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Brito AF, Semenova E, Dudas G, Hassler GW, Kalinich CC, Kraemer MUG, Ho J, Tegally H, Githinji G, Agoti CN, Matkin LE, Whittaker C, Howden BP, Sintchenko V, Zuckerman NS, Mor O, Blankenship HM, de Oliveira T, Lin RTP, Siqueira MM, Resende PC, Vasconcelos ATR, Spilki FR, Aguiar RS, Alexiev I, Ivanov IN, Philipova I, Carrington CVF, Sahadeo NSD, Branda B, Gurry C, Maurer-Stroh S, Naidoo D, von Eije KJ, Perkins MD, van Kerkhove M, Hill SC, Sabino EC, Pybus OG, Dye C, Bhatt S, Flaxman S, Suchard MA, Grubaugh ND, Baele G, Faria NR. Global disparities in SARS-CoV-2 genomic surveillance. Nat Commun 2022; 13:7003. [PMID: 36385137 PMCID: PMC9667854 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-33713-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 58] [Impact Index Per Article: 29.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/29/2022] [Accepted: 09/29/2022] [Indexed: 11/17/2022] Open
Abstract
Genomic sequencing is essential to track the evolution and spread of SARS-CoV-2, optimize molecular tests, treatments, vaccines, and guide public health responses. To investigate the global SARS-CoV-2 genomic surveillance, we used sequences shared via GISAID to estimate the impact of sequencing intensity and turnaround times on variant detection in 189 countries. In the first two years of the pandemic, 78% of high-income countries sequenced >0.5% of their COVID-19 cases, while 42% of low- and middle-income countries reached that mark. Around 25% of the genomes from high income countries were submitted within 21 days, a pattern observed in 5% of the genomes from low- and middle-income countries. We found that sequencing around 0.5% of the cases, with a turnaround time <21 days, could provide a benchmark for SARS-CoV-2 genomic surveillance. Socioeconomic inequalities undermine the global pandemic preparedness, and efforts must be made to support low- and middle-income countries improve their local sequencing capacity.
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Affiliation(s)
- Anderson F Brito
- Department of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USA.
- Instituto Todos pela Saúde, São Paulo, SP, Brazil.
| | | | - Gytis Dudas
- Institute of Biotechnology, Life Sciences Center, Vilnius University, Vilnius, Lithuania
| | - Gabriel W Hassler
- Department of Computational Medicine, David Geffen School of Medicine, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, USA
| | - Chaney C Kalinich
- Department of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USA
- Yale School of Medicine, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA
| | | | - Joses Ho
- GISAID Global Data Science Initiative, Munich, Germany
- Bioinformatics Institute & ID Labs, Agency for Science Technology and Research, Singapore, Singapore
| | - Houriiyah Tegally
- KwaZulu-Natal Research Innovation and Sequencing Platform (KRISP), School of Laboratory Medicine and Medical Sciences, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa
- Centre for Epidemic Response and Innovation (CERI), School of Data Science and Computational Thinking, Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, South Africa
| | - George Githinji
- KEMRI-Wellcome Trust Research Programme, Kilifi, Kenya
- Department of Biochemistry and Biotechnology, Pwani University, Kilifi, Kenya
| | - Charles N Agoti
- KEMRI-Wellcome Trust Research Programme, Kilifi, Kenya
- School of Health and Human Sciences, Pwani University, Kilifi, Kenya
| | - Lucy E Matkin
- Department of Biology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Charles Whittaker
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK
- The Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Benjamin P Howden
- Microbiological Diagnostic Unit Public Health Laboratory, Department of Microbiology and Immunology, The University of Melbourne at The Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
| | - Vitali Sintchenko
- Sydney Institute for Infectious Diseases, The University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
- Institute of Clinical Pathology and Medical Research, NSW Health Pathology, Westmead, NSW, Australia
| | - Neta S Zuckerman
- Central Virology Laboratory, Israel Ministry of Health, Sheba Medical Center, Ramat Gan, Israel
| | - Orna Mor
- Central Virology Laboratory, Israel Ministry of Health, Sheba Medical Center, Ramat Gan, Israel
| | - Heather M Blankenship
- Michigan Department of Health and Human Services, Bureau of Laboratories, Lansing, MI, USA
| | - Tulio de Oliveira
- KwaZulu-Natal Research Innovation and Sequencing Platform (KRISP), School of Laboratory Medicine and Medical Sciences, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa
- Centre for Epidemic Response and Innovation (CERI), School of Data Science and Computational Thinking, Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, South Africa
- Centre for the AIDS Programme of Research in South Africa (CAPRISA), Durban, South Africa
- Department of Global Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Raymond T P Lin
- National Centre for Infectious Diseases, Singapore, Singapore
| | - Marilda Mendonça Siqueira
- Laboratory of Respiratory Viruses and Measles, Instituto Oswaldo Cruz, FIOCRUZ, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
| | - Paola Cristina Resende
- Laboratory of Respiratory Viruses and Measles, Instituto Oswaldo Cruz, FIOCRUZ, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
