Indirect Rotavirus Vaccine Effectiveness for the Prevention of Rotavirus Hospitalization: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Effectiveness of self-financed rotavirus vaccines on acute gastroenteritis primary care episodes using real-world data in Spain: a propensity score-matched analysis of cohort study

The objective of this study was to estimate, by a novel spatiotemporal approach in an environment of non-funded rotavirus (RV) vaccines, the RV vaccine effectiveness (VE) to prevent acute gastroenteritis primary care (AGE-PC)-attended episodes, demonstrating how indirect protection leads to underestimation of direct VE under high vaccine coverage (VC). This population-based retrospective cohort study used electronic healthcare registries including all children 2 months-5 years old, born from 2009 to 2018 in the Valencia Region (Spain). Direct RV VE preventing AGE-PC episodes was estimated using propensity score matching and Poisson regressions stratified by VC, adjusted by age and calendar season. Indirect VE was estimated by Poisson regression comparing AGE-PC rates in unvaccinated children among the different VC levels. A total of 563,442 children were included for the RV VC estimation; of them, 360,576 were included in the birth-cohort for VE analysis. RV VC showed strong variability among districts and seasons, rising on average from 21% in 2009/2010 to 55% in 2017/2018. The highest direct VE was found in vaccinated children from districts with 0-30% RV VC (16.4%) and the lowest in those from districts with ≥ 70% RV VC (9.7%). The indirect protection in unvaccinated children raised from 6 to 16.6% for those living with 20-30% and ≥ 70% VC, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Considering that RV is the causative agent in 20% of AGE cases, a direct effectiveness of 82% preventing AGE-PC episodes due to RV could be deduced using a novel spatiotemporal approach. A reduction of 17% of AGE-PC episodes in unvaccinated was observed in areas with VC over 70% because of indirect protection.

WHAT IS KNOWN

• The effectiveness of RV vaccines preventing hospitalizations due to RV-acute gastroenteritis (RV-AGE) has been extensively studied. However, RV also burdens the primary care (PC) setting, and data on vaccine effectiveness (VE) in preventing AGE-PC visits are scarce. • The RV vaccine distribution in Spain (non-funded), with large differences in vaccine coverage (VC) among healthcare districts, provides an ideal scenario to assess the actual VE in preventing AGE-PC consultations, including the direct and indirect protection.

WHAT IS NEW

• A direct effectiveness of 82% preventing AGE-PC episodes due to RV could be deduced using a novel spatiotemporal approach. A reduction of 17% of AGE-PC episodes in unvaccinated was observed in areas with high VC because of indirect protection. • These findings, together with existing data on the impact on hospitalizations due to RV-AGE, offer valuable insights for implementing vaccination initiatives in countries that have not yet commenced such programs.

Estimating the global impact of rotavirus vaccines on child mortality

OBJECTIVES

We estimated the global impact of rotavirus vaccines on deaths among children under five years old by year.

METHODS

We used a proportionate outcomes model with a finely disaggregated age structure to estimate rotavirus deaths prevented by vaccination over the period 2006-2019 in 186 countries. We ran deterministic and probabilistic uncertainty analyses and compared our estimates to surveillance-based estimates in 20 countries.

RESULTS

We estimate that rotavirus vaccines prevented 139,000 under-five rotavirus deaths (95% uncertainty interval 98,000-201,000) in the period 2006-2019. In 2019 alone, rotavirus vaccines prevented 15% (95% uncertainty interval 11-21%) of under-five rotavirus deaths (0.5% of child mortality). Assuming global use of rotavirus vaccines and coverage equivalent to other co-administered vaccines could prevent 37% of under-five rotavirus deaths (1.2% of child mortality). Our estimates were sensitive to the choice of rotavirus mortality burden data and several vaccine impact modeling assumptions. The World Health Organization's recommendation to remove age restrictions in 2012 could have prevented up to 17,000 rotavirus deaths in the period 2013-2019. Our modeled estimates of rotavirus vaccine impact were broadly consistent with estimates from post-vaccination surveillance sites.

