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Monangi NK, Xu H, Fan YM, Khanam R, Khan W, Deb S, Pervin J, Price JT, Kaur L, Al Mahmud A, Thanh LQ, Care A, Landero JA, Combs GF, Belling E, Chappell J, Chen J, Kong F, Lacher C, Ahmed S, Chowdhury NH, Rahman S, Kabir F, Nisar I, Hotwani A, Mehmood U, Nizar A, Khalid J, Dhingra U, Dutta A, Ali SM, Aftab F, Juma MH, Rahman M, Ahmed T, Islam MM, Vwalika B, Musonda P, Ashorn U, Maleta K, Hallman M, Goodfellow L, Gupta JK, Alfirevic A, Murphy SK, Rand L, Ryckman KK, Murray JC, Bahl R, Litch JA, Baruch-Gravett C, Sopory S, Chandra Mouli Natchu U, Kumar PV, Kumari N, Thiruvengadam R, Singh AK, Kumar P, Alfirevic Z, Baqui AH, Bhatnagar S, Hirst JE, Hoyo C, Jehan F, Jelliffe-Pawlowski L, Rahman A, Roth DE, Sazawal S, Stringer JSA, Ashorn P, Zhang G, Muglia LJ. Association of maternal prenatal copper concentration with gestational duration and preterm birth: a multicountry meta-analysis. Am J Clin Nutr 2024; 119:221-231. [PMID: 37890672 PMCID: PMC10808817 DOI: 10.1016/j.ajcnut.2023.10.011] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/02/2023] [Revised: 09/29/2023] [Accepted: 10/16/2023] [Indexed: 10/29/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Copper (Cu), an essential trace mineral regulating multiple actions of inflammation and oxidative stress, has been implicated in risk for preterm birth (PTB). OBJECTIVES This study aimed to determine the association of maternal Cu concentration during pregnancy with PTB risk and gestational duration in a large multicohort study including diverse populations. METHODS Maternal plasma or serum samples of 10,449 singleton live births were obtained from 18 geographically diverse study cohorts. Maternal Cu concentrations were determined using inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry. The associations of maternal Cu with PTB and gestational duration were analyzed using logistic and linear regressions for each cohort. The estimates were then combined using meta-analysis. Associations between maternal Cu and acute-phase reactants (APRs) and infection status were analyzed in 1239 samples from the Malawi cohort. RESULTS The maternal prenatal Cu concentration in our study samples followed normal distribution with mean of 1.92 μg/mL and standard deviation of 0.43 μg/mL, and Cu concentrations increased with gestational age up to 20 wk. The random-effect meta-analysis across 18 cohorts revealed that 1 μg/mL increase in maternal Cu concentration was associated with higher risk of PTB with odds ratio of 1.30 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.08, 1.57) and shorter gestational duration of 1.64 d (95% CI: 0.56, 2.73). In the Malawi cohort, higher maternal Cu concentration, concentrations of multiple APRs, and infections (malaria and HIV) were correlated and associated with greater risk of PTB and shorter gestational duration. CONCLUSIONS Our study supports robust negative association between maternal Cu and gestational duration and positive association with risk for PTB. Cu concentration was strongly correlated with APRs and infection status suggesting its potential role in inflammation, a pathway implicated in the mechanisms of PTB. Therefore, maternal Cu could be used as potential marker of integrated inflammatory pathways during pregnancy and risk for PTB.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nagendra K Monangi
- Division of Neonatology, Cincinnati Children's Hospital Medical Center, Cincinnati, OH, United States; Center for Prevention of Preterm Birth, Perinatal Institute, Cincinnati Children's Hospital Medical Center and March of Dimes Prematurity Research Center Ohio Collaborative, Cincinnati, Ohio, United States; Department of Pediatrics, University of Cincinnati College of Medicine, Cincinnati, OH, United States.
| | - Huan Xu
- Center for Prevention of Preterm Birth, Perinatal Institute, Cincinnati Children's Hospital Medical Center and March of Dimes Prematurity Research Center Ohio Collaborative, Cincinnati, Ohio, United States; Division of Human Genetics, Cincinnati Children's Hospital Medical Center, Cincinnati, OH, United States
| | - Yue-Mei Fan
- Center for Child, Adolescent and Maternal Health Research, Faculty of Medicine and Health Technology, Tampere University, Tampere, Finland.
| | - Rasheeda Khanam
- International Center for Maternal and Newborn Health, Department of International Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, United States
| | - Waqasuddin Khan
- Biorepository and Omics Research Group, Department of Pediatrics and Child Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, Medical College, Aga Khan University, Karachi, Sindh, Pakistan
| | - Saikat Deb
- Research Division, Public Health Laboratory, Center for Public Health Kinetics, Chake Chake, Tanzania
| | - Jesmin Pervin
- Maternal and Child Health Division, International Centre for Diarrheal Disease Research, Bangladesh, Dhaka District, Bangladesh
| | - Joan T Price
- Obstetrics and Gynecology, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina, United States
| | - Lovejeet Kaur
- Child and Maternal Health Program, Translational Health Science and Technology Institute (THSTI), Faridabad, India
| | - Abdullah Al Mahmud
- Nutrition and Clinical Services Division, International Centre for Diarrheal Disease Research, Bangladesh, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | | | - Angharad Care
- Department of Women's and Children's Health, The University of Liverpool, Liverpool, United Kingdom
| | - Julio A Landero
- Department of Chemistry, University of Cincinnati, Cincinnati, OH, United States
| | - Gerald F Combs
- Jean Mayer USDA Human Nutrition Research Center on Aging, Tufts University, Boston, MA, United States
| | - Elizabeth Belling
- Division of Human Genetics, Cincinnati Children's Hospital Medical Center, Cincinnati, OH, United States
| | - Joanne Chappell
- Division of Human Genetics, Cincinnati Children's Hospital Medical Center, Cincinnati, OH, United States
| | - Jing Chen
- Division of Biomedical Informatics, Cincinnati Children's Hospital Medical Center, Cincinnati, Ohio.
| | - Fansheng Kong
- Division of Human Genetics, Cincinnati Children's Hospital Medical Center, Cincinnati, OH, United States
| | - Craig Lacher
- USDA-ARS, Grand Forks Human Nutrition Research Center, Grand Forks, ND, United States
| | | | | | | | - Furqan Kabir
- Biorepository and Omics Research Group, Department of Pediatrics and Child Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, Medical College, Aga Khan University, Karachi, Sindh, Pakistan
| | - Imran Nisar
- Biorepository and Omics Research Group, Department of Pediatrics and Child Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, Medical College, Aga Khan University, Karachi, Sindh, Pakistan
| | - Aneeta Hotwani
- Biorepository and Omics Research Group, Department of Pediatrics and Child Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, Medical College, Aga Khan University, Karachi, Sindh, Pakistan
| | - Usma Mehmood
- Biorepository and Omics Research Group, Department of Pediatrics and Child Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, Medical College, Aga Khan University, Karachi, Sindh, Pakistan
| | - Ambreen Nizar
- Biorepository and Omics Research Group, Department of Pediatrics and Child Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, Medical College, Aga Khan University, Karachi, Sindh, Pakistan
| | - Javairia Khalid
- Biorepository and Omics Research Group, Department of Pediatrics and Child Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, Medical College, Aga Khan University, Karachi, Sindh, Pakistan
| | - Usha Dhingra
- Center for Public Health Kinetics, New Delhi, India
| | - Arup Dutta
- Center for Public Health Kinetics, New Delhi, India
| | - Said Mohamed Ali
- Research Division, Public Health Laboratory, Center for Public Health Kinetics, Chake Chake, Tanzania
| | - Fahad Aftab
- Research Division, Public Health Laboratory, Center for Public Health Kinetics, Chake Chake, Tanzania
| | - Mohammed Hamad Juma
- Research Division, Public Health Laboratory, Center for Public Health Kinetics, Chake Chake, Tanzania
| | - Monjur Rahman
- Nutrition and Clinical Services Division, International Centre for Diarrheal Disease Research, Bangladesh, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - Tahmeed Ahmed
- Nutrition and Clinical Services Division, International Centre for Diarrheal Disease Research, Bangladesh, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - M Munirul Islam
- Nutrition and Clinical Services Division, International Centre for Diarrheal Disease Research, Bangladesh, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | | | - Patrick Musonda
- School of Public Health, University of Zambia, Lusaka, Zambia
| | - Ulla Ashorn
- Center for Child, Adolescent and Maternal Health Research, Faculty of Medicine and Health Technology, Tampere University, Tampere, Finland
| | - Kenneth Maleta
- School of Public Health and Family Medicine, University of Malawi College of Medicine, Blantyre, Malawi
| | - Mikko Hallman
- School of Public Health and Family Medicine, University of Malawi College of Medicine, Blantyre, Malawi; Medical Research Centre Oulu, PEDEGO Research Unit, University of Oulu, Oulu, Pohjois-Pohjanmaa, Finland
| | - Laura Goodfellow
- Department of Women's and Children's Health, The University of Liverpool, Liverpool, United Kingdom
| | - Juhi K Gupta
- Department of Women's and Children's Health, The University of Liverpool, Liverpool, United Kingdom
| | - Ana Alfirevic
- Department of Women's and Children's Health, The University of Liverpool, Liverpool, United Kingdom
| | - Susan K Murphy
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, NC, United States
| | - Larry Rand
- Department of Obstetrics, Gynecology and Reproductive Sciences, University of California San Francisco School of Medicine, San Francisco, CA, United States
| | - Kelli K Ryckman
- Department of Epidemiology, University of Iowa College of Public Health, Iowa City, IA, United States
| | - Jeffrey C Murray
- Department of Pediatrics, University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA, United States
| | - Rajiv Bahl
- Department of Maternal, Newborn, Child and Adolescent Health, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - James A Litch
- Global Alliance to Prevent Prematurity and Stillbirth, Lynnwood, WA, United States
| | | | - Shailaja Sopory
- Child and Maternal Health Program, Translational Health Science and Technology Institute (THSTI), Faridabad, India
| | | | - Pavitra V Kumar
- Geochronology Group, Inter University Accelerator Centre (IUAC), Delhi, India
| | - Neha Kumari
- Child and Maternal Health Program, Translational Health Science and Technology Institute (THSTI), Faridabad, India
| | - Ramachandran Thiruvengadam
- Child and Maternal Health Program, Translational Health Science and Technology Institute (THSTI), Faridabad, India
| | - Atul Kumar Singh
- Geochronology Group, Inter University Accelerator Centre (IUAC), Delhi, India
| | - Pankaj Kumar
- Geochronology Group, Inter University Accelerator Centre (IUAC), Delhi, India
| | - Zarko Alfirevic
- Department of Women's and Children's Health, The University of Liverpool, Liverpool, United Kingdom
| | - Abdullah H Baqui
- International Center for Maternal and Newborn Health, Department of International Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, United States
| | - Shinjini Bhatnagar
- Child and Maternal Health Program, Translational Health Science and Technology Institute (THSTI), Faridabad, India
| | - Jane E Hirst
- Tu Du Hospital, Ho Chi Ming City, Vietnam; Nuffield Department of Women's & Reproductive Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Cathrine Hoyo
- Department of Biological Sciences and Center for Human Health and the Environment, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, North Carolina, United States
| | - Fyezah Jehan
- Department of Pediatrics and Child Health, Aga Khan University, Karachi, Pakistan
| | - Laura Jelliffe-Pawlowski
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of California San Francisco School of Medicine, San Francisco, CA, United States
| | - Anisur Rahman
- Maternal and Child Health Division, International Centre for Diarrheal Disease Research, Bangladesh, Dhaka District, Bangladesh
| | - Daniel E Roth
- Centre for Global Child Health, Hospital for Sick Children, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada; Department of Pediatrics, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada
| | - Sunil Sazawal
- Research Division, Public Health Laboratory, Center for Public Health Kinetics, Chake Chake, Tanzania; Center for Public Health Kinetics, New Delhi, India
| | - Jeffrey S A Stringer
- Obstetrics and Gynecology, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina, United States
| | - Per Ashorn
- Center for Child, Adolescent and Maternal Health Research, Faculty of Medicine and Health Technology, Tampere University, Tampere, Finland; Department of Pediatrics, Tampere University Hospital, Tampere, Finland
| | - Ge Zhang
- Center for Prevention of Preterm Birth, Perinatal Institute, Cincinnati Children's Hospital Medical Center and March of Dimes Prematurity Research Center Ohio Collaborative, Cincinnati, Ohio, United States; Department of Pediatrics, University of Cincinnati College of Medicine, Cincinnati, OH, United States; Division of Human Genetics, Cincinnati Children's Hospital Medical Center, Cincinnati, OH, United States.
