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Nunes MC, Thommes E, Fröhlich H, Flahault A, Arino J, Baguelin M, Biggerstaff M, Bizel-Bizellot G, Borchering R, Cacciapaglia G, Cauchemez S, Barbier--Chebbah A, Claussen C, Choirat C, Cojocaru M, Commaille-Chapus C, Hon C, Kong J, Lambert N, Lauer KB, Lehr T, Mahe C, Marechal V, Mebarki A, Moghadas S, Niehus R, Opatowski L, Parino F, Pruvost G, Schuppert A, Thiébaut R, Thomas-Bachli A, Viboud C, Wu J, Crépey P, Coudeville L. Redefining pandemic preparedness: Multidisciplinary insights from the CERP modelling workshop in infectious diseases, workshop report. Infect Dis Model 2024; 9:501-518. [PMID: 38445252 PMCID: PMC10912817 DOI: 10.1016/j.idm.2024.02.008] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/18/2024] [Revised: 02/07/2024] [Accepted: 02/16/2024] [Indexed: 03/07/2024] Open
Abstract
In July 2023, the Center of Excellence in Respiratory Pathogens organized a two-day workshop on infectious diseases modelling and the lessons learnt from the Covid-19 pandemic. This report summarizes the rich discussions that occurred during the workshop. The workshop participants discussed multisource data integration and highlighted the benefits of combining traditional surveillance with more novel data sources like mobility data, social media, and wastewater monitoring. Significant advancements were noted in the development of predictive models, with examples from various countries showcasing the use of machine learning and artificial intelligence in detecting and monitoring disease trends. The role of open collaboration between various stakeholders in modelling was stressed, advocating for the continuation of such partnerships beyond the pandemic. A major gap identified was the absence of a common international framework for data sharing, which is crucial for global pandemic preparedness. Overall, the workshop underscored the need for robust, adaptable modelling frameworks and the integration of different data sources and collaboration across sectors, as key elements in enhancing future pandemic response and preparedness.
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Affiliation(s)
- Marta C. Nunes
- Center of Excellence in Respiratory Pathogens (CERP), Hospices Civils de Lyon (HCL) and Centre International de Recherche en Infectiologie (CIRI), Équipe Santé Publique, Épidémiologie et Écologie Évolutive des Maladies Infectieuses (PHE3ID), Inserm U1111, CNRS UMR5308, ENS de Lyon, Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1, Lyon, France
- South African Medical Research Council, Vaccines & Infectious Diseases Analytics Research Unit, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Edward Thommes
- New Products and Innovation (NPI), Sanofi Vaccines (Global), Toronto, Ontario, Canada
- Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Guelph, Guelph, Ontario, Canada
| | - Holger Fröhlich
- Fraunhofer Institute for Algorithms and Scientific Computing (SCAI), Department of Bioinformatics, Schloss Birlinghoven, Sankt Augustin, Germany
- University of Bonn, Bonn-Aachen International Center for IT (b-it), Bonn, Germany
| | - Antoine Flahault
- Institute of Global Health, Faculty of Medicine, University of Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland and Swiss School of Public Health, Zürich, Switzerland
| | - Julien Arino
- Department of Mathematics, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada
| | - Marc Baguelin
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK
- Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Matthew Biggerstaff
- National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases (NCIRD), US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), Atlanta, GA, USA
| | - Gaston Bizel-Bizellot
- Departement of Computational Biology, Departement of Global Health, Institut Pasteur, Paris, France
| | - Rebecca Borchering
- National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases (NCIRD), US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), Atlanta, GA, USA
| | - Giacomo Cacciapaglia
- Institut de Physique des Deux Infinis de Lyon (IP2I), UMR5822, IN2P3/CNRS, Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1, Villeurbanne, France
| | - Simon Cauchemez
- Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases Unit, Institut Pasteur, Université Paris Cité, UMR2000 CNRS, Paris, France
| | - Alex Barbier--Chebbah
- Decision and Bayesian Computation, Institut Pasteur, Université Paris Cité, CNRS UMR 3571, France
| | - Carsten Claussen
- Fraunhofer-Institute for Translational Medicine and Pharmacology, Hamburg, Germany
| | - Christine Choirat
- Institute of Global Health, Faculty of Medicine, University of Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Monica Cojocaru
