A Combination of Blood Pressure and Total Cholesterol Increases the Lifetime Risk of Coronary Heart Disease Mortality: EPOCH-JAPAN

Impact of medical checkup parameters on major adverse cardiovascular events in the general Japanese population

Medical checkups play a role in the identification of individuals at increased cardiovascular risk. However, the impact of each medical examination parameter on the incidence of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) has not been intensively studied. Here we assessed the predictors of MACE among parameters examined during medical checkups in the general Japanese population. A total of 13,522 individuals (mean age, 52.8 ± 12.3 years) who participated in our medical checkup program from 2008 to 2015 were followed up for a median of 1,827 days with the endpoint of MACE. MACE included cardiovascular death, non-fatal myocardial infarction, angina, decompensated heart failure, stroke, and other cardiovascular events requiring hospitalization. Possible associations between MACE and baseline clinical test parameters were investigated. During follow-up, MACE occurred in 196 participants. Participants with hypertension, diabetes mellitus, dyslipidemia, or metabolic syndrome were at increased risk of MACE on the univariate analysis. Multivariate Cox hazard analysis demonstrated that male sex, age, systolic blood pressure, and baseline B-type natriuretic peptide level were independently correlated with future MACE after the adjustment for confounders; the impact of B-type natriuretic peptide was most prominent among the investigated variables. These results suggest that B-type natriuretic peptide level obtained during a medical checkup examination is an independent and strong predictor of MACE. The inclusion of BNP as part of medical checkup parameters may improve the ability to identify individuals at increased cardiovascular risk and prevent cardiovascular disease among them.

Use of Multiple Fluid Biomarkers for Predicting the Co-occurrence of Diabetes and Hypertension Using Machine Learning Approaches

The co-existence of diabetes and hypertension can complicate and affect the management of these diseases. The early detection of these comorbidities can help in developing personalized preventive treatments and thereby, reduce the healthcare burden. The inclusion of readily available fluid biomarkers from different body fluids can be used as diagnostic tools and can facilitate in the designing of treatment strategies. In this work, an attempt has been made using multiple fluid biomarkers to differentiate diabetic from diabetic and hypertensive comorbid (DHC) condition. The fluid biomarkers are obtained from a publicly available dataset for diabetic (N=105) and DHC (N=57) conditions. The features, such as systolic blood pressure, fasting blood glucose, diastolic blood pressure, and total cholesterol are extracted and statistically analyzed. Data balancing technique namely synthetic minority oversampling technique is applied on the minority class to balance the dataset. Machine learning techniques namely, linear discriminant analysis, random forest, K-nearest neighbor, and linear support vector machine are used to perform the classification between the two groups. The results show that systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, and total cholesterol are elevated in the comorbid condition. These features also exhibit a statistical significance (p<0.001) between the two groups. This study also addresses the data imbalance issue, which is resolved by using an oversampling technique to mitigate the bias resulting from imbalanced data. The LDA classifier achieves a maximum accuracy of 61.2% in distinguishing between the two conditions. Machine learning based approaches may help in the prediction of comorbid conditions. This can act as a guideline for future studies on the progression of diseases and the identification of fluid biomarkers.

A multivariate joint model to adjust for random measurement error while handling skewness and correlation in dietary data in an epidemiologic study of mortality

PURPOSE

A substantial proportion of global deaths is attributed to unhealthy diets, which can be assessed at baseline or longitudinally. We demonstrated how to simultaneously correct for random measurement error, correlations, and skewness in the estimation of associations between dietary intake and all-cause mortality.

METHODS

We applied a multivariate joint model (MJM) that simultaneously corrected for random measurement error, skewness, and correlation among longitudinally measured intake levels of cholesterol, total fat, dietary fiber, and energy with all-cause mortality using US National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey linked to the National Death Index mortality data. We compared MJM with the mean method that assessed intake levels as the mean of a person's intake.

RESULTS

The estimates from MJM were larger than those from the mean method. For instance, the logarithm of hazard ratio for dietary fiber intake increased by 14 times (from -0.04 to -0.60) with the MJM method. This translated into a relative hazard of death of 0.55 (95% credible interval: 0.45, 0.65) with the MJM and 0.96 (95% credible interval: 0.95, 0.97) with the mean method.

CONCLUSIONS

MJM adjusts for random measurement error and flexibly addresses correlations and skewness among longitudinal measures of dietary intake when estimating their associations with death.

Association between Indoor Temperature in Winter and Serum Cholesterol: A Cross-Sectional Analysis of the Smart Wellness Housing Survey in Japan

AIM

Issuance of the WHO Housing and health guidelines has paralleled growing interest in the housing environment. Despite accumulating evidence of an association between outdoor temperature and serum cholesterol, indoor temperature has not been well investigated. This study examined the association between indoor temperature and serum cholesterol.

