Assessing the Risk for Development of Deep Vein Thrombosis among Chinese Patients using the 2010 Caprini Risk Assessment Model: A Prospective Multicenter Study

Risk factors for post-operative VTE following colorectal surgery: Is caprini score enough?

BACKGROUND

Post-operative colorectal venous thromboembolism (VTE) rates range between 1 and 3%. Often, surgeons utilize risk assessment models, like the modified Caprini, to determine need for prophylaxis. However, studies reveal additional unaccounted risk factors like preoperative serum albumin level, perioperative blood transfusion, emergency surgery, and preoperative steroid use.

METHODS

This was a multicenter, retrospective study conducted between January 2021-December 2021. The primary endpoint was to assess the VTE rate within 30 days post-operatively.

RESULTS

Overall, incidence rate was 1.75%. Of these, 53% underwent urgent/emergent surgery and 60% had perioperative blood transfusions. Twelve patients had a known preoperative serum albumin level, with 66% being less than 3.5 ​g/dL. Only 30% of patients had a high Caprini risk score. No patient had preoperative steroid use.

CONCLUSION

The study suggests considering urgent/emergent surgeries, low preoperative albumin levels, and blood transfusions for enhanced VTE screening and prophylaxis in post-operative colorectal patients.

Development and validation of a novel screening tool for deep vein thrombosis in patients with spinal cord injury: A five-year cross-sectional study

STUDY DESIGN

Cross-sectional study.

OBJECTIVES

Deep vein thrombosis (DVT) presents a significant risk of complication in patients with spinal cord injury (SCI), necessitating accurate screening methods. While the Caprini Risk Assessment Model (Caprini RAM) has seen extensive use for DVT screening, its efficacy remains under scrutiny.

SETTING

First Affiliated Hospital of China University of Science and Technology.

METHODS

We created and evaluated three nomograms for their effectiveness in DVT screening. Model 1 incorporated variables such as age, D-dimer level, red blood cell (RBC) counts, platelet counts, presence of type 2 diabetes mellitus, high blood pressure, mode and level of injury, degree of impairments, and Caprini scores. Model 2 was derived from Caprini scores alone, and Model 3 focused on independent risk factors. We assessed these models using the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC), calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA), employing bootstrap resampling tests (500 iterations) to determine their accuracy, discriminative ability, and clinical utility. Internal validation was performed on a separate cohort. Nomogram was established with well-fitted calibration curves for model 1, 2 and 3(AUC = 0.808, 0.751 and 0.797; 95%CI = 0.76-0.86, 0.70-0.80 and 0.75-0.84; respectively), indicating model 1 outperformed the others in prediction DVT risk, followed by model 3 and 2. These findings were consistent in the validation cohort, with DCA further corroborating our conclusions.

CONCLUSION

A nomogram integrating clinical data with Caprini RAM provides a superior option for DVT screening in SCI patients within rehabilitation settings, outperforming Caprini RAM.

Prediction model of deep vein thrombosis risk after lower extremity orthopedic surgery

Purpose

This investigation was conceived to engineer and appraise a pioneering clinical nomogram, crafted to bridge the extant chasm in literature regarding the postoperative risk stratification for deep vein thrombosis (DVT) in the aftermath of lower extremity orthopedic procedures. This novel tool offers a sophisticated and discerning algorithm for risk prediction, heretofore unmet by existing methodologies.

Methods

In this retrospective observational study, clinical records of hospitalized patients who underwent lower extremity orthopedic surgery were collected at the Wuxi TCM Hospital Affiliated to the Nanjing University of Chinese Medicine between Jan 2017 and Oct 2019. The univariate and multivariate analysis with the backward stepwise method was applied to select features for the predictive nomogram. The performance of the nomogram was evaluated with respect to its discriminant capability, calibration ability, and clinical utility.

Result

A total of 5773 in-hospital patients were eligible for the study, with the incidence of deep vein thrombosis being approximately 1 % in this population. Among 31 variables included, 5 of them were identified to be the predictive features in the nomogram, including age, mean corpuscular hemoglobin concentration (MCHC), D-dimer, platelet distribution width (PDW), and thrombin time (TT). The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve in the training and validation cohort was 85.9 % (95%CI: 79.96 %-90.04 %) and 85.7 % (95%CI: 78.96 %-90.69 %), respectively. Both the calibration curves and decision curve analysis demonstrated the overall satisfactory performance of the model.

