Disease Burden of Dengue in the Philippines: Adjusting for Underreporting by Comparing Active and Passive Dengue Surveillance in Punta Princesa, Cebu City

Effectiveness of mass dengue vaccination with CYD-TDV (Dengvaxia®) in the state of Paraná, Brazil: integrating case-cohort and case-control designs

Background

CYD-TDV (Dengvaxia®) was the first dengue vaccine approved, launched in Brazil in 2015 for individuals aged 9-44 years. We aimed to estimate the effectiveness of CYD-TDV in preventing symptomatic dengue cases during a campaign targeting individuals aged 15-27 years in selected municipalities in Paraná, Brazil. Additionally, we examined whether a history of dengue, as recorded by the surveillance system, modified the vaccine's effectiveness.

Methods

We conducted a case-cohort analysis comparing the frequency of vaccination, with at least one dose of CYD-TDV, in individuals with dengue confirmed by RT-PCR, identified by the surveillance system during 2019 and 2020, with the vaccination coverage in the target population. Moreover, in a case-control design using weighted controls, we assessed the documented history of dengue as a modifier of the vaccine's effectiveness. We used a logistic random-effects regression model, with data clustered in municipalities and incorporating covariates such as the incidence of dengue before the campaign, age, and sex. We calculated vaccine effectiveness (VE) as (1-relative risk) x 100%.

Findings

1869 dengue cases were identified, which had a vaccination frequency significantly lower than the overall vaccination coverage in the target population (50.3% vs. 57.2%, respectively; overall VE: 21.3%; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 13.4%-28.4%). In individuals with a documented history of dengue, vaccination had a VE of 71% (95% CI: 58%-80%) in reducing the incidence of dengue. However, vaccination was not associated with a significant reduction in the overall dengue case risk in individuals without a documented history of dengue (VE: 12%; 95% CI: -21% to 36%). In this last stratum, vaccination was associated with reduced cases due to DENV-1 and DENV-4, but an excess of DENV-2 cases.

Interpretation

Vaccination led to a significant reduction in reported dengue cases within the target population. The case-control design suggested that this reduction was primarily driven by the benefits observed in individuals with a documented history of dengue. In endemic regions with limited serological testing facilities, a previous history of dengue diagnosis recorded by epidemiological surveillance could be used to triage candidates for CYD-TDV vaccination.

Funding

Research supported by Sanofi.

Dengue in Cebu City, Philippines: A Pilot Study of Predictive Models and Visualizations for Public Health

Dengue is a global health issue, particularly in the tropical and subtropical regions of the world. Prevention is the most appropriate method to fight the spread of the virus. The objective of this research is to present a model, along with visualizations, that will enable health officials and community leaders to identify when and where potential dengue outbreaks are likely to occur. Armed with this information, local resources can be adequately deployed in an effort to use limited supplies effectively. A mathematical model that uses easily obtainable data, along with visualizations for the 80 barangays of Cebu City, Philippines, is presented. Visualizations are constructed appropriate for a generalist audience to comprehend and use for dengue mitigation. Results of this study include a model that uses readily available data to predict dengue outbreaks one month in advance and visualizations appropriate for decision-makers in public health. Additional items are identified that could enhance the explanatory power of the model, and future directions are discussed.

The Burden of Arboviral Infections in the Military Health System 2012-2019

Arboviral infections, including dengue (DNV), chikungunya (CHIKV), and Zika (ZIKV), impact both travelers and native populations of endemic regions. We sought to assess the disease burden of arboviral infections in the Military Health System, the validity of arboviral diagnostic codes, and the role of pretravel counseling on insect avoidance precautions. We searched for diagnostic codes consistent with arboviral infection and grouped them into DNV, CHIKV, ZIKV, Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV), and Other. Demographic data were evaluated. A subset of charts in each category were reviewed for diagnostic validity and travel characteristics. In all, 10,547 unique subjects carried 17,135 arboviral diagnostic codes, including 1,606 subjects (15.2%) coded for DNV, 230 (2.2%) for ZIKV, 65 (0.6%) for CHIKV, and 4,317 (40.9%) for JEV. A chart review was performed on 807 outpatient charts, yielding outpatient diagnostic code positive predictive values of 60.5% (DNV), 15.3% (ZIKV), and 64.5% (CHIKV); there were no valid cases of JEV. Dengue represented the greatest burden of arboviral infections with 2.2 cases per 100,000 military healthcare enrollees over the 2012-2019 fiscal years. More than 80% of subjects with arboviral infection did not have documented pretravel counseling. Arboviral infections represent a significant disease burden in young travelers to endemic regions. After adjustment for diagnostic validity, DNV represented the greatest burden. Diagnostic codes for ZIKV and JEV overestimate the burden of these diseases. Low rates of pretravel visits represent an opportunity for increased emphasis on insect exposure precautions.

