Climate Influence on Emerging Risk Areas for Rift Valley Fever Epidemics in Tanzania

Expanding Understanding of Urban Rift Valley Fever Risk and Associated Vector Ecology at Slaughterhouses in Kisumu, Kenya

Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) is an adaptable arbovirus that can be transmitted by a wide variety of arthropods. Widespread urban transmission of RVFV has not yet occurred, but peri-urban outbreaks of RVFV have recently been documented in East Africa. We previously reported low-level exposure in urban communities and highlighted the risk of introduction via live animal influx. We deployed a slaughtered animal testing framework in response to an early warning system at two urban slaughterhouses and tested animals entering the meat value chain for anti-RVFV IgG and IgM antibodies. We simultaneously trapped mosquitoes for RVFV and bloodmeal testing. Out of 923 animals tested, an 8.5% IgG seroprevalence was identified but no evidence of recent livestock exposure was detected. Mosquito species abundance varied greatly by slaughterhouse site, which explained 52% of the variance in blood meals. We captured many Culex spp., a known RVFV amplifying vector, at one of the sites (p < 0.001), and this species had the most diverse blood meals. No mosquito pools tested positive for RVFV antigen using a rapid VecTOR test. These results expand understanding of potential RVF urban disease ecology, and highlight that slaughterhouses are key locations for future surveillance, modelling, and monitoring efforts.

Mitigating the effects of climate change on human health with vaccines and vaccinations

Climate change represents an unprecedented threat to humanity and will be the ultimate challenge of the 21st century. As a public health consequence, the World Health Organization estimates an additional 250,000 deaths annually by 2030, with resource-poor countries being predominantly affected. Although climate change's direct and indirect consequences on human health are manifold and far from fully explored, a growing body of evidence demonstrates its potential to exacerbate the frequency and spread of transmissible infectious diseases. Effective, high-impact mitigation measures are critical in combating this global crisis. While vaccines and vaccination are among the most cost-effective public health interventions, they have yet to be established as a major strategy in climate change-related health effect mitigation. In this narrative review, we synthesize the available evidence on the effect of climate change on vaccine-preventable diseases. This review examines the direct effect of climate change on water-related diseases such as cholera and other enteropathogens, helminthic infections and leptospirosis. It also explores the effects of rising temperatures on vector-borne diseases like dengue, chikungunya, and malaria, as well as the impact of temperature and humidity on airborne diseases like influenza and respiratory syncytial virus infection. Recent advances in global vaccine development facilitate the use of vaccines and vaccination as a mitigation strategy in the agenda against climate change consequences. A focused evaluation of vaccine research and development, funding, and distribution related to climate change is required.

Multifunctional human monoclonal antibody combination mediates protection against Rift Valley fever virus at low doses

The zoonotic Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) can cause severe disease in humans and has pandemic potential, yet no approved vaccine or therapy exists. Here we describe a dual-mechanism human monoclonal antibody (mAb) combination against RVFV that is effective at minimal doses in a lethal mouse model of infection. We structurally analyze and characterize the binding mode of a prototypical potent Gn domain-A-binding antibody that blocks attachment and of an antibody that inhibits infection by abrogating the fusion process as previously determined. Surprisingly, the Gn domain-A antibody does not directly block RVFV Gn interaction with the host receptor low density lipoprotein receptor-related protein 1 (LRP1) as determined by a competitive assay. This study identifies a rationally designed combination of human mAbs deserving of future investigation for use in humans against RVFV infection. Using a two-pronged mechanistic approach, we demonstrate the potent efficacy of a rationally designed combination mAb therapeutic.

Trends in mosquito species distribution modeling: insights for vector surveillance and disease control

Species distribution modeling (SDM) has become an increasingly common approach to explore questions about ecology, geography, outbreak risk, and global change as they relate to infectious disease vectors. Here, we conducted a systematic review of the scientific literature, screening 563 abstracts and identifying 204 studies that used SDMs to produce distribution estimates for mosquito species. While the number of studies employing SDM methods has increased markedly over the past decade, the overwhelming majority used a single method (maximum entropy modeling; MaxEnt) and focused on human infectious disease vectors or their close relatives. The majority of regional models were developed for areas in Africa and Asia, while more localized modeling efforts were most common for North America and Europe. Findings from this study highlight gaps in taxonomic, geographic, and methodological foci of current SDM literature for mosquitoes that can guide future efforts to study the geography of mosquito-borne disease risk.

