Estimating Post-treatment Recurrence After Multidrug-Resistant Tuberculosis Treatment Among Patients With and Without Human Immunodeficiency Virus: The Impact of Assumptions About Death and Missing Follow-up

BACKGROUND

Quantification of recurrence risk following successful treatment is crucial to evaluating regimens for multidrug- or rifampicin-resistant (MDR/RR) tuberculosis (TB). However, such analyses are complicated when some patients die or become lost during post-treatment follow-up.

METHODS

We analyzed data on 1991 patients who successfully completed a longer MDR/RR-TB regimen containing bedaquiline and/or delamanid between 2015 and 2018 in 16 countries. Using 5 approaches for handling post-treatment deaths, we estimated 6-month post-treatment TB recurrence risk overall and by HIV status. We used inverse-probability weighting to account for patients with missing follow-up and investigated the impact of potential bias from excluding these patients without applying inverse-probability weights.

RESULTS

The estimated TB recurrence risk was 7.4/1000 (95% credible interval: 3.3-12.8) when deaths were handled as non-recurrences and 7.6/1000 (3.3-13.0) when deaths were censored and inverse-probability weights were applied to account for the excluded deaths. The estimated risks of composite recurrence outcomes were 25.5 (15.3-38.1), 11.7 (6.4-18.2), and 8.6 (4.1-14.4) per 1000 for recurrence or (1) any death, (2) death with unknown or TB-related cause, or (3) TB-related death, respectively. Corresponding relative risks for HIV status varied in direction and magnitude. Exclusion of patients with missing follow-up without inverse-probability weighting had a small impact on estimates.

CONCLUSIONS

The estimated 6-month TB recurrence risk was low, and the association with HIV status was inconclusive due to few recurrence events. Estimation of post-treatment recurrence will be enhanced by explicit assumptions about deaths and appropriate adjustment for missing follow-up data.

Estimating post-treatment recurrence after multidrug-resistant tuberculosis treatment among patients with and without HIV: the impact of assumptions about death and missing follow-up

Background

Quantification of recurrence risk following successful treatment is crucial to evaluating regimens for multidrug- or rifampicin-resistant (MDR/RR) tuberculosis (TB). However, such analyses are complicated when some patients die or become lost during post-treatment-follow-up.

Methods

We analyzed data on 1,991 patients who successfully completed a longer MDR/RR-TB regimen containing bedaquiline and/or delamanid between 2015 and 2018 in 16 countries. Using five approaches for handling post-treatment deaths, we estimated the six-month post-treatment TB recurrence risk overall, and by HIV status. We used inverse-probability-weighting to account for patients with missing follow-up and investigated the impact of potential bias from excluding these patients without applying inverse-probability weights.

Results

The estimated TB recurrence risk was 6.6 per 1000 (95% confidence interval (CI):3.2,11.2) when deaths were handled as non-recurrences, and 6.7 per 1000 (95% CI:2.8,12.2) when deaths were censored and inverse-probability weights were applied to account for the excluded deaths. The estimated risk of composite recurrence outcomes were 24.2 (95% CI:14.1,37.0), 10.5 (95% CI:5.6,16.6), and 7.8 (95% CI:3.9,13.2) per 1000 for recurrence or 1) any death, 2) death with unknown or TB-related cause, 3) TB-related death, respectively. Corresponding relative risks for HIV status varied in direction and magnitude. Exclusion of patients with missing follow-up without inverse-probability-weighting had a small but apparent impact on estimates.

Conclusion

The estimated six-month TB recurrence risk was low, and the association with HIV status was inconclusive due to few recurrence events. Estimation of post-treatment recurrence will be enhanced by explicit assumptions about deaths and appropriate adjustment for missing follow-up data.

Mapping tuberculosis prevalence in Ethiopia using geospatial meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Reliable and detailed data on the prevalence of tuberculosis (TB) with sub-national estimates are scarce in Ethiopia. We address this knowledge gap by spatially predicting the national, sub-national and local prevalence of TB, and identifying drivers of TB prevalence across the country.

METHODS

TB prevalence data were obtained from the Ethiopia national TB prevalence survey and from a comprehensive review of published reports. Geospatial covariates were obtained from publicly available sources. A random effects meta-analysis was used to estimate a pooled prevalence of TB at the national level, and model-based geostatistics were used to estimate the spatial variation of TB prevalence at sub-national and local levels. Within the MBG Plugin Framework, a logistic regression model was fitted to TB prevalence data using both fixed covariate effects and spatial random effects to identify drivers of TB and to predict the prevalence of TB.

