Assessment of upper tropospheric and stratospheric water vapor and ozone in reanalyses as part of S-RIP

Impacts of the antartic ozone hole influence events over southern Brazil in October 2015

The impact of the Antarctic Ozone Hole Influence over Southern Brazil in October 2015 was analyzed using daily mean data of the Total Column Ozone (TCO), Ultraviolet Index (UVI) and Radiative Cloud Fraction (RCF) from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument satellite instrument. Vertical profiles and fields of ozone content and Potential Vorticity available from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast reanalysis, air masses backward trajectories from the HYbrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory model and channel 3 water vapor images from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite GOES-13 were also analyzed. The five identified events showed an -7.4±2.3% average TCO reduction, leading to an +16.6±54.6% UVI increase even with a predominance of partly cloudy days. Other impacts were observed in the ozone profiles, where the most significant anomalies occurred from 650 K reaching 1.2 ppmv at the 850 K level. In the ozone fields at 700 K, the presence of a polar origin tongue was observed causing negatives anomalies between -0.2 and 0.4 ppmv in a transient system format forced with eastward-traveling Rossby waves passing through the Southern of Brazil and Uruguay.

Long term temporal trends in synoptic-scale weather conditions favoring significant tornado occurrence over the central United States

We perform a statistical climatological study of the synoptic- to meso-scale weather conditions favoring significant tornado occurrence to empirically investigate the existence of long term temporal trends. To identify environments that favor tornadoes, we apply an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis to temperature, relative humidity, and winds from the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications Version 2 (MERRA-2) dataset. We consider MERRA-2 data and tornado data from 1980 to 2017 over four adjacent study regions that span the Central, Midwestern, and Southeastern United States. To identify which EOFs are related to significant tornado occurrence, we fit two separate groups of logistic regression models. The first group (LEOF models) estimates the probability of occurrence of a significant tornado day (EF2-EF5) within each region. The second group (IEOF models) classifies the intensity of tornadic days either as strong (EF3-EF5) or weak (EF1-EF2). When compared to approaches using proxies such as convective available potential energy, our EOF approach is advantageous for two main reasons: first, the EOF approach allows for the discovery of important synoptic- to mesoscale variables previously not considered in the tornado science literature; second, proxy-based analyses may not capture important aspects of three-dimensional atmospheric conditions represented by the EOFs. Indeed, one of our main novel findings is the importance of a stratospheric forcing mode on occurrence of significant tornadoes. Other important novel findings are the existence of long-term temporal trends in the stratospheric forcing mode, in a dry line mode, and in an ageostrophic circulation mode related to the jet stream configuration. A relative risk analysis also indicates that changes in stratospheric forcings are partially or completely offsetting increased tornado risk associated with the dry line mode, except in the eastern Midwest region where tornado risk is increasing.

NASA GEOS Composition Forecast Modeling System GEOS-CF v1.0: Stratospheric Composition

The NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Composition Forecast (GEOS-CF) provides recent estimates and 5-day forecasts of atmospheric composition to the public in near-real time. To do this, the GEOS Earth system model is coupled with the GEOS-Chem tropospheric-stratospheric unified chemistry extension (UCX) to represent composition from the surface to the top of the GEOS atmosphere (0.01 hPa). The GEOS-CF system is described, including updates made to the GEOS-Chem UCX mechanism within GEOS-CF for improved representation of stratospheric chemistry. Comparisons are made against balloon, lidar, and satellite observations for stratospheric composition, including measurements of ozone (O3) and important nitrogen and chlorine species related to stratospheric O3 recovery. The GEOS-CF nudges the stratospheric O3 toward the GEOS Forward Processing (GEOS FP) assimilated O3 product; as a result the stratospheric O3 in the GEOS-CF historical estimate agrees well with observations. During abnormal dynamical and chemical environments such as the 2020 polar vortexes, the GEOS-CF O3 forecasts are more realistic than GEOS FP O3 forecasts because of the inclusion of the complex GEOS-Chem UCX stratospheric chemistry. Overall, the spatial patterns of the GEOS-CF simulated concentrations of stratospheric composition agree well with satellite observations. However, there are notable biases-such as low NO x and HNO3 in the polar regions and generally low HCl throughout the stratosphere-and future improvements to the chemistry mechanism and emissions are discussed. GEOS-CF is a new tool for the research community and instrument teams observing trace gases in the stratosphere and troposphere, providing near-real-time three-dimensional gridded information on atmospheric composition.