Conclusion

Our groundbreaking nomogram is distinguished by its unparalleled accuracy in discriminative and calibrating functions, complemented by its tangible clinical applicability. This innovative instrument is set to empower clinicians with a robust framework for the accurate forecasting of postoperative DVT, thus facilitating the crafting of bespoke and prompt therapeutic strategies, aligning with the rigorous standards upheld by the most esteemed biomedical journals.

Evaluation of venous thromboembolism risk assessment models for hospital inpatients: the VTEAM evidence synthesis

Background

Pharmacological prophylaxis during hospital admission can reduce the risk of acquired blood clots (venous thromboembolism) but may cause complications, such as bleeding. Using a risk assessment model to predict the risk of blood clots could facilitate selection of patients for prophylaxis and optimise the balance of benefits, risks and costs.

Objectives

We aimed to identify validated risk assessment models and estimate their prognostic accuracy, evaluate the cost-effectiveness of different strategies for selecting hospitalised patients for prophylaxis, assess the feasibility of using efficient research methods and estimate key parameters for future research.

Design

We undertook a systematic review, decision-analytic modelling and observational cohort study conducted in accordance with Enhancing the QUAlity and Transparency Of health Research (EQUATOR) guidelines.

Setting

NHS hospitals, with primary data collection at four sites.

Participants

Medical and surgical hospital inpatients, excluding paediatric, critical care and pregnancy-related admissions.

Interventions

Prophylaxis for all patients, none and according to selected risk assessment models.

Main outcome measures

Model accuracy for predicting blood clots, lifetime costs and quality-adjusted life-years associated with alternative strategies, accuracy of efficient methods for identifying key outcomes and proportion of inpatients recommended prophylaxis using different models.

Results

We identified 24 validated risk assessment models, but low-quality heterogeneous data suggested weak accuracy for prediction of blood clots and generally high risk of bias in all studies. Decision-analytic modelling showed that pharmacological prophylaxis for all eligible is generally more cost-effective than model-based strategies for both medical and surgical inpatients, when valuing a quality-adjusted life-year at £20,000. The findings were more sensitive to uncertainties in the surgical population; strategies using risk assessment models were more cost-effective if the model was assumed to have a very high sensitivity, or the long-term risks of post-thrombotic complications were lower. Efficient methods using routine data did not accurately identify blood clots or bleeding events and several pre-specified feasibility criteria were not met. Theoretical prophylaxis rates across an inpatient cohort based on existing risk assessment models ranged from 13% to 91%.

Limitations

Existing studies may underestimate the accuracy of risk assessment models, leading to underestimation of their cost-effectiveness. The cost-effectiveness findings do not apply to patients with an increased risk of bleeding. Mechanical thromboprophylaxis options were excluded from the modelling. Primary data collection was predominately retrospective, risking case ascertainment bias.

Conclusions

Thromboprophylaxis for all patients appears to be generally more cost-effective than using a risk assessment model, in hospitalised patients at low risk of bleeding. To be cost-effective, any risk assessment model would need to be highly sensitive. Current evidence on risk assessment models is at high risk of bias and our findings should be interpreted in this context. We were unable to demonstrate the feasibility of using efficient methods to accurately detect relevant outcomes for future research.

Future work

Further research should evaluate routine prophylaxis strategies for all eligible hospitalised patients. Models that could accurately identify individuals at very low risk of blood clots (who could discontinue prophylaxis) warrant further evaluation.

Study registration

This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42020165778 and Researchregistry5216.

Funding

This award was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme (NIHR award ref: NIHR127454) and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 28, No. 20. See the NIHR Funding and Awards website for further award information.

Padua prediction score may be inappropriate for VTE risk assessment in hospitalized patients with acute respiratory conditions: A Chinese single-center cohort study

Background

The Padua Prediction Score (PPS) recommended by the guidelines lacks effective external validation in a Chinese cohort. This study sought to assess the accuracy of the PPS to predict venous thromboembolism (VTE) risk in medical inpatients with acute respiratory conditions.

