Millions of excess cases and thousands of excess deaths of malaria occurred globally in 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic

Landscape and Socioeconomic Factors Determine Malaria Incidence in Tropical Forest Countries

Deforestation, landscape dynamics, and socioeconomic factors within the tropical Americas, Africa, and Asia may have different impacts on malaria incidence. To evaluate how these drivers affect malaria incidence at the global and regional scale, we collected malaria incidence rates from 2000 to 2019 from 67 tropical countries, along with forest loss, land use change types, and socioeconomic elements. LASSO regression, linear mixed effect modeling, and k-fold cross validation were used to create and evaluate the models. Regionality plays a role in the significance of varying risk factors. The Tropical Americas model had the highest coefficient of determination (marginal R2 = 0.369), while the Africa model showed the highest predictive accuracy with only a 17.4% error rate. Strong associations between tree cover loss (β = -4037.73, p < 0.001) and percentage forest area (β = 5373.18, p = 0.012) in Africa, and percent of key biodiversity areas under protection (β = 496.71, p < 0.001; β = 1679.20, p < 0.001) in the tropical Americas and Asia with malaria incidence indicates that malaria risk should be considered during conservation policy development, and recommends that individual approaches to policy and investment be considered when implementing malaria interventions on different spatial scales.

Prevalence of non-falciparum malaria infections among asymptomatic individuals in four regions of Mainland Tanzania

BACKGROUND

Recent studies point to the need to incorporate the detection of non-falciparum species into malaria surveillance activities in sub-Saharan Africa, where 95% of the world's malaria cases occur. Although malaria caused by infection with Plasmodium falciparum is typically more severe than malaria caused by the non-falciparum Plasmodium species P. malariae, P. ovale spp. and P. vivax, the latter may be more challenging to diagnose, treat, control and ultimately eliminate. The prevalence of non-falciparum species throughout sub-Saharan Africa is poorly defined. Tanzania has geographical heterogeneity in transmission levels but an overall high malaria burden.

METHODS

To estimate the prevalence of malaria species in Mainland Tanzania, we randomly selected 1428 samples from 6005 asymptomatic isolates collected in previous cross-sectional community surveys across four regions and analyzed these by quantitative PCR to detect and identify the Plasmodium species.

RESULTS

Plasmodium falciparum was the most prevalent species in all samples, with P. malariae and P. ovale spp. detected at a lower prevalence (< 5%) in all four regions; P. vivax was not detected in any sample.

CONCLUSIONS

The results of this study indicate that malaria elimination efforts in Tanzania will need to account for and enhance surveillance of these non-falciparum species.

Association of temperature and precipitation with malaria incidence in 57 countries and territories from 2000 to 2019: A worldwide observational study

Background

The transmission of malaria is known to be affected by climatic factors. However, existing studies on the impact of temperature and precipitation on malaria incidence offer no clear-cut conclusions, and there is a lack of research on a global scale. We aimed to estimate the association of temperature and precipitation with malaria incidence globally from 2000 to 2019.

Methods

We used meteorological data from the National Centers for Environmental Information and malaria incidence data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 to calculate effect sizes through quasi-Poisson generalised linear models while controlling for confounders.

Results

231.4 million malaria cases occurred worldwide in 2019. National annual average temperature and precipitation were associated with malaria incidence, with an increase in the age-standardised incidence rate (ASIR) of 2.01% (95% confidence interval (CI) = 2.00, 2.02) and 6.04% (95% CI = 6.00, 6.09) following one unit increase of national annual average temperature and precipitation. In subgroup analysis, we found that malaria incidence in Asian countries was most affected by temperature, while the incidence in African countries was most affected by precipitation (P < 0.05). Stratified by age, children under five were most affected by both temperature and precipitation (P < 0.05). We additionally found that the impact of the national annual average temperature on malaria incidence increased over time (P < 0.05).

Conclusions

We advocate for a comprehensive approach to malaria prevention, focussed on addressing the impact of climate factors through international collaboration, adaptive measures, and targeted interventions for vulnerable populations.

Malaria species prevalence among asymptomatic individuals in four regions of Mainland Tanzania

Recent studies point to the need to incorporate non-falciparum species detection into malaria surveillance activities in sub-Saharan Africa, where 95% of malaria cases occur. Although Plasmodium falciparum infection is typically more severe, diagnosis, treatment, and control for P. malariae, P. ovale spp., and P. vivax may be more challenging. The prevalence of these species throughout sub-Saharan Africa is poorly defined. Tanzania has geographically heterogeneous transmission levels but an overall high malaria burden. In order to estimate the prevalence of malaria species in Mainland Tanzania, 1,428 samples were randomly selected from 6,005 asymptomatic isolates collected in cross-sectional community surveys across four regions and analyzed via qPCR to detect each Plasmodium species. P. falciparum was most prevalent, with P. malariae and P. ovale spp. detected at lower prevalence (<5%) in all four regions. P. vivax was not detected. Malaria elimination efforts in Tanzania will need to account for these non-falciparum species.

Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Malaria Control in Africa: A Preliminary Analysis

Malaria remains a significant public health concern in Africa, and the emerging coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic may have negatively impacted malaria control. Here, we conducted a descriptive epidemiological analysis of malaria globally, and preliminarily explored the impact of COVID-19 on the malaria elimination program in regions of Africa (AFR). The present analysis found that there was a vast heterogeneity of incidence of deaths caused by malaria globally in different continents, and the highest malaria burden was observed in AFR. In 2020, there was an obviously increasing trend in the malaria epidemic in AFR, while the other four continents exhibited stable and declining patterns. Historically, malaria has been largely concentrated in high-malaria-burden regions, such as West Africa, and there has been an obvious increasing trend in Nigeria. These data suggest that dynamic changes in the malaria epidemic situation worldwide have primarily originated from AFR, and West Africa has played an important role in the global malaria increase in recent years. Under the coercion of COVID-19, multiple factors have co-driven the increase in malaria in AFR, including insufficient financial investments, a high native malaria burden, weak surveillance systems, limited medical resources, and low socioeconomic development levels. In addition, the shift of medical resources (e.g., health workers and personal protective equipment (PPE), the manufacturing of diagnostic reagents, and drugs) from malaria control to emergency COVID-19 response in the pandemic's early stage caused disruptions, reductions, and delays in pillar malaria control measures, leading to a significant negative impact on malaria control. In particular, a funding shortfall at both the international and domestic levels led to a "significant threat," resulting in vast gaps in access to proven malaria control tools. Although there has been a declining trend in malaria control over time due to COVID-19, the effect still cannot be ignored. Hence, we recommend the implementation of medical and technical resource assistance as a priority strategy to support Africa (West Africa) in order to curb further transmission.