Assessing the danger of self-sustained HIV epidemics in heterosexuals by population based phylogenetic cluster analysis

Cohort Profile: The Zurich Primary HIV Infection Study

The Zurich Primary HIV Infection (ZPHI) study is a longitudinal cohort study established in 2002, aiming to study the clinical, epidemiological, and biological characteristics of primary HIV infection. The ZPHI enrolls individuals with documented primary HIV-1 infection. At the baseline and thereafter, the socio-demographic, clinical, and laboratory data are systematically collected, and regular blood sampling is performed for biobanking. By the end of December 2022, 486 people were enrolled, of which 353 were still undergoing active follow-up. Of the 486 participants, 86% had an acute infection, and 14% a recent HIV-1 infection. Men who have sex with men accounted for 74% of the study population. The median time from the estimated date of infection to diagnosis was 32 days. The median time from diagnosis to the initiation of antiretroviral therapy was 11 days, and this has consistently decreased over the last two decades. During the seroconversion phase, 447 (92%) patients reported having symptoms, of which only 73% of the patients were classified as having typical acute retroviral syndrome. The ZPHI study is a well-characterized cohort belonging to the most extensively studied primary HIV infection cohort. Its findings contribute to advancing our understanding of the early stages of HIV infection and pathogenesis, and it is paving the way to further improve HIV translational research and HIV medicine.

Similar But Different: Integrated Phylogenetic Analysis of Austrian and Swiss HIV-1 Sequences Reveal Differences in Transmission Patterns of the Local HIV-1 Epidemics

OBJECTIVES

Phylogenetic analyses of 2 or more countries allow to detect differences in transmission dynamics of local HIV-1 epidemics beyond differences in demographic characteristics.

METHODS

A maximum-likelihood phylogenetic tree was built using pol -sequences of the Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS) and the Austrian HIV Cohort Study (AHIVCOS), with international background sequences. Three types of phylogenetic cherries (clusters of size 2) were analyzed further: (1) domestic cherries; (2) international cherries; and (3) SHCS/AHIVCOS-cherries. Transmission group and ethnicities observed within the cherries were compared with the respective distribution expected from a random distribution of patients on the phylogeny.

RESULTS

The demographic characteristics of the AHIVCOS (included patients: 3'141) and the SHCS (included patients: 12'902) are very similar. In the AHIVCOS, 36.5% of the patients were in domestic cherries, 8.3% in international cherries, and 7.0% in SHCS/AHIVCOS cherries. Similarly, in the SHCS, 43.0% of the patients were in domestic cherries, 8.2% in international cherries, and 1.7% in SHCS/AHIVCOS cherries. Although international cherries in the SHCS were dominated by heterosexuals with men who have sex with men being underrepresented, the opposite was the case for the AHIVCOS. In both cohorts, cherries with one patient belonging to the transmission group intravenous drug user and the other one non-intravenous drug user were underrepresented.

CONCLUSIONS

In both cohorts, international HIV transmission plays a major role in the local epidemics, mostly driven by men who have sex with men in the AHIVOS, and by heterosexuals in the SHCS, highlighting the importance of international collaborations to understand global HIV transmission links on the way to eliminate HIV.

Increasing Frequency and Transmission of HIV-1 Non-B Subtypes among Men Who Have Sex with Men in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

In Switzerland, HIV-1 transmission among men who have sex with men (MSM) has been dominated by subtype B, whilst non-B subtypes are commonly attributed to infections acquired abroad among heterosexuals. Here, we evaluated the temporal trends of non-B subtypes and the characteristics of molecular transmission clusters (MTCs) among MSM.

METHODS

Sociodemographic and clinical data and partial pol sequences were obtained from participants enrolled in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS). For non-B subtypes, maximum likelihood trees were constructed, from which Swiss MTCs were identified and analysed by transmission group.

RESULTS

Non-B subtypes were identified in 8.1% (416/5,116) of MSM participants. CRF01_AE was the most prevalent strain (3.5%), followed by A (1.2%), F (1.1%), CRF02_AG (1.1%), C (0.9%), and G (0.3%). Between 1990 and 2019, an increase in the proportion of newly diagnosed individuals (0/123[0%] to 11/32 [34%]) with non-B subtypes in MSM was found. Across all non-B subtypes, the majority of MSM MTCs were European. Larger MTCs were observed for MSM than heterosexuals.

