Predicting recurrence and progression of non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer in Korean patients: a comparison of the EORTC and CUETO models

Predicting Recurrence and Progression in Patients with Non-Muscle-Invasive Bladder Cancer: Systematic Review on the Performance of Risk Stratification Models

BACKGROUND

Several classifications have been reported to stratify non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC) in risk groups according to the probability of recurrence and progression.

OBJECTIVE

To systematically review the current evidence regarding risk stratification of NMIBC.

METHODS

The systematic review was performed in accordance with the PRISMA statement. Studies providing data on development and/or external validation cohorts of models and risk stratification tables for recurrence and/or progression for patients with NMIBC, reporting at least one discrimination measure (AUC or C-Index) were included.

RESULTS

Twenty-five studies involving 22,737 patients were included. Six classifications were identified, three of them were predictive models (EORTC, CUETO, EAU 2021) and three were based on expert opinion (EAU 2020, AUA, NCCN). A high risk of bias was present in the majority of the studies. Certain heterogenicity was found among the studies regarding adjuvant therapy, postoperative instillation or second resection. The definition of oncological outcomes was not standardized in the included studies. CUETO and EORTC scoring systems are the most validated. In general, validations showed a poor discrimination capability to predict recurrence, slightly better for progression. The EAU 2021 model overestimates the risk of progression in patients treated with BCG. Carcinoma in situ is underrepresented in all the studies analyzed.

CONCLUSIONS

The existing classifications show poor discrimination capability for recurrence and possibly helpful discrimination capability for progression in NMIBC patients. These results highlight the unmet need to develop novel accurate risk models for patients with NMIBC, which could be improved with the combination of clinicopathological and molecular information.

Recurrence in Non-Muscle Invasive Bladder Cancer Patients: External Validation of the EORTC, CUETO and EAU Risk Tables and Towards a Non-Linear Survival Model

BACKGROUND: EORTC, CUETO and EAU are the most commonly used risk stratification models for recurrence and progression in non-muscle invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC). OBJECTIVE: We assessed the predictive value of the EORTC, CUETO and EAU risk group stratification methods for our population and explore options to improve the predictive value using Cox Proportional Hazards (CPH), Boosted Cox regression and a non-linear Random Survival Forest (RSF) model. MATERIALS: Our retrospective database included of 452 NMIBC patients who underwent a transurethral resection of bladder tumor (TURBT) between 2000 and 2018 in our hospital. The cumulative incidence of recurrence was calculated at one- and five-years for all risk stratification methods. A customized CPH, Boosted Cox and RSF models were trained in order to predict recurrence, and the performances were compared. RESULTS: Risk stratification using the EORTC, CUETO and EAU showed small differences in recurrence probabilities between the risk groups as determined by the risk stratification. The concordance indices (C-index) were low and ranged between 0.51 and 0.57. The predictive accuracies of CPH, Boosted Cox and RSF models were also moderate, with C-indices ranging from 0.61 to 0.64. CONCLUSIONS: Prediction of recurrence in patients with NMIBC based on patient characteristics is difficult. Alternative (non-linear) approaches have the potential to improve the predictive value. Nonetheless, the currently used characteristics are unable to properly stratify between the recurrence risks of patients.

Validation of EORTC, CUETO, and EAU risk stratification in prediction of recurrence, progression, and death of patients with initially non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC): A cohort analysis