| | - Louis J Muglia
- Center for Prevention of Preterm Birth, Perinatal Institute, Cincinnati Children's Hospital Medical Center and March of Dimes Prematurity Research Center Ohio Collaborative, Cincinnati, Ohio, United States; Department of Pediatrics, University of Cincinnati College of Medicine, Cincinnati, OH, United States; Burroughs Wellcome Fund, Research Triangle Park, NC, United States
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Espinosa CA, Khan W, Khanam R, Das S, Khalid J, Pervin J, Kasaro MP, Contrepois K, Chang AL, Phongpreecha T, Michael B, Ellenberger M, Mehmood U, Hotwani A, Nizar A, Kabir F, Wong RJ, Becker M, Berson E, Culos A, De Francesco D, Mataraso S, Ravindra N, Thuraiappah M, Xenochristou M, Stelzer IA, Marić I, Dutta A, Raqib R, Ahmed S, Rahman S, Hasan ASMT, Ali SM, Juma MH, Rahman M, Aktar S, Deb S, Price JT, Wise PH, Winn VD, Druzin ML, Gibbs RS, Darmstadt GL, Murray JC, Stringer JSA, Gaudilliere B, Snyder MP, Angst MS, Rahman A, Baqui AH, Jehan F, Nisar MI, Vwalika B, Sazawal S, Shaw GM, Stevenson DK, Aghaeepour N. Multiomic signals associated with maternal epidemiological factors contributing to preterm birth in low- and middle-income countries. Sci Adv 2023; 9:eade7692. [PMID: 37224249 DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.ade7692] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/07/2022] [Accepted: 04/20/2023] [Indexed: 05/26/2023]
Abstract
Preterm birth (PTB) is the leading cause of death in children under five, yet comprehensive studies are hindered by its multiple complex etiologies. Epidemiological associations between PTB and maternal characteristics have been previously described. This work used multiomic profiling and multivariate modeling to investigate the biological signatures of these characteristics. Maternal covariates were collected during pregnancy from 13,841 pregnant women across five sites. Plasma samples from 231 participants were analyzed to generate proteomic, metabolomic, and lipidomic datasets. Machine learning models showed robust performance for the prediction of PTB (AUROC = 0.70), time-to-delivery (r = 0.65), maternal age (r = 0.59), gravidity (r = 0.56), and BMI (r = 0.81). Time-to-delivery biological correlates included fetal-associated proteins (e.g., ALPP, AFP, and PGF) and immune proteins (e.g., PD-L1, CCL28, and LIFR). Maternal age negatively correlated with collagen COL9A1, gravidity with endothelial NOS and inflammatory chemokine CXCL13, and BMI with leptin and structural protein FABP4. These results provide an integrated view of epidemiological factors associated with PTB and identify biological signatures of clinical covariates affecting this disease.
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Affiliation(s)
- Camilo A Espinosa
- Department of Anesthesiology, Perioperative and Pain Medicine, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA, USA
- Department of Pediatrics, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA, USA
- Department of Biomedical Data Science, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA, USA
| | - Waqasuddin Khan
- Department of Pediatrics and Child Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, Medical College, The Aga Khan University, Karachi, Pakistan
| | - Rasheda Khanam
- Department of International Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | - Sayan Das
- Centre for Public Health Kinetics, New Delhi, Delhi, India
| | - Javairia Khalid
- Department of Pediatrics and Child Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, Medical College, The Aga Khan University, Karachi, Pakistan
| | - Jesmin Pervin
- Maternal and Child Health Division, International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - Margaret P Kasaro
- University of North Carolina Global Projects Zambia, Lusaka, Zambia
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, University of North Carolina School of Medicine, Chapel Hill, NC, USA
| | - Kévin Contrepois
- Department of Genetics, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA, USA
| | - Alan L Chang
- Department of Anesthesiology, Perioperative and Pain Medicine, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA, USA
- Department of Pediatrics, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA, USA
- Department of Biomedical Data Science, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA, USA
| | - Thanaphong Phongpreecha
- Department of Anesthesiology, Perioperative and Pain Medicine, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA, USA
- Department of Biomedical Data Science, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA, USA
- Department of Pathology, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA, USA
| | - Basil Michael
- Department of Genetics, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA, USA
| | - Mathew Ellenberger
- Department of Genetics, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA, USA
| | - Usma Mehmood
- Department of Pediatrics and Child Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, Medical College, The Aga Khan University, Karachi, Pakistan
| | - Aneeta Hotwani
- Department of Pediatrics and Child Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, Medical College, The Aga Khan University, Karachi, Pakistan
| | - Ambreen Nizar
- Department of Pediatrics and Child Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, Medical College, The Aga Khan University, Karachi, Pakistan
| | - Furqan Kabir
- Department of Pediatrics and Child Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, Medical College, The Aga Khan University, Karachi, Pakistan
| | - Ronald J Wong
- Department of Pediatrics, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA, USA
| | - Martin Becker
- Department of Anesthesiology, Perioperative and Pain Medicine, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA, USA
- Department of Pediatrics, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA, USA
- Department of Biomedical Data Science, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA, USA
| | - Eloise Berson
- Department of Anesthesiology, Perioperative and Pain Medicine, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA, USA
- Department of Biomedical Data Science, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA, USA
- Department of Pathology, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA, USA
| | - Anthony Culos
- Department of Anesthesiology, Perioperative and Pain Medicine, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA, USA
- Department of Pediatrics, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA, USA
- Department of Biomedical Data Science, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA, USA
- Department of Computer Science, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA
| | - Davide De Francesco
- Department of Anesthesiology, Perioperative and Pain Medicine, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA, USA
- Department of Pediatrics, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA, USA
- Department of Biomedical Data Science, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA, USA
| | - Samson Mataraso
- Department of Anesthesiology, Perioperative and Pain Medicine, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA, USA
- Department of Pediatrics, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA, USA
- Department of Biomedical Data Science, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA, USA
| | - Neal Ravindra
- Department of Anesthesiology, Perioperative and Pain Medicine, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA, USA
- Department of Pediatrics, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA, USA
- Department of Biomedical Data Science, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA, USA
| | - Melan Thuraiappah
- Department of Anesthesiology, Perioperative and Pain Medicine, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA, USA
- Department of Pediatrics, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA, USA
- Department of Biomedical Data Science, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA, USA
| | - Maria Xenochristou
- Department of Anesthesiology, Perioperative and Pain Medicine, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA, USA
- Department of Pediatrics, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA, USA
- Department of Biomedical Data Science, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA, USA
| | - Ina A Stelzer
- Department of Anesthesiology, Perioperative and Pain Medicine, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA, USA
| | - Ivana Marić
- Department of Pediatrics, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA, USA
| | - Arup Dutta
- Centre for Public Health Kinetics, New Delhi, Delhi, India
| | - Rubhana Raqib
- International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | | | | | | | - Said M Ali
- Public Health Laboratory-Ivo de Carneri, Pemba, Zanzibar, Tanzania
| | - Mohamed H Juma
- Public Health Laboratory-Ivo de Carneri, Pemba, Zanzibar, Tanzania
| | - Monjur Rahman
- Maternal and Child Health Division, International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - Shaki Aktar
- Maternal and Child Health Division, International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - Saikat Deb
- Centre for Public Health Kinetics, New Delhi, Delhi, India
- Public Health Laboratory-Ivo de Carneri, Pemba, Zanzibar, Tanzania
| | - Joan T Price
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, University of North Carolina School of Medicine, Chapel Hill, NC, USA
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, University of Zambia School of Medicine, Lusaka, Zambia
| | - Paul H Wise
- Department of Pediatrics, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA, USA
| | - Virginia D Winn
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA, USA
| | - Maurice L Druzin
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA, USA
| | - Ronald S Gibbs
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA, USA
| | - Gary L Darmstadt
- Department of Pediatrics, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA, USA
| | - Jeffrey C Murray
- Department of Pediatrics, University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA, USA
| | - Jeffrey S A Stringer
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, University of North Carolina School of Medicine, Chapel Hill, NC, USA
| | - Brice Gaudilliere
- Department of Anesthesiology, Perioperative and Pain Medicine, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA, USA
- Department of Pediatrics, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA, USA
| | - Michael P Snyder
- Department of Genetics, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA, USA
| | - Martin S Angst
- Department of Anesthesiology, Perioperative and Pain Medicine, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA, USA
| | - Anisur Rahman
- Maternal and Child Health Division, International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - Abdullah H Baqui
- Department of International Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | - Fyezah Jehan
- Department of Pediatrics and Child Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, Medical College, The Aga Khan University, Karachi, Pakistan
| | - Muhammad Imran Nisar
- Department of Pediatrics and Child Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, Medical College, The Aga Khan University, Karachi, Pakistan
| | - Bellington Vwalika
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, University of North Carolina School of Medicine, Chapel Hill, NC, USA
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, University of Zambia School of Medicine, Lusaka, Zambia
| | - Sunil Sazawal
- Centre for Public Health Kinetics, New Delhi, Delhi, India
- Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | - Gary M Shaw
- Department of Pediatrics, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA, USA
| | - David K Stevenson
- Department of Pediatrics, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA, USA
| | - Nima Aghaeepour
- Department of Anesthesiology, Perioperative and Pain Medicine, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA, USA
- Department of Pediatrics, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA, USA
- Department of Biomedical Data Science, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA, USA
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3
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Cavallera V, Lancaster G, Gladstone M, Black MM, McCray G, Nizar A, Ahmed S, Dutta A, Anago RKE, Brentani A, Jiang F, Schönbeck Y, McCoy DC, Kariger P, Weber AM, Raikes A, Waldman M, van Buuren S, Kaur R, Pérez Maillard M, Nisar MI, Khanam R, Sazawal S, Zongo A, Pacifico Mercadante M, Zhang Y, Roy AD, Hepworth K, Fink G, Rubio-Codina M, Tofail F, Eekhout I, Seiden J, Norton R, Baqui AH, Khalfan Ali J, Zhao J, Holzinger A, Detmar S, Kembou SN, Begum F, Mohammed Ali S, Jehan F, Dua T, Janus M. Protocol for validation of the Global Scales for Early Development (GSED) for children under 3 years of age in seven countries. BMJ Open 2023; 13:e062562. [PMID: 36693690 PMCID: PMC9884878 DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2022-062562] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/26/2023] Open
Abstract
INTRODUCTION Children's early development is affected by caregiving experiences, with lifelong health and well-being implications. Governments and civil societies need population-based measures to monitor children's early development and ensure that children receive the care needed to thrive. To this end, the WHO developed the Global Scales for Early Development (GSED) to measure children's early development up to 3 years of age. The GSED includes three measures for population and programmatic level measurement: (1) short form (SF) (caregiver report), (2) long form (LF) (direct administration) and (3) psychosocial form (PF) (caregiver report). The primary aim of this protocol is to validate the GSED SF and LF. Secondary aims are to create preliminary reference scores for the GSED SF and LF, validate an adaptive testing algorithm and assess the feasibility and preliminary validity of the GSED PF. METHODS AND ANALYSIS We will conduct the validation in seven countries (Bangladesh, Brazil, Côte d'Ivoire, Pakistan, The Netherlands, People's Republic of China, United Republic of Tanzania), varying in geography, language, culture and income through a 1-year prospective design, combining cross-sectional and longitudinal methods with 1248 children per site, stratified by age and sex. The GSED generates an innovative common metric (Developmental Score: D-score) using the Rasch model and a Development for Age Z-score (DAZ). We will evaluate six psychometric properties of the GSED SF and LF: concurrent validity, predictive validity at 6 months, convergent and discriminant validity, and test-retest and inter-rater reliability. We will evaluate measurement invariance by comparing differential item functioning and differential test functioning across sites. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION This study has received ethical approval from the WHO (protocol GSED validation 004583 20.04.2020) and approval in each site. Study results will be disseminated through webinars and publications from WHO, international organisations, academic journals and conference proceedings. REGISTRATION DETAILS Open Science Framework https://osf.io/ on 19 November 2021 (DOI 10.17605/OSF.IO/KX5T7; identifier: osf-registrations-kx5t7-v1).
