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Aljumah AA, Abaalkhail F, Al-Ashgar H, Assiri A, Babatin M, Al Faleh F, Alghamdi A, Al-Hakeem R, Hashim A, Alqutub A, Razavi H, Sanai FM, Al-Swat K, Schmelzer J, Altraif I. Epidemiology, disease burden, and treatment strategies of chronic hepatitis C virus infections in Saudi Arabia in the new treatment paradigm shift. Saudi J Gastroenterol 2016; 22:269-81. [PMID: 27488321 PMCID: PMC4991197 DOI: 10.4103/1319-3767.187609] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/26/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND/AIMS Around 101,000 individuals are estimated to be viremic for chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) in 2014; however, only about 20% have been diagnosed. We aim to assess baseline epidemiology, disease burden, and evaluate strategies to eliminate HCV in KSA. MATERIALS AND METHODS The infected population and disease progression were modeled using age- and gender-defined cohorts to track HCV incidence, prevalence, hepatic complications, and mortality. Baseline assumptions and transition probabilities were extracted from the literature. The impacts of two scenarios on HCV-related disease burden were considered through increases in treatment efficacy alone or treatment and diagnosis. RESULTS In 2030, it is estimated by the base scenario that viremic prevalence will increase to 103,000 cases, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) to 470, decompensated and compensated cirrhosis cases to 1,300 and 15,400, respectively, and liver-related mortality to 670 deaths. Using high efficacy treatment alone resulted in 2030 projection of 80,700 viremic cases, 350 HCC cases, 480 liver-related deaths, and 850 and 11,500 decompensated and compensated cirrhosis cases, respectively. With an aggressive treatment strategy, in 2030 there will be about 1,700 viremic cases, 1 HCC case, about 20 liver-related deaths, and 5 and 130 cases of decompensated and compensated cirrhosis, respectively. Delaying this strategy by one year would result in 360 additional deaths by 2030. CONCLUSIONS HCV in KSA remains constant, and cases of advanced liver disease and mortality continue to rise. Considered increases in treatment efficacy and number treated would have a significantly greater impact than increased treatment efficacy alone. The projected impact will facilitate disease forecasting, resource planning, and strategies for HCV management. Increased screening and diagnosis would likely be required as part of a national strategy.
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Affiliation(s)
- Abdulrahman A. Aljumah
- Department of Hepatobiliary Sciences and Liver Transplantation, King Abdulaziz Medical City, Riyadh, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia,King Saud bin Abdulaziz University for Health Sciences, National Guard Health Affairs, Riyadh, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia,Address for correspondence: Dr. Abdulrahman A. Aljumah, Department of Hepatobiliary Sciences and Liver Transplantation, King Abdulaziz Medical City, and King Saud bin Abdulaziz University for Health Sciences, Ministry of National Guard Health Affairs, Riyadh, Kingdome of Saudi Arabia. E-mail:
| | - Faisal Abaalkhail
- Department of Liver and Small Bowel Transplantation, Riyadh, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia,Alfaisal University, Riyadh, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
| | - Hamad Al-Ashgar
- Department of Medicine, King Faisal Specialist Hospital and Research Center, Riyadh, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia,Alfaisal University, Riyadh, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
| | - Abdullah Assiri
- Department of Preventive Medicine Directorate, Ministry of Health, Riyadh, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
| | - Mohamed Babatin
- Department of Medicine, Gastroenterology Unit, King Fahad Hospital, Jeddah, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
| | - Faleh Al Faleh
- Department of Medicine, King Saud University, Riyadh, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia,Liver Disease Research Center, College of Medicine, King Saud University, Riyadh, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
| | - Abdullah Alghamdi
- Department of Medicine, Gastroenterology Unit, King Fahad Hospital, Jeddah, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