| | - Ana Tereza R Vasconcelos
- Laboratório de Bioinformática, Laboratório Nacional de Computação Científica, Petrópolis, Brazil
| | - Fernando R Spilki
- Feevale University, Institute of Health Sciences, Novo Hamburgo, RS, Brazil
| | - Renato Santana Aguiar
- Laboratório de Biologia Integrativa, Departamento de Genética, Ecologia e Evolução, Instituto de Ciências Biológicas, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Brazil
- Instituto D'Or de Pesquisa e Ensino (IDOR), Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
| | - Ivailo Alexiev
- National Center of Infectious and Parasitic Diseases, Sofia, Bulgaria
| | - Ivan N Ivanov
- National Center of Infectious and Parasitic Diseases, Sofia, Bulgaria
| | - Ivva Philipova
- National Center of Infectious and Parasitic Diseases, Sofia, Bulgaria
| | - Christine V F Carrington
- Department of Preclinical Sciences, Faculty of Medical Sciences, The University of the West Indies, St. Augustine, Trinidad and Tobago
| | - Nikita S D Sahadeo
- Department of Preclinical Sciences, Faculty of Medical Sciences, The University of the West Indies, St. Augustine, Trinidad and Tobago
| | - Ben Branda
- GISAID Global Data Science Initiative, Munich, Germany
| | - Céline Gurry
- GISAID Global Data Science Initiative, Munich, Germany
| | - Sebastian Maurer-Stroh
- GISAID Global Data Science Initiative, Munich, Germany
- Bioinformatics Institute & ID Labs, Agency for Science Technology and Research, Singapore, Singapore
- National Centre for Infectious Diseases, Singapore, Singapore
| | - Dhamari Naidoo
- Health Emergencies Programme, World Health Organization Regional Office for South-East Asia, New Delhi, India
| | - Karin J von Eije
- Department of Medical Microbiology and Infection Prevention, Division of Clinical Virology, University of Groningen, University Medical Center Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands
- Emerging Diseases and Zoonoses Unit, Health Emergencies Programme, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Mark D Perkins
- Emerging Diseases and Zoonoses Unit, Health Emergencies Programme, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Maria van Kerkhove
- Emerging Diseases and Zoonoses Unit, Health Emergencies Programme, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
| | | | - Ester C Sabino
- Instituto Todos pela Saúde, São Paulo, SP, Brazil
- Instituto de Medicina Tropical, Faculdade de Medicina da Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil
| | - Oliver G Pybus
- Department of Biology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
- Royal Veterinary College, Hawkshead, UK
| | | | - Samir Bhatt
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK
- The Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK
- Section of Epidemiology, Department of Public Health, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Seth Flaxman
- Department of Computer Science, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Marc A Suchard
- Department of Computational Medicine, David Geffen School of Medicine, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, USA
- Department of Biostatistics, Fielding School of Public Health, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, USA
- Department of Human Genetics, David Geffen School of Medicine, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, USA
| | - Nathan D Grubaugh
- Department of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USA
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA
| | - Guy Baele
- Department of Microbiology, Immunology and Transplantation, Rega Institute, KU Leuven, Leuven, Belgium
| | - Nuno R Faria
- Department of Biology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.
- The Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.
- Instituto de Medicina Tropical, Faculdade de Medicina da Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil.
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Han AX, Toporowski A, Sacks JA, Perkins MD, Briand S, van Kerkhove M, Hannay E, Carmona S, Rodriguez B, Parker E, Nichols BE, Russell CA. SARS-CoV-2 diagnostic testing rates determine the sensitivity of genomic surveillance programs. medRxiv 2022:2022.05.20.22275319. [PMID: 35664998 PMCID: PMC9164450 DOI: 10.1101/2022.05.20.22275319] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/21/2023]
Abstract
The first step in SARS-CoV-2 genomic surveillance is testing to identify infected people. However, global testing rates are falling as we emerge from the acute health emergency and remain low in many low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) (mean = 27 tests/100,000 people/day). We simulated COVID-19 epidemics in a prototypical LMIC to investigate how testing rates, sampling strategies, and sequencing proportions jointly impact surveillance outcomes and showed that low testing rates and spatiotemporal biases delay time-to-detection of new variants by weeks-to-months and can lead to unreliable estimates of variant prevalence even when the proportion of samples sequenced is increased. Accordingly, investments in wider access to diagnostics to support testing rates of ~100 tests/100,000 people/day could enable more timely detection of new variants and reliable estimates of variant prevalence. The performance of global SARS-CoV-2 genomic surveillance programs is fundamentally limited by access to diagnostic testing.