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Affiliation(s)
- Vanessa Cavallera
- Department of Mental Health and Substance Use, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
| | | | - Melissa Gladstone
- Department of Women and Children's Health, Institute of Life COurse and Medical Sciences, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK
| | - Maureen M Black
- International Education, RTI International, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina, USA
- Department of Pediatrics, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland, USA
| | | | - Ambreen Nizar
- Department of Paediatrics and Child Health, The Aga Khan University, Karachi, Sindh, Pakistan
| | | | - Arup Dutta
- Center for Public Health Kinetics, CPHK Global, Pemba, Zanzibar, Tanzania
| | | | - Alexandra Brentani
- Department of Pediatrics, University of São Paulo Medical School, São Paulo, Brazil
| | - Fan Jiang
- Shanghai Children's Medical Center Affiliated to Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shangai, People's Republic of China
| | - Yvonne Schönbeck
- Department of Child Health, Netherlands Organization for Applied Scientific Research, Leiden, Netherlands
| | - Dana C McCoy
- Education Policy and Program Evaluation, Harvard Graduate School of Education, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA
| | - Patricia Kariger
- Center for Effective Global Action, University of California Berkeley School of Public Health, Berkeley, California, USA
| | - Ann M Weber
- School of Public Health, University of Nevada Reno, Reno, Nevada, USA
| | - Abbie Raikes
- Health Promotion, University of Nebraska Medical Center College of Public Health, Omaha, Nebraska, USA
| | - Marcus Waldman
- Health Promotion, University of Nebraska Medical Center College of Public Health, Omaha, Nebraska, USA
| | - Stef van Buuren
- Department of Child Health, Netherlands Organization for Applied Scientific Research, Leiden, Netherlands
- Department of Methodology and Statistics, Faculty of Social and Behavioural Sciences, University of Utrecht, Utrecht, Netherlands
| | - Raghbir Kaur
- Department of Mental Health and Substance Use, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Michelle Pérez Maillard
- Department of Mental Health and Substance Use, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Muhammad Imran Nisar
- Department of Paediatrics and Child Health, The Aga Khan University, Karachi, Sindh, Pakistan
| | - Rasheda Khanam
- International Center for Maternal and Newborn Health, Department of International Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland, USA
| | - Sunil Sazawal
- Center for Public Health Kinetics, CPHK Global, Pemba, Zanzibar, Tanzania
| | - Arsène Zongo
- IPA Côte d'Ivoire, Innovations for Poverty Action, Abidjan, Côte d'Ivoire
| | | | - Yunting Zhang
- Child Health Advocacy Institute, National Children's Medical Center, Shanghai Children's Medical Center Affiliated to Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, People's Republic of China
| | | | - Katelyn Hepworth
- Health Promotion, University of Nebraska Medical Center College of Public Health, Omaha, Nebraska, USA
| | - Günther Fink
- Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland
| | - Marta Rubio-Codina
- Social Protection and Health Division, Inter-American Development Bank, Washington, DC, USA
| | - Fahmida Tofail
- Nutrition and Clinical Services Division (NCSD), International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research Bangladesh, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - Iris Eekhout
- Department of Child Health, Netherlands Organization for Applied Scientific Research, Leiden, Netherlands
| | - Jonathan Seiden
- Education Policy and Program Evaluation, Harvard Graduate School of Education, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA
| | - Rebecca Norton
- Department of Mental Health and Substance Use, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Abdullah H Baqui
- International Center for Maternal and Newborn Health, Department of International Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland, USA
| | | | - Jin Zhao
- Department of Developmental and Behavioural Pediatrics, National Children's Medical Center, Shanghai Children's Medical Center Affiliated to Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shangai, People's Republic of China
| | - Andreas Holzinger
- IPA Francophone West Africa, Innovations for Poverty Action, Abidjan, Côte d\'Ivoire
| | - Symone Detmar
- Department of Child Health, Netherlands Organization for Applied Scientific Research, Leiden, Netherlands
| | | | - Farzana Begum
- Department of Paediatrics and Child Health, The Aga Khan University, Karachi, Sindh, Pakistan
| | - Said Mohammed Ali
- Institution Head, Public Health Laboratory, Pemba, Zanzibar, Tanzania
| | - Fyezah Jehan
- Department of Paediatrics and Child Health, The Aga Khan University, Karachi, Sindh, Pakistan
- Paediatrics and Child Health, The Aga Khan University, Karachi, Sindh, Pakistan
| | - Tarun Dua
- Department of Mental Health and Substance Use, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Magdalena Janus
- Offord Centre for Child Studies, Department of Psychiatry and Behavioural Neurosciences, McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada
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4
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McCray G, McCoy D, Kariger P, Janus M, Black MM, Chang SM, Tofail F, Eekhout I, Waldman M, van Buuren S, Khanam R, Sazawal S, Nizar A, Schönbeck Y, Zongo A, Brentani A, Zhang Y, Dua T, Cavallera V, Raikes A, Weber AM, Bromley K, Baqui A, Dutta A, Nisar I, Detmar SB, Anago R, Mercadante P, Jiang F, Kaur R, Hepworth K, Rubio-Codina M, Kembou SN, Ahmed S, Lancaster GA, Gladstone M. The creation of the Global Scales for Early Development (GSED) for children aged 0-3 years: combining subject matter expert judgements with big data. BMJ Glob Health 2023; 8:bmjgh-2022-009827. [PMID: 36650017 PMCID: PMC9853147 DOI: 10.1136/bmjgh-2022-009827] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/07/2022] [Accepted: 12/02/2022] [Indexed: 01/19/2023] Open
Abstract
INTRODUCTION With the ratification of the Sustainable Development Goals, there is an increased emphasis on early childhood development (ECD) and well-being. The WHO led Global Scales for Early Development (GSED) project aims to provide population and programmatic level measures of ECD for 0-3 years that are valid, reliable and have psychometrically stable performance across geographical, cultural and language contexts. This paper reports on the creation of two measures: (1) the GSED Short Form (GSED-SF)-a caregiver reported measure for population-evaluation-self-administered with no training required and (2) the GSED Long Form (GSED-LF)-a directly administered/observed measure for programmatic evaluation-administered by a trained professional. METHODS We selected 807 psychometrically best-performing items using a Rasch measurement model from an ECD measurement databank which comprised 66 075 children assessed on 2211 items from 18 ECD measures in 32 countries. From 766 of these items, in-depth subject matter expert judgements were gathered to inform final item selection. Specifically collected were data on (1) conceptual matches between pairs of items originating from different measures, (2) developmental domain(s) measured by each item and (3) perceptions of feasibility of administration of each item in diverse contexts. Prototypes were finalised through a combination of psychometric performance evaluation and expert consensus to optimally identify items. RESULTS We created the GSED-SF (139 items) and GSED-LF (157 items) for tablet-based and paper-based assessments, with an optimal set of items that fit the Rasch model, met subject matter expert criteria, avoided conceptual overlap, covered multiple domains of child development and were feasible to implement across diverse settings. CONCLUSIONS State-of-the-art quantitative and qualitative procedures were used to select of theoretically relevant and globally feasible items representing child development for children aged 0-3 years. GSED-SF and GSED-LF will be piloted and validated in children across diverse cultural, demographic, social and language contexts for global use.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Dana McCoy
- Harvard Graduate School of Education, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA
| | | | - Magdalena Janus
- Offord Centre for Child Studies, Department of Psychiatry and Behavioural Neurosciences, McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada
| | - Maureen M Black
- Department of Pediatrics, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland, USA,RTI International, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina, USA
| | - Susan M Chang
- Caribbean Institute for Health Research, The University of the West Indies, Kingston, Jamaica
| | - Fahmida Tofail
- Nutrition and Clinical Services Division, International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research Bangladesh, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - Iris Eekhout
- Department of Child Health, TNO, Leiden, The Netherlands
| | - Marcus Waldman
- College of Public Health, University of Nebraska Medical Center, Omaha, Nebraska, USA
| | | | - Rasheda Khanam
- Department of International Health, Johns Hopkins, Baltimore, Maryland, USA
| | - Sunil Sazawal
- Center for Public Health Kinetics, New Delhi, New Delhi, India
| | - Ambreen Nizar
- Department of Pediatrics and Child Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, Medical College, The Aga Khan University, Karachi, Pakistan
| | | | - Arsène Zongo
- Innovations for Poverty Action, Washington, District of Columbia, USA
| | - Alexandra Brentani
- Pediatrics, Universidade de Sao Paulo Faculdade de Medicina, Sao Paulo, Brazil
| | - Yunting Zhang
- Shanghai Children's Medical Center Affiliated to Shanghai Jiaotong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, Shanghai, China,National Children's Medical Center, Shanghai Children's Medical Center affiliated to School of Medicine, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, China
| | - Tarun Dua
- Brain Health Unit, Mental Health and Substance Use Department, World Health Organization, Geneve, Switzerland
| | - Vanessa Cavallera
- Brain Health Unit, Mental Health and Substance Use Department, World Health Organization, Geneve, Switzerland
| | - Abbie Raikes
- College of Public Health, University of Nebraska Medical Center, Omaha, Nebraska, USA
| | - Ann M Weber
- School of Public Health, University of Nevada Reno, Reno, Nevada, USA
| | | | - Abdullah Baqui
- International Center for Maternal and Newborn Health, Johns Hopkins University Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, USA
| | | | - Imran Nisar
- Paediatrics, Aga Khan University, Karrachi, Pakistan
| | | | - Romuald Anago
- Innovations for Poverty Action, Washington, District of Columbia, USA
| | - Pacifico Mercadante
- Pediatrics, Universidade de Sao Paulo Faculdade de Medicina, Sao Paulo, Brazil
| | - Fan Jiang
- Shanghai Children's Medical Center Affiliated to Shanghai Jiaotong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, Shanghai, China
| | - Raghbir Kaur
- Brain Health Unit, Mental Health and Substance Use Department, World Health Organization, Geneve, Switzerland
| | - Katelyn Hepworth
- University of Nebraska-Lincoln College of Education and Human Sciences, Lincoln, Nebraska, USA
| | | | - Samuel N Kembou
- Innovations for Poverty Action, Washington, District of Columbia, USA
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5
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Contrepois K, Chen S, Ghaemi MS, Wong RJ, Jehan F, Sazawal S, Baqui AH, Stringer JSA, Rahman A, Nisar MI, Dhingra U, Khanam R, Ilyas M, Dutta A, Mehmood U, Deb S, Hotwani A, Ali SM, Rahman S, Nizar A, Ame SM, Muhammad S, Chauhan A, Khan W, Raqib R, Das S, Ahmed S, Hasan T, Khalid J, Juma MH, Chowdhury NH, Kabir F, Aftab F, Quaiyum A, Manu A, Yoshida S, Bahl R, Pervin J, Price JT, Rahman M, Kasaro MP, Litch JA, Musonda P, Vwalika B, Shaw G, Stevenson DK, Aghaeepour N, Snyder MP. Author Correction: Prediction of gestational age using urinary metabolites in term and preterm pregnancies. Sci Rep 2022; 12:19753. [PMID: 36396676 PMCID: PMC9671899 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-022-23715-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Kévin Contrepois
