Risk events during intrahospital transport of patients from the emergency department: a prospective observational study

BACKGROUND

We aimed to determine the incidence, nature of and predisposing factors for risk events (REs) that occur during the intrahospital transport of patients from the ED.

METHODS

We undertook a prospective, observational study of intrahospital patient transports from a single ED between 30 January and 20 March 2020. An investigator attended each transport and recorded any RE on a specifically designed data collection document. An RE was any mishap, even if not foreseen, that had the potential to cause the patient harm. A patient equipment number was assigned based on the number of pieces of equipment required during the transport. Poisson regression generated incidence rate ratios (IRRs) and determined risk factors for REs.

RESULTS

Of 738 transports, 289 (39.1%, 95% CI 35.6% to 42.8%) had at least one RE. The total of 521 REs comprised 125 patient-related, 279 device-related and 117 line/catheter-related REs. The most common included trolley collisions (n=142), intravenous fluid line catching/tangling (n=93), agitation/aggression events (n=31) and cardiac monitoring issues (n=31). Thirty-four (6.5%) REs resulted in an undesirable patient outcome, most commonly distress and pain. Predisposing factors for REs included an equipment number ≥3 (IRR 5.68, 95% CI 3.95 to 8.17), transport to a general ward (IRR 2.68, 95% CI 2.12 to 3.39), hypertension (IRR 1.93, 95% CI 1.07 to 3.50), an abnormal temperature and a GCS<14.

CONCLUSIONS

REs are common in transport of patients from the ED and can result in undesirable patient outcomes. Adequate pre-transfer preparation, especially securing equipment and lines, would result in a reduced risk.

The Effect of the Consent Process on Patient Satisfaction With Pain Management: A Randomized Controlled Trial

STUDY OBJECTIVE

We aim to determine whether the timing and context of informed consent affects the subjective outcome of patient satisfaction with pain management.

METHODS

We conducted a randomized controlled trial in a single emergency department (ED). Patients aged 18 years or older with a triage pain score of greater than or equal to 4 provided consent to participate in a pain management study. They were randomized to consent in the ED or at follow-up. All patients were followed up at 48 hours post-ED discharge. Patients who consented at follow-up were unaware of the study until cold called. The primary outcome was patient satisfaction with pain management. Secondary analyses examined effects on follow-up and participation rates. Variables associated with patients' being very satisfied were determined with multivariate logistic regression.

RESULTS

Outcome data were obtained on 655 of 825 patients enrolled (79.4%). Patients who provided consent at follow-up were less likely to be very satisfied compared with those who consented in the ED (difference in proportions 11.5%; 95% confidence interval 3.5 to 19.4). Follow-up and participation rates did not differ between the groups. Patients who received pain advice and adequate analgesia (both as defined in this study) were more likely to be very satisfied (odds ratio 5.18, 95% confidence interval 2.82 to 9.52; and odds ratio 1.54, 95% confidence interval 1.07 to 2.22, respectively).

CONCLUSION

The timing and context of informed consent significantly affect the subjective outcome of patient satisfaction, and this should be considered during study design. Clinicians should strive to provide pain advice and adequate analgesia to maximize their patients' satisfaction.

Risk variables associated with abnormal calcium, magnesium and phosphate levels among emergency department patients

OBJECTIVE

The utility of calcium, magnesium and phosphate measurement in the ED is limited. We aimed to determine clinical risk variables for abnormal levels of these electrolytes in order to inform the development of an ordering guideline.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective, observational study of patients who presented to a tertiary referral ED between January and June 2017. Adult patients who had serum calcium, magnesium or phosphate tests completed during their ED stay were included. Presenting symptoms and signs, comorbidities, medication use and laboratory values were extracted from the medical record. Patients with missing data items were excluded. Logistic regression models determined clinical risk variables associated with low and high levels of each electrolyte.

RESULTS

A total of 33 120 adults presented during the study period. Of the 1679 calcium, 1576 magnesium and 1511 phosphate tests, 228 (13.6%), 158 (10.0%) and 387 (25.6%) were abnormal, respectively. Significant risk variables (P < 0.05) for abnormal levels were: hypocalcaemia - vomiting, perioral numbness, hand/foot spasm, calcium and phosphate supplements and chemotherapy (odds ratio [OR] range 5.9-17.3); hypercalcaemia - female sex, vomiting, polyuria, confusion, hyperparathyroidism, cancer and type 1 diabetes (OR range 2.3-9.7); hypomagnesemia - female sex, proton pump inhibitor use, tacrolimus use, alcohol abuse and type 2 diabetes (OR range 2.2-13.1); hypermagnesemia - lethargy, thiazide use and chronic kidney disease (OR range 4.3-4.5); hypophosphatemia - nausea, seizure and glucocorticoid use (OR range 1.7-2.1); and hyperphosphataemia - polyuria, diuretics and chronic kidney disease (OR range 1.9-5.0).

CONCLUSION

A range of demographic, comorbid, medication and clinical variables are associated with abnormal calcium, magnesium and phosphate levels. These findings will inform the development of clinical guidelines to rationalise calcium, magnesium and phosphate testing. Justification may be required for testing patients with no risk variables.

Variables associated with completeness of medical record documentation in the emergency department

OBJECTIVE

The completeness of ED medical record documentation is often suboptimal. We aimed to determine the variables associated with documentation completeness in a large, tertiary referral ED.

METHODS

We audited 1200 randomly selected medical records of patients who presented with either abdominal pain, cardiac chest pain, shortness of breath or headache between May-July 2013 and May-July 2016. Data were collected on patient and treating doctor variables. Documentation completeness was assessed using a 0-10 point scoring tool designed for the study. A maximum score was achieved if each of 10 pre-determined important items, specific to the presenting complaint, were documented (five medical history items, five physical examination items). Data were analysed using multivariate regression.

RESULTS

The presenting year, day and time, patient age and gender, preferred language, interpreter requirement, discharge destination and doctor gender were not associated with documentation completeness (P > 0.05). Patients with triage category 3 or pain score of 6-7 had higher documentation scores (P < 0.05). Compared to interns, registrars (effect size -0.72, 95% CI -1.02 to -0.42, P < 0.01) and consultants (-1.62, 95% CI -1.95 to -1.29, P < 0.01) scored significantly less. The headache patient subgroup scored significantly less than the other patient subgroups (-0.35, 95% CI -0.63 to -0.08, P = 0.01). For all presenting complaint subgroups, examination findings were less well documented than history items (P < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

Documentation completeness is less among senior doctors, headache patients and for examination findings. Research should determine if the supervision responsibilities of senior doctors affects documentation and if medico-legal and patient care implications exist.

