Assessing the spillover effects of various forms of energy on CO2 emissions - An empirical study based on dynamic spatial Durbin model

Previous studies ignored the geospatial dynamics spillover effects of energy consumption on CO2 emissions while assessing such impacts in developed and developing countries. Moreover, most studies wrongfully assess spillover effects in its aggregated format rather than decomposing by its components. This is important as not all energy sources share the same characteristics. We fill these gaps in the literature by investigating the spillover effects of various forms of energy, including fossil fuels, renewable energy, and nuclear power, on CO2 emissions in 135 developed and developing countries from 2000 to 2019. We used the Dynamic Spatial Durbin Model (DSDM) to better understand the results. A series of indicative tests confirmed using the DSDM model and including spatial interaction of CO2 emissions in the analysis. Our findings show evidence of indirect spillover effects of the various energy sources on CO2 emissions. Further considering the spillover effects of the energy sources of neighbouring countries, the paper finds that the driving increase in CO2 emissions mainly came from the energy consumption of the country itself and neighbouring countries' energy consumption. Nevertheless, the results indicate that the direct effects of energy consumption often exceed its indirect effects. The results also confirm that total and fossil energy consumption harms the environment, whereas adopting renewable and nuclear energy sources reduces CO2 emissions. Lastly, we find nuclear energy is the most environmentally sustainable energy source. The study concludes that the Dynamic Spatial Durbin Model is paramount in estimating the environmental impact of energy consumption in our sample. The practical policy implications drawn from this study could be used to promote increased collaboration to hasten the energy transition process and address global warming and climate change.

Towards development of functional climate-driven early warning systems for climate-sensitive infectious diseases: Statistical models and recommendations

Climate, weather and environmental change have significantly influenced patterns of infectious disease transmission, necessitating the development of early warning systems to anticipate potential impacts and respond in a timely and effective way. Statistical modelling plays a pivotal role in understanding the intricate relationships between climatic factors and infectious disease transmission. For example, time series regression modelling and spatial cluster analysis have been employed to identify risk factors and predict spatial and temporal patterns of infectious diseases. Recently advanced spatio-temporal models and machine learning offer an increasingly robust framework for modelling uncertainty, which is essential in climate-driven disease surveillance due to the dynamic and multifaceted nature of the data. Moreover, Artificial Intelligence (AI) techniques, including deep learning and neural networks, excel in capturing intricate patterns and hidden relationships within climate and environmental data sets. Web-based data has emerged as a powerful complement to other datasets encompassing climate variables and disease occurrences. However, given the complexity and non-linearity of climate-disease interactions, advanced techniques are required to integrate and analyse these diverse data to obtain more accurate predictions of impending outbreaks, epidemics or pandemics. This article presents an overview of an approach to creating climate-driven early warning systems with a focus on statistical model suitability and selection, along with recommendations for utilizing spatio-temporal and machine learning techniques. By addressing the limitations and embracing the recommendations for future research, we could enhance preparedness and response strategies, ultimately contributing to the safeguarding of public health in the face of evolving climate challenges.

Canine Leishmania spp. infection in two distinct foci of visceral and cutaneous leishmaniasis in Tunisia

Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) and zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis (ZCL) caused by Leishmania (L.) infantum and L. major, respectively, are endemic in Tunisia. The aim of the study was to assess canine Leishmania spp. infection prevalence as well as to identify the Leishmania species involved in two well-documented and geographically distinct VL and ZCL foci. One hundred seventy-six dogs were randomly recruited in the VL focus of Sbikha-Zaghouan (n = 100) and the ZCL focus of Echrarda-Nasrallah (n = 76). Physical examination and blood collection were systemically performed. Needle aspiration was done in case of lymph node (LN) enlargement. All sera were tested by ELISA. kDNA RT-PCR was performed on DNA extracts from (i) buffy coats of seropositive dogs and (ii) LN aspirates. Leishmania species identification was done by ITS1 PCR-sequencing. Thirty-three dogs (18.8%) were infected by Leishmania; 30 having anti-Leishmania antibodies and 3 were seronegative dogs with Leishmania DNA in LN aspirates. Prevalence of infection was significantly higher in VL foci than in ZCL foci (27% versus 7.9%, p = 0.002). Leishmania species was identified in 11 dogs and corresponded to L. infantum. Combination of serology and qPCR on LN aspirates seems to be the best option for canine leishmaniasis diagnosis. Infection is more frequent in VL foci and L. infantum is the only identified species.

The alteration of the suitability patterns of Leishmania infantum due to climate change in Iran

Leishmaniasis is the most important parasitic infection in Iran. The aim of this study was to model the changing suitability patterns of Leishmania infantum, the causative agent of visceral leishmaniasis for the 21^st century in the country. Temperature, precipitation, and aridity-nature distribution limiting bioclimatic variables were involved in the ecological modelling. The altitudinal trends were considered by using 100 m bars. In Iran, the topographical patterns strongly impact the changing patterns of the suitability of L. infantum due to climate change. In general, climate change will decrease the parasite's suitability in the areas at low altitudes and increase in the middle and higher elevation regions. Increasing values are mainly predicted in the West, the decreasing suitability values in the East part of Iran. The altitudinal shifts and the reduced spatial distribution of L. infantum in the arid regions of East and Central Iran were modelled.

