Developing climate change adaptation pathways in the agricultural sector based on robust decision-making approach (case study: Sefidroud Irrigation Network, Iran)

Allocation of water in the situation of climate change presents various uncertainties. Consequently, decisions must be made to ensure stability and functionality across different climatic scenarios. This study aims to examine the effectiveness of adaptation strategies in the agricultural sector, including a 5% increase in irrigation efficiency (S1) and a shift in irrigation method to Dry-DSR (direct seeded rice) under conditions of climatic uncertainty using a decision-making approach. The study focuses on the basin downstream of the Sefidroud dam, encompassing the Sefidroud irrigation and drainage network. Initially, basin modeling was conducted using the WEAP integrated management software for the period 2006-2020. Subsequently, the impact of climate change was assessed, considering RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 emission scenarios on surface water resources from 2021 to 2050. Runoff and cultivated area, both subject to uncertainty, were identified as key parameters. To evaluate strategy performance under different uncertainties and determine the efficacy of each strategy, regret and satisfaction approaches were employed. Results indicate a projected decrease in future rainfall by 3.5-11.8% compared to the base period, accompanied by an increase in maximum and minimum temperatures (0.83-1.62 °C and 1.15-1.33 °C, respectively). Inflow to the Sefidroud dam is expected to decrease by 13-28%. Presently, the Sefidroud irrigation and drainage network faces an annual deficit of 505.4 MCM, and if current trends persist with the impact of climate change, this shortfall may increase to 932.7 MCM annually. Furthermore, satisfaction indices for strategy (S2) are 0.77 in an optimistic scenario and 0.70 in strategy (S1). In a pessimistic scenario, these indices are 0.67 and 0.56, respectively. Notably, changing the irrigation method with Dry-DSR is recommended as a robust strategy, demonstrating the ability to maintain basin stability under a broad range of uncertainties and climate change scenarios. It is crucial to note that the results solely highlight the effects of climate change on water sources entering the Sefidroud dam. Considering anthropogenic activities upstream of the Sefidroud basin, water resource shortages are expected to increase. Therefore, reallocating water resources and implementing practical and appropriate measures in this area are imperative.

Development and application of novel risk indices for assessing heavy metal pollution in aquatic sediments

This study presents the development of a new sediment individual risk index (SIRI) and sediment complex risk index (SCRI) to assess heavy metal pollution in Anzali Wetland sediments. SIRI incorporates total metal concentrations, bioavailability, and sediment quality guidelines. SCRI, derived through principal component analysis (PCA), integrates SIRI for a comprehensive risk assessment. The newly developed indices were systematically classified. Results showed varying risk levels with SIRI values of Zn, Cr, Cu, Pb, Ni, As, Cd, and Hg as 0.82, 1.32, 0.98, 0.71, 1.41, 1.37, 0.79, and 0.79, respectively. Pb, Cd, and Hg posed very low risk, Cu and Zn posed low risk, and Cr, Ni, and As posed moderate risk. SCRI yielded an index value of 1.02, indicating a moderate level of risk for the studied stations. Pearson correlation analysis validated SCRI with a highly significant and strong correlation coefficient (0.923) with metal bioavailability, serving as a risk indicator.

Investigating heavy metal pollution in Anzali coastal wetland sediments: A statistical approach to source identification

In this study, the pollution and bioavailability of heavy metals in the sediments of Anzali Wetland were measured by analyzing data from sequential chemical extraction of sediments, risk assessment code (RAC), and sediment pollution indices. The average RAC results indicated that the risk from Zn, Cr, Cu, and Hg was low, while the risk from Pb, Ni, As, and Cd was moderate. To identify the sources of heavy metal pollution in the sediments of Anzali Wetland, multivariate statistical techniques such as Pearson correlation analysis, cluster analysis (CA), and principal component analysis (PCA) were employed. The results of the statistical analyses at a high significance level revealed that Zn, Cr, Cu, Pb, Ni, and As were attributed to natural sources. Additionally, the statistical analyses demonstrated that the concentrations of Cd and Hg in the sediments of Anzali Wetland were influenced by non-oil organic sources and atmospheric deposition, respectively.