Analysis of dengue cases and severity classifications in Cavite Province, Philippines

BACKGROUND & OBJECTIVES

Dengue is considered endemic in many countries in the world including the Philippines, and factors associated with dengue infections have not been adequately explored in the Philippines. The aim of this study was to assess demographic and location-related factors associated with different classifications of dengue: mild dengue, dengue fever, and hemorrhage dengue fever.

METHODS

This study used consolidated dengue reports of 18482 individual cases from the Provincial Hospital (PH) of Cavite province from 2009-2014 and clinical classifications of dengue used by the Philippine Integrated Disease Surveillance and Response (PIDSR). Multinomial logistic regression and marginal effects were used to analyze factors associated with different dengue classifications.

RESULTS

Living in densely populated cities and municipalities, individuals aged 19 years and below, and being female were closely associated with severe dengue (DHF) type, while being male and older (above 19 years old) decreased the risk of contracting severe dengue.

INTERPRETATION & CONCLUSION

Our study provides a preliminary assessment of association between demographic factors (gender and age-group), locations (municipalities and cities); and three classifications of dengue (mild, moderate, and severe) in Cavite province in the Philippines. To establish whether dengue is linked to populated areas, age and gender will require further assessments.

Assessing the burden of dengue among household members in Alaminos, Laguna, the Philippines: a prospective cohort study

Background

The incidence of dengue is increasing rapidly and is a challenging health issue in the Philippines. Epidemiological data are largely based on a passive-surveillance reporting system, which leads to substantial under-reporting of cases.

Objectives

To estimate dengue infection and disease incidence prospectively at the community level in an endemic area of the Philippines using an active surveillance strategy.

Methods

We implemented active surveillance in the highly endemic community of Alaminos, Laguna. The study consisted of a 1-year follow-up with 2 visits scheduled at the start and end of the study, as well as regular active surveillance in between and unscheduled visits for suspected cases. Blood samples were collected and analyzed to detect dengue during the first scheduled visit and all unscheduled visits, and clinical examination was performed at all visits (registered at clinicaltrials.gov NCT02766088).

Results

We enrolled 500 participants, aged from 6 months to 50 years; 76.2% were found positive for immunoglobulin G (95% confidence interval [CI], 71.9-80.0), with 92.0% among those aged 9-17 years. Active (weekly) surveillance identified 4 virologically confirmed cases of dengue (incidence proportion 0.8; 95% CI 0.3-2.1); all in participants aged ≤14 years.

Conclusions

Routine surveillance programs such as sentinel sites are needed to characterize the entire clinical spectrum of symptomatic dengue, disease incidence, and transmission in the community.

Modelling the interdependent relationships among epidemic antecedents using fuzzy multiple attribute decision making (F-MADM) approaches

With the high incidence of the dengue epidemic in developing countries, it is crucial to understand its dynamics from a holistic perspective. This paper analyzes different types of antecedents from a cybernetics perspective using a structural modelling approach. The novelty of this paper is twofold. First, it analyzes antecedents that may be social, institutional, environmental, or economic in nature. Since this type of study has not been done in the context of the dengue epidemic modelling, this paper offers a fresh perspective on this topic. Second, the paper pioneers the use of fuzzy multiple attribute decision making (F-MADM) approaches for the modelling of epidemic antecedents. As such, the paper has provided an avenue for the cross-fertilization of knowledge between scholars working in soft computing and epidemiological modelling domains.

Epidemiological Impact and Hospitalization costs applied to dengue in the Midwest region of Minas Gerais state, Brazil, from SUS perspective

BACKGROUND & OBJECTIVES

Dengue is considered one of the greatest public health challenges in the world, especially, for tropical and subtropical countries. Brazil highlights with considerable number of registers associated with this arbovirus, with emphasis on the state of Minas Gerais and its municipalities in regions such as the midwest. We aimed to evaluate the economic and epidemiological impact of dengue in the midwest region of minas Gerais, from SUS perspective.

