Developing a predictive risk model for first-line antiretroviral therapy failure in South Africa

Clinical and Immunological Profiles of HIV/AIDS Patients With First-Line Antiretroviral Treatment Failure Attending a Tertiary Care Hospital

Objectives Highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) has decreased morbidity and mortality among HIV/AIDS-infected patients; however, many patients experience treatment failure. The present study aims to evaluate HIV-infected patients' clinical and immunological profiles with first-line antiretroviral treatment (ART) failure (immunological and clinical) at tertiary care hospitals in Northeast India and explore related treatment failure factors. Methods The hospital-based observational study was conducted among HIV-infected patients with first-line ART failure attending a tertiary care hospital from July 1, 2019, to June 30, 2020. The type of first-line ART failure was defined as a clinical, immunological, or virological failure as decided by the State AIDS Clinical Expert Panel (SACEP) meeting. Data were analyzed with Windows MS Excel (Microsoft Corporation, Redmond, Washington) and Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) version 21 (IBM Corp., Armonk, NY). Results Among the 90 HIV-infected patients experiencing first-line ART treatment failure, the majority, 38 (42.2%), were in the age group of 30-40 years, 64 (71.1%) were males, and 70 (77.8%) were of average weight. Tuberculosis was the most typical opportunistic infection, affecting 11 (12.2%) patients. Most patients (38.9%) were initially presented at clinical stage 3. Maximum failures were experienced by patients with baseline CD4 ranging from 100-200 cells/mm3, with 38 (42.2%) patients, and by patients on efavirenz (64.5%) and tenofovir-based regimens (56.6%). Failures occurred more for 24-30 months and were common among patients with adherence below 90%. Conclusion Treatment failure was more common among young male patients and those with normal body mass index (BMI). Low baseline CD4 count and poor adherence were influential in the occurrence of treatment failure. First-line ART failure was higher in tenofovir- and efavirenz-based regimens.

Determinants of therapy failure among adults on first-line antiretroviral therapy in Asmara, Eritrea: a multicenter retrospective matched case-control study

BACKGROUND

Information on treatment failure (TF) in People living with HIV in a data-poor setting is necessary to counter the epidemic of TF with first-line combined antiretroviral therapies (cART) in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). In this study, we examined the risk factors associated with TF in Asmara, Eritrea from 2001 to 2020.

METHODS

A multicenter, retrospective 1:2 matched (by age and gender) case-control study was conducted in four major hospitals in Asmara, Eritrea on adults aged ≥ 18 years who were on treatment for at least 6 months. Cases were patients who fulfills at least one of the WHO therapy failure criterion during the study period. Controls were randomly selected patients on first-line treatment and plasma viral load < 1000 copies/ml in their latest follow-up measurement. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was conducted to identify risk factors for TF. All P-values were 2-sided and the level of significance was set at P < 0.05 for all analyses.

RESULTS

Of the 1068 participants (356 cases; 712 controls), 585 (54.7%) were females. The median age at treatment initiation was 46 years [interquartile range (IQR): 39-51]. Median time to combined antiretroviral therapy (cART) failure was 37 months (IQR = 24-47). In the multivariate analysis, factors associated with increased likelihood of TF included initial nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTI) backbone (Zidovudine + Lamivudine (AZT + 3TC): adjusted odds ratio (aOR) = 2.70, 95% Confidence interval (CI): 1.65-4.41, P-value < 0.001), (Abacavir + lamivudine (ABC + 3TC): aOR = 4.73, 95%CI: 1.18-18.92, P-value = 0.028], and (Stavudine + Lamivudine (D4T + 3TC): aOR = 5.00; 95% CI: 3.03-8.20, P-value < 0.001) in comparison to Emtricitabine and Tenofovir diproxil fumarate (FTC + TDF). Additional associations included prior exposure to cART (aOR = 2.28, 95%CI: 1.35-3.86; P- value = 0.002), record of sub-optimal drug adherence (aOR = 3.08, 95%CI: 2.22-4.28; P < 0.001), ambulatory/bedridden at presentation (aOR = 1.61, 95%CI: 1.12-4.28; P-value = 0.010), presence of comorbidities (aOR = 2.37; 95%CI: 1.36-4.10, P-value = 0.002), duration of cART (< 5 years: aOR: 5.90; 95% CI: 3.95-8.73, P-value < 0.001), and use of SMX-TMP prophylaxis (aOR = 2.00, 95%CI, 1.44-2.78, P-value < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

Our findings underscore the importance of optimizing cART adherence, diversification of cART regimens, and interventions directed at enhancing early HIV diagnosis, prompt initiations of treatment, and improved patient-focused monitoring of treatment response.