Diversity, Abundance and Leishmania infantum Infection Rate of Phlebotomine Sandflies in an Area with Low Incidence of Visceral Leishmaniasis in Northern Tunisia

We report the study of sandfly Leishmania infection in an area of low incidence of visceral leishmaniasis in Tunisia. Sandflies were collected monthly using CDC light-traps set in houses and animal shelters during May-November 2016 and 2017. All males were identified at the species level. A sample of 878 females including all gravid specimens was subjected to kDNA qPCR for Leishmania detection and parasite load estimation. Leishmania species were determined by ITS1 PCR sequencing, and species identification of infected sandflies was performed by DNA barcoding. Phlebotomus perfiliewi and P. perniciosus were the dominant species during the two-year period. However, comparison of their relative abundances showed that P. perniciosus was more abundant during peaks of 2017 with longer activity duration. Real-time kDNA PCR did not detect Leishmania infection in 2016, although it identified four positive specimens (0.7%) in 2017. All four infected specimens were identified as P. perniciosus. ITS1 PCR sequencing allowed L. infantum identification in one kDNA qPCR-positive specimen. This was a P. perniciosus gravid female with a high parasite load caught during the long-lasting peak of 2017. This work highlights the usefulness of multi-seasonal studies of sandfly dynamics and kDNA qPCR in screening Leishmania infection and determining L. infantum vectors in hypo-endemic foci of human leishmaniasis.

Lower COVID-19 Incidence in Low-Continentality West-Coast Areas of Europe

In March 2020, the first known cases of COVID-19 occurred in Europe. Subsequently, the pandemic developed a seasonal pattern. The incidence of COVID-19 comprises spatial heterogeneity and seasonal variations, with lower and/or shorter peaks resulting in lower total incidence and higher and/or longer peaks resulting higher total incidence. The reason behind this phenomena is still unclear. Unraveling factors that explain why certain places have higher versus lower total COVID-19 incidence can help health decision makers understand and plan for future waves of the pandemic. We test whether differences in the total incidence of COVID-19 within five European countries (Norway, Sweden, Germany, Italy, and Spain), correlate with two environmental factors: the Köppen-Geiger climate zones and the Continentality Index, while statistically controlling for crowding. Our results show that during the first 16 months of the pandemic (March 2020 to July 2021), climate zones with larger annual differences in temperature and annually distributed precipitation show a higher total incidence than climate zones with smaller differences in temperature and dry seasons. This coincides with lower continentality values. Total incidence increases with continentality, up to a Continentality Index value of 19, where a peak is reached in the semicontinental zone. Low continentality (high oceanic influence) appears to be a strong suppressing factor for COVID-19 spread. The incidence in our study area is lowest at open low continentality west coast areas.

Childhood visceral leishmaniasis in Tunisia: A cross-sectional study in local spatial analysis

This paper describes spatial distribution of Visceral Leishmaniasis (VL) and determines its correlation with climatic factors in an endemic focus in northern and central Tunisia. Data on VL cases in children under five years of age were obtained by consulting medical reports from all Tunisian Pediatric Departments (TPD) during 2006-2016. Three key climatic factors, namely precipitation, continentality index and pluviometric coefficient of Emberger were used as predictor variables to model the VL geographical distribution. Data handling and statistical analysis were performed using R and Arcview GIS software systems. Bayesian local spatial model was employed to analyse the data. The results show a progressive increase in the VL incidence rates in regions with high levels of precipitation, but with low values of both continentality index and pluviometric coefficient of Emberger. A likely explanation of these findings arises from the opposite local effects of climatic factors which tend to cancel each other out in the calculation of the mean parameter estimate over the whole study area. We conclude that using non-local spatial analysis approach leads to misleading epidemiological interpretations, which in turn are of relevance for more efficient and cost-effective resource allocation for control and well manage the spread of VL in the study region and elsewhere in Tunisia.

A spatio-temporal agent-based approach for modeling the spread of zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis in northeast Iran

BACKGROUND

Zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis (ZCL) is a neglected tropical disease worldwide, especially the Middle East. Although previous works attempt to model the ZCL spread using various environmental factors, the interactions between vectors (Phlebotomus papatasi), reservoir hosts, humans, and the environment can affect its spread. Considering all of these aspects is not a trivial task.

METHODS

An agent-based model (ABM) is a relatively new approach that provides a framework for analyzing the heterogeneity of the interactions, along with biological and environmental factors in such complex systems. The objective of this research is to design and develop an ABM that uses Geospatial Information System (GIS) capabilities, biological behaviors of vectors and reservoir hosts, and an improved Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) epidemic model to explore the spread of ZCL. Various scenarios were implemented to analyze the future ZCL spreads in different parts of Maraveh Tappeh County, in the northeast region of Golestan Province in northeastern Iran, with alternative socio-ecological conditions.

RESULTS

The results confirmed that the spread of the disease arises principally in the desert, low altitude areas, and riverside population centers. The outcomes also showed that the restricting movement of humans reduces the severity of the transmission. Moreover, the spread of ZCL has a particular temporal pattern, since the most prevalent cases occurred in the fall. The evaluation test also showed the similarity between the results and the reported spatiotemporal trends.