- Mathematics & Statistics Department, College of Engineering and Physical Sciences, University of Guelph, Guelph, Ontario, Canada
| | | | - Chitin Hon
- Respiratory Disease AI Laboratory on Epidemic Intelligence and Medical Big Data Instrument Applications, Department of Engineering Science, Faculty of Innovation Engineering, Macau University of Science and Technology, Taipa, Macau, China
| | - Jude Kong
- Africa-Canada Artificial Intelligence and Data Innovation Consortium (ACADIC), Global South Artificial Intelligence for Pandemic and Epidemic Preparedness and Response Network (AI4PEP), Laboratory for Industrial and Applied Mathematics (LIAM), Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | | | | | - Thorsten Lehr
- Clinical Pharmacy, Saarland University, Saarbrücken, Germany
| | | | - Vincent Marechal
- Sorbonne Université, INSERM, Centre de Recherche Saint-Antoine, Paris, France
| | | | - Seyed Moghadas
- Agent-Based Modelling Laboratory, York University, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Rene Niehus
- European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC), Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Lulla Opatowski
- UMR 1018, Team “Anti-infective Evasion and Pharmacoepidemiology”, Université Paris-Saclay, UVSQ, INSERM, France
- Epidemiology and Modelling of Antibiotic Evasion, Institut Pasteur, Université Paris Cité, Paris, France
| | - Francesco Parino
- Sorbonne Université, INSERM, Pierre Louis Institute of Epidemiology and Public Health, Paris, France
| | | | - Andreas Schuppert
- Institute for Computational Biomedicine, RWTH Aachen University, Aachen, Germany
| | - Rodolphe Thiébaut
- Bordeaux University, Department of Public Health, Inserm UMR 1219 Bordeaux Population Health Research Center, Inria SISTM, Bordeaux, France
| | | | - Cecile Viboud
- Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA
| | - Jianhong Wu
- York Emergency Mitigation, Engagement, Response, and Governance Institute, Laboratory for Industrial and Applied Mathematics, York University, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Pascal Crépey
- EHESP, Université de Rennes, CNRS, IEP Rennes, Arènes - UMR 6051, RSMS – Inserm U 1309, Rennes, France
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Forsyth J, Wang L, Thomas-Bachli A. COVID-19 case rates, spatial mobility, and neighbourhood socioeconomic characteristics in Toronto: a spatial-temporal analysis. Can J Public Health 2023; 114:806-822. [PMID: 37526916 PMCID: PMC10486339 DOI: 10.17269/s41997-023-00791-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/21/2022] [Accepted: 05/29/2023] [Indexed: 08/02/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES This study has two primary research objectives: (1) to investigate the spatial clustering pattern of mobility reductions and COVID-19 cases in Toronto and their relationships with marginalized populations, and (2) to identify the most relevant socioeconomic characteristics that relate to human mobility and COVID-19 case rates in Toronto's neighbourhoods during five distinct time periods of the pandemic. METHODS Using a spatial-quantitative approach, we combined hot spot analyses, Pearson correlation analyses, and Wilcoxon two-sample tests to analyze datasets including COVID-19 cases, a mobile device-derived indicator measuring neighbourhood-level time away from home (i.e., mobility), and socioeconomic data from 2016 census and Ontario Marginalization Index. Temporal variations among pandemic phases were examined as well. RESULTS The paper identified important spatial clustering patterns of mobility reductions and COVID-19 cases in Toronto, as well as their relationships with marginalized populations. COVID-19 hot spots were in more materially deprived neighbourhood clusters that had more essential workers and people who spent more time away from home. While the spatial pattern of clusters of COVID-19 cases and mobility shifted slightly over time, the group socioeconomic characteristics that clusters shared remained similar in all but the first time period. A series of maps and visualizations were created to highlight the dynamic spatiotemporal patterns. CONCLUSION Toronto's neighbourhoods have experienced the COVID-19 pandemic in significantly different ways, with hot spots of COVID-19 cases occurring in more materially and racially marginalized communities that are less likely to reduce their mobility. The study provides solid evidence in a Canadian context to enhance policy making and provide a deeper understanding of the social determinants of health in Toronto during the COVID-19 pandemic.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jack Forsyth
- Toronto Metropolitan University, Toronto, ON, Canada
- BlueDot, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Lu Wang
- Toronto Metropolitan University, Toronto, ON, Canada.