CONCLUSIONS

We found a substantial increase in HIV-1 non-B subtypes among MSM in Switzerland and the occurrence of large MTCs, highlighting the importance of molecular surveillance in guiding public health strategies targeting the HIV-1 epidemic.

Subtype-specific differences in transmission cluster dynamics of HIV-1 B and CRF01_AE in New South Wales, Australia

INTRODUCTION

The human immunodeficiency virus 1 (HIV-1) pandemic is characterized by numerous distinct sub-epidemics (clusters) that continually fuel local transmission. The aims of this study were to identify active growing clusters, to understand which factors most influence the transmission dynamics, how these vary between different subtypes and how this information might contribute to effective public health responses.

METHODS

We used HIV-1 genomic sequence data linked to demographic factors that accounted for approximately 70% of all new HIV-1 notifications in New South Wales (NSW). We assessed differences in transmission cluster dynamics between subtype B and circulating recombinant form 01_AE (CRF01_AE). Separate phylogenetic trees were estimated using 2919 subtype B and 473 CRF01_AE sequences sampled between 2004 and 2018 in combination with global sequence data and NSW-specific clades were classified as clusters, pairs or singletons. Significant differences in demographics between subtypes were assessed with Chi-Square statistics.

RESULTS

We identified 104 subtype B and 11 CRF01_AE growing clusters containing a maximum of 29 and 11 sequences for subtype B and CRF01_AE respectively. We observed a > 2-fold increase in the number of NSW-specific CRF01_AE clades over time. Subtype B clusters were associated with individuals reporting men who have sex with men (MSM) as their transmission risk factor, being born in Australia, and being diagnosed during the early stage of infection (p < 0.01). CRF01_AE infections clusters were associated with infections among individuals diagnosed during the early stage of infection (p < 0.05) and CRF01_AE singletons were more likely to be from infections among individuals reporting heterosexual transmission (p < 0.05). We found six subtype B clusters with an above-average growth rate (>1.5 sequences / 6-months) and which consisted of a majority of infections among MSM. We also found four active growing CRF01_AE clusters containing only infections among MSM. Finally, we found 47 subtype B and seven CRF01_AE clusters that contained a large gap in time (>1 year) between infections and may be indicative of intermediate transmissions via undiagnosed individuals.

CONCLUSIONS

The large number of active and growing clusters among MSM are the driving force of the ongoing epidemic in NSW for subtype B and CRF01_AE.

Using longitudinally sampled viral nucleotide sequences to characterize the drivers of HIV-1 transmission

OBJECTIVES

Understanding the drivers of HIV-1 transmission is of importance for curbing the ongoing epidemic. Phylogenetic methods based on single viral sequences allow us to assess whether two individuals are part of the same viral outbreak, but cannot on their own assess who potentially transmitted the virus. We developed and assessed a molecular epidemiology method with the main aim to screen cohort studies for and to characterize individuals who are 'potential HIV-1 transmitters', in order to understand the drivers of HIV-1 transmission.

METHODS

We developed and validated a molecular epidemiology approach using longitudinally sampled viral Sanger sequences to characterize potential HIV-1 transmitters in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study.

RESULTS

Our method was able to identify 279 potential HIV-1 transmitters and allowed us to determine the main epidemiological and virological drivers of transmission. We found that the directionality of transmission was consistent with infection times for 72.9% of 85 potential HIV-1 transmissions with accurate infection date estimates. Being a potential HIV-1 transmitter was associated with risk factors including viral load [adjusted odds ratio_{multivariable} (95% confidence interval): 1.86 (1.49-2.32)], syphilis coinfection [1.52 (1.06-2.19)], and recreational drug use [1.45 (1.06-1.98)]. By contrast for the potential HIV-1 recipients, this association was weaker or even absent [1.18 (0.82-1.72), 0.89 (0.52-1.55) and 1.53 (0.98-2.39), respectively], indicating that inferred directionality of transmission is useful at the population level.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results indicate that longitudinally sampled Sanger sequences do not provide sufficient information to identify transmitters with high certainty at the individual level, but that they allow the drivers of transmission at the population level to be characterized.