RESULTS

The overall pooled prevalence of TB in Ethiopia was 0.19% [95% confidence intervals (CI): 0.12%-0.28%]. There was a high degree of heterogeneity in the prevalence of TB (I2 96.4%, P <0.001), which varied by geographical locations, data collection periods and diagnostic methods. The highest prevalence of TB was observed in Dire Dawa (0.96%), Gambela (0.88%), Somali (0.42%), Addis Ababa (0.28%) and Afar (0.24%) regions. Nationally, there was a decline in TB prevalence from 0.18% in 2001 to 0.04% in 2009. However, prevalence increased back to 0.29% in 2014. Substantial spatial variation of TB prevalence was observed at a regional level, with a higher prevalence observed in the border regions, and at a local level within regions. The spatial distribution of TB prevalence was positively associated with population density.

CONCLUSION

The results of this study showed that TB prevalence varied substantially at sub-national and local levels in Ethiopia. Spatial patterns were associated with population density. These results suggest that targeted interventions in high-risk areas may reduce the burden of TB in Ethiopia and additional data collection would be required to make further inferences on TB prevalence in areas that lack data.

Safety and effectiveness outcomes from a 14-country cohort of patients with multi-drug resistant tuberculosis treated concomitantly with bedaquiline, delamanid and other second-line drugs

Background

Concomitant use of bedaquiline (Bdq) and delamanid (Dlm) for multi-drug/rifampicin resistant tuberculosis (MDR/RR-TB) has raised concerns about a potentially poor risk-benefit ratio. Yet this combination is an important alternative for patients infected with strains of TB with complex drug resistance profiles or who cannot tolerate other therapies. We assessed safety and treatment outcomes of MDR/RR-TB patients receiving concomitant Bdq and Dlm, along with other second-line anti-TB drugs.

Methods

We conducted a multi-centric, prospective observational cohort study across 14 countries among patients receiving concomitant Bdq-Dlm treatment. Patients were recruited between April 2015 and September 2018 and were followed until the end of treatment. All serious adverse events and adverse events of special interest (AESI), leading to a treatment change, or judged significant by a clinician, were systematically monitored and documented.

Results

Overall, 472 patients received Bdq and Dlm concomitantly. A large majority also received linezolid (89.6%) and clofazimine (84.5%). Nearly all (90.3%) had extensive disease; most (74.2%) had resistance to fluoroquinolones. The most common AESI were peripheral neuropathy (134, 28.4%) and electrolyte depletion (94, 19.9%). Acute kidney injury and myelosuppression were seen in 40 (8.5%) and 24 (5.1%) of patients, respectively. QT prolongation occurred in 7 patients (1.5%). Overall, 78.0% (358/458) had successful treatment outcomes, 8.9% died, and 7.2% experienced treatment failure.

Conclusions

Concomitant use of Bdq and Dlm, along with linezolid and clofazimine, is safe and effective for MDR/RR-TB patients with extensive disease. Using these drugs concomitantly is a good therapeutic option for patients with resistance to many anti-TB drugs.

Safety of Treatment Regimens Containing Bedaquiline and Delamanid in the endTB Cohort

BACKGROUND

Safety of treatment for multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR/RR-TB) can be an obstacle to treatment completion. Evaluate safety of longer MDR/RR-TB regimens containing bedaquiline and/or delamanid.

METHODS

Multicentre (16 countries), prospective, observational study reporting incidence and frequency of clinically relevant adverse events of special interest (AESIs) among patients who received MDR/RR-TB treatment containing bedaquiline and/or delamanid. The AESIs were defined a priori as important events caused by bedaquiline, delamanid, linezolid, injectables, and other commonly used drugs. Occurrence of these events was also reported by exposure to the likely causative agent.

RESULTS

Among 2296 patients, the most common clinically relevant AESIs were peripheral neuropathy (26.4%), electrolyte depletion (26.0%), and hearing loss (13.2%) with an incidence per 1000 person months of treatment, 1000 person-months of treatment 21.5 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 19.8-23.2), 20.7 (95% CI: 19.1-22.4), and 9.7 (95% CI: 8.6-10.8), respectively. QT interval was prolonged in 2.7% or 1.8 (95% CI: 1.4-2.3)/1000 person-months of treatment. Patients receiving injectables (N = 925) and linezolid (N = 1826) were most likely to experience events during exposure. Hearing loss, acute renal failure, or electrolyte depletion occurred in 36.8% or 72.8 (95% CI: 66.0-80.0) times/1000 person-months of injectable drug exposure. Peripheral neuropathy, optic neuritis, and/or myelosuppression occurred in 27.8% or 22.8 (95% CI: 20.9-24.8) times/1000 patient-months of linezolid exposure.