- grid.168010.e0000000419368956Department of Genetics, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA USA ,grid.168010.e0000000419368956Stanford Cardiovascular Institute, Stanford University, Stanford, CA USA
| | - Songjie Chen
- grid.168010.e0000000419368956Department of Genetics, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA USA
| | - Mohammad S. Ghaemi
- grid.168010.e0000000419368956Department of Anesthesiology, Perioperative and Pain Medicine, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA USA ,grid.24433.320000 0004 0449 7958Digital Technologies Research Centre, National Research Council Canada, Toronto, ON Canada
| | - Ronald J. Wong
- grid.168010.e0000000419368956Department of Pediatrics, Division of Neonatal and Developmental Medicine, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA USA
| | - Fyezah Jehan
- grid.7147.50000 0001 0633 6224Department of Pediatrics and Child Health, Aga Khan University, Karachi, Pakistan ,grid.7147.50000 0001 0633 6224Biorepository and Omics Research Group, Faculty of Health Sciences, Medical College, Aga Khan University, Karachi, Pakistan
| | - Sunil Sazawal
- Center for Public Health Kinetics, New Delhi, India ,Public Health Laboratory IdC, Pemba, Zanzibar, Tanzania
| | - Abdullah H. Baqui
- grid.21107.350000 0001 2171 9311International Center for Maternal and Newborn Health, Department of International Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD USA
| | - Jeffrey S. A. Stringer
- grid.10698.360000000122483208Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC USA
| | - Anisur Rahman
- grid.414142.60000 0004 0600 7174Maternal and Child Health Division, International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - Muhammad I. Nisar
- grid.7147.50000 0001 0633 6224Department of Pediatrics and Child Health, Aga Khan University, Karachi, Pakistan ,grid.7147.50000 0001 0633 6224Biorepository and Omics Research Group, Faculty of Health Sciences, Medical College, Aga Khan University, Karachi, Pakistan
| | - Usha Dhingra
- Center for Public Health Kinetics, New Delhi, India
| | - Rasheda Khanam
- grid.21107.350000 0001 2171 9311International Center for Maternal and Newborn Health, Department of International Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD USA
| | - Muhammad Ilyas
- grid.7147.50000 0001 0633 6224Department of Pediatrics and Child Health, Aga Khan University, Karachi, Pakistan
| | - Arup Dutta
- Center for Public Health Kinetics, New Delhi, India
| | - Usma Mehmood
- grid.7147.50000 0001 0633 6224Department of Pediatrics and Child Health, Aga Khan University, Karachi, Pakistan
| | - Saikat Deb
- Center for Public Health Kinetics, New Delhi, India ,Public Health Laboratory IdC, Pemba, Zanzibar, Tanzania
| | - Aneeta Hotwani
- grid.7147.50000 0001 0633 6224Department of Pediatrics and Child Health, Aga Khan University, Karachi, Pakistan
| | - Said M. Ali
- Public Health Laboratory IdC, Pemba, Zanzibar, Tanzania
| | - Sayedur Rahman
- Projahnmo Research Foundation, Abanti, Banani, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - Ambreen Nizar
- grid.7147.50000 0001 0633 6224Department of Pediatrics and Child Health, Aga Khan University, Karachi, Pakistan
| | - Shaali M. Ame
- Public Health Laboratory IdC, Pemba, Zanzibar, Tanzania
| | - Sajid Muhammad
- grid.7147.50000 0001 0633 6224Department of Pediatrics and Child Health, Aga Khan University, Karachi, Pakistan
| | | | - Waqasuddin Khan
- grid.7147.50000 0001 0633 6224Department of Pediatrics and Child Health, Aga Khan University, Karachi, Pakistan ,grid.7147.50000 0001 0633 6224Biorepository and Omics Research Group, Faculty of Health Sciences, Medical College, Aga Khan University, Karachi, Pakistan
| | - Rubhana Raqib
- International Center for Diarroheal Disease Research, Mohakhali, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - Sayan Das
- Center for Public Health Kinetics, New Delhi, India
| | - Salahuddin Ahmed
- Projahnmo Research Foundation, Abanti, Banani, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - Tarik Hasan
- Projahnmo Research Foundation, Abanti, Banani, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - Javairia Khalid
- grid.7147.50000 0001 0633 6224Department of Pediatrics and Child Health, Aga Khan University, Karachi, Pakistan ,grid.7147.50000 0001 0633 6224Biorepository and Omics Research Group, Faculty of Health Sciences, Medical College, Aga Khan University, Karachi, Pakistan
| | | | | | - Furqan Kabir
- grid.7147.50000 0001 0633 6224Department of Pediatrics and Child Health, Aga Khan University, Karachi, Pakistan
| | - Fahad Aftab
- Center for Public Health Kinetics, New Delhi, India
| | - Abdul Quaiyum
- International Center for Diarroheal Disease Research, Mohakhali, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - Alexander Manu
- grid.3575.40000000121633745Maternal, Newborn, Child and Adolescent Health Research, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Sachiyo Yoshida
- grid.3575.40000000121633745Maternal, Newborn, Child and Adolescent Health Research, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Rajiv Bahl
- grid.3575.40000000121633745Maternal, Newborn, Child and Adolescent Health Research, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Jesmin Pervin
- grid.414142.60000 0004 0600 7174Maternal and Child Health Division, International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - Joan T. Price
- grid.10698.360000000122483208Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC USA
| | - Monjur Rahman
- grid.414142.60000 0004 0600 7174Maternal and Child Health Division, International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | | | - James A. Litch
- grid.507550.20000 0004 8512 7499Global Alliance to Prevent Prematurity and Stillbirth, Seattle, USA
| | - Patrick Musonda
- grid.12984.360000 0000 8914 5257Department of Biostatistics, University of Zambia, Lusaka, Zambia
| | - Bellington Vwalika
- grid.12984.360000 0000 8914 5257Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, University of Zambia School of Medicine, Lusaka, Zambia
| | - Gary Shaw
- grid.168010.e0000000419368956Department of Pediatrics, Division of Neonatal and Developmental Medicine, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA USA
| | - David K. Stevenson
- grid.168010.e0000000419368956Department of Pediatrics, Division of Neonatal and Developmental Medicine, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA USA
| | - Nima Aghaeepour
- grid.168010.e0000000419368956Department of Anesthesiology, Perioperative and Pain Medicine, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA USA
| | - Michael P. Snyder
- grid.168010.e0000000419368956Department of Genetics, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA USA ,grid.168010.e0000000419368956Stanford Cardiovascular Institute, Stanford University, Stanford, CA USA
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Nizar A, Sheikh M, Khan FR, Iqbal NT, Azam SI, Qureshi S, Ali A, Jehan F. Streptococcus mutans carriage in the saliva of mothers and its association with dental caries and Streptococcus mutans carriage in the saliva of children between 6 and 30 months old in a low-income setting in Karachi, Pakistan. Clin Exp Dent Res 2022; 8:1523-1532. [PMID: 36177666 PMCID: PMC9760158 DOI: 10.1002/cre2.648] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/17/2022] [Revised: 07/28/2022] [Accepted: 08/05/2022] [Indexed: 01/26/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Early childhood caries poses a significant health issue in children under 6 years old. It is determined that Streptococcus mutans is a primary etiological agent, likely to be transferred through maternal contact. OBJECTIVES To determine the association of maternal S. mutans counts with S. mutans counts in their children between 6 and 30 months of age, and to determine the maternal and child DMFT (decayed, missing, and filled teeth) indices. MATERIAL AND METHODS A community-based cross-sectional study was conducted in Karachi, Pakistan. A sample of 193 dyads of mother-children (6-30 months of age) was selected via purposive sampling. Saliva samples of the dyads were collected to assess S. mutans count. Caries assessment was performed for both using the DMFT index. A pretested questionnaire was used. The association of bottle-feeding, oral hygiene measures, and other factors with S. mutans counts in children were also explored. Zero-inflated negative binomial regression model at a 5% level of significance was applied using STATA version 12.0. RESULTS Out of 193 children, 109 (56.47%) were males and 84 (43.52%) were females. The mean age of mothers and children was 29.4 ± 6.2 years and 19.54 ± 6.8 months, respectively. Maternal S. mutans counts were not statistically associated with child's S. mutans counts (Mean child's S. mutans count ratio: 1; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1, 1.01; p = .882). Compared with children who were breastfed, S. mutans counts were higher in children who were bottle-fed (mean S. mutans count ratio= 4.85 [95% CI: 1.53, 15.41], p = .007). Age of mother and present caries status of mothers was significantly associated with the child's S. mutans count. CONCLUSION No association between maternal S. mutans and child S. mutans was observed. However, maternal age, children who were breastfed, children who did not use pacifiers, and children with mothers who did not have caries, exhibited low S. mutans counts in their saliva.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ambreen Nizar
- Department of Pediatrics and Child HealthAga Khan UniversityKarachiPakistan
| | - Maheen Sheikh
- Department of Pediatrics and Child HealthAga Khan UniversityKarachiPakistan
| | - Farhan R. Khan
- Dentistry Section, Department of SurgeryAga Khan UniversityKarachiPakistan
| | | | - Syed I. Azam
- Department of Community Health SciencesAga Khan UniversityKarachiPakistan
| | - Shahida Qureshi
- Department of Pediatrics and Child HealthAga Khan UniversityKarachiPakistan
| | - Asad Ali
- Department of Pediatrics and Child HealthAga Khan UniversityKarachiPakistan
| | - Fyezah Jehan
- Department of Pediatrics and Child HealthAga Khan UniversityKarachiPakistan
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7
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Contrepois K, Chen S, Ghaemi MS, Wong RJ, Jehan F, Sazawal S, Baqui AH, Nisar MI, Dhingra U, Khanam R, Ilyas M, Dutta A, Mehmood U, Deb S, Hotwani A, Ali SM, Rahman S, Nizar A, Ame SM, Muhammad S, Chauhan A, Khan W, Raqib R, Das S, Ahmed S, Hasan T, Khalid J, Juma MH, Chowdhury NH, Kabir F, Aftab F, Quaiyum MA, Manu A, Yoshida S, Bahl R, Rahman A, Pervin J, Price JT, Rahman M, Kasaro MP, Litch JA, Musonda P, Vwalika B, Stringer JSA, Shaw G, Stevenson DK, Aghaeepour N, Snyder MP. Prediction of gestational age using urinary metabolites in term and preterm pregnancies. Sci Rep 2022; 12:8033. [PMID: 35577875 PMCID: PMC9110694 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-022-11866-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/12/2021] [Accepted: 04/25/2022] [Indexed: 11/23/2022] Open
Abstract
Assessment of gestational age (GA) is key to provide optimal care during pregnancy. However, its accurate determination remains challenging in low- and middle-income countries, where access to obstetric ultrasound is limited. Hence, there is an urgent need to develop clinical approaches that allow accurate and inexpensive estimations of GA. We investigated the ability of urinary metabolites to predict GA at time of collection in a diverse multi-site cohort of healthy and pathological pregnancies (n = 99) using a broad-spectrum liquid chromatography coupled with mass spectrometry (LC–MS) platform. Our approach detected a myriad of steroid hormones and their derivatives including estrogens, progesterones, corticosteroids, and androgens which were associated with pregnancy progression. We developed a restricted model that predicted GA with high accuracy using three metabolites (rho = 0.87, RMSE = 1.58 weeks) that was validated in an independent cohort (n = 20). The predictions were more robust in pregnancies that went to term in comparison to pregnancies that ended prematurely. Overall, we demonstrated the feasibility of implementing urine metabolomics analysis in large-scale multi-site studies and report a predictive model of GA with a potential clinical value.