BRIEF DESCRIPTION

The results demonstrate that the European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) scale provides the best recurrence and progression prediction in comparison with European Association of Urology (EAU) and Club Urologico Espanol de Tratamiento Oncologico (CUETO) risk scores among a mixed population of patients with non-muscle-invasive bladder who were treated with, or without, Bacillus Calmette-Guerin (BCG) and without any immediate postoperative chemotherapy. The study highlights the role of tumor diameter and extent in transition prediction. This retrospective cohort analysis of 322 patients with newly diagnosed non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC) assesses the concordance and accuracy of predicting recurrence and progression by EAU-recommended tools (EAU risk groups, EORTC, and CUETO). One-year and five-year c-indices ranged from 0.55 to 0.66 for recurrence and from 0.72 to 0.82 for progression. AUCROC of predictions ranged from 0.46 for 1-year recurrence risk based on CUETO groups, to 0.82 for 1-year progression risk based on EAU risk groups. Diameter (HR: 1.91; 95% CI: 1.39-2.61) and tumor extent (HR: 1.21; 95% CI: 1.01-1.46 for recurrence; HR: 3.1; 95% CI: 1.40-6.87 for progression) were shown to be significant predictors in multistate analysis. Lower accuracy of prediction was observed for patients treated with BCG maintenance immunotherapy. The EORTC model (overall c-index c = 0.64; 95% CI: 0.61-0.68) was superior to the EAU (P = .035; .62; 95% CI: 0.59-0.66) and CUETO (P < .001; c = 0.53; 95% CI: 0.50-0.56) models in predicting recurrence. The EORTC model (c = 0.82; 95% CI: 0.77-0.86) also performed better than CUETO (P = .008; c = 0.73; 95% CI: 0.66-0.81) but there was no sufficient evidence that it performed better than EAU (P = .572; c = 0.81; 95% CI: 0.77-0.84) for predicting progression. EORTC and CUETO gave similar predictions for progression in BCG-treated EAU high-risk patients (P = .48). We share anonymized individual patient data. In conclusion, despite moderate accuracy, EORTC provided the best recurrence and progression prediction for a mixed population of patients treated with, or without BCG, and without immediate postoperative chemotherapy.

Salvage Therapies for Non-muscle-invasive Bladder Cancer: Who Will Respond to Bacillus Calmette-Guérin? Predictors and Nomograms

The best predictors of response to intravesical immunotherapy are tumor grade and stage, tumor recurrence pattern, nomograms, panels of urinary cytokines, and fluorescent in situ hybridization patterns of urine cytology examinations. Future investigations on predictors of Bacillus Calmette-Guérin efficacy are needed to better select those patients who will really benefit from a conservative treatment. Hardly any of the proposed nomograms were designed to precisely predict the outcome of Bacillus Calmette-Guérin immunotherapy. A new nomogram for NMIBC recurrence and progression based on all non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer subgroups would include factors already proven in cancer prognosis and prediction.

Validation of the CUETO scoring model for predicting recurrence and progression in T1G3 urothelial carcinoma of the bladder

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES

Various studies tried to validate Club Urológico Español de Tratamiento Oncológico (CUETO) tables, yet, none of this papers focused on the high and very high risk bladder cancers. The aim of the study was to externally validate the CUETO model for predicting disease recurrence and progression in group of T1G3 tumors treated with BCG immunotherapy.

PATIENTS OR MATERIALS AND METHODS

Data from 414 patients with primary T1G3 bladder cancer were analysed. To evaluate the model discrimination, Cox proportional hazard regression models were created and concordance indexes were calculated.

RESULTS

The median follow-up was 68 months. The recurrence was observed in 212 (51.2%) and 64 patients (15.5%) experienced the recurrence more than once during the study follow-up. Progression of the cancer was observed in 106 patients (25.6%). Radical cystectomy was performed in 115 patients (27.8%) and there were 64 (15.5%) cancer specific deaths. For recurrence and progression probability, the concordance index of the CUETO models was 0.633 and 0.697 respectively. CUETO tables underestimated significantly the risk of recurrence and marginally the risk of progression in the first year of observation. For 5 years of observation, the trend for the recurrence was much less clear. On the contrary, there was slight overestimation in the risk of progression. The study is limited by retrospective nature.

CONCLUSIONS

It was shown that the CUETO risk tables exhibit a fair discrimination for both disease recurrence and progression in T1G3 patients treated with BCG. CUETO scoring model underestimates the risk of tumor recurrence, but predicts well risk of progression.

Risk Stratification Tools and Prognostic Models in Non-muscle-invasive Bladder Cancer: A Critical Assessment from the European Association of Urology Non-muscle-invasive Bladder Cancer Guidelines Panel

CONTEXT

This review focuses on the most widely used risk stratification and prediction tools for non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC).

OBJECTIVE

To assess the clinical use and relevance of risk stratification and prediction tools to enhance clinical decision making and counselling of patients with NMIBC.