A highly potent human neutralizing antibody prevents vertical transmission of Rift Valley fever virus in a rat model

Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) is an emerging mosquito-transmitted virus that circulates in livestock and humans in Africa and the Middle East. Outbreaks lead to high rates of miscarriages in domesticated livestock. Women are also at risk of vertical virus transmission and late-term miscarriages. MAb RVFV-268 is a highly potent recombinant neutralizing human monoclonal antibody that targets RVFV. Here we show that mAb RVFV-268 reduces viral replication in rat placenta explant cultures and prevents vertical transmission in a rat model of congenital RVF. Passive transfer of mAb RVFV-268 from mother to fetus occurs as early as 6 h after administration and persists through 24 h. Administering mAb RVFV-268 2 h prior to RVFV challenge or 24 h post-challenge protects the dams and offspring from RVFV infection. These findings support mAb RVFV-268 as a pre- and post-infection treatment to subvert RVFV infection and vertical transmission, thus protecting the mother and offspring.

Leveraging livestock movements to urban slaughterhouses for wide-spread Rift Valley fever virus surveillance in Western Kenya

Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) is an economically devastating, zoonotic arbovirus endemic across Africa with potential to cause severe disease in livestock and humans. Viral spread is primarily driven by movement of domestic ruminants and there is a high potential for transboundary spread. Despite influx of livestock to urban areas in response to the high demand for meat and animal products, RVFV has not been detected in any urban center. The objectives of this study were to determine the feasibility of assessing risk of RVFV introduction to urban Kisumu, Kenya, by testing slaughtered livestock for RVFV exposure and mapping livestock origins. Blood was collected from cattle, sheep, and goats directly after slaughter and tested for anti-RVFV IgG antibodies. Slaughterhouse businessmen responded to a questionnaire on their individual animals' origin, marketplace, and transport means. Thereafter, we mapped livestock flow from origin to slaughterhouse using participatory methods in focus group discussions with stakeholders. Qualitative data on route choice and deviations were spatially integrated into the map. A total of 304 blood samples were collected from slaughtered livestock in October and November 2021. Most (99%) of animals were purchased from 28 different markets across eight counties in Western Kenya. The overall RVFV seroprevalence was 9% (19% cattle, 3% in sheep, and 7% in goats). Migori County bordering Tanzania had the highest county-level seroprevalence (34%) and 80% of all seropositive cattle were purchased at the Suba Kuria market in Migori County. Road quality and animal health influenced stakeholders' decisions for choice of transport means. Overall, this proof-of-concept study offers a sampling framework for RVFV that can be locally implemented and rapidly deployed in response to regional risk. This system can be used in conjunction with participatory maps to improve active livestock surveillance and monitoring of RVFV in Western Kenya, and these methods could be extrapolated to other urban centers or livestock diseases.

Advances in Understanding Neuropathogenesis of Rift Valley Fever Virus

Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) is an emerging arboviral pathogen that causes disease in both livestock and humans. Severe disease manifestations of Rift Valley fever (RVF) in humans include hemorrhagic fever, ocular disease, and encephalitis. This review describes the current understanding of the pathogenesis of RVF encephalitis. While some data from human studies exist, the development of several animal models has accelerated studies of the neuropathogenesis of RVFV. We review current animal models and discuss what they have taught us about RVFV encephalitis. We briefly describe alternative models that have been used to study other neurotropic arboviruses and how these models may help contribute to our understanding RVFV encephalitis. We conclude with some unanswered questions and future directions.

An unusually long Rift valley fever inter-epizootic period in Zambia: Evidence for enzootic virus circulation and risk for disease outbreak

Rift valley fever (RVF) is a mosquito-borne disease of animals and humans. Although RVF outbreaks are usually reported at 5-15-year intervals in sub-Saharan Africa, Zambia has experienced an unusually long inter-epizootic/-epidemic period of more than three decades. However, serological evidence of RVF virus (RVFV) infection in domestic ruminants during this period underscores the need for comprehensive investigation of the mechanisms of virus perpetuation and disease emergence. Mosquitoes (n = 16,778) captured from eight of the ten provinces of Zambia between April 2014 and May 2019 were pooled (n = 961) and screened for RVFV genome by a pan-phlebo RT-PCR assay. Aedes mosquito pools (n = 85) were further screened by nested RT-PCR assay. Sera from sheep (n = 13), goats (n = 259) and wild ungulates (n = 285) were screened for RVFV antibodies by ELISA while genome detection in pooled sera (n = 276) from domestic (n = 248) and wild ungulates (n = 37) was performed by real-time RT-PCR assay. To examine the association between the long inter-epizootic period and climatic variables, we examined El Niño-Southern Oscillation indices, precipitation anomalies, and normalized difference vegetation index. We then derived RVF risk maps by exploring climatic variables that would favor emergence of primary RVFV vectors. While no RVFV genome could be detected in pooled mosquito and serum samples, seroprevalence was significantly high (OR = 8.13, 95% CI [4.63–14.25]) in wild ungulates (33.7%; 96/285) compared to domestic ruminants (5.6%; 16/272). Retrospective analysis of RVF epizootics in Zambia showed a positive correlation between anomalous precipitation (La Niña) and disease emergence. On risk mapping, whilst northern and eastern parts of the country were at high risk, domestic ruminant population density was low (< 21 animals/km²) in these areas compared to low risk areas (>21 animals/km²). Besides evidence of silent circulation of RVFV and the risk of disease emergence in some areas, wildlife may play a role in the maintenance of RVFV in Zambia.

