Setting priorities for development of emerging interventions against childhood pneumonia, meningitis and influenza

Global research priorities to accelerate programming to improve early childhood development in the sustainable development era: a CHNRI exercise

Background

Approximately 250 million children under the age of five in low and middle-income countries (LMICs) will not achieve their developmental potential due to poverty and stunting alone. Investments in programming to improve early childhood development (ECD) have the potential to disrupt the cycle of poverty and therefore should be prioritised. Support for ECD has increased in recent years. Nevertheless, donors and policies continue to neglect ECD, in part from lack of evidence to guide policy makers and donors about where they should focus policies and programmes. Identification and investment in research is needed to overcome these constraints and in order to achieve high quality implementation of programmes to improve ECD.

Methods

The Child Health and Nutrition Research Initiative (CHNRI) priority setting methodology was applied in order to assess research priorities for improving ECD. A group of 348 global and local experts in ECD-related research were identified and invited to generate research questions. This resulted in 406 research questions which were categorised and refined by study investigators into 54 research questions across six thematic goals which were evaluated using five criteria: answerability, effectiveness, feasibility, impact, and effect on equity. Research options were ranked by their final research priority score multiplied by 100.

Results

The top three research priority options from the LMIC experts came from the third thematic goal of improving the impact of interventions, whereas the top three research priority options from high-income country experts came from different goals: improving the integration of interventions, increasing the understanding of health economics and social protection strategies, and improving the impact of interventions.

Conclusion

The results of this process highlight that priorities for future research should focus on the need for services and support to parents to provide nurturing care, and the training of health workers and non-specialists in implementation of interventions to improve ECD. Three of the six thematic goals of the present priority setting centred on interventions (ie, improving impact, implementation of interventions and improving the integration of interventions). In order to achieve higher coverage through sustainable interventions to improve ECD with equitable reach, interventions should be integrated and not be sector driven.

Setting an implementation research agenda for Canadian investments in global maternal, newborn, child and adolescent health: a research prioritization exercise

BACKGROUND

Improving global maternal, newborn, child and adolescent health (MNCAH) is a top development priority in Canada, as shown by the $6.35 billion in pledges toward the Muskoka Initiative since 2010. To guide Canadian research investments, we aimed to systematically identify a set of implementation research priorities for MNCAH in low- and middle-income countries.

METHODS

We adapted the Child Health and Nutrition Research Initiative method. We scanned the Child Health and Nutrition Research Initiative literature and extracted research questions pertaining to delivery of interventions, inviting Canadian experts on MNCAH to generate additional questions. The experts scored a combined list of 97 questions against 5 criteria: answerability, feasibility, deliverability, impact and effect on equity. These questions were ranked using a research priority score, and the average expert agreement score was calculated for each question.

RESULTS

The overall research priority score ranged from 40.14 to 89.25, with a median of 71.84. The average expert agreement scores ranged from 0.51 to 0.82, with a median of 0.64. Highly-ranked research questions varied across the life course and focused on improving detection and care-seeking for childhood illnesses, overcoming barriers to intervention uptake and delivery, effectively implementing human resources and mobile technology, and increasing coverage among at-risk populations. Children were the most represented target population and most questions pertained to interventions delivered at the household or community level.

INTERPRETATION

Investing in implementation research is critical to achieving the Sustainable Development Goal of ensuring health and well-being for all. The proposed research agenda is expected to drive action and Canadian research investments to improve MNCAH.

Maternal and perinatal health research priorities beyond 2015: an international survey and prioritization exercise

Background

Maternal mortality has declined by nearly half since 1990, but over a quarter million women still die every year of causes related to pregnancy and childbirth. Maternal-health related targets are falling short of the 2015 Millennium Development Goals and a post-2015 Development Agenda is emerging. In connection with this, setting global research priorities for the next decade is now required.

Methods

We adapted the methods of the Child Health and Nutrition Research Initiative (CHNRI) to identify and set global research priorities for maternal and perinatal health for the period 2015 to 2025. Priority research questions were received from various international stakeholders constituting a large reference group, and consolidated into a final list of research questions by a technical working group. Questions on this list were then scored by the reference working group according to five independent and equally weighted criteria. Normalized research priority scores (NRPS) were calculated, and research priority questions were ranked accordingly.

Results

A list of 190 priority research questions for improving maternal and perinatal health was scored by 140 stakeholders. Most priority research questions (89%) were concerned with the evaluation of implementation and delivery of existing interventions, with research subthemes frequently concerned with training and/or awareness interventions (11%), and access to interventions and/or services (14%). Twenty-one questions (11%) involved the discovery of new interventions or technologies.

Conclusions

Key research priorities in maternal and perinatal health were identified. The resulting ranked list of research questions provides a valuable resource for health research investors, researchers and other stakeholders. We are hopeful that this exercise will inform the post-2015 Development Agenda and assist donors, research-policy decision makers and researchers to invest in research that will ultimately make the most significant difference in the lives of mothers and babies.

