Belief updating in bipolar disorder predicts time of recurrence

A preliminary study on brain developmental features of bipolar disorder familial risk and subthreshold symptoms

BACKGROUND

Risk for Bipolar disorder (BD) is increased among individuals with family history or subthreshold mood symptoms. However, the brain structural developments associated with these BD risks remained unknown.

METHODS

This longitudinal cohort study examined the brain grey matter volume (GMV) developmental features of familial and symptomatic risks for BD, and their associations with participants' global function levels. We recruited unaffected BD offspring with (N=26, age=14.9±2.9 years, 14 females) or without (N=35, age=15.3±2.7 years, 19 females) subthreshold manic or depressive symptoms, and unaffected non-BD offspring with (N=49, age=14.5±2.2 years, 30 females) or without (N=68, age=15.0±2.3 years, 37 females) symptoms. The offspring had no mood disorder diagnosis prior to the study. The average follow-up duration was 2.63±1.63 years.

RESULTS

We found at baseline, significant interactive effects of familial risk and subthreshold symptoms indicated the symptomatic offspring exhibited markedly large GMV in the brain affective and cognitive circuitries. During follow-up, the combined group of BD offspring (symptomatic and non-symptomatic) displayed accelerated GMV decrease than BD non-offspring, in the hippocampus and anterior cingulate cortex. In contrast, the combined group of symptomatic participants (offspring and non-offspring) displayed slower GMV decrease than non-symptomatic participants, in the ventromedial prefrontal cortex. Larger GMV at baseline, and accelerated GMV decrease during follow-up, prospectively and longitudinally predicted positive global function changes. All results survived multiple-testing correction.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings indicated that familial and symptomatic risks of BD are associated with distinct brain structural developments, and unraveled key brain developmental features of particularly vulnerable high-risk individuals to subsequent functional deterioration.

The Epidemiological, Clinical, and Therapeutic Profile of Bipolar Patients in Eastern Morocco

INTRODUCTION

 Bipolar disorder is a severe psychiatric disorder. The objective of our study is to describe the epidemiological, clinical, and therapeutic profile of patients followed for bipolar disorder in this hospital.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This is a cross-sectional, descriptive study conducted over a period of two years within the mental health and psychiatric diseases department of the Mohammed VI University Hospital in Oujda, Morocco, including 206 patients followed for bipolar disorder on an outpatient basis or hospitalized in one of the departments of the hospital.

RESULTS

We included in our study 206 patients with an average age of 37.34+/-12.53 and a male predominance. About 17% of our patients reported a personal medical history and 18.4%, a personal surgical history. Regarding the family history, 40.3% have a medical and surgical history and 63.1%, a psychiatric family history. The consumption of psychoactive substances is present in 49.5% of our patients. About 26.7% reported psychological trauma during childhood. Our patients have reported a history of suicide attempts with a prevalence of 26.6% in several settings: depressive (15%), delusional (5.8%), hallucinatory (3.9%), and anxious (1.9%). Several means were used during these suicide attempts, in particular, defenestration (40%), drug ingestion (36.4%), caustic ingestion (16.4%), strangulation (16.4%), and hanging (10.9%).

CONCLUSION

 It is important to develop a personalized approach to the patient wherever possible and, if necessary, to involve other specialists in diagnosis and treatment.

Large environmental changes reduce valence-dependent belief updating

When updating beliefs, humans tend to integrate more desirable information than undesirable information. In stable environments (low uncertainty and high predictability), this asymmetry favors motivation towards action and perceived self-efficacy. However, in changing environments (high uncertainty and low predictability), this process can lead to risk underestimation and increase unwanted costs. Here, we examine how people (n = 388) integrate threatening information during an abrupt environmental change (mandatory quarantine during the COVID-19 pandemic). Given that anxiety levels are associated with the magnitude of the updating belief asymmetry; we explore its relationship during this particular context. We report a significant reduction in asymmetrical belief updating during a large environmental change as individuals integrated desirable and undesirable information to the same extent. Moreover, this result was supported by computational modeling of the belief update task. However, we found that the reduction in asymmetrical belief updating was not homogeneous among people with different levels of Trait-anxiety. Individuals with higher levels of Trait-anxiety maintained a valence-dependent updating, as it occurs in stable environments. On the other hand, updating behavior was not associated with acute anxiety (State-Anxiety), health concerns (Health-Anxiety), or having positive expectations (Trait-Optimism). These results suggest that highly uncertain environments can generate adaptive changes in information integration. At the same time, it reveals the vulnerabilities of individuals with higher levels of anxiety to adapt the way they learn.