CONCLUSION

Rotavirus vaccines have made a valuable contribution to global public health. Enhanced rotavirus mortality prevention strategies are needed in countries with high mortality in under-5-year-old children.

Rotavirus vaccine product switch in Ghana: An assessment of service delivery costs, switching costs, and cost-effectiveness

Ghana introduced rotavirus vaccine (ROTARIX 1-dose presentation) into the routine national immunization program in 2012 and switched to a different product (ROTAVAC 5-dose presentation) in 2020. ROTAVAC has a lower price per dose (US$0.85 versus US$2.15 for ROTARIX) and smaller cold chain footprint but requires more doses per regimen (three versus two). This study estimates the supply chain and service delivery costs associated with each product, the costs involved in switching products, and compares the cost-effectiveness of both products over the next ten years. We estimated the supply chain and service delivery costs associated with ROTARIX and ROTAVAC (evaluating both the 5-dose and 10-dose presentations) using primary data collected from health facilities in six of the 14 regions in the country. We estimated the costs of switching from ROTARIX to ROTAVAC using information collected from key informant interviews and financial records provided by the government. All costs were reported in 2020 US$. We used the UNIVAC decision-support model to evaluate the cost-effectiveness (US$ per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) averted from government and societal perspectives) of ROTARIX and ROTAVAC (5-dose or 10-dose presentations) compared to no vaccination, and to each other, over a ten-year period (2020 to 2029). We ran probabilistic sensitivity analyses and other threshold analyses. The supply chain and service delivery economic cost per dose was $2.40 for ROTARIX, $1.81 for ROTAVAC 5-dose, and $1.76 for ROTAVAC 10-dose. The financial and economic cost of switching from ROTARIX to ROTAVAC 5-dose was $453,070 and $883,626, respectively. Compared to no vaccination, the cost per DALY averted was $360 for ROTARIX, $298 for ROTAVAC 5-dose, and $273 for ROTAVAC 10-dose. ROTAVAC 10-dose was the most cost-effective option and would be cost-effective at willingness-to-pay thresholds exceeding 0.12 times the national GDP per capita ($2,206 in the year 2020). The switch from ROTARIX to ROTAVAC 5-dose in 2020 was cost-saving. Rotavirus vaccination is highly cost-effective in Ghana. A switch from ROTAVAC 5-dose to ROTAVAC 10-dose would be cost-saving and should be considered.

Predicting indirect effects of rotavirus vaccination programs on rotavirus mortality among children in 112 countries

Rotavirus is a leading cause of diarrhea deaths in children, particularly in low-to-middle income countries (LMICs). Licensed rotavirus vaccines provide strong direct protection, but their indirect effect-the protection due to reduced transmission-is not fully understood. We aimed to quantify the population-level effects of rotavirus vaccination and identify factors that drive indirect protection. We used an SIR-like transmission model to estimate the indirect effects of vaccination on rotavirus deaths in 112 LMICs. We performed a regression analysis to identify predictors of indirect effect magnitude (linear regression) and the occurrence of negative indirect effects (logistic regression). Indirect effects contributed to vaccine impacts in all regions, with effect sizes 8-years post-vaccine introduction ranging from 16.9% in the WHO European region to 1.0% in the Western Pacific region. Indirect effect estimates were higher in countries with higher under-5 mortality, higher vaccine coverage, and lower birth rates. Of the 112 countries analyzed, 18 (16%) had at least 1 year with a predicted negative indirect effect. Negative indirect effects were more common in countries with higher birth rate, lower under-5 mortality and lower vaccine coverage. Rotavirus vaccination may have a larger impact than would be expected from direct effects alone, but the impact of these indirect effects is expected to vary by country.