| | - Raafat Al-Hakeem
- Department of Preventive Medicine Directorate, Ministry of Health, Riyadh, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
| | - Almoataz Hashim
- Department of Internal Medicine, Jeddah University, Jeddah, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
| | - Adel Alqutub
- Department of Medical Specialties, Gastroenterology and Hepatology Section, King Fahad Medical City, Riyadh, Kingdome of Saudi Arabia
| | - Homie Razavi
- Center for Disease Analysis, Louisville, Colorado, USA
| | - Faisal M. Sanai
- Liver Disease Research Center, College of Medicine, King Saud University, Riyadh, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia,Department of Medicine, Gastroenterology Division, King Abdulaziz Medical City, Jeddah, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
| | - Khalid Al-Swat
- Department of Medicine, King Saud University, Riyadh, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia,Liver Disease Research Center, College of Medicine, King Saud University, Riyadh, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
| | | | - Ibrahim Altraif
- Department of Hepatobiliary Sciences and Liver Transplantation, King Abdulaziz Medical City, Riyadh, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia,King Saud bin Abdulaziz University for Health Sciences, National Guard Health Affairs, Riyadh, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
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5
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Liakina V, Hamid S, Tanaka J, Olafsson S, Sharara AI, Alavian SM, Gheorghe L, El Hassan ES, Abaalkhail F, Abbas Z, Abdou A, Abourached A, Al Braiki F, Al Hosani F, Al Jaberi K, Al Khatry M, Al Mulla MA, Al Quraishi H, Al Rifai A, Al Serkal Y, Alam A, Alashgar HI, Alawadhi S, Al-Dabal L, Aldins P, Alfaleh FZ, Alghamdi AS, Al-Hakeem R, Aljumah AA, Almessabi A, Alqutub AN, Alswat KA, Altraif I, Alzaabi M, Andrea N, Assiri AM, Babatin MA, Baqir A, Barakat MT, Bergmann OM, Bizri AR, Blach S, Chaudhry A, Choi MS, Diab T, Djauzi S, El Khoury S, Estes C, Fakhry S, Farooqi JI, Fridjonsdottir H, Gani RA, Ghafoor Khan A, Goldis A, Gottfredsson M, Gregorcic S, Hajarizadeh B, Han KH, Hasan I, Hashim A, Horvath G, Hunyady B, Husni R, Jafri W, Jeruma A, Jonasson JG, Karlsdottir B, Kim DY, Kim YS, Koutoubi Z, Lesmana LA, Lim YS, Löve A, Maimets M, Makara M, Malekzadeh R, Matičič M, Memon MS, Merat S, Mokhbat JE, Mourad FH, Muljono DH, Nawaz A, Nugrahini N, Priohutomo S, Qureshi H, Rassam P, Razavi H, Razavi-Shearer D, Razavi-Shearer K, Rozentale B, Sadik M, Saeed K, Salamat A, Salupere R, Sanai FM, Sanityoso Sulaiman A, Sayegh RA, Schmelzer JD, Sibley A, Siddiq M, Siddiqui AM, Sigmundsdottir G, Sigurdardottir B, Speiciene D, Sulaiman A, Sultan MA, Taha M, Tarifi H, Tayyab G, Tolmane I, Ud Din M, Umar M, Valantinas J, Videčnik-Zorman J, Yaghi C, Yunihastuti E, Yusuf MA, Zuberi BF, Gunter J. Historical epidemiology of hepatitis C virus (HCV) in select countries - volume 3. J Viral Hepat 2015; 22 Suppl 4:4-20. [PMID: 26513445 DOI: 10.1111/jvh.12475] [Citation(s) in RCA: 63] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/02/2015] [Accepted: 09/06/2015] [Indexed: 02/05/2023]
Abstract
Detailed, country-specific epidemiological data are needed to characterize the burden of chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection around the world. With new treatment options available, policy makers and public health officials must reconsider national strategies for infection control. In this study of 15 countries, published and unpublished data on HCV prevalence, viraemia, genotype, age and gender distribution, liver transplants and diagnosis and treatment rates were gathered from the literature and validated by expert consensus in each country. Viraemic prevalence in this study ranged from 0.2% in Iran and Lebanon to 4.2% in Pakistan. The largest viraemic populations were in Pakistan (7 001 000 cases) and Indonesia (3 187 000 cases). Injection drug use (IDU) and a historically unsafe blood supply were major risk factors in most countries. Diagnosis, treatment and liver transplant rates varied widely between countries. However, comparison across countries was difficult as the number of cases changes over time. Access to reliable data on measures such as these is critical for the development of future strategies to manage the disease burden.