METHODS

Our study evaluated the epidemiological impact of dengue fever in the midwest region of Minas Gerais using data applied to Divinópolis city from SUS perspective between 2000 to 2015 considering SIH/SUS database (hospitalization registers) and 2007 to 2017 using the SINAN database (notification cases). We analyzed the number of notification registers and hospital services, as well as their costs, from a SUS perspective associated with this infection.

RESULTS

There were 26,516 notifications associated with dengue, with 21,953 cases being confirmed by SEMUSA, with a median incidence of 211 cases/100,000 inhabitants of dengue notifications between 2007 and 2017. The southeast and southwest regions in the municipality are highlighted with high number of cases. Additionally, 160 hospitalizations were recorded with 33.79% in individuals between 15 and 34 years old and expenses of USD 53,737.21 for SUS between 2000 and 2015.

INTERPRETATION & CONCLUSION

Divinópolis is the reference (social and economic) municipality of the midwest region in Minas Gerais state. Our study is the first conducted involving a long period of follow up applied to dengue context in this locality, especially, including the costs associated with hospitalization services. We hope to contribute to the discussions regarding the coping strategies of the disease, considering the impact in its different regions, highlighting the need for continued efforts and initiatives aimed at combating the vector of this and other arboviruses such as Zika and chikungunya.

A comparison of passive surveillance and active cluster-based surveillance for dengue fever in southern coastal Ecuador

BACKGROUND

Dengue is a major emerging infectious disease, endemic throughout the tropics and subtropics, with approximately 2.5 billion people at risk globally. Active (AS) and passive surveillance (PS), when combined, can improve our understanding of dengue's complex disease dynamics to guide effective, targeted public health interventions. The objective of this study was to compare findings from the Ministry of Health (MoH) PS to a prospective AS arbovirus research study in Machala, Ecuador in 2014 and 2015.

METHODS

Dengue cases in the PS system were compared to laboratory confirmed acute dengue illness cases that entered the AS study during the study period. Variables of interest included age class and sex. Outbreak detection curves by epidemiologic week, overall cumulative incidence and age-specific incidence proportions were calculated. Descriptive statistics were tabulated for all variables of interest. Chi-square tests were performed to compare demographic characteristics between the AS and PS data sets in 2014 and 2015.

RESULTS

177 and 245 cases were identified from 1/1/2014 to 12/31/2015 by PS and AS, respectively; nine cases appeared in both systems. AS identified a greater number of laboratory-confirmed cases in 2014, accounting for more than 60% of dengue cases in the study area. In 2015, the opposite trend was observed with PS identifying 60% of the dengue cases in the study area. Peak transmission time in laboratory confirmed dengue illness, as noted by AS and PS was similar in 2014, whereas earlier detection (7 weeks) was observed by AS in 2015. Younger patients were more frequently identified by PS, while older patients were identified more frequently by AS. The cumulative incidence proportion for laboratory confirmed dengue illness reported via PS to the MoH was 4.12 cases per 10,000 residents in 2014, and 2.21 cases per 10,000 residents in 2015.

CONCLUSIONS

Each surveillance system captured distinct demographic subgroups within the Machala population, possibly due to differences in healthcare seeking behaviors, access to care, emerging threats of other viruses transmitted by the same mosquito vector and/or differences in clinical presentation. Integrating AS with pre-existing PS can aid in identifying additional cases in previously underdiagnosed subpopulations, improving our understanding of disease dynamics, and facilitating the implementation of timely public health interventions.

Colares JK, C. B. Coelho Z, M. C. Araújo F, Dias Schwarcz W, Duarte AC, Borges B, Minguet C, Guignard A. Dengue Infection in Children in Fortaleza, Brazil: A 3-Year School-Based Prospective Cohort Study