Does disconfirmatory evidence shape safety-and danger-related beliefs of trauma-exposed individuals?

Recent accounts of predictive processing in posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) suggest that trauma-exposed individuals struggle to update trauma-related hypotheses predicting danger, which may be involved in the etiology and maintenance of this disorder. Initial research supports this account, documenting an association between trauma-exposure, impaired expectation updating, and PTSD symptoms. Yet, no study to date has examined biased belief updating in PTSD using a scenario-based approach.Objective: Here, we examined the predictive processing account among trauma-exposed and non-trauma-exposed individuals using a modified Trauma-Related version of the Bias Against Disconfirmatory Evidence task.Method: The task presents both danger-and safety-related scenarios highly relevant for trauma-exposed individuals. For each scenario, participants viewed several explanations and rated their plausibility. Their ability to update their initial interpretation following new-contradictory information was assessed.Results: Preregistered analyses did not reveal any significant findings. Based on indications that our sample may not have been sufficiently powered, we conducted exploratory analyses in an extended sample of participants. These analyses yielded a significant association between reduced belief updating and PTSD symptoms which was evident for disconfirming both safety and danger scenarios. However, the effect sizes we found were in the small-to-medium range.Conclusion: Although preliminary, our current findings support initial evidence that individuals with higher PTSD symptoms show a higher resistance to update their beliefs upon new disconfirmatory evidence. Our results should be interpreted cautiously in light of the extended sample and the limitations of the current study.

The effect of aging on facial emotion recognition in bipolar disorder

OBJECTIVE

Convergent data point to an exaggerated negativity bias in bipolar disorder (BD), and little is known about whether people with BD experience the 'positivity effect' with increasing age.

METHOD

This is a cross sectional study of 202 participants with BD aged 18-65, and a sample (n = 53) of healthy controls (HCs). Participants completed the CANTAB Emotion Recognition Task (ERT). Using analysis of variance, we tested for a main effect of age, diagnosis, and an interaction of age x diagnosis on both negative and positive conditions.

RESULTS

We observed increased accuracy in identifying positive stimuli in the HC sample as a function of increasing age, a pattern that was not seen in participants with BD. Specifically, there was a significant diagnosis by age cohort interaction on ERT performance that was specific to the identification of happiness, where the Later Adulthood cohort of HCs was more accurate when identifying happy faces relative to the same cohort of BD patients.

CONCLUSION

Later life looks different for people with BD. With an aging population globally, gaining a clearer picture of the effects of recurrent mood dysregulation on the brain will be critical in guiding efforts to effectively optimize outcomes in older adults with BD.

There is no belief update bias for neutral events: failure to replicate Burton et al. (2022)

In a recent paper, Burton et al. claim that individuals update beliefs to a greater extent when learning an event is less likely compared to more likely than expected. Here, we investigate Burton's et al.'s, findings. First, we show how Burton et al.'s data do not in fact support a belief update bias for neutral events. Next, in an attempt to replicate their findings, we collect a new data set employing the original belief update task design, but with neutral events. A belief update bias for neutral events is not observed. Finally, we highlight the statistical errors and confounds in Burton et al.'s design and analysis. This includes mis-specifying a reinforcement learning approach to model the data and failing to follow standard computational model fitting sanity checks such as parameter recovery, model comparison and out of sample prediction. Together, the results find little evidence for biased updating for neutral events.

The longitudinal trajectory of emotional cognition in subgroups of recently diagnosed patients with bipolar disorder

Although cross-sectional studies show heterogeneity in emotional cognition in bipolar disorder (BD), the temporal course within subgroups is unclear. In this prospective, longitudinal study we assessed the trajectories of emotional cognition subgroups within a 16-month follow-up period in recently diagnosed BD patients compared to healthy controls (HC). Recently diagnosed BD patients and HC underwent comprehensive emotional and non-emotional testing at baseline and again at follow-up. We employed hierarchical cluster analysis at baseline to identify homogenous emotional cognition subgroups of patients, and changes across the subgroups of BD and HC were assessed with linear mixed-model analyses. We found two emotional cognition subgroups: subgroup 1 (65%, n = 179), showing heightened negative emotional reactivity in neutral and negative social scenarios and faster recognition of emotional facial expressions than HC (ps<0.001, n = 190), and subgroup 2 (35%, n = 96) showing blunted reactivity in positive social scenarios, impaired emotion regulation, poorer recognition of positive and slower recognition of all facial expressions than HC (ps≤.03). Subgroup 1 exhibited normalization of the initial emotional cognition abnormalities in follow-up. In contrast, subgroup 2 showed a lack of improvement in reactivity positively-valenced emotional information. Patients in subgroup 2 presented more and longer mixed episodes during the follow-up time and were more often prescribed lithium. One third of patients display blunted emotional reactivity, impaired emotion regulation abilities and facial expression recognition difficulties also show persistent impairments and poorer course of illness. This subgroup may indicate a need for earlier and more targeted therapeutic interventions.