Climatological Study of Ozone over Saudi Arabia

In this work, analysis of the variability of total column ozone (TCO) over the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) has been conducted during the 1979–2020 period based on the ECMWF-ERA5 dataset. It is found that the highest values of TCO appear in the spring and winter months especially over north KSA, while the lowest values of TCO occur in the autumn months. The highest values of the coefficient of variation (COV) for TCO occur in winter and spring as they gradually decrease southward, while the lowest COV values appear in summer and autumn. The Mann–Kendall test indicates that the positive trend values are dominant for the annual and seasonal TCO values over KSA, and they gradually increase southward. The study of long-term variability of annual TCO at KSA stations shows negative trend values are the dominant behavior during the 1979–2004 period, while positive trend values are the dominant behavior during the 2004–2020 period. The Mann–Whitney test assessed the abrupt change of the annual TCO time series at 28 stations in KSA and confirmed that there is an abrupt change towards increasing values around 2000, 2005, and 2014. The climatological monthly mean of the ozone mass mixing ratio (OMR) is studied at three stations representing the north, middle, and south of KSA. The highest values of OMR are found in the layer between 20 and 4 hPa with the maximum in summer and early autumn, while the lowest values are found below 100 hPa.

Evaluation of Tropospheric Moisture Characteristics Among COSMIC-2, ERA5 and MERRA-2 in the Tropics and Subtropics

Global navigation satellite system (GNSS) radio occultation (RO) receivers onboard the recently-launched COSMIC-2 (C2) satellite constellation provide an unprecedented number of high vertical resolution moisture profiles throughout the tropical and subtropical atmosphere. In this study, the distribution and variability of water vapor was investigated using specific humidity retrievals from C2 observations and compared to collocated ERA5 and MERRA-2 reanalysis profiles within 40°N to 40°S from September to December 2019, which is prior to the assimilation of C2 in the reanalyses. Negative C2 moisture biases are evident within the boundary layer, so we focused on levels above the boundary layer in this study. Overall, C2 specific humidity shows excellent agreement with that of ERA5 and has larger differences with that of MERRA-2. In the tropical mid-troposphere, C2 shows positive biases compared to ERA5 (6–12%) and larger negative biases with MERRA-2 (15–30%). Strong correlations are observed between C2 and reanalysis specific humidity in the subtropics (>0.8) whereas correlations are slightly weaker in the deep tropics, especially for MERRA-2. Profile pairs with large moisture differences often occur in areas with sharp moisture gradients, highlighting the importance of measurement resolution. Locations which demonstrated weaker humidity correlations in active convection regions show that ERA5 has a negative specific humidity bias at 3 km in higher moisture environments, whereas MERRA-2 displays a large positive bias at 7 km. However, additional explanations for profile pairs with large moisture differences remain unclear and require further study.

The Impact of the Observation Data Assimilation on Atmospheric Reanalyses over Tibetan Plateau and Western Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau

Three modern atmospheric reanalyses with different input observation data (NOAA–CIRES 20th Century Reanalysis (20CR), Japanese 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55), and JRA-55C) were compared against the independent radiosonde observations over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and the western Yunnan–Guizhou Plateau (YGP) from the China-Japan Meteorological Disaster Reduction Cooperation (JICA/Tibet) Center Project in the summer of 2018 to investigate the effects of the assimilation of the observation data on the quality and accuracy of the reanalyses in the troposphere. The results indicate that the mean biases and mean root-mean-square errors of horizontal wind, temperature, and specific humidity significantly decreased when comparing the 20CR reanalysis (assimilating only surface pressure) to the JRA-55C (assimilating conventional surface and upper-air observations) and the JRA-55 (assimilating conventional and satellite observations), and the bias spreads of these aboveground variables in JRA-55C and JRA-55 were cut to almost half of those observed in 20CR. However, the mean biases and uncertainties varied little from JRA-55C to JRA-55. This means that the assimilation of conventional observation data plays a vital role in the quality of reanalyses for the troposphere over these data-sparse plateaus. It was also found that the temperature and specific humidity near the ground over TP showed larger mean biases and bias spans than those over YGP, likely due to the sparser surface observation over TP.