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8
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Sazawal S, Das S, Ryckman KK, Khanam R, Nisar I, Deb S, Jasper EA, Rahman S, Mehmood U, Dutta A, Chowdhury NH, Barkat A, Mittal H, Ahmed S, Khalid F, Ali SM, Raqib R, Ilyas M, Nizar A, Manu A, Russell D, Yoshida S, Baqui AH, Jehan F, Dhingra U, Bahl R. Machine learning prediction of gestational age from metabolic screening markers resistant to ambient temperature transportation: Facilitating use of this technology in low resource settings of South Asia and East Africa. J Glob Health 2022; 12:04021. [PMID: 35493781 PMCID: PMC9022771 DOI: 10.7189/jogh.12.04021] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Knowledge of gestational age is critical for guiding preterm neonatal care. In the last decade, metabolic gestational dating approaches emerged in response to a global health need; because in most of the developing world, accurate antenatal gestational age estimates are not feasible. These methods initially developed in North America have now been externally validated in two studies in developing countries, however, require shipment of samples at sub-zero temperature. Methods A subset of 330 pairs of heel prick dried blood spot samples were shipped on dry ice and in ambient temperature from field sites in Tanzania, Bangladesh and Pakistan to laboratory in Iowa (USA). We evaluated impact on recovery of analytes of shipment temperature, developed and evaluated models for predicting gestational age using a limited set of metabolic screening analytes after excluding 17 analytes that were impacted by shipment conditions of a total of 44 analytes. Results With the machine learning model using all the analytes, samples shipped in dry ice yielded a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 1.19 weeks compared to 1.58 weeks for samples shipped in ambient temperature. Out of the 44 screening analytes, recovery of 17 analytes was significantly different between the two shipment methods and these were excluded from further machine learning model development. The final model, restricted to stable analytes provided a RMSE of 1.24 (95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.10-1.37) weeks for samples shipped on dry ice and RMSE of 1.28 (95% CI = 1.15-1.39) for samples shipped at ambient temperature. Analysis for discriminating preterm births (gestational age <37 weeks), yielded an area under curve (AUC) of 0.76 (95% CI = 0.71-0.81) for samples shipped on dry ice and AUC of 0.73 (95% CI = 0.67-0.78) for samples shipped in ambient temperature. Conclusions In this study, we demonstrate that machine learning algorithms developed using a sub-set of newborn screening analytes which are not sensitive to shipment at ambient temperature, can accurately provide estimates of gestational age comparable to those from published regression models from North America using all analytes. If validated in larger samples especially with more newborns <34 weeks, this technology could substantially facilitate implementation in LMICs.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sunil Sazawal
- Center for Public Health Kinetics, New Delhi, India,Public Health Laboratory-IDC, Chake Chake, Tanzania
| | - Sayan Das
- Center for Public Health Kinetics, New Delhi, India
| | | | - Rasheda Khanam
- Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, USA
| | | | - Saikat Deb
- Center for Public Health Kinetics, New Delhi, India,Public Health Laboratory-IDC, Chake Chake, Tanzania
| | | | | | | | - Arup Dutta
- Center for Public Health Kinetics, New Delhi, India
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Rubhana Raqib
- International Center for Diarrheal Disease Research, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | | | | | - Alexander Manu
- Department of Maternal, Newborn, Child and Adolescent Health, and Ageing, Geneva, Switzerland
| | | | - Sachiyo Yoshida
- Department of Maternal, Newborn, Child and Adolescent Health, and Ageing, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Abdullah H Baqui
- Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, USA
| | | | - Usha Dhingra
- Center for Public Health Kinetics, New Delhi, India
| | - Rajiv Bahl
- Department of Maternal, Newborn, Child and Adolescent Health, and Ageing, Geneva, Switzerland
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Jafri L, Habib A, Muhammad I, Nisar I, Nizar A, Jehan F. W002 Do prematurity and gestational age affect dried blood spot reference interval of TSH and 17- hydroxyprogesterone? Clin Chim Acta 2022. [DOI: 10.1016/j.cca.2022.04.132] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/01/2022]
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10
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Khanam R, Applegate J, Nisar I, Dutta A, Rahman S, Nizar A, Ali SM, Chowdhury NH, Begum F, Dhingra U, Tofail F, Mehmood U, Deb S, Ahmed S, Muhammad S, Das S, Ahmed S, Mittal H, Minckas N, Yoshida S, Bahl R, Jehan F, Sazawal S, Baqui AH. Burden and risk factors for antenatal depression and its effect on preterm birth in South Asia: A population-based cohort study. PLoS One 2022; 17:e0263091. [PMID: 35130270 PMCID: PMC8820649 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0263091] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/14/2021] [Accepted: 01/11/2022] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Introduction
Women experience high rates of depression, particularly during pregnancy and the postpartum periods. Using population-based data from Bangladesh and Pakistan, we estimated the burden of antenatal depression, its risk factors, and its effect on preterm birth.
Methods
The study uses the following data: maternal depression measured between 24 and 28 weeks of gestation using the 9–question Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9); data on pregnancy including an ultrasound before 19 weeks of gestation; data on pregnancy outcomes; and data on woman’s age, education, parity, weight, height, history of previous illness, prior miscarriage, stillbirth, husband’s education, and household socioeconomic data collected during early pregnancy. Using PHQ-9 cutoff score of ≥12, women were categorized into none to mild depression or moderate to moderately severe depression. Using ultrasound data, preterm birth was defined as babies born <37 weeks of gestation. To identify risk ratios (RR) for antenatal depression, unadjusted and adjusted RR and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated using log- binomial model. Log-binomial models were also used for determining the effect of antenatal depression on preterm birth adjusting for potential confounders. Data were analyzed using Stata version 16 (StataCorp LP).
Results
About 6% of the women reported moderate to moderately severe depressive symptoms during the antenatal period. A parity of ≥2 and the highest household wealth status were associated with an increased risk of depression. The overall incidence of preterm birth was 13.4%. Maternal antenatal depression was significantly associated with the risk of preterm birth (ARR, 95% CI: 1.34, 1.02–1.74).
Conclusion
The increased risk of preterm birth in women with antenatal depression in conjunction with other significant risk factors suggests that depression likely occurs within a constellation of other risk factors. Thus, to effectively address the burden of preterm birth, programs require developing and providing integrated care addressing multiple risk factors.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rasheda Khanam
- Department of International Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America
- * E-mail: (RK); (RB)
| | - Jennifer Applegate
- Department of International Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America
| | - Imran Nisar
- Aga Khan University, Department of Paediatrics and Child Health, Karachi, Sindh, Pakistan
| | - Arup Dutta
- Center for Public Health Kinetics, Global Division, New Delhi, India
| | - Sayedur Rahman
- Projahnmo Research Foundation, Abanti, Banani, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - Ambreen Nizar
- Aga Khan University, Department of Paediatrics and Child Health, Karachi, Sindh, Pakistan
| | | | | | - Farzana Begum
- Aga Khan University, Department of Paediatrics and Child Health, Karachi, Sindh, Pakistan
| | - Usha Dhingra
- Center for Public Health Kinetics, Global Division, New Delhi, India
| | - Fahmida Tofail
- International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - Usma Mehmood
- Aga Khan University, Department of Paediatrics and Child Health, Karachi, Sindh, Pakistan
| | - Saikat Deb
- Center for Public Health Kinetics, Global Division, New Delhi, India
- Public Health Laboratory-IDC, Chake Chake, Pemba, Tanzania
| | - Salahuddin Ahmed
- Projahnmo Research Foundation, Abanti, Banani, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - Sajid Muhammad
- Aga Khan University, Department of Paediatrics and Child Health, Karachi, Sindh, Pakistan
| | - Sayan Das
- Center for Public Health Kinetics, Global Division, New Delhi, India
| | - Saifuddin Ahmed
- Department of Population, Family and Reproductive Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America
| | - Harshita Mittal
- Center for Public Health Kinetics, Global Division, New Delhi, India
| | - Nicole Minckas
- World Health Organization (MCA/MRD), Geneva, Switzerland
| | | | - Rajiv Bahl
- World Health Organization (MCA/MRD), Geneva, Switzerland
- * E-mail: (RK); (RB)
| | - Fyezah Jehan
- Aga Khan University, Department of Paediatrics and Child Health, Karachi, Sindh, Pakistan
| | - Sunil Sazawal
- Center for Public Health Kinetics, Global Division, New Delhi, India
- Public Health Laboratory-IDC, Chake Chake, Pemba, Tanzania
| | - Abdullah H. Baqui
- Department of International Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America
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11
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Sazawal S, Ryckman KK, Das S, Khanam R, Nisar I, Jasper E, Dutta A, Rahman S, Mehmood U, Bedell B, Deb S, Chowdhury NH, Barkat A, Mittal H, Ahmed S, Khalid F, Raqib R, Manu A, Yoshida S, Ilyas M, Nizar A, Ali SM, Baqui AH, Jehan F, Dhingra U, Bahl R. Machine learning guided postnatal gestational age assessment using new-born screening metabolomic data in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. BMC Pregnancy Childbirth 2021; 21:609. [PMID: 34493237 PMCID: PMC8424940 DOI: 10.1186/s12884-021-04067-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/08/2021] [Accepted: 08/14/2021] [Indexed: 12/12/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Babies born early and/or small for gestational age in Low and Middle-income countries (LMICs) contribute substantially to global neonatal and infant mortality. Tracking this metric is critical at a population level for informed policy, advocacy, resources allocation and program evaluation and at an individual level for targeted care. Early prenatal ultrasound examination is not available in these settings, gestational age (GA) is estimated using new-born assessment, last menstrual period (LMP) recalls and birth weight, which are unreliable. Algorithms in developed settings, using metabolic screen data, provided GA estimates within 1-2 weeks of ultrasonography-based GA. We sought to leverage machine learning algorithms to improve accuracy and applicability of this approach to LMICs settings. METHODS This study uses data from AMANHI-ACT, a prospective pregnancy cohorts in Asia and Africa where early pregnancy ultrasonography estimated GA and birth weight are available and metabolite screening data in a subset of 1318 new-borns were also available. We utilized this opportunity to develop machine learning (ML) algorithms. Random Forest Regressor was used where data was randomly split into model-building and model-testing dataset. Mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean square error (RMSE) were used to evaluate performance. Bootstrap procedures were used to estimate confidence intervals (CI) for RMSE and MAE. For pre-term birth identification ROC analysis with bootstrap and exact estimation of CI for area under curve (AUC) were performed. RESULTS Overall model estimated GA had MAE of 5.2 days (95% CI 4.6-6.8), which was similar to performance in SGA, MAE 5.3 days (95% CI 4.6-6.2). GA was correctly estimated to within 1 week for 85.21% (95% CI 72.31-94.65). For preterm birth classification, AUC in ROC analysis was 98.1% (95% CI 96.0-99.0; p < 0.001). This model performed better than Iowa regression, AUC Difference 14.4% (95% CI 5-23.7; p = 0.002). CONCLUSIONS Machine learning algorithms and models applied to metabolomic gestational age dating offer a ladder of opportunity for providing accurate population-level gestational age estimates in LMICs settings. These findings also point to an opportunity for investigation of region-specific models, more focused feasible analyte models, and broad untargeted metabolome investigation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sunil Sazawal
- Center for Public Health Kinetics, Global Division, 214 A, LGL Vinoba Puri, Lajpat Nagar II, New Delhi, India.