Increased HIV Subtype Diversity Reflecting Demographic Changes in the HIV Epidemic in New South Wales, Australia

Changes over time in HIV-1 subtype diversity within a population reflect changes in factors influencing the development of local epidemics. Here we report on the genetic diversity of 2364 reverse transcriptase sequences from people living with HIV-1 in New South Wales (NSW) notified between 2004 and 2018. These data represent >70% of all new HIV-1 notifications in the state over this period. Phylogenetic analysis was performed to identify subtype-specific transmission clusters. Subtype B and non-B infections differed across all demographics analysed (p < 0.001). We found a strong positive association for infections among females, individuals not born in Australia or reporting heterosexual transmission being of non-B origin. Further, we found an overall increase in non-B infections among men who have sex with men from 50 to 79% in the last 10 years. However, we also found differences between non-B subtypes; heterosexual transmission was positively associated with subtype C only. In addition, the majority of subtype B infections were associated with clusters, while the majority of non-B infections were singletons. However, we found seven non-B clusters (≥5 sequences) indicative of local ongoing transmission. In conclusion, we present how the HIV-1 epidemic has changed over time in NSW, becoming more heterogeneous with distinct subtype-specific demographic associations.

HIV Transmission Chains Exhibit Greater HLA-B Homogeneity Than Randomly Expected

BACKGROUND

HIV's capacity to escape immune recognition by human leukocyte antigen (HLA) is a core component of HIV pathogenesis. A better understanding of the distribution of HLA class I in HIV-infected patients would improve our knowledge of pathogenesis in relation to the host HLA type and could better improve therapeutic strategies against HIV.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Three hundred one to 325 transmission pairs and 469-496 clusters were identified for analysis among Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS) participants using HIV pol sequences from the drug resistance database. HLA class I data were compiled at 3 specificity levels: 4-digit, 2-digit alleles, and HLA-B supertype. The analysis tabulated HLA-I homogeneity as 2 measures: the proportion of transmission pairs, which are HLA concordant, and the average percentage of allele matches within all clusters. These measures were compared with the mean value across randomizations with randomly assorted individuals.

RESULTS

We repeated the analysis for different HLA classification levels and separately for HLA-A, -B, and -C. Subanalyses by the risk group were performed for HLA-B. HLA-B showed significantly greater homogeneity in the transmission chains (2-digit clusters: 0.291 vs. 0.251, P value = 0.009; supertype clusters: 0.659 vs. 0.611, P value = 0.002; supertype pairs: 0.655 vs. 0.608, P value = 0.014). Risk group restriction caused the effect to disappear for men-who-have-sex-with-men but not for other risk groups. We also examined if protective HLA alleles B27 and B57 were under- or overrepresented in the transmission chains, although this yielded no significant pattern.

CONCLUSIONS

The HLA-B alleles of patients within HIV-1 transmission chains segregate in homogenous clusters/pairs, potentially indicating preferential transmission among HLA-B concordant individuals.

Molecular network-based intervention brings us closer to ending the HIV pandemic

Precise identification of HIV transmission among populations is a key step in public health responses. However, the HIV transmission network is usually difficult to determine. HIV molecular networks can be determined by phylogenetic approach, genetic distance-based approach, and a combination of both approaches. These approaches are increasingly used to identify transmission networks among populations, reconstruct the history of HIV spread, monitor the dynamics of HIV transmission, guide targeted intervention on key subpopulations, and assess the effects of interventions. Simulation and retrospective studies have demonstrated that these molecular network-based interventions are more cost-effective than random or traditional interventions. However, we still need to address several challenges to improve the practice of molecular network-guided targeting interventions to finally end the HIV epidemic. The data remain limited or difficult to obtain, and more automatic real-time tools are required. In addition, molecular and social networks must be combined, and technical parameters and ethnic issues warrant further studies.

Viral Diversity Based on Next-Generation Sequencing of HIV-1 Provides Precise Estimates of Infection Recency and Time Since Infection

BACKGROUND

Human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) genetic diversity increases over the course of infection and can be used to infer the time since infection and, consequently, infection recency, which are crucial for HIV-1 surveillance and the understanding of viral pathogenesis.

METHODS

We considered 313 HIV-infected individuals for whom reliable estimates of infection dates and next-generation sequencing (NGS)-derived nucleotide frequency data were available. Fractions of ambiguous nucleotides, obtained by population sequencing, were available for 207 samples. We assessed whether the average pairwise diversity calculated using NGS sequences provided a more exact prediction of the time since infection and classification of infection recency (<1 year after infection), compared with the fraction of ambiguous nucleotides.

RESULTS

NGS-derived average pairwise diversity classified an infection as recent with a sensitivity of 88% and a specificity of 85%. When considering only the 207 samples for which fractions of ambiguous nucleotides were available, the NGS-derived average pairwise diversity exhibited a higher sensitivity (90% vs 78%) and specificity (95% vs 67%) than the fraction of ambiguous nucleotides. Additionally, the average pairwise diversity could be used to estimate the time since infection with a mean absolute error of 0.84 years, compared with 1.03 years for the fraction of ambiguous nucleotides.