Methods

This consecutive cohort study included 1,574 inpatients from January to August 2019. The occurrence rate of VTE in patients classified at high-risk and low-risk groups according to PPS and Caprini risk assessment model (RAM) was compared. The discriminatory capability of the RAMs was evaluated in all the patients and the subgroup without pharmacological prophylaxis. Reclassification parameters were also used to assess the clinical utility.

Results

170 (10.8%) patients were objectively confirmed as having VTE during hospitalization. The incidence rate of VTE in low-risk patients was 6.3% by PPS, which was significantly higher than that by Caprini RAM (2.6%, p < 0.001). The area under the curve (AUC) for PPS and Caprini RAM was 0.714 (95%CI, 0.672-0.756) and 0.760 (95%CI, 0.724-0.797), respectively (p = 0.003). The AUC of Caprini RAM was larger than PPS even in subgroups without pharmacological prophylaxis (0.774 vs 0.709, p = 0.002). Compared with Caprini RAM, the net reclassification index was estimated at 0.037 (p = 0.436), and integrated discrimination improvement was 0.015 (p = 0.495) by PPS.

Conclusions

According to our cohort study, PPS may not be appropriate to predict VTE risk in hospitalized patients with acute respiratory conditions. An accurate, widely applicable, validated RAM needs to be further constructed in Chinese medical inpatients.

The Thresholds of Caprini Score Associated With Increased Risk of Venous Thromboembolism Across Different Specialties: A Systematic Review

OBJECTIVE

Estimation of the specific thresholds of the Caprini risk score (CRS) that are associated with the increased incidence of venous thromboembolism (VTE) across different specialties, including identifying the highest level of risk.

BACKGROUND

Accurate risk assessment remains an important but often challenging aspect of VTE prophylaxis. One well-established risk assessment model is CRS, which has been validated in thousands of patients from many different medical and surgical specialties.

METHODS

A search of MEDLINE and the Cochrane Library was performed in March 2022. Manuscripts that reported on (1) patients admitted to medical or surgical departments and (2) had their VTE risk assessed by CRS and (3) reported on the correlation between the score and VTE incidence, were included in the analysis.

RESULTS

A total of 4562 references were identified, and the full text of 202 papers was assessed for eligibility. The correlation between CRS and VTE incidence was reported in 68 studies that enrolled 4,207,895 patients. In all specialties, a significant increase in VTE incidence was observed in patients with a CRS of ≥5. In most specialties thresholds of ≥7, ≥9, and ≥11 to 12 were associated with dramatically increased incidences of VTE. In COVID-19, cancer, trauma, vascular, general, head and neck, and thoracic surgery patients with ≥9 and ≥11 to 12 scores the VTE incidence was extremely high (ranging from 13% to 47%).

CONCLUSION

The Caprini score is being used increasingly to predict VTE in many medical and surgical specialties. In most cases, the VTE risk for individual patients increases dramatically at a threshold CRS of 7 to 11.

Improving thromboprophylaxis in the medical inpatients: The role of the resident in an academic hospital

INTRODUCTION

Venous thromboembolism (VTE) is one of the main causes of preventable in-hospital death. It is recommended for hospitals to have an appropriate thromboprophylaxis (TP) protocol to avoid VTE complications.

OBJECTIVE

To determine the effect of the resident physician feedback to the staff physician in TP appropriateness after the Caprini RAM score implementation.

METHODS

Caprini RAM was implemented by the residents in medical patients. Patients were divided in low, moderate, high, and highest-risk groups, with TP recommendation accordingly. In cases with inadequate TP, the resident provided feedback to the staff physician for adjustment. Change to appropriate TP was assessed retrospectively.

RESULTS

A total of 265 records were included. Before intervention, 193 (72.8%) patients had appropriate TP and post-intervention, 207 (78.1%) patients received adequate TP (p < .001).

CONCLUSIONS

Feedback from the internal medicine resident to staff physician improves appropriate TP in medical inpatients as a quality of care strategy.

