The Stratospheric Water and Ozone Satellite Homogenized (SWOOSH) database: a long-term database for climate studies

Stratospheric influence on surface ozone pollution in China

Events of stratospheric intrusions to the surface (SITS) can lead to severe ozone (O3) pollution. Still, to what extent SITS events impact surface O3 on a national scale over years remains a long-lasting question, mainly due to difficulty of resolving three key SITS metrics: frequency, duration and intensity. Here, we identify 27,616 SITS events over China during 2015-2022 based on spatiotemporally dense surface measurements of O3 and carbon monoxide, two effective indicators of SITS. An overview of the three metrics is presented, illustrating large influences of SITS on surface O3 in China. We find that SITS events occur preferentially in high-elevation regions, while those in plain regions are more intense. SITS enhances surface O3 by 20 ppbv on average, contributing to 30-45% of O3 during SITS periods. Nationally, SITS-induced O3 peaks in spring and autumn, while over 70% of SITS events during the warm months exacerbate O3 pollution. Over 2015-2022, SITS-induced O3 shows a declining trend. Our observation-based results can have implications for O3 mitigation policies in short and long terms.

Rapid ozone depletion after humidification of the stratosphere by the Hunga Tonga Eruption

The eruption of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai volcano on 15 January 2022 offered a good opportunity to explore the early impacts of tropical volcanic eruptions on stratospheric composition. Balloon-borne observations near Réunion Island revealed the unprecedented amount of water vapor injected by the volcano. The enhanced stratospheric humidity, radiative cooling, and expanded aerosol surface area in the volcanic plume created the ideal conditions for swift ozone depletion of 5% in the tropical stratosphere in just 1 week. The decrease in hydrogen chloride by 0.4 parts per million by volume (ppbv) and the increase in chlorine monoxide by 0.4 ppbv provided compelling evidence for chlorine activation within the volcanic plume. This study enhances our understanding of the effect of this unusual volcanic eruption on stratospheric chemistry and provides insights into possible chemistry changes that may occur in a changing climate.

Stratospheric water vapor affecting atmospheric circulation

Water vapor plays an important role in many aspects of the climate system, by affecting radiation, cloud formation, atmospheric chemistry and dynamics. Even the low stratospheric water vapor content provides an important climate feedback, but current climate models show a substantial moist bias in the lowermost stratosphere. Here we report crucial sensitivity of the atmospheric circulation in the stratosphere and troposphere to the abundance of water vapor in the lowermost stratosphere. We show from a mechanistic climate model experiment and inter-model variability that lowermost stratospheric water vapor decreases local temperatures, and thereby causes an upward and poleward shift of subtropical jets, a strengthening of the stratospheric circulation, a poleward shift of the tropospheric eddy-driven jet and regional climate impacts. The mechanistic model experiment in combination with atmospheric observations further shows that the prevailing moist bias in current models is likely caused by the transport scheme, and can be alleviated by employing a less diffusive Lagrangian scheme. The related effects on atmospheric circulation are of similar magnitude as climate change effects. Hence, lowermost stratospheric water vapor exerts a first order effect on atmospheric circulation and improving its representation in models offers promising prospects for future research.

Response of stratospheric water vapour to warming constrained by satellite observations

Future increases in stratospheric water vapour risk amplifying climate change and slowing down the recovery of the ozone layer. However, state-of-the-art climate models strongly disagree on the magnitude of these increases under global warming. Uncertainty primarily arises from the complex processes leading to dehydration of air during its tropical ascent into the stratosphere. Here we derive an observational constraint on this longstanding uncertainty. We use a statistical-learning approach to infer historical co-variations between the atmospheric temperature structure and tropical lower stratospheric water vapour concentrations. For climate models, we demonstrate that these historically constrained relationships are highly predictive of the water vapour response to increased atmospheric carbon dioxide. We obtain an observationally constrained range for stratospheric water vapour changes per degree of global warming of 0.31 ± 0.39 ppmv K-1. Across 61 climate models, we find that a large fraction of future model projections are inconsistent with observational evidence. In particular, frequently projected strong increases (>1 ppmv K-1) are highly unlikely. Our constraint represents a 50% decrease in the 95th percentile of the climate model uncertainty distribution, which has implications for surface warming, ozone recovery and the tropospheric circulation response under climate change.

