Seroprevalence and Symptomatic Attack Rate of Chikungunya Virus Infection, United States Virgin Islands, 2014-2015

Chikungunya seroprevalence, force of infection, and prevalence of chronic disability after infection in endemic and epidemic settings: a systematic review, meta-analysis, and modelling study

BACKGROUND

Chikungunya is an arboviral disease transmitted by Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquitoes with a growing global burden linked to climate change and globalisation. We aimed to estimate chikungunya seroprevalence, force of infection (FOI), and prevalence of related chronic disability and hospital admissions in endemic and epidemic settings.

METHODS

In this systematic review, meta-analysis, and modelling study, we searched PubMed, Ovid, and Web of Science for articles published from database inception until Sept 26, 2022, for prospective and retrospective cross-sectional studies that addressed serological chikungunya virus infection in any geographical region, age group, and population subgroup and for longitudinal prospective and retrospective cohort studies with data on chronic chikungunya or hospital admissions in people with chikungunya. We did a systematic review of studies on chikungunya seroprevalence and fitted catalytic models to each survey to estimate location-specific FOI (ie, the rate at which susceptible individuals acquire chikungunya infection). We performed a meta-analysis to estimate the proportion of symptomatic patients with laboratory-confirmed chikungunya who had chronic chikungunya or were admitted to hospital following infection. We used a random-effects model to assess the relationship between chronic sequelae and follow-up length using linear regression. The systematic review protocol is registered online on PROSPERO, CRD42022363102.

FINDINGS

We identified 60 studies with data on seroprevalence and chronic chikungunya symptoms done across 76 locations in 38 countries, and classified 17 (22%) of 76 locations as endemic settings and 59 (78%) as epidemic settings. The global long-term median annual FOI was 0·007 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 0·003-0·010) and varied from 0·0001 (0·00004-0·0002) to 0·113 (0·07-0·20). The highest estimated median seroprevalence at age 10 years was in south Asia (8·0% [95% UI 6·5-9·6]), followed by Latin America and the Caribbean (7·8% [4·9-14·6]), whereas median seroprevalence was lowest in the Middle East (1·0% [0·5-1·9]). We estimated that 51% (95% CI 45-58) of people with laboratory-confirmed symptomatic chikungunya had chronic disability after infection and 4% (3-5) were admitted to hospital following infection.

INTERPRETATION

We inferred subnational heterogeneity in long-term average annual FOI and transmission dynamics and identified both endemic and epidemic settings across different countries. Brazil, Ethiopia, Malaysia, and India included both endemic and epidemic settings. Long-term average annual FOI was higher in epidemic settings than endemic settings. However, long-term cumulative incidence of chikungunya can be similar between large outbreaks in epidemic settings with a high FOI and endemic settings with a relatively low FOI.

FUNDING

International Vaccine Institute.

Cryptic circulation of chikungunya virus in São Jose do Rio Preto, Brazil, 2015-2019

BACKGROUND

Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) has spread across Brazil with varying incidence rates depending on the affected areas. Due to cocirculation of arboviruses and overlapping disease symptoms, CHIKV infection may be underdiagnosed. To understand the lack of CHIKV epidemics in São José do Rio Preto (SJdRP), São Paulo (SP), Brazil, we evaluated viral circulation by investigating anti-CHIKV IgG seroconversion in a prospective study of asymptomatic individuals and detecting anti-CHIKV IgM in individuals suspected of dengue infection, as well as CHIKV presence in Aedes mosquitoes. The opportunity to assess two different groups (symptomatic and asymptomatic) exposed at the same geographic region aimed to broaden the possibility of identifying the viral circulation, which had been previously considered absent.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Based on a prospective population study model and demographic characteristics (sex and age), we analyzed the anti-CHIKV IgG seroconversion rate in 341 subjects by ELISA over four years. The seroprevalence increased from 0.35% in the first year to 2.3% after 3 years of follow-up. Additionally, we investigated 497 samples from a blood panel collected from dengue-suspected individuals during the 2019 dengue outbreak in SJdRP. In total, 4.4% were positive for anti-CHIKV IgM, and 8.6% were positive for IgG. To exclude alphavirus cross-reactivity, we evaluated the presence of anti-Mayaro virus (MAYV) IgG by ELISA, and the positivity rate was 0.3% in the population study and 0.8% in the blood panel samples. In CHIKV and MAYV plaque reduction neutralization tests (PRNTs), the positivity rate for CHIKV-neutralizing antibodies in these ELISA-positive samples was 46.7%, while no MAYV-neutralizing antibodies were detected. Genomic sequencing and phylogenetic analysis revealed CHIKV genotype ECSA in São José do Rio Preto, SP. Finally, mosquitoes collected to complement human surveillance revealed CHIKV positivity of 2.76% of A. aegypti and 9.09% of A. albopictus (although it was far less abundant than A. aegypti) by RT-qPCR.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