Rift valley fever (RVF) is an important mosquito borne disease of humans and ruminants. RVF is endemic in sub-Saharan Africa where disease outbreaks are frequently reported in humans and animals. For RVF outbreaks to occur, there has to be presence of the host (animals or humans) and favorable climatic conditions that favor emergence of RVF virus vectors (mosquitoes). Understanding this complex interaction enables us to predict future disease outbreaks and map RVF high risk areas. Above normal rainfall and floods will usually trigger RVF outbreaks. In this study, we conducted surveillance for RVF in mosquitoes, domestic and wild ruminants. We then examined climatic conditions that may have been responsible for past RVF outbreaks and the unusually (>30 years) long inter-epizootic period. Finally, we derived RVF risk maps for Zambia using a combination of climatic variables. We found evidence of RVF infection in both wild and domestic ruminants while there was a positive correlation between past RVF outbreaks and above-normal rainfall. On risk mapping, we found favorable conditions (i.e. high rainfall and risk of flooding) for RVF emergence in northern and eastern parts of the country. Studies like this are important in planning surveillance and disease control programs.

Climatic influence on the magnitude of COVID-19 outbreak: a stochastic model-based global analysis

We investigate the climatic influence on COVID-19 transmission risks in 228 cities globally across three climatic zones. The results, based on the application of a Boosted Regression Tree algorithm method, show that average temperature and average relative humidity explain significant variations in COVID-19 transmission across temperate and subtropical regions, whereas in the tropical region, the average diurnal temperature range and temperature seasonality significantly predict the infection outbreak. The number of positive cases showed a decrease sharply above an average temperature of 10°C in the cities of France, Turkey, the US, the UK, and Germany. Among the tropical countries, COVID-19 in Indian cities is most affected by mean diurnal temperature, and those in Brazil by temperature seasonality. The findings have implications on public health interventions, and contribute to the ongoing scientific and policy discourse on the complex interplay of climatic factors determining the risks of COVID-19 transmission.

Urban risk factors for human Rift Valley fever virus exposure in Kenya

The Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) is a zoonotic arbovirus that can also transmit directly to humans from livestock. Previous studies have shown consumption of sick animal products are risk factors for RVFV infection, but it is difficult to disentangle those risk factors from other livestock rearing activities. Urban areas have an increased demand for animal source foods, different vector distributions, and various arboviruses are understood to establish localized urban transmission cycles. Thus far, RVFV is an unevaluated public health risk in urban areas within endemic regions. We tested participants in our ongoing urban cohort study on dengue (DENV) and chikungunya (CHIKV) virus for RVFV exposure and found 1.6% (57/3,560) of individuals in two urban areas of Kenya had anti-RVFV IgG antibodies. 88% (50/57) of RVFV exposed participants also had antibodies to DENV, CHIKV, or both. Although livestock ownership was very low in urban study sites, RVFV exposure was overall significantly associated with seeing goats around the homestead (OR = 2.34 (CI 95%: 1.18-4.69, p = 0.02) and in Kisumu, RVFV exposure was associated with consumption of raw milk (OR = 6.28 (CI 95%: 0.94-25.21, p = 0.02). In addition, lack of piped water and use of small jugs (15-20 liters) for water was associated with a higher risk of RVFV exposure (OR = 5.36 (CI 95%: 1.23-16.44, p = 0.01) and this may contribute to interepidemic vector-borne maintenance of RVFV. We also investigated perception towards human vaccination for RVFV and identified high acceptance (91% (97/105) at our study sites. This study provides baseline evidence to guide future studies investigating the urban potential of RVFV and highlights the unexplored role of animal products in continued spread of RVFV.