CONCLUSIONS

AEs often related to linezolid and injectable drugs were more common than those frequently attributed to bedaquiline and delamanid. MDR-TB treatment monitoring and drug durations should reflect expected safety profiles of drug combinations.

CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION

NCT02754765.

Culture Conversion in Patients Treated with Bedaquiline and/or Delamanid. A Prospective Multicountry Study

Rationale: Bedaquiline and delamanid offer the possibility of more effective and less toxic treatment for multidrug-resistant (MDR) tuberculosis (TB). With this treatment, however, some patients remain at high risk for an unfavorable treatment outcome. The endTB Observational Study is the largest multicountry cohort of patients with rifampin-resistant TB or MDR-TB treated in routine care with delamanid- and/or bedaquiline-containing regimens according to World Health Organization guidance.

Objectives: We report the frequency of sputum culture conversion within 6 months of treatment initiation and the risk factors for nonconversion.

Methods: We included patients with a positive baseline culture who initiated a first endTB regimen before April 2018. Two consecutive negative cultures collected 15 days or more apart constituted culture conversion. We used generalized mixed models to derive marginal predictions for the probability of culture conversion in key subgroups.

Measurements and Main Results: A total of 1,109 patients initiated a multidrug treatment containing bedaquiline (63%), delamanid (27%), or both (10%). Of these, 939 (85%) experienced culture conversion within 6 months. In adjusted analyses, patients with HIV had a lower probability of conversion (0.73; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.62–0.84) than patients without HIV (0.84; 95% CI, 0.79–0.90; P = 0.03). Patients with both cavitary disease and highly positive sputum smear had a lower probability of conversion (0.68; 95% CI, 0.57–0.79) relative to patients without either (0.89; 95% CI, 0.84–0.95; P = 0.0004). Hepatitis C infection, diabetes mellitus or glucose intolerance, and baseline resistance were not associated with conversion.

Conclusions: Frequent sputum conversion in patients with rifampin-resistant TB or MDR-TB who were treated with bedaquiline and/or delamanid underscores the need for urgent expanded access to these drugs. There is a need to optimize treatment for patients with HIV and extensive disease.

Setting up pharmacovigilance based on available endTB Project data for bedaquiline

SETTING: Active pharmacovigilance (PV) is recommended for TB programmes, notably for multidrug-resistant TB (MDR-TB) patients treated with new drugs. Launched with the support of UNITAID in April 2015, endTB (Expand New Drug markets for TB) facilitated treatment with bedaquiline (BDQ) and/or delamanid of >2600 patients in 17 countries, and contributed to the creation of a central PV unit (PVU).OBJECTIVE: To explain the endTB PVU process by describing the serious adverse events (SAEs) experienced by patients who received BDQ-containing regimens.DESIGN: The overall PV strategy was in line with the ‘advanced´ WHO active TB drug safety monitoring and management (aDSM) system. All adverse events (AEs) of clinical significance were followed up; the PVU focused on signal detection from SAEs.RESULTS and CONCLUSION: Between 1 April 2015 and 31 March 2019, the PVU received and assessed 626 SAEs experienced by 417 BDQ patients. A board of MDR-TB/PV experts reviewed unexpected and possibly drug-related SAEs to detect safety signals. The experts communicated on clusters of risks factors, notably polypharmacy and off-label drug use, encouraging a patient-centred approach of care. Organising advanced PV in routine care is possible but demanding. It is reasonable to expect local/national programmes to focus on clinical management, and to limit reporting to aDSM systems to key data, such as the SAEs.

Culture Conversion at 6 Months in Patients Receiving Delamanid-containing Regimens for the Treatment of Multidrug-resistant Tuberculosis

Delamanid should be effective against highly resistant strains of Mycobacteriumtuberculosis, but uptake has been slow globally. In the endTB (expand new drug markets for TB) Observational Study, which enrolled a large, heterogeneous cohorts of patients receiving delamanid as part of a multidrug regimen, 80% of participants experienced sputum culture conversion within 6 months. Clinical Trials Registration. NCT02754765.