Climate change favours large seasonal loss of Arctic ozone

Chemical loss of Arctic ozone due to anthropogenic halogens is driven by temperature, with more loss occurring during cold winters favourable for formation of polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs). We show that a positive, statistically significant rise in the local maxima of PSC formation potential (PFP^LM) for cold winters is apparent in meteorological data collected over the past half century. Output from numerous General Circulation Models (GCMs) also exhibits positive trends in PFP^LM over 1950 to 2100, with highest values occurring at end of century, for simulations driven by a large rise in the radiative forcing of climate from greenhouse gases (GHGs). We combine projections of stratospheric halogen loading and humidity with GCM-based forecasts of temperature to suggest that conditions favourable for large, seasonal loss of Arctic column O₃ could persist or even worsen until the end of this century, if future abundances of GHGs continue to steeply rise.

Evaluation of CLARA-A2 and ISCCP-H Cloud Cover Climate Data Records over Europe with ECA&D Ground-Based Measurements

Clouds are of high importance for the climate system but they still remain one of its principal uncertainties. Remote sensing techniques applied to satellite observations have assisted tremendously in the creation of long-term and homogeneous data records; however, satellite data sets need to be validated and compared with other data records, especially ground measurements. In the present study, the spatiotemporal distribution and variability of Total Cloud Cover (TCC) from the Satellite Application Facility on Climate Monitoring (CM SAF) Cloud, Albedo And Surface Radiation dataset from AVHRR data—edition 2 (CLARA-A2) and the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project H-series (ISCCP-H) is analyzed over Europe. The CLARA-A2 data record has been created using measurements of the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) instrument onboard the polar orbiting NOAA and the EUMETSAT MetOp satellites, whereas the ISCCP-H data were produced by a combination of measurements from geostationary meteorological satellites and the AVHRR instrument on the polar orbiting satellites. An intercomparison of the two data records is performed over their common period, 1984 to 2012. In addition, a comparison of the two satellite data records is made against TCC observations at 22 meteorological stations in Europe, from the European Climate Assessment & Dataset (ECA&D). The results indicate generally larger ISCCP-H TCC with respect to the corresponding CLARA-A2 data, in particular in the Mediterranean. Compared to ECA&D data, both satellite datasets reveal a reasonable performance, with overall mean TCC biases of 2.1 and 5.2% for CLARA-A2 and ISCCP-H, respectively. This, along with the higher correlation coefficients between CLARA-A2 and ECA&D TCC, indicates the better performance of CLARA-A2 TCC data.

Improved Global Surface Temperature Simulation using Stratospheric Ozone Forcing with More Accurate Variability

Increasingly, studies have pointed out that variations of stratospheric ozone significantly influence climate change in the Northern and Southern hemispheres. This leads us to consider whether making the variations of stratospheric ozone in a climate model closer to real ozone changes would improve the simulation of global climate change. It is found that replacing the original specified stratospheric ozone forcing with more accurate stratospheric ozone variations improves the simulated variations of surface temperature in a climate model. The improved stratospheric ozone variations in the Northern Hemisphere lead to better simulation of variations in Northern Hemisphere circulation. As a result, the simulated variabilities of surface temperature in the middle of the Eurasian continent and in lower latitudes are improved. In the Southern Hemisphere, improvements in surface temperature variations that result from improved stratospheric ozone variations influence the simulation of westerly winds. The simulations also suggest that the decreasing trend of stratospheric ozone may have enhanced the warming trend at high latitudes in the second half of the 20th century. Our results not only reinforce the importance of accurately simulating the stratospheric ozone but also imply the need for including fully coupled stratospheric dynamical–radiative–chemical processes in climate models to predict future climate changes.