METHODS

We collected valid health checkup data of 2004 participants (1333 households), measured the indoor temperature for 2 weeks in winter, and divided participants according to whether they lived in a warm (average bedroom temperature ≥ 18℃), slightly cold (12-18℃) or cold house (＜12˚C). The relationship between bedroom temperature and serum cholesterol was analyzed using multivariate logistic regression models, adjusting for demographics, lifestyle habits and the season in which the health checkup was conducted, with a random effect of climate areas in Japan.

RESULTS

The sample sizes for warm, slightly cold, and cold houses were 206, 940, and 858, respectively. Compared to those in warm houses, the odds ratio of total cholesterol exceeding 220 mg/dL was 1.83 (95%CI: 1.23-2.71, p=0.003) for participants in slightly cold houses and 1.87 (95%CI: 1.25-2.80, p=0.002) in cold houses. Similarly, the odds ratio of LDL/non-HDL cholesterol exceeding the standard range was 1.49 (p=0.056)/1.67 (p=0.035) for those in slightly cold houses and 1.64 (p=0.020)/1.77 (p=0.021) in cold houses. HDL cholesterol and triglycerides were not significantly associated with bedroom temperature.

CONCLUSION

Besides lifestyle modification, improving indoor thermal environment through strategies such as installing high thermal insulation and appropriate use of heating devices may contribute to better serum cholesterol condition.

Predictors of Carotid Atherosclerosis Progression: Evidence from an Ultrasonography Laboratory

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

The purpose of this study was to investigate the role of risk factors in predicting the variation in carotid atherosclerosis at ultrasonographic follow-up and, therefore, its role in the progression of large-vessel disease.

METHODS

This retrospective population study included all the outpatients that underwent at least two carotid ultrasonographies at our laboratory from 2001 to 2017. Demographic data, vascular risk factors, and the results at follow-up were analysed to determine if correlations exist between these risk factors and variation in carotid atherosclerosis.

RESULTS

Data from 600 patients (327 males and 273 females with a mean age of 67 years) were collected. The mean follow-up period was 49 months (range: 1-195). We analysed each demographic variable and risk factor to assess its correlation with a worsening of carotid atherosclerosis; previous myocardial infarction (2.594), previous carotid surgical treatment (2.368), and hypertension (1.85) were found to have the highest odds ratios, respectively. Furthermore, the sample was divided into specific subpopulations (diabetes, hypertension, and smoking), and an association was found between age and worsening stenosis.

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS

Our results confirm the importance of carotid ultrasonographic follow-up in the monitoring and managing of large-vessel disease. Myocardial infarction, previous stroke, and previous surgical treatment were the strongest predictors of a worsening of carotid atherosclerosis. These findings suggest a strict follow-up is needed, even in the absence of significant carotid atherosclerosis at baseline.

The Effects of Capsinoids and Fermented Red Pepper Paste Supplementation on Lipid Profile: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Randomized Controlled Trials

The present systematic review and meta-analysis were conducted in order to investigate the effects of capsinoids and fermented red pepper paste (FRPP) supplementation on lipid profile. Relevant studies were identified by searches of five databases from inception to November 2021 using relevant keywords. All clinical trials investigating the effect of capsinoids and FRPP on total cholesterol (TC), triglycerides (TG), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) were included. Out of 1,203 citations, eight trials that enrolled 393 participants were included. Capsinoids and FRPP resulted in a significant reduction in TC (weighted mean differences [WMD], -9.92 mg/dL; 95% confidence interval [CI], -17.92 to -1.92; p = 0.015) but no significant changes in TG (WMD, -19.38 mg/dL; 95% CI, -39.94 to 1.18; p = 0.065), HDL-C (WMD, 0.83 mg/dL; 95% CI, -0.76 to 2.42; p = 0.305) and LDL-C (WMD, -0.59 mg/dL; 95% CI, -4.96 to 3.79; p = 0.793). Greater effects on TC were detected in trials performed on duration lasting less than twelve weeks, mean age of > 40, both sexes, and sample size of > 50. TG was reduced by using FRPP in studies conducted on mean age of > 40. HDL-C increased by using FRPP in studies conducted on duration of < 12 weeks, mean age of > 40, and sample size of ≤ 50. Overall, these data provided evidence that capsinoids and FRPP supplementation has beneficial effects on TC but not TG, HDL-C, and LDL-C.

The difference of lipid profiles between psoriasis with arthritis and psoriasis without arthritis and sex-specific downregulation of methotrexate on the apolipoprotein B/apolipoprotein A-1 ratio

BACKGROUND

Methotrexate (MTX) has a protective effect against cardiovascular diseases (CVD), but the mechanism is unclear.

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the effect of MTX on lipid profiles and the difference between psoriasis without arthritis (PsO) and psoriatic arthritis (PsA).