CONCLUSIONS

This study demonstrates the capability and efficiency of ABM to model and predict the spread of ZCL. The results of the presented approach can be considered as a guide for public health management and controlling the vector population .

Nuclear and mitochondrial genome sequencing of North-African Leishmania infantum isolates from cured and relapsed visceral leishmaniasis patients reveals variations correlating with geography and phenotype

Although several studies have investigated genetic diversity of Leishmania infantum in North Africa, genome-wide analyses are lacking. Here, we conducted comparative analyses of nuclear and mitochondrial genomes of seven L. infantum isolates from Tunisia with the aim to gain insight into factors that drive genomic and phenotypic adaptation. Isolates were from cured (n=4) and recurrent (n=3) visceral leishmaniasis (VL) cases, originating from northern (n=2) and central (n=5) Tunisia, where respectively stable and emerging VL foci are observed. All isolates from relapsed patients were from Kairouan governorate (Centre); one showing resistance to the anti-leishmanial drug Meglumine antimoniate. Nuclear genome diversity of the isolates was analysed by comparison to the L. infantum JPCM5 reference genome. Kinetoplast maxi and minicircle sequences (1 and 59, respectively) were extracted from unmapped reads and identified by blast analysis against public data sets. The genome variation analysis grouped together isolates from the same geographical origins. Strains from the North were very different from the reference showing more than 34 587 specific single nucleotide variants, with one isolate representing a full genetic hybrid as judged by variant frequency. Composition of minicircle classes within isolates corroborated this geographical population structure. Read depth analysis revealed several significant gene copy number variations correlating with either geographical origin (amastin and Hsp33 genes) or relapse (CLN3 gene). However, no specific gene copy number variation was found in the drug-resistant isolate. In contrast, resistance was associated with a specific minicircle pattern suggesting Leishmania mitochondrial DNA as a potential novel source for biomarker discovery.

Molecular detection and identification of Leishmania DNA and blood meal analysis in Phlebotomus (Larroussius) species

BACKGROUND

Phlebotomus (Larroussius) perniciosus and Canis familiaris are respectively the only confirmed vector and reservoir for the transmission of Leishmania (L.) infantum MON-1 in Tunisia. However, the vector and reservoir hosts of the two other zymodemes, MON-24 and MON-80, are still unknown. The aim of this study was to analyze the L. infantum life cycle in a Tunisian leishmaniasis focus. For this purpose, we have focused on: i) the detection, quantification and identification of Leishmania among this sand fly population, and ii) the analysis of the blood meal preferences of Larroussius (Lar.) subgenus sand flies to identify the potential reservoirs.

METHODOLOGY AND FINDINGS

A total of 3,831 sand flies were collected in seven locations from the center of Tunisia affected by human visceral leishmaniasis. The collected sand flies belonged to two genus Phlebotomus (Ph.) (five species) and Sergentomyia (four species). From the collected 1,029 Lar. subgenus female sand flies, 8.26% was positive to Leishmania by ITS1 nested PCR. Three Leishmania spp. were identified: L. infantum 28% (24/85), L. killicki 13% (11/85), and L. major 22% (19/85). To identify the blood meal sources in Ph. Lar. subgenus sand flies, engorged females were analyzed by PCR-sequencing targeting the vertebrate cytochrome b gene. Among the 177 analyzed blood-fed females, 169 samples were positive. Sequencing results showed seven blood sources: cattle, human, sheep, chicken, goat, donkey, and turkey. In addition, mixed blood meals were detected in twelve cases. Leishmania DNA was found in 21 engorged females, with a wide range of blood meal sources: cattle, chicken, goat, chicken/cattle, chicken/sheep, chicken/turkey and human/cattle. The parasite load was quantified in fed and unfed infected sand flies using a real time PCR targeting kinetoplast DNA. The average parasite load was 1,174 parasites/reaction and 90 parasites/reaction in unfed and fed flies, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Our results support the role of Ph. longicuspis, Ph. perfiliewi, and Ph. perniciosus in L. infantum transmission. Furthermore, these species could be involved in L. major and L. killicki life cycles. The combination of the parasite detection and the blood meal analysis in this study highlights the incrimination of the identified vertebrate in Leishmania transmission. In addition, we quantify for the first time the parasite load in naturally infected sand flies caught in Tunisia. These findings are relevant for a better understanding of L. infantum transmission cycle in the country. Further investigations and control measures are needed to manage L. infantum transmission and its spreading.

Knowledge and attitudes of Tunisian dog owners regarding leishmaniasis

BACKGROUND

Visceral leishmaniasis is a zoonotic disease of major public health concern in several countries in the world. The local population awareness would improve prevention, early detection and treatment of both human and animal leishmaniasis.

METHODS

The aim of this survey was to assess the knowledge about visceral leishmaniasis in a sample of dog owners visiting the National School of Veterinary Medicine of Sidi Thabet, Tunisia, through a structured questionnaire.

FINDINGS

Two hundred dog owners were interviewed, 87% were men and 47% had higher education level. Ninety four per cent were from neighbouring districts to Ariana, where the National School of Sidi Thabet is located. Out of 200 respondents, 79 confirmed knowing leishmaniasis. The correct answers concerning canine visceral leishmaniasis (CVL) (77%) were significantly higher than those concerning human visceral leishmaniasis (HVL) (23%). Correct answers concerning CVL were given in part by previously diseased dogs' owners. The respondent could not explain what is exactly leishmaniasis, but the majority of questioned persons know that human and dogs are the most important hosts. Forty-four out 79 (56%) of the persons think that mosquitoes or insects are the vectors of leishmaniasis and 63% (53/79) knows that it is a zoonotic disease but 72% (38/53) were not able to define how.