Comparison of the predictive power of the 2005 and 2010 Caprini risk assessment models for deep vein thrombosis in Chinese orthopedic patients at admission: A prospective cohort study

INTRODUCTION

Several DVT risk assessment tools have been developed and validated to stratify the patients. The 2005 and 2010 Caprini risk assessment models (RAMs) proved reliable in detecting deep vein thrombosis (DVT) and are widely used worldwide. Although the 2010 version was recently modified, the 2005 version is still more exact and popular in the surgical population. This study aimed to compare the predictive power of the 2005 and 2010 Caprini RAMs in Chinese orthopedic patients at admission and describe the incidence of DVT during hospitalization.

STUDY DESIGN

This prospective cohort study involved 2733 patients from the Arthritis Clinic and Research Center, Orthopedics and Traumatology Department, Orthopedic Oncology Department, and Spinal Surgery Department of Peking University People's Hospital from September 2018 to January 2019. The DVT risk scores and levels were determined for all patients using the 2005 and 2010 Caprini RAMs at admission. The sensitivity and specificity of the two tools were calculated. The patients were divided into the screened and unscreened groups according to whether or not a Doppler ultrasound (DUS) was performed. Depending upon the DUS results, the patients were divided into the DVT and non-DVT groups. The receiver operation characteristic (ROC) curve and the area under the curve (AUC) were evaluated to compare the predictive power.

RESULTS

Eighty-four patients had DVT in the four orthopedic departments, and the incidence of DVT was 3.1 %-17.2 %. The scores between the 2005 and 2010 Caprini RAMs differed (P < 0.001) among orthopedic patients at admission. Among DVT patients, the highest-risk patients accounted for 63.5 % and 52.9 % based on the 2005 and 2010 Caprini RAMs, respectively. The AUCs of the 2005 and 1020 Caprini RAMs were 0.669 ± 0.030 and 0.648 ± 0.032, respectively. There were no significant differences between the two ROC curves (P = 0.164).

CONCLUSION

The 2005 and 2010 Caprini RAMs showed a similar predictive power in detecting DVT, but neither met the high sensitivity criteria for screening DVT in orthopedic patients. The incidence of DVT in orthopedic patients was relatively high during hospitalization.

The Risk Factors for New-Onset Calf Muscle Venous Thrombosis after Hip Fracture Surgery

BACKGROUND

Calf muscle venous thrombosis (CMVT) is among the most important medical complications after hip surgery. CMVT has been known for many years, but many opinions about the incidence and risk factors of CMVT are still controversial. The objective of this retrospective study was to investigate the incidence and associated risk factors of postoperative CMVT in patients with hip fractures.

METHODS

Patients with hip fractures from January 2020 to April 2022 (n = 320) at Shenzhen Second People's Hospital were recruited in this study. The personal characteristics and clinical data of CMVT and no-CMVT patients were compared and analyzed. Binary logistic regression analyses were performed to identify potential risk factors of CMVT in patients with hip fractures. Finally we performed a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis to compare the diagnostic values of different variables.

RESULTS

The overall incidence of new-onset CMVT in patients with hip fractures was 18.75% (60 of 320). Among the 60 CMVT patients, 70% (42 of 60) were diagnosed with femoral neck fractures, 28.3% (17 of 60) with intertrochanteric fractures, and 1.7% (1 of 60) with subtrochanteric fractures. No pulmonary embolism (PE) occurred. High preoperative D-dimer (OR = 1.002, 95%CI 0.97-1.03), sex (OR = 1.22, 95%CI 0.51-2.96), the caprini score (OR = 2.32, 95%CI 1.05-5.16) and the waterlow score (OR = 1.077, 95%CI 0.35-3.36) significantly increased the risk of developing postoperative new-onset CMVT.

CONCLUSIONS

CMVT has become a common clinical disease, and its harm should not be underestimated. Our study found that D-dimer, sex, the caprini score and the waterlow score were independent risk factors for postoperative CMVT. According to our clinical work, we should pay attention to identifying the risk factors of CMVT formation and targeted intervention measures to prevent new-onset CMVT.

Derivation and External Validation of a Risk Assessment Model of Venous Thromboembolism in Hospitalized Chinese Patients

AIM

To develop and validate a risk assessment model (RAM) of venous thromboembolism (VTE) in hospitalized Chinese patients.