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Huber C, Watts A, Thomas-Bachli A, McIntyre E, Tuite A, Khan K, Cetron M, Merrill RD. Using spatial and population mobility models to inform outbreak response approaches in the Ebola affected area, Democratic Republic of the Congo, 2018-2020. Spat Spatiotemporal Epidemiol 2023; 44:100558. [PMID: 36707191 PMCID: PMC10864106 DOI: 10.1016/j.sste.2022.100558] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/23/2021] [Revised: 06/22/2022] [Accepted: 12/01/2022] [Indexed: 12/12/2022]
Abstract
The Democratic Republic of the Congo's (DRC) 10th known Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak occurred between August 1, 2018 and June 25, 2020, and was the largest EVD outbreak in the country's history. During this outbreak, the DRC Ministry of Health initiated traveller health screening at points of control (POC, locations not on the border) and points of entry (POE) to minimize disease translocation via ground and air travel. We sought to develop a model-based approach that could be applied in future outbreaks to inform decisions for optimizing POC and POE placement, and allocation of resources more broadly, to mitigate the risk of disease translocation associated with ground-level population mobility. We applied a parameter-free mobility model, the radiation model, to estimate likelihood of ground travel between selected origin locations (including Beni, DRC) and surrounding population centres, based on population size and drive-time. We then performed a road network route analysis and included estimated population movement results to calculate the proportionate volume of travellers who would move along each road segment; this reflects the proportion of travellers that could be screened at a POC or POE. For Beni, the road segments estimated to have the highest proportion of travellers that could be screened were part of routes into Uganda and Rwanda. Conversely, road segments that were part of routes to other population centres within the DRC were estimated to have relatively lower proportions. We observed a posteriori that, in many instances, our results aligned with locations that were selected for actual POC or POE placement through more time-consuming methods. This study has demonstrated that mobility models and simple spatial techniques can help identify potential locations for health screening at newly placed POC or existing POE during public health emergencies based on expected movement patterns. Importantly, we have provided methods to estimate the proportionate volume of travellers that POC or POE screening measures would assess based on their location. This is critical information in outbreak situations when timely decisions must be made to implement public health interventions that reach the most individuals across a network.
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Affiliation(s)
- Carmen Huber
- BlueDot, 207 Queens Quay West #820, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.
| | - Alexander Watts
- BlueDot, 207 Queens Quay West #820, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | | | - Elvira McIntyre
- Division of Global Migration and Quarantine, National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases, 1600 Clifton Road, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America (USA); Perspecta Inc., 15052 Conference Center Drive, Chantilly, Virginia, United States of America (USA)
| | - Ashleigh Tuite
- BlueDot, 207 Queens Quay West #820, Toronto, Ontario, Canada; Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, 155 College Street, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Kamran Khan
- BlueDot, 207 Queens Quay West #820, Toronto, Ontario, Canada; Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael's Hospital, 38 Shuter St, Toronto, Ontario, Canada; Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, University of Toronto, 1 King's College Circle, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Martin Cetron
- Division of Global Migration and Quarantine, National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases, 1600 Clifton Road, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America (USA)
| | - Rebecca D Merrill
- Division of Global Migration and Quarantine, National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases, 1600 Clifton Road, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America (USA)
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Marwah A, Ogoina D, Au NH, Gibb NP, Portillo MT, Thomas-Bachli A, Demarsh PA, Bogoch II, Khan K. Estimating the size of the monkeypox virus outbreak in Nigeria and implications for global control. J Travel Med 2022; 29:6887147. [PMID: 36495194 DOI: 10.1093/jtm/taac149] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/24/2022] [Accepted: 11/28/2022] [Indexed: 12/14/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND A multi-country outbreak caused by monkeypox virus (MPXV) has been unfolding across endemic and non-endemic countries since May 2022. Throughout April and May 2022, Nigeria reported 31 MPXV cases, of which 11 were confirmed via testing. In May 2022, three internationally exported cases of MPXV, presumed to have originated in Nigeria, were reported, suggesting that a larger than reported outbreak might be occurring in the country. METHODS We used previously established methods to estimate the true size of the MPXV outbreak in Nigeria. We estimated the incidence rate of exported MPXV cases among all outbound international air travellers from Nigeria during the time period of April and May 2022, using forecasted air traveller volumes. We then applied this incidence rate to the entire population of Nigeria during April and May 2022 assuming that the rate of infection was the same in Nigeria