The association between abnormal vital sign groups and undesirable patient outcomes

Introduction:

To determine the association between both abnormal individual vital signs and abnormal vital sign groups in the emergency department, and undesirable patient outcomes: hospital admission, medical emergency team calls and death.

Method:

We undertook a prospective cohort study in a tertiary referral emergency department (February–May 2015). Vital signs were collected prospectively in the emergency department and undesirable outcomes from the medical records. The primary outcomes were undesirable outcomes for individual vital signs (multivariate logistic regression) and vital sign groups (univariate analyses).

Results:

Data from 1438 patients were analysed. Admission was associated with tachycardia, tachypnoea, fever, ≥1 abnormal vital sign on admission to the emergency department, ≥1 abnormal vital sign at any time in the emergency department, a persistently abnormal vital sign, and vital signs consistent with both sepsis (tachycardia/hypotension/abnormal temperature) and pneumonia (tachypnoea/fever) (p < 0.05). Medical emergency team calls were associated with tachycardia, tachypnoea, ≥1 abnormal vital sign on admission (odds ratio: 2.3, 95% confidence interval: 1.4–3.8), ≥2 abnormal vital signs at any time (odds ratio: 2.4, 95% confidence interval: 1.2–4.7), and a persistently abnormal vital sign (odds ratio: 2.7, 95% confidence interval: 1.6–4.6). Death was associated with Glasgow Coma Score ≤13 (odds ratio: 6.3, 95% confidence interval: 2.5–16.0), ≥1 abnormal vital sign on admission (odds ratio: 2.6, 95% confidence interval: 1.2–5.6), ≥2 abnormal vital signs at any time (odds ratio: 6.4, 95% confidence interval: 1.4–29.5), a persistently abnormal vital sign (odds ratio: 4.3, 95% confidence interval: 2.0–9.0), and vital signs consistent with pneumonia (odds ratio: 5.3, 95% confidence interval: 1.9–14.8).

Conclusion:

Abnormal vital sign groups are generally superior to individual vital signs in predicting undesirable outcomes. They could inform best practice management, emergency department disposition, and communication with the patient and family.

Development of Acute Decompensated Heart Failure Among Hospital Inpatients: Incidence, Causes and Outcomes

BACKGROUND

We aimed to investigate the incidence, precipitants, and outcomes of acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF) that develops during the inpatient stay.

METHODS

We undertook a case-control study in the medical, oncology, surgical, and orthopaedic wards of a tertiary referral hospital (February-May, 2016). Patients aged ≥18 years who developed ADHF during their inpatient stay were enrolled as cases. One control patient was matched to each case by age, gender, presenting complaint/surgery performed and co-morbidities. Multivariate regression was employed to determine variables associated with ADHF.

RESULTS

The incidence of ADHF was 1.0% of patients. Eighty cases were well-matched to 80 controls (p>0.05). ADHF precipitants comprised infection (30%), inappropriate intravenous (IV) fluid and medication management (23.8% and 8.8%, respectively), tachyarrhythmia (12.5%), ischaemic heart disease (8.8%), renal failure (1.3%), and other/unclear causes (15%). Three variables were associated with ADHF: not having English as the preferred language (OR 3.5, 95%CI 1.2-9.8), a history of ischaemic heart disease (OR 3.3, 95%CI 1.2-9.1), and the administration of >2000ml of IV fluid on the day before the ADHF (OR 8.3, 95%CI 1.5-48.0). The day before the ADHF, cases were administered significantly more IV fluids than controls (median 2,757.5 versus 975ml, p=0.001). Medication errors mostly related to failure to restart regular diuretics. Cases had significantly greater length of stay (median 15 versus 6 days, p<0.001) and mortality (12.5% versus 1.3%, p=0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

New onset ADHF is common and a substantial proportion of cases are iatrogenic. Cases experience significantly increased length of hospital stay, morbidity, and mortality.

Case-control study to investigate variables associated with incidents and adverse events in the emergency department

OBJECTIVE

To detect and analyse incidents (Is) and adverse events (AEs) in the ED. We hypothesised that I/AE are associated with patient load.

METHODS

We undertook a case-control study in a tertiary level hospital ED (from 1 April 2012 to 31 March 2013). Three percent of patients were randomly selected and screened for I/AEs. I/AEs were adjudicated by consensus of four FACEMs. Controls were matched to cases 2:1. Logistic regression was used to analyse the data.

RESULTS

We sampled 2167 patients. After exclusions, 217 I/AEs were detected and analysed. The I and AE rates were 6.0 and 4.1%, respectively. The serious AE rate was 0.8% and 30 day mortality was 0.1%. Diagnostic error occurred in 3.7% of all patients and adverse drug reactions in 2.5%. Seventy-seven percent of the I/AEs were judged preventable. ED occupancy of <35 patients was the reference group. Compared with this group, if 36-40 or 41-45 patients were in the ED, I/AEs were more likely to occur (odds ratio [OR] 2.37 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.40-4.01, P < 0.0] and 1.8 [95% CI 1.03-3.15, P = 0.04], respectively) but not when there were >46 patients (OR 1.7, 95% CI 1.0-3.1). Higher hospital occupancy (90-99%) was a protective factor for sustaining an I/AE (OR 0.57, 95% CI 0.35-0.92, P = 0.02).

CONCLUSION

I/AEs are common in the ED and a large proportion is preventable. Strategies for prevention are required. The relationship with patient load needs further clarification, since our data suggests increased I/AE rates with higher occupancy but not highest occupancy.

Placental Insufficiency in Fetuses That Slow in Growth but Are Born Appropriate for Gestational Age: A Prospective Longitudinal Study

OBJECTIVES

To determine whether fetuses that slow in growth but are then born appropriate for gestational age (AGA, birthweight >10th centile) demonstrate ultrasound and clinical evidence of placental insufficiency.

METHODS

Prospective longitudinal study of 48 pregnancies reaching term and a birthweight >10th centile. We estimated fetal weight by ultrasound at 28 and 36 weeks, and recorded birthweight to determine the relative change in customised weight across two timepoints: 28-36 weeks and 28 weeks-birth. The relative change in weight centiles were correlated with fetoplacental Doppler findings performed at 36 weeks. We also examined whether a decline in growth trajectory in fetuses born AGA was associated with operative deliveries performed for suspected intrapartum compromise.