Estimating global and regional morbidity from acute bacterial meningitis in children: assessment of the evidence

AIM

To estimate global morbidity from acute bacterial meningitis in children.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic review of the PubMed and Scopus databases to identify both community-based and hospital registry-based studies that could be useful in estimation of the global morbidity from bacterial meningitis in children. We were primarily interested in the availability and quality of the information on incidence rates and case-fatality rates. We assessed the impact of the year of study, study design, study setting, the duration of study, and sample size on reported incidence values, and also any association between incidence and case-fatality rate. We also categorized the studies by 6 World Health Organization regions and analyzed the plausibility of estimates derived from the current evidence using median and inter-quartile range of the available reports in each region.

RESULTS

We found 71 studies that met the inclusion criteria. The only two significant associations between the reported incidence and studied covariates were the negative correlation between the incidence and sample size (P<0.001) and positive correlation between incidence and case-fatality rate (P<0.001). The median incidence per 100000 child-years was highest in the African region - 143.6 (interquartile range [IQR] 115.6-174.6), followed by Western Pacific region with 42.9 (12.4-83.4), the Eastern Mediterranean region with 34.3 (9.9-42.0), South East Asia with 26.8 (21.0-60.3), Europe with 20.8 (16.2-29.7), and American region with 16.6 (10.3-33.7). The median case-fatality rate was also highest in the African region (31.3%). Globally, the median incidence for all 71 studies was 34.0 (16.0-88.0) per 100000 child-years, with a median case-fatality rate of 14.4% (5.3%-26.2%).

CONCLUSIONS

Our study showed that there was now sufficient evidence to generate improved and internally consistent estimates of the global burden of acute bacterial meningitis in children. Although some of our region-specific estimates are very uncertain due to scarcity of data from the corresponding regions, the estimates of morbidity and case-fatality from childhood bacterial meningitis derived from this study are consistent with mortality estimates derived from multi-cause mortality studies. Both lines of evidence imply that bacterial meningitis is a cause of 2% of all child deaths.

An evaluation of the emerging vaccines against influenza in children

BACKGROUND

Influenza is an under-appreciated cause of acute lower respiratory infections (ALRI) in children. It is estimated to cause approximately 20 million new episodes of ALRI in children annually, 97% of these occurring in developing countries. It is also estimated to result in 28000 to 112000 deaths annually in young children. Apart from hospitalisations and deaths, influenza has significant economic consequences. The current egg-based inactivated influenza vaccines have several limitations: annual vaccination, high production costs, and cannot respond adequately to meet the demand during pandemics.

METHODS

We used a modified CHNRI methodology for setting priorities in health research investments. This was done in two stages. In Stage I, we systematically reviewed the literature related to emerging cross-protective vaccines against influenza relevant to several criteria of interest: answerability; cost of development, production and implementation; efficacy and effectiveness; deliverability, affordability and sustainability; maximum potential impact on disease burden reduction; acceptability to the end users and health workers; and effect on equity. In Stage II, we conducted an expert opinion exercise by inviting 20 experts (leading basic scientists, international public health researchers, international policy makers and representatives of pharmaceutical companies). They answered questions from the CHNRI framework and their "collective optimism" towards each criterion was documented on a scale from 0 to 100%.

RESULTS

The experts expressed very high level of optimism for deliverability, impact on equity, and acceptability to health workers and end users. However, they expressed concerns over the criteria of answerability, low development cost, low product cost, low implementation cost, affordability and, to a lesser extent sustainability. In addition they felt that the vaccine would have higher efficacy and impact on disease burden reduction on overall influenza-associated disease rather than specifically influenza-associated pneumonia.

CONCLUSION

Although the landscape of emerging influenza vaccines shows several promising candidates, it is unlikely that the advancements in the newer vaccine technologies will be able to progress through to large scale production in the near future. The combined effects of continued investments in researching new vaccines and improvements of available vaccines will hopefully shorten the time needed to the development of an effective seasonal and pandemic influenza vaccine suitable for large scale production.

Effectiveness of seasonal influenza vaccines in children -- a systematic review and meta-analysis

Aim

To assess the efficacy and effectiveness of seasonal influenza vaccines in healthy children up to the age of 18 years.

Methods

MedLine, EMBASE, CENTRAL, CINAHL, WHOLIS, LILACS, and Global Health were searched for randomized controlled trials and cohort and case-control studies investigating the efficacy or effectiveness of influenza vaccines in healthy children up to the age of 18 years. The studies were assessed for their quality and data on the outcomes of influenza-like illness, laboratory-confirmed influenza, and hospitalizations were extracted. Seven meta-analyses were performed for different vaccines and different study outcomes.