Risk based serological survey of Rift Valley fever in Tunisia (2017-2018)

Rift Valley fever (RVF) has been reported in the sub-Saharan region of Africa, Egypt and Arabian Peninsula - Yemen and Saudi Arabia, over the past 20 years and is a threat to both the animal and human populations in Tunisia. Tunisia is considered as a high-risk country for the introduction of RVF due to the informal movements of diseased animals already reported in the neighboring countries. The objective of this study was to assess the status of RVF in small ruminants and camels in Tunisia. A risk-based serological survey was conducted to evaluate the presence of RVF based on spatial qualitative risk analysis (SQRA). Samples were collected from small ruminants (sheep and goats) (n = 1,114), and camels (n = 173) samples, belonging to 18 breeders in 14 governorates between November 2017 and January 2018. Samples were tested using an RVF specific multispecies competitive ELISA. Out of the 1,287 samples tested for the presence of RVF IgG antibodies by ELISA, only one positive sample 0.07% (1/1 287) was detected but not confirmed with the virus neutralization test (VNT) used for confirmation. So far, no RVF outbreaks have been reported in Tunisia and our study confirmed the absence of RVF in livestock up to January 2018. Further investigations are needed to confirm the RVF-free status of Tunisia today.

Rift Valley fever knowledge, mitigation strategies and communication preferences among male and female livestock farmers in Eastern Province, Rwanda

The Government of Rwanda reported an outbreak of Rift Valley fever (RVF) in the Eastern Province in 2018. To respond to the outbreak, vaccination and education campaigns about the disease were carried out. Because RVF cases continue to be detected in Rwanda and the disease impacts livelihoods and health, accurate knowledge and communication are imperative. The objectives of this study were to evaluate knowledge and risk perceptions of RVF transmission among livestock farmers in Nyagatare District, Eastern Province, Rwanda, and to compare RVF knowledge, risk perceptions, and farming practices between male and female livestock farmers. This cross-sectional, quantitative study was conducted in selected sectors of Nyagatare District in the Eastern Province of Rwanda in June 2019. A 34-question survey was used to ask about demographics, livestock ownership, risk perceptions about zoonotic diseases and livestock management, RVF knowledge, preferred communication sources and information sharing strategies, and protective strategies for RVF mitigation while working with livestock. Livestock farmers were interviewed at three milk collection centers, two village meeting points, a farm cooperative meeting, and during door-to-door visits in villages. In total, 123 livestock farmers were interviewed. The survey found that most livestock farmers lacked knowledge about epizootic and zoonotic transmission of RVF, more male livestock farmers were familiar with RVF and risk mitigation strategies, and female livestock farmers are not viewed as reliable sources of information. Additionally, most livestock farmers had not vaccinated their animals against RVF despite past vaccination campaigns. Radio was the most popular communication channel. These findings show that RVF knowledge and information sharing are inadequate among livestock farmers in Eastern Province. Therefore, vaccination and education campaigns may need to be reevaluated within the context of these trends in order to prepare for future RVF outbreaks.

This study was conducted in order to evaluate RVF knowledge and awareness as well as communication and mitigation strategies among livestock farmers in Eastern Province, Rwanda. Rwanda declared an outbreak of RVF in 2018 and cases have continued to be detected. Thus, evaluating the status of knowledge, preventive strategies, and information sharing among livestock farmers is crucial in mitigating future outbreaks. Our team conducted a survey of knowledge, risk perceptions, mitigation strategies, and communication practices among livestock farmers from selected sectors within Nyagatare District and compared them between male and female livestock farmers in order to analyze gender-nuanced differences between these groups. Sectors were chosen for sampling based on their proximity to previous outbreak areas. Survey questionnaire results showed that knowledge and risk perceptions differed between male and female livestock farmers, and that they could be generally improved among all livestock farmers. Female livestock farmers and non-farming community members were viewed as unreliable sources of information which could impact information dissemination. Many farmers also reported that their livestock herds were not vaccinated for the disease despite previous vaccination campaigns. Communication strategies and information sources also differed between male and female livestock farmers, which highlights a need to consider gender in improving RVF vaccination and education campaign coverage. These findings pose implications for future community-based public health interventions as well as policy development for RVF control and mitigating future RVF outbreaks within Rwanda.

