from 1990 to 2044: A Bayesian age-period-cohort modeling study

BACKGROUND

Larynx cancer is one of the most common cancers in head and neck, and imposes heavy burden on individual and societies. A comprehensive understanding of the burden of larynx cancer is necessary to improve prevention and control strategies. However, the secular trend of larynx cancer incidence and mortality in China remains unclear.

METHODS

The incidence and deaths rates of larynx cancer from 1990 to 2019 were collected from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 database. The temporal trend of larynx cancer was analyzed using a joinpoint regression model. The age-period-cohort model was used to explore the age, period, and cohort effects on larynx cancer and predict future trends up to 2044.

RESULTS

From 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized incidence rate of larynx cancer in China increased by 1.3% (95% CI 1.1 to 1.5) in males, but decreased by 0.5% (95% CI -0.1 to 0) in females. The age-standardized mortality rate of larynx cancer in China decreased by 0.9% (95% CI -1.1 to -0.6) and 2.2% (95% CI -2.8 to -1.7) in males and females, respectively. Among the four risk factors, smoking and alcohol use contributed to a heavier burden compared to occupational exposure to asbestos and sulfuric acid with respect to mortality. Age effects showed that the incidence and deaths of larynx cancer were concentrated in people older than 50 years old. Period effects exerted the most significant effect on larynx cancer incidence for males. In terms of cohort effects, people born in the earlier cohorts presented a higher risk of larynx cancer compared with the later cohorts. From 2020 to 2044, the age-standardized incidence rates of larynx cancer continued to increase in males, whereas the age-standardized mortality rates continued to decrease in both males and females.

CONCLUSION

The burden of larynx cancer in China has a significant gender difference. The age-standardized incidence rates will continue to increase in males up to 2044. The disease pattern and risk factors of larynx cancer should be comprehensively studied to promote the development of timely intervention measures and relieve the burden effectively.

Trends in Incidence Rates, Mortality Rates, and Age-Period-Cohort Effects of Female Breast Cancer - China, 2003-2017

Introduction

This study reported the trends in female breast cancer incidence and mortality rates in China, and analyzed the corresponding age-period-cohort effects.

Methods

Data from 22 population-based cancer registries in China between 2003 and 2017 were analyzed. Age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR) and mortality rates (ASMR) were calculated using Segi's world standard population. Joinpoint regression was employed to evaluate trends, and age-period-cohort effects were examined using the intrinsic estimator method.

Results

The ASIR for female breast cancer exhibited a more rapid increase in rural areas compared to urban areas across all age groups. The most substantial increase was observed in the 20-34 age group in rural areas [annual percent change (APC)=9.0%, 95% confidence interval (CI): 7.0%-11.0%, P<0.001]. The ASMR for females under 50 years old remained stable from 2003 to 2017 in both urban and rural areas. However, the ASMR for females over 50 in rural areas and those over 65 in urban areas demonstrated a significant increase, with the most pronounced increase observed among females over 65 in rural areas (APC=4.9%, 95% CI: 2.8%-7.0%, P<0.001). Age-period-cohort analysis revealed increasing period effects and decreasing cohort effects for female breast cancer incidence and mortality rates in both urban and rural settings. Notably, the cohort effect for incidence displayed a slight upward trend for females born between 1983 and 1992 in rural areas.

Conclusions

Our study revealed a rapid increase in breast cancer incidence among younger generations and an accelerated mortality rate in older populations residing in rural areas. To effectively address the growing burden of female breast cancer in China, it is essential to develop and implement targeted intervention strategies.

Association between serum Vitamin D levels and prognostic factors in nonmetastatic breast cancer patients

Background:

Breast cancer is among the most common malignancies in women around the world. There is evidence of high prevalence of serum/blood Vitamin D deficiency in Iranian women. Considering the multitude of factors that may be involved in the prognosis and lifespan of breast cancer patients, this study investigated the level of Vitamin D in Iranian patients with nonmetastatic breast cancer.