EVIDENCE ACQUISITION

The most frequent, currently used risk stratification tools and prognostic models for NMIBC patients were identified by the members of the European Association of Urology (EAU) Guidelines Panel on NMIBC.

EVIDENCE SYNTHESIS

The 2006 European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) risk tables are the most widely used and validated tools for risk stratification and prognosis prediction in NMIBC patients. The EAU risk categories constitute a simple alternative to the EORTC risk tables and can be used for comparable risk stratification. In the subgroup of NMIBC patients treated with a short maintenance schedule of bacillus Calmette-Guerin (BCG), the Club Urológico Español de Tratamiento Oncológico (CUETO) scoring model is more accurate than the EORTC risk tables. Both the EORTC risk tables and the CUETO scoring model overestimate the recurrence and progression risks in patients treated according to current guidelines. The new concept of conditional recurrence and progression estimates is very promising during follow-up but should be validated.

CONCLUSIONS

Risk stratification and prognostic models enable outcome comparisons and standardisation of treatment and follow-up. At present, none of the available risk stratification and prognostic models reflects current standards of treatment. The EORTC risk tables and CUETO scoring model should be updated with previously unavailable data and recalculated.

PATIENT SUMMARY

Non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer is a heterogeneous disease. A risk-based therapeutic approach is recommended. We present available risk stratification and prediction tools and the degree of their validation with the aim to increase their use in everyday clinical practice.

Prediction of non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer recurrence by measurement of checkpoint HLAG's receptor ILT2 on peripheral CD8+ T cells

Background and Objective

Recurrence of non-muscle invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC) after initial management occurs in 60–70% of patients. Predictive criteria for recurrence remain only clinical and pathological. The aim of this study was to investigate the prognostic significance of the proportion of checkpoint HLA-G’s receptor ILT2-expressing peripheral CD8⁺ T cells.

Results

The proportion of CD4⁺ILT2⁺and CD8⁺ILT2⁺ T cells was not increased in NMIBC compared to controls. However, a strong association was found between recurrence and CD8⁺ILT2⁺ T cell population levels (p = 0.0006). Two-year recurrence-free survival was 83% in patients with less than 18% CD8⁺ILT2⁺ T cells, 39% in the intermediary group, and 12% in patients with more than 46% CD8⁺ILT2⁺ T cells. Multivariate analyses demonstrated that the proportion of CD8⁺ILT2⁺ T cells was an independent predictive factor for recurrence. Adding CD8⁺ILT2⁺ T cells population level to clinical variables increased the predictive accuracy of the model by 4.5%.

Materials and Methods

All patients treated for NMIBC between 2012 and 2014 were included prospectively. Blood samples, tumor and clinico-pathological characteristics were collected. HLA-G expression was measured using IHC, and CD8⁺ILT2⁺ T cell levels using flow cytometry. Association between HLA-G and CD8⁺ILT2⁺ T cell population levels with NMIBC risk of recurrence was investigated using Cox regression analyses. Prediction was measured using the concordance index statistic.

Conclusions

We demonstrated a strong association between the proportion of circulating CD8⁺ILT2⁺ T cells and NMIBC risk of recurrence. Gain in prediction was substantial. If externally validated, such immunological marker could be integrated to predict NMIBC recurrence.

Dose, duration and strain of bacillus Calmette-Guerin in the treatment of nonmuscle invasive bladder cancer: Meta-analysis of randomized clinical trials

BACKGROUND

Intravesical bacillus Calmette-Guerin (BCG) instillation is widely used as an adjuvant therapy after transurethral resection of bladder tumor (TURBT) in patients with intermediate- and high-risk nonmuscle invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC). However, the effective dose, duration, and strain of BCG have not yet been clearly determined. We aimed to elucidate the relationship between dose, duration, and strain of BCG and clinical outcomes in NMIBC patients treated with TURBT.

METHODS

We conducted a literature search in Embase, Scopus, and PubMed databases for all relevant articles published up to October 2016 in accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-analysis guidelines. The relative risks of clinical outcomes, including recurrence, progression, cancer-specific mortality, and all-cause mortality according to dose (standard vs low), duration (induction vs maintenance), and strain of BCG were presented as the pooled risk ratio (RR) and 95% confidence interval (CI).