RESULTS

The middle cerebral artery pulsatility index (MCA-PI) showed a linear association with fetal growth trajectory. Lower MCA-PI readings (reflecting greater diversion of blood supply to the brain) were significantly associated with a decline in fetal growth, both between 28-36 weeks (p = 0.02), and 28 weeks-birth (p = 0.0002). The MCA-PI at 36 weeks was significantly higher among those with a relative weight centile fall <20%, compared to those with a moderate centile fall of 20-30% (mean MCA-PI 1.94 vs 1.61; p<0.05), or severe centile fall of >30% (mean MCA-PI 1.94 vs 1.56; p<0.01). Of 43 who labored, operative delivery for suspected intrapartum fetal compromise was required in 12 cases; 9/18 (50%) cases where growth slowed, and 3/25 (12%) where growth trajectory was maintained (p = 0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

Slowing in growth across the third trimester among fetuses subsequently born AGA was associated with ultrasound and clinical features of placental insufficiency. Such fetuses may represent an under-recognised cohort at increased risk of stillbirth.

Post-partum plasma C-peptide and ghrelin concentrations are predictive of type 2 diabetes in women with previous gestational diabetes mellitus

BACKGROUND

Women with previous gestational diabetes mellitus (pGDM) are at increased risk of developing type 2 diabetes later in life. The aim of this study was to determine if circulating levels of metabolic hormones 12 weeks following a GDM pregnancy are associated with an increased risk of type 2 diabetes 8-10 years later.

METHODS

Fasting plasma concentrations of glucose, insulin, C-peptide, ghrelin, GIP, GLP-1, glucagon, leptin, PAI-1, resistin and visfatin were measured in 98 normal glucose tolerant women, 12 weeks following an index GDM pregnancy. Women were assessed every 2 years for up to 10 years for development of overt type 2 diabetes.

RESULTS

After a median follow-up period of 8.7 years, 22.5% of women with a pGDM pregnancy developed type 2 diabetes. Significant risk factors for the development of type 2 diabetes were fasting plasma glucose levels >5 mmol/L during pregnancy and at 12 weeks post-pregnancy. In addition, higher C-peptide levels and lower ghrelin levels at 12 weeks post-pregnancy were also significant risk factors for the development of type 2 diabetes.

CONCLUSIONS

Fasting plasma glucose during pregnancy and post-partum, and post-partum C-peptide and ghrelin levels were significant risk factors for the development of type 2 diabetes in women with pGDM. This is the first report that identifies C-peptide and ghrelin as potential biomarkers for the prediction of type 2 diabetes in women with a history of GDM.

Natural history of concussion in sport: markers of severity and implications for management

BACKGROUND

Evidence-based clinical data are required for safe return to play after concussion in sport.

PURPOSE

The objective of this study was to describe the natural history of concussion in sport and identify clinical features associated with more severe concussive injury, using return-to-sport decisions as a surrogate measure of injury severity.

STUDY DESIGN

Cohort study (prognosis); Level of evidence, 3.

METHODS

Male elite senior, elite junior, and community-based Australian Rules football players had preseason baseline cognitive testing (Digit Symbol Substitution Test, Trail-Making Test-Part B, and CogSport computerized test battery). Players were recruited into the study after a concussive injury sustained while playing football. Concussed players were tested serially until all clinical features of their injury had resolved.

RESULTS

Of 1015 players, 88 concussions were observed in 78 players. Concussion-associated symptoms lasted an average of 48.6 hours (95% confidence interval, 39.5-57.7 hours) with delayed return to sport correlated with > or = 4 symptoms, headache lasting > or = 60 hours, or self-reported "fatigue/fogginess." Cognitive deficits using the Digit Symbol Substitution Test and Trail-Making Test-part B recovered concomitantly with symptoms, but computerized test results recovered 2 to 3 days later and remained impaired in 35% of concussed players after symptom resolution.

CONCLUSION

Delayed return to sport was associated with initially greater symptom load, prolonged headache, or subjective concentration deficits. Cognitive testing recovery varied, taking 2 to 3 days longer for computerized tests, suggesting greater sensitivity to impairment. Therefore, symptom assessment alone may be predictive of but may underestimate time to complete recovery, which may be better estimated with computerized cognitive testing.

A prospective study of postconcussive outcomes after return to play in Australian football

BACKGROUND

Decisions regarding safe return to play after concussion in sport remain difficult.

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether a concussed player returned to play using an individual clinical management strategy is at risk of impaired performance or increased risk of injury or concussion.

STUDY DESIGN

Cohort study; Level of evidence, 3.

METHODS

All elite Australian football players were followed for 4 seasons. Players were recruited into the study after sustaining a concussive injury. Outcome measures included performance statistics (disposals per hour match-time), injury rates, and recurrence of concussion on return to play. A subset of players had brief screening cognitive tests performed at baseline and after their concussion. Noninjured players matched for team, position, age, and size were chosen as controls.

RESULTS

A total of 199 concussive injuries were observed in 158 players. Sixty-one concussive injuries were excluded from analysis because of incomplete data (45 players) or presence of concurrent injury (16 players). Of the 138 concussive injuries assessed, 127 players returned to play without missing a game (92%). The remainder of concussed players returned to play after missing a single game (8%). Overall, there was no significant decline in disposal rates in concussed players on return to competition. Furthermore, there were no significant differences in injury rates between concussed and team, position, and game-matched controls. In the subset of players who had completed screening cognitive tests, all had returned to their individual baseline performance before being returned to play.

CONCLUSION

Return to play decisions based on individual clinical assessment of recovery allows safe and appropriate return to sport following a concussive injury.

Cesarean Delivery or Vaginal Birth

OBJECTIVE

To estimate what level of additional fetal risk women and their caregivers in late pregnancy considered acceptable to avoid a cesarean and achieve a vaginal birth.

METHODS

Six hundred women in late pregnancy and 294 obstetric consultants, registrars, midwives, and medical students were recruited to the study. With the assistance of a visual probability aid representing 10,000 births, they were asked to consider what level of fetal risk of death or serious disability they would consider acceptable to avoid cesarean and achieve vaginal birth.

RESULTS

The median level of fetal risk deemed acceptable to achieve a vaginal birth for pregnant women was 10 per 10,000 births (95% confidence interval [CI] 10-13 per 10,000), although the range of responses was wide (1-5,000 per 10,000). Among staff, the median level of acceptable fetal risk was 13 per 10,000 births (95% CI 10-20 per 10,000). Women participating in lower intervention models of care, such as the birth center or team midwifery, were more tolerant of fetal risk (odds ratios [ORs] 2.1, 95% CI 1.6-2.9 and 1.5, 95% CI 1.0-2.3, for accepting a fetal risk of 20 per 10,000 or greater), whereas women with a complicated pregnancy were less tolerant of fetal risk (OR 0.7, 95% CI 0.5-0.9).