Nonlinear response of tropical lower stratospheric temperature and water vapor to ENSO

A series of simulations using the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model are analyzed in order to assess interannual and sub-decadal variability in the tropical lower stratosphere over the past 35 years. The impact of El Niño-Southern Oscillation on temperature and water vapor in this region is nonlinear in boreal spring. While moderate El Niño events lead to cooling in this region, strong El Niño events lead to warming, even as the response of the large scale Brewer Dobson Circulation appears to scale nearly linearly with El Niño. This nonlinearity is shown to arise from the response in the Indo-West Pacific to El Niño: strong El Niño events lead to tropospheric warming extending into the tropical tropopause layer and up to the cold point in this region, where it allows for more water vapor to enter the stratosphere. The net effect is that both strong La Niña and strong El Niño events lead to enhanced entry water vapor and stratospheric moistening in boreal spring and early summer. These results lead to the following interpretation of the contribution of sea surface temperatures to the decline in water vapor from the late 1990s to the early 2000s: the very strong El Niño event in 1997/1998, followed by more than two consecutive years of La Niña, led to enhanced lower stratospheric water vapor. As this period ended in early 2001, entry water vapor concentrations declined. This effect accounts for approximately one-quarter of the observed drop.

Nonlinear response of tropical lower stratospheric temperature and water vapor to ENSO

A series of simulations using the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model are analyzed in order to assess interannual and sub-decadal variability in the tropical lower stratosphere over the past 35 years. The impact of El Niño-Southern Oscillation on temperature and water vapor in this region is nonlinear in boreal spring. While moderate El Niño events lead to cooling in this region, strong El Niño events lead to warming, even as the response of the large scale Brewer Dobson Circulation appears to scale nearly linearly with El Niño. This nonlinearity is shown to arise from the response in the Indo-West Pacific to El Niño: strong El Niño events lead to tropospheric warming extending into the tropical tropopause layer and up to the cold point in this region, where it allows for more water vapor to enter the stratosphere. The net effect is that both strong La Niña and strong El Niño events lead to enhanced entry water vapor and stratospheric moistening in boreal spring and early summer. These results lead to the following interpretation of the contribution of sea surface temperatures to the decline in water vapor from the late 1990s to the early 2000s: the very strong El Niño event in 1997/1998, followed by more than two consecutive years of La Niña, led to enhanced lower stratospheric water vapor. As this period ended in early 2001, entry water vapor concentrations declined. This effect accounts for approximately one-quarter of the observed drop.

Detecting recovery of the stratospheric ozone layer

As a result of the 1987 Montreal Protocol and its amendments, the atmospheric loading of anthropogenic ozone-depleting substances is decreasing. Accordingly, the stratospheric ozone layer is expected to recover. However, short data records and atmospheric variability confound the search for early signs of recovery, and climate change is masking ozone recovery from ozone-depleting substances in some regions and will increasingly affect the extent of recovery. Here we discuss the nature and timescales of ozone recovery, and explore the extent to which it can be currently detected in different atmospheric regions.

Assessment of upper tropospheric and stratospheric water vapor and ozone in reanalyses as part of S-RIP

Reanalysis data sets are widely used to understand atmospheric processes and past variability, and are often used to stand in as "observations" for comparisons with climate model output. Because of the central role of water vapor (WV) and ozone (O₃) in climate change, it is important to understand how accurately and consistently these species are represented in existing global reanalyses. In this paper, we present the results of WV and O₃ intercomparisons that have been performed as part of the SPARC (Stratosphere-troposphere Processes and their Role in Climate) Reanalysis Intercomparison Project (S-RIP). The comparisons cover a range of timescales and evaluate both inter-reanalysis and observation-reanalysis differences. We also provide a systematic documentation of the treatment of WV and O₃ in current reanalyses to aid future research and guide the interpretation of differences amongst reanalysis fields. The assimilation of total column ozone (TCO) observations in newer reanalyses results in realistic representations of TCO in reanalyses except when data coverage is lacking, such as during polar night. The vertical distribution of ozone is also relatively well represented in the stratosphere in reanalyses, particularly given the relatively weak constraints on ozone vertical structure provided by most assimilated observations and the simplistic representations of ozone photochemical processes in most of the reanalysis forecast models. However, significant biases in the vertical distribution of ozone are found in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere in all reanalyses. In contrast to O₃, reanalysis estimates of stratospheric WV are not directly constrained by assimilated data. Observations of atmospheric humidity are typically used only in the troposphere, below a specified vertical level at or near the tropopause. The fidelity of reanalysis stratospheric WV products is therefore mainly dependent on the reanalyses' representation of the physical drivers that influence stratospheric WV, such as temperatures in the tropical tropopause layer, methane oxidation, and the stratospheric overturning circulation. The lack of assimilated observations and known deficiencies in the representation of stratospheric transport in reanalyses result in much poorer agreement amongst observational and reanalysis estimates of stratospheric WV. Hence, stratospheric WV products from the current generation of reanalyses should generally not be used in scientific studies.