METHODS

We reviewed data from 300 patients with VTE and 300 non-VTE patients at Beijing Shijitan Hospital. The risk factors related to VTE were analyzed, and the VTE RAM (Shijitan (SJT) version) was developed according to the weight of each risk factor. A total of 407 patients with VTE and 533 non-VTE patients were enrolled for external validation. The sensitivity, specificity, Youden index, receiver operating curve (ROC), and area under the ROC curve (AUC) were used to evaluate the performance of VTE RAM (SJT version) compared with Caprini RAM and Padua RAM.

RESULTS

The VTE RAM (SJT version) contained six risk factors (age >60 years, lower limb edema, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), central venous catheterization (CVC), VTE history, and D dimer). In the external validation group, for medical patients, the AUC value of SJT RAM (0.82 ± 0.03) is significantly higher than Caprini RAM (0.76 ± 0.04; P < 0.05), SJT RAM has a higher sensitivity, specificity, and Youden index than Caprini RAM (P < 0.05), which means that the SJT RAM has a much better predictive value than Caprini RAM. While SJT RAM and Padua RAM have the similar predictive value for medical patients (P > 0.05). For surgical patients, the AUC value of SJT RAM (0.72 ± 0.04) is significantly higher than the value of Padua RAM (0.66 ± 0.04; P < 0.05), SJT RAM has a higher sensitivity, specificity, and Youden index than Padua RAM (P < 0.05), which shows that the VTE RAM has better predictive value than Padua RAM. While SJT RAM and Caprini RAM have the similar predictive value for surgical patients (P > 0.05).

CONCLUSION

The SJT RAM derived from general hospitalized Chinese patients will be time-saving for physicians and has a better predictive ability for patients at risk of VTE.

Systematic review of venous thromboembolism risk categories derived from Caprini score

OBJECTIVE

Hospital-acquired venous thromboembolism (VTE, including pulmonary embolism [PE] and deep vein thrombosis [DVT]) is a preventable cause of hospital death. The Caprini risk assessment model (RAM) is one of the most commonly used tools to assess VTE risk. The RAM is operationalized in clinical practice by grouping several risk scores into VTE risk categories that drive decisions on prophylaxis. A correlation between increasing Caprini scores and rising VTE risk is well-established. We assessed whether the increasing VTE risk categories assigned on the basis of recommended score ranges also correlate with increasing VTE risk.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic review of articles that used the Caprini RAM to assign VTE risk categories and that reported corresponding VTE rates. A Medline and EMBASE search retrieved 895 articles, of which 57 fulfilled inclusion criteria.

RESULTS

Forty-eight (84%) of the articles were cohort studies, 7 (12%) were case-control studies, and 2 (4%) were cross-sectional studies. The populations varied from postsurgical to medical patients. There was variability in the number of VTE risk categories assigned by individual studies (6 used 5 risk categories, 37 used 4, 11 used 3, and 3 used 2), and in the cutoff scores defining the risk categories (scores from 0 alone to 0-10 for the low-risk category; from ≥5 to ≥10 for high risk). The VTE rates reported for similar risk categories also varied across studies (0%-12.3% in the low-risk category; 0%-40% for high risk). The Caprini RAM is designed to assess composite VTE risk; however, two studies reported PE or DVT rates alone, and many of the other studies did not specify the types of DVTs analyzed. The Caprini RAM predicts VTE at 30 days after assessment; however, only 17 studies measured outcomes at 30 days; the remaining studies had either shorter or longer follow-ups (0-180 days).

CONCLUSIONS

The usefulness of the Caprini RAM is limited by heterogeneity in its implementation across centers. The score-derived VTE risk categorization has significant variability in the number of risk categories being used, the cutpoints used to define the risk categories, the outcome being measured, and the follow-up duration. This factor leads to similar risk categories being associated with different VTE rates, which impacts the clinical and research implications of the results. To enhance generalizability, there is a need for studies that validate the RAM in a broad population of medical and surgical patients, identify standardized risk categories, define risk of DVT and PE as distinct end points, and measure outcomes at standardized follow-up time points.

Effect of Nursing Outcome-Oriented Intervention on Airway Management in Elderly Long-Term Bedridden Patients

Objective

This study intended to explore the nursing outcome-oriented intervention's effect on airway management in elderly long-term bedridden patients.