Baseline and Process Factors of Anti-Retroviral Therapy That Predict Loss to Follow-up Among People Living with HIV/AIDS in China: A Retrospective Cohort Study

We explored the predictors and predictive models of loss to follow-up (LTFU) during the first year of anti-retroviral therapy (ART). LTFU was defined as the failure to visit the clinic for antiretroviral drugs for ≥ 90 days after the last missed scheduled visit. Based on the electronic medical records of 5953 patients who were HIV positive and began ART between 2016 and 2019 in China, the LTFU rate was 7.24 (95% confidence interval 6.49-7.97) per 100 person-years during the first year of ART. ART baseline factors were associated with LTFU, but were non-optimal predictors. A model including ART process-related factors such as follow-up behaviors and physical health status had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 73.4% for predicting LTFU. Therefore, the medical records of follow-up visits can be used to identify patients with a high risk of LTFU and allow interventions to be implemented proactively.

Designing a Predictive Model for Antiretroviral Regimen at the Antiretroviral Therapy Center in Chiro Hospital, Ethiopia

Nowadays, the huge amount of patient's data significantly increases with respect to the time in repositories and data mining is increasingly used as an emerging research area in medical fields for extracting useful and previously unknown insights/patterns from the repository data. These unknown patterns/hidden insights can help in discovering new knowledge hidden in these data repositories. From the observation, different ARV regimens were ordered for different patients. However, combination of these drugs causes different side effects on the patients. It has been observed that there was a lack of predictive studies and designed models available in hospitals specifically ART Centers that accurately determine or classify the patient's ARV regimen to TDF + 3TC + EFV, TDF + 3TC + NVP, AZT + 3TC + ATV/R, AZT + 3TC + LPV/R, TDF + 3TC + LVP/R, TDF + 3TC + ATV/R, 8888, and ABC + 3TC + LPV/R. In order to solve these kinds of problems, we built an accurate classifier system or model using parameters like Patient Age, Patient Encounter Day, Patient Encounter Month, Patient Encounter Year, Patient Weight, Patient CD4 Count Adult, Patient TB Screen, Patient Following WHO Stage, Patient CD4 Percent Child, Patient Regimen Specify, Patient Regimen, and so on. The general objective of this research was predictive modeling for the patient's ARV regimen class through data mining techniques so as to improve them. The study used the CRIPS-DM methodology to find and interpret patterns in repositories. A decision tree (J48 and Random Forest) algorithm was used for classification. Using all tested classifiers, the investigation of the study shows that the total accuracy was more than 60%. On the other hand, among different classifications, class H (ABC + 3TC + LPV/R) has shown the worst prediction. But it was revealed that the J48 classifier relatively produces higher classification accuracy for the D (AZT-3TC-NVP) regimen. Here, classification depended on the selected parameters, which revealed that prediction accuracy value differed among all classifiers and the selected attributes. Finally, the study concluded that data mining can be used as a significant technique to discover patient regimen based on salient affecting factors with 96.1% precision achieved. Ensemble learning resolves the categorizing models of greater anticipating performance with different learning algorithms. This model aligned with sentimental investigation to magnify the appearances of the dataset either from the social media or from primary data collection. The empirical investigation with different parameters shows the detailed improvement of their learning methods.

Socio-economic condition and lack of virological suppression among adults and adolescents receiving antiretroviral therapy in Ethiopia

Introduction

The potential impact of socio-economic condition on virological suppression during antiretroviral treatment (ART) in sub-Saharan Africa is largely unknown. In this case-control study, we compared socio-economic factors among Ethiopian ART recipients with lack of virological suppression to those with undetectable viral load (VL).

Methods

Cases (VL>1000 copies/ml) and controls (VL<150 copies/ml) aged ≥15years, with ART for >6 months and with available VL results within the last 3 months, were identified from registries at public ART clinics in Central Ethiopia. Questionnaire-based interviews on socio-economic characteristics, health condition and transmission risk behavior were conducted. Univariate variables associated with VL>1000 copies/ml (p<0.25) were added to a multivariable logistic regression model.