Modeling the Potential Future Distribution of Anthrax Outbreaks under Multiple Climate Change Scenarios for Kenya

The climate is changing, and such changes are projected to cause global increase in the prevalence and geographic ranges of infectious diseases such as anthrax. There is limited knowledge in the tropics with regards to expected impacts of climate change on anthrax outbreaks. We determined the future distribution of anthrax in Kenya with representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 for year 2055. Ecological niche modelling (ENM) of boosted regression trees (BRT) was applied in predicting the potential geographic distribution of anthrax for current and future climatic conditions. The models were fitted with presence-only anthrax occurrences (n = 178) from historical archives (2011-2017), sporadic outbreak surveys (2017-2018), and active surveillance (2019-2020). The selected environmental variables in order of importance included rainfall of wettest month, mean precipitation (February, October, December, July), annual temperature range, temperature seasonality, length of longest dry season, potential evapotranspiration and slope. We found a general anthrax risk areal expansion i.e., current, 36,131 km2, RCP 4.5, 40,012 km2, and RCP 8.5, 39,835 km2. The distribution exhibited a northward shift from current to future. This prediction of the potential anthrax distribution under changing climates can inform anticipatory measures to mitigate future anthrax risk.

Multiplex-RT-PCR-ELISA panel for detecting mosquito-borne pathogens: Plasmodium sp. preserved and eluted from dried blood spots on sample cards

BACKGROUND

Children are the most vulnerable group affected by malaria and other tropical, vector-borne diseases in low-resource countries. Infants presenting with acute onset fever represent a major sector of outpatient care in the Lake Victoria region. Misclassification and overuse of antibiotics and anti-malarial medications are consistent problems. Identifying the prevalent mosquito-borne pathogens in the region will reduce the prescription of non-indicated medicines.

METHODS

The literature was reviewed focusing on the mosquito-borne pathogens most prevalent in sub-Saharan Africa. Accordingly, an assay comprised of a multiplex-reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction and an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (multiplex-RT-PCR-ELISA) was designed and validated in its ability to identify and differentiate nine human mosquito-borne pathogens including eight arboviruses and Plasmodium sp., the aetiologic agents of malaria. Blood samples obtained from 132 children suspected of having malaria were spotted and preserved on Whatman^® 903 protein sample cards. Multiplex-RT-PCR-ELISA analysis was assessed and compared to results obtained by blood smear microscopy and the malaria rapid diagnostic test (RDT).

RESULTS

Nine out of nine pathogens were amplified specifically by the multiplex-RT-PCR-ELISA panel. Twenty-seven out of 132 paediatric patients presenting with acute fever were infected with Plasmodium sp., confirmed by multiplex-RT-PCR. The results of blood smear microscopy were only 40% sensitive and 92.8% specific. The malaria RDT, on the other hand, detected acute Plasmodium infections with 96.3% sensitivity and 98.1% specificity. The preservation of Plasmodium sp. in clinical sera and whole blood samples spotted on sample cards was evaluated. The duration of successful, sample card storage was 186 to 312 days.

CONCLUSIONS

Reliable, easy-to-use point of care diagnostic tests are a powerful alternative to laboratory-dependent gold standard tests. The multiplex-RT-PCR-ELISA amplified and identified nine vector-borne pathogens including Plasmodium sp. with great accuracy. Translation of improved diagnostic approaches, i.e., multiplex-RT-PCR-ELISA, into effective treatment options promises to reduce childhood mortality and non-indicated prescriptions.

The impact of climate change on mosquito-borne diseases in Africa

Despite being one of the continents with the least greenhouse gas emissions, no continent is being struck as severely by climate change (CC) as Africa. Mosquito-borne diseases (MBD) cause major human diseases in this continent. Current knowledge suggests that MBD range could expand dramatically in response to CC. This study aimed at assessing the relationship between CC and MBD in Africa. Methods For this purpose, a systematic peer review was carried out, considering all articles indexed in PubMed, Scopus, Embase and CENTRAL. Search terms referring to MBD, CC and environmental factors were screened in title, abstract and keywords.Results A total of twenty-nine studies were included, most of them on malaria (61%), being Anopheles spp. (61%) the most commonly analyzed vector, mainly in Eastern Africa (48%). Seventy-nine percent of these studies were based on predictive models. Seventy-two percent of the reviewed studies considered that CC impacts on MBD epidemiology. MBD prevalence will increase according to 69% of the studies while 17% predicted a decrease. MBD expansion throughout the continent was also predicted. Most studies showed a positive relationship between observed or predicted results and CC. However, there was a great heterogeneity in methodologies and a tendency to reductionism, not integrating other variables that interact with both the environment and MBD. In addition, most results have not yet been tested. A global health approach is desirable in this kind of research. Nevertheless, we cannot wait for science to approve something that needs to be addressed now to avoid greater effects in the future.