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Affiliation(s)
- V Liakina
- Centre of Hepatology, Gastroenterology, and Dietetics, Faculty of Medicine, Vilnius University, Vilnius, Lithuania.,Department of Biomechanics, Vilnius Gediminas Technical University, Vilnius, Lithuania
| | - S Hamid
- The Aga Khan University, Karachi, Pakistan
| | - J Tanaka
- Department of Epidemiology, Infectious Disease Control and Prevention, Hiroshima University Institute of Biomedical and Health Sciences, Hiroshima, Japan
| | - S Olafsson
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Landspitali - The National University Hospital of Iceland, Reykjavik, Iceland
| | - A I Sharara
- Division of Gastroenterology, American University of Beirut Medical Center, Beirut, Lebanon
| | - S M Alavian
- Baqiatallah Research Center for Gastroenterology and Liver Diseases, Baqiatallah University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.,Middle East Liver Diseases Centre, Tehran, Iran
| | - L Gheorghe
- Center of Gastroenterology & Hepatology, Fundeni Clinical Institute, Bucharest, Romania
| | | | - F Abaalkhail
- Department of Liver and Small Bowel Transplantation, King Faisal Specialist Hospital and Research Center, Alfaisal University, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
| | - Z Abbas
- Ziauddin University, Karachi, Pakistan
| | - A Abdou
- Rashid Hospital, Dubai Health Authority, Dubai, UAE
| | - A Abourached
- National Hepatitis Program, Ministry of Public Health, Beirut, Lebanon
| | - F Al Braiki
- Abu Dhabi Health Services Company, Abu Dhabi, UAE
| | - F Al Hosani
- Communicable Diseases Department, Health Authority Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, UAE
| | - K Al Jaberi
- Health Regulation Division, Health Authority Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, UAE
| | - M Al Khatry
- Ras Al Khaimah Hospital, Ras Al Khaimah, UAE
| | - M A Al Mulla
- Communicable Diseases Department, Health Authority Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, UAE
| | | | | | - Y Al Serkal
- Hospitals Sector, Ministry of Health, Al-Ain, UAE
| | - A Alam
- Shaikh Zayed Hospital, Lahore, Pakistan
| | - H I Alashgar
- Department of Medicine, King Faisal Specialist Hospital and Research Centre, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
| | - S Alawadhi
- Rashid Hospital, Dubai Health Authority, Dubai, UAE
| | - L Al-Dabal
- Department of Pulmonary Medicine, Rashid Hospital, Dubai Health Authority, Dubai, UAE
| | - P Aldins
- Infection Control Department, Pauls Stradins Clinical University Hospital, Riga, Latvia
| | - F Z Alfaleh
- Liver Disease Research Center, King Saud University, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
| | - A S Alghamdi
- Gastroenterology and Hepatology Unit, Medical Specialties Department, King Fahad Hospital, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
| | - R Al-Hakeem
- Department of Preventive Medicine, Ministry of Health, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
| | - A A Aljumah
- King Abdulaziz Medical City and King Saud bin Abdulaziz University for Health Sciences, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
| | - A Almessabi
- Abu Dhabi Health Services Company, Abu Dhabi, UAE
| | - A N Alqutub
- Gastroenterology and Hepatology Unit, Medical Specialties Department, King Fahad Hospital, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
| | - K A Alswat
- Department of Medicine, King Saud University Liver Disease Research Center, College of Medicine, King Saud University, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
| | - I Altraif
- King Abdulaziz Medical City and King Saud bin Abdulaziz University for Health Sciences, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
| | - M Alzaabi
- Zayed Military Hospital, Abu Dhabi, UAE
| | - N Andrea
- Daman National Health Insurance Company, Abu Dhabi, UAE
| | - A M Assiri
- Department of Preventive Medicine, Ministry of Health, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
| | - M A Babatin
- Gastroenterology and Hepatology Unit, Medical Specialties Department, King Fahad Hospital, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
| | - A Baqir
- Seyal Medical Centre, Multan, Pakistan
| | | | - O M Bergmann
- Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Landspitali - The National University Hospital of Iceland, Reykjavik, Iceland
| | - A R Bizri
- Faculty of Medicine, Division of Infectious Diseases, American University of Beirut Medical Center, Beirut, Lebanon
| | - S Blach
- Center for Disease Analysis (CDA), Louisville, CO, USA
| | - A Chaudhry
- Gujranwala Liver Foundation, Siddiq Sadiq Hospital, Gujranwala, Pakistan
| | - M S Choi