Results

Among 307 participants (155 cases, 152 controls), 61.2% were female, and the median age was 38 years (IQR 32–46). Median HIV-RNA load among cases was 6,904 copies/ml (IQR 2,843–26,789). Compared to controls, cases were younger (median 36 vs. 39 years; p = 0.004), more likely to be male (46.5% vs. 30.9%; p = 0.005) and had lower pre-ART CD4 cell counts (170 vs. 220 cells/μl; p = 0.009). In multivariable analysis of urban residents (94.8%), VL>1000 copies/ml was associated with lower relative wealth (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 2.98; 95% CI 1.49–5.94; p = 0.016), geographic work mobility (aOR 6.27, 95% CI 1.82–21.6; p = 0.016), younger age (aOR 0.94 [year], 95% CI 0.91–0.98; p = 0.011), longer duration of ART (aOR 1.19 [year], 95% CI 1.07–1.33; p = 0.020), and suboptimal (aOR 3.83, 95% CI 1.33–10.2; p = 0.048) or poor self-perceived wellbeing (aOR 9.75, 95% CI 2.85–33.4; p = 0.012), after correction for multiple comparisons. High-risk sexual behavior and substance use was not associated with lack of virological suppression.

Conclusion

Geographic work mobility and lower relative wealth were associated with lack of virological suppression among Ethiopian ART recipients in this predominantly urban population. These characteristics indicate increased risk of treatment failure and the need for targeted interventions for persons with these risk factors.

Determinants of immunological recovery following HAART among severely immunosuppressed patients at enrolment to care in Northern Ethiopia: a retrospective study

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to identify determinants of immunological recovery following highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) among severely immunosuppressed patients at enrolment to care in Northern Ethiopia.

METHODS

A retrospective study.

SETTING

The study was done in Tigray Region, Northern Ethiopia.

PARTICIPANTS

The study was done among severely immunosuppressed (<200 CD4 cells/mm³) individuals at initial enrolment to care and whose samples were sent for viral load determination from April 2015 to March 2019 in Tigray Health Research Institute.

MAIN OUTCOMES

The main outcome variable was immunological recovery, modelled using binary logistic regression.

RESULTS

Among the 9687 patients with severe immunosuppression at enrolment, 2746 (28.35%, 95% CI 27.45% to 29.26%) had immunological recovery following HAART for at least 6 months. Male gender (adjusted OR (AOR)=0.50, p<0.001), age 20-34 years old (AOR=0.33, p<0.001), age ≥50 years old (AOR=0.26, p<0.001), WHO clinical stage III (OR=0.68, p=0.036) and viral non-suppression (AOR=0.38, p<0.001) were strong predictors of immunological failure.

CONCLUSIONS

Immunological recovery following HAART was low among severely immunosuppressed individuals at enrolment to care. Gender, age, WHO stage III and viral non-suppression were determinants of immunological recovery. Male patients, adolescents and virally non-suppressed patients should be identified as groups at higher risk for immunological failure. Therefore, greater support and intensive counselling should be prioritised among adolescents, men and virally non-suppressed patients for better immunological recovery.

A retrospective descriptive investigation of adult patients receiving third-line antiretroviral therapy in the North West province, South Africa

Background

Greater access and prolonged exposure to ART may inevitably lead to more treatment failure and increase the need for third-line ART (TLART) in a resource-limited setting.

Objective

To describe characteristics and resistance patterns of adult patients initiated on TLART in three districts of the North West province.

Method

All-inclusive retrospective descriptive investigation. Demographics and clinical variables were recorded from adult patient health records (2002-2017) and analysed.

Results

21 Patients (17 females, 4 males) with median (IQR) age of 34 years (30.2-37.8) at HIV diagnosis and 45 years (39.5–47) at TLART initiation were included. Median duration (days) from HIV diagnosis to first-line ART initiation was 101 (37-367), treatment duration on first-line, second-line and between second-line failure and TLART initiation were: 1 269 (765–2 343); 1 512 (706-2096) and 71 (58-126) days respectively.

High-level resistance most prevalent were: nelfinavir/r (85.7%), indinavir/r (80.9%), lopinavir/r (76.2%), emtricitabine and lamivudine (95.2%), nevirapine (76.2%) and efavirenz (71.4%). Resistance to 3 major PI mutations in 95% of patients and cross resistance were documented extensively.

