Regional importation and asymmetric within-country spread of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern in the Netherlands

Long-term wastewater monitoring of SARS-CoV-2 viral loads and variants at the major international passenger hub Amsterdam Schiphol Airport: A valuable addition to COVID-19 surveillance

Wastewater-based epidemiological surveillance at municipal wastewater treatment plants has proven to play an important role in COVID-19 surveillance. Considering international passenger hubs contribute extensively to global transmission of viruses, wastewater surveillance at this type of location may be of added value as well. The aim of this study is to explore the potential of long-term wastewater surveillance at a large passenger hub as an additional tool for public health surveillance during different stages of a pandemic. Here, we present an analysis of SARS-CoV-2 viral loads in airport wastewater by reverse-transcription quantitative polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR) from the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic in Feb 2020, and an analysis of SARS-CoV-2 variants by whole-genome next-generation sequencing from Sep 2020, both until Sep 2022, in the Netherlands. Results are contextualized using (inter)national measures and data sources such as passenger numbers, clinical surveillance data and national wastewater surveillance data. Our findings show that wastewater surveillance was possible throughout the study period, irrespective of measures, as viral loads were detected and quantified in 98.6 % (273/277) of samples. Emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants, identified in 91.0 % (161/177) of sequenced samples, coincided with increases in viral loads. Furthermore, trends in viral load and variant detection in airport wastewater closely followed, and in some cases preceded, trends in national daily average viral load in wastewater and variants detected in clinical surveillance. Wastewater-based epidemiology at a large international airport is a valuable addition to classical COVID-19 surveillance and the developed expertise can be applied in pandemic preparedness plans for other (emerging) pathogens in the future.

Emergence and spread of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern in Canada: a retrospective analysis from clinical and wastewater data

BACKGROUND

The spread of SARS-CoV-2 has been studied at unprecedented levels worldwide. In jurisdictions where molecular analysis was performed on large scales, the emergence and competition of numerous SARS-CoV-2lineages have been observed in near real-time. Lineage identification, traditionally performed from clinical samples, can also be determined by sampling wastewater from sewersheds serving populations of interest. Variants of concern (VOCs) and SARS-CoV-2 lineages associated with increased transmissibility and/or severity are of particular interest.

METHOD

Here, we consider clinical and wastewater data sources to assess the emergence and spread of VOCs in Canada retrospectively.

RESULTS

We show that, overall, wastewater-based VOC identification provides similar insights to the surveillance based on clinical samples. Based on clinical data, we observed synchrony in VOC introduction as well as similar emergence speeds across most Canadian provinces despite the large geographical size of the country and differences in provincial public health measures.

CONCLUSION

In particular, it took approximately four months for VOC Alpha and Delta to contribute to half of the incidence. In contrast, VOC Omicron achieved the same contribution in less than one month. This study provides significant benchmarks to enhance planning for future VOCs, and to some extent for future pandemics caused by other pathogens, by quantifying the rate of SARS-CoV-2 VOCs invasion in Canada.

Approaches and challenges to inferring the geographical source of infectious disease outbreaks using genomic data

Genomic data hold increasing potential in the elucidation of transmission dynamics and geographical sources of infectious disease outbreaks. Phylogeographic methods that use epidemiological and genomic data obtained from surveillance enable us to infer the history of spatial transmission that is naturally embedded in the topology of phylogenetic trees as a record of the dispersal of infectious agents between geographical locations. In this Review, we provide an overview of phylogeographic approaches widely used for reconstructing the geographical sources of outbreaks of interest. These approaches can be classified into ancestral trait or state reconstruction and structured population models, with structured population models including popular structured coalescent and birth-death models. We also describe the major challenges associated with sequencing technologies, surveillance strategies, data sharing, and analysis frameworks that became apparent during the generation of large-scale genomic data in recent years, extending beyond inference approaches. Finally, we highlight the role of genomic data in geographical source inference and clarify how this enhances understanding and molecular investigations of outbreak sources.