CONCLUSION

Pregnant women and their caregivers have a low tolerance for fetal risk associated with vaginal birth. This study demonstrates the difficulty of minimizing obstetric intervention rates in the face of high expectations for fetal outcome. Obstetric and demographic factors were found to significantly impact the "acceptable fetal risk" threshold, which highlights the importance of individualized counseling regarding mode of birth.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

III.

Open label study of intranasal sumatriptan (Imigran) for footballer's headache

OBJECTIVE

To study the efficacy and practicality of treating headache in professional footballers with intranasal sumatriptan.

METHODS

An open label drug trial was performed in elite Australian footballers using intranasal sumatriptan (20 mg) treatment for acute headache. The main outcome measures were treatment response at 30 minutes, two hours, and 24 hours using two criteria: (a) initial severity moderate or severe to nil or mild; (b) stricter criteria of initial severity moderate to severe to subsequent nil headache.

RESULTS

Thirty eight attacks were analysed. The two hour response showed that 86% of attacks of migraine with aura and all of the attacks of migraine without aura responded to treatment with sumatriptan nasal spray. Complete relief of headache at two hours was reported by 71% of players with migraine with aura and 90% of those without aura. Recurrence rates were generally low, with 0% of migraine headaches and 25% non-migraine attacks recurring at 24 hours. Minor side effects were reported in 28 attacks.

CONCLUSIONS

This pilot open label trial suggests that sumatriptan nasal spray may be a valuable, effective, and convenient treatment of headache in professional sport. There are potential risks of this drug that need to be considered.

Novel male hormonal contraceptive combinations: the hormonal and spermatogenic effects of testosterone and levonorgestrel combined with a 5alpha-reductase inhibitor or gonadotropin-releasing hormone antagonist

We postulated that the addition of a combined types I and II, 5alpha-reductase inhibitor (dutasteride) or long-acting GnRH antagonist (acyline) to combination testosterone plus levonorgestrel treatment may be advantageous in the suppression of spermatogenesis for male contraception. This study aimed to examine effects of novel combination contraceptive regimens on serum gonadotropins and androgens and sperm concentration.This study was divided into three phases: screening (2 wk), treatment (8 wk), and recovery (4 wk). Twenty-two men (n = 5-6/group) received 8 wk of treatment with testosterone enanthate (TE, 100 mg im weekly) combined with one of the following: 1) levonorgestrel (LNG) 125 mug orally daily; 2) LNG 125 microg plus dutasteride 0.5 mg orally daily; 3) acyline 300 microg/kg sc every 2 wk (as a comparator for any additional progestin effects); or 4) LNG 125 microg orally daily plus acyline 300 microg/kg sc every 2 wk. Serum gonadotropin levels were similarly suppressed by all treatments, falling to a nadir between 1.2 and 3.4% and 0.5 and 0.8% baseline for FSH and LH, respectively (P < 0.05). Serum dihydrotestosterone levels were significantly (P < 0.05) decreased in the dutasteride group throughout the treatment period to a nadir of 31% baseline (wk 7). No significant differences in sperm concentrations among treatment groups were seen. Severe oligospermia (0.1-3 million/ml) or azoospermia was seen in none of five and four of five in TE + LNG; two of six and four of six in TE + LNG + dutasteride; two of six and four of six in TE + acyline; and one of five and three of five in TE + LNG + acyline groups, respectively. There was one nonresponder in each of the TE + LNG and TE + LNG + acyline groups.We conclude that the addition of a combined types I and II, 5alpha-reductase inhibitor or long-acting GnRH antagonist to a testosterone plus LNG regimen provides no additional suppression of gonadotropins or sperm concentration over an 8-wk treatment period. However, further evaluation of the effects of these regimens on the testis (including testicular steroid levels and germ cell maturation) and the treatment of larger numbers of men (and for longer periods) may provide data to support their place in contraceptive development.

Relationship between serum gonadotropins and spermatogenic suppression in men undergoing steroidal contraceptive treatment

This study aimed to establish whether the degree of suppression of serum FSH and LH was related to sperm concentration in three testosterone (T) plus progestin contraceptive regimens. We measured serum FSH and LH using a modified, highly sensitive immunofluorometric assay in samples obtained from three published studies using T enanthate (TE; 100 and 200 mg weekly) plus daily oral doses of cyproterone acetate (CPA; 5-100 mg), levonogestrel (LNG; 150-500 micro g), or desogestrel (DSG; 150-300 micro g). Overall, men with sperm concentrations below 0.1 million/ml had significantly lower gonadotropin levels (serum FSH, approximately 0.12 IU/liter; serum LH, approximately 0.05 IU/liter) than oligospermic men (sperm concentrations, 0.1-5 million/ml; serum FSH, 0.23-0.5 IU/liter; serum LH, 0.05-0.56 IU/liter), but the relationship was weak, indicating the possible existence of other determinants. Multivariate logistic regression was used to identify the influence of candidate predictors of spermatogenic effects of the T plus progestin regimens. In the LNG and DSG studies, the marked suppression of serum LH to less than 5% of baseline values (<0.15 IU/liter) was a consistent and highly significant predictor of sperm concentration (reduced to 2-7% that seen at higher LH levels) and the likelihood of its suppression below 1 million/ml (a proposed threshold for contraceptive efficacy). Serum FSH was not a significant independent predictor. The use of DSG and CPA (but not LNG) was a significant independent predictor of sperm suppression, and regimens that contained 200 mg TE weekly caused less spermatogenic suppression than 100 mg TE weekly. These findings suggest that T-progestin contraceptive regimens suppress sperm concentration by gonadotropin-dependent and -independent mechanisms. The suppression of serum LH is a major predictor of the suppression of sperm concentration suppression in the LNG and DSG treatment studies. On the other hand, the greater spermatogenic suppression in regimens containing DSG or CPA suggests that these progestins have additional actions to suppress spermatogenesis via a gonadotropin-independent mechanism(s)

Ultrasound prediction of risk of spontaneous miscarriage in live embryos from assisted conceptions

OBJECTIVE

An accurate method to predict subsequent miscarriage in live embryos has not yet been established. This pilot study aimed to determine the most discriminatory ultrasound-based model for predicting spontaneous miscarriage after embryonic life was first detected in assisted conceptions. A method for estimating individual risk of miscarriage was developed.

METHODS

This was a prospective cross-sectional survey of 322 live singleton embryos in women from an assisted reproductive technology program. Mean sac diameter (MSD), crown-rump length (CRL), embryonic heart rate (EHR), maternal age and gestational age at the first transvaginal scan detecting embryonic life (between 42 and 62 days) were observed. These variables were included in a multivariate model for predicting spontaneous miscarriage occurring prior to 20 weeks. MSD, CRL and MSD minus CRL were assessed in univariate logistic regression analyses. The global diagnostic accuracy of each model was compared directly using receiver-operating characteristics (ROC) curves.