Methods

A total of 120 cases of elderly long-term bedridden patients admitted to our hospital from May 2018 to June 2020 were enrolled and randomly divided into the observation group (n = 60) and control group (n = 60). The control group received the routine nursing intervention, while the observation group received the nursing outcome-oriented intervention. Forced expiratory volume (FEV1), forced vital capacity (FVC), and maximal voluntary ventilation (MVV) in the first second were compared between the two groups before and after the intervention. The pulmonary infection of the two groups was observed. Total protein, hemoglobin, albumin, and cholesterol levels were compared between the two groups. Hamilton Anxiety Scale (HAMA) and Hamilton Depression Scale (HAMD) were used to evaluate the two groups' psychological status before and after the intervention. The Generic Quality of Life Inventory-74 (GQOLI-74) assessed the two groups' quality of life.

Results

After the intervention, the levels of FEV1, FVC, and MVV; total protein, hemoglobin, albumin, and cholesterol; and scores of physical function, psychological function, social function, and material life function in the observation group were higher than those in the control group. Pulmonary infection, secondary infection, the infection rate is more than 3%, HAMA, and HAMD scores, and the incidence of pressure ulcers, aspiration, constipation, and the falling bed was lower than those in the control group, with statistical significance (all P < 0.05).

Conclusion

Nursing outcome-oriented intervention can effectively improve lung function, pulmonary infection, nutritional status, negative mood, and quality of life of long-term bedridden elderly patients.

A clinical study of peripherally inserted central catheter-related venous thromboembolism in patients with hematological malignancies

This study aimed to explore the risk factors of peripherally inserted central catheter (PICC)-related venous thromboembolism (CRT) in patients with hematological malignancies and the predictive ability of the thrombotic risk assessment models (RAMs). The clinical data of the 117 eligible patients with hematological neoplasms at Mianyang Central Hospital with PICC from May 2018 to May 2020 were analyzed in this retrospective study. Thrombosis risk scores were calculated in patients with image-confirmed PICC-related thromboembolism. CRT occurred in 19 cases. Compared to the CRT-free group, the CRT group was older and showed higher body mass index (BMI), leukocyte count level, and the prevalence of diabetes mellitus. Multivariable logistic regression analysis showed that BMI (P = 0.03) was a significant risk factor for CRT. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the Caprini scale (P = 0.01) was higher than that of the modified Wells scale (P = 0.94), the revised Geneva scale (P = 0.83), Padua scale (P = 0.59), and Michigan scale (P = 0.80). The sensitivity and specificity for the Caprini scale, Padua scale, modified Wells scale, the revised Geneva scale, and Michigan risk score were 63.3%/73.7%, 100%/0.00%, 95.9%/5.3%, 31.6%/73.7%, and 1.0%/99.0%, respectively. Caprini RAM had a better predictive ability for CRT in patients with hematological malignancies. Michigan risk score may not be better than Caprini RAM in this population.

Venous thromboembolism risk assessment of surgical patients in Southwest China using real-world data: establishment and evaluation of an improved venous thromboembolism risk model

Background

Venous thromboembolism (VTE) risk assessment in surgical patients is important for the appropriate diagnosis and treatment of patients. The commonly used Caprini model is limited by its inadequate ability to discriminate between risk stratums on the surgical population in southwest China and lengthy risk factors. The purpose of this study was to establish an improved VTE risk assessment model that is accurate and simple.

Methods

This study is based on the clinical data from 81,505 surgical patients hospitalized in the Southwest Hospital of China between January 1, 2019 and June 18, 2021. Among the population, 559 patients developed VTE. An improved VTE risk assessment model, SW-model, was established through Logistic Regression, with comparisons to both Caprini and Random Forest.

Results

The SW-model incorporated eight risk factors. The area under the curve (AUC) of SW-model (0.807 [0.758, 0.853], 0.804 [0.765, 0.840]), are significantly superior (p = 0.001 and p = 0.044) to those of the Caprini (0.705 [0.652, 0.757], 0.758 [0.719, 0795]) on two test sets, but inferior (p < 0.001 and p = 0.002) to Random Forest (0.854 [0.814, 0.890], 0.839 [0.806, 0.868]). In decision curve analysis, within threshold range from 0.015 to 0.04, the DCA curves of the SW-model are superior to Caprini and two default strategies.