RESULTS

Nineteen studies meeting the inclusion criteria were finally selected in this meta-analysis. The risk of recurrence was significantly highly observed in case of low-dose BCG (RR, 1.17; 95% CI 1.06-1.30) and induction BCG (RR, 1.33; 95% CI 1.17-1.50) only group without heterogeneity among the included studies. Although there were no significant differences between dose or duration and other clinical outcomes. On direct comparison in each study comparing BCG strains, the Tice stain showed a relatively high probability of recurrence compared with the Connaught (RR, 1.29; 95% CI 1.01-1.64) and RIVM (RR, 2.04, 95% CI 1.28-3.25) strains. Funnel plot testing revealed no significant publication bias.

CONCLUSION

The use of standard dose and maintenance BCG instillation may be effective to reduce recurrence rate after TURBT for NMIBC. Further large scale, well-designed, and prospective studies, with stratification of the patients into risk group at randomization, will be required to determine the optimal guideline of BCG use to improve clinical outcomes in NMIBC.

Risk factor assessment in high-risk, bacillus Calmette-Guérin-treated, non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer

Objective

To assess the risk factors associated with recurrence, progression and survival in high-risk non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC) patients treated with bacillus Calmette–Guérin (BCG) and validate the European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) and Spanish Urological Club for Oncological Treatment (CUETO) scores.

Patients and methods

We retrospectively analyzed all BCG-treated NMIBC patients from 1998 to 2012. Multiple variables were tested as risk factors for recurrence-free survival and progression-free survival (PFS). Variables included age, sex, grade, stage, tumor size, number of tumors, carcinoma in situ (CIS), recurrence status, BCG strain used, smoking status, use of re-staging transurethral resection and use of single immediate postoperative instillation. We also tested the accuracy of EORTC and CUETO scores in predicting recurrence and progression.

Results

Overall, 123 patients were analyzed. Median (interquartile range) follow-up was 49 months. The 5-year overall survival, cancer-specific survival, recurrence-free survival and PFS were 75.0%, 89.3%, 59.4% and 79.2%, respectively. On univariate analysis, multiple tumors (≥3), concomitant CIS and smoking influenced recurrence. Regarding progression, multiple tumors, concomitant CIS and Connaught strain (vs Tice) negatively influenced PFS on univariate and multivariate analyses were independent prognostic factors. CUETO scores were accurate, with a slight overestimation, while EORTC score was not predictive of recurrence or progression.

Conclusion

In this study, CIS and tumor multiplicity were unfavorable predictors of recurrence and progression in patients with NMIBC receiving BCG. CUETO model was superior to EORTC risk tables in predicting recurrence and progression in our BCG-treated patient population. Nonetheless, both scores overestimated recurrence and progression rates. Prospective trials are needed to validate our findings.

Identification of Downstream Genes of the mTOR Pathway that Predict Recurrence and Progression in Non-Muscle Invasive High-Grade Urothelial Carcinoma of the Bladder

Microarray analysis was used to investigate the lack of identified mammalian target of rapamycin (mTOR) pathway downstream genes to overcome cross-talk at non-muscle invasive high-grade (HG)-urothelial carcinoma (UC) of the bladder, gene expression patterns, gene ontology, and gene clustering by triple (p70S6K, S6K, and eIF4E) small interfering RNAs (siRNAs) or rapamycin in 5637 and T24 cell lines. We selected mTOR pathway downstream genes that were suppressed by siRNAs more than 2-fold, or were up-regulated or down-regulated by rapamycin more than 2-fold. We validated mTOR downstream genes with immunohistochemistry using a tissue microarray (TMA) of 125 non-muscle invasive HG-UC patients and knockout study to evaluate the synergistic effect with rapamycin. The microarray analysis selected mTOR pathway downstream genes consisting of 4 rapamycin up-regulated genes (FABP4, H19, ANXA10, and UPK3A) and 4 rapamycin down-regulated genes (FOXD3, ATP7A, plexin D1, and ADAMTS5). In the TMA, FABP4, and ATP7A were more expressed at T1 and FOXD3 was at Ta. ANXA10 and ADAMTS5 were more expressed in tumors ≤ 3 cm in diameter. In a multivariate Cox regression model, ANXA10 was a significant predictor of recurrence and ATP7A was a significant predictor of progression in non-muscle invasive HG-UC of the bladder. In an ATP7A knock-out model, rapamycin treatment synergistically inhibited cell viability, wound healing, and invasion ability compared to rapamycin only. Activity of the ANXA10 and ATP7A mTOR pathway downstream genes might predict recurrence and progression in non-muscle invasive HG-UC of the bladder. ATP7A knockout overcomes rapamycin cross-talk.