Evaluation of the Diurnal Variation of Upper Tropospheric Humidity in Reanalysis Using Homogenized Observed Radiances from International Geostationary Weather Satellites

A near global dataset of homogenized clear-sky 6.5-μm brightness temperatures (BTs) from international geostationary (GEO) weather satellites has recently been generated and validated. In this study, these radiance measurements are used to construct the diurnal variation of upper tropospheric humidity (UTH) and to evaluate these diurnal variations simulated by five reanalysis datasets over the 45° N–45° S region. The features of the diurnal variation described by the new dataset are comparable with previous observational studies that a land–sea contrast in the diurnal variation of UTH is exhibited. Distinct diurnal variations are observed over the deep convective regions where high UTH exists. The evaluation of reanalysis datasets indicates that reanalysis systems still have considerable difficulties in capturing the observed features of the diurnal variation of UTH. All five reanalysis datasets present the largest wet biases in the afternoon when the observed UTH experiences a diurnal minimum. Reanalysis can roughly reproduce the day–night contrast of UTH but with much weaker amplitudes and later peak time over both land and ocean. Comparison of the geographical distribution of the diurnal variation shows that both ERA5 and MERRA-2 could capture the larger diurnal variations over convective regions. However, the diurnal amplitudes are widely underestimated, especially over convective land regions, while the phase biases are relatively larger over open oceans. These results suggest that some deficiencies may exist in convection and cloud parameterization schemes in reanalysis models.

Effects of Ozone and Clouds on Temporal Variability of Surface UV Radiation and UV Resources over Northern Eurasia Derived from Measurements and Modeling

Temporal variability in erythemal radiation over Northern Eurasia (40°–80° N, 10° W–180° E) due to total ozone column (X) and cloudiness was assessed by using retrievals from ERA-Interim reanalysis, TOMS/OMI satellite measurements, and INM-RSHU chemistry–climate model (CCM) for the 1979–2015 period. For clear-sky conditions during spring and summer, consistent trends in erythemal daily doses (Eery) up to +3%/decade, attributed to decreases in X, were calculated from the three datasets. Model experiments suggest that anthropogenic emissions of ozone-depleting substances were the largest contributor to Eery trends, while volcanic aerosol and changes in sea surface temperature also played an important role. For all-sky conditions, Eery trends, calculated from the ERA-Interim and TOMS/OMI data over the territory of Eastern Europe, Siberia and Northeastern Asia, were significantly larger (up to +5–8%/decade) due to a combination of decrease in ozone and cloudiness. In contrast, all-sky maximum trends in Eery, calculated from the CCM results, were only +3–4%/decade. While Eery trends for Northern Eurasia were generally positive, negative trends were observed in July over central Arctic regions due to an increase in cloudiness. Finally, changes in the ultraviolet (UV) resources (characteristics of UV radiation for beneficial (vitamin D production) or adverse (sunburn) effects on human health) were assessed. When defining a “UV optimum” condition with the best balance in Eery for human health, the observed increases in Eery led to a noticeable reduction of the area with UV optimum for skin types 1 and 2, especially in April. In contrast, in central Arctic regions, decreases in Eery in July resulted in a change from “UV excess” to “UV optimum” conditions for skin types 2 and 3.

Recent decline in extratropical lower stratospheric ozone attributed to circulation changes

1998-2016 ozone trends in the lower stratosphere (LS) are examined using the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications Version 2 (MERRA-2) and related NASA products. After removing biases resulting from step-changes in the MERRA-2 ozone observations, a discernible negative trend of -1.67±0.54 Dobson units per decade (DU/decade) is found in the 10-km layer above the tropopause between 20°N and 60°N. A weaker but statistically significant trend of -1.17±0.33 DU/decade exists between 50°S and 20°S. In the Tropics, a positive trend is seen in a 5-km layer above the tropopause. Analysis of an idealized tracer in a model simulation constrained by MERRA-2 meteorological fields provides strong evidence that these trends are driven by enhanced isentropic transport between the tropical (20°S-20°N) and extratropical LS in the past two decades. This is the first time that a reanalysis dataset has been used to detect and attribute trends in lower stratospheric ozone.