Impact of COVID-19 on mortality in coastal Kenya: a longitudinal open cohort study

The mortality impact of COVID-19 in Africa remains controversial because most countries lack vital registration. We analysed excess mortality in Kilifi Health and Demographic Surveillance System, Kenya, using 9 years of baseline data. SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence studies suggest most adults here were infected before May 2022. During 5 waves of COVID-19 (April 2020-May 2022) an overall excess mortality of 4.8% (95% PI 1.2%, 9.4%) concealed a significant excess (11.6%, 95% PI 5.9%, 18.9%) among older adults ( ≥ 65 years) and a deficit among children aged 1-14 years (-7.7%, 95% PI -20.9%, 6.9%). The excess mortality rate for January 2020-December 2021, age-standardised to the Kenyan population, was 27.4/100,000 person-years (95% CI 23.2-31.6). In Coastal Kenya, excess mortality during the pandemic was substantially lower than in most high-income countries but the significant excess mortality in older adults emphasizes the value of achieving high vaccine coverage in this risk group.

Quantifying previous SARS-CoV-2 infection through mixture modelling of antibody levels

As countries decide on vaccination strategies and how to ease movement restrictions, estimating the proportion of the population previously infected with SARS-CoV-2 is important for predicting the future burden of COVID-19. This proportion is usually estimated from serosurvey data in two steps: first the proportion above a threshold antibody level is calculated, then the crude estimate is adjusted using external estimates of sensitivity and specificity. A drawback of this approach is that the PCR-confirmed cases used to estimate the sensitivity of the threshold may not be representative of cases in the wider population-e.g., they may be more recently infected and more severely symptomatic. Mixture modelling offers an alternative approach that does not require external data from PCR-confirmed cases. Here we illustrate the bias in the standard threshold-based approach by comparing both approaches using data from several Kenyan serosurveys. We show that the mixture model analysis produces estimates of previous infection that are often substantially higher than the standard threshold analysis.

The effects of aflatoxin exposure on Hepatitis B-vaccine induced immunity in Kenyan children

BACKGROUND

Globally, approximately three million children die each year from vaccine preventable infectious diseases mainly in developing countries. Despite the success of the expanded immunization program, not all infants and children around the world develop the same protective immune response to the same vaccine. A vaccine must induce a response over the basal immune response that may be driven by population-specific, environmental or socio-economic factors. Mycotoxins like aflatoxins are immune suppressants that are confirmed to interfere with both cell-mediated and acquired immunity. The mechanism of aflatoxin toxicity is through the binding of the bio-activated AFB1-8, 9-epoxide to cellular macromolecules.

METHODS

We studied Hepatitis B surface antibodies [anti-HBs] levels to explore the immune modulation effects of dietary exposure to aflatoxins in children aged between one and fourteen years in Kenya. Hepatitis B vaccine was introduced for routine administration for Kenyan infants in November 2001. To assess the effects of aflatoxin on immunogenicity of childhood vaccines Aflatoxin B1-lysine in blood serum samples were determined using High Performance Liquid Chromatography with Fluorescence detection while anti-HBs were measured using Bio-ELISA anti-HBs kit.

RESULTS

The mean ± SD of AFB1-lysine adducts in our study population was 45.38 ± 87.03 pg/mg of albumin while the geometric mean was 20.40 pg/mg. The distribution of AFB1-lysine adducts was skewed to the right. Only 98/205 (47.8%) of the study population tested positive for Hepatitis B surface antibodies. From regression analysis, we noted that for every unit rise in serum aflatoxin level, anti-HBs dropped by 0.91 mIU/ml (-0.9110038; 95% C.I -1.604948, -0.21706).

CONCLUSION

Despite high coverage of routine immunization, less than half of the study population had developed immunity to HepB. Exposure to aflatoxin was high and weakly associated with low anti-HBs antibodies. These findings highlight a potentially significant role for environmental factors that may contribute to vaccine effectiveness warranting further research.