CONCLUSION

Despite the frequent visits to veterinarians for vaccination or other medical issues and their long experience in dog breeding, the sample of dog owners had not enough knowledge and several misconceptions regarding leishmaniasis. Large education programmes should be implemented in Tunisia to improve the knowledge of the Tunisian population, especially dog owners, concerning leishmaniasis.

Temperature effects on the activity of vectors for Leishmania tropica along rocky habitat gradients in the Eastern Mediterranean

Cutaneous leishmaniasis caused by Leishmania tropica, transmitted by Phlebotomus sergenti and Phlebotomus arabicus, has been detected in Israel. This research strives to identify the complexity of temperature effects on vectors of L. tropica and to analyze seasonality and distribution across altitudinal levels. Sand fly trappings were conducted monthly during 2015-2016 in an endemic region for L. tropica in the eastern Galilee. Trappings were conducted in hyrax den sites across a broad topographic and climatic gradient. Using N-mixture models, we investigated the activity levels of sand flies as related to temporary and periodic climatic variables. We tested generality of climate-driven models using Root-Mean-Square Error (RMSE) values by comparing the 2015-2016 data with trapping data from 2013. P. sergenti activity was found to be positively and exponentially correlated with early night temperatures and more strongly correlated with average early-night temperatures for two weeks. P. arabicus exhibited a linear correlation with temperature. Climate-driven models for both species yielded lower RMSE values for the 2013 data, which validate the generality of the models. Considerable differences were found in slope coefficients of temperature effect on sand fly activity among sites related to elevation levels, implying differential local responses of sand flies to temperature.

Use of an Interferon Gamma Release Assay (IGRA) to test T-cell responsiveness to soluble Leishmania infantum antigen in whole blood of dogs from endemic areas

Interferon-Gamma (IFN-γ) Release Assays (IGRAs) are easy tests that allow rapid screening of primed memory T-cells immunity in response to antigen. The aim of this study was to use IGRA to assess IFN-γ release in response to Soluble Leishmania infantum antigen (SLA) in whole blood of dogs living in endemic area of visceral leishmaniasis and to interpret IGRA results according to clinical examination, specific anti-Leishmania humoral response and presence of L. infantum DNA in blood. The study was carried out on 56 dogs living in greater Tunis area. Physical examination, quantitative serology and PCR on blood were used to characterize dogs' status in relation to Leishmania infection and disease. IGRA consisted on testing by ELISA for IFN-γ-secretion in whole blood after a 20-h challenge with SLA. PBS and Phytohemagglutinin (PHA) stimulations were used as controls. Four groups of dogs were characterized: 31 were negative by both serology and PCR, two had doubtful serology, 10 presented no to mild clinical signs but low antibodies levels and 13 were affected by Canine Leishmaniasis (CanL). In seronegative dogs, IGRA was little contributory in 4 puppies (age <6months) and 5 old dogs (median age=72months, IQR: 45-84 months) that didn't respond to PHA stimulation, IGRA was negative in 19 and positive in three animals with lymph node enlargement. In dogs with doubtful serology, IGRA was positive in one dog and negative in the other. In infected dogs with no to mild clinical signs, one dog exhibited high level of IFN-γ in absence of antigenic stimulation and all the other were positive by IGRA. CanL dogs showed variable IGRA results. Negative IGRAs (n=4) were shown in animals with the highest parasitic burden whereas positive IGRAs (n=5) were shown in dogs with negative PCR or low parasitic load. The 4 remaining dogs either didn't respond to PHA (n=2) or showed non-specific secretion in PBS tube (n=2). The results of this study showed that IGRA is a useful new tool that can assess exposure to Leishmania in dogs with no to mild clinical signs in endemic area. Further comparative investigations using assays exploring cellular immunity are needed to determine its accuracy.

Temporal dynamics and Leishmania infantum infection prevalence of Phlebotomus perniciosus (Diptera, Phlebotominae) in highly endemic areas of visceral leishmaniasis in Tunisia

