Graph data science and machine learning for the detection of COVID-19 infection from symptoms

Towards Improved XAI-Based Epidemiological Research into the Next Potential Pandemic

By applying AI techniques to a variety of pandemic-relevant data, artificial intelligence (AI) has substantially supported the control of the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Along with this, epidemiological machine learning studies of SARS-CoV-2 have been frequently published. While these models can be perceived as precise and policy-relevant to guide governments towards optimal containment policies, their black box nature can hamper building trust and relying confidently on the prescriptions proposed. This paper focuses on interpretable AI-based epidemiological models in the context of the recent SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. We systematically review existing studies, which jointly incorporate AI, SARS-CoV-2 epidemiology, and explainable AI approaches (XAI). First, we propose a conceptual framework by synthesizing the main methodological features of the existing AI pipelines of SARS-CoV-2. Upon the proposed conceptual framework and by analyzing the selected epidemiological studies, we reflect on current research gaps in epidemiological AI toolboxes and how to fill these gaps to generate enhanced policy support in the next potential pandemic.

Algorithms for predicting COVID outcome using ready-to-use laboratorial and clinical data

The pandemic caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is an emerging crisis affecting the public health system. The clinical features of COVID-19 can range from an asymptomatic state to acute respiratory syndrome and multiple organ dysfunction. Although some hematological and biochemical parameters are altered during moderate and severe COVID-19, there is still a lack of tools to combine these parameters to predict the clinical outcome of a patient with COVID-19. Thus, this study aimed at employing hematological and biochemical parameters of patients diagnosed with COVID-19 in order to build machine learning algorithms for predicting COVID mortality or survival. Patients included in the study had a diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2 infection confirmed by RT-PCR and biochemical and hematological measurements were performed in three different time points upon hospital admission. Among the parameters evaluated, the ones that stand out the most are the important features of the T1 time point (urea, lymphocytes, glucose, basophils and age), which could be possible biomarkers for the severity of COVID-19 patients. This study shows that urea is the parameter that best classifies patient severity and rises over time, making it a crucial analyte to be used in machine learning algorithms to predict patient outcome. In this study optimal and medically interpretable machine learning algorithms for outcome prediction are presented for each time point. It was found that urea is the most paramount variable for outcome prediction over all three time points. However, the order of importance of other variables changes for each time point, demonstrating the importance of a dynamic approach for an effective patient's outcome prediction. All in all, the use of machine learning algorithms can be a defining tool for laboratory monitoring and clinical outcome prediction, which may bring benefits to public health in future pandemics with newly emerging and reemerging SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern.

Novel graph-based machine-learning technique for viral infectious diseases: application to influenza and hepatitis diseases

BACKGROUND

Most infectious diseases are caused by viruses, fungi, bacteria and parasites. Their ability to easily infect humans and trigger large-scale epidemics makes them a public health concern. Methods for early detection of these diseases have been developed; however, they are hindered by the absence of a unified, interoperable and reusable model. This study seeks to create a holistic and real-time model for swift, preliminary detection of infectious diseases using symptoms and additional clinical data.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

In this study, we present a medical knowledge graph (MKG) that leverages multiple data sources to analyse connections between different nodes. Medical ontologies were used to enhance the MKG. We applied various graph algorithms to extract key features. The performance of multiple machine-learning (ML) techniques for influenza and hepatitis detection was assessed, selecting multi-layer perceptron (MLP) and random forest (RF) models due to their superior outcomes. The hyperparameters of both graph-based ML models were automatically fine-tuned.

RESULTS

Both the graph-based MLP and RF models showcased the least loss and error rates, along with the most specific, accurate recall, precision and F1 scores. Their Matthews correlation coefficients were also optimal. When compared with existing ML techniques and findings from the literature, these graph-based ML models manifested superior detection accuracy.

CONCLUSIONS

The graph-based MLP and RF models effectively diagnosed influenza and hepatitis, respectively. This underlines the potential of graph data science in enhancing ML model performance and uncovering concealed relationships in the MKG.