Сost-effectiveness of pentavalent rotavirus vaccination in the Russian Federation

   One of the main causes of acute gastroenteritis in children under 5 years of age is rotavirus infection (RVI). Vaccines against RVI significantly reduce the incidence.   Aim. To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of mass vaccination of children with a 5-valent RVI vaccine in the Russian Federation.   Materials and methods. The assessment was carried out using modeling based on published data on the effectiveness of the vaccine and epidemiological indicators in the Russian Federation. The analysis was carried out from the perspective of the health care system and society as a whole with a 5-year horizon. The cost of RVI therapy corresponded to the compulsory health insurance tariffs for St. Petersburg for 2022, the price of 1 dose of the vaccine was the registered price, including VAT. Costs and life expectancy, taking into account quality, were discounted at 3.5 % per year.   Results. Given the assumptions made, routine vaccination will prevent an average of 468,637 cases of RVI over 5 years. Avoided direct medical costs, i. e. RVI treatment costs will amount to 53,4 %, and lost income due to temporary disability – 46,6 % of the total avoided costs. At the same time, the volume of avoided costs is 61,4 % due to a decrease in morbidity in the vaccinated population, and 38.6 % due to the development of a indirect effect. The predicted avoided costs per 1 vaccinated person is 2,975 thousand rubles. From a societal perspective, the cost-effectiveness of the Rota-V-Aid vaccine will be 364,813 thousand rubles / QALY (quality-adjusted life year), and from a healthcare perspective – 1726,399 thousand rubles / QALY. Thus, in both cases, the cost-effectiveness of RVI vaccination will not exceed the generally accepted threshold of willingness to pay, equal to three times the gross domestic product per capita in the Russian Federation (according to data for 2021 – ~2,7 million rubles). The predicted cost-effectiveness of selective vaccination is significantly lower than that of mass vaccination.   Conclusions. Mass vaccination of children with a 5-valent vaccine against RVI will not only reduce the incidence in the Russian Federation, but, taking into account the assumptions made, can also be considered as a cost-effective intervention.

Community-level interventions for mitigating the risk of waterborne diarrheal diseases: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Waterborne diarrhea diseases are among the leading causes of morbidity and mortality globally. These diseases can be mitigated by implementing various interventions. We reviewed the literature to identify available interventions to mitigate the risk of waterborne diarrheal diseases.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic database review of CINAHL (Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature), PubMed, Web of Science Core Collection, Cochrane library, Scopus, African Index Medicus (AIM), and LILACS (Latin American and Caribbean Health Sciences Literature). Our search was limited to articles published between 2009 and 2020. We conducted the review using the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) statement checklist. The identified studies were qualitatively synthesized.

RESULTS

Our initial search returned 28 773 articles of which 56 studies met the inclusion criteria. The included studies reported interventions, including vaccines for rotavirus disease (monovalent, pentavalent, and Lanzhou lamb vaccine); enhanced water filtration for preventing cryptosporidiosis, Vi polysaccharide for typhoid; cholera 2-dose vaccines, water supply, water treatment and safe storage, household disinfection, and hygiene promotion for controlling cholera outbreaks.

CONCLUSION

We retrieved few studies on interventions against waterborne diarrheal diseases in low-income countries. Interventions must be specific to each type of waterborne diarrheal disease to be effective. Stakeholders must ensure collaboration in providing and implementing multiple interventions for the best outcomes.

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION

PROSPERO CRD42020190411 .

Understanding Rotavirus Vaccine Efficacy and Effectiveness in Countries with High Child Mortality

Rotavirus claims thousands of lives of children globally every year with a disproportionately high burden in low- and lower-middle income countries where access to health care is limited. Oral, live-attenuated rotavirus vaccines have been evaluated in multiple settings in both low- and high-income populations and have been shown to be safe and efficacious. However, the vaccine efficacy observed in low-income settings with high rotavirus and diarrheal mortality was significantly lower than that seen in high-income populations where rotavirus mortality is less common. Rotavirus vaccines have been introduced and rolled out in more than 112 countries, providing the opportunity to assess effectiveness of the vaccines in these different settings. We provide an overview of the efficacy, effectiveness, and impact of rotavirus vaccines, focusing on high-mortality settings and identify the knowledge gaps for future research. Despite lower efficacy, rotavirus vaccines substantially reduce diarrheal disease and mortality and are cost-effective in countries with high burden. Continued evaluation of the effectiveness, impact, and cost–benefit of rotavirus vaccines, especially the new candidates that have been recently approved for global use, is a key factor for new vaccine introductions in countries, or for a switch of vaccine product in countries with limited resources.