miRNA-556-3p promotes human bladder cancer proliferation, migration and invasion by negatively regulating DAB2IP expression

MicroRNAs (miRNAs) play critical roles in tumorigenesis and metastasis by negatively regulating gene expression through complementary binding to the 3'-untranslated region of target mRNAs. The role of miRNAs in expression of the tumor suppressor DAB2IP in bladder cancer (BC) remains unknown. The aim of the present study was to identify miRNAs targeting DAB2IP and determine their expression and function in BC. We predicted candidate miRNAs targeting DAB2IP using TargetScan software. Dual-luciferase reporter assays confirmed that miRNA-556-3p directly regulated DAB2IP expression. Quantitative RT-PCR and RNase protection assays showed that endogenous miRNA-556-3p expression was significantly upregulated in clinical samples of BC patients and BC cell lines and western blot analysis indicated that DAB2IP expression in BC tissues and BC cell lines was concurrently downregulated. Gain or loss of function studies showed that upregulation of miRNA-556-3p promoted proliferation, invasion, migration and colony formation of BC cells, whereas downregulation resulted in opposite effects. Importantly, restoration of DAB2IP expression rescued the effects induced by miRNA-556-3p. Overexpression of miRNA-556-3p in BC cells not only decreased DAB2IP expression, but also markedly increased Ras GTPase activity and ERK1/2 phosphorylation level. These findings suggest that DAB2IP is a direct target of miRNA-556-3p, and endogenous miRNA-556-3p expression shows inverse correlation with simultaneous DAB2IP expression in BC tissues and cells. miRNA-556-3p functions as a tumor promoter in tumorigenesis and metastasis of BC by targeting DAB2IP. Moreover, miRNA-556-3p-mediated DAB2IP suppression plays an oncogenic role by partial activation of the Ras-ERK pathway.

Predicting Nonmuscle Invasive Bladder Cancer Recurrence and Progression in a United States Population

PURPOSE

We assessed the performance of the EORTC (European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer) and CUETO (Club Urológico Español de Tratamiento Oncológico) nonmuscle invasive bladder cancer predictive models compared to current United States NCCN Guidelines® in an American population.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed the electronic medical records of patients with nonmuscle invasive bladder cancer in a multicenter population in the United States. We evaluated recurrence-free and progression-free survival according to EORTC and CUETO, and assessed discriminative performance with the c-index at 1 and 5 years. We then compared the discrimination of EORTC and CUETO to the discrimination of the 4 nonmuscle invasive bladder cancer treatment groups described in NCCN Guidelines.

RESULTS

We identified 1,333 patients with nonmuscle invasive bladder cancer and a median followup of 37 months. At 5 years the recurrence c-index of EORTC and CUETO was 0.59 and 0.56 while for progression it was higher at 0.74 and 0.72, respectively. NCCN Guidelines demonstrated a similar c-index of 0.56 and 0.75, respectively. The discrimination of all 3 risk models decreased in patients who received bacillus Calmette-Guérin. EORTC was better able to identify patients at low risk for recurrence or progression but it overestimated the 5-year risk of progression in patients at high risk. This study was limited by its retrospective design.

CONCLUSIONS

Our work illustrates the need for improved predictive tools for clinicians who treat patients with nonmuscle invasive bladder cancer. However, until new tools are developed NCCN Guidelines are a simple option for clinicians who treat patients with nonmuscle invasive bladder cancer. Those guidelines provide predictive power comparable to that of the EORTC and CUETO models.