CURB-65 plus hypoalbuminemia: a new score system for prediction of the in-hospital mortality risk in patients with SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia

Evaluating the CURB-65 score for in-hospital mortality prediction in COVID-19 patients: insights into dysglycaemia

Introduction

While the CURB-65 score predicts mortality in community-acquired pneumonia (CAP), its performance in COVID-19 CAP is suboptimal. Hyperglycaemia correlates with an increased mortality in COVID-19. This analysis aims to enhance predictive accuracy for in-hospital mortality among COVID-19 patients by augmenting the CURB-65 score with objective variables, including markers of dysglycaemia.

Design

A single-centre retrospective observational analysis assessed the effectiveness of the CURB-65 score in predicting in-hospital mortality among adult patients with moderate to severe COVID-19 from March to September 2020. Using a binary logistic regression model, two extended CURB-65 scores which include markers of dysglycemia are proposed to enhance the predictive capability of the CURB-65 score for in-hospital mortality.

Results

Among 517 patients admitted, 117 (22.6%) died. Using the CURB-65 score, 393 patients (76%) were classified as low risk, 91 (17.6%) as medium risk and 33 (6.4%) as high risk. 37 patients were diagnosed with new-onset dysglycaemia, of which 22 (59.5%) died (p<0.001). Of those with dysglycaemia who died, 41% and 23% were classified as low risk and high risk using the CURB-65 score. The CURB-65 score demonstrated a modest area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.75 (95% CI 0.70 to 0.81) for in-hospital mortality in COVID-19 CAP. An Extended CURB-65 Score 1, incorporating an admission of fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio, showed improved prognostic performance with an AUC of 0.80 (95% CI 0.76 to 0.85). When lactate and lactate dehydrogenase were added to these parameters (Extended CURB-65 Score 2), the AUC was 0.82 (95% CI 0.78 to 0.86). The integrated discrimination index showed an 11% and 24% higher discrimination slope when using the Extended CURB-65 Scores 1 and 2, respectively.

Conclusions

The addition of common biochemical parameters including an admission FPG enhances the prognostic performance of CURB-65 for in-hospital mortality among patients with COVID-19.

Association between anion gap and the 30-day mortality of patients with ventilator-associated pneumonia: a study of the MIMIC-III database

Background

Serum anion gap (AG) can potentially be applied to the diagnosis of various metabolic acidosis, and a recent study has reported the association of AG with the mortality of patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). However, the relationship of AG with the short-term mortality of patients with ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP) is still unclear. Herein, we aimed to investigate the association between AG and the 30-day mortality of VAP patients, and construct and assess a multivariate predictive model for the 30-day mortality risk of VAP.

Methods

This retrospective cohort study extracted data of 477 patients with VAP from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care III (MIMIC-III) database. Data of patients were divided into a training set and a testing set with a ratio of 7:3. In the training set, variables significantly associated with the 30-day mortality of VAP patients were included in the multivariate predictive model through univariate Cox regression and stepwise regression analyses. Then, the predictive performance of the multivariate predictive model was assessed in both training set and testing set, and compared with the single AG and other scoring systems including the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score, the confusion, urea, respiratory rate (RR), blood pressure, and age (≥65 years old) (CURB-65) score, and the blood urea nitrogen (BUN), altered mental status, pulse, and age (>65 years old) (BAP-65) score. In addition, the association of AG with the 30-day mortality of VAP patients was explored in subgroups of gender, age, and infection status. The evaluation indexes were hazard ratios (HRs), C-index, and 95% confidence intervals (CIs).

Results

A total of 70 patients died within 30 days. The multivariate predictive model consisted of AG (HR =1.052, 95% CI: 1.008-1.098), age (HR =1.037, 95% CI: 1.019-1.055), duration of mechanical ventilation (HR =0.998, 95% CI: 0.996-0.999), and vasopressors use (HR =1.795, 95% CI: 1.066-3.023). In both training set (C-index =0.725, 95% CI: 0.670-0.780) and testing set (C-index =0.717, 95% CI: 0.637-0.797), the multivariate model had a relatively superior predictive performance to the single AG value. Moreover, the association of AG with the 30-day mortality was also found in patients who were male (HR =1.088, 95% CI: 1.029-1.150), and whatever the pathogens they infected (bacterial infection: HR =1.059, 95% CI: 1.011-1.109; fungal infection: HR =1.057, 95% CI: 1.002-1.115).

Conclusions

The AG-related multivariate model had a potential predictive value for the 30-day mortality of patients with VAP. These findings may provide some references for further exploration on simple and robust predictors of the short-term mortality risk of VAP, which may further help clinicians to identify patients with high risk of mortality in an early stage in the intensive care units (ICUs).

Prediction of Poor Outcome Using the Urea to Albumin Ratio in Thoracic Empyema

Purpose

The prognostic performance of urea-to-albumin ratio (UAR) has been assessed in various pulmonary and nonpulmonary conditions, but never in thoracic empyema. Therefore, our aim was to determine whether this marker has the ability to predict outcome in such patients.

Methods

A single-center retrospective study was conducted in a Clinic of Thoracic Surgery at a University Hospital between January 2021 and October 2023. A total of 84 patients who underwent emergency surgery due to thoracic empyema were involved. Serum levels of urea and albumin at admission were used to calculate UAR. We analyzed area under receiver operating characteristics (AUROC) curves of UAR, systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) and quick-sequential organ failure assessment (qSOFA), and compared their prognostic performance.