Rotavirus Vaccine Safety and Effectiveness in Infants With High-Risk Medical Conditions

OBJECTIVES

Rotavirus vaccination has 87% to 100% effectiveness against severe rotavirus acute gastroenteritis (AGE) in healthy infants in high-income countries. Little is known whether infants with medical risk conditions (MRCs) are equally protected and if the vaccine is equally well tolerated. We conducted a quasi-experimental prospective multicenter before-after cohort study to assess the vaccine effectiveness (VE) and safety profile of the human rotavirus vaccine (HRV) among MRC infants that required prolonged or frequent postnatal care.

METHODS

The Netherlands has no national rotavirus immunization program, but HRV was implemented in routine care for MRC infants in 13 Dutch hospitals. Participants in the before and after cohort, HRV unvaccinated and vaccinated, respectively, were followed for occurrence of (rotavirus) AGE. VE of at least 1 dose was estimated by using time-to-event analysis for severe rotavirus AGE. Vaccine-related serious adverse event (AEs) after HRV were retrieved systematically from medical charts. Solicited AEs after vaccinations were prospectively collected and compared between vaccination time points with or without HRV.

RESULTS

In total, 1482 high-risk infants with MRC were enrolled, including 631 in the before and 851 in the after cohorts; 1302 infants were premature (88.3%), 447 were small for gestational age (30.2%), and 251 had at least 1 congenital disorder (17.0%). VE against severe rotavirus AGE was 30% (95% confidence interval [CI]: -36% to 65%). Overall, the observed number of rotavirus hospitalizations was low and not significantly different between the cohorts (2 and 2, respectively). The rate of vaccine-related serious AE was 0.24 per 100 vaccine doses. The adjusted risk ratio for any AE after HRV vaccination compared with other routine vaccinations was 1.09 (95% CI: 1.05 to 1.12) for concomitant administration and 0.91 (95% CI: 0.81 to 0.99) for single HRV administration. Gastrointestinal AEs were 10% more frequent after HRV.

CONCLUSIONS

In contrast to previous findings among healthy term infants, in routine use, HRV offered limited protection to vulnerable medical risk infants. HRV is generally well tolerated in this group in single administration, but when coadministered with routine vaccines, it is associated with higher risk of (mostly gastrointestinal) AE. Our study highlights the importance of studying vaccine performance in subgroups of medically vulnerable infants.

Rotavirus gastroenteritis hospitalizations in provinces with different vaccination coverage rates in Spain, 2013-2018

BACKGROUND

Rotavirus (RV) vaccines are available in Spain since 2006 but are not included in the National Immunization Program. RV vaccination has reached an intermediate vaccination coverage rate (VCR) but with substantial differences between provinces. The aim of this study was to assess the ratio of RV gastroenteritis (RVGE) admissions to all-cause hospitalizations in children under 5 years of age in areas with different VCR.

METHODS

Observational, multicenter, cross-sectional, medical record-based study. All children admitted to the study hospitals with a RVGE confirmed diagnosis during a 5-year period were selected. The annual ratio of RVGE to the total number of all-cause hospitalizations in children < 5 years of age were calculated. The proportion of RVGE hospitalizations were compared in areas with low (< 30%), intermediate (31-59%) and high (> 60%) VCR.

RESULTS

From June 2013 to May 2018, data from 1731 RVGE hospitalizations (16.47% of which were nosocomial) were collected from the 12 study hospitals. RVGE hospital admissions accounted for 2.82% (95 CI 2.72-3.00) and 43.84% (95% CI 40.53-47.21) of all-cause and Acute Gastroenteritis (AGE) hospitalizations in children under 5 years of age, respectively. The likelihood of hospitalization due to RVGE was 56% (IC95%, 51-61%) and 27% (IC95%, 18-35%) lower in areas with high and intermediate VCR, respectively, compared to the low VCR areas.