Phlebotomus perniciosus is one of the major vectors of Leishmania infantum in the Mediterranean basin. The aim of this work was (i) to provide information about abundance and temporal dynamics of this Larroussius species in a hot spot area of visceral leishmaniasis in Tunisia, (ii) to detect L. infantum DNA in wild caught female sandflies and (iii) to measure Phlebotomus perniciosus infection rate throughout the active season. Sandflies were collected monthly during one year using CDC miniature light-traps in house and in animal shelters. Male specimens were identified at species level according to morphological characters. Female specimens were conserved individually for molecular study. Leishmania infection was tested by kinetoplast DNA real-time PCR and ITS-1 PCR-sequencing. Subsequent sandfly species identification of infected specimens was done by mitochondrial cytochrome b sequencing. In one year period, overall 4,441 specimens (2230 males and 2211 females) were collected. Sandfly activity started in end-April and ended in early-November. Mean sandfly density in house was significantly lower than in animal shelters (51 ± 50 versus 504 ± 460 sandflies /CDC night, p<0.05). However, a higher proportion of females was found in house (58.4% versus 49.2%, p<0.001). Based on species identification of male specimens, Phlebotomus perniciosus was the dominant species (56% of the whole male sandfly fauna, p<0.0001). It showed two peaks of density in the active season, a sharp one in early May and a higher long lasting one from end-July to end-September. DNA was extracted from 190 female specimens randomly sampled and corresponding to 96 specimens from house and 94 from animal shelters. Twenty four female sandfly were infected by Leishmania infantum. All infected specimens were recognized as Phlebotomus perniciosus. Leishmania infantum infection rate in female sandflies was 2.3 fold higher in house than in animal shelters (17.7% versus 7.4%, p<0.05). In house, estimated number of infected specimens was the highest at the end of the active season. Abundance, dynamics of density and Leishmania infantum infection prevalence of Phlebotomus perniciosus in Tunisian hot spot of visceral leishmaniasis highlight the major role of this Phlebotominae species in L. infantum transmission.

Phlebotomine sand fly-borne pathogens in the Mediterranean Basin: Human leishmaniasis and phlebovirus infections

Pathogens transmitted to humans by phlebotomine sand flies are neglected, as they cause infectious diseases that are not on the priority list of national and international public health systems. However, the infections caused by protozoa of the Leishmania genus and viruses belonging to the Phlebovirus genus (family Phenuiviridae)—the most significant group of viruses transmitted by sand flies—have a relevant role for human pathology. These infections are emerging in the Mediterranean region and will likely spread in forthcoming decades, posing a complex threat to human health. Four species and 2 hybrid strains of Leishmania are pathogenic for humans in the Mediterranean Basin, with an estimated annual incidence of 239,500–393,600 cases of cutaneous leishmaniasis and 1,200–2,000 cases of visceral leishmaniasis. Among the phleboviruses, Toscana virus can cause neuroinvasive infections, while other phleboviruses are responsible for a typical “3-day fever”; the actual incidence of Phlebovirus infections in the Mediterranean area is unknown, although at least 250 million people are exposed. Here, we reviewed the current literature on epidemiology of sand fly–borne infections in the Mediterranean Basin, with a focus on humans. Our analysis indicates the need for increased public health activities directed to determine the disease burden of these infections as well as to improve their surveillance. Among the emerging challenges concerning sand fly–borne pathogens, the relationships between sand fly–borne protozoa and viruses should be considered in future studies, including epidemiological links between Leishmania and phleboviruses as well as the conditional capacity for these pathogens to be involved in interactions that may evolve towards increased virulence.

Modeling zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis incidence in central Tunisia from 2009-2015: Forecasting models using climate variables as predictors

Transmission of zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis (ZCL) depends on the presence, density and distribution of Leishmania major rodent reservoir and the development of these rodents is known to have a significant dependence on environmental and climate factors. ZCL in Tunisia is one of the most common forms of leishmaniasis. The aim of this paper was to build a regression model of ZCL cases to identify the relationship between ZCL occurrence and possible risk factors, and to develop a predicting model for ZCL's control and prevention purposes. Monthly reported ZCL cases, environmental and bioclimatic data were collected over 6 years (2009-2015). Three rural areas in the governorate of Sidi Bouzid were selected as the study area. Cross-correlation analysis was used to identify the relevant lagged effects of possible risk factors, associated with ZCL cases. Non-parametric modeling techniques known as generalized additive model (GAM) and generalized additive mixed models (GAMM) were applied in this work. These techniques have the ability to approximate the relationship between the predictors (inputs) and the response variable (output), and express the relationship mathematically. The goodness-of-fit of the constructed model was determined by Generalized cross-validation (GCV) score and residual test. There were a total of 1019 notified ZCL cases from July 2009 to June 2015. The results showed seasonal distribution of reported ZCL cases from August to January. The model highlighted that rodent density, average temperature, cumulative rainfall and average relative humidity, with different time lags, all play role in sustaining and increasing the ZCL incidence. The GAMM model could be applied to predict the occurrence of ZCL in central Tunisia and could help for the establishment of an early warning system to control and prevent ZCL in central Tunisia.

Spatial modeling of cutaneous leishmaniasis in Iran from 1983 to 2013

INTRODUCTION

Cutaneous Leshmaniasis (CL), a parasitic skin infection caused by Leishmania species, is endemic in some regions of Iran. In this study, the effect of location on the incidence and distribution of CL in Iran was studied.

METHODS

We collected datas including the number of Cutaneous Leishmaniasis cases and populations at-risk of disease in Iran's different provinces reported by the Iranian ministry of health and the National Bureau of Statistics, respectively. Spatial modeling was performed using Arc GIS software. Descriptive maps, hotspot analysis, and high/low clustering analysis were used to demonstrate distribution of the cutaneous leishmaniasis, to determine regions at risk of disease's incidence, and to reach the most appropriate method for clustering of disease.

RESULTS

The total number of cases of cutaneous leishmaniasis reported through the study period was 589,913. The annual incidence of CL was estimated to be 30.9 per 100,000 in Iranian population. We also demonstrated that Cutaneous leishmaniasis most prominently occurs in regions with dry and desert climates as well as in central parts of Iran. It affected the southwest of Iran between 1983 and 1997, and subsequently developed towards the center and the eastern between 1998 and 2013. Disease hotspots were focused in the provinces of Yazd, Khozestan and Kohgiloyeh-Boyer-Ahmad (p<0.05). No pattern of spatial clustering was observed.