Dengue is endemic in Brazil. The dengue surveillance system's reliance on passive reporting may underestimate disease incidence and cannot detect asymptomatic/pauci-symptomatic cases. In this 3-year prospective cohort study (NCT01391819) in 5- to 13-year-old children from nine schools in Fortaleza (N = 2,117), we assessed dengue virus (DENV) infection seroprevalence by IgG indirect ELISA at yearly visits and disease incidence through active and enhanced passive surveillance. Real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR) and DENV IgM/IgG capture ELISA were used for diagnosis. We further characterized confirmed and probable cases with a plaque reduction neutralization test. At enrollment, 54.1% (95% CI: 46.6, 61.4) of children were DENV IgG positive. The annual incidence of laboratory-confirmed symptomatic dengue cases was 11.0 (95% CI: 7.3, 14.7), 18.1 (10.4, 25.7), and 10.2 (0.7, 19.7), and of laboratory-confirmed or probable dengue cases with neutralizing antibody profile evocative of dengue exposure was 13.2 (6.6, 19.9), 18.7 (5.3, 32.2), and 8.4 (2.4, 19.2) per 1,000 child-years in 2012, 2013, and 2014, respectively. By RT-qPCR, we identified 14 DENV-4 cases in 2012-2013 and seven DENV-1 cases in 2014. During the course of the study, 32.8% of dengue-naive children experienced a primary infection. Primary inapparent dengue infection was detected in 20.3% (95% CI: 13.6, 29.1) of dengue-naive children in 2012, 8.7% (6.9, 10.9) in 2013, and 5.1% (4.4, 6.0) in 2014. Our results confirmed the high dengue endemicity in Fortaleza, with active and enhanced passive surveillance detecting three to five times more cases than the National System of Disease Notification.

Untapped Potential: A Qualitative Study of a Hospital-Based Dengue Surveillance System

The incidence and geographical distribution of dengue fever has increased in recent decades. The actual disease burden is unknown owing to frequent underreporting and misclassification of cases. A well-functioning system for diagnosing, treating, and reporting cases is of prime importance as disease statistics is the foundation for decisions aiming to control the disease. This study aimed to explore the hospital-based disease surveillance system in Yogyakarta, a dengue-endemic region on Java, Indonesia. Semi-structured interviews were performed with 16 informants from four hospitals, including five general practitioners, three internists, four pediatricians, and four administrative staff working with administration relating to dengue diagnostics and reporting. Data were analyzed using content analysis. A theme arose from the analysis “Dengue surveillance stands and falls by the rigor of the health system.” The theme, and underlying categories and subcategories, describes a surveillance system that in the best-case scenario works well and is likely to produce reliable dengue case data. However, there is a lack of synchronization between regulations and guidelines in different hospitals and some friction between regulatory bodies and the care provider. Knowledge among the staff appears to vary, and many clinical and financial decisions are made rather arbitrarily, which ultimately might lead to unequal health service delivery. In conclusion, the dengue surveillance system under study could improve further, particularly by ensuring that all regulations and recommended procedures are standardized and that all staff are given the best opportunity to stay updated on dengue-related matters, clinical as well as regulatory, on a regular basis.

Trends in dengue research in the Philippines: A systematic review

Dengue is an important public health problem in the Philippines. We sought to describe the trends in dengue research in the country. We searched four databases and identified published studies on dengue research in the Philippines during the past 60 years. We reviewed 135 eligible studies, of which 33% were descriptive epidemiologic studies or case series, 16% were entomologic or vector control studies, 12% were studies on dengue virology and serologic response, 10% were socio-behavioral and economics studies, 8% were clinical trials, 7% were on burden of disease, 7% were investigations on markers of disease severity, 5% were on dengue diagnostics, and 2% were modeling studies. During the last decade, dengue research in the Philippines has increased and evolved from simple descriptive studies to those with more complex and diverse designs. We identified several key topics where more research would be useful.

The Estimates of the Health and Economic Burden of Dengue in Vietnam

Dengue has been estimated to cause a substantial health and economic burden in Vietnam. The most recent studies have estimated that it is responsible for 39884 disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) annually, representing an economic burden of US$94.87 million per year (in 2016 prices). However, there are alternative burden estimates that are notably lower. This variation is predominantly due to differences in how the number of symptomatic dengue cases is estimated. Understanding the methodology of these burden calculations is vital when interpreting health economic analyses of dengue. This review aims to provide an overview of the health and economic burden estimates of dengue in Vietnam. We also highlight important research gaps for future studies.

The use of longitudinal cohorts for studies of dengue viral pathogenesis and protection

In this review, we describe how longitudinal prospective community-based, school-based, and household-based cohort studies contribute to improving our knowledge of viral disease, focusing specifically on contributions to understanding and preventing dengue. We describe how longitudinal cohorts enable measurement of essential disease parameters and risk factors; provide insights into biological correlates of protection and disease risk; enable rapid application of novel biological and statistical technologies; lead to development of new interventions and inform vaccine trial design; serve as sentinels in outbreak conditions and facilitate development of critical diagnostic assays; enable holistic studies on disease in the context of other infections, comorbidities, and environmental risk factors; and build research capacity that strengthens national and global public health response and disease surveillance.