CONCLUSIONS

RVGE hospitalization ratios are highly dependent on the RV VCR. Increasing VCR in areas with intermediate and low coverage rates would significantly reduce the severe burden of RVGE that requires hospital management in Spain. Clinical trial registration Not applicable.

Quantification and Trends of Rotavirus and Enterovirus in Untreated Sewage Using Reverse Transcription Droplet Digital PCR

The quantification and trends in concentrations for naturally occurring rotaviruses (RV) and enteroviruses (EV) in untreated sewage in various wastewater systems have not often been compared. There is now greater interest in monitoring the infections in the community including live vaccine efficacy by evaluating untreated sewage. The goals of this study were to 1) survey the concentrations of naturally occurring RV and EV in untreated sewage using a reverse transcription-droplet digital polymerase chain reaction (RT-ddPCR) and 2) investigate the use of a new adsorption elution (bag-mediated filtration system (BMFS) using ViroCap filters) against more traditional polyethylene glycol (PEG) precipitation for virus concentration. Sewage samples were collected from lagoons in Kenya and Michigan (MI), the United States (USA) and from wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) in the USA. RVs were detected at geometric mean concentrations in various locations, California (CA) 1.31 × 10⁵ genome copies/L (gc/L), Kenya (KE) 2.71 × 10⁴ gc/L and Virginia (VA) 1.48 × 10⁵ gc/L, and EVs geometric means were 3.72 × 10⁶ gc/L (CA), 1.18 × 10⁴ gc/L (Kenya), and 6.18 × 10³ gc/L (VA). The mean RV concentrations using BMFS-ViroCap in split samples compared to PEG precipitation methods demonstrated that the levels were only 9% (#s BMFS/PEG) in the Michigan lagoons which was significantly different (p < 0.01). This suggests that RV concentrations in Kenya are around 1.69 × 10⁶ gc/L. Overall, there was no difference in concentrations for the other sampling locations across the methods of virus recovery (i.e., PEG precipitation and HA filters) using one-way ANOVA (F = 1.7, p = 0.2739) or Tukey-Kramer pairwise comparisons (p > 0.05). This study provides useful data on RV and EV concentrations in untreated sewage in Kenya and the USA. It also highlights on the usefulness of the RT-ddPCR for absolute quantification of RV and EV in sewage samples. The BMFS using ViroCap filters while less efficient compared to the more traditional PEG precipitation method was able to recover RVs and EVs in untreated sewage and may be useful in poor resource settings while underestimating viruses by 1 to 1.5 logs.

Effect of childhood rotavirus vaccination on community rotavirus prevalence in rural Ecuador, 2008-13

BACKGROUND

Although live attenuated monovalent human rotavirus vaccine (Rotarix) efficacy has been characterized through randomized studies, its effectiveness, especially in non-clinical settings, is less clear. In this study, we estimate the impact of childhood Rotarix® vaccination on community rotavirus prevalence.

METHODS

We analyse 10 years of serial population-based diarrhoea case-control study, which also included testing for rotavirus infection (n = 3430), and 29 months of all-cause diarrhoea active surveillance from a child cohort (n = 376) from rural Ecuador during a period in which Rotarix vaccination was introduced. We use weighted logistic regression from the case-control data to assess changes in community rotavirus prevalence (both symptomatic and asymptomatic) and all-cause diarrhoea after the vaccine was introduced. We also assess changes in all-cause diarrhoea rates in the child cohort (born 2008-13) using Cox regression, comparing time to first all-cause diarrhoea case by vaccine status.