The Burden of HIV/AIDS in Ethiopia from 1990 to 2016: Evidence from the Global Burden of Diseases 2016 Study

Background

The burden of HIV/AIDS in Ethiopia has not been comprehensively assessed over the last two decades. In this study, we used the 2016 Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries and Risk factors (GBD) data to analyze the incidence, prevalence, mortality and Disability-adjusted Life Years Lost (DALY) rates of Human Immunodeficiency Virus / Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (HIV/AIDS) in Ethiopia over the last 26 years.

Methods

The GBD 2016 used a wide range of data source for Ethiopia such as verbal autopsy (VA), surveys, reports of the Federal Ministry of Health and the United Nations (UN) and published scientific articles. The modified United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) Spectrum model was used to estimate the incidence and mortality rates for HIV/AIDS.

Results

In 2016, an estimated 36,990 new HIV infections (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 8775-80262), 670,906 prevalent HIV cases (95% UI: 568,268–798,970) and 19,999 HIV deaths (95% UI: 16426-24412) occurred in Ethiopia. The HIV/AIDS incidence rate peaked in 1995 and declined by 6.3% annually for both sexes with a total reduction of 77% between 1990 and 2016. The annualized HIV/AIDS mortality rate reduction during 1990 to 2016 for both sexes was 0.4%.

Conclusions

Ethiopia has achieved the 50% reduction of the incidence rate of HIV/AIDS based on the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) target. However, the decline in HIV/AIDS mortality rate has been comparatively slow. The country should strengthen the HIV/AIDS detection and treatment programs at community level to achieve its targets during the Sustainable Development Program (SDGs)-era.

Tuberculosis Burden in Ethiopia from 1990 to 2016: Evidence from the Global Burden of Diseases 2016 Study

Background

The burden of Tuberculosis (TB) has not been comprehensively evaluated over the last 25 years in Ethiopia. In this study, we used the 2016 Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries and Risk Factors (GBD) data to analyze the incidence, prevalence and mortality rates of tuberculosis (TB) in Ethiopia over the last 26 years.

Methods

The GBD 2016 is a mathematical modeling using different data source for Ethiopia such as verbal autopsy (VA), prevalence surveys and annual case notifications. Age and sex specific causes of death for TB were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble Modeling (CODEm). We used the available data such as annual notifications and prevalence surveys as an input to estimate incidence and prevalence rates respectively using DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool.

Results

In 2016, we estimated 219,186 (95%UI: 182,977–265,292) new, 151,602 (95% UI: 126,054–180,976) prevalent TB cases and 48,910(95% UI: 40,310–58,195) TB deaths. The age-standardized TB incidence rate decreased from 201.6/100,000 to 88.5/100,000 (with a total decline of 56%) between 1990 to 2016. Similarly, the age-standardized TB mortality rate declined from 393.8/100,000 to 100/100,000 between 1990 and 2016(with a total decline of 75%).

Conclusions

Ethiopia has achieved the 50% reduction of most of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) targets related to TB. However, the decline of TB incidence and prevalence rates has been comparatively slow. The country should strengthen the TB case detection and treatment programs at community level to achieve its targets during the Sustainable Development Program (SDGs)-era.

Assessment of national tuberculosis and HIV collaborative program implementation status in health care settings of Ethiopia

BACKGROUND

Ethiopia has adopted the World Health Organization recommendation for TB and HIV collaborative activities since 2004. These collaborative activities have been scaled up in a phased manner and covered large number of health facilities across the nation. However, there is scarcity of information on implementation of these collaborative activities in Ethiopia.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the status of implementation of TB and HIV collaborative activities in health facility settings of Ethiopia.

METHODS

A cross sectional study mainly quantitative supplemented by qualitative methods was undertaken from May 10 to July 10, 2014 in 132 selected health facilities. Statistical analysis was performed using SPSS version 20.

RESULT

About 81% of the respondents in the selected health facilities reported the screening of People Living with HIV in care for TB at every follow up visit, whereas, only 28.7% of those health facilities reported the screening of PLWHIV for TB at enrolment to HIV chronic care. About half of the public health facilities assessed were not implementing Isoniazid Preventive Therapy and only 18.2% of eligible clients were getting this Preventive Therapy. Among the co-infected patients, 32% were not linked to chronic care services and 45.3% were not getting ART during TB treatment. On the other hand, about two thirds of the co-infected patients are getting the Cotrimoxazole Prophylaxis Therapy.

CONCLUSION

Most of anti-TB and HIV collaborative activities were not implemented as expected in the health facilities. Thus it needs integration from the ministry to the health facilities level in order to improve the collaborative activities.