Comparing the evolutionary dynamics of predominant SARS-CoV-2 virus lineages co-circulating in Mexico

Spatial scales of COVID-19 transmission in Mexico

During outbreaks of emerging infectious diseases, internationally connected cities often experience large and early outbreaks, while rural regions follow after some delay. This hierarchical structure of disease spread is influenced primarily by the multiscale structure of human mobility. However, during the COVID-19 epidemic, public health responses typically did not take into consideration the explicit spatial structure of human mobility when designing nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). NPIs were applied primarily at national or regional scales. Here, we use weekly anonymized and aggregated human mobility data and spatially highly resolved data on COVID-19 cases at the municipality level in Mexico to investigate how behavioral changes in response to the pandemic have altered the spatial scales of transmission and interventions during its first wave (March-June 2020). We find that the epidemic dynamics in Mexico were initially driven by exports of COVID-19 cases from Mexico State and Mexico City, where early outbreaks occurred. The mobility network shifted after the implementation of interventions in late March 2020, and the mobility network communities became more disjointed while epidemics in these communities became increasingly synchronized. Our results provide dynamic insights into how to use network science and epidemiological modeling to inform the spatial scale at which interventions are most impactful in mitigating the spread of COVID-19 and infectious diseases in general.

Dispersion patterns of SARS-CoV-2 variants Gamma, Lambda and Mu in Latin America and the Caribbean

Latin America and Caribbean (LAC) regions were an important epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic and SARS-CoV-2 evolution. Through the COVID-19 Genomic Surveillance Regional Network (COVIGEN), LAC countries produced an important number of genomic sequencing data that made possible an enhanced SARS-CoV-2 genomic surveillance capacity in the Americas, paving the way for characterization of emerging variants and helping to guide the public health response. In this study we analyzed approximately 300,000 SARS-CoV-2 sequences generated between February 2020 and March 2022 by multiple genomic surveillance efforts in LAC and reconstructed the diffusion patterns of the main variants of concern (VOCs) and of interest (VOIs) possibly originated in the Region. Our phylogenetic analysis revealed that the spread of variants Gamma, Lambda and Mu reflects human mobility patterns due to variations of international air passenger transportation and gradual lifting of social distance measures previously implemented in countries. Our results highlight the potential of genetic data to reconstruct viral spread and unveil preferential routes of viral migrations that are shaped by human mobility patterns.

Mobility networks in Greater Mexico City

Based on more than 11 billion geolocated cell phone records from 33 million different devices, daily mobility networks were constructed over a 15-month period for Greater Mexico City, one of the largest and most diverse metropolitan areas globally. The time frame considered spans the entire year of 2020 and the first three months of 2021, enabling the analysis of population movement dynamics before, during, and after the COVID-19 health contingency. The nodes within the 456 networks represent the basic statistical geographic areas (AGEBs) established by the National Institute of Statistics, Geography, and Informatics (INEGI) in Mexico. This framework facilitates the integration of mobility data with numerous indicators provided by INEGI. Edges connecting these nodes represent movement between AGEBs, with edge weights indicating the volume of trips from one AGEB to another. This extensive dataset allows researchers to uncover travel patterns, cross-reference data with socio-economic indicators, and conduct segregation studies, among other potential analyses.

Genetic insights into the microevolutionary dynamics and early introductions of human monkeypox virus in Mexico

The recent global outbreak of mpox, caused by monkeypox virus (MPV) emerged in Europe in 2022 and rapidly spread to over 40 countries. The Americas are currently facing the highest impact, reporting over 50,000 cases by early 2023. In this study, we analyzed 880 MPV isolates worldwide to gain insights into the evolutionary patterns and initial introduction events of the virus in Mexico. We found that MPV entered Mexico on multiple occasions, from the United Kingdom, Portugal, and Canada, and subsequently spread locally in different regions of Mexico. Additionally, we show that MPV has an open pangenome, highlighting the role of gene turnover in shaping its genomic diversity, rather than single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), which do not contribute significantly to genome diversity. Although the genome contains multiple SNPs in coding regions, these remain under purifying selection, suggesting their evolutionary conservation. One notable exception is amino acid position 63 of the protein encoded by the Cop-A4L gene, which is intricately related to viral maturity, which we found to be under strong positive selection. Ancestral state reconstruction indicated that the ancestral state at position 63 corresponds to the amino acid valine, which is present only in isolates of clade I. However, the isolates from the current outbreak contained threonine at position 63. Our findings contribute new information about the evolution of monkeypox virus.

SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variants BA.4 and BA.5 dominated the fifth COVID-19 epidemiological wave in Mexico

In Mexico, the BA.4 and BA.5 Omicron variants dominated the fifth epidemic wave (summer 2022), superseding BA.2, which had circulated during the inter-wave period. The present study uses genome sequencing and statistical and phylogenetic analyses to examine these variants' abundance, distribution, and genetic diversity in Mexico from April to August 2022. Over 35 % of the sequenced genomes in this period corresponded to the BA.2 variant, 8 % to the BA.4 and 56 % to the BA.5 variant. Multiple subvariants were identified, but the most abundant, BA.2.9, BA.2.12.1, BA.5.1, BA.5.2, BA.5.2.1 and BA.4.1, circulated across the entire country, not forming geographical clusters. Contrastingly, other subvariants exhibited a geographically restricted distribution, most notably in the Southeast region, which showed a distinct subvariant dynamic. This study supports previous results showing that this region may be a significant entry point and contributed to introducing and evolving novel variants in Mexico. Furthermore, a differential distribution was observed for certain subvariants among specific States through time, which may have contributed to the overall increased diversity observed during this wave compared to the previous ones. This study highlights the importance of sustaining genomic surveillance to identify novel variants that may impact public health.