Our data suggest cryptic CHIKV circulation in SJdRP detected by continual active surveillance. These low levels, but increasing, of viral circulation highlight the possibility of CHIKV outbreaks, as there is a large naïve population. Improved knowledge of the epidemiological situation might aid in outbreaks prevention.

Dynamics of chikungunya virus transmission in the first year after its introduction in Brazil: A cohort study in an urban community

BACKGROUND

The first chikungunya virus (CHIKV) outbreaks during the modern scientific era were identified in the Americas in 2013, reaching high attack rates in Caribbean countries. However, few cohort studies have been performed to characterize the initial dynamics of CHIKV transmission in the New World.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

To describe the dynamics of CHIKV transmission shortly after its introduction in Brazil, we performed semi-annual serosurveys in a long-term community-based cohort of 652 participants aged ≥5 years in Salvador, Brazil, between Feb-Apr/2014 and Nov/2016-Feb/2017. CHIKV infections were detected using an IgG ELISA. Cumulative seroprevalence and seroincidence were estimated and spatial aggregation of cases was investigated. The first CHIKV infections were identified between Feb-Apr/2015 and Aug-Nov/2015 (incidence: 10.7%) and continued to be detected at low incidence in subsequent surveys (1.7% from Aug-Nov/2015 to Mar-May/2016 and 1.2% from Mar-May/2016 to Nov/206-Feb/2017). The cumulative seroprevalence in the last survey reached 13.3%. It was higher among those aged 30-44 and 45-59 years (16.1% and 15.6%, respectively), compared to younger (12.4% and 11.7% in <15 and 15-29 years, respectively) or older (10.3% in ≥60 years) age groups, but the differences were not statistically significant. The cumulative seroprevalence was similar between men (14.7%) and women (12.5%). Yet, among those aged 15-29 years, men were more often infected than women (18.1% vs. 7.4%, respectively, P = 0.01), while for those aged 30-44, a non-significant opposite trend was observed (9.3% vs. 19.0%, respectively, P = 0.12). Three spatial clusters of cases were detected in the study site and an increased likelihood of CHIKV infection was detected among participants who resided with someone with CHIKV IgG antibodies.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

Unlike observations in other settings, the initial spread of CHIKV in this large urban center was limited and focal in certain areas, leaving a high proportion of the population susceptible to further outbreaks. Additional investigations are needed to elucidate the factors driving CHIKV spread dynamics, including understanding differences with respect to dengue and Zika viruses, in order to guide prevention and control strategies for coping with future outbreaks.

Global geotemporal distribution of chikungunya disease, 2011-2022

BACKGROUND

Chikungunya virus is a mosquito-borne alphavirus, transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes. Humans serve as the primary reservoir. Chikungunya infections typically appear with an abrupt onset of fever, rash, and severe joint pain. Some 40% of cases develop chronic rheumatologic complications that can persist months to years.

OBJECTIVES

To improve precision of risk characterization by analyzing cases of chikungunya by year and by country and depicting this geotemporal distribution in map form.

METHOD

Chikungunya case counts by year were compiled from national or regional health authorities from 2011 to 2022. These data were augmented by published reviews plus the Program for Monitoring Emerging Diseases (ProMED). Country-level distribution was categorized into four groups based on recency and magnitude. Data for India were mapped on a per-state basis.