RESULTS

Overall, vaccine introduction among age-eligible children was associated with a 82.9% reduction [95% confidence interval (CI): 49.4%, 94.2%] in prevalence of rotavirus in participants without diarrhoea symptoms and a 46.0% reduction (95% CI: 6.2%, 68.9%) in prevalence of rotavirus infection among participants experiencing diarrhoea. Whereas all age groups benefited, this reduction was strongest among the youngest age groups. For young children, prevalence of symptomatic diarrhoea also decreased in the post-vaccine period in both the case-control study (reduction in prevalence for children <1 year of age = 69.3%, 95% CI: 8.7%, 89.7%) and the cohort study (reduction in hazard for receipt of two Rotarix doses among children aged 0.5-2 years = 57.1%, 95% CI: 16.6, 77.9%).

CONCLUSIONS

Rotarix vaccination may suppress transmission, including asymptomatic transmission, in low- and middle-income settings. It was highly effective among children in a rural community setting and provides population-level benefits through indirect protection among adults.

Cost-effectiveness and budget impact analyses for the prioritisation of the four available rotavirus vaccines in the national immunisation programme in Thailand

BACKGROUND

Rotavirus is a major cause of diarrhoea in children less than five years old in Thailand. Vaccination has been shown to be an effective intervention to prevent rotavirus infections but has yet to be enlisted in the national immunisation programme. This study aimed to assess the cost-utility of introducing rotavirus vaccines, taking all WHO-prequalified vaccines into consideration.

METHODS

A cost-utility analysis was performed using a transmission dynamic model to estimate, from a societal perspective, the costs and outcomes of four WHO-prequalified rotavirus vaccines: Rotarix®, RotaTeq®, ROTAVAC® and ROTASIIL®. The model was used to simulate the impact of introducing the vaccines among children aged < 1 year and compare this with no rotavirus vaccination. The vaccination programme was considered to be cost-effective if the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was less than a threshold of USD 5,110 per QALY gained.

RESULTS

Overall, without the vaccine, the model predicted the average annual incidence of rotavirus to be 312,118 cases. With rotavirus vaccination at a coverage of more than 95%, the average number of rotavirus cases averted was estimated to be 144,299 per year. All rotavirus vaccines were cost-saving. ROTASIIL® was the most cost-saving option, followed by ROTAVAC®, Rotarix® and RotaTeq®, providing average cost-savings of USD 32, 31, 23 and 22 million per year, respectively, with 999 QALYs gained. All vaccines remained cost-saving with lower QALYs gained, even when ignoring indirect beneficial effects. The net saving to the healthcare system when implementing any one of these vaccines would be between USD 13 and 33 million per year.

CONCLUSION

Rotavirus vaccines should be included in the national vaccination programme in Thailand. Implementing any one of these four WHO-prequalified vaccines would reduce government healthcare spending while yielding health benefits to the population.

Update on rotavirus vaccine underperformance in low- to middle-income countries and next-generation vaccines

In the decade since oral rotavirus vaccines (ORV) were recommended by the World Health Organization for universal inclusion in all national immunization programs, significant yet incomplete progress has been made toward reducing the burden of rotavirus in low- to middle-income countries (LMIC). ORVs continue to demonstrate effectiveness and impact in LMIC, yet numerous factors hinder optimal performance and evaluation of these vaccines. This review will provide an update on ORV performance in LMIC, the increasing body of literature regarding factors that affect ORV response, and the status of newer and next-generation rotavirus vaccines as of early 2020. Fully closing the gap in rotavirus prevention between LMIC and high-income countries will likely require a multifaceted approach accounting for biological and methodological challenges and evaluation and roll-out of newer and next-generation vaccines.

Impact of Rotavirus Vaccines on Gastroenteritis Hospitalizations in Western Australia: A Time-series Analysis

Background

Rotavirus vaccination was introduced into the Australian National Immunisation Program in mid-2007. We aimed to assess the impact of the rotavirus vaccination program on the burden of hospitalizations associated with all-cause acute gastroenteritis (including rotavirus gastroenteritis and non-rotavirus gastroenteritis) in the Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal population in Western Australia.