| | - Kelli K Ryckman
- College of Public Health, Department of Epidemiology, University of Iowa, 145 N. Riverside Dr. , S435, Iowa City, IA, 52242, USA
| | - Sayan Das
- Center for Public Health Kinetics, Global Division, 214 A, LGL Vinoba Puri, Lajpat Nagar II, New Delhi, India
| | - Rasheda Khanam
- Department of International Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School for Public Health, 615 N. Wolfe Street, Baltimore, MD, 21205, USA
| | - Imran Nisar
- Department of Paediatrics and Child Health, Aga Khan University, Karachi, Sindh, Pakistan
| | - Elizabeth Jasper
- College of Public Health, Department of Epidemiology, University of Iowa, 145 N. Riverside Dr. , S435, Iowa City, IA, 52242, USA
| | - Arup Dutta
- Center for Public Health Kinetics, Global Division, 214 A, LGL Vinoba Puri, Lajpat Nagar II, New Delhi, India
| | - Sayedur Rahman
- Projahnmo Research Foundation, Abanti, Flat # 5B, House # 37, Road # 27, Banani, Dhaka, 1213, Bangladesh
| | - Usma Mehmood
- Department of Paediatrics and Child Health, Aga Khan University, Karachi, Sindh, Pakistan
| | - Bruce Bedell
- College of Public Health, Department of Epidemiology, University of Iowa, 145 N. Riverside Dr. , S435, Iowa City, IA, 52242, USA
| | - Saikat Deb
- Public Health Laboratory-IDC, Chake Chake, Pemba, Tanzania
| | - Nabidul Haque Chowdhury
- Projahnmo Research Foundation, Abanti, Flat # 5B, House # 37, Road # 27, Banani, Dhaka, 1213, Bangladesh
| | - Amina Barkat
- Department of Paediatrics and Child Health, Aga Khan University, Karachi, Sindh, Pakistan
| | - Harshita Mittal
- Center for Public Health Kinetics, Global Division, 214 A, LGL Vinoba Puri, Lajpat Nagar II, New Delhi, India
| | - Salahuddin Ahmed
- Projahnmo Research Foundation, Abanti, Flat # 5B, House # 37, Road # 27, Banani, Dhaka, 1213, Bangladesh
| | - Farah Khalid
- Department of Paediatrics and Child Health, Aga Khan University, Karachi, Sindh, Pakistan
| | - Rubhana Raqib
- International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Mohakhali, Dhaka, 1212, Bangladesh
| | - Alexander Manu
- Department of Maternal, Newborn, Child and Adolescent Health and Ageing, Avenue Appia 20, 1211, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Sachiyo Yoshida
- Department of Maternal, Newborn, Child and Adolescent Health and Ageing, Avenue Appia 20, 1211, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Muhammad Ilyas
- Department of Paediatrics and Child Health, Aga Khan University, Karachi, Sindh, Pakistan
| | - Ambreen Nizar
- Department of Paediatrics and Child Health, Aga Khan University, Karachi, Sindh, Pakistan
| | | | - Abdullah H Baqui
- Department of International Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School for Public Health, 615 N. Wolfe Street, Baltimore, MD, 21205, USA
| | - Fyezah Jehan
- Department of Paediatrics and Child Health, Aga Khan University, Karachi, Sindh, Pakistan
| | - Usha Dhingra
- Center for Public Health Kinetics, Global Division, 214 A, LGL Vinoba Puri, Lajpat Nagar II, New Delhi, India
| | - Rajiv Bahl
- Department of Maternal, Newborn, Child and Adolescent Health and Ageing, Avenue Appia 20, 1211, Geneva, Switzerland.
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12
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Monangi N, Xu H, Khanam R, Khan W, Deb S, Pervin J, Price JT, Kennedy SH, Al Mahmud A, Fan Y, Le TQ, Care A, Landero JA, Combs GF, Belling E, Chappell J, Kong F, Lacher C, Ahmed S, Chowdhury NH, Rahman S, Kabir F, Nisar I, Hotwani A, Mehmood U, Nizar A, Khalid J, Dhingra U, Dutta A, Ali S, Aftab F, Juma MH, Rahman M, Vwalika B, Musonda P, Ahmed T, Islam MM, Ashorn U, Maleta K, Hallman M, Goodfellow L, Gupta JK, Alfirevic A, Murphy S, Rand L, Ryckman KK, Murray JC, Bahl R, Litch JA, Baruch-Gravett C, Alfirevic Z, Ashorn P, Baqui A, Hirst J, Hoyo C, Jehan F, Jelliffe-Pawlowski LL, Rahman A, Roth DE, Sazawal S, Stringer J, Zhang G, Muglia L. Association of maternal prenatal selenium concentration and preterm birth: a multicountry meta-analysis. BMJ Glob Health 2021; 6:bmjgh-2021-005856. [PMID: 34518202 PMCID: PMC8438754 DOI: 10.1136/bmjgh-2021-005856] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/29/2021] [Accepted: 08/04/2021] [Indexed: 01/29/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Selenium (Se), an essential trace mineral, has been implicated in preterm birth (PTB). We aimed to determine the association of maternal Se concentrations during pregnancy with PTB risk and gestational duration in a large number of samples collected from diverse populations. METHODS Gestational duration data and maternal plasma or serum samples of 9946 singleton live births were obtained from 17 geographically diverse study cohorts. Maternal Se concentrations were determined by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry analysis. The associations between maternal Se with PTB and gestational duration were analysed using logistic and linear regressions. The results were then combined using fixed-effect and random-effect meta-analysis. FINDINGS In all study samples, the Se concentrations followed a normal distribution with a mean of 93.8 ng/mL (SD: 28.5 ng/mL) but varied substantially across different sites. The fixed-effect meta-analysis across the 17 cohorts showed that Se was significantly associated with PTB and gestational duration with effect size estimates of an OR=0.95 (95% CI: 0.9 to 1.00) for PTB and 0.66 days (95% CI: 0.38 to 0.94) longer gestation per 15 ng/mL increase in Se concentration. However, there was a substantial heterogeneity among study cohorts and the random-effect meta-analysis did not achieve statistical significance. The largest effect sizes were observed in UK (Liverpool) cohort, and most significant associations were observed in samples from Malawi. INTERPRETATION While our study observed statistically significant associations between maternal Se concentration and PTB at some sites, this did not generalise across the entire cohort. Whether population-specific factors explain the heterogeneity of our findings warrants further investigation. Further evidence is needed to understand the biologic pathways, clinical efficacy and safety, before changes to antenatal nutritional recommendations for Se supplementation are considered.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nagendra Monangi
- Division of Neonatology, Cincinnati Children's Hospital Medical Center, Cincinnati, Ohio, USA
- Center for Prevention of Preterm Birth, Perinatal Institute, Cincinnati Children's Hospital Medical Center and March of Dimes Prematurity Research Center Ohio Collaborative, Cincinnati, Ohio, USA
- Department of Pediatrics, University of Cincinnati College of Medicine, Cincinnati, Ohio, USA
| | - Huan Xu
- Center for Prevention of Preterm Birth, Perinatal Institute, Cincinnati Children's Hospital Medical Center and March of Dimes Prematurity Research Center Ohio Collaborative, Cincinnati, Ohio, USA
- Division of Human Genetics, Cincinnati Children's Hospital Medical Center, Cincinnati, Ohio, USA
| | - Rasheda Khanam
- International Health, Johns Hopkins University Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, USA
| | - Waqasuddin Khan
- Biorepository and Omics Research Group, Department of Pediatrics and Child Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, Medical College, The Aga Khan University, Karachi, Sindh, Pakistan
| | - Saikat Deb
- Center for Public Health Kinetics, New Delhi, India
- Research Division, Public Health Laboratory, Center for Public Health Kinetics, Chake Chake, Tanzania
| | - Jesmin Pervin
- Maternal and Child Health Division, International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research Bangladesh, Dhaka, Dhaka District, Bangladesh
| | - Joan T Price
- Obstetrics and Gynecology, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA
| | | | - Stephen H Kennedy
- INTERBIO-21st Study Consortium, Nuffield Department of Women's & Reproductive Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Abdullah Al Mahmud
- Nutrition and Clinical Services Division, International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research Bangladesh, Dhaka, Dhaka District, Bangladesh
| | - Yuemei Fan
- Center for Child Health Research, Faculty of Medicine and Health Technology, Tampere University, Tampere, Pirkanmaa, Finland
| | - Thanh Q Le
- Benh Vien Tu Du, Ho Chi Minh City, Viet Nam
| | - Angharad Care
- Department of Women's and Children's Health, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK
| | - Julio A Landero
- Department of Chemistry, University of Cincinnati, Cincinnati, Ohio, USA
| | - Gerald F Combs
- Jean Mayer USDA Human Nutrition Research Center on Aging, Tufts University, Medford, Massachusetts, USA
| | - Elizabeth Belling
- Division of Human Genetics, Cincinnati Children's Hospital Medical Center, Cincinnati, Ohio, USA
| | - Joanne Chappell
- Center for Prevention of Preterm Birth, Perinatal Institute, Cincinnati Children's Hospital Medical Center and March of Dimes Prematurity Research Center Ohio Collaborative, Cincinnati, Ohio, USA
- Division of Human Genetics, Cincinnati Children's Hospital Medical Center, Cincinnati, Ohio, USA
| | - Fansheng Kong
- Division of Human Genetics, Cincinnati Children's Hospital Medical Center, Cincinnati, Ohio, USA
| | - Criag Lacher
- Grand Forks Human Nutrition Research Center, USDA ARS, Grand Forks, North Dakota, USA
| | | | | | | | - Furqan Kabir
- Biorepository and Omics Research Group, Department of Pediatrics and Child Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, Medical College, The Aga Khan University, Karachi, Sindh, Pakistan
| | - Imran Nisar
- Biorepository and Omics Research Group, Department of Pediatrics and Child Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, Medical College, The Aga Khan University, Karachi, Sindh, Pakistan
| | - Aneeta Hotwani
- Biorepository and Omics Research Group, Department of Pediatrics and Child Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, Medical College, The Aga Khan University, Karachi, Sindh, Pakistan
| | - Usma Mehmood
- Biorepository and Omics Research Group, Department of Pediatrics and Child Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, Medical College, The Aga Khan University, Karachi, Sindh, Pakistan
| | - Ambreen Nizar
- Biorepository and Omics Research Group, Department of Pediatrics and Child Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, Medical College, The Aga Khan University, Karachi, Sindh, Pakistan
| | - Javairia Khalid
- Biorepository and Omics Research Group, Department of Pediatrics and Child Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, Medical College, The Aga Khan University, Karachi, Sindh, Pakistan
| | - Usha Dhingra
- Center for Public Health Kinetics, New Delhi, India
| | - Arup Dutta
- Center for Public Health Kinetics, New Delhi, India
| | - Said Ali
- Research Division, Public Health Laboratory, Center for Public Health Kinetics, Chake Chake, Tanzania
| | - Fahad Aftab
- Research Division, Public Health Laboratory, Center for Public Health Kinetics, Chake Chake, Tanzania
| | - Mohammed Hamad Juma
- Research Division, Public Health Laboratory, Center for Public Health Kinetics, Chake Chake, Tanzania
| | - Monjur Rahman
- Nutritional and Clinical Services Division, International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research Bangladesh, Dhaka, Dhaka District, Bangladesh
| | | | - Patrick Musonda
- School of Public Health, University of Zambia, Lusaka, Zambia
| | | | - Md Munirul Islam
- Nutrition and Clinical Services Division, International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research Bangladesh, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - Ulla Ashorn
- University of Tampere, Tampere, Pirkanmaa, Finland
| | - Kenneth Maleta
- School of Public Health, University of Malawi College of Medicine, Blantyre, Malawi
| | - Mikko Hallman
- Medical Research Centre Oulu, PEDEGO Research Unit, University of Oulu, Oulu, Pohjois-Pohjanmaa, Finland
| | - Laura Goodfellow
- Department of Women's and Children's Health, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, Merseyside, UK
| | - Juhi K Gupta
- Department of Women's and Children's Health, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, Merseyside, UK
| | - Ana Alfirevic
- Department of Women's and Children's Health, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, Merseyside, UK
| | - Susan Murphy
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, North Carolina, USA
| | - Larry Rand
- Department of Obstetrics, Gynecology and Reproductive Sciences, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, California, USA
| | - Kelli K Ryckman