CONCLUSIONS

Viral diversity based on NGS data is more precise than that based on population sequencing in its ability to predict infection recency and provides an estimated time since infection that has a mean absolute error of <1 year.

A Systematic Phylogenetic Approach to Study the Interaction of HIV-1 With Coinfections, Noncommunicable Diseases, and Opportunistic Diseases

To systematically test whether coinfections spread along the HIV-1 transmission network and whether similarities in HIV-1 genomes predict AIDS-defining illnesses and comorbidities, we analyzed the distribution of these variables on the HIV phylogeny of the densely sampled Swiss HIV Cohort Study. By combining different statistical methods, we could detect, quantify, and explain the clustering of diseases. Infectious conditions such as hepatitis C, but also Kaposi sarcoma, clustered significantly, suggesting transmission of these infections along the HIV-1 transmission network. The clustering of patients with neurocognitive complaints could not be completely explained by the clustering of patients with similar demographic risk factors, which suggests a potential impact of viral genetics. In summary, the consistent and robust signal for coinfections and comorbidities highlights the strong interaction of HIV-1 and other infections and shows the potential of combining phylogenetic methods to identify disease traits that are likely to be related to virus genetic factors.

Downgrading disease transmission risk estimates using terminal importations

As emerging and re-emerging infectious arboviruses like dengue, chikungunya, and Zika threaten new populations worldwide, officials scramble to assess local severity and transmissibility, with little to no epidemiological history to draw upon. Indirect estimates of risk from vector habitat suitability maps are prone to great uncertainty, while direct estimates from epidemiological data are only possible after cases accumulate and, given environmental constraints on arbovirus transmission, cannot be widely generalized beyond the focal region. Combining these complementary methods, we use disease importation and transmission data to improve the accuracy and precision of a priori ecological risk estimates. We demonstrate this approach by estimating the spatiotemporal risks of Zika virus transmission throughout Texas, a high-risk region in the southern United States. Our estimates are, on average, 80% lower than published ecological estimates-with only six of 254 Texas counties deemed capable of sustaining a Zika epidemic-and they are consistent with the number of autochthonous cases detected in 2017. Importantly our method provides a framework for model comparison, as our mechanistic understanding of arbovirus transmission continues to improve. Real-time updating of prior risk estimates as importations and outbreaks arise can thereby provide critical, early insight into local transmission risks as emerging arboviruses expand their global reach.

Limited Sustained Local Transmission of HIV-1 CRF01_AE in New South Wales, Australia

Australia’s response to the human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) pandemic led to effective control of HIV transmission and one of the world’s lowest HIV incidence rates—0.14%. Although there has been a recent decline in new HIV diagnoses in New South Wales (NSW), the most populous state in Australia, there has been a concomitant increase with non-B subtype infections, particularly for the HIV-1 circulating recombinant form CRF01_AE. This aforementioned CRF01_AE sampled in NSW, were combined with those sampled globally to identify NSW-specific viral clades. The population growth of these clades was assessed in two-year period intervals from 2009 to 2017. Overall, 109 NSW-specific clades were identified, most comprising pairs of sequences; however, five large clades comprising ≥10 sequences were also found. Forty-four clades grew over time with one or two sequences added to each in different two-year periods. Importantly, while 10 of these clades have seemingly discontinued, the remaining 34 were still active in 2016/2017. Seven such clades each comprised ≥10 sequences, and are representative of individual sub-epidemics in NSW. Thus, although the majority of new CRF01_AE infections were associated with small clades that rarely establish ongoing chains of local transmission, individual sub-epidemics are present and should be closely monitored.