Study of speciation and spatial variation of pollutants in Anzali Wetland (Iran) using linear regression, Kriging and multivariate analysis

Multivariate statistical techniques and geostatistical methods are among the important tools used in surface water quality management. They are widely used in interpreting data, identifying the pollution sources, understanding the spatial variation of parameters, and determining the places of monitoring stations. Therefore, in this study, spatial variation of water quality and pollutants in the Anzali Wetland water (Iran) was evaluated using multivariate statistical and Kriging methods. The values of different water quality parameters measured in six stations in the wetland water were subjected to cluster analysis (CA) and principal component analysis (PCA). Cluster analysis reduced the number of stations from six to four. The results of PCA showed that industrial and agricultural pollution sources could be responsible for the Anzali Wetland water quality. Then, the spatial variation maps of the PCA scores were generated using Kriging geostatistical method in the geographical information system (GIS) to investigate the pollution sources affecting the wetland parts. These maps illustrated that a great part of the wetland body was under the effect of agricultural sources, while the industrial sources affected the outlet and central parts. Finally, a comparison between two models (multiple linear regression (MLR) and Kriging) was made to assess their ability in predicting water quality parameters in the study area. The results showed the improvement of prediction using MLR, which was by 25%-97%, compared with Kriging. The results of the present study can be effectively used in the planning and implementation of future monitoring networks in the Anzali Wetland and other similar aquatic systems.

Management of unregulated agricultural nonpoint sources through water quality trading market

Water quality trading (WQT) could be an innovative policy to incentivize farmers to implement best management practices (BMPs) for their activities. This study focused on assessment of involving unregulated agricultural nonpoint sources (NPS) into the WQT market in Gharesoo watershed in the west of Iran. It also proposes a methodology to determine location-based trading ratios as well as environmental penalty cost to achieve a more well-designed market structure. Trading activities in different scenarios were described by trading volume (TV), participation rate (PR), total exchanged value (TEV), and other market parameters in order to achieve a better comparison of market performance. Results showed that, by applying NPS to the Gharesoo watershed, total phosphorous (TP) trading market could increase TV, PR, and TEV up to 11, 1.7 and 7.5 times, respectively, depending on which level of BMPs are implemented by them. Additionally, it could save 29% of the total cost of implementing a TP total maximum daily load in this watershed compared to the 'command and control' approach. Furthermore, the agricultural sector could profit by $5.49 million (or $75/ha) by choosing solutions such as terrace systems and filter strips to register into the market. This profit can be allocated to the development of new agricultural technologies.

Multiple interactive pollutants in water quality trading

Efficient environmental management calls for the consideration of multiple pollutants, for which two main types of transferable discharge permit (TDP) program have been described: separate permits that manage each pollutant individually in separate markets, with each permit based on the quantity of the pollutant or its environmental effects, and weighted-sum permits that aggregate several pollutants as a single commodity to be traded in a single market. In this paper, we perform a mathematical analysis of TDP programs for multiple pollutants that jointly affect the environment (i.e., interactive pollutants) and demonstrate the practicality of this approach for cost-efficient maintenance of river water quality. For interactive pollutants, the relative weighting factors are functions of the water quality impacts, marginal damage function, and marginal treatment costs at optimality. We derive the optimal set of weighting factors required by this approach for important scenarios for multiple interactive pollutants and propose using an analytical elasticity of substitution function to estimate damage functions for these scenarios. We evaluate the applicability of this approach using a hypothetical example that considers two interactive pollutants. We compare the weighted-sum permit approach for interactive pollutants with individual permit systems and TDP programs for multiple additive pollutants. We conclude by discussing practical considerations and implementation issues that result from the application of weighted-sum permit programs.