CONCLUSION

Cutaneous leishmaniasis is a major health problem which could be a serious threat for inhabitants who live in high-risk provinces of Iran; much more resources need to be allocated in these areas, to warrant the prevention as well as effectively management of this disease.

Reprint of "Spatial modeling of Cutaneous Leishmaniasis in Iran from 1983 to 2013"

INTRODUCTION

Cutaneous Leshmaniasis (CL), a parasitic skin infection caused by Leishmania species, is endemic in some regions of Iran. In this study, the effect of location on the incidence and distribution of CL in Iran was studied.

METHODS

We collected datas including the number of Cutaneous Leishmaniasis cases and populations at-risk of disease in Iran's different provinces reported by the Iranian ministry of health and the National Bureau of Statistics, respectively. Spatial modeling was performed using Arc GIS software. Descriptive maps, hotspot analysis, and high/low clustering analysis were used to demonstrate distribution of the cutaneous leishmaniasis, to determine regions at risk of disease's incidence, and to reach the most appropriate method for clustering of disease.

RESULTS

The total number of cases of cutaneous leishmaniasis reported through the study period was 589,913. The annual incidence of CL was estimated to be 30.9 per 100,000 in Iranian population. We also demonstrated that Cutaneous leishmaniasis most prominently occurs in regions with dry and desert climates as well as in central parts of Iran. It affected the southwest of Iran between 1983 and 1997, and subsequently developed towards the center and the eastern between 1998 and 2013. Disease hotspots were focused in the provinces of Yazd, Khozestan and Kohgiloyeh-Boyer-Ahmad (p<0.05). No pattern of spatial clustering was observed.

CONCLUSION

Cutaneous leishmaniasis is a major health problem which could be a serious threat for inhabitants who live in high-risk provinces of Iran; much more resources need to be allocated in these areas, to warrant the prevention as well as effectively management of this disease.

Cutaneous leishmaniasis prevalence and morbidity based on environmental factors in Ilam, Iran: Spatial analysis and land use regression models

The aim of this study was to investigate the impact of the environmental factors on cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) prevalence and morbidity in Ilam province, western Iran, as a known endemic area for this disease. Accurate locations of 3237 CL patients diagnosed from 2013 to 2015, their demographic information, and data of 17 potentially predictive environmental variables (PPEVs) were prepared to be used in Geographic Information System (GIS) and Land-Use Regression (LUR) analysis. The prevalence, risk, and predictive risk maps were provided using Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW) model in GIS software. Regression analysis was used to determine how environmental variables affect on CL prevalence. All maps and regression models were developed based on the annual and three-year average of the CL prevalence. The results showed that there was statistically significant relationship (P value≤0.05) between CL prevalence and 11 (64%) PPEVs which were elevation, population, rainfall, temperature, urban land use, poorland, dry farming, inceptisol and aridisol soils, and forest and irrigated lands. The highest probability of the CL prevalence was predicted in the west of the study area and frontier with Iraq. An inverse relationship was found between CL prevalence and environmental factors, including elevation, covering soil, rainfall, agricultural irrigation, and elevation while this relation was positive for temperature, urban land use, and population density. Environmental factors were found to be an important predictive variables for CL prevalence and should be considered in management strategies for CL control.

Changes of Sand Fly Populations and Leishmania infantum Infection Rates in an Irrigated Village Located in Arid Central Tunisia

The current spread of zoonotic visceral leishmaniasis (ZVL) throughout arid areas of Central Tunisia is a major public health concern. The main objective of this study is to investigate whether the development of irrigation in arid bio-geographical areas in Central Tunisia have led to the establishment of a stable cycle involving sand flies of the subgenus Larroussius and Leishmania infantum, and subsequently to the emergence of ZVL. Sand flies were collected from the village of Saddaguia, a highly irrigated zone located within an arid bio-geographical area of Central Tunisia by using modified Centers for Diseases Control (CDC) light traps. Morphological keys were used to identify sand flies. Collected sand flies were pooled with up to 30 specimens per pool according to date and tested by nested Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) DNA sequencing from positive pools was used to identify Leishmania spp. A total of 4915 sand flies (2422 females and 2493 males) were collected from Saddaguia in September and in October 2014. Morphological identification confirmed sand flies of the subgenus Larroussius to be predominant. PCR analysis followed by DNA sequencing indicated that 15 pools were infected with L. infantum yielding an overall infection rate of 0.6%. The majority of the infected pools were of sand fly species belonging to subgenus Larroussius. Intense irrigation applied to the arid bio-geographical areas in Central Tunisia is at the origin of the development of an environment capable of sustaining important populations of sand flies of the subgenus Larroussius. This has led to the establishment of stable transmission cycles of L. infantum and subsequently to the emergence of ZVL.