- Department of Epidemiology, University of Iowa, Iowa City, Iowa, USA
| | - Jeffrey C Murray
- Department of Pediatrics, University of Iowa, Iowa City, Iowa, USA
| | - Rajiv Bahl
- Department of Medicine, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - James A Litch
- Global Alliance to Prevent Prematurity and Stillbirth, Lynnwood, Washington, USA
| | | | - Zarko Alfirevic
- Division of Perinatal Medicine, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK
| | - Per Ashorn
- Center for Child Health Research, Faculty of Medicine and Health Technology, University of Tampere, Tampere, Pirkanmaa, Finland
- Department of Pediatrics, Tampere University Hospital, Tampere, Finland
| | - Abdullah Baqui
- International Center for Maternal and Newborn Health, Department of International Health, Johns Hopkins University Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, USA
| | - Jane Hirst
- Nuffield Department of Women's and Reproductive Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Cathrine Hoyo
- Department of Biological Sciences and Center for Human Health and the Enivironment, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, North Carolina, USA
| | - Fyezah Jehan
- Department of Pediatrics and Child Health, Aga Khan University, Karachi, Pakistan
| | - Laura L Jelliffe-Pawlowski
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, California, USA
| | - Anisur Rahman
- Maternal and Child Health Division, International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research Bangladesh, Dhaka, Dhaka District, Bangladesh
| | - Daniel E Roth
- Department of Paediatrics, The Hospital for Sick Children, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Sunil Sazawal
- Center for Public Health Kinetics, New Delhi, India
- Research Division, Public Health Laboratory, Center for Public Health Kinetics, Chake Chake, Tanzania
| | - Jeffrey Stringer
- Obstetrics and Gynecology, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA
| | - Ge Zhang
- Center for Prevention of Preterm Birth, Perinatal Institute, Cincinnati Children's Hospital Medical Center and March of Dimes Prematurity Research Center Ohio Collaborative, Cincinnati, Ohio, USA
- Department of Pediatrics, University of Cincinnati College of Medicine, Cincinnati, Ohio, USA
- Division of Human Genetics, Cincinnati Children's Hospital Medical Center, Cincinnati, Ohio, USA
| | - Louis Muglia
- Center for Prevention of Preterm Birth, Perinatal Institute, Cincinnati Children's Hospital Medical Center and March of Dimes Prematurity Research Center Ohio Collaborative, Cincinnati, Ohio, USA
- Department of Pediatrics, University of Cincinnati College of Medicine, Cincinnati, Ohio, USA
- Division of Human Genetics, Cincinnati Children's Hospital Medical Center, Cincinnati, Ohio, USA
- Burroughs Wellcome Fund, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina, USA
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13
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Sazawal S, Ryckman KK, Mittal H, Khanam R, Nisar I, Jasper E, Rahman S, Mehmood U, Das S, Bedell B, Chowdhury NH, Barkat A, Dutta A, Deb S, Ahmed S, Khalid F, Raqib R, Ilyas M, Nizar A, Ali SM, Manu A, Yoshida S, Baqui AH, Jehan F, Dhingra U, Bahl R. Using AMANHI-ACT cohorts for external validation of Iowa new-born metabolic profiles based models for postnatal gestational age estimation. J Glob Health 2021; 11:04044. [PMID: 34326994 PMCID: PMC8285766 DOI: 10.7189/jogh.11.04044] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/18/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Globally, 15 million infants are born preterm and another 23.2 million infants are born small for gestational age (SGA). Determining burden of preterm and SGA births, is essential for effective planning, modification of health policies and targeting interventions for reducing these outcomes for which accurate estimation of gestational age (GA) is crucial. Early pregnancy ultrasound measurements, last menstrual period and post-natal neonatal examinations have proven to be not feasible or inaccurate. Proposed algorithms for GA estimation in western populations, based on routine new-born screening, though promising, lack validation in developing country settings. We evaluated the hypothesis that models developed in USA, also predicted GA in cohorts of South Asia (575) and Sub-Saharan Africa (736) with same precision. METHODS Dried heel prick blood spots collected 24-72 hours after birth from 1311 new-borns, were analysed for standard metabolic screen. Regression algorithm based, GA estimates were computed from metabolic data and compared to first trimester ultrasound validated, GA estimates (gold standard). RESULTS Overall Algorithm (metabolites + birthweight) estimated GA to within an average deviation of 1.5 weeks. The estimated GA was within the gold standard estimate by 1 and 2 weeks for 70.5% and 90.1% new-borns respectively. Inclusion of birthweight in the metabolites model improved discriminatory ability of this method, and showed promise in identifying preterm births. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis estimated an area under curve of 0.86 (conservative bootstrap 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.83 to 0.89); P < 0.001) and Youden Index of 0.58 (95% CI = 0.51 to 0.64) with a corresponding sensitivity of 80.7% and specificity of 77.6%. CONCLUSION Metabolic gestational age dating offers a novel means for accurate population-level gestational age estimates in LMIC settings and help preterm birth surveillance initiatives. Further research should focus on use of machine learning and newer analytic methods broader than conventional metabolic screen analytes, enabling incorporation of region-specific analytes and cord blood metabolic profiles models predicting gestational age accurately.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sunil Sazawal
- Center for Public Health Kinetics, Global Division, New Delhi, India
- Public Health Laboratory-IDC, Chake Chake, Pemba,Tanzania
| | - Kelli K Ryckman
- University of Iowa, College of Public Health, Department of Epidemiology, Iowa City, Iowa, USA
| | - Harshita Mittal
- Center for Public Health Kinetics, Global Division, New Delhi, India
| | - Rasheda Khanam
- Department of International Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, USA
| | - Imran Nisar
- Aga Khan University, Department of Paediatrics and Child Health, Karachi, Sindh, Pakistan
| | - Elizabeth Jasper
- University of Iowa, College of Public Health, Department of Epidemiology, Iowa City, Iowa, USA
| | | | - Usma Mehmood
- Aga Khan University, Department of Paediatrics and Child Health, Karachi, Sindh, Pakistan
| | - Sayan Das
- Center for Public Health Kinetics, Global Division, New Delhi, India
| | - Bruce Bedell
- University of Iowa, College of Public Health, Department of Epidemiology, Iowa City, Iowa, USA
| | | | - Amina Barkat
- Aga Khan University, Department of Paediatrics and Child Health, Karachi, Sindh, Pakistan
| | - Arup Dutta
- Center for Public Health Kinetics, Global Division, New Delhi, India
| | - Saikat Deb
- Center for Public Health Kinetics, Global Division, New Delhi, India
- Public Health Laboratory-IDC, Chake Chake, Pemba,Tanzania
| | | | - Farah Khalid
- Aga Khan University, Department of Paediatrics and Child Health, Karachi, Sindh, Pakistan
| | - Rubhana Raqib
- International Center for Diarrheal Disease Research, Bangladesh, Mohakhali, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - Muhammad Ilyas
- Aga Khan University, Department of Paediatrics and Child Health, Karachi, Sindh, Pakistan
| | - Ambreen Nizar
- Aga Khan University, Department of Paediatrics and Child Health, Karachi, Sindh, Pakistan
| | | | - Alexander Manu
- World Health Organization (MCA/MRD), Geneva, Switzerland
| | | | - Abdullah H Baqui
- Department of International Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, USA
| | - Fyezah Jehan
- Aga Khan University, Department of Paediatrics and Child Health, Karachi, Sindh, Pakistan
| | - Usha Dhingra
- Center for Public Health Kinetics, Global Division, New Delhi, India
| | - Rajiv Bahl
- World Health Organization (MCA/MRD), Geneva, Switzerland
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14
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Jehan F, Sazawal S, Baqui AH, Nisar MI, Dhingra U, Khanam R, Ilyas M, Dutta A, Mitra DK, Mehmood U, Deb S, Mahmud A, Hotwani A, Ali SM, Rahman S, Nizar A, Ame SM, Moin MI, Muhammad S, Chauhan A, Begum N, Khan W, Das S, Ahmed S, Hasan T, Khalid J, Rizvi SJR, Juma MH, Chowdhury NH, Kabir F, Aftab F, Quaiyum A, Manu A, Yoshida S, Bahl R, Rahman A, Pervin J, Winston J, Musonda P, Stringer JSA, Litch JA, Ghaemi MS, Moufarrej MN, Contrepois K, Chen S, Stelzer IA, Stanley N, Chang AL, Hammad GB, Wong RJ, Liu C, Quaintance CC, Culos A, Espinosa C, Xenochristou M, Becker M, Fallahzadeh R, Ganio E, Tsai AS, Gaudilliere D, Tsai ES, Han X, Ando K, Tingle M, Marić I, Wise PH, Winn VD, Druzin ML, Gibbs RS, Darmstadt GL, Murray JC, Shaw GM, Stevenson DK, Snyder MP, Quake SR, Angst MS, Gaudilliere B, Aghaeepour N. Multiomics Characterization of Preterm Birth in Low- and Middle-Income Countries. JAMA Netw Open 2020; 3:e2029655. [PMID: 33337494 PMCID: PMC7749442 DOI: 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2020.29655] [Citation(s) in RCA: 42] [Impact Index Per Article: 10.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/14/2022] Open
Abstract
IMPORTANCE Worldwide, preterm birth (PTB) is the single largest cause of deaths in the perinatal and neonatal period and is associated with increased morbidity in young children. The cause of PTB is multifactorial, and the development of generalizable biological models may enable early detection and guide therapeutic studies. OBJECTIVE To investigate the ability of transcriptomics and proteomics profiling of plasma and metabolomics analysis of urine to identify early biological measurements associated with PTB. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS This diagnostic/prognostic study analyzed plasma and urine samples collected from May 2014 to June 2017 from pregnant women in 5 biorepository cohorts in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs; ie, Matlab, Bangladesh; Lusaka, Zambia; Sylhet, Bangladesh; Karachi, Pakistan; and Pemba, Tanzania). These cohorts were established to study maternal and fetal outcomes and were supported by the Alliance for Maternal and Newborn Health Improvement and the Global Alliance to Prevent Prematurity and Stillbirth biorepositories. Data were analyzed from December 2018 to July 2019. EXPOSURES Blood and urine specimens that were collected early during pregnancy (median sampling time of 13.6 weeks of gestation, according to ultrasonography) were processed, stored, and shipped to the laboratories under uniform protocols. Plasma samples were assayed for targeted measurement of proteins and untargeted cell-free ribonucleic acid profiling; urine samples were assayed for metabolites. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES The PTB phenotype was defined as the delivery of a live infant before completing 37 weeks of gestation. RESULTS Of the 81 pregnant women included in this study, 39 had PTBs (48.1%) and 42 had term pregnancies (51.9%) (mean [SD] age of 24.8 [5.3] years). Univariate analysis demonstrated functional biological differences across the 5 cohorts. A cohort-adjusted machine learning algorithm was applied to each biological data set, and then a higher-level machine learning modeling combined the results into a final integrative model. The integrated model was more accurate, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.83 (95% CI, 0.72-0.91) compared with the models derived for each independent biological modality (transcriptomics AUROC, 0.73 [95% CI, 0.61-0.83]; metabolomics AUROC, 0.59 [95% CI, 0.47-0.72]; and proteomics AUROC, 0.75 [95% CI, 0.64-0.85]). Primary features associated with PTB included an inflammatory module as well as a metabolomic module measured in urine associated with the glutamine and glutamate metabolism and valine, leucine, and isoleucine biosynthesis pathways. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE This study found that, in LMICs and high PTB settings, major biological adaptations during term pregnancy follow a generalizable model and the predictive accuracy for PTB was augmented by combining various omics data sets, suggesting that PTB is a condition that manifests within multiple biological systems. These data sets, with machine learning partnerships, may be a key step in developing valuable predictive tests and intervention candidates for preventing PTB.