Ground-based assessment of the bias and long-term stability of fourteen limb and occultation ozone profile data records

The ozone profile records of a large number of limb and occultation satellite instruments are widely used to address several key questions in ozone research. Further progress in some domains depends on a more detailed understanding of these data sets, especially of their long-term stability and their mutual consistency. To this end, we made a systematic assessment of fourteen limb and occultation sounders that, together, provide more than three decades of global ozone profile measurements. In particular, we considered the latest operational Level-2 records by SAGE II, SAGE III, HALOE, UARS MLS, Aura MLS, POAM II, POAM III, OSIRIS, SMR, GOMOS, MIPAS, SCIAMACHY, ACE-FTS and MAESTRO. Central to our work is a consistent and robust analysis of the comparisons against the ground-based ozonesonde and stratospheric ozone lidar networks. It allowed us to investigate, from the troposphere up to the stratopause, the following main aspects of satellite data quality: long-term stability, overall bias, and short-term variability, together with their dependence on geophysical parameters and profile representation. In addition, it permitted us to quantify the overall consistency between the ozone profilers. Generally, we found that between 20-40 km the satellite ozone measurement biases are smaller than ±5 %, the short-term variabilities are less than 5-12% and the drifts are at most ±5% decade^-1 (or even ±3 % decade^-1 for a few records). The agreement with ground-based data degrades somewhat towards the stratopause and especially towards the tropopause where natural variability and low ozone abundances impede a more precise analysis. In part of the stratosphere a few records deviate from the preceding general conclusions; we identified biases of 10% and more (POAM II and SCIAMACHY), markedly higher single-profile variability (SMR and SCIAMACHY), and significant long-term drifts (SCIAMACHY, OSIRIS, HALOE, and possibly GOMOS and SMR as well). Furthermore, we reflected on the repercussions of our findings for the construction, analysis and interpretation of merged data records. Most notably, the discrepancies between several recent ozone profile trend assessments can be mostly explained by instrumental drift. This clearly demonstrates the need for systematic comprehensive multi-instrument comparison analyses.

Ground-based assessment of the bias and long-term stability of fourteen limb and occultation ozone profile data records

The ozone profile records of a large number of limb and occultation satellite instruments are widely used to address several key questions in ozone research. Further progress in some domains depends on a more detailed understanding of these data sets, especially of their long-term stability and their mutual consistency. To this end, we made a systematic assessment of fourteen limb and occultation sounders that, together, provide more than three decades of global ozone profile measurements. In particular, we considered the latest operational Level-2 records by SAGE II, SAGE III, HALOE, UARS MLS, Aura MLS, POAM II, POAM III, OSIRIS, SMR, GOMOS, MIPAS, SCIAMACHY, ACE-FTS and MAESTRO. Central to our work is a consistent and robust analysis of the comparisons against the ground-based ozonesonde and stratospheric ozone lidar networks. It allowed us to investigate, from the troposphere up to the stratopause, the following main aspects of satellite data quality: long-term stability, overall bias, and short-term variability, together with their dependence on geophysical parameters and profile representation. In addition, it permitted us to quantify the overall consistency between the ozone profilers. Generally, we found that between 20-40 km the satellite ozone measurement biases are smaller than ±5 %, the short-term variabilities are less than 5-12% and the drifts are at most ±5% decade^-1 (or even ±3 % decade^-1 for a few records). The agreement with ground-based data degrades somewhat towards the stratopause and especially towards the tropopause where natural variability and low ozone abundances impede a more precise analysis. In part of the stratosphere a few records deviate from the preceding general conclusions; we identified biases of 10% and more (POAM II and SCIAMACHY), markedly higher single-profile variability (SMR and SCIAMACHY), and significant long-term drifts (SCIAMACHY, OSIRIS, HALOE, and possibly GOMOS and SMR as well). Furthermore, we reflected on the repercussions of our findings for the construction, analysis and interpretation of merged data records. Most notably, the discrepancies between several recent ozone profile trend assessments can be mostly explained by instrumental drift. This clearly demonstrates the need for systematic comprehensive multi-instrument comparison analyses.