for both travellers and the resident population. Information on the subset of population that were considered to be travellers was obtained from the United Nations World Tourism Organization (UNWTO). RESULTS We estimated that there were approximately 4000 (N = 4013; 95% CI: 828-11 728) active cases of MPXV in Nigeria in April and May 2022. This is approximately 360-fold greater than the confirmed number and approximately 130-fold greater than the reported number of cases in Nigeria. CONCLUSION Our findings suggest that a larger outbreak than is appreciated may be ongoing in Nigeria. The observed international spread of MPXV offers important insights into the scale of the epidemic at its origin, where clinical detection and disease surveillance may be limited. These findings highlight the need to expand and support clinical, laboratory, and public health capacity to enable earlier detection of epidemics of international significance.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Dimie Ogoina
- Department of Internal Medicine, Niger Delta University Teaching Hospital & Niger Delta University, Okolobiri, Bayelsa, Nigeria
| | | | | | | | | | | | - Isaac I Bogoch
- Department of Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada.,Divisions of General Internal Medicine and Infectious Diseases, University Health Network, Toronto, Canada
| | - Kamran Khan
- BlueDot, Toronto, Canada.,Department of Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada.,Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael's Hospital, Toronto, Canada
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5
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Au NH, Portillo MT, Marwah A, Thomas-Bachli A, Demarsh PA, Khan K, Bogoch II. Potential for monkeypox exportation from West and Central Africa through global travel networks. J Travel Med 2022; 29:taac072. [PMID: 35642580 DOI: 10.1093/jtm/taac072] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/20/2022] [Revised: 05/24/2022] [Accepted: 05/25/2022] [Indexed: 11/14/2022]
Affiliation(s)
| | | | | | | | | | - Kamran Khan
- BlueDot, Toronto, Canada
- Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael's Hospital, Toronto, Canada
- Department of Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada
| | - Isaac I Bogoch
- Department of Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada
- Divisions of General Internal Medicine and Infectious Diseases, University Health Network, Toronto, Canada
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6
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Au NH, Thomas-Bachli A, Forsyth J, Demarsh PA, Huber C, Bogoch II, Khan K. Identifying importation points of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant into the USA and potential locations of early domestic spread and impact. J Travel Med 2022; 29:6534726. [PMID: 35234894 PMCID: PMC9383474 DOI: 10.1093/jtm/taac021] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/22/2021] [Revised: 02/04/2022] [Accepted: 02/07/2022] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
Abstract
Highlight: We identified the US airports and metropolitan areas, particularly New York City, Miami and Los Angeles, that were the most likely locations of importation and domestic spread of Omicron from South Africa. Vaccination coverage suggested that several cities in GA, TX and UT were particularly vulnerable to public health impacts.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Andrea Thomas-Bachli
- BlueDot, Toronto, M5J 1A7, Ontario, Canada.,Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael's Hospital, Toronto, M5B 1T8, Canada
| | | | | | | | - Isaac I Bogoch
- Department of Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, M5G 2C4, Ontario, Canada.,Divisions of General Internal Medicine and Infectious Diseases, University Health Network, Toronto, M5G 2C4, Ontario, Canada
| | - Kamran Khan
- BlueDot, Toronto, M5J 1A7, Ontario, Canada.,Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael's Hospital, Toronto, M5B 1T8, Canada.,Department of Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, M5G 2C4, Ontario, Canada
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7
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Feldman J, Thomas-Bachli A, Forsyth J, Patel ZH, Khan K. Development of a global infectious disease activity database using natural language processing, machine learning, and human expertise. J Am Med Inform Assoc 2021; 26:1355-1359. [PMID: 31361300 DOI: 10.1093/jamia/ocz112] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/09/2019] [Revised: 05/28/2019] [Accepted: 06/04/2019] [Indexed: 01/25/2023] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVE We assessed whether machine learning can be utilized to allow efficient extraction of infectious disease activity information from online media reports. MATERIALS AND METHODS We curated a data set of labeled media reports (n = 8322) indicating which articles contain updates about disease activity. We trained a classifier on this data set. To validate our system, we used a held out test set and compared our articles to the World Health Organization Disease Outbreak News reports. RESULTS Our classifier achieved a recall and precision of 88.8% and 86.1%, respectively. The overall surveillance system detected 94% of the outbreaks identified by the WHO covered by online media (89%) and did so 43.4 (IQR: 9.5-61) days earlier on average. DISCUSSION We constructed a global real-time disease activity database surveilling 114 illnesses and syndromes. We must further assess our system for bias, representativeness, granularity, and accuracy. CONCLUSION Machine learning, natural language processing, and human expertise can be used to efficiently identify disease activity from digital media reports.