RESULTS

The multivariate model demonstrated the best ROC curve for predicting miscarriage (ROC area 0.87; 95% CI, 0.80-0.95). The separate univariate analyses had less diagnostic accuracy. In particular, MSD - CRL had a significantly smaller ROC area (0.65) than did the multivariate model (P < 0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

The most discriminatory test for predicting spontaneous miscarriage in live embryos was a multivariate model, which allows estimation of individual risk levels.

Quality of Recovery from Anesthesia in Neurosurgical Patients

Background

Factors influencing quality of recovery in cranial and spinal neurosurgical patients are not known, possibly because of lack of a suitable instrument. Therefore, the authors measured quality of recovery using the QoR-40 score (a 40-item questionnaire on quality of recovery from anesthesia).

Methods

With informed consent, 200 patients undergoing elective neurosurgery were recruited. The QoR-40 score, visual analog scores for pain and quality of recovery, and data on complications were collected over 90 days. The psychometrics of the QoR-40 were tested and regression models were developed to determine predictors of quality of recovery and postoperative pain.

Results

The QoR-40 score demonstrated significant responsiveness, validity, and reliability. In cranial surgery patients, QoR-40 scores were lower on days 1 and 2 than either preoperatively or on days 3, 30, and 90. In spinal surgery patients, QoR-40 scores were lower preoperatively and on days 1 and 2 than on days 3, 30, and 90. Longer duration of surgery, more complications, and higher visual analog scores for pain were predictors of poor quality of recovery on day 3. Cranial surgery patients had moderately severe pain on days 1 and 2, whereas spinal surgery patients reported moderate pain for the whole study period. Neurologic deficits were negatively correlated with QoR-40 scores in cranial and spinal surgery patients.

Conclusions

The QoR-40 score is a useful instrument with which to assess quality of recovery in cranial and spinal surgery patients. Postoperative pain and neurologic deficits correlate with poor quality of recovery in these patients.

Sugar-starch combinations in food and the relationship to dental caries in low-risk adolescents

The aim of this 2-year prospective cohort study was to determine whether food-level sugar-starch combinations are predictors of dental caries in a low-risk adolescent population. A total of 645 subjects, aged 12-13 yr at baseline, were recruited from 25 secondary colleges in the north-west region of metropolitan Melbourne, Australia. Examinations to record dental caries status were conducted annually. Dental caries was diagnosed according to the criteria of the World Health Organization. Dietary information was collected by four, continuous 4-d records. Demographic data was collected by parental self-administered questionnaire. A total of 504 subjects provided complete information for analysis. Approximately 37% of subjects experienced an increment in caries. In the multivariate model, only the low sugar-high starch food group was a significant predictor of caries increment on all surfaces and pit and fissure surfaces. For both these surfaces, significant interactions with starch at low sugar and across those clusters with a maximum proportion of sugar and/or starch (that is, high sugar-low starch, medium sugar-medium starch and high sugar-low starch) were found. Sugar-starch interactions may be predictive of caries risk in a low-risk adolescent population. Changing patterns of food consumption and the widespread exposure to various fluoride vehicles are possibly altering the diet-dental caries dynamic that once existed.

The effect of hospitalisation on ambulatory blood pressure in pregnancy

METHODS

Twenty-four-hour ambulatory blood pressure monitoring was performed on 40 women (20 hypertensive, 20 normotensive) on a hospitalised and non-hospitalised day. Mean blood pressure differences were calculated for the awake, sleeping and 24-hour periods on both days.

RESULTS

Mean heart rate was higher at home (1.79, p = 0.04) than in hospital, but there were no significant differences in mean systolic (1.30 mmHg, p = 0.06), diastolic (0.78 mmHg, p = 0.21) or mean arterial blood pressure (0.81 mmHg, p = 0.19) between the hospitalised and non hospitalised day for the group overall. Nevertheless, the range of individual responses was wide (-8.5 mmHg to 15.4 mmHg mean arterial blood pressure). Hypertensive women receiving antihypertensive therapy had significantly greater differences in mean arterial blood pressure between the hospital and non-hospital day when compared to the rest of the group (5.8 mmHg, compared to 3.3 mm Hg, p = 0.02).

CONCLUSIONS

Although hospitalisation does not significantly lower blood pressure in pregnant women as a group, women receiving antihypertensive therapy demonstrate significant differences in blood pressure between hospital and home. Based on conventional blood pressure measurements alone, these women may be at risk of either under treatment, or over treatment, of blood pressure.

Mild core hypothermia and anesthetic requirement for loss of responsiveness during propofol anesthesia for craniotomy

Mild hypothermia may be induced during neurosurgery for brain protection. However, its effect on propofol requirement has not been defined. Accordingly, we tested the hypothesis that 3 degrees C of core hypothermia decreases the propofol blood concentration at which patients respond to command (CP50-awake) in neurosurgical patients. Forty patients were anesthetized with alfentanil 50 microg/kg i.v., nitrous oxide, propofol target-controlled infusion, and rocuronium. The bispectral index (version 3.12) was monitored continuously. Patients were randomized to a core temperature of 34 degrees C or 37 degrees C. At the end of surgery, neuromuscular blockade was reversed, nitrous oxide was ceased, and propofol was infused to achieve a blood target determined by the previous patient's response. Responsiveness to command was assessed 15 min later. Results were analyzed with logistic regression models; P < 0.05 was considered statistically significant. The CP50-awake of propofol was 3.05 microg/mL (95% confidence interval, 2.34-3.66). Propofol concentration, but not core temperature, predicted loss of response to command (odds ratio, 11.76; 95% confidence interval, 2.40-57.63; P < 0.01). Core temperature did not alter the relationship between bispectral index and response to command. Propofol infusion regimens may not require adjustment during mild hypothermia.

IMPLICATIONS

Neurosurgical patients may be allowed to become mildly hypothermic during anesthesia in an effort to provide brain protection. Propofol maintenance infusion doses may not require adjustment in these patients.

Esmolol and anesthetic requirement for loss of responsiveness during propofol anesthesia

The administration of esmolol decreases the propofol blood concentration, preventing movement after skin incision during propofol/morphine/nitrous oxide anesthesia. However, interaction with esmolol has not been tested when propofol is infused alone. Accordingly, we tested the hypothesis that esmolol decreases the propofol blood concentration, preventing response to command (CP50-awake) when propofol is infused alone in healthy patients presenting for minor surgery. With approval and consent, we studied 30 healthy patients, who were randomized to esmolol bolus (1 mg/kg) and then infusion (250 microg x kg(-1) x min(-1)) or placebo. Five minutes later, a target-controlled infusion of propofol was commenced. Ten minutes later, responsiveness was assessed by a blinded observer. Oxygen saturation, heart rate, and noninvasive arterial blood pressure were recorded every 2 min. Arterial blood samples were taken at 5 and 10 min of propofol infusion for propofol assay. Results were analyzed with a generalized linear regression model: P <0.05 was considered statistically significant. The probability of response to command decreased with increasing propofol blood concentration (CP50-awake = 3.42 microg/mL). Esmolol did not alter the relative risk of response to command. We conclude that the previously observed effect of esmolol on propofol CP50 was not caused by an interaction between these two drugs.