Irrigation in the arid regions of Tunisia impacts the abundance and apparent density of sand fly vectors of Leishmania infantum

The distribution expansion of important human visceral leishmaniasis (HVL) and sporadic cutaneous leishmaniasis (SCL) vector species, Phlebotomus perfiliewi and P. perniciosus, throughout central Tunisia is a major public health concern. This study was designed to investigate if the expansion of irrigation influences the abundance of sand fly species potentially involved in the transmission of HVL and SCL located in arid bioclimatic regions. Geographic and remote sensing approaches were used to predict the density of visceral leishmaniasis vectors in Tunisia. Entomological investigations were performed in the governorate of Sidi Bouzid, located in the arid bioclimatic region of Tunisia. In 2012, sand flies were collected by CDC light traps located at nine irrigated and nine non-irrigated sites to determine species abundance. Eight species in two genera were collected. Among sand flies of the subgenus Larroussius, P. perfiliewi was the only species collected significantly more in irrigated areas. Trap data were then used to develop Poisson regression models to map the apparent density of important sand fly species as a function of different environmental covariates including climate and vegetation density. The density of P. perfiliewi is predicted to be moderately high in the arid regions. These results highlight that the abundance of P. perfiliewi is associated with the development of irrigated areas and suggests that the expansion of this species will continue to more arid areas of the country as irrigation sites continue to be developed in the region. The continued increase in irrigated areas in the Middle East and North Africa region deserves attention, as it is associated with the spread of L. infantum vector P. perfiliewi. Integrated vector management strategies targeting irrigation structures to reduce sand fly vector populations should be evaluated in light of these findings.

Space-time cluster analysis of American visceral leishmaniasis in Bauru, São Paulo State, Brazil

A space-time analysis of American visceral leishmaniasis (AVL) in humans in the city of Bauru, São Paulo State, Brazil was carried out based on 239 cases diagnosed between June 2003 and October 2008. Spatial analysis of the disease showed that cases occurred especially in the city's urban areas. AVL annual incidence rates were calculated, demonstrating that the highest rate occurred in 2006 (19.55/100,000 inhabitants). This finding was confirmed by the time series analysis, which also showed a positive tendency over the period analyzed. The present study allows us to conclude that the disease was clustered in the Southwest side of the city in 2006, suggesting that this area may require special attention with regard to control and prevention measures.

Phlebotomine sandflies and the spreading of leishmaniases and other diseases of public health concern

Phlebotomine sandflies transmit pathogens that affect humans and animals worldwide. We review the roles of phlebotomines in the spreading of leishmaniases, sandfly fever, summer meningitis, vesicular stomatitis, Chandipura virus encephalitis and Carrión's disease. Among over 800 species of sandfly recorded, 98 are proven or suspected vectors of human leishmaniases; these include 42 Phlebotomus species in the Old World and 56 Lutzomyia species in the New World (all: Diptera: Psychodidae). Based on incrimination criteria, we provide an updated list of proven or suspected vector species by endemic country where data are available. Increases in sandfly diffusion and density resulting from increases in breeding sites and blood sources, and the interruption of vector control activities contribute to the spreading of leishmaniasis in the settings of human migration, deforestation, urbanization and conflict. In addition, climatic changes can be expected to affect the density and dispersion of sandflies. Phlebovirus infections and diseases are present in large areas of the Old World, especially in the Mediterranean subregion, in which virus diversity has proven to be higher than initially suspected. Vesiculovirus diseases are important to livestock and humans in the southeastern U.S.A. and Latin America, and represent emerging human threats in parts of India. Carrión's disease, formerly restricted to regions of elevated altitude in Peru, Ecuador and Colombia, has shown recent expansion to non-endemic areas of the Amazon basin.

First molecular epidemiological study of cutaneous leishmaniasis in Libya

Background

Cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) is a major public health problem in Libya. The objective of this study was to investigate, for the first time, epidemiological features of CL outbreaks in Libya including molecular identification of parasites, the geographical distribution of cases and possible scenarios of parasite transmission.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We studied 450 patients that came from 49 areas distributed in 12 districts in north-west Libya. The patients' ages ranged from 9 months to 87 years (median age 25 years); 54% of the cases were males. Skin scrapings spotted on glass slides were collected for molecular identification of causative agent. The ribosomal internal transcribed spacer 1 (ITS1) was amplified and subsequently characterized by restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP) analysis. In total, 195 samples were successfully identified of which 148 (75.9%) were Leishmania major, and 47 (24.1%) Leishmania tropica. CL cases infected with L. major were found in all CL areas whereas L. tropica cases came mainly from Al Jabal Al Gharbi (46.4%), Misrata (17.8%) and Tarhuna districts (10.7%). A trend of seasonality was noticed for the infections with L. major which showed a clear peak between November and January, but was less pronounced for infections by L. tropica.

Conclusion

The first molecular study on CL in Libya revealed that the disease is caused by L. major and L. tropica and the epidemiological patterns in the different foci were the same as in other Mediterranean foci of CL.

Cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) is caused by protozoan parasites of the genus Leishmania. The disease is characterized by the formation of chronic skin lesions followed by permanent scars and deformation of the infected area. It is distributed in many tropical and subtropical countries with more than 2 million cases every year. During the past few years CL has emerged as a major public health problem in Libya. So far, diagnosis was based on clinical symptoms and microscopic observation of parasites. Disease outbreaks were not investigated and the causative leishmanial species of CL were not identified so far. Our study indicates the presence of two coexisting species: Leishmania major and Leishmania tropica. These results are crucial in order to provide accurate treatment, precise prognosis and appropriate public health control measures. The recent armed conflict in Libya that ended with the Gadhafi regime collapse on October 2011 has affected all aspects of the life in the country. In this study we discussed multiple risk factors that could be associated with this conflict and present major challenges that should be considered by local and national health authorities for evaluating the CL burden and highlighting priority actions for disease control.