Conclusion

This study support the need for earlier resistance testing. It firstly reported on time duration post diagnosis on various ART regimens and secondly resistance patterns of adults before TLART was initiated in these districts.

Long-term virologic responses to antiretroviral therapy among HIV-positive patients entering adherence clubs in Khayelitsha, Cape Town, South Africa: a longitudinal analysis

INTRODUCTION

In South Africa, an estimated 4.6 million people were accessing antiretroviral therapy (ART) in 2018. As universal Test and Treat is implemented, these numbers will continue to increase. Given the need for lifelong care for millions of individuals, differentiated service delivery models for ART services such as adherence clubs (ACs) for stable patients are required. In this study, we describe long-term virologic outcomes of patients who have ever entered ACs in Khayelitsha, Cape Town.

METHODS

We included adult patients enrolled in ACs in Khayelitsha between January 2011 and December 2016 with a recorded viral load (VL) before enrolment. Risk factors for an elevated VL (VL >1000 copies/mL) and confirmed virologic failure (two consecutive VLs >1000 copies/mL one year apart) were estimated using Cox proportional hazards models. VL completeness over time was assessed.

RESULTS

Overall, 8058 patients were included in the analysis, contributing 16,047 person-years of follow-up from AC entry (median follow-up time 1.7 years, interquartile range [IQR]:0.9 to 2.9). At AC entry, 74% were female, 46% were aged between 35 and 44 years, and the median duration on ART was 4.8 years (IQR: 3.0 to 7.2). Among patients virologically suppressed at AC entry (n = 8058), 7136 (89%) had a subsequent VL test, of which 441 (6%) experienced an elevated VL (median time from AC entry 363 days, IQR: 170 to 728). Older age (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 0.64, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.46 to 0.88), more recent year of AC entry (aHR 0.76, 95% CI 0.68 to 0.84) and higher CD4 count (aHR 0.67, 95% CI 0.54 to 0.84) were protective against experiencing an elevated VL. Among patients with an elevated VL, 52% (150/291) with a repeat VL test subsequently experienced confirmed virologic failure in a median time of 112 days (IQR: 56 to 168). Frequency of VL testing was constant over time (82 to 85%), with over 90% of patients remaining virologically suppressed.

CONCLUSIONS

This study demonstrates low prevalence of elevated VLs and confirmed virologic failure among patients who entered ACs. Although ACs were expanded rapidly, most patients were well monitored and remained stable, supporting the continued rollout of this model.

Better Virological Outcomes Among People Living With Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) Initiating Early Antiretroviral Treatment (CD4 Counts ≥500 Cells/µL) in the HIV Prevention Trials Network 071 (PopART) Trial in South Africa

BACKGROUND

There have been concerns about reduced adherence and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) virological suppression (VS) among clinically well people initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART) with high pre-ART CD4 cell counts. We compared virological outcomes by pre-ART CD4 count, where universal ART initiation was provided in the HIV Prevention Trials Network 071 (PopART) trial in South Africa prior to routine national and international implementation.

METHODS

This prospective cohort study included adults initiating ART at facilities providing universal ART since January 2014. VS (<400 copies/mL), confirmed virological failure (VF) (2 consecutive viral loads >1000 copies/mL), and viral rebound were compared between participants in strata of baseline CD4 cell count.

RESULTS

The sample included 1901 participants. VS was ≥94% among participants with baseline CD4 count ≥500 cells/µL at all 6-month intervals to 30 months. The risk of an elevated viral load (≥400 copies/mL) was independently lower among participants with baseline CD4 count ≥500 cells/µL (3.3%) compared to those with CD4 count 200-499 cells/µL (9.2%) between months 18 and 30 (adjusted relative risk, 0.30 [95% confidence interval, .12-.74]; P = .010). The incidence rate of VF was 7.0, 2.0, and 0.5 per 100 person-years among participants with baseline CD4 count <200, 200-499, and ≥500 cells/µL, respectively (P < .0001). VF was independently lower among participants with baseline CD4 count ≥500 cells/µL (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 0.23; P = .045) and 3-fold higher among those with baseline CD4 count <200 cells/µL (aHR, 3.49; P < .0001).

CONCLUSIONS

Despite previous concerns, participants initiating ART with CD4 counts ≥500 cells/µL had very good virological outcomes, being better than those with CD4 counts 200-499 cells/µL.

CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION

NCT01900977.