Results

The identified in-hospital mortality was 10.7%. The UAR showed the best ability to prognosticate mortality compared to qSOFA (AUROC = 0.828 vs 0.747) and SIRS (AUROC = 0.828 vs 0.676). We established a sensitivity of 87.5% and specificity of 74.2% at optimal cut-off value UAR > 51.1 for prediction of adverse outcome.

Conclusion

In patients with thoracic empyema urea-to-albumin ratio showed significant prognostic performance and a potential for clinical application as a low cost and widely available predictor of death.

The Battle of the Pneumonia Predictors: A Comprehensive Meta-Analysis Comparing the Pneumonia Severity Index (PSI) and the CURB-65 Score in Predicting Mortality and the Need for ICU Support

The CURB-65 (confusion, uremia, respiratory rate, blood pressure, age ≥ 65 years) score and the pneumonia severity index (PSI) are widely used and recommended in predicting 30-day mortality and the need for intensive care support in community-acquired pneumonia. This study aims to compare the performance of these two severity scores in both mortality prediction and the need for intensive care support. A systematic review and meta-analysis was carried out, following the PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis) 2020 guidelines, and PubMed, Scopus, ScienceDirect, and Google Scholar were searched for articles published from 2012 to 2022. The reference lists of the included studies were also searched to retrieve possible additional studies. Twenty-five studies reporting prognostic information for CURB 65 and PSI were identified. ReviewManager (RevMan) 5.4.1 was used to produce risk ratios, and a random effects model was used to pool them. Both PSI and CURB-65 showed a high strength in identifying high-risk patients. However, CURB-65 was slightly better in early mortality prediction and had more sensitivity (96.7%) and specificity (89.3%) in predicting admission to intensive care support. Thus, CURB-65 seems to be the preferred tool in predicting mortality and the need for admission into intensive care support.

Fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) Index and mortality in COVID-19 patients admitted to the emergency department

Liver damage worsens the prognosis of coronavirus 19 disease (COVID-19). However, the best strategy to stratify mortality risk according to liver damage has not been established. The aim of this study is to test the predictive value of the validated Fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) Index and compared it to liver transaminases and to the AST-to-Platelet ratio index (APRI). Multicenter cohort study including 992 consecutive COVID-19 patients admitted to the Emergency Department. FIB-4 > 3.25 and APRI > 0.7 were used to define liver damage. Multivariable Cox regression and ROC curve analysis for mortality were performed. Secondary endpoints were (1) need for high-flow oxygen and (2) mechanical ventilation. 240 (24.2%) patients had a FIB-4 > 3.25. FIB-4 > 3.25 associated with an increased mortality (n = 119, log-rank test p < 0.001 and adjusted hazard ratio (HR) 1.72 (95% confidence interval [95%CI] 1.14-2.59, p = 0.010). ROC analysis for mortality showed that FIB-4 (AUC 0.734, 95% CI 0.705-0.761) had a higher predictive value than AST (p = 0.0018) and ALT (p < 0.0001). FIB-4 > 3.25 was also superior to APRI > 0.7 (AUC 0.58, 95% CI 0.553-0.615, p = 0.0008). Using an optimized cut-off > 2.76 (AUC 0.689, 95% CI 0.659-0.718, p < 0.0001), FIB-4 was superior to FIB-4 > 3.25 (p = 0.0302), APRI > 0.7 (p < 0.0001), AST > 51 (p = 0.0119) and ALT > 42 (p < 0.0001). FIB-4 was also associated with high-flow oxygen use (n = 255, HR 1.69, 95% CI 1.25-2.28, p = 0.001) and mechanical ventilation (n = 39, HR 2.07, 95% CI 1.03-4.19, p = 0.043). FIB-4 score predicts mortality better than liver transaminases and APRI score. FIB-4 score may be an easy tool to identify COVID-19 patients at worse prognosis in the emergency department.

Comparison of Pneumonia Severity Indices, qCSI, 4C-Mortality Score and qSOFA in Predicting Mortality in Hospitalized Patients with COVID-19 Pneumonia

This is a retrospective and observational study on 1511 patients with SARS-CoV-2, who were diagnosed with COVID-19 by real-time PCR testing and hospitalized due to COVID-19 pneumonia. 1511 patients, 879 male (58.17%) and 632 female (41.83%) with a mean age of 60.1 ± 14.7 were included in the study. Survivors and non-survivors groups were statistically compared with respect to survival, discharge, ICU admission and in-hospital death. Although gender was not statistically significant different between two groups, 80 (60.15%) of the patients who died were male. Mean age was 72.8 ± 11.8 in non-survivors vs. 59.9 ± 14.7 in survivors (p < 0.001). Overall in-hospital mortality was found to be 8.8% (133/1511 cases), and overall ICU admission was 10.85% (164/1511 cases). The PSI/PORT score of the non-survivors group was higher than that of the survivors group (144.38 ± 28.64 versus 67.17 ± 25.63, p < 0.001). The PSI/PORT yielding the highest performance was the best predictor for in-hospital mortality, since it incorporates the factors as advanced age and comorbidity (AUROC 0.971; % 95 CI 0.961−0.981). The use of A-DROP may also be preferred as an easier alternative to PSI/PORT, which is a time-consuming evaluation although it is more comprehensive.