Inferring the age difference in HIV transmission pairs by applying phylogenetic methods on the HIV transmission network of the Swiss HIV Cohort Study

Age-mixing patterns are of key importance for understanding the dynamics of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-epidemics and target public health interventions. We use the densely sampled Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS) resistance database to study the age difference at infection in HIV transmission pairs using phylogenetic methods. In addition, we investigate whether the mean age difference of pairs in the phylogenetic tree is influenced by sampling as well as by additional distance thresholds for including pairs. HIV-1 pol-sequences of 11,922 SHCS patients and approximately 240,000 Los Alamos background sequences were used to build a phylogenetic tree. Using this tree, 100 per cent down to 1 per cent of the tips were sampled repeatedly to generate pruned trees (N = 500 for each sample proportion), of which pairs of SHCS patients were extracted. The mean of the absolute age differences of the pairs, measured as the absolute difference of the birth years, was analyzed with respect to this sample proportion and a distance criterion for inclusion of the pairs. In addition, the transmission groups men having sex with men (MSM), intravenous drug users (IDU), and heterosexuals (HET) were analyzed separately. Considering the tree with all 11,922 SHCS patients, 2,991 pairs could be extracted, with 954 (31.9 per cent) MSM-pairs, 635 (21.2 per cent) HET-pairs, 414 (13.8 per cent) IDU-pairs, and 352 (11.8 per cent) HET/IDU-pairs. For all transmission groups, the age difference at infection was significantly (P < 0.001) smaller for pairs in the tree compared with randomly assigned pairs, meaning that patients of similar age are more likely to be pairs. The mean age difference in the phylogenetic analysis, using a fixed distance of 0.05, was 9.2, 9.0, 7.3 and 5.6 years for MSM-, HET-, HET/IDU-, and IDU-pairs, respectively. Decreasing the cophenetic distance threshold from 0.05 to 0.01 significantly decreased the mean age difference. Similarly, repeated sampling of 100 per cent down to 1 per cent of the tips revealed an increased age difference at lower sample proportions. HIV-transmission is age-assortative, but the age difference of transmission pairs detected by phylogenetic analyses depends on both sampling proportion and distance criterion. The mean age difference decreases when using more conservative distance thresholds, implying an underestimation of age-assortativity when using liberal distance criteria. Similarly, overestimation of the mean age difference occurs for pairs from sparsely sampled trees, as it is often the case in sub-Saharan Africa.

Quantifying the fitness cost of HIV-1 drug resistance mutations through phylodynamics

Drug resistant HIV is a major threat to the long-term efficacy of antiretroviral treatment. Around 10% of ART-naïve patients in Europe are infected with drug-resistant HIV type 1. Hence it is important to understand the dynamics of transmitted drug resistance evolution. Thanks to routinely performed drug resistance tests, HIV sequence data is increasingly available and can be used to reconstruct the phylogenetic relationship among viral lineages. In this study we employ a phylodynamic approach to quantify the fitness costs of major resistance mutations in the Swiss HIV cohort. The viral phylogeny reflects the transmission tree, which we model using stochastic birth–death-sampling processes with two types: hosts infected by a sensitive or resistant strain. This allows quantification of fitness cost as the ratio between transmission rates of hosts infected by drug resistant strains and transmission rates of hosts infected by drug sensitive strains. The resistance mutations 41L, 67N, 70R, 184V, 210W, 215D, 215S and 219Q (nRTI-related) and 103N, 108I, 138A, 181C, 190A (NNRTI-related) in the reverse trancriptase and the 90M mutation in the protease gene are included in this study. Among the considered resistance mutations, only the 90M mutation in the protease gene was found to have significantly higher fitness than the drug sensitive strains. The following mutations associated with resistance to reverse transcriptase inhibitors were found to be less fit than the sensitive strains: 67N, 70R, 184V, 219Q. The highest posterior density intervals of the transmission ratios for the remaining resistance mutations included in this study all included 1, suggesting that these mutations do not have a significant effect on viral transmissibility within the Swiss HIV cohort. These patterns are consistent with alternative measures of the fitness cost of resistance mutations. Overall, we have developed and validated a novel phylodynamic approach to estimate the transmission fitness cost of drug resistance mutations.

The introduction of antiretroviral therapy (ART) has decreased mortality and morbidity rates among HIV-infected people, and improved their quality of life. In fact, the WHO states that antiretroviral therapy programmes averted an estimated 7.8 million deaths worldwide between 2000 and 2014. However, the antiretroviral regimen prescribed to a patient may be unable to control HIV infection. Factors that can contribute to treatment failure include drug resistance, drug toxicity, or poor treatment adherence. In this study we aim to understand the dynamics of transmitted drug resistance by analysing the viral sequence data that was collected for resistance testing. We present a novel approach to quantify how drug resistance impacts virus lineage transmissibility, how fast resistance mutations evolve in sensitive strains and how fast they revert back to the sensitive type. We apply our approach to the Swiss HIV cohort study, and obtain patterns of viral transmission fitness that are consistent with alternative, harder to obtain measures of fitness.