Conclusions

The SW-model demonstrated a higher discriminative capability to distinguish VTE positive in surgical patients compared with the Caprini model. Compared to Random Forest, Logistic Regression based SW-model provided interpretability which is essential in guarantee the procedure of risk assessment transparent to clinicians.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12911-022-01795-9.

Validation of risk assessment models predicting venous thromboembolism in inpatients with AECOPD: a multicenter cohort study

BACKGROUND

As inpatients with acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD) are at increased risk for venous thromboembolism (VTE), identifying high-risk patients requiring thromboprophylaxis is critical to reduce the mortality and morbidity associated with VTE. This study aimed to evaluate and compare the validities of the Padua Prediction Score and Caprini risk assessment model (RAM) in predicting the risk of VTE in inpatients with AECOPD.

METHODS

The inpatients with AECOPD were prospectively enrolled from seven medical centers of China between September 2017 and January 2020. Caprini and Padua scores were calculated on admission, and the incidence of 3-month VTE was investigated.

RESULTS

Among the 3277 eligible patients with AECOPD, 128 patients (3.9%) developed VTE within 3 months after admission. The distribution of the study population by the Caprini risk level was as follows: high, 53.6%; moderate, 43.0%; and low, 3.5%. The incidence of VTE increased by risk level as high, 6.1%; moderate, 1.5%; and low, 0%. According to the Padua RAM, only 10.9% of the study population was classified as high risk and 89.1% as low risk, with the corresponding incidence of VTE 7.9% and 3.4%, respectively. The Caprini RAM had higher area under curve (AUC) compared with the Padua RAM (0.713  0.021 vs 0.644 ± 0.023, P = 0.029).

CONCLUSION

The Caprini RAM was superior to the Padua RAM in predicting the risk of VTE in inpatients with AECOPD and might better guide thromboprophylaxis in these patients.

Risk assessment models for venous thromboembolism in hospitalised adult patients: a systematic review

INTRODUCTION

Hospital-acquired thrombosis accounts for a large proportion of all venous thromboembolism (VTE), with significant morbidity and mortality. This subset of VTE can be reduced through accurate risk assessment and tailored pharmacological thromboprophylaxis. This systematic review aimed to determine the comparative accuracy of risk assessment models (RAMs) for predicting VTE in patients admitted to hospital.

METHODS

A systematic search was performed across five electronic databases (including MEDLINE, EMBASE and the Cochrane Library) from inception to February 2021. All primary validation studies were eligible if they examined the accuracy of a multivariable RAM (or scoring system) for predicting the risk of developing VTE in hospitalised inpatients. Two or more reviewers independently undertook study selection, data extraction and risk of bias assessments using the PROBAST (Prediction model Risk Of Bias ASsessment Tool) tool. We used narrative synthesis to summarise the findings.

RESULTS

Among 6355 records, we included 51 studies, comprising 24 unique validated RAMs. The majority of studies included hospital inpatients who required medical care (21 studies), were undergoing surgery (15 studies) or receiving care for trauma (4 studies). The most widely evaluated RAMs were the Caprini RAM (22 studies), Padua prediction score (16 studies), IMPROVE models (8 studies), the Geneva risk score (4 studies) and the Kucher score (4 studies). C-statistics varied markedly between studies and between models, with no one RAM performing obviously better than other models. Across all models, C-statistics were often weak (<0.7), sometimes good (0.7-0.8) and a few were excellent (>0.8). Similarly, estimates for sensitivity and specificity were highly variable. Sensitivity estimates ranged from 12.0% to 100% and specificity estimates ranged from 7.2% to 100%.

CONCLUSION

Available data suggest that RAMs have generally weak predictive accuracy for VTE. There is insufficient evidence and too much heterogeneity to recommend the use of any particular RAM.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

Steve Goodacre, Abdullah Pandor, Katie Sworn, Daniel Horner, Mark Clowes. A systematic review of venous thromboembolism RAMs for hospital inpatients. PROSPERO 2020 CRD42020165778. Available from https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/display_record.php?RecordID=165778https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/display_record.php?RecordID=165778.