Methods

We identified all hospital records, between July 2004 and June 2012, with a discharge diagnosis code for all-cause gastroenteritis. Age-specific hospitalization rates for rotavirus and non-rotavirus acute gastroenteritis before and after the introduction of the rotavirus vaccination program were compared. Interrupted time-series models were used to examine differences in the annual trends of all-cause gastroenteritis hospitalization between the two periods.

Results

Between July 2004 and June 2012, there were a total of 106,974 all-cause gastroenteritis-coded hospitalizations (1,381 rotavirus-coded [15% among Aboriginal] and 105,593 non-rotavirus gastroenteritis-coded [7% among Aboriginal]). Following rotavirus vaccination introduction, significant reductions in rotavirus-coded hospitalization rates were observed in all children aged <5 years (up to 79% among non-Aboriginal and up to 66% among Aboriginal). Among adults aged ≥65 years, rotavirus-coded hospitalizations were 89% (95% confidence interval, 16–187%) higher in the rotavirus vaccination program period. The time-series analysis suggested reductions in all-cause gastroenteritis hospitalizations in the post-vaccination period among both vaccinated and unvaccinated (age-ineligible) children, with increases observed in adults aged ≥45 years.

Conclusions

Rotavirus vaccination has been associated with a significant decline in gastroenteritis hospitalizations among children. The increase in the elderly requires further evaluation, including assessment of the cost-benefits of rotavirus vaccination in this population.

Accounting for indirect protection in the benefit-risk ratio estimation of rotavirus vaccination in children under the age of 5 years, France, 2018

Background Rotavirus is a major cause of severe gastroenteritis in children worldwide. The disease burden has been substantially reduced in countries where rotavirus vaccines are used. Given the risk of vaccine-induced intussusception, the benefit–risk balance of rotavirus vaccination has been assessed in several countries, however mostly without considering indirect protection effects. Aim We performed a benefit–risk analysis of rotavirus vaccination accounting for indirect protection in France among the 2018 population of children under the age of 5 years. Methods To incorporate indirect protection effects in the benefit formula, we adopted a pseudo-vaccine approach involving mathematical approximation and used a simulation design to provide uncertainty intervals. We derived background incidence distributions from quasi-exhaustive health claim data. We examined different coverage levels and assumptions regarding the waning effects and intussusception case fatality rate. Results With the current vaccination coverage of < 10%, the indirect effectiveness was estimated at 6.4% (+/− 0.4). For each hospitalisation for intussusception, 277.0 (95% uncertainty interval: (165.0–462.1)) hospitalisations for rotavirus gastroenteritis were prevented. Should 90% of infants be vaccinated, indirect effectiveness would reach 57.9% (+/− 3.7) and the benefit–risk ratio would be 192.4 (95% uncertainty interval: 116.4–321.3). At a coverage level of 50%, indirect protection accounted for 27% of the prevented rotavirus gastroenteritis cases. The balance remained in favour of the vaccine even in a scenario with a high assumption for intussusception case fatality. Conclusions These findings contribute to a better assessment of the rotavirus vaccine benefit–risk balance.

Evaluating strategies to improve rotavirus vaccine impact during the second year of life in Malawi

Rotavirus vaccination has substantially reduced the incidence of rotavirus-associated gastroenteritis (RVGE) in high-income countries, but vaccine impact and estimated effectiveness are lower in low-income countries for reasons that are poorly understood. We used mathematical modeling to quantify rotavirus vaccine impact and investigate reduced vaccine effectiveness, particularly during the second year of life, in Malawi, where vaccination was introduced in October 2012 with doses at 6 and 10 weeks. We fitted models to 12 years of prevaccination data and validated the models against postvaccination data to evaluate the magnitude and duration of vaccine protection. The observed rollout of vaccination in Malawi was predicted to lead to a 26 to 77% decrease in the overall incidence of moderate-to-severe RVGE in 2016, depending on assumptions about waning of vaccine-induced immunity and heterogeneity in vaccine response. Vaccine effectiveness estimates were predicted to be higher among 4- to 11-month-olds than 12- to 23-month-olds, even when vaccine-induced immunity did not wane, due to differences in the rate at which vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals acquire immunity from natural infection. We found that vaccine effectiveness during the first and second years of life could potentially be improved by increasing the proportion of infants who respond to vaccination or by lowering the rotavirus transmission rate. An additional dose of rotavirus vaccine at 9 months of age was predicted to lead to higher estimated vaccine effectiveness but to only modest (5 to 16%) reductions in RVGE incidence over the first 3 years after introduction, regardless of assumptions about waning of vaccine-induced immunity.