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Affiliation(s)
- Joshua Feldman
- Harvard University, School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA
| | - Andrea Thomas-Bachli
- Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michaels Hospital, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.,BlueDot, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Jack Forsyth
- Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michaels Hospital, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.,BlueDot, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Zaki Hasnain Patel
- Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michaels Hospital, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.,BlueDot, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Kamran Khan
- Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michaels Hospital, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.,BlueDot, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.,Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
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8
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Watts A, Au NH, Thomas-Bachli A, Forsyth J, Mayah O, Popescu S, Bogoch II. Potential for inter-state spread of Covid-19 from Arizona, USA: analysis of mobile device location and commercial flight data. J Travel Med 2020; 27:5895365. [PMID: 32822473 PMCID: PMC7499632 DOI: 10.1093/jtm/taaa136] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/23/2020] [Revised: 08/07/2020] [Accepted: 08/10/2020] [Indexed: 01/24/2023]
Abstract
A significant rise of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Arizona in June 2020 prompted the need to evaluate potential dispersion to other regions in the United States. We evaluate the potential for domestic dissemination of SARS-CoV-2 from Arizona using mobile device-location and scheduled flights data.
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Affiliation(s)
- Alexander Watts
- BlueDot, Toronto M5J 1A7, Canada.,Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael's Hospital, Toronto M5B 1T8, Canada
| | | | - Andrea Thomas-Bachli
- BlueDot, Toronto M5J 1A7, Canada.,Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael's Hospital, Toronto M5B 1T8, Canada
| | | | | | - Saskia Popescu
- Mel & Enid Zuckerman College of Public Health, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85724, USA
| | - Isaac I Bogoch
- Department of Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto M5G 2C4, Canada.,Divisions of General Internal Medicine and Infectious Diseases, University Health Network, Toronto M5G 2C4, Canada
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9
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Bogoch II, Watts A, Thomas-Bachli A, Huber C, Kraemer MUG, Khan K. Pneumonia of unknown aetiology in Wuhan, China: potential for international spread via commercial air travel. J Travel Med 2020. [PMID: 31943059 DOI: 10.1093/jtm/taaa1008] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 04/21/2023]
Abstract
There is currently an outbreak of pneumonia of unknown aetiology in Wuhan, China. Although there are still several unanswered questions about this infection, we evaluate the potential for international dissemination of this disease via commercial air travel should the outbreak continue.
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Affiliation(s)
- Isaac I Bogoch
- Department of Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada
- Divisions of General Internal Medicine and Infectious Diseases, University Health Network, Toronto, Canada
| | - Alexander Watts
- Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael's Hospital, Toronto, Canada
- BlueDot, Toronto, Canada
| | - Andrea Thomas-Bachli
- Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael's Hospital, Toronto, Canada
- BlueDot, Toronto, Canada
| | - Carmen Huber
- Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael's Hospital, Toronto, Canada
- BlueDot, Toronto, Canada
| | - Moritz U G Kraemer
- Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
- Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Kamran Khan
- Department of Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada
- Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael's Hospital, Toronto, Canada
- BlueDot, Toronto, Canada
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10
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Bogoch II, Watts A, Thomas-Bachli A, Huber C, Kraemer MUG, Khan K. Pneumonia of unknown aetiology in Wuhan, China: potential for international spread via commercial air travel. J Travel Med 2020; 27:5704418. [PMID: 31943059 PMCID: PMC7107534 DOI: 10.1093/jtm/taaa008] [Citation(s) in RCA: 403] [Impact Index Per Article: 100.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/08/2020] [Revised: 01/09/2020] [Accepted: 01/10/2020] [Indexed: 12/04/2022]
Abstract
There is currently an outbreak of pneumonia of unknown aetiology in Wuhan, China. Although there are still several unanswered questions about this infection, we evaluate the potential for international dissemination of this disease via commercial air travel should the outbreak continue.