Temporal dynamics and impact of climate factors on the incidence of zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis in central Tunisia

BACKGROUND

Old world Zoonotic Cutaneous Leishmaniasis (ZCL) is a vector-borne human disease caused by Leishmania major, a unicellular eukaryotic parasite transmitted by pool blood-feeding sand flies mainly to wild rodents, such as Psammomys obesus. The human beings who share the rodent and sand fly habitats can be subverted as both sand fly blood resource. ZCL is endemic in the Middle East, Central Asia, Subsaharan and North Africa. Like other vector-borne diseases, the incidence of ZCL displayed by humans varies with environmental and climate factors. However, so far no study has addressed the temporal dynamics or the impact of climate factors on the ZCL risk.

PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Seasonality during the same epidemiologic year and interval between ZCL epidemics ranging from 4 to 7 years were demonstrated. Models showed that ZCL incidence is raising i) by 1.8% (95% confidence intervals CI:0.0-3.6%) when there is 1 mm increase in the rainfall lagged by 12 to 14 months ii) by 5.0% (95% CI: 0.8-9.4%) when there is a 1% increase in humidity from July to September in the same epidemiologic year.

CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE

Higher rainfall is expected to result in increased density of chenopods, a halophytic plant that constitutes the exclusive food of Psammomys obesus. Consequently, following a high density of Psammomys obesus, the pool of Leishmania major transmissible from the rodents to blood-feeding female sand flies could lead to a higher probability of transmission to humans over the next season. These findings provide the evidence that ZCL is highly influenced by climate factors that could affect both Psammomys obesus and the sand fly population densities.

Asymptomatic carriage of Leishmania in family members of patients with visceral leishmaniasis in Central Tunisia

INTRODUCTION

In Tunisia, asymptomatic carriage of Leishmania is poorly documented.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of the present study was to estimate the frequency of asymptomatic infection among the family members of patients with patent visceral leishmaniasis by using the Western blotting kit based on 14 and 16kDa bands.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

We tested 94 sera collected from 24 patients with patent visceral leishmaniasis and 70 from their families' members.

RESULTS

The rate of seropositivity was 100% in the group of patients and 54.3% in the group of families' members. The analysis of the Western blotting patterns showed that the 33kDa, 24kDa and to a lesser extent the 22kDa band were very indicative of patent visceral leishmaniasis in contrast to asymptomatic infection where these bands were very rarely detected.

CONCLUSION

The results reported herein showed the high frequency of asymptomatic carriers of Leishmania among the families' members of visceral leishmaniasis cases and the usefulness of the Western blotting as a screening technique and in distinguishing between patent visceral leishmaniasis and the asymptomatic carriage of Leishmania.

Diagnosis of mediterranean visceral leishmaniasis by detection of leishmania antibodies and leishmania DNA in oral fluid samples collected using an Oracol device

Current methods for diagnosis of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) require invasive sampling procedures such as visceral aspiration and/or blood drawing. The use of diagnostic tests using oral fluid, which is easier to collect, would be more simple and practical for VL diagnosis, especially under field conditions. Oral fluids from 37 VL patients and 40 healthy controls were collected using Oracol devices. Blood samples and oral fluid specimens from both groups were analyzed by recombinant protein K39 (rK39) enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay and quantitative real-time PCR. Detection of antibodies in the oral fluid had a sensitivity of 100% and a specificity of 97.5%. Antibody levels measured in serum and oral fluid showed a significant positive correlation (ρ = 0.655 and P = 0.01). Detection of Leishmania DNA in oral fluid had a sensitivity of 94.6% and a specificity of 90%. The median parasite load estimated in blood was 133 parasites/ml (interquartile range [IR], 10 to 1,048), whereas that in oral fluid specimens was 3 parasites/ml (IR, 0.41 to 92). However, there was no significant linear relationship between parasite loads assessed in the two biological samples (ρ = 0.31 and P = 0.06). VL diagnosis based on specific antibody detection and Leishmania DNA identification using oral fluid samples was equivalent in accuracy to that using blood and therefore is promising for clinical use.

Climate change and health research in the Eastern Mediterranean Region

Anthropologically induced climate change, caused by an increased concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, is an emerging threat to human health. Consequences of climate change may affect the prevalence of various diseases and environmental and social maladies that affect population health. In this article, we reviewed the literature on climate change and health in the Eastern Mediterranean Region. This region already faces numerous humanitarian crises, from conflicts to natural hazards and a high burden of disease. Climate change is likely to aggravate these emergencies, necessitating a strengthening of health systems and capacities in the region. However, the existing literature on climate change from the region is sparse and informational gaps stand in the way of regional preparedness and adaptation. Further research is needed to assess climatic changes and related health impacts in the Eastern Mediterranean Region. Such knowledge will allow countries to identify preparedness vulnerabilities, evaluate capacity to adapt to climate change, and develop adaptation strategies to allay the health impacts of climate change.