How to quantify sustainable development: a risk-based approach to water quality management

Since the term was coined in the Brundtland report in 1987, the issue of sustainable development has been challenged in terms of quantification. Different policy options may lend themselves more or less to the underlying principles of sustainability, but no analytical tools are available for a more in-depth assessment of the degree of sustainability. Overall, there are two major schools of thought employing the sustainability concept in managerial decisions: those of measuring and those of monitoring. Measurement of relative sustainability is the key issue in bridging the gap between theory and practice of sustainability of water resources systems. The objective of this study is to develop a practical tool for quantifying and assessing the degree of relative sustainability of water quality systems based on risk-based indicators, including reliability, resilience, and vulnerability. Current work on the Karoun River, the largest river in Iran, has included the development of an integrated model consisting of two main parts: a water quality simulation subroutine to evaluate Dissolved Oxygen Biological Oxygen Demand (DO-BOD) response, and an estimation of risk-based indicators subroutine via the First Order Reliability Method (FORM) and Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS). We also developed a simple waste load allocation model via Least Cost and Uniform Treatment approaches in order to consider the optimal point of pollutants control costs given a desired reliability value which addresses DO in two different targets. The Risk-based approach developed herein, particularly via the FORM technique, appears to be an appropriately efficient tool for estimating the relative sustainability. Moreover, our results in the Karoun system indicate that significant changes in sustainability values are possible through dedicating money for treatment and strict pollution controls while simultaneously requiring a technical advance along change in current attitudes for environment protection.

Drug-induced methaemoglobinaemia following elective coronary artery bypass grafting

Dapsone can alter the oxygen carrying capacity of haemoglobin. Some patients are more susceptible to these effects because of genetic factors, comorbidities or peri-operative factors such as anaemia. We present a 57-year-old lady who underwent elective coronary artery bypass grafting. Deterioration in neurological and respiratory condition prompted a review of her drug treatment. A combination of long-term dapsone therapy, co-existing cardiac and respiratory disease, postoperative anaemia and renal impairment contributed to her decompensation, despite a relatively low level of methaemoglobin. Successful management included stopping dapsone therapy, supportive care and administration of ascorbic acid.

Anaesthesia for awake craniotomy--evolution of a technique that facilitates awake neurological testing

BACKGROUND

There is an increasing trend towards performing craniotomy awake. The challenge for the anaesthetist is to provide adequate analgesia and sedation, haemodynamic stability, and a safe airway, with an awake, cooperative patient for neurological testing.

METHODS

The records of all patients who had awake craniotomy at our institution were reviewed. Patients were divided into three groups according to anaesthetic technique. Patients in Group 1 were sedated throughout the procedure. Patients in Groups 2 and 3 had an asleep-awake-asleep technique. Those in Group 2 were anaesthetized with a propofol infusion and fentanyl, and breathed spontaneously through a laryngeal mask airway (LMA). Patients in Group 3 had total i.v. anaesthesia with propofol and remifentanil, and ventilation was controlled using an LMA. We noted the incidence of complications in each group.

RESULTS

There were 99 procedures carried out between 1989 and 2002. Group 3 had the fewest complications. No patients in Group 3 developed hypercapnia (E'(CO(2)) >6 kPa), compared with all of the patients in Group 2. Patients in Group 1 had no E'(CO(2)) monitoring, but 7% developed airway obstruction. No patients in Group 3 required additional analgesia for pain, compared with 70% of patients in Group 2.

CONCLUSIONS

We have developed a technique for craniotomy, which facilitates awake neurological testing, is safe, and has good patient satisfaction.

Processes and outcomes of training on rapid assessment and response methods on injecting drug use and related HIV infection in the Russian Federation

In September 1997, Médecins Sans Frontières-Holland (MSF-H) began a project to provide training and support for HIV/AIDS prevention among injecting drug users (IDUs) in the Russian Federation, focusing on the use of the World Health Organization Rapid Assessment and Response Guide on Injecting Drug Use, and the European Peer Support Manual. As part of the training, participants are asked to carry out a rapid situation assessment (RSA) in their city or region as a major step towards designing and implementing an effective program to prevent HIV transmission among IDUs. This paper focuses on the first four training cycles of the programme (from January 1998 to January 1999), in which 89 health professionals and others from 32 Russian cities took part. A total of 28 rapid situation assessments were completed or almost completed by participants during these four cycles. The paper provides an overview of the methods used and major problems faced by participants undertaking these assessments, as well as summarising the 14 harm reduction programmes which resulted.