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Affiliation(s)
- Isaac I Bogoch
- Department of Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada.,Divisions of General Internal Medicine and Infectious Diseases, University Health Network, Toronto, Canada
| | - Alexander Watts
- Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael's Hospital, Toronto, Canada.,BlueDot, Toronto, Canada
| | - Andrea Thomas-Bachli
- Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael's Hospital, Toronto, Canada.,BlueDot, Toronto, Canada
| | - Carmen Huber
- Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael's Hospital, Toronto, Canada.,BlueDot, Toronto, Canada
| | - Moritz U G Kraemer
- Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.,Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Kamran Khan
- Department of Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada.,Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael's Hospital, Toronto, Canada.,BlueDot, Toronto, Canada
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11
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Bogoch II, Watts A, Thomas-Bachli A, Huber C, Kraemer MUG, Khan K. Potential for global spread of a novel coronavirus from China. J Travel Med 2020; 27:5716260. [PMID: 31985790 PMCID: PMC7074660 DOI: 10.1093/jtm/taaa011] [Citation(s) in RCA: 207] [Impact Index Per Article: 51.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/22/2020] [Revised: 01/23/2020] [Accepted: 01/27/2020] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Abstract
An epidemic of a novel coronavirus emerged from Wuhan, China, in late December 2019 and has since spread to several large Chinese cities. Should a scenario arise where this coronavirus spreads more broadly across China, we evaluate how patterns of international disease transmission could change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Isaac I Bogoch
- Department of Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.,Divisions of General Internal Medicine and Infectious Diseases, University Health Network, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Alexander Watts
- Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael's Hospital, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.,BlueDot, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Andrea Thomas-Bachli
- Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael's Hospital, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.,BlueDot, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Carmen Huber
- Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael's Hospital, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.,BlueDot, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Moritz U G Kraemer
- Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.,Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Kamran Khan
- Department of Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.,Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael's Hospital, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.,BlueDot, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
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Tuite AR, Thomas-Bachli A, Acosta H, Bhatia D, Huber C, Petrasek K, Watts A, Yong JHE, Bogoch II, Khan K. Infectious disease implications of large-scale migration of Venezuelan nationals. J Travel Med 2018; 25:5091517. [PMID: 30192972 PMCID: PMC6142906 DOI: 10.1093/jtm/tay077] [Citation(s) in RCA: 47] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/30/2018] [Revised: 08/21/2018] [Accepted: 09/04/2018] [Indexed: 01/20/2023]
Abstract
Background The ongoing economic and political crisis in Venezuela has resulted in a collapse of the healthcare system and the re-emergence of previously controlled or eliminated infectious diseases. There has also been an exodus of Venezuelan international migrants in response to the crisis. We sought to describe the infectious disease risks faced by Venezuelan nationals and assess the international mobility patterns of the migrant population. Methods We synthesized data on recent infectious disease events in Venezuela and among international migrants from Venezuela, as well as on current country of residence among the migrant population. We used passenger-level itinerary data from the International Air Transport Association to evaluate trends in outbound air travel from Venezuela over time. We used two parameter-free mobility models, the radiation and impedance models, to estimate the expected population flows from Venezuelan cities to other major Latin American and Caribbean cities. Results Outbreaks of measles, diphtheria and malaria have been reported across Venezuela and other diseases, such as HIV and tuberculosis, are resurgent. Changes in migration in response to the crisis are apparent, with an increase in Venezuelan nationals living abroad, despite an overall decline in the number of outbound air passengers. The two models predicted different mobility patterns, but both highlighted the importance of Colombian cities as destinations for migrants and also showed that some migrants are expected to travel large distances. Despite the large distances that migrants may travel internationally, outbreaks associated with Venezuelan migrants have occurred primarily in countries proximate to Venezuela. Conclusions Understanding where international migrants are relocating is critical, given the association between human mobility and the spread of infectious diseases. In data-limited situations, simple models can be useful for providing insights into population mobility and may help identify areas likely to receive a large number of migrants.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ashleigh R Tuite
- Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael’s Hospital, Toronto, Canada
- BlueDot, Toronto, Canada
- Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada
| | - Andrea Thomas-Bachli
- Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael’s Hospital, Toronto, Canada
- BlueDot, Toronto, Canada
| | - Hernan Acosta
- Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael’s Hospital, Toronto, Canada
- BlueDot, Toronto, Canada
| | - Deepit Bhatia
- Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael’s Hospital, Toronto, Canada
- BlueDot, Toronto, Canada
| | - Carmen Huber
- Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael’s Hospital, Toronto, Canada
- BlueDot, Toronto, Canada
| | - Kieran Petrasek
- Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael’s Hospital, Toronto, Canada
- BlueDot, Toronto, Canada
| | - Alexander Watts
- Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael’s Hospital, Toronto, Canada
- BlueDot, Toronto, Canada
| | - Jean H E Yong
- Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael’s Hospital, Toronto, Canada
- BlueDot, Toronto, Canada
| | - Isaac I Bogoch
- Department of Medicine, Division of Infectious Diseases, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada
- Divisions of General Internal Medicine and Infectious Diseases, University Health Network, Toronto, Canada
| | - Kamran Khan
- Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St. Michael’s Hospital, Toronto, Canada
- BlueDot, Toronto, Canada
- Department of Medicine, Division of Infectious Diseases, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada
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