Factors Associated With Early Virological Response in HIV-Infected Individuals Starting Antiretroviral Therapy in Brazil (2014-2015): Results From a Large HIV Surveillance Cohort

Objective:

To identify clinical, sociodemographic, and treatment-related factors associated with early virological response in HIV-infected adults starting antiretroviral treatment (ART) in Brazil in 2014–2015.

Methods:

Data from 4 information systems from the Brazilian AIDS Program were combined to create a historical cohort. Unconditional logistic regression models were used to assess the likelihood of not achieving viral load suppression (VLS), defined as having either a viral load (VL) count >200 copies per milliliter or an aids-related death recorded within 180 ± 90 days after treatment initiation.

Results:

Among 76,950 individuals, 64.8% were men; median age, CD4⁺, and VL counts were 34 years, 378 cells per micro liter, and 38,131 copies per milliliter, respectively, and 85.2% achieved VLS. In the multivariate analysis, some factors which increased the odds of non-VLS were as follows: lower CD4⁺ and higher VL counts, younger age, heterosexual or injection drug use groups (relative to men who have sex with men), lower educational level, black/brown race, higher pill burden, and higher dosing frequency. Regimens containing boosted protease inhibitors were similar to those containing nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors and superior to those containing unboosted protease inhibitors (all P values <0.001). No difference was observed between patients with CD4⁺ counts 350–499 and 500+ cells per micro liter.

Conclusions:

Our findings support the decision made in Brazil in 2013 to recommend immediate initiation of ART regardless of clinical stage or CD4⁺. Several factors were found to be associated with poorer virologic outcomes and should be addressed to maximize ART adherence and success rates.

Liver damage in patients living with HIV on antiretroviral treatment with normal baseline liver function and without HBV/HCV infection: an 11-year retrospective cohort study in Guangxi, China

OBJECTIVE

To characterise the association between duration of exposure to antiretroviral treatment (ART) and liver damage in HIV patients with an initially normal baseline liver function and without hepatitis B virus (HBV)/hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study was conducted in HIV-infected individuals with normal liver function parameters at ART initiation and without HBV/HCV infection, from 14 April 2004 to 13 April 2015 in Guigang city, Guangxi, China. The association between duration of ART and liver damage (grade II-IV liver enzyme elevation [LEE] and/or total bilirubin elevation [TBE]), was analysed. Cox regression was used to examine the factors related to liver damage.

RESULTS

Of 2119 eligible patients, 12.41% (263/2119) developed liver damage (grade II-IV LEE/TBE) and contributed 4.11/100 person-years crude incidence rate. The highest liver damage incidence was observed in patients with 6-12 months' ART (15.16/100 person-years). The incidence decreased to 5.56/100 person-years in patients with 12-18 months' ART and 3.13/100 person years in patients with 18-24 months' ART, and then maintained at a relatively low and stable level in patients with 2 years' ART or longer (average of 3.65/100 person-years). Cox regression analysis revealed that current WHO disease stage II, III or IV (compared with stage I) were the risk factors for liver damage, while baseline disease stage II, III (compared with stage I) and current regimen 3TC+AZT+NVP were the protective factors for liver damage.

CONCLUSIONS

Liver damage always exists among HIV-infected patients on ART with normal baseline liver function and without HBV/HCV infection. Nevertheless, cumulative ART duration does not increase the risk of liver damage. ART could tend to be long-term, however, monitoring and management of liver damage among patients on ART are also important in clinical therapy.

Immunological failure in HIV-infected adults from 2003 to 2015 in Southwest Ethiopia: a retrospective cohort study

OBJECTIVE

To assess the prevalence, trend and associated factors for immunological failure (IF), and the magnitude of antiretroviral therapy (ART) shift among adults infected with HIV in Southwest Ethiopia.

SETTING

A retrospective cohort study was undertaken using the data from ART clinic at Jimma University Teaching Hospital from 21 June 2003 to 15 March 2015.

PARTICIPANTS

Retrospective analysis of 4900 HIV-infected adult patient records dating from June 2003 to March 2015 was conducted.

PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURE

The primary outcome was IF defined when cluster for differentiation 4 (CD4) count falls to the baseline (or below) or persistent CD4 levels below 100 cells/mm³ after 6 months of ART treatment. The analyses included descriptive and inferential statistics.