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Affiliation(s)
- Alvin X. Han
- Department of Medical Microbiology & Infection Prevention, Amsterdam University Medical Center, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands,Corresponding authors. and
| | - Amy Toporowski
- Foundation for Innovative New Diagnostics (FIND), Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Jilian A. Sacks
- Department of Epidemic and Pandemic Preparedness and Prevention, Emergency Preparedness Programme, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Mark D. Perkins
- Department of Epidemic and Pandemic Preparedness and Prevention, Emergency Preparedness Programme, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Sylvie Briand
- Department of Epidemic and Pandemic Preparedness and Prevention, Emergency Preparedness Programme, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Maria van Kerkhove
- Department of Epidemic and Pandemic Preparedness and Prevention, Emergency Preparedness Programme, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Emma Hannay
- Foundation for Innovative New Diagnostics (FIND), Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Sergio Carmona
- Foundation for Innovative New Diagnostics (FIND), Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Bill Rodriguez
- Foundation for Innovative New Diagnostics (FIND), Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Edyth Parker
- Department of Immunology and Microbiology, The Scripps Research Institute, La Jolla, CA, USA
| | - Brooke E. Nichols
- Department of Medical Microbiology & Infection Prevention, Amsterdam University Medical Center, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands,Foundation for Innovative New Diagnostics (FIND), Geneva, Switzerland,Department of Global Health, School of Public Health, Boston University, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Colin A. Russell
- Department of Medical Microbiology & Infection Prevention, Amsterdam University Medical Center, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands,Department of Global Health, School of Public Health, Boston University, Boston, MA, USA,Corresponding authors. and
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Brito AF, Semenova E, Dudas G, Hassler GW, Kalinich CC, Kraemer MU, Ho J, Tegally H, Githinji G, Agoti CN, Matkin LE, Whittaker C, Howden BP, Sintchenko V, Zuckerman NS, Mor O, Blankenship HM, de Oliveira T, Lin RTP, Siqueira MM, Resende PC, Vasconcelos ATR, Spilki FR, Aguiar RS, Alexiev I, Ivanov IN, Philipova I, Carrington CVF, Sahadeo NSD, Gurry C, Maurer-Stroh S, Naidoo D, von Eije KJ, Perkins MD, van Kerkhove M, Hill SC, Sabino EC, Pybus OG, Dye C, Bhatt S, Flaxman S, Suchard MA, Grubaugh ND, Baele G, Faria NR. Global disparities in SARS-CoV-2 genomic surveillance. medRxiv 2021:2021.08.21.21262393. [PMID: 34462754 PMCID: PMC8404891 DOI: 10.1101/2021.08.21.21262393] [Citation(s) in RCA: 39] [Impact Index Per Article: 13.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/27/2022]
Abstract
Genomic sequencing provides critical information to track the evolution and spread of SARS-CoV-2, optimize molecular tests, treatments and vaccines, and guide public health responses. To investigate the spatiotemporal heterogeneity in the global SARS-CoV-2 genomic surveillance, we estimated the impact of sequencing intensity and turnaround times (TAT) on variant detection in 167 countries. Most countries submit genomes >21 days after sample collection, and 77% of low and middle income countries sequenced <0.5% of their cases. We found that sequencing at least 0.5% of the cases, with a TAT <21 days, could be a benchmark for SARS-CoV-2 genomic surveillance efforts. Socioeconomic inequalities substantially impact our ability to quickly detect SARS-CoV-2 variants, and undermine the global pandemic preparedness.
