Enhancing physicians' radiology diagnostics of COVID-19's effects on lung health by leveraging artificial intelligence

Introduction: This study aimed to develop an individualized artificial intelligence model to help radiologists assess the severity of COVID-19's effects on patients' lung health. Methods: Data was collected from medical records of 1103 patients diagnosed with COVID-19 using RT- qPCR between March and June 2020, in Hospital Madrid-Group (HM-Group, Spain). By using Convolutional Neural Networks, we determine the effects of COVID-19 in terms of lung area, opacities, and pulmonary air density. We then combine these variables with age and sex in a regression model to assess the severity of these conditions with respect to fatality risk (death or ICU). Results: Our model can predict high effect with an AUC of 0.736. Finally, we compare the performance of the model with respect to six physicians' diagnosis, and test for improvements on physicians' performance when using the prediction algorithm. Discussion: We find that the algorithm outperforms physicians (39.5% less error), and thus, physicians can significantly benefit from the information provided by the algorithm by reducing error by almost 30%.

The Effect of Health and Economic Costs on Governments' Policy Responses to COVID-19 Crisis under Incomplete Information

The COVID-19 pandemic has become an unprecedented health, economic, and social crisis. The present study has built a theoretical model and used it to develop an empirical strategy, analyzing the drivers of policy-response agility during the outbreak. Our empirical results show that national policy responses were delayed, both by government expectations of the healthcare system capacity and by expectations that any hard measures used to manage the crisis would entail severe economic costs. With decision-making based on incomplete information, the agility of national policy responses increased as knowledge increased and uncertainty decreased in relation to the epidemic's evolution and the policy responses of other countries.

A Predictive Model and Risk Factors for Case Fatality of COVID-19

This study aimed to create an individualized analysis model of the risk of intensive care unit (ICU) admission or death for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients as a tool for the rapid clinical management of hospitalized patients in order to achieve a resilience of medical resources. This is an observational, analytical, retrospective cohort study with longitudinal follow-up. Data were collected from the medical records of 3489 patients diagnosed with COVID-19 using RT-qPCR in the period of highest community transmission recorded in Europe to date: February-June 2020. The study was carried out in in two health areas of hospital care in the Madrid region: the central area of the Madrid capital (Hospitales de Madrid del Grupo HM Hospitales (CH-HM), n = 1931) and the metropolitan area of Madrid (Hospital Universitario Príncipe de Asturias (MH-HUPA) n = 1558). By using a regression model, we observed how the different patient variables had unequal importance. Among all the analyzed variables, basal oxygen saturation was found to have the highest relative importance with a value of 20.3%, followed by age (17.7%), lymphocyte/leukocyte ratio (14.4%), CRP value (12.5%), comorbidities (12.5%), and leukocyte count (8.9%). Three levels of risk of ICU/death were established: low-risk level (<5%), medium-risk level (5-20%), and high-risk level (>20%). At the high-risk level, 13% needed ICU admission, 29% died, and 37% had an ICU-death outcome. This predictive model allowed us to individualize the risk for worse outcome for hospitalized patients affected by COVID-19.