- Department of Medicine, Samsung Medical Center, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Seoul, Korea
| | - T Diab
- Al Ain Hospital, Al Ain, UAE
| | - S Djauzi
- Division of Hepatobiliary, Department of Internal Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, University of Indonesia, Dr. Cipto Mangunkusumo Hospital, Jakarta, Indonesia
| | - S El Khoury
- Gastroenterology Department, Saint George Hospital, University of Balamand, Balamand, Lebanon
| | - C Estes
- Center for Disease Analysis (CDA), Louisville, CO, USA
| | - S Fakhry
- Abu Dhabi Police, Abu Dhabi, UAE
| | - J I Farooqi
- Postgraduate Medical Institute, Khyber Medical University, Peshawar, Pakistan.,Government Lady Reading Hospital, Peshawar, Pakistan
| | - H Fridjonsdottir
- Landspitali - The National University Hospital of Iceland, Reykjavik, Iceland
| | - R A Gani
- Division of Hepatobiliary, Department of Internal Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, University of Indonesia, Dr. Cipto Mangunkusumo Hospital, Jakarta, Indonesia
| | - A Ghafoor Khan
- Department of Gastroenterology & Hepatology, Lady Reading Hospital, Peshawar, Pakistan
| | - A Goldis
- Clinic of Gastroenterology, University of Medicine 'Victor Babes', Timisoara, Romania
| | - M Gottfredsson
- Faculty of Medicine, School of Health Sciences, Landspitali - The National University Hospital of Iceland, Reykjavik, Iceland
| | - S Gregorcic
- Clinic for Infectious Diseases and Febrile Illnesses, University Medical Centre, Ljubljana, Slovenia
| | - B Hajarizadeh
- The Kirby Institute, University of New South Wales Australia, Sydney, NSW, Australia.,The Australian Research Centre in Sex, Health and Society, La Trobe University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
| | - K H Han
- Department of Internal Medicine, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea
| | - I Hasan
- Division of Hepatobiliary, Department of Internal Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, University of Indonesia, Dr. Cipto Mangunkusumo Hospital, Jakarta, Indonesia
| | - A Hashim
- Liver Transplantation, King Faisal Specialist Hospital and Research Centre, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
| | - G Horvath
- Hepatology Center of Buda, Budapest, Hungary
| | - B Hunyady
- Department of Gastroenterology, Somogy County Kaposi Mor Teaching Hospital, Kaposvar, Hungary.,First Department of Medicine, University of Pecs, Pecs, Hungary
| | - R Husni
- Lebanese American University Medical Center, Rizk Hospital, Beirut, Lebanon
| | - W Jafri
- Aga Khan University, Karachi, Pakistan
| | - A Jeruma
- Department of Hepatology, Infectology Center of Latvia, Riga, Latvia.,Department of Infectology and Dermatology, Riga Stradins University, Riga, Latvia
| | - J G Jonasson
- Landspitali - The National University Hospital of Iceland, Reykjavik, Iceland.,Icelandic Cancer Registry, Reykjavik, Iceland.,The Faculty of Medicine, Landspitali - The National University Hospital of Iceland, Reykjavik, Iceland
| | - B Karlsdottir
- Division of Infectious Disease, Landspitali - The National University Hospital of Iceland, Reykjavik, Iceland
| | - D Y Kim
- Department of Internal Medicine, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea
| | - Y S Kim
- Department of Internal Medicine, Soon Chun Hyang University Bucheon Hospital, Bucheon, Korea
| | - Z Koutoubi
- Digestive Disease Institute, Cleveland Clinic Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, UAE
| | - L A Lesmana
- Division of Hepatobiliary, Department of Internal Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, University of Indonesia, Dr. Cipto Mangunkusumo Hospital, Jakarta, Indonesia.,Digestive Disease and GI Oncology Center, Medistra Hospital, Jakarta, Indonesia
| | - Y S Lim
- Department of Gastroenterology, Asan Medical Center, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea
| | - A Löve
- Faculty of Medicine, School of Health Sciences, Landspitali - The National University Hospital of Iceland, Reykjavik, Iceland.,Department of Virology, Landspitali - The National University Hospital of Iceland, Reykjavik, Iceland
| | - M Maimets
- University of Tartu, Tartu University Hospital, Tartu, Estonia
| | - M Makara
- Central Outpatient Clinic, Saint Laszlo Hospital, Budapest, Hungary
| | - R Malekzadeh
- Liver and Pancreatobiliary Diseases Research Center, Digestive Diseases Research Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - M Matičič
- Clinic for Infectious Diseases and Febrile Illnesses, University Medical Centre, Ljubljana, Slovenia
| | - M S Memon
- Asian Institute of Medical Science (AIMS), Hyderabad, Pakistan
| | - S Merat