IMPLICATIONS

There is no evidence to suggest that esmolol, an ultra-short-acting cardioselective beta-blocker, affects anesthetic requirement for loss of responsiveness during propofol anesthesia.

A serosurvey evaluation of the school-based measles 'catch-up' immunisation campaign in Victorian school-aged children

OBJECTIVE

To determine the proportion of Victorian primary school students protected against measles infection one year after the completion of the measles 'catch-up' immunisation campaign of 1998 and to compare this with the proportion of year 9 and 10 (aged 14-16 years) students.

DESIGN & SETTING

Three-stage random cluster survey in Victorian primary and secondary schools.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Proportion of primary and year 9 and 10 secondary school students protected against measles infection one year after the completion of the mass 'catch-up' immunisation campaign.

SECONDARY OUTCOMES

the proportion of both primary and year 9 and 10 secondary school students protected against both mumps and rubella.

RESULTS

Of 1,037 Victorian primary and 2,357 years 9 and 10 secondary school students invited to participate in this study, 403 (39%) and 752 (32%) respectively provided a blood specimen for serological testing for antibodies against measles, mumps and rubella. 94.8% (95% confidence interval, 91.5, 96.9) of primary school and 93.1% (90.9, 94.8) of year 9 and 10 students were protected against measles infection.

CONCLUSION

One year after the completion of the school-based measles 'catch-up' immunisation campaign the level of protection in Victorian primary school aged students is sufficient to prevent the continuing circulation of measles virus within this age group. The proportion of year 9 and 10 secondary school students protected against measles is also probably sufficient to prevent continuing circulation of wild type virus in Victoria, even though this age group was not specifically targeted by the 'catch-up' campaign.

The use of pre-cannulation local anaesthetic and factors affecting pain perception in the emergency department setting

STUDY OBJECTIVE

To determine whether the use of subcutaneous local anaesthetic (lignocaine) is associated with a reduction in cannulation pain in the emergency department setting.

METHODS

Patients over 18 with a Glasgow Coma Score (GCS) of 15 and conversational English were allocated into one of three groups: Group 1 were cannulated after routine skin preparation; Group 2 received 1% lignocaine 0.1 ml via a 27 gauge needle and diabetic syringe before cannulation; Group 3 were injected as for Group 2 but saline was substituted for lignocaine. The cannulator and subject were blinded to the ampoule. The pain was measured using a 100 mm visual analogue scale.

SETTING

A large urban university hospital emergency department.

RESULTS

366 patients were recruited and the data on 322 analysed. Those receiving lignocaine before cannulation reported lower pain scores (1.9 cm) than the saline (4.1 cm) or immediate cannulation (3.6 cm) groups, p<0.0001. Other factors such as the experience of cannulator, patient characteristics, the presence of a painful underlying condition and cannula size did not effect pain scores.

CONCLUSION

The use of lignocaine before cannulation reduced cannulation pain in the emergency department setting. Other factors examined did not influence pain perception.

Audit and comprehensive health assessment programme in the primary healthcare of adults with intellectual disability: a pilot study

International research has demonstrated significant shortcomings in the health of adults with intellectual disability (ID). Because general practitioners (GPs) are the main providers of primary healthcare for this population, strategies to improve general practice care are an important aspect of rectifying these shortcomings. The present pilot study aimed to determine the effect of various interventions on health maintenance activities and to assess their acceptability to GPs, with a view to informing larger scale studies. The GPs were recruited through an earlier questionnaire-based postal survey. The GPs identified all their adult patients with ID, then obtained consent for participation from three patients randomly selected by the investigators. The GPs completed two self-evaluation forms and case note audits 12 months apart, read a synopsis of the relevant literature provided by the researchers, and completed a comprehensive health assessment (CHA) of their three patients. Forty-five GPs agreed to participate in the CHA programme (CHAP), and 15 completed the project. Thirty-eight patients completed the project. The number of patient-GP dyads who completed the project was too small to demonstrate statistically significant changes in health issues over time. The GPs found that the synopsis of the literature was the best intervention for increasing knowledge and was also the most practical to use in general practice. The CHAP was the intervention that prompted the most action from the GP which would not have been undertaken otherwise. The CHAP appeared to provide a superior review process compared to the other interventions used in the present study. The numbers of health maintenance activities found to be overdue and the number of health issues detected as a result of the process were considerable. The CHAP served as a communication tool and an educative instrument, providing a basis for future studies and strategies to improve the general practice care of adults with ID.

Predictors of non-attendance for second round mammography in an Australian mammographic screening programme

OBJECTIVE

To determine the socioeconomic, cultural, and clinical predictors of non-attendance for second round mammography.

DESIGN/PARTICIPANTS

Retrospective cohort study of 121 889 women aged 50-69 years who attended for first mammography screening in the BreastScreen Victoria programme in 1995/1996 and who were recommended to be invited for routine biennial mammography. Women were considered to be non-attenders if they had not attended for rescreening within 27 months of their initial screening. Relative risk (RR) was used to compare categories for non-attendance for second screening, and a multivariate model was fitted to adjust for possible confounding.

SETTING

BreastScreen Victoria, a population based mammographic screening programme, which offers free biennial mammography to all women 40 years and older. The programme specifically targets women aged 50-69 years.

RESULTS

In the multivariate analysis, women from non-English speaking backgrounds were more likely not to attend for second round screening (RR ranged from 1.18 to 1.77). Indigenous women (RR 2.02, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.61 to 2.54) and women who reported either significant symptoms (RR 1.90, 95% CI 1.76 to 2.05) or other breast symptoms (RR 2.25, 95% CI 2.15 to 2.36) at the time of first round screening were also more likely not to attend for second round screening.

CONCLUSIONS

Women from non-English speaking backgrounds, indigenous women, and women who report symptoms at the time of first screening are more likely to not attend for second round screening. It is important to investigate why these women do not attend for second round screening so that services can be more appropriately tailored to their needs.