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Affiliation(s)
- Fyezah Jehan
- Department of Pediatrics and Child Health, Aga Khan University, Karachi, Pakistan
| | - Sunil Sazawal
- Centre for Public Health Kinetics, New Delhi, Delhi, India
| | - Abdullah H. Baqui
- International Center for Maternal and Newborn Health, Department of International Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland
| | - Muhammad Imran Nisar
- Department of Pediatrics and Child Health, Aga Khan University, Karachi, Pakistan
| | - Usha Dhingra
- Centre for Public Health Kinetics, New Delhi, Delhi, India
| | - Rasheda Khanam
- International Center for Maternal and Newborn Health, Department of International Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland
| | - Muhammad Ilyas
- Department of Pediatrics and Child Health, Aga Khan University, Karachi, Pakistan
| | - Arup Dutta
- Centre for Public Health Kinetics, New Delhi, Delhi, India
| | - Dipak K. Mitra
- International Center for Maternal and Newborn Health, Department of International Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland
| | - Usma Mehmood
- Department of Pediatrics and Child Health, Aga Khan University, Karachi, Pakistan
| | - Saikat Deb
- Centre for Public Health Kinetics, New Delhi, Delhi, India
- Public Health Laboratory-Ivo de Carneri, Pemba Island, Zanzibar
| | - Arif Mahmud
- International Center for Maternal and Newborn Health, Department of International Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland
| | - Aneeta Hotwani
- Department of Pediatrics and Child Health, Aga Khan University, Karachi, Pakistan
| | | | - Sayedur Rahman
- International Center for Maternal and Newborn Health, Department of International Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland
| | - Ambreen Nizar
- Department of Pediatrics and Child Health, Aga Khan University, Karachi, Pakistan
| | | | - Mamun Ibne Moin
- International Center for Maternal and Newborn Health, Department of International Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland
| | - Sajid Muhammad
- Department of Pediatrics and Child Health, Aga Khan University, Karachi, Pakistan
| | | | - Nazma Begum
- International Center for Maternal and Newborn Health, Department of International Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland
| | - Waqasuddin Khan
- Department of Pediatrics and Child Health, Aga Khan University, Karachi, Pakistan
| | - Sayan Das
- Centre for Public Health Kinetics, New Delhi, Delhi, India
| | - Salahuddin Ahmed
- International Center for Maternal and Newborn Health, Department of International Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland
| | - Tarik Hasan
- International Center for Maternal and Newborn Health, Department of International Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland
| | - Javairia Khalid
- Department of Pediatrics and Child Health, Aga Khan University, Karachi, Pakistan
| | - Syed Jafar Raza Rizvi
- International Center for Maternal and Newborn Health, Department of International Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland
| | | | - Nabidul Haque Chowdhury
- International Center for Maternal and Newborn Health, Department of International Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland
| | - Furqan Kabir
- Department of Pediatrics and Child Health, Aga Khan University, Karachi, Pakistan
| | - Fahad Aftab
- Centre for Public Health Kinetics, New Delhi, Delhi, India
| | - Abdul Quaiyum
- International Center for Maternal and Newborn Health, Department of International Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland
| | - Alexander Manu
- Maternal, Newborn, Child and Adolescent Health Research, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Sachiyo Yoshida
- Maternal, Newborn, Child and Adolescent Health Research, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Rajiv Bahl
- Maternal, Newborn, Child and Adolescent Health Research, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Anisur Rahman
- Matlab Health Research Centre, International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - Jesmin Pervin
- Maternal and Child Health Division, International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - Jennifer Winston
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill
| | - Patrick Musonda
- School of Public Health, University of Zambia, Lusaka, Zambia
| | - Jeffrey S. A. Stringer
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill
| | - James A. Litch
- Global Alliance to Prevent Prematurity and Stillbirth, Seattle, Washington
| | - Mohammad Sajjad Ghaemi
- Department of Anesthesiology, Perioperative and Pain Medicine, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, California
- Digital Technologies Research Centre, National Research Council Canada, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Mira N. Moufarrej
- Department of Bioengineering, Stanford University, Stanford, California
| | - Kévin Contrepois
- Department of Genetics, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, California
| | - Songjie Chen
- Department of Genetics, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, California
| | - Ina A. Stelzer
- Department of Anesthesiology, Perioperative and Pain Medicine, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, California
| | - Natalie Stanley
- Department of Anesthesiology, Perioperative and Pain Medicine, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, California
| | - Alan L. Chang
- Department of Anesthesiology, Perioperative and Pain Medicine, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, California
| | - Ghaith Bany Hammad
- Department of Anesthesiology, Perioperative and Pain Medicine, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, California
| | - Ronald J. Wong
- Division of Neonatal and Developmental Medicine, Department of Pediatrics, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, California
| | - Candace Liu
- Department of Anesthesiology, Perioperative and Pain Medicine, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, California
| | | | - Anthony Culos
- Department of Anesthesiology, Perioperative and Pain Medicine, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, California
| | - Camilo Espinosa
- Department of Anesthesiology, Perioperative and Pain Medicine, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, California
| | - Maria Xenochristou
- Department of Anesthesiology, Perioperative and Pain Medicine, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, California
| | - Martin Becker
- Department of Anesthesiology, Perioperative and Pain Medicine, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, California
| | - Ramin Fallahzadeh
- Department of Anesthesiology, Perioperative and Pain Medicine, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, California
| | - Edward Ganio
- Department of Anesthesiology, Perioperative and Pain Medicine, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, California
| | - Amy S. Tsai
- Department of Anesthesiology, Perioperative and Pain Medicine, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, California
| | - Dyani Gaudilliere
- Department of Anesthesiology, Perioperative and Pain Medicine, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, California
| | - Eileen S. Tsai
- Department of Anesthesiology, Perioperative and Pain Medicine, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, California
| | - Xiaoyuan Han
- Department of Anesthesiology, Perioperative and Pain Medicine, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, California
| | - Kazuo Ando
- Department of Anesthesiology, Perioperative and Pain Medicine, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, California
| | - Martha Tingle
- Department of Anesthesiology, Perioperative and Pain Medicine, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, California
| | - Ivana Marić
- Department of Anesthesiology, Perioperative and Pain Medicine, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, California
- Division of Neonatal and Developmental Medicine, Department of Pediatrics, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, California
| | - Paul H. Wise
- Division of Neonatal and Developmental Medicine, Department of Pediatrics, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, California
| | - Virginia D. Winn
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, California
| | - Maurice L. Druzin
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, California
| | - Ronald S. Gibbs
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, California
| | - Gary L. Darmstadt
- Division of Neonatal and Developmental Medicine, Department of Pediatrics, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, California
| | | | - Gary M. Shaw
- Division of Neonatal and Developmental Medicine, Department of Pediatrics, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, California
| | - David K. Stevenson
- Division of Neonatal and Developmental Medicine, Department of Pediatrics, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, California
| | - Michael P. Snyder
- Department of Genetics, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, California
| | - Stephen R. Quake
- Department of Bioengineering, Stanford University, Stanford, California
| | - Martin S. Angst
- Department of Anesthesiology, Perioperative and Pain Medicine, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, California
| | - Brice Gaudilliere
- Department of Anesthesiology, Perioperative and Pain Medicine, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, California
- Division of Neonatal and Developmental Medicine, Department of Pediatrics, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, California
| | - Nima Aghaeepour
- Department of Anesthesiology, Perioperative and Pain Medicine, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, California
- Division of Neonatal and Developmental Medicine, Department of Pediatrics, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, California
- Department of Biomedical Informatics, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, California
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Khokhar K, Devlin G, Gamble G, Nizar A, Vitta A, Nunn C. Impact of ethnicity on primary angioplasty (PAMI) outcome: The Waikato experience. Heart Lung Circ 2015. [DOI: 10.1016/j.hlc.2015.04.133] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
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16
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Khokhar K, Devlin G, Gamble G, Nizar A, Vitta A, Nunn C. Impact of ethnicity on primary angioplasty (PAMI) outcome : The Waikato experience. Heart Lung Circ 2015. [DOI: 10.1016/j.hlc.2015.06.764] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/23/2022]
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17
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Abstract
Modelling of infectious diseases is difficult, if not impossible. No epidemic has ever been truly predicted, rather than being merely noticed when it was already ongoing. Modelling the future course of an epidemic is similarly tenuous, as exemplified by ominous predictions during the last influenza pandemic leading to exaggerated national responses. The continuous evolution of microorganisms, the introduction of new pathogens into the human population and the interactions of a specific pathogen with the environment, vectors, intermediate hosts, reservoir animals and other microorganisms are far too complex to be predictable. Our environment is changing at an unprecedented rate, and human-related factors, which are essential components of any epidemic prediction model, are difficult to foresee in our increasingly dynamic societies. Any epidemiological model is, by definition, an abstraction of the real world, and fundamental assumptions and simplifications are therefore required. Indicator-based surveillance methods and, more recently, Internet biosurveillance systems can detect and monitor outbreaks of infections more rapidly and accurately than ever before. As the interactions between microorganisms, humans and the environment are too numerous and unexpected to be accurately represented in a mathematical model, we argue that prediction and model-based management of epidemics in their early phase are quite unlikely to become the norm.
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Affiliation(s)
- A Neuberger
- Unit of Infectious Diseases, Rambam Health Care Campus, Haifa, Israel; Department of Medicine B, Rambam Health Care Campus, Haifa, Israel
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