Materials and Methods:

This cross-sectional study was carried out on 214 women diagnosed with breast cancer, who were referred to the radio-oncology department. Serum Vitamin D level of the patients was measured. Prognostic factors were determined based on demographic and pathological characteristics. The results were analyzed using descriptive statistics tests, Chi-square, one-way analysis of variance, Kaplan–Meier, and Cox regression model in SPSS v22. For all cases, the significance level was considered to be P < 0.05.

Results:

The total mean of 25-hydroxyvitamin D serum level was 25.15 ± 17.68 ng/ml. There was no significant relationship between levels of Vitamin D with disease stage, tumor size, tumor grade, estrogen receptor, progesterone receptor, and Human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (P > 0.05). The mean survival time was 5 years and 45 days.

Conclusion:

No relationship was found between serum Vitamin D levels and the factors affecting the prognosis of nonmetastatic breast cancer. The Cox analysis showed that the survival time was not influenced by Vitamin D as a prognosis factor.

Temporal Trends in the Incidence and Disability Adjusted Life Years of Schizophrenia in China Over 30 Years

BACKGROUND

Schizophrenia is an important public health problem in China. This study aims to assess the long-term trends in the incidence and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rate of schizophrenia in China between 1990 and 2019.

METHODS

The incidence and DALYs data were drawn from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, and an age-period-cohort model was used in the analysis.

RESULTS

The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and age-standardized DALYs rate (ASDR) of schizophrenia increased by 0.3 and 3.7% for both sexes between 1990 and 2019. For males, the local drift for incidence was higher than 0 (P < 0.05) in those aged 10 to 29 years (local drifts, 0.01 to 0.26%) and lower than 0 (P < 0.05) in those aged 35 to 74 years (local drifts, -1.01 to -0.06%). For females, the local drift was higher than 0 (P < 0.05) in those aged 10 to 34 years (local drifts, 0.05 to 0.26%) and lower than 0 (P < 0.05) in those aged 40 to 74 years (local drifts, -0.86 to -0.11%). The local drift for DALYs rate was higher than 0 (P < 0.05) in the age group from 10 to 69 years (local drifts, 0.06 to 0.26% for males and 0.06 to 0.28% for females). The estimated period and cohort relative risks (RR) for DALYs rate of schizophrenia were found in monotonic upward patterns, and the cohort RR for the incidence increased as the birth cohort moved forward starting with those born in 1972.

CONCLUSION

Although the crude incidence of schizophrenia has decreased in China, the ASIR, ASDR, and crude DALYs rate all showed a general increasing trend over the last three decades. The DALYs rate continue to increase as the birth cohort moved forward, and the increasing trend of incidence was also found in individuals born after 1972. More efforts are needed to promote mental health in China.

Correlation Analysis of Breast and Thyroid Nodules: A Cross-Sectional Study

Objective

Based on physical examination, to explore the relationship between breast mass (BM) and thyroid nodule (TN) prevalence, and to further explore other related factors that affect the occurrence of BM and TN.

Methods

From January 1, 2018, to January 1, 2021, 12,538 female subjects received breast and thyroid ultrasound examinations at the same time in the health examination center of the Affiliated Hospital of North Sichuan Medical College. Univariate analysis and multivariate logistic analysis were used to screen the relevant factors affecting TN and BM, and propensity score matching was used to further verify the results of the relationship between breast and thyroid.

Results

A total of 4975 (39.7%) of the included subjects have BM and a total of 6315 (50.4%) have TN,2557 (20.4%) had both BM and TN. The logistic regression results show that patients with TN are more likely to suffer from BM [OR = 1.185, 95% CI (1.099-1.278), p<0.0001]. In addition, age, free T4, HDL, height, BMI, systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, and albumin are independent factors affecting the occurrence of BM; patients with BM are more likely to have TN [OR = 1.180, 95% CI (1.094-1.272), p<0.0001], and age, free T3, free T4, AST, ALT, albumin, height, and BMI are independent influencing factors on the occurrence of TN. The result of propensity score matching confirmed the relationship between BM and TN.

Conclusion

There is a bidirectional pathogenic relationship between BM and TN, women with BM are at increased risk of TN, and women with TN are more likely to have BM. Thyroid hormone is not only related to the occurrence of TN but also affects the occurrence of BM.