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Affiliation(s)
- Anderson F. Brito
- Department of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, Connecticut, USA
- Instituto Todos pela Saúde, São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil
| | - Elizaveta Semenova
- Department of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, Connecticut, USA
- Department of Mathematics, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Gytis Dudas
- Department of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, Connecticut, USA
- Gothenburg Global Biodiversity Centre, Gothenburg, Sweden
| | - Gabriel W. Hassler
- Department of Computational Medicine, David Geffen School of Medicine, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California, USA
| | - Chaney C. Kalinich
- Department of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, Connecticut, USA
- Yale School of Medicine, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut, USA
| | | | - Joses Ho
- GISAID Global Data Science Initiative, Munich, Germany
- Bioinformatics Institute & ID Labs, Agency for Science Technology and Research, Singapore, Singapore
| | - Houriiyah Tegally
- KwaZulu–Natal Research Innovation and Sequencing Platform (KRISP), School of Laboratory Medicine and Medical Sciences, University of KwaZulu–Natal, Durban, South Africa
| | - George Githinji
- KEMRI-Wellcome Trust Research Programme, Kenya
- Department of Biochemistry and Biotechnology, Pwani University, Kenya
| | | | - Lucy E. Matkin
- Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Charles Whittaker
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
- The Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
| | | | | | | | | | - Benjamin P Howden
- Microbiological Diagnostic Unit Public Health Laboratory, Department of Microbiology and Immunology, The University of Melbourne at The Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
| | - Vitali Sintchenko
- Sydney Institute for Infectious Diseases, The University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
- Institute of Clinical Pathology and Medical Research, NSW Health Pathology, Westmead, New South Wales 2145, Australia
| | - Neta S. Zuckerman
- Central Virology Laboratory, Israel Ministry of Health, Sheba Medical Center, Israel
| | - Orna Mor
- Central Virology Laboratory, Israel Ministry of Health, Sheba Medical Center, Israel
| | - Heather M Blankenship
- Michigan Department of Health and Human Services, Bureau of Laboratories, Lansing, Michigan, USA
| | - Tulio de Oliveira
- KwaZulu–Natal Research Innovation and Sequencing Platform (KRISP), School of Laboratory Medicine and Medical Sciences, University of KwaZulu–Natal, Durban, South Africa
- Centre for Epidemic Response and Innovation (CERI), School of Data Science and Computational Thinking, Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, South Africa
- Centre for the AIDS Programme of Research in South Africa (CAPRISA), Durban, South Africa
- Department of Global Health, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | | | | | | | | | - Fernando R. Spilki
- Feevale University, Institute of Health Sciences, Novo Hamburgo, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil
| | - Renato Santana Aguiar
- Laboratório de Biologia Integrativa, Departamento de Genética, Ecologia e Evolução, Instituto de Ciências Biológicas, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Brazil
- Instituto D’Or de Pesquisa e Ensino (IDOR), Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
| | - Ivailo Alexiev
- National Center of Infectious and Parasitic Diseases, Sofia, Bulgaria
| | - Ivan N. Ivanov
- National Center of Infectious and Parasitic Diseases, Sofia, Bulgaria
| | - Ivva Philipova
- National Center of Infectious and Parasitic Diseases, Sofia, Bulgaria
| | - Christine V. F. Carrington
- Department of Preclinical Sciences, Faculty of Medical Sciences, The University of the West Indies, St. Augustine, Trinidad and Tobago
| | - Nikita S. D. Sahadeo
- Department of Preclinical Sciences, Faculty of Medical Sciences, The University of the West Indies, St. Augustine, Trinidad and Tobago
| | - Céline Gurry
- GISAID Global Data Science Initiative, Munich, Germany
| | - Sebastian Maurer-Stroh
- GISAID Global Data Science Initiative, Munich, Germany
- Bioinformatics Institute & ID Labs, Agency for Science Technology and Research, Singapore, Singapore
- National Centre for Infectious Diseases, Singapore
| | - Dhamari Naidoo
- Health Emergencies Programme, World Health Organization Regional Office for South-East Asia, New Delhi, India
| | - Karin J von Eije
- Department of Medical Microbiology and Infection Prevention, Division of Clinical Virology, University Medical Center Groningen, University of Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands
- Emerging Diseases and Zoonoses Unit, Health Emergencies Programme, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Mark D. Perkins
- Emerging Diseases and Zoonoses Unit, Health Emergencies Programme, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Maria van Kerkhove
- Emerging Diseases and Zoonoses Unit, Health Emergencies Programme, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
| | | | - Ester C. Sabino
- Instituto de Medicina Tropical, Faculdade de Medicina da Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil
| | - Oliver G. Pybus
- Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
- Royal Veterinary College, Hawkshead, United Kingdom
| | - Christopher Dye
- Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Samir Bhatt
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
- The Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
- Section of Epidemiology, Department of Public Health, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Seth Flaxman
- Department of Computer Science, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Marc A. Suchard
- Department of Computational Medicine, David Geffen School of Medicine, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California, USA
- Department of Biostatistics, Fielding School of Public Health, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California, USA
- Department of Human Genetics, David Geffen School of Medicine, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California, USA
| | - Nathan D. Grubaugh
- Department of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, Connecticut, USA
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut, USA
| | - Guy Baele
- Department of Microbiology, Immunology and Transplantation, Rega Institute, KU Leuven, Leuven, Belgium
| | - Nuno R. Faria
- Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
- Sydney Institute for Infectious Diseases, The University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
- Instituto de Medicina Tropical, Faculdade de Medicina da Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil
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