Anhedonia and sensitivity to punishment in schizophrenia, depression and opiate use disorder

BACKGROUND

From a behavioural perspective anhedonia is defined as diminished interest in the engagement of pleasurable activities. Despite its presence across a range of psychiatric disorders, the cognitive processes that give rise to anhedonia remain unclear.

METHODS

Here we examine whether anhedonia is associated with learning from positive and negative outcomes in patients diagnosed with major depression, schizophrenia and opiate use disorder alongside a healthy control group. Responses in the Wisconsin Card Sorting Test - a task associated with healthy prefrontal cortex function - were fitted to the Attentional Learning Model (ALM) which separates learning from positive and negative feedback.

RESULTS

Learning from punishment, but not from reward, was negatively associated with anhedonia beyond other socio-demographic, cognitive and clinical variables. This impairment in punishment sensitivity was also associated with faster responses following negative feedback, independently of the degree of surprise.

LIMITATIONS

Future studies should test the longitudinal association between punishment sensitivity and anhedonia also in other clinical populations controlling for the effect of specific medications.

CONCLUSIONS

Together the results reveal that anhedonic subjects, because of their negative expectations, are less sensitive to negative feedbacks; this might lead them to persist in actions leading to negative outcomes.

Is depression associated with reduced optimistic belief updating?

When asked to evaluate their probability of experiencing a negative life event, healthy individuals update their beliefs more following good news than bad. This is referred to as optimistic belief updating. By contrast, individuals with depression update their beliefs by a similar amount, showing reduced optimism. We conducted the first independent replication of this effect and extended this work to examine whether reduced optimistic belief updating in depression also occurs for positive life events. Replicating previous research, healthy and depression groups differed in belief updating for negative events (β = 0.71, 95% CI: 0.24, 1.18). Whereas healthy participants updated their beliefs more following good news than bad, individuals experiencing depression lacked this bias. However, our findings for positive events were inconclusive. While we did not find statistical evidence that patterns of belief updating between groups varied by valence (β = -0.51, 95% CI: -1.16, 0.15), mean update scores suggested that both groups showed largely similar updating for positive life events. Our results add confidence to previous findings that depression is characterized by negative future expectations maintained by reduced updating in response to good news. However, further research is required to understand the specificity of this to negative events, and into refining methods for quantifying belief updating in clinical and non-clinical research.

Associations between cognition and subsequent mood episodes in patients with bipolar disorder and their unaffected relatives: A systematic review

BACKGROUND

Bipolar disorder (BD) is highly recurrent and prevention of relapse and illness onset is an urgent treatment priority. This systematic review examined whether cognitive assessments can aid prediction of recurrence in patients with BD and/or illness onset in individuals at familial risk.

METHODS

The review included longitudinal studies of patients with BD or individuals at familial risk of mood disorder that examined the association between cognitive functions and subsequent relapse or illness onset, respectively. We followed the procedures of the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA) 2020 statement. Searches were conducted on PubMed/MEDLINE, EMBASE and PsychInfo databases from inception up until May 10th 2021.

RESULTS

We identified 19 eligible studies; 12 studies investigated cognitive predictors of recurrence in BD (N = 36-76) and seven investigated cognitive predictors of illness onset in at-risk individuals (N = 84-234). In BD, general cognitive impairment, poorer verbal memory and executive function and positive bias were associated with subsequent (hypo)manic relapse -but with not depressive relapse or mood episodes in general. In first-degree relatives, impairments in attention, verbal memory and executive functions and positive bias were associated with subsequent illness onset.

LIMITATIONS

The findings should be considered preliminary given the small-to-moderate sample sizes and scarcity of studies.

CONCLUSIONS

Subject to replication, the associations between cognitive impairment and (hypo)mania relapse and illness onset may provide a platform for personalised treatment and prophylactic strategies.