RESULTS

The global map depicts distribution of chikungunya disease from 2011 through 2022. Most cases are reported in tropical and subtropical areas, but notable exceptions include the northern coast of the Mediterranean Sea. Countries of high recency and frequency include India, Brazil, Sudan, and Thailand. Countries with high frequency, but few cases reported in 2019-22 include many Latin American and Caribbean countries. Subnational foci are discussed in general and mapped for India. The range of Aedes mosquitoes is broader than the geography where chikungunya infection is typically diagnosed.

CONCLUSIONS

These maps help identify geographical regions where residents or travelers are at greatest risk of chikungunya. Once vaccines are licensed to help prevent chikungunya, maps like these can help guide future vaccine decision-making.

Epidemiology and Economic Burden of Chikungunya: A Systematic Literature Review

Chikungunya (CHIK) is a re-emerging viral infection endemic in tropical and subtropical areas. While the typical clinical presentation is an acute febrile syndrome, long-term articular complications and even death can occur. This review characterizes the global epidemiological and economic burden of chikungunya. The search included studies published from 2007 to 2022 in MEDLINE, Embase, LILACS, and SciELO for a thorough evaluation of the literature. Rayyan software was used for data analysis, and data were summarized descriptively and reported following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. Seventy-six publications were included. Chikungunya is widely distributed in the tropics, including Africa, Asia, South America, and Oceania/the Pacific Islands, and co-circulates with other simultaneous arboviruses such as DENV, ZIKV, and YFV. Chikungunya infection can lead to chronic articular manifestations with a significant impact on the quality of life in the long term. In addition, it generates absenteeism and economic and social losses and can cause fatal infections in vulnerable populations, mainly in high-risk patients with co-morbidities and at the extremes of age. Reported costs associated with CHIKV diseases are substantial and vary by region, age group, and public/private delivery of healthcare services. The chikungunya disease burden includes chronicity, severe infections, increased hospitalization risks, and associated mortality. The disease can impact the economy in several spheres, significantly affecting the health system and national economies. Understanding and measuring the full impact of this re-emerging disease is essential.

Chikungunya seroprevalence in population-based studies: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Seroprevalence studies about chikungunya infection are usually conducted after epidemics to estimate the magnitude of the attack. This study aimed to estimate the seroprevalence of CHIKV by WHO region, considering the periods of introduction of the virus in these regions and its potential to lead to epidemics.

METHODS

We systematically reviewed Medline/Pubmed, Embase, Lilacs, Scopus and Web of Science for original articles published up to 2020. Cohort, case-control and cross-sectional studies were eligible for inclusion, based on the results of laboratory diagnosis of previous or previous and recent infection. Those conducted with symptomatic individuals were excluded.

RESULTS

596 articles were identified, 197 full-text were reviewed and 64 were included, resulting in 71 seroprevalences. Most were cross-sectional studies (92%), between 2001 and 2020 (92%), with population of all ages (55%), conducted in Kenya (10.9%), Brazil (9.4%) and French Polynesia (7.8%). The pooled estimates were 24% (95%CI 19-29; I² = 99.7%; p < 0.00), being 21% (95%CI 13-30; I² = 99.5%; p < 0.00) for adults, 7% (95%CI 0-23; I² = 99.7%; p < 0.00) for children and 30% (95%CI 23-38; I² = 99.7%; p < 0.00) for all ages. The higher seroprevalences were found in African, the Americas and South-East Asian Regions.

CONCLUSIONS

The great heterogeneity of seroprevalences points to the persistence of viral circulation. Even where the seroprevalence is high, the population replacement and the absence of vaccines mean that the risk of virus spread and epidemics remains.

REGISTRATION

PROSPERO CRD42020166227.