The daily updated Dutch national database on COVID-19 epidemiology, vaccination and sewage surveillance

The Dutch national open database on COVID-19 has been incrementally expanded since its start on 30 April 2020 and now includes datasets on symptoms, tests performed, individual-level positive cases and deaths, cases and deaths among vulnerable populations, settings of transmission, hospital and ICU admissions, SARS-CoV-2 variants, viral loads in sewage, vaccinations and the effective reproduction number. This data is collected by municipal health services, laboratories, hospitals, sewage treatment plants, vaccination providers and citizens and is cleaned, analysed and published, mostly daily, by the National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM) in the Netherlands, using automated scripts. Because these datasets cover the key aspects of the pandemic and are available at detailed geographical level, they are essential to gain a thorough understanding of the past and current COVID-19 epidemiology in the Netherlands. Future purposes of these datasets include country-level comparative analysis on the effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions against COVID-19 in different contexts, such as different cultural values or levels of socio-economic disparity, and studies on COVID-19 and weather factors.

Dispersal patterns and influence of air travel during the global expansion of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern

The Alpha, Beta, and Gamma SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (VOCs) co-circulated globally during 2020 and 2021, fueling waves of infections. They were displaced by Delta during a third wave worldwide in 2021, which, in turn, was displaced by Omicron in late 2021. In this study, we use phylogenetic and phylogeographic methods to reconstruct the dispersal patterns of VOCs worldwide. We find that source-sink dynamics varied substantially by VOC and identify countries that acted as global and regional hubs of dissemination. We demonstrate the declining role of presumed origin countries of VOCs in their global dispersal, estimating that India contributed <15% of Delta exports and South Africa <1%-2% of Omicron dispersal. We estimate that >80 countries had received introductions of Omicron within 100 days of its emergence, associated with accelerated passenger air travel and higher transmissibility. Our study highlights the rapid dispersal of highly transmissible variants, with implications for genomic surveillance along the hierarchical airline network.

Tracking SARS-CoV-2 introductions in Mozambique using pandemic-scale phylogenies: a retrospective observational study

BACKGROUND

From the start of the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak, global sequencing efforts have generated an unprecedented amount of genomic data. Nonetheless, unequal sampling between high-income and low-income countries hinders the implementation of genomic surveillance systems at the global and local level. Filling the knowledge gaps of genomic information and understanding pandemic dynamics in low-income countries is essential for public health decision making and to prepare for future pandemics. In this context, we aimed to discover the timing and origin of SARS-CoV-2 variant introductions in Mozambique, taking advantage of pandemic-scale phylogenies.

METHODS

We did a retrospective, observational study in southern Mozambique. Patients from Manhiça presenting with respiratory symptoms were recruited, and those enrolled in clinical trials were excluded. Data were included from three sources: (1) a prospective hospital-based surveillance study (MozCOVID), recruiting patients living in Manhiça, attending the Manhiça district hospital, and fulfilling the criteria of suspected COVID-19 case according to WHO; (2) symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals with SARS-CoV-2 infection recruited by the National Surveillance system; and (3) sequences from SARS-CoV-2-infected Mozambican cases deposited on the Global Initiative on Sharing Avian Influenza Data database. Positive samples amenable for sequencing were analysed. We used Ultrafast Sample placement on Existing tRees to understand the dynamics of beta and delta waves, using available genomic data. This tool can reconstruct a phylogeny with millions of sequences by efficient sample placement in a tree. We reconstructed a phylogeny (~7·6 million sequences) adding new and publicly available beta and delta sequences.

FINDINGS

A total of 5793 patients were recruited between Nov 1, 2020, and Aug 31, 2021. During this time, 133 328 COVID-19 cases were reported in Mozambique. 280 good quality new SARS-CoV-2 sequences were obtained after the inclusion criteria were applied and an additional 652 beta (B.1.351) and delta (B.1.617.2) public sequences were included from Mozambique. We evaluated 373 beta and 559 delta sequences. We identified 187 beta introductions (including 295 sequences), divided in 42 transmission groups and 145 unique introductions, mostly from South Africa, between August, 2020 and July, 2021. For delta, we identified 220 introductions (including 494 sequences), with 49 transmission groups and 171 unique introductions, mostly from the UK, India, and South Africa, between April and November, 2021.

INTERPRETATION

The timing and origin of introductions suggests that movement restrictions effectively avoided introductions from non-African countries, but not from surrounding countries. Our results raise questions about the imbalance between the consequences of restrictions and health benefits. This new understanding of pandemic dynamics in Mozambique can be used to inform public health interventions to control the spread of new variants.