Assessing the thrombosis risk of peripherally inserted central catheters in cancer patients using Caprini risk assessment model: a prospective cohort study

PURPOSE

There was no optimal risk assessment tool to stratify the risk of peripherally inserted central catheter-related venous thromboembolism (PICC-RVT) in cancer patients. We currently use the Caprini risk assessment model for thrombotic risk assessment, but no evidence exists on the effectiveness of Caprini in such patients. This study was to assess the validity of the Caprini in Chinese cancer patients with PICCs.

METHODS

We conducted a prospective study of 468 participants. Following calculating the Caprini score, color Doppler ultrasonography was performed every 7 days for 3 weeks to confirm PICC-RVT.

RESULTS

There was a correlation between PICC-RVT and the Caprini score. Compared with scores of 5, the risk was 2.089-fold greater (95% CI 1.165-3.743, P = 0.012) in patients with a score of 6 and 7, and 7.156-fold greater (95% CI 3.157-16.217, P < 0.001) in patients with scores ≥8. The area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve was 0.636 (95% CI 0.590-0.680; P < 0.001). 6 was the best cutoff point for Caprini, with a sensitivity of 0.76 and a specificity of 0.44.

CONCLUSIONS

The Caprini can be used for high-risk screening of the PICC-RVT in cancer patients, and classification of the highest risk level using a score of 6 can be more clinically significant compared to 5 as recommended. The results provide evidence for the practitioner's early use of the Caprini to assess the thrombotic risk in patients with PICCs and take timely prevention measures. But pharmacological prevention should be considered seriously for its low specificity.

Thrombotic complications of COVID-19

INTRODUCTION

The novel coronavirus disease of 2019 (COVID-19) is associated with significant morbidity and mortality. The impact of thrombotic complications has been increasingly recognized as an important component of this disease.

OBJECTIVE

This narrative review summarizes the thrombotic complications associated with COVID-19 with an emphasis on information for Emergency Medicine clinicians.

DISCUSSION

Thrombotic complications from COVID-19 are believed to be due to a hyperinflammatory response caused by the virus. Several complications have been described in the literature. These include acute limb ischemia, abdominal and thoracic aortic thrombosis, mesenteric ischemia, myocardial infarction, venous thromboembolism, acute cerebrovascular accident, and disseminated intravascular coagulation.

CONCLUSION

It is important for Emergency Medicine clinicians to be aware of the thrombotic complications of COVID-19. Knowledge of these components are essential to rapidly recognize and treat to reduce morbidity and mortality in these patients.

Improving compliance of risk assessment and nonpharmacological interventions for deep venous thrombosis prevention in a respiratory ICU: a best practice implementation project

OBJECTIVES

To increase the compliance with deep venous thrombosis (DVT) nonpharmacologic prophylaxis best practice recommendations while ensuring appropriate and structured nonpharmacologic prophylaxis for patients in the respiratory ICU.

BACKGROUND

DVT is a major problem for patients, with those who are critically ill representing a high-risk population for developing the condition. Nonpharmacologic prophylaxis is considered an effective intervention. However, the application of such interventions in practice has not been optimal to date.

METHODS

The current project was conducted in a respiratory ICU of a tertiary hospital. Audit criteria were developed on the basis of an evidence summary developed by the Joanna Briggs Institute, whereby the institute's Practical Application of Clinical Evidence System program to facilitate an audit and feedback cycle was utilized as an implementation framework. Baseline and follow-up audits on nonpharmacological DVT prophylaxis were conducted for 35 patients against five evidence-based recommendations. In addition, the nurses' knowledge and attitude regarding DVT prophylaxis were investigated both prior to and postimplementation.

RESULTS

In the baseline audit, compliance with the five evidence-based audit criteria was less than 15%. After the implementation of strategies including education, person-centered care, financial and human-resource support, there was a significant improvement in all the audit criteria. In addition, improvements in the nurses' knowledge and attitude regarding DVT prophylaxis were reported. The rate of discharged patients due to a deterioration of their condition decreased from 31.4 to 5.7% in the follow-up cycle. One DVT patient occurred in the baseline data, whereas no new incidences of DVT were found in the follow-up data.

CONCLUSION

The project not only improved nurses' knowledge and attitude regarding DVT prevention, but also remarkably improved the implementation of nonpharmacological DVT prophylaxis. The application of evidence-based nonpharmacological DVT prophylaxis may improve patients' outcomes in the ICU.