Acceptability of a Chikungunya Virus Vaccine, United States Virgin Islands

Chikungunya virus, a mosquito-borne alphavirus, causes acute febrile illness with polyarthralgia. Groups at risk for severe disease include neonates, people with underlying medical conditions, and those aged ≥ 65 years. Several chikungunya vaccines are in late clinical development with licensure expected in the United States during 2023. We administered a questionnaire to randomly selected households in the U.S. Virgin Islands (USVI) to assess interest in a hypothetical chikungunya vaccine. Estimates were calibrated to age and sex of USVI population, and univariate and multivariable analyses were performed. Of 966 participants, 520 (adjusted 56%, 95% CI = 51-60%) were interested in receiving the vaccine. Of 446 participants not interested in vaccination, 203 (adjusted 47%, 95% CI = 41-52%) cited safety concerns as the reason. Educational efforts addressing vaccine safety concerns and risk factors for severe disease would likely improve vaccine acceptability and uptake among those most at risk.

Seroepidemiological survey on chikungunya in endemic zones for arboviruses in Brazil, 2019

This study aimed to identify the seroprevalence of chikungunya and its associated factors in the city of Quixadá, Ceará, Brazil. We also aimed to identify the spatial distribution patterns of positive cases. A cross-sectional survey was conducted with a questionnaire about clinical symptoms, socioeconomic and demographic factors, and a 10 ml blood sample was collected and analysed by ELISA. For the bivariate analysis, we use the chi-square test, a prevalence ratio and its 95% confidence interval. A robust Poisson hierarchical regression was used to adjust for confounders. The Kernel density was performed for the spatial analysis. A total of 409 samples were analysed; of them, 70.7% were seropositive for previous exposure to chikungunya virus (CHIKV). High seropositivity for CHIKV was higher in female participants (75.5%; PR = 1.23; 95% CI: 1.06-1.43), those aged 31 years or more (74.3%; PR = 1.62; 95% CI: 1.04-2.52), and those with elementary education level (75.0%; PR = 1.30; 95% CI: 1.06-1.60). There were also high seroprevalence in those with less than a minimum wage per month (89.5%; PR = 1.59; 95% CI: 1.11-2.30), housewives (87.5%; PR = 1.64; 95% CI: 1.24-2.18) and unemployed (80.0%; PR = 1.50; 95% CI: 1.10-2.06). After adjusting for age, morning stiffness was the only chikungunya symptom that remained associated (PR = 1.20; 95% CI: 1.06-1.37; p < .001). There was an area of high density of cases in the downtown and two areas of medium density in nearby regions. Otherwise, the higher seroprevalence rates were in the peripherical neighbourhoods. There is a hyperendemicity of CHIKV in Quixadá, and most cases are spatially contiguous. The main associated clinical sign is morning stiffness, but other factors such as low income and spending a longer time at home were significantly associated with higher seroprevalence.

Transmission of Chikungunya Virus in an Urban Slum, Brazil

After a chikungunya outbreak in Salvador, Brazil, we performed a cross-sectional, community-based study of 1,776 inhabitants to determine chikungunya virus (CHIKV) seroprevalence, identify factors associated with exposure, and estimate the symptomatic infection rate. From November 2016 through February 2017, we collected sociodemographic and clinical data by interview and tested serum samples for CHIKV IgG. CHIKV seroprevalence was 11.8% (95% CI 9.8%–13.7%), and 15.3% of seropositive persons reported an episode of fever and arthralgia. Infections were independently and positively associated with residences served by unpaved streets, a presumptive clinical diagnosis of chikungunya, and recall of an episode of fever with arthralgia in 2015–2016. Our findings indicate that the chikungunya outbreak in Salvador may not have conferred sufficient herd immunity to preclude epidemics in the near future. The unusually low frequency of symptomatic disease points to a need for further longitudinal studies to better investigate these findings.

Effects of Chikungunya virus immunity on Mayaro virus disease and epidemic potential