Institute for Health Care Improvement Collaborative Trial to improve process times in an Australian emergency department

This study describes an Australian emergency department's (ED) experience with a quality improvement methodology from the USA. The Institute for Health Care Improvement (IHI) conducts collaboratives between clinical groups with similar interests, in this case ED. Their quality improvement model is described. Our involvement with the IHI showed the model to be transferable outside the USA. In applying the model to operational and clinical projects we were successful in meeting our goals to reduce clinical times: for time to analgesia (P= 0.34), time to thrombolysis (P= 0.30) and time to antibiotics in neutropenic patients (P= 0.015). We were unable to reach statistical significance in improvements due to the small sample sizes and sampling techniques. Changes in operational times were not clinically significant but almost reached statistical significance (e.g. median total length of stay in the ED fell 4 min (P= 0.06)). The near statistical significance of a small change was due to the large numbers of patients sampled.

A double-blind, placebo-controlled trial of diclofenac/misoprostol in Alzheimer's disease

BACKGROUND

Previous studies suggest a potential benefit from nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) in Alzheimer's disease (AD). Prescribing NSAIDs, however, carries the risk of significant gastrointestinal adverse events.

OBJECTIVES

To study whether treatment with an NSAID prevents expected decline in AD patients and evaluate whether co-administration of the gastro-protective agent, misoprostol, with an NSAID is safe in AD.

METHODS

The efficacy and safety of diclofenac in combination with misoprostol (D/M) was evaluated in 41 patients with mild-moderate AD in a prospective 25-week, randomized, double-blind placebo-controlled trial. Efficacy measures comprised the Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale cognitive and noncognitive subsections, Global Deterioration Scale, Clinical Global Impression of Change, Mini-Mental State Examination, Instrumental Activities of Daily Living, Physical Self-Maintenance Scale, and a caregiver-rated Global Impression of Change.

RESULTS

There were no group differences with any of the outcome measures in an intent-to-treat analysis. There were some nonsignificant trends for the placebo group to have deteriorated more than the D/M-treated patients. Withdrawal rates were 12 of 24 in the D/M group and 2 of 17 in the placebo group. There were no serious drug-related adverse events.

CONCLUSIONS

This pilot study, with small treatment numbers, did not demonstrate a significant effect of NSAID treatment in AD, but the trends observed justify further investigations with a larger number of participants. D/M is safe in AD patients, but its tolerability is not optimal.

NSAIDs and faecal blood loss in elderly patients with osteoarthritis: is plasma half-life relevant?

BACKGROUND

Nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) vary in their degree of gastrointestinal (GI) toxicity. NSAIDs with longer half-lives are of particular concern as they may be more toxic in the elderly.

AIM

To compare the GI toxicity, by measurement of faecal blood loss, of short, intermediate and long half-life NSAID treatments compared with control in elderly patients with osteoarthritis.

METHODS

Twenty-three patients, mean age 69 years, with osteoarthritis requiring NSAID treatment, received treatment with diclofenac 100 mg/day, naproxen 750 mg/day and piroxicam 20 mg/day, representing a short, medium and long half-life NSAID respectively, in a double-blind, randomised, three way, cross-over block design. In each case, a three week washout control phase was followed by active treatment phases of two weeks each with three week washout between treatment phases.

RESULTS

Faecal blood loss, collected over 72 hours at the end of each treatment phase, was measured by 51Cr-labelled erythrocyte method. Comparison was made of mean 24 hour faecal blood loss with each treatment compared with control using repeated measures analysis of variance. Eighteen patients completed all phases of the study. Three patients were withdrawn due to GI bleeding; two during diclofenac treatment and one during treatment with piroxicam. Mean 24 hour faecal blood loss with diclofenac (0.53 mL +/- 0.21) was not significantly different from control (0.28 mL +/- 0.06), whereas it was significantly increased with naproxen (2.76 mL +/- 2.22) and piroxicam (1.16 mL +/- 0.62), p = 0.0013.

CONCLUSION

A short half-life NSAID was associated with lower GI toxicity than a medium and long half-life NSAID, as measured by faecal blood loss.

High dose cytosine arabinoside is a major risk factor for the development of hepatosplenic candidiasis in patients with leukemia

A retrospective study of hepatosplenic candidiasis in patients with acute leukemia from a single centre was performed. The significance of age, sex, type of leukemia, dose of cytosine arabinoside (Ara-C), duration of neutropenia, steroid use and period of therapeutic antibiotics in the development of hepatosplenic candidiasis was analyzed, using logistic regression analysis. Nine of 51 patients had hepatosplenic candidiasis. Ara-C use was highly associated with the development of hepatosplenic candidiasis (p = 0.001); with a high association with a higher dose (p < 0.0001). On the basis of these results consideration should be given to further trial of antifungal prophylaxis for patients receiving high dose Ara-C.

Does occupational exposure to brown coal dust cause a decline in lung function?

OBJECTIVES

To determine if the rate of change in forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1) in subjects with high exposure to Latrobe Valley brown coal dust was significantly greater than the rate of change among subjects with low exposure.

METHODS

A retrospective dynamic cohort design with variable time windows. This study was conducted over a period of 14 years from 1980 to 1994 and used data collected by the State Electricity Commission (SEC) Lung Function Unit for an asbestos surveillance programme. The subjects were exposed to low, medium, or high levels of coal dust. Basic spirometry with wedge bellows spirometers was used to assess lung function. A general linear model (GLM) was used to assess the effects of smoking and exposure to coal dust upon the change in forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1) while adjusting for age and height.

RESULTS

The mean (95% confidence interval (95% CI) rate of decline in FEV1 was 40 (36 to 44) ml/year. Age was a significant predictor of change. A significant effect was found for smoking (P = 0.02) and for exposure to coal dust (P = 0.008). The only significant difference with exposure to coal dust was between the high and mixed exposure categories.

CONCLUSION

There is no convincing evidence of excessive decline in FEV1 with exposure to coal dust > 0.75 mg/m3. The absence of a dose response relation provides some evidence against a causal relation. On the basis of this study, reduction of the exposure standards currently applied to brown coal dust in the Victorian electricity industry is not warranted to prevent respiratory disease.

Pulmonary allograft ischemic time: an important predictor of survival after lung transplantation

BACKGROUND

Traditionally organ availability in human lung transplantation has been limited by aiming to keep the graft ischemic time under 6 hours. To maximize organ supply in a country with a widely spread population, we have routinely procured organs beyond this time. Our experience outlines the clinical consequences of a prolonged allograft ischemic time.

METHODS

Between 1990 and 1994 we performed 106 lung or heart-lung transplantations. The average graft ischemic time was 323 +/- 93 minutes. Lung preservation included a prostacyclin infusion (40 to 80 ng/kg/min for 10 minutes) and cold modified Euro-Collins solution flush. Organs were stored and transported on ice at 6 degrees to 10 degrees C. Graft ischemic time, transplant type, age, gender, cytomegalovirus status, and anesthetic time were subject to multivariate Cox regression analysis.