FUNDING

European and Developing Countries Clinical Trials, European Research Council, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and Agència de Gestió d'Ajuts Universitaris i de Recerca.

SARS-CoV-2 diagnostic testing rates determine the sensitivity of genomic surveillance programs

The first step in SARS-CoV-2 genomic surveillance is testing to identify people who are infected. However, global testing rates are falling as we emerge from the acute health emergency and remain low in many low- and middle-income countries (mean = 27 tests per 100,000 people per day). We simulated COVID-19 epidemics in a prototypical low- and middle-income country to investigate how testing rates, sampling strategies and sequencing proportions jointly impact surveillance outcomes, and showed that low testing rates and spatiotemporal biases delay time to detection of new variants by weeks to months and can lead to unreliable estimates of variant prevalence, even when the proportion of samples sequenced is increased. Accordingly, investments in wider access to diagnostics to support testing rates of approximately 100 tests per 100,000 people per day could enable more timely detection of new variants and reliable estimates of variant prevalence. The performance of global SARS-CoV-2 genomic surveillance programs is fundamentally limited by access to diagnostic testing.

Global Expansion of SARS-CoV-2 Variants of Concern: Dispersal Patterns and Influence of Air Travel

In many regions of the world, the Alpha, Beta and Gamma SARS-CoV-2 Variants of Concern (VOCs) co-circulated during 2020-21 and fueled waves of infections. During 2021, these variants were almost completely displaced by the Delta variant, causing a third wave of infections worldwide. This phenomenon of global viral lineage displacement was observed again in late 2021, when the Omicron variant disseminated globally. In this study, we use phylogenetic and phylogeographic methods to reconstruct the dispersal patterns of SARS-CoV-2 VOCs worldwide. We find that the source-sink dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 varied substantially by VOC, and identify countries that acted as global hubs of variant dissemination, while other countries became regional contributors to the export of specific variants. We demonstrate a declining role of presumed origin countries of VOCs to their global dispersal: we estimate that India contributed <15% of all global exports of Delta to other countries and South Africa <1-2% of all global Omicron exports globally. We further estimate that >80 countries had received introductions of Omicron BA.1 100 days after its inferred date of emergence, compared to just over 25 countries for the Alpha variant. This increased speed of global dissemination was associated with a rebound in air travel volume prior to Omicron emergence in addition to the higher transmissibility of Omicron relative to Alpha. Our study highlights the importance of global and regional hubs in VOC dispersal, and the speed at which highly transmissible variants disseminate through these hubs, even before their detection and characterization through genomic surveillance.

Highlights

Global phylogenetic analysis reveals relationship between air travel and speed of dispersal of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (VOCs)Omicron VOC spread to 5x more countries within 100 days of its emergence compared to all other VOCsOnward transmission and dissemination of VOCs Delta and Omicron was primarily from secondary hubs rather than initial country of detection during a time of increased global air travelAnalysis highlights highly connected countries identified as major global and regional exporters of VOCs.

Epidemiological and Clinical Features of SARS-CoV-2 Variants Circulating between April-December 2021 in Italy

SARS-CoV-2 is constantly evolving, leading to new variants. We analysed data from 4400 SARS-CoV-2-positive samples in order to pursue epidemiological variant surveillance and to evaluate their impact on public health in Italy in the period of April-December 2021. The main circulating strain (76.2%) was the Delta variant, followed by the Alpha (13.3%), the Omicron (5.3%), and the Gamma variants (2.9%). The B.1.1 lineages, Eta, Beta, Iota, Mu, and Kappa variants, represented around 1% of cases. There were 48.2% of subjects who had not been vaccinated, and they had a lower median age compared to the vaccinated subjects (47 vs. 61 years). An increasing number of infections in the vaccinated subjects were observed over time, with the highest proportion in November (85.2%). The variants correlated with clinical status; the largest proportion of symptomatic patients (59.6%) was observed with the Delta variant, while subjects harbouring the Gamma variant showed the highest proportion of asymptomatic infection (21.6%), albeit also deaths (5.4%). The Omicron variant was only found in the vaccinated subjects, of which 47% had been hospitalised. The diffusivity and pathogenicity associated with the different SARS-CoV-2 variants are likely to have relevant public health implications, both at the national and international levels. Our study provides data on the rapid changes in the epidemiological landscape of the SARS-CoV-2 variants in Italy.