METHODS

In this prospective study, we recruited 288 psoriatic patients (136 PsA and 152 PsO) who completed 12 weeks of MTX treatment. Total cholesterol (TC), triglycerides (TG), lipoprotein A [LP(a)], high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), low-density lipoprotein (LDL), apolipoprotein A1 (ApoA1), and ApoB were measured.

RESULTS

Compared with sex- and age-matched healthy controls, psoriatic patients had significantly (p < 0.0001) higher levels of proatherogenic lipids and lower levels of anti-atherogenic lipids. PsA patients had a higher ApoB/ApoA1 ratio than PsO patients (p < 0.05). Stepwise regression analysis found a positive correlation between the inflammatory marker hCRP and the Psoriasis Area Severity Index (PASI), ApoB/ApoA1 ratio, BMI, and smoking. ApoB was positively associated with concomitant arthritis, diabetes, and hypertension. MTX decreased the levels of pro-atherogenic and anti-atherogenic lipids. However, a significant reduction of the ApoB/ApoA1 ratio by MTX was only observed in male patients.

CONCLUSION

PsA patients had a significantly higher percentage of concomitant disease than PsO. The decrease of MTX on CVD might be related with sex.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ChiCTR2000036192.

Prediction of Lifetime Risk of Cardiovascular Disease Deaths Stratified by Sex in the Japanese Population

Background

Lifetime risk is an informative estimate for driving lifestyle and behavioral changes especially for young adults. The impact of composite risk factors for cardiovascular disease on lifetime risk stratified by sex has not been investigated in the Japanese population, which has a much lower mortality of coronary heart disease compared with the Western population. We aimed to estimate lifetime risk of death from cardiovascular disease attributable to traditional risk factors.

Methods and Results

We analyzed pooled individual data from the Evidence for Cardiovascular Prevention from Observational Cohorts in a Japanese cohort study. A modified Kaplan–Meier approach was used to estimate the remaining lifetime risk of cardiovascular death. In total, 41 002 Japanese men and women with 537 126 person‐years of follow‐up were included. The lifetime risk at the index‐age of 45 years for those with optimal risk factors (total cholesterol <4.65 mmol/L, systolic blood pressure <120 mm Hg, diastolic blood pressure <80 mm Hg, absence of diabetes, and absence of smoking habit) was lower compared with the highest risk profile of ≥2 risk factors (6.8% [95% CI, 0%–11.9%] versus 19.4% [16.7%–21.4%] for men and 6.9% [1.2%–11.5%] versus 15.4% [12.6%–18.1%] for women).

Conclusions

The magnitude and the number of risk factors were progressively associated with increased lifetime risk even in individuals in early adulthood who tend to have low short‐term risk. The degree of established cardiovascular risk factors can be converted into lifetime risk. Our findings may be useful for risk communication in the early detection of future cardiovascular disease risk.

Impact of Major Cardiovascular Risk Factors on the Incidence of Cardiovascular Disease among Overweight and Non-Overweight Individuals: The Circulatory Risk in Communities Study (CIRCS)

Aim: We aimed to examine the impact of high-risk levels of cardiovascular risk factors on the incidence of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in overweight and non-overweight individuals without treatment for the risk factors.

Methods: A total of 8,051 individuals aged 40–74 years without a history of CVD and/or without treatment for hypertension, diabetes, hyperlipidemia, and kidney disease at baseline in 1995–2000 were followed up for a median of 14.1 years. We classified the participants into three risk categories (low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups) on the basis of individual risk factors (blood pressure, serum glucose, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol [LDL-C], and urinary protein) according to the guidelines of Japanese clinical societies. The high-risk group (systolic blood pressure ≥ 160 mmHg or diastolic blood pressure ≥ 100 mmHg, fasting serum glucose ≥ 130 mg/dL or non-fasting serum glucose ≥ 180 mg/dL, LDL-C ≥ 180 mg/dL, proteinuria ≥ 2+) needed to refer to physicians or start treatment immediately. Overweight was defined as a body mass index of ≥ 25 kg/m ² .

Results: Compared with those in the non-overweight low-risk group, the hazard ratios (HRs) (95% confidence intervals, population-attributable fractions [PAFs]) of CVD in the high-risk categories of blood pressure were 2.0 (1.4–2.9, 7.0%) in the non-overweight high-risk group and 2.9 (1.9–4.3, 6.8%) in the overweight high-risk group. The corresponding HRs (95% confidence intervals, PAFs) of serum glucose were 2.0 (1.2–3.4, 2.5%) and 2.2 (1.1–4.3, 1.5%) in the non-overweight and overweight high-risk groups, respectively. Such associations were not observed for the high-risk group of LDL-C and proteinuria.

Conclusions: The present long-term observational study implies that targeting persons with non-treated severe hypertension and diabetes is prioritized to prevent CVD regardless of overweight status.