RESULTS

Survival and graft ischemic times for heart-lung (n = 38), single lung (n = 33), and bilateral lung transplantation (n = 35) were not significantly different. Graft ischemic time was an independent predictor of survival (p < 0.01). Subgroup analysis notes the effect to be most pronounced beyond 5 hours (p = 0.02, hazard ratio 3.44, confidence interval 1.12 to 9.8).

CONCLUSIONS

Pulmonary allograft ischemic time beyond 5 hours does not result in acceptable outcomes although survival is reduced. Attempts should be made to minimize graft ischemic times with careful coordination of transport and personnel.

Extended hospital stays with increasing age: the impact of an acute geriatric unit

OBJECTIVES

To examine the association between increasing age and extended length of hospitalisation, and the impact of an acute geriatric unit on this association.

DESIGN

Retrospective analysis of concurrently collected data of patients admitted to three general medical units, one of which was an acute geriatric unit.

SETTING

Alfred Hospital, Melbourne (a tertiary referral teaching hospital), between 1 July 1993 to 30 June 1994.

PATIENTS

Those classified into the same diagnosis-related groups (DRGs) as the 15 most common DRGs of the acute geriatric unit.

OUTCOME MEASURE

Incidence of patients with extended lengths of stay ("high outliers"), analysed by age, medical unit and DRG.

RESULTS

Of 3499 patients discharged from the hospital with the 15 study DRGs, 303 patients (8.6%) were from the acute geriatric unit, and 274 and 300 patients (7.8% and 8.5%) were from the two other general medical units, respectively. Patients in the acute geriatric unit were significantly older (median age group, 75-79; age range, 18-98) than patients in all other hospital units (median age group, 60-64; age range, 18-97) (P < 0.0001). Analysis of patients with respiratory and cardiovascular DRGs admitted to all general medical units compared with specialty units showed this age discrepancy was even more marked for patients aged over 85. There was an increased likelihood (P < 0.001) of an extended length of stay for patients aged over 55. The incidence of high outliers for comparable DRGs was lower for patients cared for by the acute geriatric unit, compared with general medical units. In the acute geriatric unit, unlike the overall trend, the proportion of high outliers did not increase with age.

CONCLUSIONS

The specialised management of acute geriatric medical units can counteract the trend towards increased incidence of high outliers with increasing age, despite significantly older patients.

The Chi square test: an introduction

The Chi square test is a statistical test which measures the association between two categorical variables. A working knowledge of tests of this nature are important for the chiropractor and osteopath in order to be able to critically appraise the literature.

Anterior cruciate ligament tears: evaluation of multiple signs with MR imaging

PURPOSE

To assess the accuracy and reliability of multiple signs of anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) tears with magnetic resonance (MR) imaging.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Two independent reviewers retrospectively evaluated 103 sets of ACL MR images for the presence of 22 signs of ACL tears. There were 43 patients with ACL tears and 58 patients whose ACLs were proved to be intact at surgery. Although variable imaging protocols were used, T1- and T2-weighted images were obtained in nearly all patients. Direct nonvisualization, intrinisc ACL abnormalities, associated osseous and cartilage abnormalities, and other indirect signs were evaluated.

RESULTS

Discontinuity of the ACL in the sagittal and axial planes and failure of the fascicles to parallel the Blumensaat line were the most accurate signs of a tear. Discontinuity of the ACL, disruption of fascicles, a posterolateral tibial bruise, a buckled posterior cruciate ligament, positive posterior cruciate ligament line sign and positive posterior femoral line sign were the best predictors of an ACL tear at logistic regression analysis.

CONCLUSION

Signs other than nonvisualization of the ACL are good predictors of an ACL tear.

Human papillomavirus infection and its relationship to recent and distant sexual partners

OBJECTIVE

To determine the relation between the detection of genital human papillomavirus (HPV) DNA and the number of new sexual partners in the last year, 1-5 years, and 5-10 years.

METHODS

In a cross-sectional study, 298 women collected tampon specimens and completed self-answer questionnaires on the known risk factors for HPV infection, including the number of sexual partners during the last 1, 5, and 10 years. The tampons were analyzed for the presence of HPV DNA by polymerase chain reaction using L1 consensus primers.

RESULTS

Ninety-two (30.9%) tampons were positive for HPV DNA. In univariate analysis, the presence of HPV DNA was associated with a younger age, single marital status, a previously abnormal or currently abnormal Papanicolaou smear, and one or more new sexual partners in the last year, 1-5 years, and 5-10 years. The presence of HPV DNA was not associated with education level, past pregnancy, current or past oral contraceptive use, or the age at first intercourse. In multivariate analysis, only the number of sexual partners during the last year and 1-5 years, and a previously abnormal Papanicolaou smear were associated with HPV.

CONCLUSION

The presence of HPV DNA is best predicted by the number of new sexual partners in the last 5 years. Transiently detectable HPV DNA is one possible explanation for this observation.

Comparison of ultrasound and blood pool scintigraphy in the diagnosis of lower limb deep venous thrombosis

We report a prospective, blinded comparison of compression ultrasound (US) and Tc-99m erythrocyte-labelled venous blood pool scintigraphy (BPS) in patients presenting with symptoms of deep venous thrombosis (DVT). Contrast venography (CV) was used as the gold standard. Ninety-eight lower limbs of 76 patients were examined. DVT was present at CV in 38 of 98 limbs and was isolated to the calf veins in eight. Sensitivity and specificity of ultrasound for femoropopliteal thrombus were 81.5% and 96% and of venous blood pool scintigraphy were 55% and 96%. For deep venous thrombosis in the whole limb sensitivity and specificity of ultrasound were 74% and 90% and of venous blood pool scintigraphy were 61% and 88%. In the calf sensitivity and specificity of US were 61% and 94% and of venous blood pool scintigraphy were 61% and 89%. Excluding equivocal venous blood pool scintigraphy results, the predictive values of a positive and negative venous blood pool scintigraphy study for the whole limb were 84% and 86%. The predictive values of a positive and negative ultrasound where the examination was adequate were 82% and 86%. US is a more sensitive alternative to CV than BPS for femoropopliteal DVT. When neither US nor CV can be performed, BPS remains a useful initial test for DVT, provided it is unequivocally positive or negative.

On the subject of hypothesis testing

In this paper, the definition of a statistical hypothesis is discussed, and the considerations which need to be addressed when testing a hypothesis. In particular, the p-value, significance level, and power of a test are reviewed. Finally, the often quoted confidence interval is given a brief introduction.