Results

Vaccine efficacy for live vaccines, using random effects model, was as follows: (i) for similar antigen, using per-protocol analysis: 83.4% (78.3%-88.8%); (ii) for similar antigen, using intention to treat analysis: 82.5 (76.7%-88.6%); (iii) for any antigen, using per protocol analysis: 76.4% (68.7%-85.0%); (iv) for any antigen, using intention to treat analysis: 76.7% (68.8%-85.6%). Vaccine efficacy for inactivated vaccines, for similar antigen, using random effects model, was 67.3% (58.2%-77.9%). Vaccine effectiveness against influenza-like illness for live vaccines, using random effects model, was 31.4% (24.8%-39.6%) and using fixed-effect model 44.3% (42.6%-45.9%). Vaccine effectiveness against influenza-like illness for inactivated vaccines, using random effects model, was 32.5% (20.0%-52.9%) and using fixed-effect model 42.6% (38.3%-47.5%).

Conclusions

Influenza vaccines showed high efficacy in children, particularly live vaccines. Effectiveness was lower and the data on hospitalizations were very limited.

Reducing mortality from childhood pneumonia and diarrhoea: The leading priority is also the greatest opportunity

Pneumonia and diarrhoea have been the leading causes of global child mortality for many decades. The work of Child Health Epidemiology Reference Group (CHERG) has been pivotal in raising awareness that the UN's Millennium Development Goal 4 cannot be achieved without increased focus on preventing and treating the two diseases in low– and middle–income countries. Global Action Plan for Pneumonia (GAPP) and Diarrhoea Global Action Plan (DGAP) groups recently concluded that addressing childhood pneumonia and diarrhoea is not only the leading priority but also the greatest opportunity in global health today: scaling up of existing highly cost–effective interventions could prevent 95% of diarrhoea deaths and 67% of pneumonia deaths in children younger than 5 years by the year 2025. The cost of such effort was estimated at about US$ 6.7 billion.

Global burden of childhood pneumonia and diarrhoea

Diarrhoea and pneumonia are the leading infectious causes of childhood morbidity and mortality. We comprehensively reviewed the epidemiology of childhood diarrhoea and pneumonia in 2010-11 to inform the planning of integrated control programmes for both illnesses. We estimated that, in 2010, there were 1·731 billion episodes of diarrhoea (36 million of which progressed to severe episodes) and 120 million episodes of pneumonia (14 million of which progressed to severe episodes) in children younger than 5 years. We estimated that, in 2011, 700,000 episodes of diarrhoea and 1·3 million of pneumonia led to death. A high proportion of deaths occurs in the first 2 years of life in both diseases--72% for diarrhoea and 81% for pneumonia. The epidemiology of childhood diarrhoea and that of pneumonia overlap, which might be partly because of shared risk factors, such as undernutrition, suboptimum breastfeeding, and zinc deficiency. Rotavirus is the most common cause of vaccine-preventable severe diarrhoea (associated with 28% of cases), and Streptococcus pneumoniae (18·3%) of vaccine-preventable severe pneumonia. Morbidity and mortality from childhood pneumonia and diarrhoea are falling, but action is needed globally and at country level to accelerate the reduction.

Viral etiology of hospitalized acute lower respiratory infections in children under 5 years of age -- a systematic review and meta-analysis

AIM

To estimate the proportional contribution of influenza viruses (IV), parainfluenza viruses (PIV), adenoviruses (AV), and coronaviruses (CV) to the burden of severe acute lower respiratory infections (ALRI).

METHODS

The review of the literature followed PRISMA guidelines. We included studies of hospitalized children aged 0-4 years with confirmed ALRI published between 1995 and 2011. A total of 51 studies were included in the final review, comprising 56091 hospitalized ALRI episodes.

RESULTS

IV was detected in 3.0% (2.2%-4.0%) of all hospitalized ALRI cases, PIV in 2.7% (1.9%-3.7%), and AV in 5.8% (3.4%-9.1%). CV are technically difficult to culture, and they were detected in 4.8% of all hospitalized ALRI patients in one study. When respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and less common viruses were included, at least one virus was detected in 50.4% (40.0%-60.7%) of all hospitalized severe ALRI episodes. Moreover, 21.9% (17.7%-26.4%) of these viral ALRI were mixed, including more than one viral pathogen. Among all severe ALRI with confirmed viral etiology, IV accounted for 7.0% (5.5%-8.7%), PIV for 5.8% (4.1%-7.7%), and AV for 8.8% (5.3%-13.0%). CV was found in 10.6% of virus-positive pneumonia patients in one study.

CONCLUSIONS

This article provides the most comprehensive analysis of the contribution of four viral causes to severe ALRI to date. Our results can be used in further cost-effectiveness analyses of vaccine development and implementation for a number of respiratory viruses.

Balancing investments in existing and emerging approaches to address global health priorities

One of the common themes in contemporary global health is finding an optimal balance between investments in existing and emerging approaches to fight global health priorities. Existing interventions have been proven to be effective, but they usually have limitations. Emerging interventions could potentially bring greater gains at a lower cost, but health gains are usually uncertain and take much more time to achieve. There are no simple solutions on how to balance funding support to these two competing approaches, but some components of successful strategies are becoming increasingly apparent. Transparency over the expected return on investment, style of investment and time horizon can assist rational investment decisions.