Mayaro virus (MAYV) causes an acute febrile illness similar to that produced by chikungunya virus (CHIKV), an evolutionary relative in the Semliki Forest virus complex of alphaviruses. MAYV emergence is typically sporadic, but recent isolations and outbreaks indicate that the virus remains a public health concern. Given the close phylogenetic and antigenic relationship between CHIKV and MAYV, and widespread distribution of CHIKV, we hypothesized that prior CHIKV immunity may affect MAYV pathogenesis and/or influence its emergence potential. We pre-exposed immunocompetent C57BL/6 and immunocompromised A129 or IFNAR mice to wild-type CHIKV, two CHIKV vaccines, or a live-attenuated MAYV vaccine, and challenged with MAYV. We observed strong cross-protection against MAYV for mice pre-exposed to wild-type CHIKV, and moderately but significantly reduced cross-protection from CHIKV-vaccinated animals. Immunity to other alphavirus or flavivirus controls provided no protection against MAYV disease or viremia. Mechanistic studies suggested that neutralizing antibodies alone can mediate this protection, with T-cells having no significant effect on diminishing disease. Finally, human sera obtained from naturally acquired CHIKV infection cross-neutralized MAYV at high titers in vitro. Altogether, our data suggest that CHIKV infection can confer cross-protective effects against MAYV, and the resultant reduction in viremia may limit the emergence potential of MAYV.

Chikungunya virus populations experience diversity- dependent attenuation and purifying intra-vector selection in Californian Aedes aegypti mosquitoes

Chikungunya virus (Togaviridae, Alphavirus; CHIKV) is a mosquito-borne global health threat that has been transmitted transiently in the southeastern United States. A primary CHIKV mosquito vector, Aedes aegypti, was recently established in the populous state of California, but the vector competence of Californian mosquitoes is unknown. Explosive CHIKV epidemics since 2004 have been associated with the acquisition of mosquito-adaptive mutations that enhance transmission by Ae. aegypti or Ae. albopictus. As a highly mutable RNA virus, CHIKV has the potential for extensive and rapid genetic diversification in vertebrate hosts and mosquito vectors. We previously demonstrated that expansion of CHIKV diversity in cell culture allows for greater adaptability to novel selection pressures, and that CHIKV fidelity variants are able to diversify more than wildtype (WT) CHIKV in mice. The evolution of intra-vector CHIKV populations and the correlation between CHIKV population diversity and infectivity and transmissibility in mosquitoes has not yet been studied. Here, we address these gaps in knowledge via experimental infection of Ae. aegypti from California with WT and fidelity variant CHIKV. We show that Ae. aegypti from California are highly competent vectors for CHIKV. We also report that CHIKV fidelity variants diversify more than WT in mosquitoes and exhibit attenuated infectivity at the level of the midgut. Furthermore, we demonstrate that intra-vector populations of CHIKV are subjected to purifying selection in mosquito bodies, and sequences of non-coding CHIKV regions are highly conserved. These findings will inform public health risk assessment for CHIKV in California and improve our understanding of constraints to CHIKV evolution in mosquitoes.

Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) is transmitted by Aedes aegypti mosquitoes and has caused explosive epidemics in Asia and the Americas since 2004. During mosquito infection, the CHIKV genome replicates with a high mutation rate to produce virus populations with high genetic diversity that facilitate virus evolution. With this study, we address three gaps in knowledge: 1) are Ae. aegypti mosquitoes from Los Angeles, California, capable of transmitting CHIKV, 2) what effect does increased CHIKV population diversity have on virus infection and transmission by mosquitoes, and 3) are there constraints to CHIKV evolution in mosquitoes? We use oral infection of Ae. aegypti mosquitoes originating from Los Angeles, California to demonstrate high laboratory transmission competence of CHIKV. We also show that oral infection of mosquitoes with CHIKV variants that produce more diverse populations are less able to infect mosquitoes than wildtype CHIKV populations. Lastly, our study provides evidence of genome-wide and regional constraints to CHIKV evolution within Ae. aegypti mosquitoes. Our results will inform public health risk assessments for potential CHIKV introduction in southern California and advance our understanding of the role of mosquitoes in CHIKV evolution.

Autocidal gravid ovitraps protect humans from chikungunya virus infection by reducing Aedes aegypti mosquito populations

Background

Public health responses to outbreaks of dengue, chikungunya, and Zika virus have been stymied by the inability to control the primary vector, Aedes aegypti mosquitos. Consequently, the need for novel approaches to Aedes vector control is urgent. Placement of three autocidal gravid ovitraps (AGO traps) in ~85% of homes in a community was previously shown to sustainably reduce the density of female Ae. aegypti by >80%. Following the introduction of chikungunya virus (CHIKV) to Puerto Rico, we conducted a seroprevalence survey to estimate the prevalence of CHIKV infection in communities with and without AGO traps and evaluate their effect on reducing CHIKV transmission.