RESULTS

546 (19.5%) adults had developed clinical failure (CF), 775 (19.7%) adults had developed IF and 1231 (25.1%) had developed either CF or IF or both. The prevalence of IF was consistently high throughout the decade. Age 25 to ≤50 years adjusted OR (AOR 1.5, 9% CI 1.2 to 2.4), being female (AOR 1.8, 95% CI 1.3 to 1.9), late presenter for HIV care (AOR 2.2, 95% CI 1.6 to 2.7) and having baseline CD4 count below 200 cells/mm³ (AOR 5.5, 95% CI 4.1 to 7.4), and having no history of HIV testing before diagnosis (AOR 0.7, 95% CI 0.5 to 0.9) were the predictors for IF. Only 29 (0.9%) adults infected with HIV were shifted to second-line ART regimen.

CONCLUSIONS

The magnitude of CF or IF or both was found significant and consistently high throughout the calendar year although ART shift was found minimal. HIV-infected adult patients with IF were early age adults, females, late presenters for HIV care, and those who had low baseline CD4 counts and history of HIV testing before diagnosis.

Long-term Outcome of Antiretroviral Treatment in Patients With and Without Concomitant Tuberculosis Receiving Health Center-Based Care-Results From a Prospective Cohort Study

Background

In order to increase treatment coverage, antiretroviral treatment (ART) is provided through primary health care in low-income high-burden countries, where tuberculosis (TB) co-infection is common. We investigated the long-term outcome of health center-based ART, with regard to concomitant TB.

Methods

ART-naïve adults were included in a prospective cohort at Ethiopian health centers and followed for up to 4 years after starting ART. All participants were investigated for active TB at inclusion. The primary study outcomes were the impact of concomitant TB on all-cause mortality, loss to follow-up (LTFU), and lack of virological suppression (VS). Kaplan-Meier survival estimates and Cox proportional hazards models with multivariate adjustments were used.

Results

In total, 141/729 (19%) subjects had concomitant TB, 85% with bacteriological confirmation (median CD4 count TB, 169 cells/mm³; IQR, 99-265; non-TB, 194 cells/mm³; IQR, 122-275). During follow-up (median, 2.5 years), 60 (8%) died and 58 (8%) were LTFU. After ≥6 months of ART, 131/630 (21%) had lack of VS. Concomitant TB did not influence the rates of death, LTFU, or VS. Male gender and malnutrition were associated with higher risk of adverse outcomes. Regardless of TB co-infection status, even after 3 years of ART, two-thirds of participants had CD4 counts below 500 cells/mm³.

Conclusions

Concomitant TB did not impact treatment outcomes in adults investigated for active TB before starting ART at Ethiopian health centers. However, one-third of patients had unsatisfactory long-term treatment outcomes and immunologic recovery was slow, illustrating the need for new interventions to optimize ART programs.

Cohort profile: the Right to Care Clinical HIV Cohort, South Africa

PURPOSE

The research objectives of the Right to Care Clinical HIV Cohort analyses are to: (1) monitor treatment outcomes (including death, loss to follow-up, viral suppression and CD4 count gain among others) for patients on antiretroviral therapy (ART); (2) evaluate the impact of changes in the national treatment guidelines around when to initiate ART on HIV treatment outcomes; (3) evaluate the impact of changes in the national treatment guidelines around what ART regimens to initiate on drug switches; (4) evaluate the cost and cost-effectiveness of HIV treatment delivery models; (5) evaluate the need for and outcomes on second-line and third-line ART; (6) evaluate the impact of comorbidity with non-communicable diseases on HIV treatment outcomes and (7) evaluate the impact of the switch to initiating all patients onto ART regardless of CD4 count.

PARTICIPANTS

The Right to Care Clinical HIV Cohort is an open cohort of data from 10 clinics in two provinces within South Africa. All clinics include data from 2004 onwards. The cohort currently has data on over 115 000 patients initiated on HIV treatment and patients are followed up every 3-6 months for clinical and laboratory monitoring.

FINDINGS TO DATE

Cohort data includes information on demographics, clinical visit, laboratory data, medication history and clinical diagnoses. The data have been used to identify rates and predictors of first-line failure, to identify predictors of mortality for patients on second-line (eg, low CD4 counts) and to show that adolescents and young adults are at increased risk of unsuppressed viral loads compared with adults.

FUTURE PLANS

Future analyses will inform national models of HIV care and treatment to improve HIV care policy in South Africa.