- Liver and Pancreatobiliary Diseases Research Center, Digestive Diseases Research Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - J E Mokhbat
- Division of Infectious Diseases and Division of Clinical Microbiology, Lebanese American University Medical Center Rizk Hospital, Beirut, Lebanon
| | - F H Mourad
- Division of Gastroenterology, American University of Beirut Medical Center, Beirut, Lebanon
| | - D H Muljono
- Eijkman Institute for Molecular Biology, Jakarta, Indonesia.,Department of Hepatitis & Emerging Infectious Diseases, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | - A Nawaz
- Department of Gastroenterology, Fatima Memorial Hospital College of Medicine and Dentistry, Lahore, Pakistan
| | - N Nugrahini
- Sub-Directorate for Gastrointestinal Infection, Diarrheal Diseases, and Hepatitis, Directorate of Direct Transmitted Disease Control, Disease Control & Environmental Health, Ministry of Health, Jakarta, Indonesia
| | - S Priohutomo
- Directorate of Direct Transmitted Disease Control, Disease Control & Environmental Health, Ministry of Health, Jakarta, Indonesia
| | - H Qureshi
- Pakistan Medical Research Council, Islamabad, Pakistan
| | - P Rassam
- Gastroenterology Department, Saint George Hospital, University of Balamand, Balamand, Lebanon
| | - H Razavi
- Center for Disease Analysis (CDA), Louisville, CO, USA
| | | | | | - B Rozentale
- Department of Hepatology, Infectology Center of Latvia, Riga, Latvia.,Department of Infectology and Dermatology, Riga Stradins University, Riga, Latvia
| | - M Sadik
- Asian Institute of Medical Science (AIMS), Hyderabad, Pakistan
| | - K Saeed
- Khawar Clinic, Sahiwal, Pakistan
| | - A Salamat
- Department of Gastroenterology, Military Hospital, Rawalpindi, Pakistan
| | - R Salupere
- University of Tartu, Tartu University Hospital, Tartu, Estonia
| | - F M Sanai
- Liver Disease Research Center, King Saud University, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
| | - A Sanityoso Sulaiman
- Division of Hepatobiliary, Department of Internal Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, University of Indonesia, Dr. Cipto Mangunkusumo Hospital, Jakarta, Indonesia
| | - R A Sayegh
- Department of Hepatology and Gastroenterology, School of Medical Science, Saint Joseph University, Beirut, Lebanon
| | - J D Schmelzer
- Center for Disease Analysis (CDA), Louisville, CO, USA
| | - A Sibley
- Center for Disease Analysis (CDA), Louisville, CO, USA
| | - M Siddiq
- Jinnah Memorial Hospital, Rawalpindi, Pakistan.,Yusra Medical College, Rawalpindi, Pakistan
| | | | - G Sigmundsdottir
- Centre for Health Security and Communicable Disease Control, Directorate of Health in Iceland, Reykjavik, Iceland
| | - B Sigurdardottir
- Division of Infectious Disease, Landspitali - The National University Hospital of Iceland, Reykjavik, Iceland
| | - D Speiciene
- Centre of Hepatology, Gastroenterology, and Dietetics, Faculty of Medicine, Vilnius University, Vilnius, Lithuania
| | - A Sulaiman
- Division of Hepatobiliary, Department of Internal Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, University of Indonesia, Dr. Cipto Mangunkusumo Hospital, Jakarta, Indonesia.,Klinik Hati Prof. Ali Sulaiman, Jakarta, Indonesia
| | - M A Sultan
- Health Funding Department, Enaya Insurance Company, Abu Dhabi, UAE
| | - M Taha
- Department of Medicine, Tawam Hospital, Al Ain, UAE
| | - H Tarifi
- Pharmacy Department, Tawam Hospital, Al Ain, UAE
| | - G Tayyab
- Postgraduate Medical Institute, Lahore General Hospital, Lahore, Pakistan.,Doctors Hospital and Medical Center, Lahore, Pakistan
| | - I Tolmane
- Department of Hepatology, Infectology Center of Latvia, Riga, Latvia.,Department of Infectology and Dermatology, Riga Stradins University, Riga, Latvia
| | - M Ud Din
- Pakistan Society of Gastroenterology, Karachi, Pakistan
| | - M Umar
- Department of Medicine, Rawalpindi Medical College, Rawalpindi, Pakistan.,Department of Medicine, Holy Family Hospital, Rawalpindi, Pakistan
| | - J Valantinas
- Centre of Hepatology, Gastroenterology, and Dietetics, Faculty of Medicine, Vilnius University, Vilnius, Lithuania
| | - J Videčnik-Zorman
- Clinic for Infectious Diseases and Febrile Illnesses, University Medical Centre, Ljubljana, Slovenia
| | - C Yaghi
- Department of Hepatology and Gastroenterology, School of Medical Science, Saint Joseph University, Beirut, Lebanon
| | - E Yunihastuti
- Department of Internal Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Universitas Indonesia, Jakarta, Indonesia
| | - M A Yusuf
- Shaukat Khanum Memorial Cancer Hospital & Research Centre, Lahore, Pakistan
| | | | - J Gunter
- Center for Disease Analysis (CDA), Louisville, CO, USA
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