Methods and findings

Multivariate models that calculated adjusted prevalence ratios (aPR) showed that among 175 and 152 residents of communities with and without AGO traps, respectively, an estimated 26.1% and 43.8% had been infected with CHIKV (aPR = 0.50, 95% CI: 0.37–0.91). After stratification by time spent in their community, protection from CHIKV infection was strongest among residents who reported spending many or all weekly daytime hours in their community:10.3% seropositive in communities with AGO traps vs. 48.7% in communities without (PR = 0.21, 95% CI: 0.11–0.41). The age-adjusted rate of fever with arthralgia attributable to CHIKV infection was 58% (95% CI: 46–66%). The monthly number of CHIKV-infected mosquitos and symptomatic residents were diminished in communities with AGO traps compared to those without.

Conclusions

These findings indicate that AGO traps are an effective tool that protects humans from infection with a virus transmitted by Ae. aegypti mosquitos. Future studies should evaluate their protective effectiveness in large, urban communities.

Aedes species mosquitos transmit pathogens of public health importance, including dengue, Zika, and chikungunya viruses. No tools exist to control these mosquitos that sustainably and effectively prevent human infections. Autocidal gravid ovitraps (AGO traps) have been shown to sustainably reduce Aedes populations by >80%. After chikungunya virus was introduced into Puerto Rico, we conducted serosurveys in communities with and without AGO traps. We observed a two-fold lower prevalence of chikungunya virus infection among residents of communities with AGO traps compared to communities without. Among infected residents of communities with traps, a significant proportion likely had been infected while outside their community. These findings indicate that AGO traps are an effective tool that protects humans from infection with pathogens transmitted by Aedes mosquitos.

Estimating the cost of illness and burden of disease associated with the 2014-2015 chikungunya outbreak in the U.S. Virgin Islands

Chikungunya virus (CHIKV), an alphavirus that causes fever and severe polyarthralgia, swept through the Americas in 2014 with almost 2 million suspected or confirmed cases reported by April 2016. In this study, we estimate the direct medical costs, cost of lost wages due to absenteeism, and years lived with disability (YLD) associated with the 2014–2015 CHIKV outbreak in the U.S. Virgin Islands (USVI). For this analysis, we used surveillance data from the USVI Department of Health, medical cost data from three public hospitals in USVI, and data from two studies of laboratory-positive cases up to 12 months post illness. On average, employed case-patients missed 9 days of work in the 12 months following their disease onset, which resulted in an estimated cost of $15.5 million. Estimated direct healthcare costs were $2.9 million for the first 2 months and $0.6 million for 3–12 months following the outbreak. The total estimated cost associated with the outbreak ranged from $14.8 to $33.4 million (approximately 1% of gross domestic product), depending on the proportion of the population infected with symptomatic disease, degree of underreporting, and proportion of cases who were employed. The estimated YLDs associated with long-term sequelae from the CHIKV outbreak in the USVI ranged from 599–1,322. These findings highlight the significant economic burden of the recent CHIKV outbreak in the USVI and will aid policy-makers in making informed decisions about prevention and control measures for inevitable, future CHIKV outbreaks.

Chikungunya, a virus carried and transmitted by mosquitoes, causes fever, headache, and severe joint pain in humans that often resolves within 7–10 days. However, a proportion of cases, up to 79% in some outbreaks, report persistent joint pain and chronic inflammatory rheumatism, resulting in decreased quality of life for months to years following initial infection. In 2014, chikungunya virus swept through the Americas, resulting in almost 2 million suspected or confirmed cases reported by April 2016. Previous studies have noted the large resource burden from chikungunya outbreaks, including high healthcare costs, lost wages due to absenteeism, and decreased quality of life for months following infection. Our work aimed to estimate the direct medical costs, cost of lost productivity due to absenteeism, and years lived with disability associated with the chikungunya outbreak in the U.S. Virgin Islands. This information may aid policy-makers in making informed decisions about prevention and control measures for inevitable, future chikungunya outbreaks.