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Mukul SA, Alamgir M, Sohel MSI, Pert PL, Herbohn J, Turton SM, Khan MSI, Munim SA, Reza AHMA, Laurance WF. Combined effects of climate change and sea-level rise project dramatic habitat loss of the globally endangered Bengal tiger in the Bangladesh Sundarbans. Sci Total Environ 2019; 663:830-840. [PMID: 30738263 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.01.383] [Citation(s) in RCA: 31] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/29/2018] [Revised: 01/28/2019] [Accepted: 01/28/2019] [Indexed: 06/09/2023]
Abstract
The Sundarbans, in southern coastal Bangladesh, is the world's largest surviving mangrove habitat and the last stronghold of tiger adapted to living in a mangrove ecosystem. Using MaxEnt (maximum entropy modeling), current distribution data, land-use/land cover and bioclimatic variables, we modeled the likely future distribution of the globally endangered Bengal tiger (Panthera tigris tigris) in the Bangladesh Sundarbans. We used two climatic scenarios (i.e., RCP6.0 and RCP8.5) developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to provide projections of suitable habitats of Bengal tigers in 2050 and 2070. We also combined projected sea-level rise for the area in our models of future species distributions. Our results suggest that there will be a dramatic decline in suitable Bengal tiger habitats in the Bangladesh Sundarbans. Other than various aspects of local climate, sea-level rise is projected to have a substantial negative impact on Bengal tiger habitats in this low-lying area. Our model predicts that due to the combined effect of climate change and sea-level rise, there will be no suitable Bengal tiger habitat remaining in the Sundarbans by 2070. Enhancing terrestrial protected area coverage, regular monitoring, law enforcement, awareness-building among local residents among the key strategies needed to ensure long-term survival and conservation of the Bengal tiger in the Bangladesh Sundarbans.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sharif A Mukul
- Department of Environmental Management, School of Environmental Science and Management, Independent University Bangladesh, Bashundhara R/A, Dhaka 1229, Bangladesh; Tropical Forests and People Research Centre, University of the Sunshine Coast, Maroochydore DC, QLD 4558, Australia; Tropical Forestry Group, School of Agriculture and Food Sciences, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, QLD 4072, Australia.
| | - Mohammed Alamgir
- Centre for Tropical Environmental and Sustainability Science, College of Science and Engineering, James Cook University, Cairns, QLD 4878, Australia; Institute of Forestry and Environmental Sciences, University of Chittagong, Chittagong 4331, Bangladesh
| | - Md Shawkat I Sohel
- Tropical Forests and People Research Centre, University of the Sunshine Coast, Maroochydore DC, QLD 4558, Australia; Tropical Forestry Group, School of Agriculture and Food Sciences, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, QLD 4072, Australia
| | | | - John Herbohn
- Tropical Forests and People Research Centre, University of the Sunshine Coast, Maroochydore DC, QLD 4558, Australia; Tropical Forestry Group, School of Agriculture and Food Sciences, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, QLD 4072, Australia
| | | | - Md Saiful I Khan
- Department of Zoology, Otago University, Dundedin 9054, New Zealand
| | - Shifath Ahmed Munim
- Department of Environmental Management, School of Environmental Science and Management, Independent University Bangladesh, Bashundhara R/A, Dhaka 1229, Bangladesh
| | - A H M Ali Reza
- Department of Biological Sciences, Delta State University, Cleveland, MS 38733, USA
| | - William F Laurance
- Centre for Tropical Environmental and Sustainability Science, College of Science and Engineering, James Cook University, Cairns, QLD 4878, Australia
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