Identifying signatures of the impact of rotavirus vaccines on hospitalizations using sentinel surveillance data from Latin American countries

BACKGROUND

Passive surveillance data are often the only available source of data that can be used to evaluate the population-level impact of vaccination, but such data often suffer from important limitations such as changes in surveillance efforts. This study provides an example of how to identify important signatures of rotavirus vaccine impact, including evaluating the overall effectiveness and changes in rotavirus seasonal dynamics.

METHODS

We used data from a standardized sentinel rotavirus surveillance network in six Latin American countries (Bolivia, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Paraguay, and Venezuela) from 2004 to 2017. A random-effects model was used to evaluate changes in the proportion of rotavirus-associated hospitalizations following vaccine introduction. Harmonic regression models were used to estimate vaccine impact on the number of rotavirus hospitalizations, controlling for trends in rotavirus-negative cases. Changes to rotavirus seasonality were evaluated using center of gravity analysis, wavelet analysis, and harmonic regression.

RESULTS

All countries observed declines in the proportion of rotavirus-positive acute diarrhea samples with a mean reduction of 16% (95% confidence interval: 10-22%). We estimate that each 10% increase in vaccine coverage was associated with declines in the number of rotavirus-positive cases, ranging from 4.3% (1.3-7.2%) in Honduras to 21.4% (16.8-25.9%) in Venezuela. The strength of the seasonal peak in rotavirus incidence became smaller after vaccine introduction in Guatemala, Honduras, and Venezuela. Seasonal peaks also shifted later in the surveillance year, especially in higher-mortality countries.

CONCLUSIONS

The combination of methods we applied have different strengths that allow us to identify common signatures of rotavirus vaccine impact.

Equity and impact: Ontario's infant rotavirus immunization program five years following implementation. A population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND

Ontario implemented a publicly-funded rotavirus (RV) immunization program in 2011. Our objectives were to evaluate its impact on hospitalizations and emergency department (ED) visits for acute gastroenteritis (AGE) five years after implementation.

METHODS

We performed a population-based longitudinal retrospective cohort study to identify hospitalizations and ED visits for RV-AGE and overall AGE in all age groups using ICD-10 codes between August 1, 2005 and March 31, 2016. A negative binomial regression model that included the effect of time was used to calculate rates, rate ratios (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for AGE before and after the program's implementation, after adjusting for age, seasonality and secular trends. We examined the seasonality of RV-AGE hospitalizations among children under five before and after the program and explored its equity impact.

RESULTS

Following program implementation, RV-AGE hospitalizations and ED visits among children under five years declined by 76% (RR 0.24, 95% CI 0.20-0.28) and 68% (RR 0.32, 95% CI 0.21-0.50), respectively. In addition, hospitalizations and ED visits for overall AGE declined by 38% (RR 0.62, 95% CI 0.59-0.65) and 26% (RR 0.74, 95% CI 0.73-0.76), respectively, among children under age five. Significant reductions in both outcomes were also found across a range of age-strata. In the pre-program period, the mean monthly hospitalization rate for RV-AGE among children residing in the most marginalized neighbourhoods was 33% higher than those residing in the least marginalized (RR 1.33, 95% CI 1.17-1.52), this disparity was not evident in the program period (RR 0.95, 95% CI 0.69-1.32). We found no evidence of a seasonal shift in rotavirus pediatric hospitalizations.

INTERPRETATION

The introduction of routine infant rotavirus immunization has had a substantial population impact in Ontario. Our study confirms herd effects and suggests the program may have reduced previous inequities in the burden of pediatric rotavirus hospitalizations.